铜月报 2025/10/10 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 吴坤金（有色金属组） 海外铜矿减产，供应预期收紧 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度要点小结 03 供需分析 02 期现市场 04 宏观分析 01 月度要点小结 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 供应：海外铜矿供应扰动加大，供应紧张预期加剧，粗铜供应偏稳。9月国内精炼铜产量降幅较大，预计10月产量进一步下滑。 ◆ 需求：9月中国精炼铜表观消费预估同比下降，10月表观消费预计降幅有所收窄。海外制造业景气度走弱，需求预期不佳。 ◆ 进出口：9月沪铜进口窗口关闭，美铜与伦铜价差扩大，美铜套利窗口再次开启。 ◆ 库存：9月上期所和COMEX库存增加，保税区和LME库存减少，总库存抬升。预估10月中国和LME累库压力偏小。 ◆ 小结：进入10月，中国精炼铜产量预估进一步减少，消费预计季节性下滑，总体供应过剩压力不大。海外需求预期不佳，不过美铜价格上涨 可能再次虹吸海外精炼铜供应，减轻LME市场累库压力。宏观层面，市场预期美联储本月仍有较大概率降息，叠加国内四中全会召开，情绪 面预计不会 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The theoretical supply pressure in the fourth quarter is relatively large, and the current breeding profit has turned negative across the board. The spot market has entered a period of concentrated decline. Under pessimistic sentiment, the premium of the near - month contract on the futures market has been continuously squeezed out. - Considering that the price decline started earlier this year, it has released some risks before the Spring Festival to a certain extent, making the themes of inventory accumulation and consumption in the later period more prominent. Pay attention to when the pessimistic sentiment eases. It is not advisable to be overly bearish on the far - month contracts. - As the premium space of the near - month contract is squeezed out, the operation strategy should change from shorting on rallies to reducing short positions. After the spot price stabilizes, consider the possibility of a 1 - 3 positive spread, while maintaining a reverse spread strategy for the far - end contracts [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: The market supply pressure has been concentratedly realized, and the consumption before and after holidays fell short of expectations. Since September, the live - hog spot price has dropped significantly. The weight has not decreased significantly, the fat - to - standard price difference has increased slightly month - on - month but the absolute level is limited, and the number of pens of small - scale farmers has declined and is lower year - on - year. The average price in Henan dropped by 2.52 yuan to 11.3 yuan/kg, in Sichuan by 2.1 yuan to 11.16 yuan/kg, and in Guangdong by 2.7 yuan to 12.02 yuan/kg. The plan completion rate in September was low, and the supply in October is still sufficient. The theoretical and planned slaughter scale is large, and the consumption has declined slightly month - on - month. The price is expected to be weak in consolidation, with a possible slight rebound in the second half of the month as the temperature drops [11]. - **Supply Side**: In August, the official sow inventory was 40.36 million heads, a slight decrease of 60,000 heads month - on - month (0.1%), still 3.5% more than the normal sow inventory. The continuous increase in sow production capacity since last year may lead to a weaker fundamental situation in 2025 than in 2024. There is a strong expectation of policy - driven capacity reduction, which may improve the supply situation next year. The data from different sources shows different trends in sow inventory changes, and more evidence is needed to determine whether the capacity has been effectively reduced. From the piglet data, the basic supply from September to November has a significant increase, but the continuous weight reduction of large - scale farms from June to August has advanced part of the supply, which may partially offset the current supply pressure. The current market still shows a clear situation of oversupply [11]. - **Demand Side**: At the beginning of September, with the start of the new semester, the temperature drop in the middle and late September, and the stocking for the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, there may be marginal improvement in demand. However, after the National Day, the demand will enter a low - season again until the temperature drops and the Spring Festival approaches [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side strategy, it is recommended to wait and see. For the arbitrage strategy, take profit on the 3 - 7 and 3 - 9 reverse spreads on dips, and pay attention to the 1 - 3 positive spread. The profit - to - loss ratio is 2:1, the recommended period is 2 months, and the core driving factors include policies, weight, basic supply, and fat - to - standard price difference [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Price Trend**: The spot price has dropped significantly since September due to concentrated supply pressure and lower - than - expected consumption. The prices in Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong have all decreased. The price is expected to be weak in October, with a possible slight rebound in the second half of the month [22]. - **Basis and Spread Trend**: The spot price has dropped sharply, the basis has decreased significantly, and the month - to - month spread follows the reverse - spread logic [25]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Reproductive Sows and Changes**: In August, the official sow inventory decreased slightly month - on - month but was still higher than the normal level. The continuous increase in sow production capacity may lead to a weaker market in 2025. The effectiveness of capacity reduction needs more evidence [33]. - **Inventory and Slaughter**: From the piglet data, there is an increase in supply from September to November, but the weight reduction of large - scale farms from June to August has advanced part of the supply, which may offset some pressure. The current market shows oversupply [42]. - **Sow Culling and Sales**: The proportion of small - pig slaughter has increased slightly, indicating a slight resurgence of pig diseases. The proportion of large - pig slaughter is not high, and attention should be paid to the fat - to - standard price difference [45]. - **Trading and Average Weight after Slaughter**: The slaughter volume has been increasing month - on - month, and the weight of large - scale farms has started to stabilize and rebound, showing an oversupply situation [49]. 3.4 Demand Side - **Slaughter Volume**: There may be marginal improvement in demand at the beginning of September and during the holidays, but it will enter a low - season after the National Day until the temperature drops and the Spring Festival approaches [58]. - **Slaughter Capacity Utilization and Gross Margin**: No specific data analysis is provided in the summary, but relevant data charts are presented. - **Price Spread and Price - Volume Relationship**: No specific data analysis is provided in the summary, but relevant data charts are presented. - **Fresh - Frozen Price Spread and Fresh - Sales Rate**: No specific data analysis is provided in the summary, but relevant data charts are presented. 3.5 Cost and Profit - **Cost and Breeding Profit**: Due to factors such as feed cost and efficiency improvement, the cost has been continuously declining. However, the pig price is the weakest in the same period in recent years, and there has been an overall loss this year [69]. 3.6 Inventory Side - **Cost and Breeding Profit**: The frozen - product inventory is in a state of slow recovery [74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the weakening of ferronickel prices and significant inventory pressure on refined nickel are dragging down nickel prices. If the inventory of refined nickel continues to rise, nickel prices may have limited upside and could even decline further to find a valuation bottom. However, in the long - term, the global fiscal and monetary easing cycle, combined with China's anti - involution policy, will support nickel prices, and the new RKAB approval in the coming year also presents potential positive factors for nickel prices. Thus, short - term investors are advised to wait and see. If the nickel price drops sufficiently (115,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton) or for those with high risk tolerance, they can consider gradually establishing long positions. The short - term price range of the SHFE nickel main contract is expected to be between 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and the LME 3M contract between 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource End**: Nickel ore prices in the Philippines are likely to remain stable in the short - term. Despite weakening demand due to falling domestic ferronickel prices, the approaching rainy season in the main producing areas makes mines reluctant to lower prices. In Indonesia, although the overall supply - demand is loose, the upcoming RKAB quota revision and new RKAB submission in 2026 have led smelters to increase stockpiling, limiting the downside of ore prices [11]. - **Ferronickel**: Ferronickel prices have weakened recently. Slow destocking of stainless steel social inventory and limited support from the peak season on stainless steel prices have led to low procurement willingness among steel enterprises, and the market is starting to price in the pessimistic post - peak season fundamentals, with further price drops expected [11]. - **Intermediate Products**: The supply of market - available intermediate products is tight, strengthening sellers' bargaining power. Some traders have raised quotes, and with the peak demand season in downstream industries, enterprises' raw material procurement demand has increased, leading to a strong MHP coefficient price [11]. - **Refined Nickel**: In September, nickel prices fluctuated. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, but the US economy still showed resilience. In the spot market, trading was average, and the spot premiums of various refined nickel brands remained stable [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Refined Nickel Prices**: The prices of Jinchuan nickel and Russian nickel decreased. The LME and SHFE closing prices also declined, while the spot and three - month price ratios increased. The import loss decreased [16]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory increased slightly, SHFE inventory decreased, and bonded - area inventory remained unchanged. Nickel plate inventory decreased, while nickel bean inventory increased [16]. - **Nickel Spot Premium**: Domestic refined nickel spot premiums fluctuated. As of October 9, the premium of Russian nickel to the near - month contract was 325 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week, and the premium of Jinchuan nickel was 2,200 - 2,500 yuan/ton, with the average price unchanged [22]. - **Secondary Nickel Prices**: Ferronickel prices were slightly weak, with the domestic high - nickel pig iron ex - factory price at 955 yuan/nickel point on October 10, unchanged from before the holiday. Sulfuric acid nickel prices were slightly strong, with the domestic spot price at 283,200 yuan/ton on October 10, up 60 yuan/ton from before the holiday [26]. 3.3 Cost Side - **Nickel Ore**: Domestic port nickel ore inventory continued to increase. As of September 26, the inventory was 1.4094 billion tons, up 0.7% from the previous week. Nickel ore prices remained stable. On October 10, the price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic laterite nickel ore was 52.7 US dollars/wet ton, up 0.5 US dollars/wet ton from before the holiday, and the price of 1.2% - grade ore was unchanged. The price of 1.5% - grade Philippine nickel ore was unchanged [33][36]. - **Ferronickel**: No detailed profit - related analysis was provided in the summary part, but production data charts for Indonesia and China were presented [38]. - **Intermediate Products**: In August, Indonesia's MHP production was 43,000 nickel tons, up 3,000 tons month - on - month, and high - grade nickel matte production was 29,000 nickel tons, up 4,000 tons month - on - month. As of September 26, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP was 13,598 US dollars/metal ton, with the MHP coefficient to LME nickel unchanged, and the high - grade nickel matte price was the same, with the coefficient up 0.01 [43][48]. 3.4 Refined Nickel - **Supply**: In September 2025, China's refined nickel production remained at 37,000 tons, at a historically high level [53]. - **Demand**: Data on stainless steel production, social inventory, and terminal demand in manufacturing and real estate were presented, but no specific demand - side conclusions were drawn [55][57]. - **Import and Export**: No specific import - export analysis was provided in the summary part, but relevant data charts were presented [59]. - **Inventory**: As of September 26, the global visible nickel inventory was 270,000 tons [63]. - **Cost**: Charts on production costs by raw material and profit margins by process were presented, but no specific cost - side conclusions were drawn [65]. 3.5 Sulfuric Acid Nickel - **Supply**: Charts on China's sulfuric acid nickel production and net imports were presented, but no specific supply - side conclusions were drawn [69]. - **Demand**: Charts on ternary power battery loading volume and China's ternary precursor production were presented, but no specific demand - side conclusions were drawn [72]. - **Cost and Price**: Charts on battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel production costs, prices, and profit margins of main raw materials were presented, but no specific cost - price conclusions were drawn [75]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance - **Global Supply Outlook**: A chart of global supply outlook was presented, but no specific analysis was provided [79]. - **Quarterly Supply - Demand Balance Forecast**: From 2023 to 2025, the total supply generally exceeded the total demand. In 2023, the supply - demand surplus was 82,900 nickel tons; in 2024, it was 27,200 nickel tons; and in 2025, it is expected to be 166,400 nickel tons [80].

Report on Manganese Silicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, real - world pressure still suppresses the market, but trading based on expectations of important meetings is still promising. The price of the black sector may first decline to release bearish sentiment and then rise with the expectations of the "Fourth Plenary Session". It is more cost - effective to find retracement points to go long rather than shorting. The black sector may gradually have the value of long - term allocation around mid - October [15]. - Manganese silicon's fundamentals are not ideal with high supply and weak demand in the building materials sector. It may follow the black sector's trend and is difficult to have an independent strong market without major contradictions [15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Data**: As of 2025/10/09, Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price was 5670 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton month - on - month and up 70 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; futures price was 5768 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton month - on - month and up 32 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; basis was 92 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis rate of 1.58% [14][20]. - **Profit and Cost**: Manganese silicon's estimated immediate profit remained low. Inner Mongolia was - 321 yuan/ton, Ningxia was - 438 yuan/ton, and Guangxi was - 621 yuan/ton. The estimated immediate cost in Inner Mongolia was 6001 yuan/ton, Ningxia was 6058 yuan/ton, and Guangxi was 6321 yuan/ton [14][23][30]. - **Supply and Demand**: Weekly output of manganese silicon was 20.42 tons, down 0.22 tons week - on - week. In September 2025, the output was 89.84 tons, down 1.08 tons month - on - month. Weekly output of rebar was 203.4 tons, down 3.62 tons week - on - week. Daily average hot metal output was 241.54 tons, down 0.27 tons week - on - week [14][44][60]. - **Inventory**: The estimated visible inventory of manganese silicon was 51.42 tons, down 0.34 tons month - on - month, still at a high level in the same period [14][72]. 3.2期现市场 - As of 2025/10/09, Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price was 5670 yuan/ton, futures price was 5768 yuan/ton, basis was 92 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of 1.58%, at a relatively neutral level in historical statistics [20]. 3.3 Profit and Cost - **Profit**: As of 2025/10/09, manganese silicon's estimated immediate profit remained low. Inner Mongolia was - 321 yuan/ton, Ningxia was - 438 yuan/ton, and Guangxi was - 621 yuan/ton [23]. - **Cost**: As of 2025/10/09, South African ore was 34.2 yuan/ton - degree, Australian ore was 39.8 yuan/ton - degree, Gabonese ore was 40 yuan/ton - degree, and off - grade metallurgical coke was 1190 yuan/ton. The estimated immediate cost in Inner Mongolia was 6001 yuan/ton, Ningxia was 6058 yuan/ton, and Guangxi was 6321 yuan/ton [26][30]. - **Manganese Ore Import**: In August, manganese ore imports were 348.6 tons, up 74.24 tons month - on - month and up 87.53 tons year - on - year. From January to August, cumulative imports were 2068.88 tons, up 181.7 tons or 9.63% year - on - year [33]. - **Manganese Ore Inventory**: As of 2025/09/26, manganese ore port inventory was 447.8 tons, up 20.6 tons month - on - month. Australian manganese ore port inventory was 66.6 tons, up 1.3 tons month - on - month, and high - grade manganese ore port inventory was 121.9 tons, up 9.2 tons month - on - month [36][39]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Output**: As of 2025/10/09, weekly output of manganese silicon was 20.42 tons, down 0.22 tons week - on - week. In September 2025, the output was 89.84 tons, down 1.08 tons month - on - month [44]. - **Steel Tendering**: In September 2025, HeSteel Group's manganese silicon tender volume was 17000 tons, up 900 tons month - on - month and up 6500 tons year - on - year; the tender price was 6000 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton month - on - month [57]. - **Consumption**: As of 2025/10/09, weekly apparent consumption of manganese silicon was 12.21 tons, down 0.04 tons week - on - week. Weekly output of rebar was 203.4 tons, down 3.62 tons week - on - week. Daily average hot metal output was 241.54 tons, down 0.27 tons week - on - week. In August 2025, national crude steel output was 7737 tons, down 233 tons month - on - month and down 53 tons year - on - year [60][63]. 3.5 Inventory - **Visible Inventory**: As of 2025/10/09, the estimated visible inventory of manganese silicon was 51.42 tons, down 0.34 tons month - on - month, still at a high level in the same period [72]. - **Sample Enterprise Inventory**: As of 2025/10/09, the inventory of 63 sample enterprises was 24.25 tons, up 0.37 tons month - on - month [75]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: In September, the average available days of manganese silicon in steel mills was 15.93 days, up 0.95 days month - on - month, still at a relatively low level in the same period [78]. 3.6 Graphical Trends - In September, manganese silicon's disk price fluctuated within a range, with a monthly decline of 20 yuan/ton or 0.35%. On the daily - line level, it was still in the range of 5600 - 6000 yuan/ton, and its recent trend was weak, close to the lower limit of the range. Attention should be paid to the support around 5600 yuan/ton [81]. Report on Ferrosilicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, real - world pressure still suppresses the market, but trading based on expectations of important meetings is still promising. The price of the black sector may first decline to release bearish sentiment and then rise with the expectations of the "Fourth Plenary Session". It is more cost - effective to find retracement points to go long rather than shorting. The black sector may gradually have the value of long - term allocation around mid - October [98]. - Ferrosilicon's supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions and drivers, and it is likely to follow the black sector's trend, with low operational cost - effectiveness [98]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Data**: As of 2025/10/09, Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon spot price was 5700 yuan/ton, futures price was 5472 yuan/ton, basis was 228 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of 4.00%, at a relatively high level in historical statistics [97][103]. - **Profit and Cost**: Ferrosilicon's estimated immediate profit declined significantly. Inner Mongolia was - 581 yuan/ton, Ningxia was - 497 yuan/ton, and Qinghai was - 584 yuan/ton. The estimated production cost in main producing areas was basically stable [97][108][114]. - **Supply and Demand**: Weekly output of ferrosilicon was 11.58 tons, basically stable week - on - week. In September 2025, the output was 48.82 tons, down 0.51 tons month - on - month. Daily average hot metal output was 241.54 tons, down 0.27 tons week - on - week. From January to September 2025, cumulative output of magnesium metal was 62.09 tons, down 3.13 tons year - on - year. From January to August 2025, cumulative exports of ferrosilicon were 27.1 tons, down 1.89 tons or 6.52% year - on - year [97][119][131]. - **Inventory**: The estimated visible inventory of ferrosilicon was 14.96 tons, up 0.23 tons month - on - month, at a relatively high level in the same period [97][142]. 3.2期现市场 - As of 2025/10/09, Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon spot price was 5700 yuan/ton, futures price was 5472 yuan/ton, basis was 228 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of 4.00%, at a relatively high level in historical statistics [103]. 3.3 Profit and Cost** - **Profit**: As of 2025/10/09, ferrosilicon's estimated immediate profit declined significantly. Inner Mongolia was - 581 yuan/ton, Ningxia was - 497 yuan/ton, and Qinghai was - 584 yuan/ton [108]. - **Cost**: As of 2025/10/09, the price of silica in the northwest region was 210 yuan/ton, and the price of semi - coke small materials was 750 yuan/ton, both stable month - on - month. The estimated production cost in main producing areas was basically stable [111][114]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Output**: As of 2025/10/09, weekly output of ferrosilicon was 11.58 tons, basically stable week - on - week. In September 2025, the output was 48.82 tons, down 0.51 tons month - on - month [119]. - **Steel Tendering**: In September 2025, HeSteel Group's 75B ferrosilicon alloy tender volume was 3151 tons, up 316 tons month - on - month and up 650 tons year - on - year; the tender price was 5800 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton month - on - month [125]. - **Steel Consumption**: As of 2025/10/09, daily average hot metal output was 241.54 tons, down 0.27 tons week - on - week. In August 2025, national crude steel output was 7737 tons, down 233 tons month - on - month and down 53 tons year - on - year [128]. - **Non - steel Consumption**: From January to September 2025, cumulative output of magnesium metal was 62.09 tons, down 3.13 tons year - on - year. As of 2025/10/09, the price of magnesium metal in Fugu area was 16450 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton month - on - month. From January to August 2025, cumulative exports of ferrosilicon were 27.1 tons, down 1.89 tons or 6.52% year - on - year. As of 2025/10/09, the estimated export profit of ferrosilicon was - 15 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level in the same period. From January to August 2025, the total output of overseas crude steel was 5.57 billion tons, down 300 million tons or 0.54% year - on - year [131][134][135]. 3.5 Inventory - **Visible Inventory**: As of 2025/10/09, the estimated visible inventory of ferrosilicon was 14.96 tons, up 0.23 tons month - on - month, at a relatively high level in the same period [142]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: In September, the average available days of ferrosilicon in steel mills was 15.52 days, up 0.85 days month - on - month, still at a relatively low level in the same period [145]. 3.6 Graphical Trends - In September, ferrosilicon's disk price fluctuated within a range, with a monthly decline of 62 yuan/ton or 1.12%. On the daily - line level, it was still in the range of 5400 - 5800 yuan/ton, and its recent trend was weak, with five consecutive negative daily lines and once breaking through the support at 5400 yuan/ton to reach a new low. Attention should be paid to the support around 5400 yuan/ton [150].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the aluminum price showed internal and external divergence, with SHFE aluminum down 0.17% and LME aluminum up 2.79%. Fundamentally, the profit of primary aluminum smelting is at a historical high, but the room for the increase of domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is limited. On the demand side, the operating rate of aluminum products has recovered in the peak season. Although there is still uncertainty in demand, under the expectation of the increase in the proportion of molten aluminum, the expectation of ingot inventory accumulation is not strong. Coupled with the tight overseas spot, the aluminum price is expected to rise in the shock. This month, the operating range of the main contract of SHFE aluminum is expected to be between 20,500 - 21,800 yuan/ton; the operating range of LME aluminum 3M is expected to be between 2,600 - 2,900 US dollars/ton [12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply side: As of the end of September, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 44.06 million tons. The commissioning of some electrolytic aluminum replacement projects led to a slight increase in the operating capacity. In September, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.1% year-on-year and decreased by 3.2% month-on-month. In October, the electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is expected to continue to increase slightly. In September, the domestic molten aluminum ratio rebounded by 1.2% month-on-month, and the electrolytic aluminum ingot casting volume decreased by 8.7% year-on-year and 7.9% month-on-month to about 857,000 tons [12]. - Inventory & Spot: At the end of September, the spot inventory of aluminum ingots was 587,000 tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons month-on-month. The bonded area inventory was 88,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons month-on-month. The total inventory of aluminum rods was 124,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons month-on-month. The global LME aluminum inventory was 511,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons month-on-month, at a low level in the same period of previous years. The spot discount of domestic East China aluminum ingots to futures was 20 yuan/ton, and the LME market Cash/3M discount was 1.6 US dollars/ton [12]. - Import and Export: In August 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 534,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1%. In September, the spot import loss of aluminum ingots widened month-on-month, and the export advantage of aluminum products increased [12]. - Demand side: According to SMM research, the comprehensive PMI of aluminum processing in September was 55.7%, an increase of 2.4% month-on-month. Many sectors such as aluminum plates, aluminum foils, and industrial profiles were in the expansion range, with good performance in production and new orders; however, the demand for building materials and building profiles was weak due to the impact of real estate and funds, showing a differentiated trend in the industry [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: In September, SHFE aluminum fluctuated, down 0.17% for the month; LME aluminum rose 2.79% for the month. At the beginning of October, the aluminum prices of both domestic and overseas markets strengthened again [20]. - Term Spread: In September, the spread between the first and third contracts of SHFE aluminum converged [25]. - Spot Basis: In September, the spot in East and South China was at a discount to futures most of the time, while the Central China region turned to a premium [29]. - Regional Premium and Discount Spread: In September, the spot in Central China was relatively stronger [35]. - LME Premium and Discount: In September, the LME aluminum Cash/3M fluctuated around par [39]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Profit: In September, the profit of primary aluminum smelting increased month-on-month and was at a historical high [43]. - Inventory: - Aluminum Ingot Inventory: At the end of September, the spot inventory of aluminum ingots was 587,000 tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons month-on-month. At the beginning of October, the inventory rebounded [48]. - Bonded Area Inventory: At the end of September, the bonded area inventory was 88,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons month-on-month [48]. - Aluminum Rod Inventory: At the end of September, the total inventory of aluminum rods was 124,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons month-on-month. During the National Day holiday, the inventory increased significantly [51]. - LME Inventory: At the end of September, the global LME aluminum inventory was 511,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons month-on-month, at a low level in the same period of previous years [56]. 3.4 Cost Side - Bauxite Price: In September, the domestic bauxite price decreased by 4 yuan/ton month-on-month [67]. - Alumina Price: In September, the domestic alumina price decreased by 210 yuan/ton month-on-month, and the import price decreased by 41 US dollars/ton [70]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Cost: In September, the anode price remained flat, and the thermal coal price increased slightly by 10 yuan/ton month-on-month [74]. 3.5 Supply Side - Alumina: In September, the output of metallurgical - grade alumina increased by 1.5% month-on-month and 10.0% year-on-year. As of the end of September, the built - in capacity of alumina was about 110.32 million tons, the operating capacity increased by 1.5% month-on-month, and the operating rate was 80.2% [80]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: As of the end of September, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 44.06 million tons. The commissioning of some electrolytic aluminum replacement projects led to a slight increase in the operating capacity. In September, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.1% year-on-year and decreased by 3.2% month-on-month. In October, the electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is expected to continue to increase slightly. In September, the overseas electrolytic aluminum production increased by 2.9% year-on-year [83]. - Molten Aluminum Ratio: In September, the domestic molten aluminum ratio rebounded by 1.2% month-on-month, and the electrolytic aluminum ingot casting volume decreased by 8.7% year-on-year and 7.9% month-on-month to about 857,000 tons. It is expected that the molten aluminum ratio will continue to increase in October [86]. - Provincial Output of Electrolytic Aluminum: In September, the electrolytic aluminum output of each province decreased compared with August, among which Shandong's output decreased by 38,400 tons [91]. 3.6 Demand Side - Downstream Operating Rate: - In September, the operating rate of aluminum profiles decreased slightly month-on-month, and the operating rate of aluminum plates and foils rebounded in August [102]. - In September, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy ingots rebounded month-on-month, and the operating rate of aluminum rods rebounded month-on-month in August [105]. - In August, the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was weak. In September, the price difference between primary and recycled aluminum narrowed by 194 yuan/ton to 230 yuan/ton [108]. - Terminal Demand: According to the production scheduling reports of the three major white goods released by Industry Online, in October 2025, the production scheduling of household air conditioners was 1.153 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 18.0%, with the decline expanding, and the month-on-month trend was stable; the production scheduling of refrigerators was 863,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 5.8%, with the decline narrowing slightly; the production scheduling of washing machines was 908,000 units, a slight year-on-year decrease of 1.6%. Currently, the real estate data is still weak, the production and sales of automobiles are acceptable, and the production scheduling of photovoltaic modules is stable [112]. 3.7 Import and Export - Import: - In August 2025, China's imports of primary aluminum were 217,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 12.3% and a year-on-year increase of 33.1%. From January to August, the cumulative imports were 1.714 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%. In September, the spot import loss of aluminum ingots widened [117]. - In August, the imports of aluminum ingots mainly came from Russia, Indonesia, India, Malaysia, Australia, etc. Among them, the imports from Russia accounted for 63%, and the imports from India increased to 15% [121]. - Export: In August 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 534,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1%; from January to August, the cumulative exports were 4 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.2% [125]. - Other Imports and Exports: - In August 2025, China's imports of bauxite were 18.289 million tons, with the imported ore accounting for 75.70%. From January to August, the cumulative imports of bauxite were 141.49 million tons [128]. - In August 2025, China's exports of alumina were 180,500 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 21.3% and a year-on-year increase of 26.0%. From January to August, the cumulative exports of alumina were 1.753 million tons [128].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September 2025, the domestic tin price showed a generally oscillating and strengthening trend, and it increased significantly at the beginning of October due to Indonesia's crackdown on illegal tin mines. - In the short - term, the shortage of tin supply is obvious, and the tin price is expected to remain stable at a high level. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production progress in Myanmar at the end of October [11][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost side: Although the mining permits in the Wa State of Myanmar have been approved, the resumption of production is slow. It is expected that the supply of tin ore will significantly recover in the fourth quarter. In August 2025, China's imported tin concentrate physical volume was 10,267 tons, unchanged from the previous month. Imports from countries such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Russia, and Bolivia decreased slightly due to shipping factors, while imports from Myanmar increased. Imports from other regions remained at previous levels [11]. - Supply side: The resumption of tin mines in the Wa State of Myanmar is slow and difficult to increase production before November. Raw material shortages in Yunnan's smelting enterprises still persist. In addition, a large - scale smelting enterprise in Yunnan started maintenance in September, leading to a significant decline in the operating rate in Yunnan this week. In Jiangxi, due to a significant reduction in scrap and insufficient supply of crude tin, the refined tin output remained at a low level. It is estimated that the domestic refined tin output in September will decrease by 29.89% month - on - month [11]. - Demand side: The new energy vehicle and AI server sectors continue to be booming, but the demand in traditional consumer electronics and home appliances, which account for the majority of demand, remains sluggish. The total production volume of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in September 2025 was 27.07 million units, a 7.2% decrease compared to the same period last year. In the short - term, with the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, downstream consumption has marginally improved, and the operating rate of domestic sample tin solder enterprises rebounded to 73.22% in August [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market No specific text summary content provided, only relevant graphs about the basis of Shanghai tin main contract and LME tin premium (0 - 3) are presented [19]. 3.3 Cost Side - The short - term supply of tin ore is generally tight, and the processing fees remain at a low level [27]. 3.4 Supply Side - The resumption of tin mines in the Wa State of Myanmar is slow, and it is difficult to increase production before November. Yunnan's smelting enterprises face raw material shortages, and a large - scale smelting enterprise's maintenance in September led to a significant decline in the operating rate in Yunnan. In Jiangxi, due to a reduction in scrap, the supply of crude tin is insufficient, and the refined tin output remains low. It is estimated that the domestic refined tin output in September will decrease by 29.89% month - on - month [11]. 3.5 Demand Side - The new energy vehicle and AI server sectors continue to be booming, but the demand in traditional consumer electronics and home appliances remains sluggish. The total production volume of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in September 2025 decreased by 7.2% compared to the same period last year. - The year - on - year growth rate of China's semiconductor sales has slightly rebounded, and global semiconductor sales maintain high growth. - Tin consumption in the tinplate field continues to decline, mainly because aluminum cans have almost completely replaced tinplate cans in the beverage packaging field. The PVC output increased slightly year - on - year in the first half of the year [11][46][57]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance - Inventory: The social inventory of tin ingots continued to decline. Last Friday, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 8,352 tons, a decrease of 686 tons compared to September 19 [11][13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report From September 1st to October 10th, the Shanghai Zinc Index rebounded after a decline, closing up 0.25% at 22,290 yuan/ton, with a decrease in total positions by 12,500 lots. LME zinc closed up 6.53% at $3,002.5/ton. The domestic zinc ore's explicit inventory is decreasing, and the domestic TC is declining again. Although the imported TC continues to rise, the current low Shanghai-London ratio limits its upward space, alleviating the zinc ore surplus. Both domestic and overseas zinc ingot inventories are decreasing. After the holiday, the cancelled warrants have risen again, and the delivery pressure is pushing up the LME zinc spread and price, opening the zinc ingot export window. Recently, precious metals and non-ferrous metals have been performing strongly, and after the export window opened, some short positions on the domestic exchange closed, causing Shanghai zinc to rise with reduced positions. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will perform strongly in the short term [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment - **Price Review**: From September 1st to October 10th, the Shanghai Zinc Index closed up 0.25% at 22,290 yuan/ton, with a decrease in total positions by 12,500 lots. LME zinc closed up 6.53% at $3,002.5/ton. As of the report's end, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was 22,140 yuan/ton. The domestic social inventory slightly increased to 150,200 tons [11]. - **Industry Data**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 3,650 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index was 116 dollars/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 303,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory was 629,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rates of galvanized structural parts, die-cast zinc alloys, and zinc oxide were 55.82%, 49.73%, and 58.45% respectively [11]. - **Overall Outlook**: The domestic and overseas zinc ingot inventories are decreasing, and the delivery pressure is pushing up the LME zinc spread and price, opening the export window. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will perform strongly in the short term [11]. 3.2 Macro Analysis The report presents multiple charts related to the US fiscal and debt situation, the Fed's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, manufacturing PMIs of China and the US, and new and unfinished orders in the US manufacturing and non-ferrous metal industries, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [14][16][19][20]. 3.3 Supply Analysis - **Zinc Ore Supply**: In August 2025, the domestic zinc ore output was 344,800 metal tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.6%. The net import of zinc ore was 467,300 dry tons, a year-on-year increase of 30.8% and a month-on-month decrease of 6.5%. The total domestic zinc ore supply was 555,100 metal tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.4% and a month-on-month decrease of 2.9% [25][27]. - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In September 2025, the domestic zinc ingot output was 600,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 20.2% and a month-on-month decrease of 4.2%. In August, the net import of zinc ingots was 27,900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0% and a month-on-month increase of 37.2%. The total domestic zinc ingot supply in August was 654,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 27.1% and a month-on-month increase of 5.0% [33][35]. - **Profit Distribution**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 3,650 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index was 116 dollars/dry ton [29]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Initial - stage Operating Rates**: The weekly operating rates of galvanized structural parts, die-cast zinc alloys, and zinc oxide were 55.82%, 49.73%, and 58.45% respectively. Their raw material and finished product inventories were also reported [40]. - **Apparent Demand**: In August 2025, the domestic zinc ingot's apparent demand was 599,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.8% and a month-on-month increase of 0.6% [42]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Zinc Ingot Balance**: In August 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 54,400 tons, and the cumulative supply - demand difference from January to August was a surplus of 142,600 tons [53]. - **Overseas Zinc Ingot Balance**: In July 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a surplus of 3,000 tons, and the cumulative supply - demand difference from January to July was a surplus of 28,200 tons [56]. 3.6 Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The domestic social inventory slightly increased to 150,200 tons. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 58,900 tons, the domestic Shanghai - area basis was - 35 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 35 yuan/ton [61]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 38,300 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 15,400 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was $59.11/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was $82.75/ton [64]. - **Cross - market Structure**: The post - exchange - rate - adjusted Shanghai - London ratio was 1.034, and the zinc ingot import profit and loss was - 4,167.68 yuan/ton [67]. - **Position Analysis**: The net short position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai zinc decreased, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises increased. From a position perspective, it is short - term bullish [70].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - From September 1st to October 10th, the Shanghai Lead Index fluctuated upwards, with the total position decreasing. The LME Lead also rose. The domestic lead ingot factory and social inventories declined continuously. Considering the strong performance of precious metals and non - ferrous metals recently, the sector sentiment is positive. It is expected that the Shanghai Lead will oscillate widely at a low level in the short term [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment - **Price Review**: From September 1st to October 10th, the Shanghai Lead Index rose 1.57% to 17,140 yuan/ton, with a 0.46 - thousand - hand decrease in total positions. The LME Lead rose 1.63% to 2,026.5 dollars/ton. As of the report end, the SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,800 yuan/ton, the recycled refined lead average price was 16,775 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread was 25 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 30.1 thousand tons, the domestic primary basis was - 120 yuan/ton, and the continuous - first - continuous contract spread was - 15 yuan/ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 236.1 thousand tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 49.6 thousand tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 37.3 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 74.2 dollars/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London ratio was 1.193, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was - 358.36 yuan/ton. The domestic social inventory decreased to 35.8 thousand tons [11]. - **Industry Data**: At the primary end, the lead concentrate port inventory was 17 thousand tons, the factory inventory was 432 thousand tons (equivalent to 26.0 days). The lead concentrate import TC was - 110 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 350 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting start - up rate was 66.49%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 3 thousand tons. At the recycled end, the lead scrap inventory was 94 thousand tons, the weekly output of recycled lead ingots was 31 thousand tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 10 thousand tons. The lead battery start - up rate was 71.62% [11]. - **Overall Outlook**: At the primary end, the visible lead ore inventory declined again, with a slower inventory accumulation rate than in previous years, and the lead concentrate processing fees continued to decline. Although raw material shortages restricted primary smelting start - up, the start - up rate was still higher than in previous years. At the recycled end, the scrap inventory increased slightly, and the decline in raw material prices promoted the repair of recycled smelting profits, with a slight recovery in recycled start - up. The downstream battery enterprises' start - up was higher than in previous years. After the battery inventory pressure decreased, downstream purchases increased slightly. The domestic lead ingot factory and social inventories decreased continuously, and combined with the recent strong performance of precious metals and non - ferrous metals, the sector sentiment was good [11]. 2. Primary Supply - **Imports and Production**: In August 2025, the net import of lead concentrates was 134.8 thousand physical tons, a 15.9% year - on - year change and a 10.4% month - on - month change. From January to August, the cumulative net import of lead concentrates was 919.7 thousand physical tons, a 31.5% cumulative year - on - year change. The net import of silver concentrates in August was 185 thousand physical tons, a 15.8% year - on - year change and a 20.0% month - on - month change. From January to August, the cumulative net import of silver concentrates was 1,191.1 thousand physical tons, a 6.3% cumulative year - on - year change. In August, China's lead concentrate production was 156.1 thousand metal tons, a 13.9% year - on - year change and a 1.0% month - on - month change. From January to August, the total lead concentrate production was 1,097.7 thousand metal tons, an 11.8% cumulative year - on - year change. The net import of lead - containing ores in August was 154.9 thousand metal tons, a 15.8% year - on - year change and a 14.8% month - on - month change. From January to August, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ores was 1,028.2 thousand metal tons, an 18.5% cumulative year - on - year change [15][17]. - **Total Supply**: In August 2025, China's total lead concentrate supply was 311 thousand metal tons, a 14.9% year - on - year change and a 7.4% month - on - month change. From January to August, the cumulative lead concentrate supply was 2,125.9 thousand metal tons, a 14.9% cumulative year - on - year change. In June 2025, the global lead ore production was 395.9 thousand tons, a 1.4% year - on - year change and a 4.1% month - on - month change. From January to June, the total global lead ore production was 2,256.5 thousand tons, a 4.6% cumulative year - on - year change [19]. - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: The lead concentrate port inventory was 17 thousand tons, and the factory inventory was 432 thousand tons (equivalent to 26.0 days). The lead concentrate import TC was - 110 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 350 yuan/metal ton [21][23]. - **Smelting Start - up and Output**: The primary smelting start - up rate was 66.49%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 3 thousand tons. In September 2025, China's primary lead production was 327.8 thousand tons, a 12.4% year - on - year change and a 1.0% month - on - month change. From January to September, the total primary lead ingot production was 2,860.9 thousand tons, an 8.3% cumulative year - on - year change [26]. 3. Recycled Supply - **Raw Materials and Output**: At the recycled end, the lead scrap inventory was 86.4 thousand tons. The weekly output of recycled lead ingots was 31.9 thousand tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 9.8 thousand tons. In September 2025, China's recycled lead production was 317 thousand tons, a 5.5% year - on - year change and a - 1.0% month - on - month change. From January to September, the total recycled lead ingot production was 2,888.8 thousand tons, a 1.7% cumulative year - on - year change [31][33]. - **Imports and Total Supply**: In August 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 11.3 thousand tons, an - 86.1% year - on - year change and a - 10.5% month - on - month change. From January to August, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 67.8 thousand tons, a - 43.2% cumulative year - on - year change. In August, the domestic total lead ingot supply was 656.2 thousand tons, a - 5.4% year - on - year change and a 0.3% month - on - month change. From January to August, the domestic cumulative lead ingot supply was 5,172.7 thousand tons, a 3.3% cumulative year - on - year change [35]. 4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Start - up and Demand**: The lead battery start - up rate was 71.62%. In August 2025, the apparent domestic lead ingot demand was 639.3 thousand tons, a - 5.3% year - on - year change and a - 1.9% month - on - month change. From January to August, the domestic cumulative apparent lead ingot demand was 5,117.7 thousand tons, a 1.6% cumulative year - on - year change [40]. - **Battery Exports**: In August 2025, the net export quantity of batteries was 1.78165 million, and the net export weight was 97.9 thousand tons. The estimated net export of lead in batteries was 61.2 thousand tons, an - 11.3% year - on - year change and an - 8.2% month - on - month change. From January to August, the total net export of lead in batteries was 494.1 thousand tons, a - 4.4% cumulative year - on - year change [43]. - **Inventory Changes**: In August 2025, the lead battery finished product factory inventory decreased from 21.8 days to 20.5 days, and the dealer lead battery inventory days decreased from 44.6 days to 42 days [45]. - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly affected new installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway improved the new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand was expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles were replacing lead - acid starting batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles led to high replacement demand, and the starting battery start - up rate remained relatively high. In the base station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations drove the steady increase in lead - acid battery demand [49][51][54]. 5. Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Balance**: In August 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 16.9 thousand tons. From January to August, the domestic cumulative lead ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 55 thousand tons [63]. - **Overseas Balance**: In July 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand difference was a shortage of - 8 thousand tons. From January to July, the overseas cumulative refined lead supply - demand difference was a shortage of - 53.9 thousand tons [66]. 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The domestic social inventory decreased to 35.8 thousand tons. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 30.1 thousand tons, the domestic primary basis was - 120 yuan/ton, and the continuous - first - continuous contract spread was - 15 yuan/ton [71]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 236.1 thousand tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 49.6 thousand tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 37.3 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 74.2 dollars/ton [74]. - **Price Ratios and Profits**: After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London ratio was 1.193, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was - 358.36 yuan/ton [77]. - **Position Analysis**: The top 20 net positions of Shanghai Lead turned slightly net short, the net long positions of LME Lead investment funds increased, and the net short positions of commercial enterprises increased. From a position perspective, the short - term guidance was bearish [80].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - Eleven - OPEC meeting production increase resolution landed, Fed rate - cut expectation in October rose again. Cost - end crude oil and LPG prices were under pressure, polyolefin overall profit was poor, and upper - middle stream inventory at high levels started to decline. The main contradiction in the polyolefin fundamentals was the divergence in the supply of the 2601 contract. Polyethylene had only 400,000 tons of planned production capacity, while polypropylene faced greater pressure (1.45 million tons of planned production capacity). With the seasonal peak season, the LL - PP spread was expected to continue to fluctuate and strengthen. It was recommended to buy the LL - PP spread at low prices [16][17][18] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Valuation**: After the OPEC meeting during the National Day holiday, the production increase resolution was implemented, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in October rose again [16] - **Cost - end**: WTI crude oil fell by 0.13%, Brent crude oil fell by 0.21%, coal price remained unchanged at 0.00%, methanol fell by 2.60%, ethylene fell by 4.69%, propylene fell by 4.40%, and propane fell by 10.08%. Oil prices fluctuated at a low level, and the impact of the cost - end was relatively small. The trading logic of the futures market was strongly affected by macro - sentiment [16] - **Supply - end**: PE capacity utilization was 83.6%, up 3.89% month - on - month, 1.83% year - on - year, and 10.07% lower than the five - year average for the same period. PP capacity utilization was 77.29%, down 3.38% month - on - month, 0.25% year - on - year, and 9.92% lower than the five - year average for the same period. There was a divergence in the supply of the polyolefin 2601 contract. Polyethylene had only 400,000 tons of planned production capacity, while polypropylene faced greater pressure (1.45 million tons of planned production capacity) [16] - **Import and Export**: In August, domestic PE imports were 950,200 tons, down 14.17% month - on - month and 22.11% year - on - year. PP imports were 159,600 tons, down 22.23% month - on - month and year - on - year. The export peak season arrived. In August, PE exports were 116,000 tons, up 14.12% month - on - month and 61.83% year - on - year. PP exports were 250,200 tons, up 5.99% month - on - month and 32.77% year - on - year [16] - **Demand - end**: PE downstream operating rate was 45%, up 9.60% month - on - month and 0.76% year - on - year. PP downstream operating rate was 52.00%, up 3.52% month - on - month and 1.90% year - on - year. During the seasonal peak season, the overall operating rate reached the level of the same period in previous years [17] - **Inventory**: PE production enterprise inventory was 382,700 tons, with a month - on - month destocking of 15.11% and a year - on - year destocking of 18.21%. PE trader inventory was 46,700 tons, with a month - on - month destocking of 20.25% and a year - on - year destocking of 8.43%. PP production enterprise inventory was 520,300 tons, with a month - on - month destocking of 3.38% and a year - on - year destocking of 4.93%. PP trader inventory was 187,200 tons, with a month - on - month inventory build - up of 11.30% and a year - on - year inventory build - up of 52.82%. PP port inventory was 66,500 tons, with a month - on - month inventory build - up of 10.28% and a year - on - year inventory build - up of 0.91% [17] - **Next - month Forecast**: The reference fluctuation range for polyethylene (L2601) was (7200 - 7500), and for polypropylene (PP2601) was (6900 - 7200) [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy the LL - PP spread at low prices [18] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - The 2601 contract had a mismatch in production plans. It was recommended to buy the LL - PP spread at low prices [64] 3.3 Cost - end - Crude oil prices fluctuated at the bottom. The prices of WTI and Brent crude oil, coal, methanol, ethylene, propylene, and propane all had different degrees of decline or remained unchanged [16][85] 3.4 Polyethylene Supply - end - **Production Raw Material Proportion**: The production raw materials of PE included oil - based, coal - based, methanol - based, and light - hydrocarbon - based, with different proportions [126][128] - **Capacity and Production**: The national PE capacity and production had changed over the years, and there were also new production capacity plans in 2025. Some projects had been put into production, and some were yet to be put into production [131][132] - **Capacity Utilization**: The PE capacity utilization rate had fluctuations over time [133] - **Maintenance Plan**: There were many PE maintenance plans, including planned and unplanned maintenance, and the current week's maintenance volume and return volume were also provided [138] 3.5 Polyethylene Inventory & Import and Export - **Inventory**: The total inventory, production enterprise inventory, two - oil inventory, and trader inventory of PE all showed different trends over time [142][145] - **Import**: The monthly and cumulative import volumes of PE had changed over the years [148][150] - **Export**: The monthly export volumes of PE and LLDPE also had different trends [153] 3.6 Polyethylene Demand - end - **Downstream Demand Proportion**: The downstream demand for polyethylene was mainly concentrated in packaging film, hollow products, pipes, injection molding, agricultural film, etc [160] - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The overall downstream operating rate of PE and the operating rates of different downstream industries such as packaging film, pipes, and hollow products all had fluctuations [169][174] - **Related Indicators**: Indicators such as CPI and downstream demand cumulative year - on - year also provided information on the demand situation [165][167]

Report Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint In October, iron ore prices will be dragged down by terminal demand. After the end - of - Q3 shipping rush, overseas mines' shipments are expected to decline seasonally, and arrivals are also expected to decrease. Steel mills' hot metal production remains high, but downstream terminal demand is weak. After the pre - holiday restocking, the contradiction between high hot metal production and terminal demand will accumulate. If the finished product inventory pressure increases and steel prices adjust downward, the raw material prices will be under pressure, and port inventories are expected to increase slightly. Attention should be paid to the policy directions from the Fourth Plenary Session in late October and the potential impact of sudden news on prices [13][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: In September, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments was 32.8238 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 48,400 tons. The weekly average of Australian shipments to China via 19 ports was 16.091 million tons, an increase of 1.4708 million tons; Brazilian shipments had a weekly average of 7.531 million tons, a decrease of 1.3968 million tons. The weekly average of arrivals at 45 ports was 24.6145 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 43,300 tons [13]. - **Demand**: The estimated daily average domestic hot metal production in September was 2.4017 million tons, an increase of 12,000 tons compared to the previous month [13]. - **Inventory**: At the end of September, the imported iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 139.7779 million tons, an increase of 2.1477 million tons; the weekly average of daily ore removal at 45 ports was 3.3116 million tons, an increase of 1.044 million tons. The weekly average of daily consumption of imported iron ore by steel mills was 2.9351 million tons, a decrease of 450,000 tons [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price Spreads**: At the end of September, the PB - Super Special powder spread was 71 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 37 yuan/ton; the Carajás - PB powder spread was 139 yuan/ton, an increase of 27 yuan/ton; the Carajás - Jinbuba powder spread was 185 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan/ton; the ((Carajás + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) spread was 34 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan/ton [19][22]. - **Feed Ratio and Scrap Steel**: At the end of September, the pellet feed ratio was 15.16%, a decrease of 0.48 percentage points; the lump ore feed ratio was 12.06%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points; the sinter feed ratio was 72.78%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points. The Tangshan scrap steel price was 2,245 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the Zhangjiagang scrap steel price was 2,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton [25]. - **Profit**: At the end of September, the steel mill profitability rate was 58.01%, a decrease of 5.63 percentage points [28]. 3. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: At the end of September, the imported iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 139.7779 million tons, an increase of 2.1477 million tons; pellet inventory was 2.7865 million tons, a decrease of 47,200 tons; iron concentrate inventory was 10.8306 million tons, a decrease of 295,300 tons; lump ore inventory was 17.2213 million tons, an increase of 682,300 tons; Australian ore port inventory was 59.1619 million tons, a decrease of 621,200 tons; Brazilian ore port inventory was 53.5452 million tons, an increase of 3.1776 million tons [35][38][41]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: At the end of September, the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 97.3639 million tons, an increase of 7.292 million tons [43]. 4. Supply Side - **Overseas Shipments**: In September, the weekly average of Australian shipments to China via 19 ports was 16.091 million tons, an increase of 1.4708 million tons; Brazilian shipments had a weekly average of 7.531 million tons, a decrease of 1.3968 million tons. Rio Tinto's weekly average shipments were 6.319 million tons, an increase of 428,000 tons; BHP's were 5.4408 million tons, an increase of 192,400 tons; Vale's were 5.3985 million tons, a decrease of 1.2485 million tons; FMG's were 4.1385 million tons, an increase of 509,700 tons [49][52][55]. - **Arrivals and Imports**: In September, the weekly average of arrivals at 45 ports was 24.6145 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 43,300 tons. In August, China's non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore imports were 16.899 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 622,700 tons [58]. - **Domestic Mines**: At the end of September, the domestic mine capacity utilization rate was 61.27%, an increase of 1.28 percentage points; the daily average output of iron concentrate from domestic mines was 478,500 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons [61]. 5. Demand Side - **Hot Metal Production**: The estimated domestic hot metal production in September was 72.05 million tons, with a daily average of 2.4017 million tons, an increase of 12,000 tons compared to the previous month. At the end of September, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.86%, an increase of 0.84 percentage points [66]. - **Ore Removal and Consumption**: In September, the weekly average of daily ore removal at 45 ports was 3.3116 million tons, an increase of 1.044 million tons. The weekly average of daily consumption of imported iron ore by steel mills was 2.9351 million tons, a decrease of 450,000 tons [69]. 6. Basis As of September 30, the calculated basis of the iron ore BRBF main contract was 54.21 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 6.49% [74].