Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The report analyzes various commodities and financial markets, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives. It provides insights into price trends, supply - demand dynamics, and potential investment opportunities and risks for each sector [1][2][3] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Brent 09 contract fell 2.11%. The upside potential of oil prices above $70/barrel is limited, but the bottom is expected to rise in Q3 [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil demand is weak, and its cracking spread is declining. Low - sulfur fuel oil has no obvious demand driver, and its cracking spread is also decreasing [21] - **Asphalt**: Supply increase flexibility is to be observed. Demand is weak but has repair expectations. Prices follow crude oil, with limited upside before demand improvement [22] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Middle - East production pressure persists. The market is in a weak supply - demand situation in summer, with prices oscillating weakly [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices are volatile due to high uncertainties in US tariff policies and EU counter - measures. Tonight's US CPI data is to be watched [2] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Prices are likely to fall in the short - term. Short positions can be held or option strategies can be used [3] - **Aluminum**: There is short - term callback pressure as the price breaks the upward trend line and inventories increase [4] - **Zinc**: Short - term price decline is difficult, but mid - term short - selling is still recommended due to increasing supply [7] - **Lead**: Prices are expected to oscillate strongly. Long positions can be held with support at 17,000 [8] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Nickel has room for rebound, but short - selling opportunities should be awaited [9] - **Tin**: Short - selling is recommended as the price shows weakening resilience [10] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Short - selling positions can be gradually established as the price has limited upside due to sufficient supply [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices are expected to be strong, driven by improving fundamentals and polysilicon sentiment [12] - **Polysilicon**: Futures prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, with policy expectations as the main trading logic [13] - **Ferrous Metals** - **Iron Ore**: Prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term, following the trend of finished steel products [15] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: Prices are likely to rise in the short - term, following the steel market [16][17] - **Manganese Silicon & Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Prices are expected to oscillate, with limited ability to follow the rise of steel prices [18][19] Chemicals - **Benzene & Its Derivatives**: Pure benzene has cost drag from falling oil prices. Seasonal supply - demand improvement is expected in Q3, but it will face pressure in Q4. Styrene is in a range - bound pattern, with cost support [26][27] - **Polyolefins**: Polyethylene and polypropylene prices are in a range - bound pattern. Supply is expected to increase, while demand is weak [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC prices may follow market sentiment. Caustic soda prices are expected to be strong [29] - **PX & PTA**: They are in a narrow - range oscillation. Attention should be paid to the repair of PTA processing margins [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply - demand contradiction is not obvious. There are both positive and negative factors in the market [31] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber can be considered long. Bottle - chip's processing margin repair is limited [32] Agricultural Products - **Grains & Oilseeds** - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The US soybean report is neutral - bearish. Domestic soybean meal is expected to oscillate [36] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Long - term, vegetable oils can be considered long at low prices. Short - term, policy and weather should be monitored [37] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The short - term trend is not obvious. It is recommended to wait and see [38][39] - **Corn**: Domestic corn futures are expected to oscillate at the bottom [41] - **Livestock & Poultry** - **Hogs**: The price has downward pressure in the medium - term. Hedging can be considered [42] - **Eggs**: The short - term downside is limited. The long - term cycle has not bottomed out [43] - **Cotton & Sugar** - **Cotton**: US cotton is rising, but the USDA report is bearish. Domestic cotton long positions can be closed temporarily [44] - **Sugar**: US sugar is under pressure. Domestic sugar is expected to oscillate [45] - **Fruits** - **Apples**: The new - season production estimate is bearish. A short - selling strategy can be maintained [46] Others - **Shipping**: The SCFIS European route index rose 7.3%. Short - selling of off - season contracts can be considered at high prices [20] - **Glass**: The short - term price may follow market sentiment. Long - term, supply contraction is needed for a significant rise [33] - **Rubber**: The natural rubber supply is increasing, while the synthetic rubber supply is decreasing. RU&NR can be observed, and BR can be considered for a rebound [34] - **Paper Pulp**: The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [48] - **Stock Index**: The short - term market risk preference is slightly strong. Technology growth stocks can be increased in the portfolio [49] - **Treasury Bonds**: The short - term long - position strategy should be cautious. A curve - steepening strategy can be considered [50]

Report Core View - The US government plans to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper to boost domestic industrial self - sufficiency and rebuild the domestic supply of basic industrial raw materials [2]. - The tariff has limited long - term impact on the global copper supply - demand balance but affects short - term logistics and trade directions. The US may increase domestic copper production and recycling [3]. - The tariff news causes a divergence between US and London copper prices, and the US copper market may become more regionalized [5][6]. - The reasons for the rise in US copper prices in 2025 are different from those in 2024. In 2024, it was due to a squeeze - out situation, while in 2025, it is related to the expected implementation of tariffs [7]. - The transfer of copper inventory to the US may end after the tariff is implemented, and the global copper market may enter a volatile downward trend [8][11]. Summary by Related Questions 1. Trump's Purpose of Imposing Copper Tariffs - Trump aims to build a manufacturing internal cycle and increase the domestic production and supply ratio of basic industrial raw materials such as copper, steel, and aluminum [2]. 2. Impact on Global Copper Supply - Demand and Chile's Exports - In the long run, the impact on the balance sheet is limited. In the short term, it affects the logistics and trade direction before the tariff implementation. The US may increase domestic copper production and recycling [3]. - The tariff may reduce the US's imports of refined copper from most countries. Chile's exports to the US may be affected, but China is currently the largest importer of Chilean copper [4]. 3. Divergence between New York and London Copper Prices - Before the tariff implementation, the expectation of tariffs attracts global copper to the US, changing the distribution of global copper inventories. After the implementation, the US copper market may be separated from the global market [5][6]. 4. Comparison between 2024 and 2025 Copper Price Increases - In 2024, the rise in US copper prices was due to a squeeze - out situation driven by multiple factors. In 2025, it is related to the expected implementation of tariffs, with a different market structure [7]. 5. Copper Inventory Situation - Currently, LME copper inventory is 10.2 tons, and COMEX copper inventory is 19.95 tons. The transfer of inventory to the US may end after the tariff implementation [8]. 6. Future of New York Copper Prices and Impact on Domestic Copper - Whether New York copper prices can reach new highs depends on the implementation of exemption clauses. Domestic Shanghai copper will mainly track London copper prices [10]. - The copper market may enter a volatile downward trend, and domestic copper enterprises can handle risks through hedging [11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Methanol: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term multi/empty trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term multi/empty trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Polyolefins: Not explicitly rated in the given content - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term multi/empty trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term multi/empty trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Polyester: Not explicitly rated in the given content - Chlor - alkali: PVC ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term multi/empty trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach; Caustic Soda ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term multi/empty trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Glass and Soda Ash: Not explicitly rated in the given content Core Viewpoints - The chemical market shows complex trends with different products having their own supply - demand situations. Some products are affected by factors such as supply changes, demand seasons, policy news, and cost fluctuations, and their prices are expected to have different trends including range - bound oscillations, maintaining strength, or being under pressure [2][3][4] Summary by Product Methanol - The methanol market is in a weak and volatile state. Import arrivals have increased, MTO device operation in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has slightly decreased, and port inventories have continued to accumulate. Some olefin malfunctions in the northwest have led to inventory build - up of supporting methanol. Although there are many planned maintenance of methanol devices in the future, the low acceptance of high - priced raw materials by downstream industries during the off - season may keep the market oscillating within a range [2] Urea - The urea market is supported by the spread of export quota news. Supply remains abundant, agricultural demand is expected to weaken, and the operation of compound fertilizer producers has declined. Inventory has transferred from upstream to downstream and ports, with rapid port inventory build - up. The latest Indian tender price has boosted market sentiment, but the actual impact is limited. As agricultural demand enters the off - season, new policy guidance is awaited [3] Polyolefins - Polyolefin futures have shown narrow - range fluctuations. The positive support from polyethylene device maintenance has faded, increasing supply pressure. The market is in the traditional off - season, with pessimistic sentiment and low trading volume. Although there is cost support, the fundamentals are weak. For polypropylene, the increase in the number of maintenance devices in upstream petrochemical enterprises has offset some of the supply - side pressure from new capacity, but the weak demand situation remains [4] Pure Benzene - After overnight oil prices fell, the center of pure benzene has moved down. The slowdown in port inventory build - up and improved downstream purchasing atmosphere are short - term positives. There is an expectation of seasonal improvement in supply - demand in the second half of the third quarter, but pressure in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to operate according to seasonal supply - demand trends, conduct monthly spread band operations, and consider short - selling pure benzene at high prices based on the long - term bearish view of oil prices [5] Styrene - Styrene futures have shown narrow - range fluctuations. There is some support from the macro - level and cost, but its own supply - demand is weak. Although domestic supply has slightly decreased, there is no increase in downstream demand, and port inventories have continued to accumulate, with the spot basis weakening [6] Polyester - After overnight oil prices fell, the centers of PX and PTA have declined, and their monthly spreads have rebounded from low levels. PX supply - demand has improved with the decline in PK operation and the increase in PTA operation. Polyester operation has slightly decreased, and the PTA supply - demand pattern has changed from tight to loose, with processing margins, spreads, and monthly spreads under pressure. The PTA spot processing margin has dropped significantly and has the driving force to repair upwards. For ethylene glycol, affected by the decline in oil prices, its price has oscillated downwards. Although there is no obvious supply - demand contradiction, port inventory reduction and the improvement of the overall chemical atmosphere have provided some support. There is an expectation of both supply and demand increase in the second half of the third quarter. Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices have followed the decline of raw materials. Short - fiber downstream operation has continued to decline, and inventory has slightly increased. Bottle - chip enterprises have cut production, and the processing margin has repaired, but caution is needed due to the declining demand [7] Chlor - alkali - PVC prices fell at the end of the session. Downstream orders were insufficient, and inventory in East and South China continued to accumulate. With new capacity coming online, production reached a new high. Domestic demand was weak, and export delivery decreased. In the short term, it is necessary to focus on macro - sentiment and cost drivers, and in the long term, it is difficult for prices to rise significantly due to poor demand and high production. Caustic soda has shown narrow - range fluctuations. Enterprise operation has decreased, and inventory has declined month - on - month. Although alumina capacity has slightly increased, the non - aluminum downstream demand is average. With the subsidy price of liquid chlorine remaining, profit has narrowed. In the short term, cost support has strengthened, and the spot price is strong, with the futures price showing a slightly upward - oscillating trend. In the long term, supply pressure remains, and it is difficult for prices to rise significantly [8] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass has continued a strong trend, with price increases in Shahe and planned price hikes in other regions. This week, the purchasing sentiment of middle and downstream players was good, and inventory in important regions has decreased. With cost rising and spot prices increasing, industry profit has slightly recovered, and capacity has slightly increased. However, processing orders are weak, and the willingness to stock up on raw sheets is low. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate with macro - sentiment. In the long term, if there are substantial real - estate policies, prices may continue to rise; otherwise, supply contraction is needed for significant price increases. Soda ash has declined from high levels. With high - pressure supply and continuous inventory build - up, Tianjin Alkali and Chongqing Xiangyu face production volume challenges. Photovoltaic production has continued to cut, and the industry is suffering large losses. Although coal prices have risen in the short term, narrowing profit margins, leading enterprises have cost advantages. The supply will remain high - pressure, and it is expected to be a pattern of short - selling at high prices [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, suggesting a short - term balanced state with poor market operability, advising to wait and see) [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not explicitly rated, assumed to follow the general fuel - oil situation [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] Core Viewpoints - The international oil price declined overnight, and the SC08 contract dropped 1.65% during the day. The uncertainty in the economy and oil demand persists due to the flip - flopping of tariff policies. The supply - demand balance will face pressure from production resumption and a decline in demand in the fourth quarter [2]. - The fuel - oil futures followed the decline of crude oil. The high - sulfur fuel oil has weak demand and the supply risk is lifted, while the low - sulfur fuel oil lacks obvious demand drivers [2]. - Asphalt showed the strongest resistance to decline among oil - product futures. The inventory pattern has changed, and the demand recovery is expected to be delayed [3]. - The international LPG market has a loose supply. The import cost decline promotes PDH profit repair, but the market will maintain a low - level oscillation [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices went down, with the SC08 contract dropping 1.65% during the day. Trump's threat to increase tariffs on Brazil and the uncertainty of tariff policies affect economic and oil demand. OPEC+ may pause production increase after September, but production resumption and a demand decline in Q4 will pressure supply - demand. The market is supported by the strong physical market in the peak season and the expectation of Russian oil sanctions, but the upside space above $70/barrel for Brent is limited [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - As crude oil fell today, fuel - oil futures declined. High - sulfur fuel oil has weak demand in shipping and deep - processing, and the demand from power generation in the Middle East and North Africa is insufficient. The supply risk is lifted as the Middle East conflict eases. Low - sulfur fuel oil's supply advantage from the coking profit decline fades, and the demand lacks a clear driver [2]. Asphalt - Crude oil futures declined today, and asphalt showed the strongest resistance among oil - product futures. The actual production in June exceeded the plan, and the inventory shifted from destocking to stocking in late June. The accumulated shipment of 54 sample refineries has increased significantly year - on - year. The demand recovery is expected to be delayed due to high - temperature and rainy weather. The current asphalt price mainly follows the crude - oil direction, and the BU crack spread rebounded today [3]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The international LPG market has a loose supply. Although crude oil has strengthened recently, LPG prices are stable. The new maintenance last week led to a decline in chemical demand, while the decline in import cost promoted PDH profit repair. The market will maintain a low - level oscillation due to the supply pressure in summer and limited upward momentum [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but limited trading operability on the market) [1] - Aluminum: ななな (No clear indication of investment rating) [1] - Alumina: ななな (No clear indication of investment rating) [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but limited trading operability on the market) [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but limited trading operability on the market) [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but limited trading operability on the market) [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but limited trading operability on the market) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ななな (No clear indication of investment rating) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ななな (No clear indication of investment rating) [1] - Polysilicon: ななな (No clear indication of investment rating) [1] Core Views - The market is influenced by factors such as Trump's tariff remarks, US interest rate cut expectations, and the "anti - involution" theme, which have different impacts on various metals [1][3] - Different metals have different supply - demand fundamentals and price trends, and investment strategies vary accordingly Summaries by Metal Copper - Friday saw Shanghai copper futures closing down with fluctuations. Spot copper was reported at 78,720 yuan, with a Shanghai copper discount of 50 yuan and a Guangdong copper discount of 30 yuan. The refined - scrap spread tightened to 860 yuan [1] - The market is concerned about Trump's tariff news. Given the domestic off - season and increased pressure from Trump's tariff remarks, the downward trend may expand, and short positions are recommended [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly, with the East China spot discount slightly widening to 70 yuan. During the off - season, there is a negative feedback in the spot market, but the inventory accumulation is not significant. The position of the Shanghai aluminum index is at a multi - year high, indicating a large market divergence [2] - Cast aluminum alloy follows the movement of Shanghai aluminum. The Baotai quotation is 19,600 yuan, and the delivery product shows a premium. If the price spread between aluminum and cast aluminum alloy expands, consider a long AD and short AL strategy [2] - The "anti - involution" theme in the over - supplied industry has driven up the alumina futures and spot prices, but the domestic alumina operating capacity has returned to a historical high, and the upside space may be limited [2] Zinc - LME zinc inventory has continuously declined to 105,000 tons, and the 0 - 3 month spread has changed from a discount to a premium. The overseas market is strong, and the spot import loss has expanded to over 1,500 yuan/ton [3] - Domestic zinc exchange inventory has increased by 4,617 tons to 49,981 tons, and the position - to - warrant ratio of the 07 contract has dropped below 1. Traders are actively selling at high prices, while downstream buyers are reluctant to buy at high prices, resulting in weak spot trading and a weakening premium [3] - Despite positive capital flows due to US interest rate cut expectations and domestic "anti - involution," the supply - increase and demand - weakening expectation in the fundamentals remain unchanged, and a short - on - rebound strategy is recommended [3] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel has rebounded significantly, and the market trading is active. The Jinchuan premium is 2,600 yuan, the imported nickel premium is 400 yuan, and the electrowon nickel premium is 150 yuan [6] - The calming of the situation in Indonesia is the main pressure on the ore end. The high - nickel iron price is 913 yuan per nickel point, and the upstream price support has weakened significantly. Inventories at all levels are sufficient, and there is no short - term spot support. It is advisable to try short positions with a light position [6] Tin - Shanghai tin has closed down with a reduction in positions, and the spot tin price is 266,700 yuan. The market is concerned about the repeated low - level state of LME tin inventory at 200 tons, and the overnight LME 0 - 3 month spot premium is 22 dollars [7] - The LME Hong Kong warehouse will start operating on July 15th. It is expected that there will be some inventory reduction in China this week. Hold the previous high - level short positions [7] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price has rebounded with fluctuations, and the market trading is active. The total market inventory is at a high level, but downstream confidence has increased, and the downstream production schedule in July is relatively strong [8] - The time significance of the lithium carbonate rebound is greater than the space significance. The driving force brought by "anti - involution" is weaker than that of the silicon series. Observe the effectiveness of the resistance in the 65,000 - 66,500 yuan range [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures have closed slightly higher at 8,415 yuan/ton. The Xinjiang 421 spot price has increased by 100 yuan/ton to 8,550 yuan/ton [9] - Downstream demand has improved marginally. In July, the polysilicon production is expected to break through the 90,000 - 100,000 - ton range in the first half of the year and approach 110,000 tons. The DMC production in June - July has increased significantly month - on - month after months of maintenance [9] - The social inventory decreased slightly last week. With the support of the polysilicon market sentiment and marginal improvement in demand, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures have closed with fluctuations at 41,330 yuan/ton, and some long positions have been reduced. The M - type re - feedstock price is stable at 46,000 yuan/ton, and the current spot trading is relatively limited [10] - Affected by the polysilicon sentiment, the silicon wafer price has risen significantly. The exchange will increase the margin next Monday, and the trading logic will gradually return to the fundamentals. The polysilicon warrant quantity is basically stable, and the upside hedging pressure is small. The price is expected to follow the spot and oscillate strongly [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆, suggesting the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is less operable, mainly for observation [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - Apple: ★☆☆, representing a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited market operability [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆, same as above [1] - Natural rubber: ★☆☆, same as above [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★☆☆, same as above [1] Core Views - The report analyzes various soft commodities including cotton, pulp, sugar, apple, timber, 20 - rubber, natural rubber, butadiene rubber, and provides investment ratings and operation suggestions for each commodity based on their supply, demand, and inventory conditions [1][2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly today, driven by the strong performance of bulk commodities. The cotton industry chain shows stronger raw materials and weaker downstream. Pure cotton yarn prices rose with raw materials but with weak momentum. Mainland spinning mills' operation rate continued to decline, while Xinjiang's remained high. As of the end of June, cotton commercial inventory was 2.8298 million tons, a decrease of 628,900 tons from the end of May. Operationally, buy on significant pullbacks [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, the production data for the first half of June in the central - southern region was positive. Due to heavy rainfall, the sugarcane harvest was affected, and the sugarcane crushing volume decreased significantly year - on - year. The sugar - making ratio increased year - on - year. In China, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. As of the end of June, the cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi were 5.1406 million tons, an increase of 614,400 tons year - on - year. It is expected that the short - term sugar price will remain volatile, and for now, take a wait - and - see approach [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated weakly. The spot price remained stable. New - season early - maturing apples began to enter the market. The inventory in cold storage decreased year - on - year. The market's trading focus shifted to the new - season production estimate. The production estimate is relatively bearish. Operationally, maintain a bearish stance [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU&NR futures prices declined slightly, and BR fluctuated. The futures market sentiment was cautious. The domestic natural rubber spot price was stable, and the synthetic rubber spot price rose slightly. The supply of natural rubber is increasing, and the supply of synthetic rubber is decreasing. The downstream demand is recovering, and rubber inventory is increasing. Strategically, expect a rebound [5] Pulp - Today, pulp futures rose. The spot price remained stable. As of July 10, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.179 million tons, a decrease of 34,000 tons from the previous period. The domestic pulp supply is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. The pulp valuation is low. For now, take a wait - and - see approach or conduct short - term operations [6] Logs - The futures price fluctuated. The spot price remained stable. The supply of New Zealand logs in July increased month - on - month, and the demand improved. The national port log inventory decreased month - on - month, and the inventory pressure was relatively small. However, the domestic demand is in the off - season, and the price rebound momentum is insufficient. For now, take a wait - and - see approach [7]

Report Investment Ratings - The operation ratings for various agricultural products are as follows: soybean has a certain rating (not clearly defined in a general way), soybean oil, palm oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, and corn are rated with a certain star indication; live pigs are rated ★☆☆ (indicating a bias towards a bearish trend); eggs are rated ★★★ (indicating a more distinct bullish trend) [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of multiple agricultural products including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs, considering factors such as weather, policies, supply - demand relationships, and trade situations, and provides corresponding market trend judgments and investment suggestions [2][3][4] Summary by Product Soybeans - The price of domestic soybean futures fluctuates slightly, and the spot price is stable. Short - term weather is favorable for soybean crops in the main producing areas. There were two - way trading on the policy side this week with good trading results. Short - term attention should be paid to weather and policy guidance [2] Soybeans & Soybean Meal - As of July 8, about 9% of the US soybean main producing areas were affected by drought. Future rainfall in the US soybean producing areas is expected to be above normal and temperatures slightly below normal, which is beneficial for crop growth. The domestic oil mill's weekly crushing volume remains high, and soybean meal inventory is rising. Brazilian soybean premium has increased significantly, and the procurement progress of domestic oil mills for September shipments has reached 70%. The Dalian soybean meal market is currently in a volatile state [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Palm oil prices are strong, hitting a phased high, and soybean oil rebounds accordingly. This is mainly due to macro - economic expectations. Short - term attention should be paid to the weather in European and Black Sea sunflower seed producing areas. In the long term, the development of biodiesel supports vegetable oil prices, and a long - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - European rapeseed futures prices have stabilized after approaching the annual low. Canadian rapeseed prices are stronger than the European market due to changeable weather. The demand for Canadian rapeseed depends on trade negotiations. The net long position of funds in Canadian rapeseed is at a historical high. The domestic rapeseed meal market is in the peak demand season, but the low price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is not conducive to rapeseed meal consumption. The short - term trend of rapeseed products is expected to be volatile [6] Corn - As of July 8, about 12% of the US corn main producing areas were affected by drought. The US corn may continue to look for a bottom. The Dalian corn futures are mainly in a weak and volatile state. The increase in supply in the circulation link has a great impact on the market, and the futures may continue to be weak and volatile [7] Live Pigs - The live pig futures have a small decline with reduced positions, and the spot price continues to fall. The basis between spot and futures has narrowed significantly, and the upward momentum of the futures is insufficient. The industry supply is abundant in the later period, and there is downward pressure on prices in the medium term. The industry can participate in short - selling hedging [8] Eggs - The egg futures prices fluctuate narrowly with reduced positions. Some far - month contracts rebound today. The spot price has increased in some provinces. The current spot market is at the turning point between the off - season and peak season, but the late - coming Mid - Autumn Festival this year may affect the price rise rhythm. The futures positions are at a high level, and there is a risk of increased volatility at the turning point. The long - term egg price cycle has not bottomed out [9]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The report assigns a one-star rating to all commodities, indicating a bullish or bearish bias but limited trading operability [1]. Group 2: Steel Analysis - Today, the steel futures market showed a volatile upward trend. This week, both the apparent demand and production of rebar declined slightly, while inventory continued to decrease slowly. The demand for hot-rolled coils continued to decline, and production also decreased, with inventory gradually accumulating. The molten iron output decreased slightly but remained at a relatively high level. With low inventory, the market faced limited negative feedback pressure. It is necessary to focus on the demand absorption capacity during the off-season. In terms of downstream industries, infrastructure recovery lacked sustainability, real estate sales hovered at a low level, and indicators such as investment and new construction continued to decline significantly. The manufacturing industry as a whole remained resilient. The "anti-involution" concept continued to dominate the market trend, with optimistic market sentiment. In the short term, the futures market is expected to remain strong, with increased volatility. Attention should be paid to changes in terminal demand and relevant domestic and international policies [2]. Group 3: Iron Ore Analysis - Today, the iron ore futures market showed a strong and volatile trend. On the supply side, global shipments dropped significantly after the end-of-quarter rush, while domestic arrivals rebounded, and port clearance remained high. This week, port inventories continued to decline. On the demand side, the apparent demand for steel weakened slightly during the off-season, and steel mills maintained decent profitability, yet there was still some pressure to reduce molten iron production. At the macro level, the market had high expectations for an important meeting next week, and with reduced external trade uncertainties, market sentiment for long positions improved. In the short term, with optimistic market sentiment, iron ore will maintain a strong trend. However, the current price already reflects some optimistic expectations, so attention should be paid to the risk of increased market volatility in the future [3]. Group 4: Coke Analysis - Today, the coke futures market trended upward. Coking plants expect to raise prices next week, with meager profits, and daily coking production has continued to decline from its annual high. The overall coke inventory remained largely unchanged, while traders' willingness to purchase increased. Overall, the supply of carbon elements remained relatively abundant, and downstream molten iron production remained at a high level during the off-season. The "anti-involution" concept currently has limited impact on the coke industry. The coke futures price is at a premium, and the price trend mainly follows that of steel. In the short term, it may continue to rise [4]. Group 5: Coking Coal Analysis - Today, the coking coal futures market trended upward. The production of coking coal mines continued to recover, with previously shut-down mines resuming production. The spot auction market improved, with transaction prices rising significantly, and terminal inventories increasing. The total coking coal inventory decreased month-on-month, with a significant drop in production-side inventory. In the short term, inventory is likely to continue decreasing. Overall, the supply of carbon elements remained relatively abundant, and downstream molten iron production remained at a high level during the off-season. The "anti-involution" concept currently has limited impact on the coking coal industry. The coking coal futures price is at a premium, and the price trend mainly follows that of steel. In the short term, it may continue to rise [6]. Group 6: Silicon Manganese Analysis - Today, the silicon manganese futures market trended upward. Due to continuous production cuts, inventory levels decreased. However, weekly production began to recover, and on-balance inventory started to increase. In the medium to long term, manganese ore inventory increased steadily. In the short term, the current inventory level is low, and manganese mines are more willing to hold prices. Jupiter announced its August 2025 manganese ore shipment price to China: Mn36.5% South African semi-carbonate lump at $3.9 per ton-degree, up from the previous offer of $3.85 in June. Silicon manganese mainly follows the trend of rebar, with limited price increases. It is expected that the price will fluctuate within a narrow range [7]. Group 7: Silicon Iron Analysis - Today, the silicon iron futures market trended significantly upward. Molten iron production decreased slightly but remained above 239. Export demand remained around 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased month-on-month, and secondary demand remained stable at a high level. Overall, demand was decent. The supply of silicon iron continued to decline, market transactions were average, and on-balance inventory continued to decrease. However, production-side inventory started to increase, mainly due to the decrease in warehouse receipt inventory. Silicon iron mainly follows the trend of rebar, with limited price increases. It is expected that the price will fluctuate [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is influenced by various factors such as Trump's tariff policies, seasonal demand, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical events, leading to diverse trends in different commodities and financial markets [2][44] - Different commodities and markets show different trends including upward, downward, and oscillatory movements, and investors need to pay attention to specific factors affecting each market 3. Summary by Commodity and Market Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices declined, with the Brent 09 contract down 1.85%. Uncertainties in economic and oil demand remain due to tariff policies, and although the peak - season physical market provides support, the upside space above $70/barrel is limited [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The strength order is SC > BU > LU > FU. High - sulfur fuel oil demand is weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil lacks a clear driving force, with both showing weakening trends [18] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The international market supply is generally loose, and prices are stable. The import cost decline drives PDH margin repair, but the market maintains low - level oscillations in summer [20] - **Natural Gas**: No relevant information provided Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals oscillated. Fed officials are divided on interest - rate cuts, and uncertainties before the US tariff deadline may cause risk sentiment to fluctuate, leading to continued oscillations [3] - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices oscillated. Trump's tariff remarks may further push prices down during the domestic off - season, and short positions are recommended [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to oscillate strongly. Although there are signs of negative feedback in the off - season, inventory accumulation is not significant. Market risk preference is positive, and attention should be paid to position changes [5] - **Alumina**: The anti - involution theme drives the rise of alumina futures and spot prices. Although it is currently oscillating strongly, the high - level operating capacity may limit the upside space [6] - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rebounded following the black - metal market. Although the short - term low - inventory situation leads to intensified capital games, the long - term downward trend is determined by the supply - demand imbalance [8] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel rebounded strongly, but with sufficient inventory and weak upstream price support, short positions are recommended on a light scale [10] - **Tin**: Overnight, LME tin recovered most of its gains. Attention is on the low - level fluctuations of LME tin inventory, and short positions from previous highs are recommended to be held [11] Chemicals - **Methanol**: Methanol imports and apparent demand are weak, and port inventory is accumulating. Although planned plant overhauls may support prices, the off - season demand may limit price increases, resulting in range - bound oscillations [22] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: Affected by production rumors, PVC is strong in the short term, but long - term price increases are limited due to weak demand and high production. Caustic soda continues to rise, but long - term supply pressure may limit significant price increases [25] - **PX & PTA**: Overnight oil prices fell, causing PX and PTA prices to decline. PX supply - demand improves, while PTA supply - demand eases, and attention should be paid to the plant overhaul rhythm at low processing margins [26] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Affected by falling oil prices, ethylene glycol oscillated overnight. Although there is no obvious supply - demand contradiction, port inventory reduction and improved market sentiment provide some support [27] - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Resin**: Prices of short - fiber and bottle - grade resin declined slightly. Short - fiber inventory may increase, and caution is needed regarding the repair space of bottle - grade resin processing margins [28] - **Pure Benzene**: Overnight oil prices fell, and the increase of pure benzene slowed. There are short - term positives in the market, but it will face pressure in the fourth quarter. Seasonal supply - demand trends should be considered for operation [46] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The US soybean good - quality rate is normal, and the domestic soybean meal market oscillates. Uncertainties in Sino - US trade and future weather conditions need to be monitored [32] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Palm oil prices slightly corrected. The MPOB report is more bearish than expected, but long - term, bio - diesel development may support vegetable oil prices. Short - term attention should be paid to policy and weather [33] - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed may face local dry risks, and domestic rapeseed oil is weak. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [34] - **Corn**: Dalian corn oscillates. The increase in supply due to auctions affects market expectations, and the market may continue to oscillate [36] - **Sugar**: US sugar oscillates weakly due to expected increases in India and Thailand's production. The domestic sugar market has low import volumes and light inventory pressure, and prices are expected to oscillate [40] - **Cotton**: US cotton rose slightly. Brazilian cotton harvesting is slow, and domestic cotton has a good inventory digestion but faces off - season pressure. Buying on dips is recommended [39] - **Eggs**: Egg futures declined, and the spot price is stable. The peak - season start time may be delayed, and long - term egg prices may not have bottomed out [38] - **Hogs**: Hog futures rose, but the spot price weakened slightly. Long - term capacity pressure exists, and there is downward pressure on hog prices [37] - **Apples**: Apple futures oscillate. New - season early - maturing apples are on the market, and the market focuses on new - season yield estimates. A bearish operation strategy is recommended [41] Others - **Shipping**: The container shipping index (European line) is expected to oscillate in the short term, following spot freight rates. Geopolitical events may affect the market, and a cease - fire agreement may put pressure on far - month contracts [17] - **Building Materials** - **Glass**: Affected by production rumors and inventory reduction, glass futures rose. Short - term prices may follow macro - sentiment, and long - term price increases depend on real estate policies or supply reduction [29] - **Lumber**: Lumber futures oscillate. The supply of radiata pine is low, and demand shows some improvement, but prices are still weak due to the off - season [42] - **Paper Pulp**: Paper pulp futures rose significantly. Although port inventory is high and demand is weak, the "anti - involution" concept boosts sentiment, and short - term observation or short - term operations are recommended [43] - **Financial Markets** - **Stock Index**: A - shares oscillated upward, and index futures rose slightly. The market is concerned about Trump's tariff policies, and investors are advised to increase their allocation of technology - growth stocks on the basis of dividend - asset allocation [44] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures oscillated downward, and bond yields increased. Market risk preference is rising, and the bond market may face increased volatility [45]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy (Positive Outlook)**: Beans (★★☆), Soybean Meal (★★★), Rapeseed Meal (★★☆), Rapeseed Oil (★★★) [1] - **Sell (Negative Outlook)**: Palm Oil (★★★), Corn (★★★), Live Hogs (★★★), Eggs (★☆☆) [1] Core Views - The report provides a daily analysis of various agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live hogs, and eggs. It assesses the current market conditions, factors influencing prices, and offers short - and long - term outlooks for each product. Short - term factors such as weather, policy, and trade uncertainties are emphasized, while long - term trends like bio - diesel development and supply - demand fundamentals are also considered [2][3][4] Summary by Category Soybeans - Domestic soybeans have stopped falling and rebounded, with prices slightly fluctuating. Northeast China's weather is favorable for soybean growth this week, and policy - driven trading had good results. Future weather and policies need close attention. US soybean优良率 is 66%, in line with market expectations, and future US weather shows no major deviations. Uncertainties in Sino - US trade remain, and the Dalian soybean market is currently in a state of oscillation [2][3] Soybean Meal - US soybean conditions are normal, and the domestic oil mill's weekly crushing volume remains high, leading to an increase in soybean meal inventory. Brazilian premiums have risen significantly, and domestic oil mills' 9 - month shipping procurement progress has reached 70%. With many uncertainties in Sino - US trade and no bad weather in the US for now, the Dalian soybean meal market is expected to oscillate [3] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - The palm oil main contract has partially reduced positions, and prices have slightly corrected. The MPOB report shows that production meets expectations, but exports are lower, domestic consumption is higher, and ending stocks are higher than expected. In the third quarter, overseas palm oil is in a seasonal production - increasing cycle. In the long run, bio - diesel development can support vegetable oil prices, so a long - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended. Short - term attention should be paid to policy and weather [4] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - There is still a risk of local dryness in the Canadian rapeseed - growing area, but recent rainfall has alleviated some concerns. CFTG funds hold a net long position in ICE rapeseed, which is at a historical high, and there is a risk of price pressure if funds reduce their positions. The domestic rapeseed oil market is weak, affected by the poor export performance of palm oil in the MPOB report. The rapeseed - related futures prices are under short - term pressure [6] Corn - The Dalian corn market is oscillating. Since July, due to the impact of CNGC auctions, the supply has increased and prices have declined, affecting market expectations. The supply from some grass - roots traders has increased, and the purchase prices of deep - processing enterprises in Shandong and Northeast China have generally fallen. The corn futures market is likely to continue oscillating [7] Live Hogs - Live hog futures have increased in positions and prices, with the main contract hitting a new high. However, the spot price has weakened slightly, and the basis has narrowed significantly. The long - term production capacity pressure remains as the inventory of breeding sows increased in June, indicating a downward pressure on hog prices in the medium - to - long - term [8] Eggs - Egg futures have increased in positions and decreased in price, hitting a new low. The spot price is stable. July is a turning point between the off - season and peak season for egg prices, but this year's peak season may start later due to the late Mid - Autumn Festival. The 8 - month futures contract still has a premium of nearly a thousand yuan over the spot. In the long run, the long - term egg price has not bottomed out due to insufficient capacity reduction [9]