Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (more bullish, with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently) [2] - Fuel oil: ★★★ (more bullish, with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently) [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ (more bullish, with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently) [2] - Asphalt: ★☆★ (biased towards bullish, with a driving force for upward trend but limited operability on the market) [2] Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical premium caused by the US-Venezuela conflict is limited and difficult to change the downward trend of the oil price center. The current crude oil market is in a stage of inventory accumulation with oversupply, and the oil price will still be dominated by the supply-demand pattern and maintain a downward trend [3] - Fuel oil follows the weakening of crude oil on the cost side, but the Venezuelan crude oil supply disruption may indirectly support the high-sulfur fuel oil market, and its crack spread may perform relatively strongly; low-sulfur fuel oil continues to face the pressure of loose supply and is expected to remain weak [4] - The asphalt futures strengthened against the trend, mainly supported by the expectation of tight raw material supply. The continuous shortage of Venezuelan crude oil supply and the increase in alternative raw material costs have pushed up the expected production cost of asphalt, which is the core driver of the current price increase [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - After the holiday, the external crude oil futures did not rise due to the escalation of the US-Venezuela conflict, and the domestic SC crude oil futures fell by more than 3%. The geopolitical conflict has limited and unsustainable impact on oil prices, and the current market is in an inventory accumulation stage [3] - In 2025, Venezuela's oil production accounted for only about 0.94%-0.96% of the global total, and its potential supply interruption is not enough to drive oil prices up in the long term [3] - The US, IEA, and OPEC all predict that there will be significant inventory accumulation pressure in the global crude oil market in January 2026. The US may take over Venezuelan oil resources, and if sanctions are relaxed later, Venezuelan production may even increase [3] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - During the holiday, the US military strike on Venezuela led to a short-term halt in its energy exports including oil and high-sulfur fuel oil. However, due to the relatively limited export volume, it is difficult to change the current oversupply situation in the crude oil market, and fuel oil followed the weakening of crude oil [4] - The interruption of Venezuelan crude oil supply may affect the asphalt production of domestic refineries, and some refineries may increase the procurement of alternative raw materials such as fuel oil, which will indirectly support the high-sulfur fuel oil market, and its crack spread may perform relatively strongly [4] - Low-sulfur fuel oil continues to face the pressure of loose supply due to the recovery of overseas supply and is expected to remain weak [4] Asphalt - The asphalt futures strengthened against the trend under the background of the escalation of the Venezuelan situation, mainly supported by the expectation of tight raw material supply [5] - Venezuelan heavy crude oil (Merey oil) is an important raw material source for domestic refineries. Since December 2025, the US seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers has led to a sharp decrease in the shipment volume to China, which is expected to significantly impact the domestic asphalt raw material supply in February and later [5] - If domestic refineries turn to Iranian heavy oil or Canadian TMX crude oil as substitutes, the cost will be significantly higher than that of Venezuelan crude oil. The continuous shortage of Venezuelan crude oil supply and the increase in alternative raw material costs have pushed up the expected production cost of asphalt, which is the core driver of the current price increase [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - From December 29, 2025, to January 2, 2026, global geopolitical risks increased due to the US military strike on Venezuela. Globally, the stock market was divided, the bond market and commodities declined, and in terms of dollar - denominated assets, bonds > stocks > commodities. In China, the stock market was divided, the bond market oscillated, commodities declined, and stocks > bonds > commodities. Short - term attention should be paid to changes in geopolitical risk factors [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Major Asset Overall Performance: Stock Market Divided, Bond Market and Commodities Declined - **Global Stock Market Overview**: Global major stock markets showed mixed performance. The US stock market performed poorly, and emerging markets outperformed developed markets. The VIX index stabilized at a low level weekly. For example, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 2.30%, while the MSCI Developed Markets Index fell 0.63% [8][12] - **Global Bond Market Overview**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 5BP to 4.19%. The bond market declined weekly, and globally, high - yield bonds > government bonds > credit bonds [12] - **Global Foreign Exchange Market Overview**: The US dollar index rose 0.43% weekly. Major non - US currencies generally depreciated against the US dollar, while the RMB exchange rate was oscillating strongly [14] - **Global Commodity Market Overview**: Geopolitical factors did not significantly support international oil prices, which oscillated weekly. International gold and silver prices dropped significantly due to increased margin requirements. Most agricultural product prices fell, while non - ferrous metal prices rose [14] 3.2 Domestic Major Asset Performance: Stock Market Divided, Bond Market Oscillating, Commodities Declined - **Domestic Stock Market Overview**: A - share major broad - based indices mostly declined, but the trading volume increased. Large - cap blue - chip stocks were relatively resistant to decline. The petroleum and petrochemical, and military industries led the gains, while public utilities and food and beverage sectors performed poorly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.13% [18][20] - **Domestic Bond Market Overview**: The central bank's net injection in the open - market operations was 117.1 billion yuan, and the money market was relatively stable. The bond market oscillated weakly weekly, with corporate bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [21] - **Domestic Commodity Market Overview**: The domestic commodity market declined overall, with precious metals performing poorly [21] 3.3 Major Asset Price Outlook - Geopolitical risk factors have increased in the short term, and attention should be paid to their impact on major asset prices [23]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2026年01月05日 (原油) 假期结束后首日外盘油价震荡。假期期间美委局势引发全球关注，3日美国抓获委内瑞拉总统，特朗 普要求美国石油公司在委内投资以恢复石油基础设施。美国对委内打击目标在于快速实现政权更迭 后接管委内石油资源，目前委内石油产量占全球仅约1%。尽管成员国地缘冲突持续升级，政佩克仍 在4日重申将在第一季度暂停增产。202601全球石油在供过于求主基调下油价中枢下移趋势难以扣 转。 【贵金属】 节日期间金银波动温和，铂肥大幅反弹。美国对委内瑞拉军事行动突显全球局势不确定性，不过事 件影响级别暂时有限，还需关注后续演绎。贵金属处于急涨后的阶段性调整阶段,短期谨慎参与, 波动率下降后维持多头思路。 【铜】 伦铜记录位置震荡，市场将首先消化委内瑞拉局势影响，尤其关注贵金属短线交投情绪。LME0-3月 现货升水38美元。因铜价年底涨势快，LME市场有较大规模已实值看涨期权,1月中上旬关注期权头 寸变动。等待海外机构对铜价预期表现的再修正。延续前期期权组合策略，关注炼厂排产、社库变 动，倘盘面缩量可能倾向价格将继续下调。 【铝】 假日期 ...

Report Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Methanol (★☆☆), PVC (★☆☆) [1] - **Bearish**: None - **Neutral**: Propylene, Polypropylene, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Bottle Chip, Urea, Caustic Soda, Soda Ash, Glass (White Stars) [1] Core Views - The supply - demand fundamentals of the chemical industry are complex, with different products showing various trends. Some products face short - term pressure but have medium - to long - term improvement expectations, while others are affected by factors such as production capacity, inventory, and downstream demand [2][3][4] - Different products have different driving factors, including raw materials, production capacity changes, and downstream demand rhythms [4] Summary by Categories Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures oscillated. Downstream polypropylene demand recovery is limited due to cost and device status. Chemical downstream factories' procurement improved slightly [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures moved narrowly. Polyethylene supply may increase, and downstream demand is weak. Polypropylene production is expected to rise slightly, and short - term demand is weak [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures were weak. Port inventory is high, but there are expectations of supply - demand improvement. Consider long - spread arbitrage in the medium term [3] - Styrene futures moved narrowly. Cost has no obvious positive impact, and there is an inventory build - up expectation [3] Polyester - PX prices may adjust in the short term but have strong medium - term expectations. PTA is mainly driven by raw materials [4] - Ethylene glycol has a weak short - term fundamental, but may improve in the second quarter. It is under long - term pressure [4] - Short fiber has a good long - term supply - demand pattern. Bottle chip is affected by production capacity and cost [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures were strong. Import volume is expected to decrease, and the port may enter a de - stocking cycle in the medium term [5] - Urea supply may increase later, and the post - holiday market may decline slightly [5] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC futures were strong. Supply may increase, demand is low, and inventory pressure is high. It may move in a range [6] - Caustic soda futures declined. Supply pressure is high, and demand growth is limited [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash futures moved narrowly. Supply pressure is large, and there is a long - term supply - demand surplus risk [7] - Glass futures oscillated. The industry is de - capacitying, and demand is insufficient [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicates a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆, suggests a short - term equilibrium in the market trend and poor trading operability [1] - Alumina: Not clearly rated in a standard way [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆, implies a bullish - leaning trend with limited trading operability [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆, shows a short - term balanced market trend and poor operability [1] - Tin: ★☆☆, indicates a bullish - leaning trend with limited trading opportunities [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Not clearly rated in a standard way [1] - Industrial Silicon: Not clearly rated in a standard way [1] - Polysilicon: Not clearly rated in a standard way [1] Core Views of the Report - The prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by multiple factors such as supply, demand, cost, and policy, showing different trends. Some metals may continue to fluctuate, while others may face price adjustments or trend changes [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - The Shanghai copper futures closed with a negative candlestick in a volatile manner. The spot copper price was 98,820 yuan, with a Shanghai discount of 190 yuan. The LME market has a large number of in - the - money call options. After the holiday, wait for overseas institutions to revise their copper price expectations. Continue the previous options combination strategy, and pay attention to smelter production schedules, social inventory changes, and trading volume shrinkage, as the price may continue to decline [2] Aluminum and Alumina - The Shanghai aluminum futures rose, and the spot discounts in East, Central, and South China widened. The fundamentals of the aluminum market lack driving force, but the upward trend following the sector remains. Long positions can be held based on the 40 - day moving average, and pay attention to the resistance at 23,000 yuan. The price of Baotai ADC12 spot increased by 100 yuan to 22,000 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is still tight, and tax adjustments may increase costs in some areas. The seasonal spread between cast aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum is weaker than in previous years. The alumina market is in significant surplus. With the decline in bauxite prices, costs have room to fall, and there is still profit in cash - cost accounting. In the short term, the decline of alumina spot prices is slowing down, but medium - term stabilization requires large - scale production cuts [3] Zinc - The TC is at a low level, smelter maintenance continues, and the import window is closed. The supply pressure of zinc has weakened, and the overall rebound trend remains. The consumption outlook for January is moderately optimistic. With the start of the 14th Five - Year Plan, there are high expectations for a good start. National subsidies may return, and there is still demand for downstream pre - holiday stockpiling. Consumption may not be weak in the off - season, but production is still a drag, constraining the upside of Shanghai zinc. Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [4] Aluminum (Another Section) - Maintenance of primary aluminum delivery brand smelters continues, and the SMM aluminum social inventory is less than 20,000 tons, supporting the price increase. However, battery enterprises conduct year - end inventory checks and suspend spot procurement for 3 - 7 days. Shanghai lead faces obvious pressure around 17,500 yuan/ton. The aluminum price is stronger in the domestic market than in the overseas market, and the spot import window is open. Affected by low - priced overseas aluminum ingots, Shanghai aluminum is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom near the cost, with a price range of 16,800 - 17,500 yuan/ton [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The nickel price rose and then fell, with active market trading. The Indonesian Nickel Mining Association reduced the nickel ore quota and will revise the mineral reference price formula in early 2026. Near the end of the year, the downstream's purchasing intention weakened, and the continuous high spot premium reduced traders' willingness to hold goods. The spot trading was relatively quiet. In the stainless - steel market, the rising ferro - nickel price pushed up the cost, but the overall profit was restored. The previous stainless - steel production cuts had limited impact, the social inventory decreased, and the downstream's purchasing intention was mainly in the form of more inquiries. The high - nickel ferro - nickel was quoted at 912 yuan per nickel point, and the upstream price began to show a rebound transmission. In the short term, it is still dominated by policy sentiment. The pure nickel inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 58,000 tons, the nickel - iron inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 29,300 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 30,000 tons to 892,000 tons. Due to policy disturbances in the nickel market, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [7] Tin - The trading volume of Shanghai tin futures decreased to the level at the beginning of December. The spot tin was reported at 326,450 yuan, with a real - time premium of 1,800 yuan. There is no new news about the geopolitical situation recently. Pay attention to the mining conference that may be held around the New Year. The volatility has converged from a high level. Hold the 350,000 sell - call options again and observe the adjustment range [8] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium price opened high and then fell, with active market trading but large differences. Some holders' previous goods have been pre - ordered, and there are frequent inquiries. However, the mid - and downstream's acceptance of high prices is limited. They have sufficient pre - holiday stockpiling and are cautious about high prices. The overall market trading is relatively quiet. The total market inventory decreased by 700 tons to 110,000 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 200 tons to 18,000 tons, the downstream inventory decreased by 1,600 tons to 40,000 tons, and the trader inventory increased by 1,200 tons to 52,000 tons. The inventory in the mid - stream is relatively high, providing some support to the spot market. The latest Australian ore price is 1,565 US dollars, and the ore price remains strong. Technically, the lithium price has entered the trend - ending stage, and risk prevention should be noted [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly lower. Recently, some silicon enterprises have reduced production, but the overall scale is less than expected. On the demand side, the polysilicon production in January is expected to decrease slightly month - on - month, and the operating rate of organic silicon is expected to continue to decline under the implementation of emission - reduction policies. The latest SMM industrial silicon social inventory is 555,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons month - on - month, and the Xinjiang factory inventory still has the pressure of inventory accumulation. Overall, the recent strengthening of the industrial silicon futures price and the divergence between the futures and spot prices are due to the expected large - scale production cuts at the end of December. However, the implementation is slow, and the demand is under marginal pressure. The trend may turn to oscillatory consolidation, and further observe the changes in Xinjiang's production [10] Polysilicon - The trading activity of polysilicon futures has declined. After a pre - holiday correction, it turned to oscillation. On the spot side, the price of N - type compound feedstock remains stable at 50,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, the polysilicon production in January is expected to decrease slightly month - on - month. However, compared with the recent production cuts in the silicon wafer sector, the polysilicon market still faces the pressure of inventory accumulation. In the expected dimension, the industry's anti - involution trend continues, and policy support is sustainable. With stricter trading supervision, the futures price is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation [11]

| | 国长期货 | | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年12月31日 | | 黄金 | 白银 ななな | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 铂 | 文文文 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 【星级说明】红色星级代表预判趋势性上涨,绿色星级代表预判趋势性下跌 隔夜贵金属延续调整，日内波动仍大。美联储会议纪要显示官员分歧严重，不过大多数与会者认为如果通胀 如预期随时间下降，进一步下调利率可能是适当的。美联储宽松前景以及地缘风险支撑贵金属强势,但资金 推动下短期内涨幅过大,阶段性调整在所难免, 铂把连续大幅度下挫, 主因前期多头资金拥挤,元旦假期前 获利盘出局，盘面呈 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆, indicating a short-term balance of long/short trends with poor operability on the current market, suggesting waiting and seeing [1] - Hot Roll: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the market [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆★, not clearly defined in the star - rating description [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★★☆, indicating a clear long - position trend, and the market is fermenting [1] - Silicon Iron: ★★☆, same as above [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of steel products is gradually easing, but the overall domestic demand is weak. The market is in a short - term range - bound, and attention should be paid to macro - policy changes [2] - Iron ore has a large supply pressure, but with the sign of iron - water production bottoming out and the expectation of winter - storage replenishment by steel mills, the short - term price is supported, and the future trend is expected to be volatile [3] - Coke and coking coal have abundant carbon - element supply, and although the downstream demand has some resilience, the steel mills still have a strong willingness to suppress prices. After the price corrects the premium/discount, it still faces fundamental pressure, and there is intensified capital game on the market due to the expectation of stimulus policies [4][6] - For silicon manganese, affected by the rebound of the market, the spot price of manganese ore has increased. The port inventory of manganese ore has a structural problem, and the supply and demand are relatively fragile. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices [7] - For silicon iron, the market expects a decrease in power cost and semi - coke price. The overall demand is still resilient, the supply has decreased significantly, and it is recommended to try long positions at low prices [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - The thread market is in a weak and volatile state in the off - season. The apparent demand has declined, the production has increased slightly, and the inventory has continued to decline. The hot - roll demand has recovered, the production has increased slightly, and the de - stocking has accelerated, but the pressure still needs to be alleviated. The supply pressure is gradually easing, and the profit of steel mills has improved marginally [2] - The real - estate investment decline has continued to expand, the investment growth rate of infrastructure and manufacturing has continued to decline, the domestic demand is still weak overall, the steel export remains at a high level, and the December PMI has rebounded to 50.1, but the sustainability needs to be observed [2] Iron Ore - The global shipment of iron ore has increased month - on - month, reaching a new high this year. The domestic arrival volume has decreased month - on - month but is expected to increase in the future. The port inventory has continued to accumulate at a high level at the beginning of the week [3] - The profitability of steel mills has improved recently, the iron - water production last week was basically stable, and it is expected to be at the bottom of the stage, with little possibility of further significant reduction in the future [3] Coke - The price has oscillated downward during the day. The fourth round of price reduction has been fully implemented, the coking profit is average, and the daily production has slightly decreased. The inventory has increased slightly, and the downstream purchases on demand in small quantities, while the purchasing intention of traders is average [4] Coking Coal - The price has oscillated during the day. The production of coking coal mines has slightly decreased. Some mines have reduced or stopped production at the end of the year due to factors such as safety production and completion of the annual production task. The spot auction transactions are okay, the transaction price has increased slightly, and the terminal inventory has slightly increased [6] Silicon Manganese - The price has oscillated during the day. Driven by the market rebound, the spot price of manganese ore has increased. The port inventory of manganese ore has a structural problem, and the balance is relatively fragile. The smelting end may change the manganese - ore formula, and the demand for cheaper semi - carbonate ore may increase [7] - The iron - water production has declined seasonally, the weekly production of silicon manganese has decreased slightly, and the inventory has decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti - involution" [7] Silicon Iron - The price has oscillated downward during the day. The market expects an increase in coal supply, which may lead to a decrease in power cost and semi - coke price. The iron - water production has rebounded to a high - level range, the export demand has decreased to above 20,000 tons, and the marginal impact is not significant [8] - The production of magnesium metal has increased month - on - month, the secondary demand has increased marginally, the overall demand is still resilient, the supply has decreased significantly, and the inventory has decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti - involution" [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (more bullish trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity) [2] - Fuel oil: ★★★ (more bullish trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity) [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ (more bullish trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity) [2] - Asphalt: ★★★ (more bullish trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity) [2] Core Views - The current fundamental pattern of oil prices is still dominated by oversupply, leading to a downward shift in the oil price center [3] - Geopolitical factors provide short - term support for fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil, but do not change the oversupply situation; the market is expected to remain weak [4] - The commercial inventory of asphalt has weak de - stocking, and cost factors provide bottom support [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The EIA predicts that the average prices of Brent and WTI crude oil in 2026 will be $55/barrel and $51/barrel respectively, and global inventory may increase by over 2 million barrels per day [3] - Geopolitical conflicts lead to pulse - type price increases, but the long - term concern about oversupply persists, and the main tone of loose supply - demand remains unchanged [3] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Geopolitical factors such as the slowdown of loading in the Middle East and Russia due to the Russia - Ukraine conflict and sanctions cause short - term market disturbances [4] - The improvement of refinery profit and the US blockade of Venezuelan oil exports may boost the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil as feedstock, but high inventory pressure is significant [4] - Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is expected to gradually recover; demand for marine fuel is weak and the weak trend is difficult to reverse [4] Asphalt - Last week, the commercial inventory of asphalt had weak de - stocking, and the factory inventory ended the de - stocking trend since mid - October and started to increase [5] - The US - Venezuela situation has affected the supply of heavy raw materials, and cost factors provide bottom support for asphalt [5]

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current fundamental pattern of crude oil is dominated by oversupply, leading to a downward shift in the oil - price center, despite geopolitical conflicts causing occasional price spikes [2]. - Precious metals are supported by the Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks, but short - term adjustments are inevitable due to excessive gains driven by funds [3]. - For various metals, non - ferrous metals and precious metals generally show certain trends, with each metal having its own supply - demand and price characteristics. For example, copper prices are affected by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and aluminum shows an oscillatingly strong trend [4][5]. - For energy and chemical products, most products face supply - demand imbalances, with some affected by geopolitical factors and some by seasonal and policy factors. For example, fuel oil is affected by geopolitical tensions and high - inventory pressure [22]. - Agricultural products' prices are influenced by factors such as weather, supply - demand relationships, and policies. For example, soybean and bean - related products are affected by South American weather and export situations [36]. - In the financial market, the stock index shows an oscillatingly strong trend, and the bond market has different trends for different - term bonds [48][49]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy Crude Oil - Geopolitical tensions increase concerns about supply disruptions, but the market is still dominated by oversupply. EIA predicts a daily increase of over 2 million barrels in global inventories, and the oil - price center is expected to shift downward [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Geopolitical factors provide short - term support, but the supply - surplus situation remains unchanged. High - sulfur fuel oil demand may increase, but Singapore's high inventory is a significant pressure. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is expected to recover, and demand remains weak [22]. Asphalt - Commercial inventory de - stocking is weak, and the supply of heavy raw materials is unstable due to the escalating situation between the US and Venezuela, providing bottom - end support for prices [23]. Metals Precious Metals - Overnight, precious metals turned upward. The Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks support their strength, but short - term adjustments are needed due to excessive gains. After volatility decreases, a long - position strategy can be considered [3]. Copper - Overnight, copper prices rebounded, with large short - term price fluctuations near the New Year. The market focuses on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations in 2026. The previous options strategy should be continued, and attention should be paid to refinery production schedules and social inventory changes [4]. Aluminum - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated within a narrow range. After a significant correction, the panic sentiment eased. The fundamental driving force of the aluminum market is insufficient, and the oscillatingly strong trend remains unchanged. Long positions can be held based on the 40 - day moving average [5]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of Baotai ADC12 remained at 21,900 yuan. Scrap aluminum is still in short supply, and the cost in some areas may increase due to tax adjustments. The seasonal spread between casting aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum is weaker than in previous years, maintaining around 1,000 yuan [6]. Alumina - Alumina is in a state of significant oversupply, and the cost has room to decline as the bauxite price falls. The short - term decline in the spot price is slowing down, but medium - term stabilization requires large - scale production cuts [7]. Zinc - The supply - side pressure of zinc is weakening, and the overall upward trend remains unchanged. The consumption outlook in January is moderately optimistic, but the real - estate sector restricts the upside of zinc prices. Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [8]. Lead - The maintenance of primary lead smelters continues, and the low social inventory supports the price, but battery enterprises' inventory checks at the end of the year suppress demand. Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate at the bottom, with a price range of 16,800 - 17,500 yuan/ton [9]. Nickel & Stainless Steel - Nickel prices rose again, but the spot trading was cold. The Indonesian Nickel Ore Association reduced the ore quota and will modify the mineral benchmark price formula in early 2026. Stainless - steel costs increased due to the rising nickel - iron price, and social inventory decreased. Short - term policy sentiment dominates, and it is advisable to wait and see [10]. Tin - Shanghai tin rebounded with a reduction in positions. Attention should be paid to the possible mining conference around the New Year. It is recommended to hold a 350,000 - yuan call - selling option and observe the adjustment range [11]. Iron Ore - The supply pressure of iron ore is still large, but with the sign of iron - water production bottoming out and the expectation of steel - mill winter - storage replenishment, the short - term price is supported. However, the positive factors have been reflected in the recent price increase, and the future trend is expected to be oscillatory [16]. Coke - The price oscillated upward during the day. The fourth round of price cuts for coke was fully implemented, and the coking profit was average. The inventory increased slightly, and the downstream demand was still resilient but with a strong willingness to suppress prices. The price faces fundamental pressure after correcting the premium, and market sentiment is affected by policy expectations [17]. Coking Coal - The price oscillated upward during the day. The Mongolian coal customs - clearance volume decreased seasonally, and some domestic coal mines reduced or stopped production. The total coking - coal inventory increased slightly. Similar to coke, it faces fundamental pressure after correcting the discount, and market sentiment is affected by policy expectations [18]. Manganese - The price oscillated strongly during the day. The manganese ore spot price increased. There are structural problems in the port inventory, and the demand for semi - carbonate ore may increase. The iron - water production decreased seasonally. It is recommended to try long positions when the price is low [19]. Silicon Iron - The price oscillated strongly during the day. There are expectations of coal - supply guarantee, which may reduce the power cost and lanthanum - carbon price. The iron - water production rebounded, and the overall demand is still resilient. The supply decreased significantly. It is recommended to try long positions when the price is low [20]. Chemicals Polycrystalline Silicon - The spot price of polycrystalline silicon increased slightly. The downstream silicon - wafer production in December was lower than expected, so the production schedule in January may be slightly increased. The battery - cell production is expected to continue to decline in January. The factory inventory is at a high level and continues to accumulate. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [13]. Industrial Silicon - The weekly operating rate in the northwest main - production area fluctuated slightly. The demand side is still under pressure, and the demand for polycrystalline silicon may weaken again. The upward momentum of the future price depends on the implementation of production - reduction expectations, and the trend may change from strong oscillation to consolidation [14]. Urea - The urea price oscillated strongly. The supply tightened temporarily, and the production - enterprise inventory decreased significantly. The agricultural procurement slowed down, and the industrial demand was mainly for rigid needs. The supply may increase in the short term, and the price may decline slightly [24]. Methanol - The methanol main - contract price increased with an increase in positions. The import volume is expected to decrease gradually, and the coastal MTO device is approaching the restart time. The medium - term port inventory may enter a de - stocking cycle. The short - term port inventory is accumulating. The medium - term price is expected to be strong [25]. Pure Benzene - The pure - benzene price oscillated at night. The port inventory continued to increase, higher than the same period in previous years. There are expectations of device maintenance and downstream production increase in the future, but the supply may also increase. The short - term price oscillates at the bottom, and the medium - term can consider long - short spreads [26]. Styrene - The cost side does not provide obvious positive driving force for styrene. The supply and demand are expected to increase simultaneously, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation, which is difficult to boost the price [27]. Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene - The cost pressure on downstream propylene has been slightly relieved, but the demand recovery is limited. The supply of polyethylene is expected to increase, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high. The supply of polypropylene is expected to increase slightly, and the short - term demand is still weak [28]. PVC & Caustic Soda - PVC shows an oscillatingly strong trend. The supply may increase in the short term, and the demand is weak. The inventory pressure is large, and it is expected to oscillate within a range. Caustic soda runs strongly, but the supply pressure is large, and the downstream demand growth is limited, so the upward space is restricted [29]. PX & PTA - The PX price rose due to strong expectations but started to oscillate after a decline. The short - term supply may increase, and the downstream demand may decline. PTA is expected to reduce inventory at a low load, and the processing margin has slightly recovered. The main driving force is the raw material PX [30]. Ethylene Glycol - The weekly production of ethylene glycol decreased, and the port inventory increased. The downstream polyester is expected to reduce production around the Spring Festival, and the fundamental situation is weakening. However, the reduction in arrival volume and device load eases the inventory - accumulation pressure. The price oscillates at a low level. The long - term supply pressure is still large [31]. Short - Fiber & Bottle Chips - Short - fiber enterprises' inventory is at a low level, but it is the off - season for demand. The long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively good. Bottle - chip demand has weakened, and the inventory has decreased. The long - term problem of over - capacity exists, and the price is mainly driven by cost [32]. Building Materials Glass - Glass prices are running strongly due to environmental - protection pressure and production - capacity reduction. The industry inventory is increasing slightly, and the demand is insufficient. The industry will continue to reduce production capacity, and a new balance is expected to be achieved [33]. Rubber 20 - Number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber - Favorable policies have been introduced, and the international crude - oil price has risen slightly. The global natural - rubber supply is entering the production - reduction period. The demand is average, the natural - rubber inventory is increasing, and the synthetic - rubber inventory is decreasing. The cost support is strengthening. Before the New Year's Day holiday, RU&NR are strong, and BR should be observed [34]. Fertilizers Soda Ash - The soda - ash price is strong due to the call for anti - involution and significant inventory reduction. The production may increase in the future, and the supply pressure is large. The demand for heavy soda ash has slightly declined. The short - term inventory reduction should be observed for sustainability, and the long - term faces oversupply pressure [35]. Agricultural Products Soybean & Bean Meal - This week's soybean crushing volume is expected to decline, and the bean - meal output will decrease. The downstream demand is light, and the inventory may remain high. The South American weather has improved, and the trading logic focuses on US soybean exports and South American production expectations. The bean - meal price will follow the US soybean price and oscillate at the bottom [36]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Near the holiday, the domestic soybean - oil and palm - oil prices rebounded. The South American new - season soybeans are expected to have a good harvest, and the domestic soybean inventory is high. The palm - oil high - inventory pressure in Malaysia needs to be digested. The short - term macro - atmosphere is optimistic [37]. Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed inventory is at a low level, and the supply - side expectation supports the near - month contracts. The EU's rapeseed supply - demand balance has been slightly adjusted. The market focuses on Australian rapeseed crushing and policies. The short - term strategy is to wait and see [38]. Soybean No.1 - The domestic soybean main - contract price is strong. The auction price provides support, and the spot - purchase price has increased. The South American new - season soybeans are expected to have a good harvest. Short - term attention should be paid to domestic policies and the spot market [39]. Corn - The northeast and north - port corn prices are strong. The low - temperature weather makes farmers reluctant to sell, and the supply of ground - stored corn is tight. The resumption of low - price old - wheat auctions may suppress the corn price. The Brazilian first - crop corn planting rate is high. The short - term Dalian corn futures will oscillate [40]. Live Pigs - The live - pig 03 - contract price continued to rise, and the spot price increased rapidly due to reduced end - of - month sales and tight large - pig supply. There is still an expectation of second - fattening replenishment in the short term, but the long - term supply pressure is large, and it is recommended to short after the 03 - contract price rebounds [41]. Eggs - The egg - futures price is weakly adjusted. The spot price is in a low - level oscillation range. The 2 - month contract is expected to be weak, and the 4 - and 5 - month contracts in the first half of next year may be strong. The high - premium contracts in the second half of next year may have a complex trading rhythm [42]. Cotton - Zhengzhou cotton prices rose yesterday, and the spot trading was average. Although the new - cotton production has increased significantly this year, the commercial inventory is lower than the same period last year, and the sales progress is fast, providing support for the price. The demand is stable in the off - season. The industry can consider hedging opportunities [43]. Sugar - Overnight, US sugar oscillated. The rainfall in Brazil in December increased, and the previous drought was slightly alleviated. The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the upward pressure on US sugar remains. The domestic market focuses on the new - season production. The Guangxi production progress is slow, but there is a strong expectation of production increase in the 25/26 season, and the rebound of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be limited [44]. Apples - The apple - futures price oscillates. The cold - storage trading is light, and the demand has entered the off - season. The market's bearish sentiment has increased, and a bearish strategy is recommended [45]. Wood - The wood - futures price is at a low level. The external - market quotation has decreased, and the domestic spot price is weak. The demand is in the off - season, and the port inventory is decreasing. The low inventory provides some support, and it is advisable to wait and see [46]. Pulp - Pulp prices rose yesterday. The short - term upward space is limited due to weak downstream demand. The port inventory has been decreasing for five consecutive weeks. The new - year contract, especially the 01 contract, may face less warehouse - receipt pressure. The paper - mill procurement is mainly for rigid needs, and the market game is intense. It is advisable to wait and see [47]. Financial Products Stock Index - Yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index remained flat with ten consecutive positive days. Most stock - index futures contracts rose, and the basis of all contracts was at a discount. The external - market performance was divided. After precious metals shifted from a one - way upward trend to a high - level volatile pattern, the performance of the stock index and other risk assets needs to be observed. The A - share market is expected to be oscillatingly strong, and attention can be paid to the rotation of low - level sectors [48]. Treasury Bonds - On December 30, 2025, treasury - bond futures showed mixed results. The 30 - year bond rose, and the 10 - and 5 - year bonds fell slightly. The ultra - long - term bonds showed an oversold - recovery trend, and the short - term contracts were relatively weak. In the short term, the allocation of ultra - long - term bonds may increase, and it is advisable to participate in the butterfly - spread strategy to make the yield - curve convex [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the long - short ratio of commodities has changed little. The factor strength of the non - ferrous and precious metals sectors has declined slightly, while that of the agricultural products sector has risen slightly. The cross - sectionally strong sectors are non - ferrous and black, and the weak one is agricultural products. [3] - In terms of strategy net worth, the supply factor strengthened by 0.02% last week, the demand factor weakened by 0.03%, the inventory factor increased by 0.05%, and the synthetic factor increased by 0.04%. This week, the comprehensive signal is long. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Sector Analysis - **Non - ferrous and Precious Metals**: The short - cycle momentum of the non - ferrous sector continues to rise, with a certain reversal in the term structure. The positions of silver have decreased marginally. Gold's time - series momentum has increased slightly. [3] - **Black Sector**: The time - series momentum of the black sector shows a marginal increase, the cross - sectional differentiation has narrowed, and the positions of coking coal and coke are still at a high level. [3] - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: The short - cycle momentum factor of the energy and chemical sector has recovered, and soda ash is at the cross - sectional short end. [3] - **Agricultural Products Sector**: The cross - sectional differentiation of oilseeds and meals has narrowed, the overall time - series momentum has recovered, but the positions have not changed significantly. [3] 3.2 Factor Performance and Signal Analysis - **Factor Performance**: Last week, the supply factor strengthened by 0.02%, the demand factor weakened by 0.03%, the inventory factor increased by 0.05%, and the synthetic factor increased by 0.04%. In the fundamentals, the arrival volume of imported methanol increased, the long - strength of the supply side weakened and turned neutral; the capacity utilization rate of the glacial acetic acid industry increased, the demand side was long; the inventory of methanol in East China ports released a long signal, but the strength weakened; the spot prices of methanol in the inland and coastal areas were differentiated, and the spread side was neutral. [5] - **Comprehensive Signals**: Different commodities have different comprehensive signals. For example, for methanol, this week's comprehensive signal is long; for iron ore, this week's comprehensive signal turns long; for Shanghai aluminum, this week's comprehensive signal turns from long to short; for float glass, this week's comprehensive signal is long. [5][13][15] 3.3 Specific Commodity Analysis - **Methanol**: The arrival volume of imported methanol has increased, the long - strength of the supply side has weakened and turned neutral. The capacity utilization rate of the glacial acetic acid industry has increased, the demand side is long. The inventory of methanol in East China ports has released a long signal, but the strength has weakened. The spot prices of methanol in the inland and coastal areas are differentiated, and the spread side is neutral. [5] - **Iron Ore**: The shipment volume from BHP has decreased slightly, the port arrival volume has dropped, the supply side has a long feedback, and the signal remains neutral. The blast furnace operating rate of steel enterprises continues to decline, but the decline rate has narrowed, the demand - side long feedback continues to weaken, and the signal remains neutral. The average available days of imported iron ore for steel mills have decreased, the inventory of domestic sintering ore powder continues to be destocked, the inventory side has a long feedback, and the signal remains neutral. The spot price center has risen, and the spread side signal turns long. [13] - **Shanghai Aluminum**: SMM's recycled lead losses have narrowed, the price of imported lead concentrate has increased, and the supply - side signal has changed from neutral to short. LME lead inventory has been destocked, and the long - signal strength on the inventory side has increased. The spread between the near and far months of LME lead has narrowed, the long feedback on the spread side has weakened, and the signal has changed from long to neutral. [13] - **Float Glass**: The operating rate of float glass enterprises has decreased slightly month - on - month, and the supply side has turned long. The transaction volume of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities has increased, and the demand side is long. Float glass enterprises in Shandong and Guangdong have slightly destocked, and the inventory side continues to be long. The daily after - tax gross profit of float glass made from pipeline gas continues to be in a loss, and the profit side continues to be short. [15]