投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-07-31 7月政治局会议落地，投资者重新关注消费 有⾊观点：7⽉政治局会议落地，投资者重新关注消费 交易逻辑：7月政治局会议基本符合预期，潜在增量刺激政策还需等 待，市场关注点逐步重新转向消费走弱；美欧达成15%关税，中美关 税进一步延期，整体来看，美国关税政策还未完全明朗，另外国内增 量刺激政策预期延后。供需面来看，基本金属供需逐步季节性趋松， 国内库存逐步季节性回升。中短期来看，关税不确定性及需求走弱预 期压制价格，但低库存及供应扰动对价格有支撑，主要关注结构性机 会，谨慎关注铝锡低吸短多机会，逢高沽空锌锭；同时，密切留意美 铜进口关税落地情况，若真在7月底执行50%进口关税，则铜价可能会 面临短时抛压，中长期来看，基本金属需求前景仍存在不确定性， 可关注部分供需偏过剩或者预期过剩品种的逢高沽空机会。 铜观点：政治局会议落地，铜价震荡运⾏。 氧化铝观点：仓单⼩幅增⻓，氧化铝延续宽幅震荡。 铝观点：累库趋势延续，铝价窄幅震荡。 铝合⾦观点：淡季氛围浓厚，盘⾯⾼位震荡。 锌观点："反内卷"情绪再起VS库存累积，锌价震荡运 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating with a slight upward trend [4] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [4] - **Corn and Starch**: Oscillating [4] - **Hogs**: Oscillating [5] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [7] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating with a slight downward trend [10] - **Cotton**: Oscillating, with a reverse spread in the monthly price difference [11] - **Sugar**: Oscillating with a long - term downward trend [12] - **Pulp**: Oscillating with an upward trend [13] - **Logs**: Oscillating with a slight downward trend [15] 2. Core Views of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of multiple agricultural products, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, hogs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs. It points out that the prices of these products are affected by various factors such as macro - environment, supply - demand relationship, and policies. In the short term, the prices of most products will continue to oscillate, and the long - term trends vary depending on the specific product's supply - demand situation and market expectations. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Outlook of Each Product 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Yesterday, rapeseed oil was strong. Pay attention to the performance at the technical resistance level. - **Logic**: Favorable weather in the US soybean - growing areas has increased the expectation of a bumper harvest. The US and the EU have reached a trade agreement, and the US dollar has strengthened. The price of crude oil has risen due to concerns about the interruption of Russian oil supply. The production of palm oil is in the increasing season, and the export of Malaysian palm oil has decreased. The inventory of domestic rapeseed oil is high, and the import situation of domestic rapeseed remains uncertain. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the oil market may oscillate with a slight upward trend as market sentiment stabilizes [4]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **View**: The market sentiment is bullish, and rapeseed meal leads the protein sector. - **Logic**: Sino - US negotiations have not made substantial progress. The excellent rate of US soybeans is high, and the future weather is favorable for a bumper harvest. The short - term supply of domestic soybeans is sufficient, but the supply in the fourth quarter is expected to be short. The consumption of soybean meal may increase steadily. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to maintain a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The near - month contracts will mainly fluctuate within a range, while the far - month contracts will strengthen [4]. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - **View**: Oscillating within a range, waiting for new guidance. - **Logic**: The supply of old - crop corn is expected to tighten in July - August, and the demand from downstream industries is weak. The production of new - crop corn is normal, and the supply from abroad is abundant. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the price may rebound due to the reduction of old - crop inventory. After the new - crop corn is listed, the price is expected to decline [4]. 3.1.4 Hogs - **View**: At the end of the month, the price movement slows down, and the hog price oscillates within a narrow range. - **Logic**: In the short term, large - scale farms are actively selling hogs, but small - scale farmers still have the intention to fatten. In the medium term, the supply of hogs is expected to increase in the second half of the year. In the long term, policies are expected to drive capacity reduction. The terminal consumption demand is limited, and the inventory pressure is high. - **Outlook**: Oscillating. The near - month market is still affected by over - capacity, while the long - term market is expected to strengthen due to capacity reduction policies [5]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: After the macro - event is settled, short - term observation is still needed. - **Logic**: The market sentiment was affected by the Politburo meeting. The supply of raw materials is limited due to the rainy season, and the demand is relatively stable. - **Outlook**: In the short term, it will follow the overall commodity sentiment, and attention should be paid to changes in capital sentiment [7]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The fundamental variables are limited, and the market oscillates with a slight downward trend. - **Logic**: The BR market oscillated weakly yesterday due to a slight cooling of market sentiment and a decline in raw material prices. The fundamentals of raw material butadiene have not changed significantly, and the supply is expected to remain tight in the short term. - **Outlook**: It will maintain a range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to changes in equipment operation [10]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **View**: The monthly price difference is decreasing. Pay attention to the change in the outflow speed of warehouse receipts. - **Logic**: The supply of cotton is expected to be abundant in the 25/26 season. The current demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is decreasing but still at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. The 09 contract's upward momentum has weakened, and the 1 - month contract may rise in the short term but will be under pressure in the medium term. - **Outlook**: Oscillating, with a reverse spread in the monthly price difference [11]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **View**: The sugar price has declined. Pay attention to the supply pressure. - **Logic**: The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season. Brazil's sugar production ratio is expected to remain high, and India's sugar production is expected to increase. The domestic sales progress is fast, but the import volume has increased. - **Outlook**: Oscillating with a long - term downward trend. In the short term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [12]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **View**: The Politburo meeting provided insufficient bullish factors, and the pulp price may continue to decline in the short term. - **Logic**: The futures price of pulp fell yesterday due to a weakening of the commodity trading atmosphere. The current supply of pulp is excessive, and the demand is expected to improve marginally in the second half of the year. The industry has a ceiling expectation for price increases. - **Outlook**: In the near term, the fluctuation will mainly follow the macro - environment, and the pulp futures price is expected to oscillate upwards [13]. 3.1.10 Logs - **View**: The macro - sentiment has cooled down, and the market has followed the decline. - **Logic**: After the Politburo meeting, the macro - sentiment cooled down, and the log market oscillated weakly. The supply and demand of the log market are both weak. The supply from New Zealand has slowed down, and the demand lacks obvious growth points. - **Outlook**: Oscillating with a slight downward trend in the short term. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the quantity of effective delivery products of the 09 contract and fluctuations caused by the change of peak and off - peak seasons [15]. 3.2 Operation Suggestions - **Pulp**: In the short term, remain on the sidelines. For arbitrage, conduct a 11 - 1 reverse spread and a spot - futures positive spread [13]. - **Protein Meal**: Hold long positions at 2900 and add positions on dips. Buy options to bet on increased volatility [4]. - **Hogs**: Pay attention to the reverse spread strategy [5]. - **Logs**: For speculators, remain on the sidelines. For industrial players, participate in hedging according to their own costs [16].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic commodities futures mostly closed higher, with the crude oil sector generally rising [1]. - Overseas commodity demand is experiencing a short - term weak recovery, housing prices are weakly stable, and job vacancies are lower than expected. Attention should be paid to the latest non - farm data and earnings reports. The US tariff policies may be implemented, with uncertainties remaining [7]. - The tone of the domestic policy meeting is in line with expectations, focusing on improving the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. Policies will be more flexible and forward - looking. There are administrative production - cut expectations in some industries, and domestic demand is stable with resilient exports [7]. - Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities. Pay attention to the progress of China - US tariff negotiations and policy signals from the Politburo meeting. Overseas, be aware of tariff frictions, Fed policies, and geopolitical risks. A weak US dollar pattern persists in the long - term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: US May FHFA housing price index monthly rate was - 0.2%. US consumers' willingness to buy real estate, cars, and household durables is fluctuating at a low level. US June JOLTs job vacancies were 7.437 million, lower than expected. US tariff policies may be implemented before August 1st and 12th [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: The Politburo meeting's policy tone is in line with expectations, emphasizing using existing policies effectively. There are administrative production - cut expectations in some industries. Domestic demand is stable, and exports are resilient [7]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets have structural opportunities. Overseas, pay attention to multiple risks. Maintain strategic allocations to resources like gold and copper [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner due to the strengthening of the technology - growth sector. Index options may experience volatile movements. Treasury bond futures will be affected by the Politburo meeting and China - US economic and trade talks [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment phase, affected by Trump's tariff policies and Fed's monetary policies [8]. - **Shipping**: The sentiment of the shipping industry has declined. The focus is on the sustainability of the increase in the June loading rate of container shipping to Europe [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: The trend of black building materials has reversed. Most varieties are expected to move in a volatile manner, affected by factors such as production, cost, and policy [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Non - ferrous metals are expected to receive support from the upcoming stable - growth plan. Most non - ferrous metal prices are expected to move in a volatile manner, affected by supply, demand, and policy factors [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil supply is increasing. Most chemical products are expected to move in a volatile manner, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost. Some products like asphalt and high/low - sulfur fuel oil are expected to decline [10]. - **Agriculture**: Cotton prices have declined, and the month - spread has decreased. Most agricultural products are expected to move in a volatile manner, affected by factors such as weather, supply, and demand [10].

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: China and the US agreed to extend the suspension of reciprocal tariffs Futures Prices: On July 30, equity index futures fell while CGB futures rose; most commodities gained, with poly-silicon, coke and coal leading the gains. Commentary: Poly-Silicon, Silicon Metal, Lithium Carbonate 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report doesn't explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, based on the individual品种outlooks, most are rated as "震荡" (sideways), with some "震荡偏弱" (weakly sideways) and no "偏强" (strongly bullish) or "偏弱" (strongly bearish) ratings [266] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the domestic commodity market has warmed up again, with energy and chemical products generally showing a strong sideways trend, supported by the strength of raw materials such as crude oil and coking coal. The futures market has rebounded, but the spot market is relatively weak, especially for polyolefins. The report also highlights the impact of geopolitical factors on the oil market and the supply - demand dynamics of various chemical products [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Situation and Influencing Factors - The upcoming Politburo meeting has led to a warm - up in the domestic commodity market. The energy and chemical sector is influenced by both crude oil and coking coal, with futures rebounding but spot prices being weak, especially for polyolefins. The situation in Russia - Ukraine conflict and Trump's remarks on Russia continue to support oil prices, while OPEC+ is in a period of rapid production increase, and there is a balance between strong demand from refineries and supply pressure [1][2][5] 3.2 Outlook for Each Commodity - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical support continues, and the market should watch out for Russian oil risks. The high refinery operations in China and the US and geopolitical factors support prices, while supply pressure from OPEC+ exists. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [5] - **Asphalt**: With the rise in crude oil prices, it is a good time for short - sellers to enter the market. The spot market shows a pattern of strong in the north and weak in the south, and the futures market may shift the pricing from Shandong to East and South China. The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued, and the monthly spread is expected to decline [6] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the rebound of crude oil, but overall, supply is increasing while demand is decreasing. Geopolitical upgrades may only cause short - term price fluctuations, and it is expected to be weakly sideways [7] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Its futures price follows the rebound of crude oil. It faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. Although the current valuation is low, it is expected to follow the movement of crude oil [8] - **PX**: After the cooling of market sentiment, it returns to cost and fundamental pricing logic. The supply is stable, and the demand from downstream PTA is weakening, with production profits narrowing [9] - **PTA**: Major suppliers have reduced production, leading to a decrease in both supply and demand, and the processing fee has been repaired. The overall supply - demand situation in August is expected to improve, but the absolute price still mainly follows raw material fluctuations [9] - **Pure Benzene**: With the rebound of crude oil, its price has slightly increased. The third - quarter fundamentals have improved, but the rebound is restricted by inventory pressure [10][11] - **Styrene**: As market sentiment cools, its price has declined. The supply - demand situation is expected to weaken, and port inventories are accumulating. If the macro - sentiment continues to improve, there may be inventory replenishment in the industry chain [12] - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: Market sentiment has cooled, and typhoon weather has led to a reduction in port inventories. The supply - demand situation in August - September is expected to turn to a wide - balance state, and there is a possibility of inventory accumulation after the typhoon [13] - **Direct - Spun Polyester Staple Fiber**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the upstream polymerization cost has declined. The production and sales rate has increased, and some factories have carried out maintenance. The processing fee is expected to remain stable, and the absolute price will follow raw material fluctuations [14] - **Polyester Bottle Chips**: The support from upstream polyester raw materials has weakened, and the "anti - involution" sentiment has subsided. The market price is expected to follow raw material fluctuations, and the processing fee has support at the bottom [15][16] - **Methanol**: The supply pressure in the inland area is not significant, and it is expected to fluctuate. The domestic main production areas are in a state of weak supply and demand, and the port inventory has decreased. The profit of methanol production is still relatively high, and the upside space is restricted by the negative feedback from olefins [17] - **Urea**: The supply is strong while the demand is weak. The market sentiment has received short - term support, and exports support the market. The futures price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to its return to fundamentals [18] - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: The support from maintenance is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate. The commodity sentiment has fluctuated, and the supply side still has pressure, while the demand side is in the off - season [21] - **PP**: The commodity sentiment is volatile in the short - term, and it is expected to fluctuate. The macro - support has weakened, and the supply side is expected to increase, while the demand side is weak [22] - **Propylene (PL)**: It mainly follows the fluctuations, and it may fluctuate in the short - term. The spot supply of propylene is abundant, and the downstream follows the demand. The short - term macro - end may still fluctuate after the decline [23] - **PVC**: The policy expectation is positive, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate. The macro - sentiment is warm, but the fundamentals are under pressure. The production is expected to increase, and the cost may rise [24] - **Caustic Soda**: Supported by the low inventory in Shandong, it is expected to run sideways. The policy expectation is positive, and the demand from alumina is increasing, while the export price has rebounded slightly [24] 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring - **Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring**: The report provides cross - period spreads, basis, and cross - variety spreads for various commodities, showing the price relationships and changes among different contracts and commodities [25][26][27] - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring**: Although the report lists different commodities such as methanol, urea, etc., specific data summaries are not provided in the given text, only the commodity names are mentioned [28][40][51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - IMF's upward revision of the global economic growth forecast provides temporary support for the non - ferrous metals sector. However, the uncertainty of US tariffs and the expectation of weakening demand still suppress prices, while policy stimulus expectations and supply disruptions support prices. Attention should be paid to structural opportunities, such as short - term long positions in aluminum and tin at low prices and short positions in zinc ingots at high prices. For the long - term, short - selling opportunities at high prices can be considered for some varieties with supply surpluses or expected surpluses [1]. - Different non - ferrous metal varieties have different market trends. Copper is expected to fluctuate due to the approaching expiration date of reciprocal tariffs; alumina will continue to fluctuate widely; aluminum prices will fluctuate narrowly with a continuous inventory accumulation trend; aluminum alloy will fluctuate in a weak off - season atmosphere; zinc prices will fluctuate weakly; lead prices will fluctuate with stable cost support; nickel prices will fluctuate widely; stainless steel will fluctuate; and tin prices will fluctuate with inventory accumulation [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **Viewpoint**: As the expiration date of reciprocal tariffs approaches, copper prices will fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: The Chilean Finance Minister hopes that the 50% tariff on copper can be exempted. Trump plans to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper, and the new tariff may be implemented at the end of July or August 1st. In June, China's electrolytic copper production decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year. As of July 28th, copper inventory increased. On July 29th, the spot price of 1 electrolytic copper had an average premium of 110 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract [8]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, investors are becoming more cautious as the tariff expiration date approaches, weakening the upward momentum of copper prices. The supply of raw materials is still tight, increasing the risk of smelter production cuts. The copper rod operating rate has declined, and inventory has increased. - **Outlook**: Copper supply constraints remain, and inventory is still low, but demand is weakening marginally. The implementation of US copper tariffs is not conducive to Shanghai copper prices, so copper is expected to show a fluctuating pattern [9]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **Viewpoint**: With a large - scale cancellation of warehouse receipts, alumina will continue to fluctuate widely. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, the spot price of alumina increased in various regions. The supply of Guinea's bauxite may tighten during the rainy season, but the overall market surplus pattern will suppress prices. On July 29th, the alumina warehouse receipts decreased by 4823 tons to 4208 tons [9][10]. - **Main Logic**: In the short term, the alumina market is dominated by anti - involution sentiment and low warehouse receipts. Fundamentally, smelter production capacity is increasing, and the market is in a surplus state with rising inventory. However, the large - scale cancellation of warehouse receipts and the low level of warehouse receipt inventory may support prices. - **Outlook**: In the short term, alumina is expected to maintain high - volatility and wide - range fluctuations. Attention should be paid to anti - involution sentiment and warehouse receipt issues [10][11]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: With the continuous inventory accumulation trend, aluminum prices will fluctuate narrowly. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased by 40 yuan/ton. As of July 28th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods in the main consumption areas in China changed. On July 29th, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts decreased by 524 tons. Relevant policies for the stable growth of key industries are expected to be introduced. Hydro's Q2 production data shows a slight increase in aluminum production. The US has reached trade agreements with the EU, the Philippines, and other countries [11][12]. - **Main Logic**: In the short term, the approaching tariff deadline, a slight rebound in the US dollar, and the cooling of anti - involution policy expectations. The supply - side production capacity and operating rate are at a high level, while the demand - side off - season atmosphere is emerging, and the operating rate of primary processing is declining. Inventory is accumulating, and the spot basis is flat. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the consumption situation and inventory accumulation rhythm need to be observed, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. In the long term, there are concerns about consumption, and a short - selling strategy at high prices can be considered based on the premium and inventory inflection point [12]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: In a strong off - season atmosphere, the market will fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, the price of Baotai ADC12 remained unchanged. In June 2025, China's scrap aluminum imports decreased year - on - year. Thailand plans to implement carbon tax policies. An aluminum alloy project in Anhui started construction with a total investment of about 2 billion yuan [13]. - **Main Logic**: In the short term, ADC12 is in a game between strong cost support and weak demand. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, but the previous imports have increased, and the anti - involution sentiment has cooled, resulting in a marginal decline in scrap aluminum prices. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy is low, and inventory is accumulating. The demand is in the off - season, and downstream enterprises purchase on a just - in - time basis. - **Outlook**: In the short term, ADC12 and the ADC12 - A00 spread will fluctuate at a low level, and the market will follow electrolytic aluminum. In the future, there is room for the spread to rise, and cross - variety arbitrage can be considered [13][15]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **Viewpoint**: With the cooling of anti - involution sentiment, zinc prices will fluctuate weakly. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, the spot price of zinc in different regions had different discounts to the main contract. As of July 29th, the inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions increased. The Xinjiang Huoshaoyun lead - zinc smelting project was put into production, with an annual zinc production capacity of 560,000 tons [15]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the anti - involution sentiment has cooled, but there are still expectations of domestic policy stimulus. The US dollar index has support, but its rebound is limited. The supply of zinc ore has become looser, and smelters' profitability is good, with strong production willingness. The demand is in the traditional off - season, and the overall demand expectation is average. - **Outlook**: In July, zinc ingot production will increase, and demand will weaken, leading to inventory accumulation. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [16]. 3.1.6 Lead - **Viewpoint**: With stable cost support, lead prices will fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged, and the price difference between primary and recycled lead was stable. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots remained unchanged, and the spot premium increased by 25 yuan. As of July 28th, lead ingot inventory increased slightly. The supply of primary lead is still tight, while the production of recycled lead has recovered [16][17]. - **Main Logic**: In the spot market, the spot discount has narrowed slightly, and the price difference between primary and recycled lead is stable. The price of waste batteries is stable, and the operating rate of recycled lead smelters has increased. The production capacity of primary lead smelters has not fully recovered, and the weekly production of lead ingots has increased slightly. The demand is in the transition period from the off - season to the peak season, and the operating rate of lead - acid battery factories has increased [17][18]. - **Outlook**: Although the US reciprocal tariff suspension period has been postponed to August 1st, the announced tariff is high, causing macro - level fluctuations. As demand transitions from the off - season to the peak season, the battery factory operating rate has recovered. The supply of lead ingots may continue to increase slightly this week. The cost of recycled lead is supported at a high level, so lead prices are expected to fluctuate [18]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **Viewpoint**: With fluctuating market sentiment, nickel prices will fluctuate widely. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, LME nickel inventory increased, and Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts decreased. Indonesia plans to invest in the nickel downstream industry, and some companies have adjusted their production forecasts. Vale Indonesia plans to raise funds for nickel projects. The Indonesian Nickel Mining Association proposes to revise the HPM formula, and the Indonesian government will implement a new RKAB system. The export volume of the Philippines to Indonesia is expected to increase [18][19][20]. - **Main Logic**: Currently, market sentiment dominates the market, and the static valuation of the market is stable. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. After the rainy season, the supply of raw materials may be looser. The production of intermediate products has recovered, and the price of nickel salts has declined slightly. The inventory of electrolytic nickel is accumulating, and the upward pressure is significant. - **Outlook**: In the short term, nickel prices will fluctuate widely, and in the long term, they will face downward pressure [22]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: With the cooling of sentiment, the stainless - steel market will fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt inventory remained unchanged. SMM expects the HPM of Indonesian domestic trade ore to rise slightly in the first half of August. The spot price of 304 stainless steel in Foshan had a discount to the main contract. The average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged [23][25]. - **Main Logic**: The price of nickel iron has stopped falling and rebounded, and the price of chrome iron is stable. Due to the traditional consumption off - season, the improvement in spot trading volume is limited. In June, stainless - steel production decreased month - on - month but remained at a high level, and there is a risk of weakening apparent demand. Last week, social inventory and warehouse receipts decreased, alleviating the structural surplus pressure. - **Outlook**: The overall sentiment in the commodity sector has cooled. Attention should be paid to the possibility of increased production cuts by steel mills due to long - term profit compression and policy expectations. In the short term, stainless - steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to inventory changes and cost - side changes [24]. 3.1.9 Tin - **Viewpoint**: With inventory accumulation in both markets, tin prices will fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, LME tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 35 tons to 1855 tons, and Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 160 tons to 7529 tons. The trading volume decreased by 2289 lots to 52135 lots. The average spot price of 1 tin ingots decreased by 2700 yuan/ton to 266100 yuan/ton [24]. - **Main Logic**: After the mining license is issued, tin ore production is expected to gradually increase, but the tight supply situation in China will not change in the short term. The supply - demand fundamentals provide strong support for tin prices. However, the terminal demand for tin has weakened marginally in the second half of the year, limiting the upward momentum of tin prices. - **Outlook**: With the tight supply of tin ore, tin prices have bottom support and are expected to fluctuate. In August, the volatility of tin prices may increase due to possible changes in macro, capital, and supply - demand factors [26]. 3.2行情监测 The report does not provide specific content for this part.

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-7-30 棉价回落，月差下行 油脂：市场情绪企稳，油脂或震荡偏强 蛋⽩粕：优良率高于预期，美豆1000美分附近运行 ⽟⽶/淀粉：现货整体稳定，等待新的指引 ⽣猪：库存仍在，期现承压 橡㬵：等待宏观指引，胶价横盘震荡 合成橡㬵：盘面继续跟随变动 纸浆：反内卷交易仍可能重来，回落过程关注套利对冲 棉花：棉价回落，月差下行 ⽩糖：糖价震荡，进口压力压制上方空间 原⽊：基本面变化有限，短期受宏观预期主导 【异动品种】 棉花观点：棉价回落，⽉差下⾏ 逻辑：产量方面，25/26年度，国内外棉市预计供应依旧宽松，中国预计 增产，目前天气端无明显异动。需求方面，当前处于下游需求淡季，企业 开机率延续下滑，成品小幅累库，花纱利润不佳，关注需求端的负反馈传 导。库存方面，棉花去库速度虽然因为进入淡季而环比放缓，但较往年 同期来看依旧较快，导致棉花商业库存处于同期低位，滑准税配额增发 消息未落地，新花上市前供应偏紧的格局难改。总体来看，上周起， 主力合约减仓下行，随着做多资金获利了结平仓，尽管短期供需偏紧格 局未改，但主力合约继续炒作动力减弱，月 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: There is a short - term weak recovery in overseas commodity demand, remaining relatively stable overall. The improvement of consumer purchasing意愿 in the US depends on wealth effects and income expectations. Attention should be paid to the latest non - farm data and tariff policies. The low - dollar pattern continues in the long - term, and non - dollar assets should be monitored [8]. - Domestic macro: As the "anti - involution" policy expectations strengthen, although it is the off - season, domestic demand has not significantly declined, and exports remain resilient. Current growth - stabilizing policies mainly use existing resources, with a higher probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter [8]. - Asset view: There are mainly structural opportunities in domestic assets. Pay attention to Sino - US tariff negotiations and policy signals from the Politburo meeting. Overseas, focus on tariff frictions, Fed policies, and geopolitical risks. Strategically allocate resources such as gold and copper [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: Short - term weak recovery in overseas commodity demand, with US consumer purchasing意愿 for real estate, cars, and household durables fluctuating at a low level. Price suppression persists, and improvement depends on wealth effects and income expectations. Monitor the latest non - farm data and tariff policies. The low - dollar pattern continues in the long - term [8]. - **Domestic Macro**: "Anti - involution" policy expectations are strengthening. Despite the off - season, domestic demand has not declined significantly, and exports are resilient. Current growth - stabilizing policies mainly use existing resources, with a higher probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter [8]. - **Asset View**: Focus on structural opportunities in domestic assets, and pay attention to Sino - US tariff negotiations and Politburo meeting signals. Overseas, be aware of tariff frictions, Fed policies, and geopolitical risks. Strategically allocate resources such as gold and copper [8]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The main line of "anti - involution" has switched. With insufficient incremental funds, it is expected to rise in a volatile manner [9]. - **Stock Index Options**: Volatility has reached an inflection point. It is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Bond market sentiment has improved. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to factors such as unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [9]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Precious metals continue to adjust. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to Trump's tariff policy and Fed's monetary policy [9]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Focus on the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to tariff policies and shipping company pricing strategies [9]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the price has fallen from a high level. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to special bond issuance progress, steel exports, and hot - metal production [9]. - **Iron Ore**: Port inventory has decreased slightly. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to overseas mine production and shipping, domestic hot - metal production, weather, and policy [9]. - **Coke**: Spot prices have started the fourth round of increases, and the futures price has followed coking coal's limit - down. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [9]. - **Coking Coal**: Policy - stimulated sentiment has reversed, and the futures price has limit - down. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [9]. - **Silicon Iron**: Bullish sentiment has cooled, and the futures price has opened lower and fluctuated. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to raw material costs and steel procurement [9]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the futures price has opened lower and fluctuated. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to cost prices and overseas quotes [9]. - **Glass**: Speculative sentiment has declined, and intermediate - level inventory has increased significantly. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to spot sales [9]. - **Soda Ash**: Market sentiment has weakened, and both futures and spot prices have declined rapidly. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to soda ash inventory [9]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: A non - ferrous growth - stabilizing plan is about to be introduced, supporting the copper price. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to supply disruptions, policy surprises, and demand recovery [9]. - **Alumina**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the price has adjusted from a high level. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to ore production recovery and electrolytic aluminum production [9]. - **Aluminum**: The boost in sentiment has slowed, and the aluminum price has declined. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [9]. - **Zinc**: Macro sentiment remains, and the zinc price is oscillating at a high level. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to macro risks and zinc ore supply [9]. - **Lead**: Supply and demand are relatively loose, and the lead price is oscillating. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to supply disruptions and battery exports [9]. - **Nickel**: "Anti - involution" trading has slowed, and the nickel price is fluctuating widely. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to macro, geopolitical, and Indonesian policy risks [9]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel iron has slightly rebounded, and the stainless - steel futures price is oscillating. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to Indonesian policies and demand growth [9]. - **Tin**: LME inventory continues to decline, and the tin price is oscillating strongly. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to production recovery in Wa State and demand improvement [9]. - **Industrial Silicon**: "Anti - involution" sentiment persists, and the silicon price has rebounded. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to supply - side production cuts and photovoltaic installations [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the lithium price has回调 after rising. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to demand, supply disruptions, and technological breakthroughs [9]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical support continues, and attention is on Russian oil risks. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations [11]. - **LPG**: Supply pressure persists, and cost factors dominate. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to cost progress such as crude oil and overseas propane [11]. - **Asphalt**: Spot prices are falling, and the futures price is under downward pressure. It is expected to decline, with attention to unexpected demand [11]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It has weakened during the power - generation peak season. It is expected to decline, with attention to crude oil and natural - gas prices [11]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price follows crude oil and weakens. It is expected to decline, with attention to crude oil and natural - gas prices [11]. - **Methanol**: Commodity sentiment has faded, and the price has declined with coal. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [11]. - **Urea**: It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with attention to export policies and capacity elimination [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is supported by the macro - environment, but there is a risk of over - trading. It is expected to decline with fluctuations, with attention to coal prices and inventory accumulation [11]. - **PX**: Sentiment fluctuations are intensifying, and fundamental drivers are weakening. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to overseas device restarts and downstream PTA device maintenance [11]. - **PTA**: Large - scale plant maintenance is approaching, and inventory accumulation may slow down. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to unexpected plant maintenance and downstream polyester production cuts [11]. - **Short - Fiber**: It has difficulty following the upstream price increase, and processing fees are compressed. Supply - demand drivers are weak. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to textile exports and downstream purchasing [11]. - **Bottle Chip**: During the production - cut season, cost pricing dominates over supply - demand drivers. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to future production starts [11]. - **Propylene**: Short - term contradictions are limited, and it may follow polypropylene to fluctuate. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to oil prices and the domestic macro - environment [11]. - **PP**: "Anti - involution" sentiment has changed, and the price has declined with fluctuations. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to oil prices and domestic and international macro - environments [11]. - **Plastic**: Macro support has weakened, and the price has declined with fluctuations. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to oil prices and domestic and international macro - environments [11]. - **Styrene**: Commodity sentiment has improved, and attention is on policy details. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to oil prices, macro policies, and device dynamics [11]. - **PVC**: "Anti - involution" sentiment has cooled, and the price is mainly oscillating. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to expectations, costs, and supply [11]. - **Caustic Soda**: Low inventory in Shandong supports the price, and the downward space is limited. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to market sentiment, production starts, and demand [11]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: Market sentiment has stabilized, and prices may strengthen with fluctuations. It is expected to rise with fluctuations, with attention to US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production - demand data [11]. - **Protein Meal**: The excellent - grade rate is higher than expected, and US soybeans are trading around 1000 cents. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to US soybean weather, domestic demand, and trade wars [11]. - **Corn/Starch**: Spot prices are generally stable, waiting for new guidance. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to demand, macro - environment, and weather [11]. - **Pigs**: Inventory remains high, and both futures and spot prices are under pressure. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to farming sentiment, epidemics, and policies [11]. - **Rubber**: The commodity market has adjusted sharply, and the rubber price has dropped significantly. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The futures price follows the market. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to significant crude - oil price fluctuations [11]. - **Pulp**: "Anti - involution" trading may resume. Pay attention to arbitrage during the price decline. It is expected to rise with fluctuations, with attention to macro - economic changes and US - dollar - based quotes [11]. - **Cotton**: The price difference between months is converging. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to demand and production [11]. - **Sugar**: Imports are expected to increase, limiting the sugar - price rebound. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to abnormal weather [11]. - **Logs**: Fundamental changes are limited, and short - term prices are dominated by macro - expectations. It is expected to decline with fluctuations, with attention to shipment and delivery volumes [11].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-7-30 美债收益率显著回落提振市场，静待议 息会议指引 议息会议前⼣市场交投相对清淡，美元指数短线强势反弹，但贵⾦属对此 反应甚微，隔夜美国公布的职位空缺数低于预期，美债收益率显著⾛低， 对市场形成提振。后续来看，经贸不确定性短期下降，关税逐渐成为慢变 量，关注美国基本⾯及降息预期变化，本周美国⾮农数据及7⽉降息会议 上美联储的表达较为重要。 重点资讯： 1）美国6月JOLTs职位空缺743.7万人，预期750万人，前值由776.9万 人修正为771.2万人。 2）美国总统特朗普发布信函称将自8月1日起对巴西产品征收50%的关 税。对于大量进口巴西咖啡豆的美国咖啡行业来说，这一关税政策给 他们造成严重冲击。 3）IMF将全球经济情况描述为"在持续的不确定性中，保持脆弱的韧 性"。IMF预计2025年全球经济增长率为3.0%，2026年为3. 1%。此外，IMF预计全球整体通胀率将在2025年降至4.2%，在2026年 降至3.6%。IMF将中国2025年的增长率较4月WEO预期上调了0.8个百分 点，达到4.8%。IMF ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock index futures is "oscillating with a slight upward bias" [7] - The investment rating for stock index options is "oscillating" [8] - The investment rating for treasury bond futures is "oscillating, taking a cautious approach" [10] 2. Core Views of the Report - Stock index futures are experiencing a strengthening of the technology - growth trend. The market sentiment is positive, and funds are flowing towards high - growth sectors. There is still room for price increases in the technology - growth sector, and it is recommended to continue to allocate long positions in IM contracts [7]. - For stock index options, there are two trading logics based on the volatility changes: partial profit - taking in the spot and switching to buying out - of - the - money call options, or buying put options for protection during the process of chasing the market. In the short - term, a double - selling strategy is recommended, and in the medium - term, the covered call strategy continues [2][8]. - Treasury bond futures are facing multiple disturbing factors. The market is pricing in potential risks from major meetings in advance. In the short - term, the bond market is affected by many factors, and it is recommended to pay attention to various strategies such as basis trading and curve trading [2][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index opened lower and closed higher, with trading volume reaching 1.83 trillion yuan. The market sentiment is positive, and the focus is shifting to the technology - growth sector. The pharmaceutical and communication industries led the gains [7]. - **Logic**: The strong performance of the CXO leader's mid - year report and the technological catalysis of PCB are driving the technology - growth sector. Funds are flowing out of the "anti - involution" and dumbbell - shaped sectors, and there is still room for price increases in the technology - growth sector [7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Allocate long positions in IM contracts [7]. Stock Index Options - **Market Performance**: The underlying assets continued to be strong, with the GEM ETF rising by 1.75% and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF rising by 1.35%. The trading volume of the STAR Market and ChiNext ETF options increased, but the overall market share is limited [8]. - **Logic**: The increase in weighted volatility mainly comes from the out - of - the - money put side, while the at - the - money and slightly out - of - the - money call volatility has declined, implying short - term market correction concerns. Two trading logics are derived [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: In the short - term, use the double - selling strategy; in the medium - term, continue the covered call strategy [2][8]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures declined across the board. The central bank continued large - scale net injections, but the bond market sentiment was weak [2][10]. - **Logic**: The market is pricing in potential risks from the Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and the Politburo meeting in advance. The stock market and commodity market sentiment has improved, putting pressure on the bond market [2][10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: For trend trading, be cautious; for hedging, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels; for basis trading, pay attention to the basis convergence of the TL main contract; for curve trading, it is more profitable to steepen the yield curve in the medium - term [10]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The economic calendar includes data such as the US July ADP employment figures, the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision, China's July official manufacturing PMI, and the US July Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final value [12]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - From January to June 2025, the number of newly established foreign - invested enterprises in China increased by 11.7% year - on - year, but the actual use of foreign capital decreased by 15.2% year - on - year. The manufacturing and service industries used 1090.6 billion yuan and 3058.7 billion yuan of foreign capital respectively [12]. - From January to June, the total operating income of state - owned enterprises decreased by 0.2% year - on - year, and the total profit decreased by 3.1% year - on - year. The asset - liability ratio at the end of June increased by 0.3 percentage points year - on - year [13]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association clarified that some self - media reports on the anti - involution work in the photovoltaic industry, especially in the polysilicon sector, are inconsistent with the facts [13]. - Due to heavy rainfall in Beijing, a national level - four disaster relief emergency response was launched. The National Development and Reform Commission arranged 200 million yuan of central budget - inner investment for post - disaster recovery [13]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions the monitoring data of stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, including contract basis, spreads, trading volume, and open interest, but specific data details are not fully presented in the summary [7][8][10].