Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The easing of risk aversion demand dragged down the gold price. Yesterday, Japan considered cutting the issuance plan of long - term bonds, and consumer confidence improved more than expected, leading to a decline in precious metals [1]. - The short - term trend of gold depends on the battle for key support levels and signals from the Fed's policies. In the long run, the expansion of the US fiscal deficit and the surge in China's gold imports in April may provide resilience to the gold price, but short - term technical selling pressure and policy risks need to be watched out for [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - EU officials have asked major EU companies and CEOs to provide details of their investment plans in the US. After Trump revoked the threat of high - tariff on EU imports, the EU is preparing to advance trade negotiations with Washington [2]. - Chinese Premier Li Qiang said in Kuala Lumpur that economic globalization is experiencing unprecedented major shocks, and it is necessary to deepen mutual trust and expand opening - up [2]. - Japan will consider cutting the issuance of ultra - long - term bonds after the sharp rise in yields to ease market concerns about the deterioration of government finances [2][3]. Price Logic - Gold prices fell yesterday, breaking through the key support of $3,300 in the afternoon. The fundamentals are a mix of long and short factors, and market sentiment is affected by trade progress and economic data differentiation [3]. - US durable goods orders in April declined more than expected, but the March data was revised up to 7.6%, and the consumer confidence index rebounded to 98.0. Trump's plan to conduct trade negotiations with the EU weakened gold's safe - haven appeal. The strengthening of the US dollar offset the potential support of the decline in US Treasury yields on the gold price [3]. Outlook - Next week, focus on the US April PCE data and the first - quarter real GDP data, and continuously monitor changes in trade frictions. The weekly COMEX gold range is [3200, 3450], and the weekly COMEX silver range is [32, 35] [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures are all "neutral" or "wait - and - see", indicating a cautious stance [6][7][9] 2. Core View of the Report - The market for stocks and bonds should be approached with caution. Stock index futures are in a state of shrinking volume and awaiting a trend change, stock index options show an increase in hedging transactions, and treasury bond futures are expected to continue oscillating [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook Stock Index Futures - Yesterday, the market had shrinking volume and consolidation, with the All - A index dropping 0.3%. The impact of tariff disturbances has weakened, and the market is more sensitive to industry events. There is a possibility of a trend change, and currently, it's in an oscillating pattern with a downside tail - risk. It's recommended to wait and see [6] Stock Index Options - In a low - volatility environment of the underlying asset, the trading volume of the options market decreased slightly. The trading data of Shanghai 500ETF options shows an increase in hedging power. Volatility trend strategies should avoid varieties with extremely low volatility quantiles. The operation suggestion is to continue with the covered - call strategy, appropriately allocate short - term bullish spread portfolios, and lightly position in long - volatility strategies [7] Treasury Bond Futures - Yesterday, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The market is in an oscillating pattern, and it's difficult to break out of this pattern. Attention should be paid to upcoming PMI data and the central bank's May outright reverse repurchase. The short - end bullish sentiment may stabilize, while the long - end needs to be cautious [9] 3.2 Economic Calendar - The economic calendar includes the US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 24, 2025, the US April core PCE price index annual rate, and the US May University of Michigan consumer confidence index final value [11] 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - As of the end of April 2025, there are 163 domestic public - fund management institutions in China, with a total net asset value of public funds under management of 33.12 trillion yuan. From January to May 2025, the number and area of second - hand housing transactions in Guangzhou increased significantly year - on - year. The Hong Kong Exchange plans to launch same - day - expiration options contracts as early as the first half of 2026. Japan lost its status as the world's largest creditor nation for the first time in 34 years [11][12]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 策略推荐：期权端建议高位对冲防御为主 流动性方面，上周日均成交金额为 59.49 亿，环比下降约 7.65%。周内期 权量能变化较为剧烈，认为市场尚未形成方向上的突破合力，当下指数向 上、向下均有逻辑支撑，期权端对冲防御为主。 情绪方面，上周权益市场震荡偏强，中证 1000 指数周度涨幅 3.79%。期权 方面，各个品种市场成交额小幅回落 7.65%；周内期权流动性的另一个特 点是，由于标的行情起伏剧烈，期权成交额周二和周五分别下降接近 30%， 但是周四整体量能提升 53.89%。以中证 1000 股指期权为例，周四指数突 破 10 日均线破位上涨，交易放量与行情走强共振，市场整体情绪偏暖。但 我们也需要注意到，目前权指标的同步性强于指引性，同时标的在交易层 面存在拥挤过热的可能。因此期权策略方面，我们仍推荐对冲防御为主。 对冲不意味着看空，仅用以防范高位下调的回撤风险。 上周隐含波动率周度回落 1.54%，整体延续降波走势。但是需要明确的是， 双卖策略除了 Vega 端的收益外，也可能面临方向上突破的 Gamma 风险，并 且如果是隔空跳开行情，即使 De ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中信期货研究|权益及期权策略周度策略报告 2025-03-08 重要会议强化小盘成长主线 中期展望：震荡 下行风险：1）关税问题加码；2）增量资金不足 上行风险：1）增量资金涌入科技 权益及期权策略组： 研究员： 姜 沁 从业资格号 F3005640 投资咨询号 Z0012407 康遵禹 报告要点 本篇报告讨论了两会之后的主线及矛盾 摘要 股指观点：结合近期股债商相关系数的弱化，猜测 A 股主线由宏观主线切 向科技主线，伴随中证 1000 指数成交额向头部个股集中以及龙虎榜中的机 构席位加仓，市场出现了小盘成长显著强于大盘价值的局面，赚钱效应迫 使机构调仓换股捕捉科技股动量。结合部分指标，当前市场的确也有交易 过于拥挤以及科技股超买的特征，比如恒生指数卖空金额占比开始回升， 外资席位在恒生指数中的持有市值占比开始反复甚至下行。故当下指数向 上、向下均有逻辑支撑，向上突破依靠科技信仰，向下回撤依赖于反转效 应。故策略层面需做好两手准备，情绪高位时暂且维持观望，然而一旦科 创 50、中证 1000 等指数突破前高，此时需提防上行空间重新打开的风险， 信号出现后需要 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a focus on high volatility products within the commodity options market, suggesting potential investment opportunities in this area Core Insights - The report highlights a divergence in market sentiment, particularly within the metals sector, where copper and nickel show strong indicators with implied volatility rising significantly, especially nickel which saw a weekly increase of over 5% [5][12] - The gold VIX index remained stable around 17%, indicating limited risk premium and no clear reversal signs [5][12] - The energy and agricultural options markets experienced notable volatility, with crude oil volatility slightly increasing and a high PCR ratio indicating caution for short sellers [5][12] - Overall, the report emphasizes the importance of monitoring high volatility products for potential investment opportunities amidst the observed market sentiment divergence [5][12] Summary by Sections Hotspot Analysis - The report discusses the strong performance of the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly copper and nickel, with significant increases in implied volatility [5][12] - It notes that the gold VIX index has stabilized, suggesting limited risk premium [5][12] - The energy sector, particularly crude oil, has shown slight increases in volatility, while agricultural options like soybean meal have also experienced significant fluctuations [5][12] Commodity Options Market Liquidity - The report provides data on average daily trading volumes and positions across various commodities, indicating a healthy level of activity in the options market [14][17] - It highlights the percentage of options trading relative to futures trading, with notable figures for copper (37.68%) and aluminum (19.04%) [14][17] Weekly Strategy for Commodity Options - The report outlines specific strategies for various commodity options, recommending bullish strategies for copper due to optimistic macroeconomic conditions and supply constraints [20][22] - It suggests a cautious approach for agricultural products like soybean meal, focusing on monitoring policy changes and market conditions [51][63] Metal Options Sentiment Indicators - The report provides insights into the sentiment surrounding copper and aluminum options, indicating a bullish outlook for copper due to supply constraints and a strong demand recovery [22][31] - For aluminum, the report notes a slight decrease in inventory and suggests a strategy of covered calls [31] Agricultural Options Sentiment Indicators - The report discusses the sentiment for soybean meal, white sugar, and cotton, suggesting a focus on monitoring external factors such as international shipping and customs policies [51][63][75] - It emphasizes a defensive strategy for white sugar due to optimistic production forecasts from Brazil [63] Chemical Options Sentiment Indicators - The report highlights the sentiment for PTA and methanol options, indicating a bearish outlook due to weak demand and external pressures [89][100]

中信期货研究|宏观经济数据跟踪 2024-03-08 投资咨询业务资格： 季节性扰动下二季度前期抢出口可能延续 证监许可【2012】669 号 ——1&2 月外贸数据点评 事件 3 月 7 日，海关总署公布 2025 年前两个月外贸数据，以美元计价，1- 2 月出口同比 2.3%、预期 3.0%，2024 年 12 月出口同比 10.7%；1-2 月进口同比- 8.4%，2024 年 12 月为 1.0%；贸易顺差为 1705.2 亿美元、预期 2245.9 亿美元。 摘要： 1-2 月中国出口出现明显回落，而环比增长符合季节规律、仍体现一定韧性，出 口走弱或主要受高基数、春节错位和工作日减少等影响。以美元计价，2025 年前两 个月中国出口额同比 2.3%，预期 3.0%，2024 年 12 月出口同比 10.7%；前两个月出口 额均值较 2024 年 12 月增长为-19.6%，表现略好于 2018 年以来同期均值和中值表现。 从 2025 年 1-2 月中国出口额分国别情况、以及其他经济体出口来看： 考虑到我国转口贸易等，预计对等关税落地前我国"抢出口"将延续、支撑我 国短期出口，预计二季度上半程我国出 ...

中信期货研究|宏观经济数据跟踪 2025-3-9 投资咨询业务资格： 非农反弹不及预期，政府裁员影响初显 证监许可【2012】669 号 ——2 月美国非农数据点评 报告要点 2 月美国新增非农回暖、反弹不及预期，其中商品生产就业大幅增 加；而零售、联邦政府就业回落明显，政府裁员影响初显；失业率意外上升、因经 济原因从事兼职工作人数大幅增加，预计对外加税和政府裁员对就业影响将渐显。 摘要： 2 月美国新增非农 15.1 万人、预期 16 万人；1 月新增非农由 14.3 万人下修至 12.5 万人、去年 12 月新增非农由 30.7 万人上修至 32.2 万人，合计下修了 0.2 万人。 从就业结构看，2 月商品生产就业大幅增加，汽车行业、机械制造业就业小幅回 升，而零售业、联邦政府就业人数均出现大幅回落。2 月教育保健、商品生产、金融 活动就业为主要支撑，分别较前值增加 0.7、4.1、0.7 万人；而零售业、政府部门就 业分别回落 3.6、3.3 万人，或主要缘于部分地区恶劣天气影响、特朗普对外关税加 征、以及 2 月中下旬起减少联邦官僚机构的影响开始部分显现。 裁员计划对 2 月非农就业影响或较小，伴随 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中信期货研究|权益及期权策略周报（金融期权） 2025-03-01 博弈渐强，买权防御 报告要点 当前市场情绪有所回落，空波出现一定阻力，短期建议保护型对冲或双买过 渡，等待行情企稳重回空波策略。 摘要 ➢ 策略推荐：短期推荐买权对冲 流动性方面，上周日均成交金额为 72.78 亿，环比上升约 1%。期权量能逐 日上升，整体维持高位。在日度跟踪中我们发现，市场的博弈力量逐渐增 强，波动有聚集风险，因此短期暂停空波动率策略，后续需等待行情企稳。 情绪方面，本周成交量 PCR 逐日攀升趋势明显，且主要品种持仓量 PCR 全 部下穿 0.9 分位线，乐观动量打破，情绪高位回落。买方博弈对市场有一 定扰动，从比值 PCR 上可以看出 500ETF 以及 MO 抄底力量略强，而大盘品 种并未回到月初高位，小盘依旧相对更加被看好。因此我们认为期权市场 能体现出一定程度的情绪回落，但是小盘处的正 Delta 仍可作为政策预期 交易布局之选。 波动率方面，上周市场政策博弈渐起，隐波出现一定程度分化，周五部分 品种升波明显，短期资金入场对中期空波趋势造成扰动。本周进入 3 月份 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中信期货研究|权益及期权策略周报（股指） 2025-03-01 中性政策预期+关税压力，IM 转向止盈观察 报告要点 向上风险点：1）两会政策刺激超预期，2）外资回流超预期 权益及期权策略组： 研究员： 康遵禹 从业资格号 F03090802 投资咨询号 Z0016853 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。中信期货不会因为关注、 收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。如本报告涉及行业分析或上市公司相关内容，旨在对期货市场及其 相关性进行比较论证，列举解释期货品种相关特性及潜在风险，不涉及对其行业或上市公司的相关推荐，不构成对任何主体进行或不进行某 项行为的建议或意见，不得将本报告的任何内容据以作为中信期货所作的承诺或声明。在任何情况下，任何主体依据本报告所进行的任何作 为或不作为，中信期货不承担任何责任。 两大政策主题交易的风险 摘要 观点：股市本轮上涨已演绎超三周，临近两会政策节点，周五出现周线"一 阴穿二阳"，中小盘指数出现技术破位。上周我们提示港股逼近右侧阶段反 ...

Group 1: AI Infrastructure and Cloud Investment - Deepseek's breakthrough technology significantly lowers costs and user barriers, boosting demand for cloud computing from government and enterprises[1] - Major cloud providers in China are expected to increase capital expenditure (Capex) in AI, with a projected total Capex of approximately 500 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of nearly 65%[2] - The global Capex for leading cloud service providers (CSPs) is estimated to reach $228.3 billion in 2024 and $288.1 billion in 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of about 55% and 30% respectively[2] Group 2: Data Center Growth and Copper Demand - The data center industry is entering an upward cycle, with significant increases in capital expenditure expected from leading cloud providers, driving demand for data centers[3] - China's data center copper consumption is projected to grow from 1.2% to 2.5% of total copper consumption from 2024 to 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31.3%[4] - Total copper consumption for data centers in China is expected to reach 42,000 tons by 2027, with annual growth rates of 36% in 2025 and 26% in 2026[6] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Risks - The IDC industry is currently at a bottom reversal stage, with capital expenditure growth shifting from negative to positive, indicating a recovery in demand[3] - Key risk factors include slower-than-expected development of large models, lower-than-expected capital expenditure from cloud providers, and potential changes in the macroeconomic environment[7] - The demand for AI data centers (AIDC) is expected to increase significantly, with China's intelligent computing capacity projected to double to 2,328 EFLOPS by 2025[3]