投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-06-17 股市缺乏主线，债市曲线⾛陡 股指期货：地缘冲击淡化，等待陆家嘴论坛政策。 股指期权：波动快速触底，买权为主。 国债期货：债市曲线⾛陡。 股指期货方面，地缘冲击淡化，等待陆家嘴论坛政策。周一继续缺少 主线方向。地缘事件的影响相对淡化，伊朗主要领导层被定向击杀，妥协 只是时间问题，预期差有限，黄金、原油价格均高位回落。市场关注转向 本周的陆家嘴论坛，传涉及数字货币、科技与产业与金融良性循环等， 催化稳定币等主题概念活跃，资金提前布局，TMT板块领涨。然而经济弱 现实仍未改变，PPI同比负增扩大，国补外的社零增速平缓，关注陆家嘴 论坛是否有改善产业利润分配的实质性政策表态。另外，港股隐忧继续提 示资金拥挤风险，恒生AH溢价指数创五年来新低，部分公司出现H股溢 价，而近年AH溢价低位多对应于沪深300高位，存在港股连累A股的可能 性，操作偏向防御。 股指期权方面，波动快速触底，买权为主。昨日，波动率骤降，50ET F期权加权水平来到13.2%，而当月平值在12%左右，而中证1000股指期权 来到近250个交易日最小 ...

地缘局势主导能化波动，前景并不明朗 以色列和伊朗之间的公开敌对状态进入第四天，且没有任何缓和的迹 象；过去24小时内伊朗向以色列发射了多波无人机和导弹，而以色列袭击 了伊朗首都德黑兰。16日北京时间晚上8点，以色列表示该国空军已掌控 德黑兰上空。伊朗当前还没有原油供应减量发生，但是该国的一些化工装 置已经意外关停，包括EG和MA。即使伊以局势平息后，伊朗和美国之间是 否会重启谈判也需要密切关注。 板块逻辑： 能化产业链在地缘的影响下强势拉升。原油上涨抬升了化工品的成 本。原油的上涨也短暂推动了终端产业链的补库，因为原料价格的涨幅还 未蔓延到产业最下游，聚酯产销就在上周五出现了放量。产业链中高硫燃 料油也有潜在利好，伊朗的高硫产量占全球比例逾8%。单边的空头趋势可 能仍需等待，投资者以对冲思路为宜，影响了实际供应的品种偏向多配， 产量增速较高的偏向空配。 原油：地缘风险加剧，油价波动放大 LPG：成本端支撑增加，PG跟随原油反弹 沥青：原油冲高回落，沥青期价震荡 高硫燃油：高硫燃油冲高回落 低硫燃油：低硫燃油期价跟随原油走强 甲醇：伊以扰动，甲醇大幅走强 尿素：地缘扰动叠加内外需启动，盘面偏强运行 乙二醇：港口 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-6-17 宏观及EPA利好油脂，关注上涨持续性 油脂：宏观及EPA提案利好油脂，关注上涨持续性 蛋⽩粕：套保压力如期而至，蛋白粕期价面临调整 ⽟⽶/淀粉：现货涨势放缓，盘面偏弱 ⽣猪：需求淡季，猪价仍有制约 橡㬵：情绪支撑尚在，盘面偏强震荡 合成橡㬵：地缘冲突的情绪影响暂时仍存 纸浆：金融市场氛围偏软，纸浆顺势反弹 棉花：驱动较弱，反弹动力不足 ⽩糖：关注下方支撑 原⽊：交割临近，博弈驱强 【异动品种】 油脂观点：宏观及EPA提案利好油脂，关注上涨持续性 主要逻辑：因中东地缘局势紧张、原油价格明显上涨，及EPA生柴提案利好美豆 油需求预期，近日国内外油脂市场明显走强，其中美豆油和国内棕油涨幅较大。 从宏观环境看，近期以伊冲突局势升级，地缘政治局势紧张，原油价格明显上 涨，宏观情绪利好国内外油脂市场。从产业端看，近日EPA提案拟将美国2026年 和2027年生物燃料掺混义务分别提高至56.1亿加仑和58.6亿加仑，较2025年33. 5亿加仑的增幅达67%；且改革RFS的基础规则，建议将进口生物燃料和进口原料 生产的生物燃料的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Most of the black building materials are expected to oscillate, including steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, ferrosilicon, and ferromanganese [2][6][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16] 2. Core Viewpoints - The black series as a whole has rebounded, driven by the rebound of coking coal and coke. However, due to the approaching off - season in the domestic construction and manufacturing industries, demand is hard to increase. With the large increase in iron ore shipments and the lack of obvious improvement in the supply of coking coal and coke, the market is expected to oscillate in the future [1][2][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mines are expected to increase shipments seasonally before early July, but the year - on - year increase is limited. Steel mills' profitability and hot metal production have slightly decreased, but are expected to remain high in the short term. Last week, the arrival decreased, leading to a slight decline in inventory. With the seasonal increase in overseas shipments, there is an expectation of a small - scale phased increase in ore inventory, but the amplitude is expected to be limited. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the iron ore price is expected to oscillate [2][8] Carbon Element - The number of coal mines shut down due to inventory pressure and environmental inspections has increased, and coking coal production has declined, but the overall market supply is not tight. Coke production has declined from a high level, and there is an expectation of further decline. During the price cut cycle, coke enterprises' enthusiasm for raw material replenishment is poor, and the upstream inventory of coking coal remains at a high level in recent years. The supply contraction is limited, and the downstream demand in the off - season tends to decline. The coking coal price lacks a driving force for a trending increase in the short term [3] Alloys - **Silicon Manganese**: There was a rumor about a mine dam failure, but it was verified that production and transportation are normal. Manganese ore prices have stabilized, and traders are reluctant to sell at low prices. A factory in Inner Mongolia plans to put new production capacity into operation in the second half of the month, and silicon manganese production may continue to increase. With the off - season approaching, the supply - demand of silicon manganese tends to be loose, and the manganese ore price is expected to loosen. The futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term [3][15] - **Silicon Iron**: Affected by the improvement in the energy sector, the silicon iron futures price rose from a low level. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the downstream is about to enter the off - season, with a strong willingness to destock. The market sentiment is still cautious. The futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to steel procurement and production [16] Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: In the off - season, demand is declining, deep - processing demand is weakening, and the spot price is falling. There is a production line planned for cold repair, and 5 production lines are waiting to produce glass. The supply pressure remains. The market is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term [6][13] - **Soda Ash**: The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. After the resumption of maintenance, the short - term is expected to oscillate, and the price center will decline in the long term [6][13] Individual Commodity Analysis - **Steel**: The domestic policy is in a vacuum period, and the war between Iran and Israel has repaired the valuation of overseas commodities. The overall supply and demand of steel have weakened this week, but inventory is still being depleted. The steel price is expected to oscillate in the short term [8] - **Scrap Steel**: With the deepening of the off - season for building materials, the apparent demand for rebar has decreased. The supply of scrap steel is tight, but the market is pessimistic about off - season demand. The scrap steel price is expected to oscillate [9] - **Coke**: Terminal steel demand is in the off - season, and downstream procurement is cautious. The supply has decreased, but the upstream inventory is high, and the demand is expected to decline. The coke price is under downward pressure [10][11] - **Coking Coal**: The spot market is pessimistic, and the supply remains loose. The production decline is limited, and the downstream demand in the off - season is expected to fall. The coking coal price increase is restricted in the short term [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: The US economic fundamentals still have the momentum to recover, and the Fed is expected to "hold steady" in June. Although the economic fundamentals are still recovering, they are disturbed by geopolitical risks and uncertainties in economic and trade prospects. The rebound of May's CPI data falling short of expectations supports the Fed's rate cut, but the soaring oil prices may prompt the Fed to send hawkish signals next week [6]. - Domestic macro: The national economy is operating steadily with progress. Fixed - asset investment continues to expand, manufacturing investment grows rapidly, service industry growth accelerates, and the year - on - year decline in commodity housing sales prices in all tiers of cities continued to narrow in May [6]. - Asset views: Domestically, there are mainly structural opportunities for assets, and the policy - driven logic is strengthened. Overseas geopolitical risks may increase short - term market volatility, while in the long run, the weak US dollar pattern continues. Attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets and strategic allocation of resources such as gold [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas: The US economic fundamentals are on the path of recovery from the contraction in Q1. However, the recovery is limited by geopolitical and economic - trade uncertainties. The Fed is likely to maintain the current interest rate in June due to the balance between upper - limit constraints and lower - limit support [6]. - Domestic: In May, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month. The service production index increased by 6.2% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 6.4% year - on - year [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Macro - Domestic: Moderate reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts are expected, and short - term fiscal policies will be implemented as planned [8]. - Overseas: The inflation expectation structure is flattening, economic growth expectations are improving, and stagflation trading is cooling down [8]. 3.2.2 Finance - Stock index futures: Geopolitical impacts are fading, waiting for policies from the Lujiazui Forum. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Stock index options: Volatility has quickly bottomed out, mainly buying options. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Treasury bond futures: The yield curve is steepening. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: If the progress of China - US negotiations exceeds expectations, precious metals will continue to adjust in the short term. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. 3.2.4 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Focus on the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - Steel: Macro sentiment is recovering, and prices are fluctuating at a low level. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Iron ore: Shipments and arrivals have decreased, and port inventories have slightly decreased. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Coke: Demand support is weak, and cost - driven increases are difficult to sustain. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Coking coal: Market sentiment has improved, but supply remains loose. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Ferrosilicon: Cost expectations have improved, and the price has risen from a low level. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Silicomanganese: Manganese ore supply is disrupted again, and the price has risen from a low level. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Glass: Demand is declining in the off - season, and spot prices are being adjusted downwards. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Soda ash: Supply is at a high level, and upstream inventories are accumulating. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: The US dollar index is weak, and copper prices are at a high level. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Alumina: Spot prices are falling, and the futures price is under pressure. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Aluminum: There is still a risk of a short - squeeze in the short term, and aluminum prices are fluctuating at a high level. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Zinc: Inventories are slightly accumulating, and zinc prices are weakly fluctuating. Short - term outlook is a downward - trending volatility [8]. - Lead: Cost support is stable, and lead prices are fluctuating. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Nickel: LME nickel inventories have increased significantly, and nickel prices are weak in the short term. Short - term outlook is a downward - trending volatility [8]. - Stainless steel: Ferronickel prices continue to decline, and the futures price is weak. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Tin: There is no obvious driving force, and tin prices are fluctuating. Short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Industrial silicon: Supply is continuously increasing, and silicon prices are under pressure. Short - term outlook is a downward - trending volatility [8]. - Lithium carbonate: Supply and demand lack driving forces, and prices continue to fluctuate. Short - term outlook is a downward - trending volatility [8]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical risks are intensifying, and oil price fluctuations are increasing. Short - term outlook is volatile [11]. - LPG: Cost support is increasing, and LPG prices are rebounding following crude oil. Short - term outlook is volatile [11]. - Asphalt: Crude oil prices have risen and then fallen, and asphalt futures prices are fluctuating. Short - term outlook is downward [11]. - High - sulfur fuel oil: High - sulfur fuel oil prices have risen and then fallen. Short - term outlook is downward [11]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices are following crude oil. Short - term outlook is downward [11]. - Methanol: Affected by the Iran - Israel situation, methanol prices have risen significantly. Short - term outlook is an upward - trending volatility [11]. - Urea: Affected by geopolitical factors and the start of domestic and foreign demand, the futures price is strong. Short - term outlook is an upward - trending volatility [11]. - Ethylene glycol: Port inventories are decreasing, and Iranian plants are shut down. Short - term outlook is an upward - trending volatility [11]. - PX: Supply - demand support is weakening, and short - term price depends on crude oil. Short - term outlook is volatile [11]. - PTA: Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and it follows crude oil in the short term. Short - term outlook is volatile [11]. - Short - fiber: Production is maintained, and weekly inventories are decreasing. Short - term outlook is an upward - trending volatility [11]. - Bottle chips: Multiple plants are under maintenance, and processing fees have bottomed out. Short - term outlook is volatile [11]. - PP: Oil prices have risen significantly, and the Middle East situation is uncertain. Short - term outlook is to wait and see [11]. - Plastic: It follows oil prices in the short term. Short - term outlook is to wait and see [11]. - Styrene: Crude oil prices have fallen, and styrene prices are weakly consolidating. Short - term outlook is a downward - trending volatility [11]. - PVC: Dynamic costs are rising, and PVC prices are fluctuating. Short - term outlook is volatile [11]. - Caustic soda: It has low valuation and weak supply - demand. Short - term outlook is volatile [11]. 3.2.8 Agriculture - Oils and fats: Macro and EPA proposals are beneficial to oils and fats. Short - term outlook is an upward - trending volatility [11]. - Protein meal: Hedging pressure has arrived as expected, and the futures price is facing adjustment. Short - term outlook is volatile [11]. - Corn/Starch: The increase in spot prices has slowed down, and the futures price is weak. Short - term outlook is volatile [11]. - Pig: It is the off - season for demand, and pig prices are restricted. Short - term outlook is a downward - trending volatility [11]. - Rubber: Market sentiment provides support, and the futures price is strongly fluctuating. Short - term outlook is volatile [11]. - Synthetic rubber: The impact of geopolitical conflicts on sentiment still exists. Short - term outlook is volatile [11]. - Pulp: The financial market atmosphere is soft, and pulp prices are rebounding. Short - term outlook is a downward - trending volatility [11]. - Cotton: The driving force is weak, and the rebound momentum is insufficient. Short - term outlook is volatile [11]. - Sugar: Attention should be paid to the lower - level support. Short - term outlook is volatile [11]. - Logs: As the delivery approaches, the game intensifies. Short - term outlook is volatile [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas macro: The US economic fundamentals still have the momentum to recover, but the recovery is disturbed by geopolitical risks and uncertainties in economic and trade prospects. The Fed is expected to "hold steady" in June due to the rebound of May CPI data falling short of expectations and the potential hawkish signals from the soaring oil prices [6]. - Domestic macro: The domestic price level remains weakly stable, with the downstream performing better than the upstream. International input factors lead to price declines in related industries, and downstream production tends to digest existing inventories, increasing pressure on upstream production. The PPI - CPI gap shows downward pressure recently [6]. - Asset views: Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities due to the weakly stable pattern of domestic prices and the economy, with the policy - driven logic strengthening. Overseas geopolitical risks may increase short - term market volatility, while in the long term, the weak - dollar pattern continues. Attention should be paid to non - dollar assets and strategic allocation of resources such as gold [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - **Overseas Macro**: The US economic fundamentals continue to recover from the contraction in Q1, but are affected by geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties. The Fed is likely to "hold steady" in June as the May CPI rebound is below expectations, and the soaring oil prices may prompt the Fed to send hawkish signals [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: The domestic price level is weakly stable, with the downstream outperforming the upstream. International factors cause price drops in upstream industries, and downstream production focuses on inventory digestion, increasing upstream pressure. The PPI - CPI gap shows recent downward pressure [6]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets offer mainly structural opportunities, and the policy - driven logic is strengthened. Overseas geopolitical risks may increase short - term market volatility. In the long run, the weak - dollar pattern persists, and attention should be given to non - dollar assets and strategic allocation of gold [6]. 3.2 View Highlights **Macro**: - **Domestic**: Moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts are implemented, and the fiscal end implements established policies in the short term [7]. - **Overseas**: The inflation expectation structure flattens, the economic growth expectation improves, and the stagflation trading cools down [7]. **Financial**: - **Stock Index Futures**: Micro - cap risks are not yet released, and the market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the trading congestion of micro - cap stocks [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The market is stable, and cautious covered strategies are recommended. Focus on the liquidity of the options market [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The short - end may be relatively strong, and the market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to changes in the capital market and policy expectations [7]. **Precious Metals**: - **Gold/Silver**: The progress of China - US negotiations exceeds expectations, and precious metals continue to adjust in the short term. Monitor Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy [7]. **Shipping**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Pay attention to the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases. The market is expected to fluctuate. Focus on tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies [7]. **Black Building Materials**: - **Steel**: The static fundamentals are good, but the demand expectation is weak. The market is expected to fluctuate. Monitor the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and hot metal production [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills' hot metal production slightly decreases, and port inventories increase slightly. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to overseas mine production and shipping, domestic hot metal production, weather, port inventory changes, and policy dynamics [7]. - **Coke**: Demand support weakens, and the futures price is under pressure. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Focus on steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Upstream inventories continue to accumulate, and mine shutdowns increase. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Monitor steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand expectation is poor, and the futures price fluctuates at the bottom. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to raw material costs and steel procurement [7]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The Hebei Steel tender is announced, and market sentiment is poor. The market is expected to fluctuate. Focus on cost prices and overseas quotes [7]. - **Glass**: Spot sales and production weaken, and inventories decrease slightly. The market is expected to fluctuate. Monitor spot sales and production [7]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply gradually recovers, and upstream inventories accumulate. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to soda ash inventories [7]. **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: - **Copper**: The US dollar index is weak, and copper prices are operating at a high level. The market is expected to fluctuate. Monitor supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, the Fed's less - dovish - than - expected stance, and the less - than - expected recovery of domestic demand [7]. - **Alumina**: The spot price drops, and the alumina futures price is under pressure. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Pay attention to the less - than - expected resumption of ore production, the more - than - expected resumption of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme sector trends [7]. - **Aluminum**: Affected by Trump's steel and aluminum tariff increase and other factors, the aluminum price fluctuates at a high level. The market is expected to fluctuate. Monitor macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [7]. - **Zinc**: After the price drop, downstream procurement is active. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Pay attention to macro - turning risks and the more - than - expected recovery of zinc ore supply [7]. - **Lead**: Cost support is temporarily stable, and the lead price fluctuates. The market is expected to fluctuate. Monitor supply - side disruptions and the slowdown of battery exports [7]. - **Nickel**: The Philippines removes the ban on raw ore exports, and the nickel price is weak in the short term. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Pay attention to macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and less - than - expected supply release [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: The nickel - iron price continues to decline, and the futures price fluctuates. The market is expected to fluctuate. Monitor Indonesian policy risks and more - than - expected demand growth [7]. - **Tin**: The supply - demand fundamentals are resilient, and the tin price fluctuates. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to the resumption expectation of Wa State and the change in demand improvement expectation [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The oversupply situation remains unchanged, and the silicon price is under pressure. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Monitor more - than - expected supply cuts and more - than - expected photovoltaic installations [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Market sentiment deteriorates, and the price is under pressure. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Pay attention to less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [8]. **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks intensify, and oil price fluctuations increase. The market is expected to fluctuate. Monitor OPEC+ production policies, the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and US sanctions on Iran [9]. - **LPG**: Cost - side support increases, and LPG follows the crude oil rebound. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to developments in crude oil and overseas propane costs [9]. - **Asphalt**: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalate, and the asphalt futures price strengthens. The market is expected to fluctuate. Monitor more - than - expected demand [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East lead to a resurgence of the geopolitical premium of fuel oil. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to crude oil and natural gas prices [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price follows the crude oil price increase. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to crude oil and natural gas prices [9]. - **Methanol**: The Iran - Israel conflict causes a significant increase in methanol prices. The market is expected to fluctuate. Monitor macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [9]. - **Urea**: The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern remains unchanged, and the futures price is weak. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Pay attention to market transactions, policy trends, and demand realization [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Terminal demand is less than expected, and inventory reduction through maintenance is reflected in the monthly spread. The market is expected to rise with fluctuations. Monitor the terminal demand for ethylene glycol [9]. - **PX**: Supply restarts quickly. Monitor PTA production and polyester start - up. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to crude oil fluctuations and downstream device changes [9]. - **PTA**: Supply increases and demand decreases, and the PTA pattern weakens marginally. The market is expected to fluctuate. Monitor polyester production [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: Short - fiber industry production cuts lead to a slight repair of processing fees. The market is expected to rise with fluctuations. Pay attention to terminal textile and clothing exports [9]. - **Bottle Chips**: High - level production leads to oversupply, and low processing fees will continue. The market is expected to fluctuate. Monitor the later start - up of bottle chips [9]. - **PP**: The oil price rises significantly, but the fundamentals are still under pressure, and PP rebounds. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to the oil price and domestic and international macro situations [9]. - **Plastic**: In the short term, it follows the oil price fluctuations and rebounds. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to the oil price and domestic and international macro situations [9]. - **Styrene**: Macro expectations rise again, and styrene rebounds. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Pay attention to the oil price, macro policies, and device dynamics [9]. - **PVC**: Geopolitical conflicts boost market sentiment, and PVC is recommended to be shorted at high prices. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to expectations, costs, and supply [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: The cost center weakens, and caustic soda runs weakly. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to market sentiment, start - up, and demand [9]. - **Oils and Fats**: The production increase pressure of Malaysian palm oil may weaken marginally, and the weather in the US soybean - producing areas is normal. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to South American soybean harvest, US soybean planting, and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [9]. - **Protein Meal**: The basis of soybean meal from October to January increases in volume, and the hedging pressure on the futures market increases. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to the US soybean planting area and weather, domestic demand, macro situation, and China - US and China - Canada trade wars [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: The spot price increase slows down, and the futures price is weak. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to less - than - expected demand, macro situation, and weather [9]. **Agriculture**: - **Hogs**: The average weight is high, and the spot and near - month prices are still under pressure. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Pay attention to farming sentiment, epidemics, and policies [9]. - **Rubber**: The rebound ends, and the price drops rapidly in the afternoon. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to the weather in production areas, raw material prices, and macro changes [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It first falls and then rises, and is treated as weak. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to significant crude oil price fluctuations [9]. - **Paper Pulp**: The futures price drops, and there is a greater possibility of breaking through the lower platform. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to macro - economic changes and US dollar - based price quotations [9]. - **Cotton**: The rebound height of the cotton price is limited. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to demand and production [9]. - **Sugar**: The new - season sugar market is expected to be loose, and domestic and international sugar prices continue to decline. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to abnormal weather [9]. - **Logs**: The spot price weakens, and the futures price is weak. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to shipment volume and shipping volume [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: The adverse impact of Trump's tariff policies on US imports and factory orders in April has emerged, and the May ISM manufacturing and services PMIs were below expectations. Despite recent weak economic data, the better - than - expected May non - farm payrolls and wage growth reduced market expectations of a Fed rate cut. It is expected that the Fed will keep the benchmark overnight rate in the 4.25% - 4.50% range in June [6]. - Domestic macro: Current policies remain stable, and in the short term, existing policies will be fully utilized. Domestic manufacturing enterprise profits are expected to maintain resilience, but export and price data may face pressure. Attention should be paid to "rush re - export" and "rush export" progress and the July Politburo meeting [6]. - Asset views: For major asset classes, maintain the view of more hedging and volatility overseas and a structured market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Gold is expected to gradually narrow its short - term adjustment range and rise in the medium - to - long - term. Bonds are still worth allocating after the capital pressure eases. Stocks and commodities will return to fundamental logic, showing short - term range - bound fluctuations [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - Overseas: The adverse impact of Trump's tariff policies on US imports and factory orders in April has emerged. The May ISM manufacturing and services PMIs were below expectations, reflecting the continuous impact of tariff policies on demand and inflation. Although economic data was weak, the May non - farm payrolls and wage growth were better than expected, reducing market expectations of a Fed rate cut. It is expected that the Fed will keep the benchmark overnight rate unchanged in June [6]. - Domestic: Policies remain stable, and in the short term, existing policies will be fully utilized. Manufacturing enterprise profits are expected to maintain resilience, but export and price data may face pressure. Attention should be paid to "rush re - export" and "rush export" progress and the July Politburo meeting [6]. - Asset views: Maintain the view of more hedging and volatility overseas and a structured market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Gold is expected to gradually narrow its short - term adjustment range and rise in the medium - to - long - term. Bonds are still worth allocating after the capital pressure eases. Stocks and commodities will return to fundamental logic, showing short - term range - bound fluctuations [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Macro - Domestic: Moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the implementation of established fiscal policies in the short term [7]. - Overseas: The inflation expectation structure has flattened, economic growth expectations have improved, and stagflation trading has cooled [7]. 3.2.2 Finance - Stock index futures: Micro - cap risks have not been released, and the market is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to the trading congestion of micro - cap stocks [7]. - Stock index options: The market is stable, and cautious covered strategies are recommended. Attention should be paid to option market liquidity [7]. - Treasury bond futures: The short - end may be relatively strong, and the market is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital market and policy expectations [7]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - Gold and silver: The progress of China - US negotiations exceeded expectations, and precious metals will continue to adjust in the short term. Attention should be paid to Trump's tariff policies and the Fed's monetary policy [7]. 3.2.4 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price increase implementation. The market is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to tariff policies and shipping company pricing strategies [7]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - Steel: After the China - US talks, prices will fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the issuance progress of special bonds, steel exports, and hot metal production [7]. - Iron ore: Small - sample hot metal production slightly decreased, and macro factors will affect prices. The market is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipping, domestic hot metal production, weather, port ore inventory, and policy dynamics [7]. - Coke: Demand support is weakening, and market expectations are pessimistic. The market is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [7]. - Coking coal: Upstream production stoppages have increased, but trading has not improved. The market is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [7]. - Other products such as ferrosilicon, manganese silicon, glass, and soda ash are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each [7]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: With a weak US dollar index, copper prices are at a high level and are expected to be volatile [7]. - Alumina: Spot prices are falling, and the market is under pressure. The market is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to ore production resumption and electrolytic aluminum production resumption [7]. - Aluminum: Affected by Trump's steel and aluminum tariff policies, aluminum prices are at a high level and are expected to be volatile [7]. - Zinc: After progress in China - US economic and trade negotiations, opportunities for shorting zinc at high prices should be noted. The market is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to macro risks and zinc ore supply [7]. - Other non - ferrous metals such as lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, and industrial silicon are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each [7]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical risks have intensified, increasing price volatility. The market is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ production policies, Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and US sanctions on Iran [9]. - Other products such as LPG, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, etc. have different short - term trends and influencing factors, mainly showing range - bound fluctuations [9]. 3.2.8 Agriculture - Livestock: For pigs, high average weights will put pressure on spot and near - term prices. The market is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [9]. - Other agricultural products such as rubber, synthetic rubber, paper pulp, cotton, sugar, etc. are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Algeria has abundant oil and gas resources, with proven oil reserves of about 1.7 billion tons (1% of the global total, ranking 15th in the world) and proven recoverable natural gas reserves of 4.58 trillion cubic meters (2.37% of the world's total, ranking 10th). The oil and gas industry is the core of its economy, contributing about 30% of GDP and 60% of fiscal revenue. Crude oil and LNG exports account for over 85% of foreign trade, with 70% going to Europe and South Korea and India being major export destinations in the Asia - Pacific region [1]. - The dominance of the energy economy exposes Algeria to the risk of economic monoculture. Fluctuations in oil and gas prices directly affect fiscal stability, and the agricultural self - sufficiency rate is less than 50%, with food imports accounting for 15% of total imports. The country is actively promoting diversification, accelerating the development of manufacturing and tourism for sustainable growth [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 National Overview - **Geographical Location**: Algeria, covering 2.38 million square kilometers, is in northwest Africa, bordering the Mediterranean Sea. It is a strategic hub for energy trade between Africa and Europe. It has a tropical desert climate, with a Mediterranean climate in the north and arid conditions inland and in the south [7]. - **Economic Overview**: With a population of about 46.63 million, 99% of its residents are Muslims. Arabic is the official language, and French is also widely used. The economy is dominated by the energy industry. In 2024, its GDP was $24.763 billion, and per - capita GDP was $5,580. The government is promoting economic diversification by developing manufacturing and tourism [11]. - **Historical and Political Situation**: After a long history of foreign rule, Algeria became an independent republic in 1962, adopting a semi - presidential system. It has a two - chamber parliament and maintains diplomatic relations with 178 countries, following an independent and non - aligned foreign policy [12][13]. 3.2 Oil and Other Liquids - **Production**: Algeria produces low - sulfur light crude oil. Over the past decade, liquid fuel production has declined from 1.7 million barrels per day in 2014 to 1.4 million barrels per day in 2023, mainly due to a lack of new oil discoveries and the decline of mature fields [14]. - **Refining**: Sonatrach owns and operates the refineries, most of which were built between the 1960s and 1980s. Plans for new refineries have been delayed, with only the Hassi Messaoud refinery under construction, scheduled to start production in 2027 [17]. 3.3 Natural Gas - **Production and Consumption**: From 2014 - 2023, the average annual production of dry natural gas was about 3.3 Tcf, and the average annual consumption was 1.6 Tcf. In 2023, production reached a record high of 3.7 Tcf due to upstream investment and reduced gas reinjection in oil fields [19]. - **Export**: Algeria exports surplus natural gas. From 2014 - 2023, the average annual export was about 1.7 Tcf, and in 2023, it was about 1.9 Tcf, mostly to Europe. It has two LNG receiving stations and exports gas through three trans - continental pipelines [36][37]. 3.4 Coal Algeria does not produce coal and has extremely low consumption, with an average annual consumption of 2.4 thousand short tons from 2014 - 2023. It imports almost all metallurgical coal and a small amount of bituminous coal [23][44]. 3.5 Electricity - **Consumption and Generation**: In 2023, net electricity consumption was about 86 GWh, a 61% increase from ten years ago. The installed power generation capacity was 22.6 GW, with nearly 97% from fossil fuels. The installed capacity has increased by about 42% in the past decade [25]. - **Renewable Energy**: Algeria has potential in wind and solar energy. The government is accelerating the development of renewable energy, aiming for 15 GW of installed capacity by 2035, and has made some progress in attracting foreign investment [28][29]. 3.6 Energy Trade - **Oil and Other Liquids**: From 2015 - 2024, the average annual crude oil export was 532,000 barrels per day, and in 2024, it was 402,000 barrels per day. Europe is the main export destination. Oil product exports far exceed imports [30][33]. - **Natural Gas**: From 2014 - 2023, the average annual natural gas export was about 1.7 Tcf, and in 2023, it was about 1.9 Tcf, mainly to Europe. Exports are in the form of LNG and pipeline gas [36]. - **Coal**: All coal consumption is met through imports, mainly metallurgical coal [44]. - **Electricity**: Algeria both imports and exports electricity. From 2014 - 2023, the average annual import was about 0.5 GWh, and the average annual export was about 1.2 GWh. It is trying to expand electricity trade and has plans to export to Italy and other European markets [47].

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/06/13 中国期货每日简报 China Futures Daily Note 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: China and US reached a principled consensus on the framework of measures t ...

周四夜间，金价延续涨势，逼近3400美元关口。黄金价格在周三收涨 后延续上行趋势，交投于3380美元上方，逼近3400美元关键价位。 这一涨势主要受到美国国债收益率因低于预期的5月通胀数据大幅下 跌，以及美元持续疲软的双重支撑，为黄金提供了上行动能。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-6-13 要素共振推升⾦价 中东局势紧张，美国通胀不及预期，地缘与通胀形成要素共振，⾦价逼近 3400美元/盎司。 重点资讯： 1）美国总统特朗普周三表示，美中已达成一项让脆弱的贸易休战回 到正轨的协议，此前华盛顿和北京官员就一项包括关税税率在内的框 架达成了一致。 2）联合国核监督机构理事会周四宣布伊朗违反了其不扩散义务， 并宣布了反制措施，因为一名伊朗官员表示，一个"友好国家"已警 告伊朗，以色列可能会发动袭击。 3）美国劳工部劳工统计局周四表示，上个月最终需求生产者价格指 数反弹 0.1 %，4 月份修正后为下降 0.2% 。 价格逻辑： 多重基本面利好持续支撑金价。地缘政治紧张局势（以色列-伊朗对 抗升级、俄乌冲突加剧）、国际贸易不确定性（特朗普威胁加征关 税）以及对 ...