1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock market shows a pattern of oscillating rotation, while the bond market sentiment has turned positive. In the stock index futures market, events have catalyzed the rotation from large - financial sectors to TMT sectors. For stock index options, a covered - call defense strategy is recommended. In the treasury bond futures market, the sentiment has improved, with different impacts on long - and short - term bonds [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - The event has catalyzed the rotation from large - financial sectors to TMT sectors. The IF, IH, IC, and IM basis and spread data have changed compared to the previous trading day, and their positions have also changed. The market is affected by events such as NVIDIA's sales plan in China and the Central Urban Work Conference. The anti - involution trading is expected to continue until the Politburo meeting in July. It is recommended to configure IM long positions before the meeting [7][8] 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - A covered - call defense strategy is recommended. The trading volume of each option variety has increased by 78.86%, while the implied volatility has decreased by an average of 0.27%. The decline in implied volatility is mainly due to the weakening of far - month implied volatility, and the short - term market trend is oscillating and weak [2][8] 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - The bond market sentiment has turned positive. The treasury bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rising by 0.47%, 0.18%, 0.13%, and 0.04% respectively. The central bank made a large - scale net investment, but the capital market was still tight during the tax - payment period. The GDP growth in the first half of the year was 5.3%, which the bond market had already priced in. The stock - bond seesaw effect supported the bond market. The improvement of risk preference is negative for the long - term bonds, while the central bank's care for the capital market and large banks' purchase of short - term bonds are positive for short - term bonds. It is recommended to pay attention to the steepening of the yield curve [2][9][10] 3.2 Economic Calendar - The economic data of China and the US in June are presented, including China's export amount, new RMB loans, industrial added value, and the US CPI. The actual values of some data deviate from the predicted values [12] 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Important Meetings**: The Central Urban Work Conference was held, emphasizing the transformation of urban development from large - scale incremental expansion to stock quality improvement and efficiency enhancement [12] - **Economic Data**: The GDP in the first half of the year was 66.0536 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.3%. The social consumer goods retail sales and industrial added value data in June are also provided [13] - **AI Computing Power**: NVIDIA has obtained approval to sell H20 chips to China and will launch RTXpro GPU [13] 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - **Stock Index Futures Data**: The basis, spread, and position data of IF, IH, IC, and IM are provided [7] - **Stock Index Options Data**: No specific data content provided - **Treasury Bond Futures Data**: The trading volume, open interest, spread, and basis data of T, TF, TS, and TL are provided, along with the central bank's open - market operations [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities, with the policy - driven logic strengthening. There is a higher probability of incremental domestic policies being implemented in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the impact of breaking the "involution" on the supply - side on assets. Overseas, attention should be paid to the progress of tariff frictions and geopolitical risks. In the long run, the weak - dollar pattern continues. Volatility jumps should be guarded against, and non - dollar assets should be focused on. Strategic allocation to resources such as gold should be maintained [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The "reciprocal tariff" rates of the United States on most economies have been announced. Except for Japan and Malaysia, most rates have been lowered, and short - term tariff uncertainty has declined. In May, the US wholesale sales monthly rate was - 0.3% (expected 0.2%, previous value revised from 0.1% to 0%), and the wholesale inventory monthly rate final value was - 0.3% (expected - 0.3%, previous value - 0.3%). In June, the 1 - year inflation expectation of the New York Fed was 3.0% (expected 3.1%, previous value 3.2%). In June, the new non - farm payrolls in the US were better than expected again, with a significant rebound in government employment and a large decline in private - sector employment. The proportion of permanent unemployment increased, and the number of continued unemployment claims also continued to rise. Coupled with the slowdown in hourly wage growth, it indicates concerns in the job market. On July 4, the "Big and Beautiful" bill in the US was implemented, which may have limited long - term boost to the US economy and will increase the US deficit by $3.3 trillion in the next 10 years [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: In June, China's export volume rebounded slightly to 5.8% year - on - year, CPI rose 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI fell 3.6% year - on - year. The year - on - year growth rate of China's export volume in June increased by 1.0 percentage points compared with May. The recovery of exports to the US was the main boost, and the year - on - year growth rate of exports to the US increased by 18.4 percentage points compared with May, possibly mainly benefiting from the "rush to import" in the US after the relaxation of Sino - US tariffs in May. In addition, exports to ASEAN remained at a high level, and the "rush to re - export" continued to play a role. In June 2025, the national consumer price rose 0.1% year - on - year, with food prices falling 0.3%, non - food prices rising 0.1%, consumer goods prices falling 0.2%, and service prices rising 0.5%. On July 1, the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission proposed to "regulate the low - price and disorderly competition of enterprises in accordance with regulations and promote the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity." As early as July 2024, the Politburo meeting raised the issue of "involution" to the central level. Commodities oriented to domestic demand such as coking coal, rebar, and glass, as well as polysilicon, which has been falling since the beginning of the year, were greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy during the week [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Macro - Overseas stagflation trading has cooled down, and the long - short allocation ideas are differentiated. Domestically, there are moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the fiscal end implements the established policies in the short term. Overseas, the inflation expectation structure has flattened, the economic growth expectation has improved, and stagflation trading has cooled down [7]. 3.2.2 Finance - Stock market sentiment has rebounded, and the bond market maintains a volatile outlook. Stock index futures continue a moderate upward trend but are affected by insufficient incremental funds and are expected to fluctuate. Stock index options should be maintained with caution due to the continuous deterioration of option liquidity and are expected to fluctuate. Bond market sentiment has weakened for treasury bond futures, and they are affected by factors such as unexpected tariffs, unexpected supply, and unexpected monetary easing and are expected to fluctuate [7]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - Risk appetite has risen, and precious metals are in short - term adjustment. Gold and silver continue to adjust, affected by Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy, and are expected to fluctuate [7]. 3.2.4 Shipping - Sentiment has declined, and attention is paid to the sustainability of the increase in the loading rate in June. For the container shipping route to Europe, attention is paid to the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases, affected by tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies, and is expected to fluctuate [7]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - Market sentiment leads, and attention is focused on the realization of positive factors. Steel products have continuous positive news and strong performance on the disk, affected by the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production, and are expected to fluctuate. Iron ore has limited fundamental negatives, and macro sentiment boosts the ore price, affected by overseas mine production and shipment, domestic molten iron production, weather factors, port ore inventory changes, and policy - level dynamics, and is expected to fluctuate. Coke has limited supply - demand contradictions, and the first round of price increases has started, affected by steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment, and is expected to fluctuate. Coking coal has slow supply recovery and slow upstream de - stocking, affected by steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment, and is expected to fluctuate. Silicon iron has little supply - demand contradiction and follows the sector's fluctuations, affected by raw material costs and steel procurement, and is expected to fluctuate. Manganese silicon has limited supply - demand drivers and follows the sector's operation, affected by cost prices and overseas quotes, and is expected to fluctuate. Glass stimulates speculation on the disk, and inventory has slightly decreased, affected by spot production and sales, and is expected to fluctuate. Soda ash still has an oversupply situation, and inventory continues to accumulate, affected by soda ash inventory, and is expected to fluctuate [7]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - The game of reciprocal tariffs vs. the expectation of domestic policy stimulus, non - ferrous metals stop falling and rebound. Copper is affected by the possible early implementation of US tariffs on copper, and its price is under pressure, affected by supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, the Fed being less dovish than expected, domestic demand recovery falling short of expectations, and economic recession, and is expected to fluctuate. Alumina is affected by the rumor that the mining license incident has eased, and the alumina disk has declined, affected by ore production not recovering as expected, electrolytic aluminum production recovering more than expected, and extreme sector trends, and is expected to fluctuate. Aluminum has a large inventory accumulation, and the aluminum price is under pressure to decline, affected by macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand falling short of expectations, and is expected to fluctuate. Zinc has a supply - demand surplus, and the zinc price fluctuates weakly, affected by macro - turning risks and zinc ore supply recovering more than expected, and is expected to fluctuate and decline. Lead has a solid cost support, and the lead price fluctuates, affected by supply - side disruptions and slow battery exports, and is expected to fluctuate. Nickel has increased nickel ore exports from Philippine nickel enterprises, and the short - term nickel price fluctuates widely, affected by unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and supply not being released as expected in some links, and is expected to fluctuate and decline. Stainless steel has a weakening nickel - iron price, and the stainless - steel disk runs weakly, affected by Indonesian policy risks and demand growth exceeding expectations, and is expected to fluctuate. Tin has a resilient supply - demand fundamental, and the tin price fluctuates, affected by the expected resumption of production in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations, and is expected to fluctuate. Industrial silicon is affected by the continuous "anti - involution" sentiment, and the silicon price has rebounded, affected by unexpected supply - side production cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations, and is expected to fluctuate. Lithium carbonate is affected by the speculation of supply disruptions under the "anti - involution" background, and the lithium carbonate position has increased and the price has risen, affected by demand falling short of expectations, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs, and is expected to fluctuate [7]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - OPEC+ has increased production more than expected, and crude oil will drag down the energy and chemical sector to fluctuate weakly. Crude oil has supply pressure, and attention is paid to geopolitical disturbances, affected by OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations, and is expected to fluctuate. LPG's disk returns to trading the fundamental looseness, and the PG disk may fluctuate weakly, affected by cost - end progress such as crude oil and overseas propane, and is expected to fluctuate and decline. Asphalt futures continue to fall, affected by unexpected demand, and are expected to decline. High - sulfur fuel oil's discount continues to fall, and its weakness is strengthened, affected by crude oil and natural gas prices, and is expected to decline. Low - sulfur fuel oil's low - high sulfur spread continues to rebound, affected by crude oil and natural gas prices, and is expected to decline. Methanol has a decline in domestic operation against an increase in imports, and it fluctuates weakly, affected by macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics, and is expected to fluctuate. Urea has a situation of strong domestic supply and weak demand that is difficult to change, and it depends on exports to drive, affected by market transaction conditions, policy trends, and demand realization, and is expected to fluctuate. Ethylene glycol has a stable basis, and devices are restarting one after another, and it continues to fluctuate, affected by ethylene glycol inventory, and is expected to fluctuate and rise. PX is stable for the time being, and it fluctuates strongly, affected by crude oil fluctuations and downstream device abnormalities, and is expected to fluctuate. PTA has a weakening supply - demand situation and a strong cost - end PX, and it fluctuates, affected by polyester production, and is expected to fluctuate. Short - fiber has a falling basis, rising processing fees, and its absolute value follows the raw material fluctuations, affected by terminal textile and clothing exports, and is expected to fluctuate and rise. Bottle chips start to be overhauled, and the bottle - chip processing fees reach the bottom, affected by the later start - up of bottle chips, and are expected to fluctuate. PP is driven by commodity sentiment and fluctuates, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations, and is expected to fluctuate. Plastic has limited spot support and fluctuates, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations, and is expected to fluctuate. Styrene is in a driving vacuum period and fluctuates, affected by oil prices, macro policies, and device dynamics, and is expected to fluctuate and decline. PVC has strong expectations and weak reality and fluctuates, affected by expectations, costs, and supply, and is expected to fluctuate. Caustic soda's spot price continues to rebound, and it is cautiously optimistic, affected by market sentiment, start - up, and demand, and is expected to fluctuate [9]. 3.2.8 Agriculture - There may be La Nina at the end of the year, which boosts the sentiment of going long on protein meal. Oils are affected by the good growth of US soybeans, and market sentiment has weakened, affected by US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data, and are expected to fluctuate. Protein meal, corn, and starch may have a La Nina at the end of the year, which boosts the market sentiment of going long. Protein meal is affected by US soybean area and weather, domestic demand, macro - situations, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars, and is expected to fluctuate and rise. Corn is affected by demand falling short of expectations, macro - situations, and weather, and is expected to fluctuate and decline. Rubber is supported by macro sentiment, and the rubber price runs, affected by producing - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes, and is expected to fluctuate. Synthetic rubber fluctuates on the disk, affected by large fluctuations in crude oil, and is expected to fluctuate. Pulp is dominated by macro factors and rises within the range, affected by macro - economic changes and US dollar - denominated quotes, and is expected to fluctuate. Cotton's price fluctuates narrowly, affected by demand and output, and is expected to fluctuate. Sugar is affected by changes in imports, affected by abnormal weather, and is expected to fluctuate. Logs are in a dilemma and fluctuate, affected by shipment volume and dispatch volume, and are expected to fluctuate and decline [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [6] Core View - The macro - sentiment has temporarily cooled down, and the black sector has slightly declined. The macro - data in June was decent, weakening the expectation of strong stimulus policies. The statement of the Central Urban Conference did not exceed expectations, leading to a temporary cooling of sentiment. The industrial contradictions are not significant. The rally in the futures market has stimulated the mid - and downstream sectors to replenish stocks, driving up the spot prices. The fundamentals have changed little, and the macro - trend dominates the off - season prices, with the market expected to oscillate at a high level [1][2] Summary by Directory Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased as expected. On the demand side, steel mills' profitability improved slightly, and the iron - making volume decreased but remained at a high level year - on - year. Due to concentrated arrivals, the congestion at some ports increased, resulting in a slight reduction in port inventories. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. With positive market sentiment and good fundamentals, the futures prices are oscillating strongly [2] Carbon Element - Some previously - shut - down mines in the main production areas are gradually resuming production, but there are still mines with production restrictions due to maintenance and underground issues, and resources in some regions are still tight, with the overall supply slowly recovering. At the import end, the China - Mongolia border port has been closed and is expected to resume customs clearance on Wednesday, during which the inventory in the port supervision area continued to decline. Coke enterprises have initiated the first price increase, but steel mills have objections to the increase, delaying the price - hike. Downstream steel mills have good profits, high production enthusiasm, and are actively replenishing stocks. The coke fundamentals are healthy, with strong cost support, and the price increase is expected to be implemented soon, with the short - term futures market expected to oscillate [3] Alloy - Recently, the manganese ore price has remained stable, but the port inventory has increased slightly. The cost of high - grade ore arrivals in the future is expected to drop significantly, and the support for ore prices is weak. On the supply side, manufacturers' profitability has improved, driving an increase in production resumption, and the daily output of ferromanganese silicon has increased for 8 consecutive weeks. On the demand side, the output of finished steel products has remained at a relatively high level, and the downstream demand for ferromanganese silicon is still resilient. The cost support for ferrosilicon has weakened, and the regional profits have continued to recover. On the supply side, the pace of manufacturers' production resumption has been slow, but there is still room for an increase in supply. On the demand side, the steel output has remained at a relatively high level, and the downstream steel - making demand is still resilient. The current supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is healthy [3] Glass - In the off - season, the demand has declined, and the deep - processing demand has continued to weaken. Although the sales at the beginning of the week were good due to downstream restocking, the sustainability is questionable. After the futures price rally, speculative demand may be stimulated. On the supply side, there are still 2 production lines waiting to produce glass, and the daily melting volume is still on the rise. The upstream inventory has decreased slightly, and the internal contradictions are not prominent, but market sentiment has a significant impact. Recently, the anti - cut - throat competition sentiment has increased, and the market's concern about supply - side production cuts has risen. After the price increase, the mid - and downstream sectors have continued to purchase, and manufacturers have raised prices accordingly. The futures market is expected to oscillate [6] Soda Ash - The oversupply situation of soda ash remains unchanged. There are rumors in the market about anti - cut - throat competition in the photovoltaic industry, with an expected significant reduction in daily melting volume. Currently, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has slightly declined, and the demand for heavy soda ash has flattened, with a weak demand outlook. The downstream demand for light soda ash is weak, and manufacturers have continued to cut prices. Market sentiment affects the futures market, and the long - term oversupply situation is difficult to change. Enterprises are advised to seize the short - term positive - feedback hedging opportunities [6] Specific Varieties Steel - The macro - data shows that the overall economy is still strong. After the Central Urban Work Conference, the expectation of policy stimulus has cooled down. The crude steel output in the first 6 months decreased by 3.0% year - on - year, and the pressure for subsequent production cuts is limited. The futures market is oscillating at a high level. The supply and demand of both rebar and hot - rolled coils have decreased, and the inventory changes are limited, with the absolute inventory at a relatively low level in history. The downstream maintains a normal purchasing rhythm. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to policy implementation and off - season terminal demand [8] Iron Ore - The spot market quotations fluctuated within 4 yuan/ton, and port transactions increased. Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased as expected. On the demand side, steel mills' profitability improved slightly, and the iron - making volume decreased but remained at a high level year - on - year. Due to concentrated arrivals, the congestion at some ports increased, resulting in a slight reduction in port inventories. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. With positive market sentiment and good fundamentals, the futures prices are oscillating strongly. The demand is at a high level, and there is limited downward - driving force in the fundamentals. Before the market sentiment weakens, the price is likely to rise rather than fall, but the upside is also limited, with the price mainly oscillating [8][9] Scrap Steel - The average price of crushed scrap in East China increased slightly. The apparent demand and output of rebar decreased slightly, in line with off - season characteristics, and the total inventory continued to decline, indicating some resilience in off - season demand. The supply of scrap steel has increased slightly on a daily basis but is still low year - on - year, with resources slightly tight. On the demand side, after the increase in steel prices, the profits of electric - arc furnaces in some regions have recovered, and the operating hours have increased, leading to a slight increase in the daily consumption of electric - arc furnaces. The iron - making volume of blast furnaces has decreased slightly, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process production has also decreased. The total daily consumption of scrap steel in both long - and short - process production has decreased. The inventory in steel mills has decreased slightly. The fundamentals of scrap steel are stable, and the spot prices have followed the upward trend of the black sector due to macro - sentiment [9] Coke - In the futures market, coke prices oscillated. On the supply side, most coke enterprises maintained normal production, while a few with profit pressure reduced production, and the coke output decreased slightly. Coke enterprises have initiated the first price increase, but steel mills have objections to the increase, delaying the price - hike. Downstream steel mills have good profits, high production enthusiasm, and are actively replenishing stocks. The coke fundamentals are healthy, with strong cost support, and the price increase is expected to be implemented soon. The futures market is expected to oscillate in the short term [9][12][13] Coking Coal - In the futures market, coking coal prices first declined and then recovered, showing an overall oscillating trend. On the supply side, some previously - shut - down mines in the main production areas are gradually resuming production, but there are still mines with production restrictions, and the overall supply has not returned to the previous high level. At the import end, the China - Mongolia border port has been closed and is expected to resume customs clearance on Wednesday, during which the inventory in the port supervision area continued to decline. On the demand side, the coke output decreased slightly, but there is still a rigid demand for coking coal, and downstream enterprises are actively replenishing stocks, with the mine inventory continuously decreasing. The current supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and attention should be paid to mine production resumption and Mongolian coal imports. The futures market is expected to oscillate in the short term [13] Glass - The average national price of glass increased slightly. The macro - sentiment has cooled down. In the off - season, the demand has declined, and the deep - processing orders have decreased month - on - month, with the inventory days of raw glass increasing, indicating mainly speculative purchases by the downstream, and the real demand has not improved significantly. On the supply side, there are still 2 production lines waiting to produce glass, and the daily melting volume is still on the rise. The upstream inventory has decreased slightly, and the internal contradictions are not prominent, but market sentiment has a significant impact. Recently, the anti - cut - throat competition sentiment has increased, and the market's concern about supply - side production cuts has risen. After the price increase, the mid - and downstream sectors have continued to purchase, and manufacturers have raised prices accordingly. The futures market is expected to oscillate. In the short term, it is necessary to observe the pace and intensity of policy introduction. If the policies exceed expectations, there may be a wave of restocking and price increases. In the long term, market - based capacity reduction is needed, and the market is expected to oscillate [14][15] Soda Ash - The price of heavy soda ash delivered to Shahe decreased. The supply capacity has not been cleared, and the long - term pressure still exists, with high - level production and supply pressure. Today, the output of Yuanxing decreased, and some soda ash plants are under maintenance, resulting in an overall decrease in output. On the demand side, heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid - demand procurement. There are still some ignition production lines that have not produced glass, and the daily melting volume of float glass is expected to increase. There are rumors in the market about anti - cut - throat competition in the photovoltaic industry, with an expected significant reduction in daily melting volume. Currently, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has slightly declined, and the demand for heavy soda ash has flattened, with a weak demand outlook. The downstream demand for light soda ash is weak, and manufacturers have continued to cut prices. Market sentiment affects the futures market, and the long - term oversupply situation is difficult to change. In July, there are planned maintenance activities, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [14][16] Ferromanganese Silicon - The futures prices of ferromanganese silicon oscillated. The supply - demand contradiction in the spot market is limited, and the prices are stable. The first price increase of coke has been implemented, strengthening the cost support for ferromanganese silicon. Recently, the manganese ore price has remained stable, but the port inventory has increased slightly, and the cost of high - grade ore arrivals in the future is expected to drop significantly, with weak support for ore prices. On the supply side, manufacturers' profitability has improved, driving an increase in production resumption, and the daily output of ferromanganese silicon has increased for 8 consecutive weeks. On the demand side, the output of finished steel products has remained at a relatively high level, and the downstream demand for ferromanganese silicon is still resilient. The tender price of HBIS in July was higher than expected. In the short term, the futures prices are expected to follow the sector's fluctuations. In the long term, the supply - demand relationship will tend to be looser, and it will be more difficult to reduce inventory, with pressure on prices [16] Ferrosilicon - The futures prices of ferrosilicon oscillated. The fundamentals have limited driving force, and the spot market has remained stable. The price of semi - coke decreased this week, weakening the cost support for ferrosilicon and recovering the regional profits. On the supply side, the pace of manufacturers' production resumption has been slow, and attention should be paid to the future increase in production. On the demand side, the steel output has remained at a relatively high level, and the downstream steel - making demand is still resilient. The tender price of HBIS in July was higher than expected. The supply of magnesium ingots is temporarily tight, but the downstream's acceptance of high - priced products is low, and there is resistance to price increases. The current supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is healthy. In the short term, the futures prices are expected to follow the sector's fluctuations. In the long term, the market supply gap will narrow, making it more difficult to reduce inventory, with pressure on prices [17]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-7-16 通胀符合预期，贵⾦属短线延续震荡 美国6⽉CPI数据同环⽐皆有回升，但幅度符合预期，基数效应较低、能源 价格阶段性回升以及关税传导的部分体现共同推升通胀，数据公布后降息 预期变动不⼤，美元及美债收益率短线⾛⾼，对贵⾦属价格形成⼀定压 制。短期⻩⾦预计维持区间震荡，中⻓期看多观点不变。⽩银在40美元关 ⼝受阻后，短线震荡回落。中期维持对⽩银趋势看多，弹性谨慎的观点。 重点资讯： 1）美国6月未季调CPI同比升2.7%，为2月以来新高，预期升2. 7%，前值升2.4%；季调后CPI环比升0.3%，预期升0.3%，前值升0. 1%。未季调核心CPI同比升2.9%，预期升3.0%，前值升2.8%；季调后 核心CPI环比升0.2%，预期升0.3%，前值升0.1%。 2）美国7月纽约联储制造业指数5.5，预期-9，前值-16。其中，制造 业就业指数9.2，前值增4.7；制造业新订单指数2.0，前值-14.2； 制造业物价获得指数25.7，前值26.6。 3）美国财政部长贝森特建议，美联储主席鲍威尔在2026年5月卸任时 同时 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual outlooks for different agricultural products, including "oscillating" for most products, "oscillating and declining" for corn and starch, and "oscillating weakly" for logs [5][6][7]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Most agricultural products are expected to oscillate in the short - term, with different influencing factors for each product. The market is affected by various factors such as weather, supply and demand, trade relations, and macro - economic conditions [5][6][7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: The growth of US soybeans is good, and market sentiment has weakened. - **Logic**: As of July 13, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, higher than expected. The US foreign trade tension has increased, and the US dollar rose on Monday. The expected increase in US biodiesel demand for US soybean oil and the increase in the biodiesel blending ratio in Brazil are positive factors. However, the large arrival volume of imported soybeans in China and the expected increase in palm oil production in Malaysia are negative factors. - **Outlook**: The oil market is expected to continue to oscillate and differentiate in the near future [5]. 3.1.2 Protein Meals - **View**: The good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans is higher than expected, and US soybeans are weaker than Dalian soybean meal. - **Logic**: International trade tensions are high. US soybeans are growing smoothly, but the export prospects are worrying. Brazilian soybean exports are still high. In China, the supply pressure dominates the weakness of the spot market, but concerns about Sino - US trade support the futures price. - **Outlook**: The domestic double - meal futures are stronger than US soybeans, and the domestic futures market is stronger than the spot market. The basis is expected to weaken. In the short - term, it will oscillate within a range, and in the long - term, it will be bullish [6]. 3.1.3 Corn/Starch - **View**: Pay attention to the risk of a periodic rebound. - **Logic**: The supply of ports and deep - processing enterprises has decreased slightly. The futures price rebounded slightly during the day and then fell back. The cumulative auction volume of imported corn is 137 million tons, and the transaction volume is about 82 million tons. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate and decline in the short - term [7]. 3.1.4 Pigs - **View**: Supply and demand are stable, and pig prices oscillate. - **Logic**: In the short - term, large pigs are still being sold off, but the average weight has bottomed out and rebounded. The planned slaughter volume of group farms in July has decreased. In the medium - term, the number of new - born piglets from January to May 2025 has increased, and the slaughter volume is expected to increase in the second half of the year. In the long - term, the production capacity is still high. - **Outlook**: The reform expectation on the supply side boosts the sentiment of pig futures. The price is expected to oscillate, but there is still supply pressure in the medium - and long - term [9]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: It runs oscillating and strongly. - **Logic**: It is affected by capital sentiment at night and then adjusts with the market during the day. The trading logic follows the macro - sentiment. The supply in Asian producing areas is limited due to the rainy season, and the demand from tire enterprises has recovered. - **Outlook**: It may follow the overall commodity fluctuations before the fundamental situation provides guidance [11][13]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures price oscillates within a range. - **Logic**: It follows the movement of natural rubber and the overall commodity market, but the amplitude is limited. There is no obvious upward driving force, but there is support from the macro - environment and the improvement of butadiene trading. - **Outlook**: It is expected to continue to oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to device changes [14]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **View**: Cotton prices fluctuate within a narrow range. - **Logic**: According to the USDA's static balance sheet for the 25/26 season, the global, Chinese, and US cotton markets are all loose. The expected increase in Xinjiang's cotton production and the weak demand in the off - season are negative factors. However, the low inventory before the new cotton is listed provides support. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a reference range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton. There is a risk of price decline when a large amount of new cotton is listed [15]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **View**: Pay attention to import changes. - **Logic**: In the medium - and long - term, sugar prices are weak and under downward pressure due to the expected oversupply in the 25/26 season. In the short - term, the decline in Brazil's sugar production and the high sales - to - production ratio in China support the price, but the increase in Brazil's production and exports and China's imports will increase the supply pressure. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, sugar prices are expected to oscillate weakly; in the short - term, they are expected to oscillate [17]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **View**: The macro - environment dominates the trend, and pulp prices are rising within a range. - **Logic**: The futures price rises with the macro - atmosphere. The supply and demand are in a stalemate, and the upward driving force comes from the macro - environment. The low US dollar price, high overseas pulp mill inventory, and weak downstream demand limit the upward space. - **Outlook**: The pulp futures are expected to oscillate due to the warm macro - atmosphere, weak supply - demand guidance, and low absolute valuation [18]. 3.1.10 Logs - **View**: The outbound volume has declined, and the inventory has increased. - **Logic**: The new - week outbound volume of logs has decreased, and the inventory has increased. The spot price is weak due to the impact of deliverable goods. The cost of both buyers and sellers has increased during the 07 delivery. The overall demand for logs this year is stable, and the inventory - reduction rhythm is slow. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate weakly around the delivery cost in the short - term [19]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report mentions variety data monitoring for oils and fats, corn and starch, pigs, cotton and yarn, sugar, pulp, and logs, but no specific data content is provided in the given text.

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - On July 14, equity indices and CGB futures declined, while commodity futures showed a relatively balanced performance with new energy metals leading the gains [12][15]. - For lithium carbonate, the short - term price increase is driven by supply speculation, and in the long run, the surplus logic remains. It is recommended to wait for inventory to rise and price to rebound before short - selling [19][24]. - Crude oil's production increase negative impact is being digested, and under the pattern of strong reality and weak expectation, it is expected to fluctuate. The rebound space is limited by the inventory build - up expectation [27][31]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to macro sentiment and inventory build - up rhythm. In the medium - and long - term, there are concerns about consumption, and a high - level short - selling strategy is advisable [33][36]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On July 14, equity indices and CGB futures declined. Among commodity futures, new energy metals led the gains. The top three gainers were lithium carbonate, silicon metal, and crude oil, while the top three decliners were Chinese jujube, aluminum, and cast aluminum alloy [12][13][15]. 1.2 Daily Rise 1.2.1 Lithium Carbonate - On July 14, lithium carbonate rose 3.7% to 66480 yuan/ton. The price increase is due to supply speculation under improved fundamentals, with weak supply - demand drive. In the long run, the surplus logic remains. Short - term upstream - downstream game is intense, and warehouse receipts have decreased rapidly. It is recommended to avoid risks and short - sell at a high level after inventory rises and price rebounds [19][23]. - Market attention to the photovoltaic industry's "anti - involution" and supply - side reform has increased, and lithium carbonate has followed the upward trend. The "Yichun Mines Approval Problem" news had no impact on production. Supply - demand fundamentals have not changed much, and warehouse receipt volume is the key. Supply has increased, but imports may decline in July - August. Demand growth was high from January to June, and the July off - season impact is limited. Social inventory is accumulating, and warehouse receipt inventory has decreased in July, but may recover in August. Policy changes include domestic "anti - involution" sentiment and the US "Big Beautiful Act" affecting demand [20][22][24]. 1.2.2 Crude Oil - On July 14, crude oil rose 2.6% to 527.5 yuan/barrel. The negative impact of production increase is being digested, and inventory build - up is limited. Under the pattern of strong reality and weak expectation, it is expected to fluctuate. The rebound space is limited by the inventory build - up expectation. Refinery operating rates are high during the peak demand season, but wait for refinery gross profit and operating rate to decline and inventory to accumulate [27][30][31]. 1.3 Daily Drop 1.3.1 Aluminum - On July 14, aluminum fell 1.4% to 20415 yuan/ton. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate due to macro sentiment and inventory build - up rhythm. In the medium - and long - term, there are concerns about consumption. China's electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased in June, and downstream industry average operating rate decreased slightly this week. Short - term anti - involution expectation supports the price, but fundamentals show marginal weakening, and the subsequent price depends on real consumption [33][34][36]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - China's goods trade import and export in the first half of the year reached 21.79 trillion yuan, a YoY increase of 2.9%. Exports were 13 trillion yuan, up 7.2%, and imports were 8.79 trillion yuan, down 2.7%. In June, import and export growth rates were positive and rising [39]. - China will implement zero - tariff treatment for 53 African countries having diplomatic relations with it. Since December 1 last year, China has given zero - tariff treatment to all least - developed countries having diplomatic relations with it, and imports from these countries achieved double - digit growth in the first half of this year [39]. - China - US trade decreased by 9.3% YoY in the first half of the year. Affected by the US "reciprocal tariffs", it changed from growth in Q1 to decline in Q2. Recent Geneva and London talks have achieved progress, and both sides are implementing the London Framework outcomes [39][40]. 2.2 Industry News - The increment of China's social financing scale from January to June was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. RMB loans to the real economy increased by 12.74 trillion yuan, corporate bond net financing was 1.15 trillion yuan, and government bond net financing was 7.66 trillion yuan [40]. - It is reasonable for small and medium - sized banks to appropriately increase bond holdings within the supervision - permitted scope, but they need to balance investment returns and risk - taking [40].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core Views - Short - term, gold is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend within a range, and the medium - to - long - term bullish view remains unchanged. Silver has gained greater short - term elasticity, but mid - term elasticity should be viewed with caution while maintaining a bullish trend view [1][3]. - The report suggests paying attention to US inflation and retail data changes this week and their impact on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [1][3]. 3) Summaries by Related Content Key Information - Trump called for Fed Chair Powell to resign, and there is a dispute between Trump and Powell over the Fed's $2.5 billion headquarters renovation project. The Fed defended the project on its website [2]. - Fed's Harker said the inflation target has not been reached, keeping monetary policy tight is important, and there is no urgent need for a rate cut. He also mentioned the impact of tariffs and economic uncertainties [2]. Price Logic - Gold price oscillated during the day, and silver was temporarily blocked at the $40 mark after a sharp rise last week, showing a high - level volatile trend. The extension of the negotiation period and the TACO trading direction did not significantly impact market risk appetite [3]. - From the perspective of positions and fundamentals, COMEX positions declined, and global visible inventories and domestic out - warehouse volumes do not indicate an upward trend. There are three mid - term logics suppressing silver's elasticity, and they are difficult to reverse [3]. Outlook - Weekly COMEX gold is expected to be in the range of [3250, 3450]. COMEX silver faces pressure at the $40 mark, and in extreme cases, if the gold - silver ratio falls to the lower limit of the past two years, COMEX silver may reach $45 [3][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives investment outlooks for individual energy and chemical products, including "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", "oscillating strongly", etc. For example, the outlook for crude oil is "oscillating weakly", and for pure benzene is "oscillating strongly" [17][18]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The energy and chemical market is currently in an oscillating pattern. Crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical factors and US - Russia relations, and the prices of downstream chemical products are influenced by factors such as cost support, supply - demand relationships, and device maintenance [1][2]. - In the short - term, investors can base on the positive or negative basis to try trading strategies of buying strong and selling weak. For example, during the contract roll - over period from late July to early August, this strategy can be considered [2]. - Different chemical products have different price trends and influencing factors. For instance, ethylene glycol rebounds due to low inventory and device maintenance; asphalt shows strong performance due to limited production and inventory reduction; while high - sulfur fuel oil faces downward pressure due to increased supply and weakening demand [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News - China's exports in June increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.1% year - on - year. The trade surplus in June was $115 billion. In the first half of 2025, China's exports were a key driver of economic growth, but this support may weaken in the second half if global trade tensions rise [8]. - As of July 11, the oil tanker capacity of tankers that had been anchored for at least 7 days decreased by 4.6% compared to July 4. Floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region continued to rise, while that in other regions declined [8]. - The Caspian Pipeline's (CPC) crude oil exports in June increased by 8% compared to May, reaching 6.177 million tons, or 1.63 million barrels per day [8]. - The US President threatened to impose severe economic penalties on Russia if it does not end hostilities with Ukraine. If no agreement is reached within 50 days, a 100% tariff may be imposed [9]. - China's imports of Iranian crude oil in June reached the highest level since March, increasing to over 1.7 million barrels per day, compared to 1.1 million barrels per day in May [9]. 3.2 Variety Analysis 3.2.1 Crude Oil - On July 15, crude oil prices fell as the US may not impose sanctions on Russia's oil in the short - term but urged Russia to reach an agreement with Ukraine. The current supply - demand of the crude oil market is gradually loosening, and investors are advised to view oil prices with an oscillating - weakly perspective [7][10]. 3.2.2 LPG - The cost - side support for LPG is weakening, and the fundamental situation of supply - excess remains unchanged. The PG futures may oscillate weakly. The supply of LPG and civil gas is still at a relatively high level in the same historical period, and demand is weak during the off - season [14][16]. 3.2.3 Asphalt - The asphalt futures price is under great downward pressure. OPEC + may increase production in August and September, and the supply of heavy oil is expected to increase. The current price of asphalt is over - valued, and the monthly spread may decline as warehouse receipts increase [11][12]. 3.2.4 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The high - sulfur fuel oil futures price faces downward pressure. OPEC + may continue to increase production, and the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil for power generation is weakening. The supply of heavy oil is increasing, and the three driving factors supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are weakening [12][13]. 3.2.5 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The spread between low - and high - sulfur fuel oils continues to rebound. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the movement of crude oil, but it is facing the situation of increasing supply and falling demand, and may maintain a low - valuation operation [13][15]. 3.2.6 Methanol - The domestic methanol start - up load is decreasing, and the futures price oscillates. The market's expectation of reduced methanol imports has weakened, and the port inventory has increased. The production profit of methanol is still relatively high, and the profit of coastal MTO has been repaired to some extent [28][29]. 3.2.7 Urea - The speculative sentiment for urea is slowing down, and the futures price may be under pressure in the short - term. The supply pressure has been slightly relieved due to temporary device maintenance in high - temperature weather, but overall demand is weak, and the market still faces pressure before inventory reduction [28][29]. 3.2.8 Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol continues to oscillate and consolidate. The port inventory is at a low level, and there are device maintenance plans. The restart of Saudi Arabian devices is not going smoothly, which supports the price [22][23]. 3.2.9 PX - Crude oil is strong, and PX rebounds. In the short - term, the cost - side crude oil is likely to remain at a high level, and the overall PX start - up load in Asia is low. The release of new PTA production capacity is imminent, and the market sentiment is cautiously bullish [17]. 3.2.10 PTA - The cost of PTA is strong, and the price rises. Although the supply of PTA is sufficient next week and downstream polyester factories plan to cut production, the cost - side PX provides strong support, and the decline in PTA prices is expected to be limited [17][18]. 3.2.11 Short - Fiber - The short - fiber processing fee remains stable, and the absolute value fluctuates with raw materials. The inventory pressure of short - fiber factories is small, and the sales volume of short - fiber has increased periodically, indicating that the profitable processing fee can continue [23][24]. 3.2.12 Bottle Chips - The basis of bottle chips drops rapidly, and the supply - demand pattern is dull. The supply of bottle chips will gradually decrease, and the processing fee is expected to find support between 350 - 400 yuan/ton and then move towards 500 - 600 yuan/ton [25][26]. 3.2.13 PP - The short - term driving force for PP is limited, and it oscillates. The commodity market sentiment has been boosted, but the impact on PP is limited. The raw material support is weakening, and the supply side is still under pressure [32][33]. 3.2.14 Plastic - The maintenance of plastic slightly increases, and it oscillates. The commodity market sentiment has an impact on plastic, but it mainly follows the trend. The raw material support is weakening, and the supply side still has pressure [32]. 3.2.15 Pure Benzene - The port inventory of pure benzene is decreasing, and crude oil is strong, so pure benzene oscillates at a high level. In the short - term, there are positive news from downstream industries, and the macro - sentiment is high. In the medium - term, the situation from July to August is favorable, but the high inventory suppresses the rebound [18]. 3.2.16 Styrene - The port supply of styrene is concentrated, and it is strong. The fundamentals of pure benzene have improved, and although there is no strong support for styrene, there is no obvious drag either. The supply - demand of styrene is expected to weaken, but the inventory in the industry is not high, and the port supply is concentrated [20][21]. 3.2.17 PVC - There is a strong expectation but weak reality for PVC, and it oscillates. Macro - level policies boost market sentiment, but the mid - long - term fundamentals are under pressure due to new production capacity, off - season demand, and limited export growth [35]. 3.2.18 Caustic Soda - The spot rebound of caustic soda slows down, and it oscillates. The support comes from positive market sentiment, weak liquid chlorine prices, and low inventory in the caustic soda industry. The pressure comes from the slowdown of spot price increases and pessimistic supply - demand expectations [36][37]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring 3.3.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - The report provides data on inter - period spreads, basis, and inter - variety spreads for various energy and chemical products. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent crude oil is 1.26, with a change of 0.06; the basis of asphalt is 164, with a change of - 40; the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 322, with a change of - 47 [38][39][40]. 3.3.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although the report lists the monitoring of the basis and spreads of various chemical products, it does not provide specific data analysis in the given content. It only mentions the names of products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc. [41][52][64].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual commodities, the ratings are as follows: - Oils and Fats: Oscillating [6] - Protein Meal: Oscillating in the short - term, bullish in the long - term [7] - Corn and Starch: Oscillating and declining [8] - Live Pigs: Oscillating [10] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [11] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating [15] - Cotton: Oscillating [15] - Sugar: Oscillating in the short - term, oscillating and bearish in the long - term [16] - Pulp: Oscillating [17] - Logs: Oscillating and bearish [18] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple agricultural commodities. It points out that the end of the year may see the emergence of La Nina, which will boost the sentiment for long - positions in protein meal. The prices of different agricultural products are affected by various factors such as international trade policies, weather conditions, supply and demand relationships, and macro - economic environments. Different commodities show different trends in the short and long terms [1][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **View**: Yesterday, the market was oscillating and differentiated, with palm oil leading the rise. It is expected to oscillate in the medium - term [6]. - **Logic**: Tensions in US foreign trade and good weather in US soybean - growing areas led to a decline in US soybeans on Friday, while US soybean oil was oscillating and bullish. Domestically, the three major oils were oscillating and differentiated, with palm oil being bullish. Macro - environment factors include the strengthening of the US dollar and the rise of crude oil prices. The USDA July report was relatively neutral. Overseas biodiesel demand for oils is expected to be optimistic, and domestic soybean oil inventory is rising. Palm oil is in the production - increasing season, with expected increases in both production and exports. Domestic rapeseed oil inventory is high, and the import situation needs attention [6]. Protein Meal - **View**: The end of the year may see the emergence of La Nina, boosting market sentiment for long - positions. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term and be bullish in the long - term [7]. - **Logic**: Internationally, US soybeans are growing well, but Sino - US trade frictions affect exports. Brazilian soybean exports are still high. CFTC net long positions are decreasing. Domestically, changes in tariff exemptions have hindered the import of granular meal. Supply pressure dominates the weak spot market, but concerns about Sino - US trade support the futures price. Soybean arrivals are increasing, and downstream replenishment is insufficient. In the long - run, fourth - quarter purchases are slow, and the inventory of breeding sows is increasing, indicating stable or increasing demand for soybean meal [7]. - **Outlook**: Domestic double - meal futures are stronger than US soybeans, and the domestic futures market is stronger than the spot market. The basis is expected to weaken. Oil mills can sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or fix prices at low levels. Unilateral long - positions can be established at around 2900 [2]. Corn and Starch - **View**: Traders are actively selling, and market sentiment is weak. It is expected to oscillate and decline [8]. - **Logic**: Futures prices rebounded after a sharp decline on Friday night. In the spot market, trading is active, and some deep - processing plants in the Northeast and North China have lowered their purchase prices. The cumulative auction of imported corn has a certain turnover rate. In the annual structure, imports are expected to decline, but the supply is supplemented by wheat and imported corn, and the cost of new - season corn is decreasing, resulting in weak market sentiment [9]. Live Pigs - **View**: Normal slaughtering in the middle of the month, with prices fluctuating slightly. It is expected to oscillate [10]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, large pigs are being slaughtered at an accelerated pace, but the average weight has bottomed out and is rising. The planned slaughter volume in July is decreasing, and the supply pressure is temporarily low. In the medium - term, the number of newborn piglets has been increasing, indicating potential growth in the second half of the year. In the long - term, the production capacity is still high. The ratio of pork to feed is increasing, and the weight - reduction trend is blocked. In the short - term, the market is affected by macro - regulation signals, but the sustainability is questionable. In the medium - and long - term, there is supply pressure from sows and weight [10]. - **Outlook**: The expectation of supply - side reform boosts the sentiment of live - pig futures. The industry has completed a small - scale weight - reduction, and the inventory pressure of large farms has been released, but there is still supply pressure in the medium - and long - term [10]. Natural Rubber - **View**: Macro - sentiment supports rubber prices. It is expected to oscillate [11]. - **Logic**: The trading logic of natural rubber follows macro - sentiment. After a previous rally in some commodities, rubber, with relatively low valuation, was favored by funds. Currently, the market is in a strong - expectation atmosphere, and the fundamentals are stable. Supply is limited due to rain in Asian producing areas, and demand from tire enterprises has recovered [14]. Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures market is oscillating. It is expected to oscillate within a range [15]. - **Logic**: After a sharp rally last week, it returned to an oscillating state yesterday, supported by macro - factors and improved trading of butadiene. The fundamentals of butadiene have improved, with increased demand and limited supply, which also boosts the synthetic rubber market [15]. Cotton - **View**: Low inventory versus weak demand, resulting in a stalemate in cotton prices. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [15]. - **Logic**: The USDA July report was bearish, with an increase in the expected global cotton production in the 25/26 season. Demand is in the off - season, with a decline in textile mill operations and an increase in finished - product inventory. The cotton - yarn price spread is narrowing. Current commercial inventory is low, making cotton prices resistant to decline but difficult to rise. In the medium - term, new - crop production is expected to increase, suppressing the upside of the futures price [15]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a reference range of 13500 - 14300 yuan/ton [15]. Sugar - **View**: Inventory is low, but subsequent imports are expected to increase. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term and be bearish in the long - term [16]. - **Logic**: In the long - term, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season, with production increases expected in major producing countries. In the short - term, Brazil's sugar production and cane crushing are lower than last year, and China's sugar sales rate is high, with low industrial inventory, supporting sugar prices. However, Brazil will enter the peak production and export season, and China's imports will increase [16]. - **Outlook**: In the long - run, sugar prices are expected to decline due to expected supply surplus. In the short - run, there are few bullish factors, and domestic sugar prices are expected to oscillate [16]. Pulp - **View**: Macro - factors dominate the trend, and pulp prices are rising within a range. It is expected to oscillate [17]. - **Logic**: Yesterday, pulp futures rose following the macro - environment. The supply and demand are weak, and the upward drive mainly comes from the macro - environment. The US dollar price is declining, overseas pulp mill inventory is high, and downstream paper is in the off - season. The futures price is relatively low, providing some support. In the medium - term, if there is inventory accumulation, pulp prices may rise in a wave - like pattern, but the increase is limited [17]. - **Outlook**: The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 5150 - 5400, and the 01 contract between 5200 - 5500. Bilateral trading within the range is recommended [17]. Logs - **View**: It is difficult to rise or fall, and it is expected to oscillate and be bearish [18]. - **Logic**: The first - month delivery of logs is ongoing, and the inflow of delivery goods into the spot market has put pressure on prices. Both sellers and buyers face increased costs. Although it is the off - season, the overall demand for logs this year is stable, and the inventory - reduction pace is slow. New foreign quotes have increased, but the willingness of domestic traders to buy at the bottom is strong. The supply reduction is expected to weaken, and the spot market is at the bottom - building stage [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For major domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities, with the policy - driven logic strengthening. The probability of incremental domestic policies being implemented in the fourth quarter is higher. Attention should be paid to the impact of breaking the "involution" on the supply - side on assets. Overseas, focus on the progress of tariff frictions and geopolitical risks. In the long - term, the weak - dollar pattern continues. Be vigilant against volatility spikes and pay attention to non - dollar assets. Maintain a strategic allocation of resources such as gold [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market and Commodity Price Movements - **Domestic Financial Markets**: Stock index futures (including CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures) showed slight daily declines, while bond futures (2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year) also generally declined. The US dollar index remained unchanged, and the US dollar intermediate price had a 16 - pip increase. Interest rates such as the 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate and the 10Y Chinese government bond yield had minor fluctuations [2][4]. - **Domestic Commodities**: In the non - ferrous metals sector, lithium carbonate led the increase with a daily increase of 3.42%. Industrial silicon also rose by 3.33%. In the black metals sector, iron ore increased by 0.33%, and coke by 0.36%. In the energy and chemical sector, crude oil increased by 2.65%, and low - sulfur fuel oil by 1.48% [2][4]. - **Overseas Commodities**: In the energy sector, NYMEX WTI crude oil rose by 2.81%, and ICE Brent crude oil by 2.54%. In the precious metals sector, COMEX silver increased by 3.85%. In the non - ferrous metals sector, LME copper decreased by 0.20% [3][4]. - **Hot Industries**: The pharmaceutical industry rose by 1.82%, the comprehensive financial industry by 1.74%, and the non - ferrous metals industry by 1.44%. The real estate industry decreased by 0.25%, the power and public utilities industry by 0.27%, and the building materials industry by 0.34% [3][4]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Situation - **Overseas Macro**: The "reciprocal tariff" rates of the US on most economies have been announced, with most rates being lowered except for Japan and Malaysia, reducing short - term tariff uncertainties. In May, the US wholesale sales and inventory monthly rates were both - 0.3%. In June, the 1 - year inflation expectation of the New York Fed was 3.0%. The employment market has hidden concerns, and the "Big and Beautiful" Act will increase the US deficit by $3.3 trillion in the next 10 years [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: In June, China's export volume increased slightly year - on - year to 5.8%, CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year. The export to the US recovered, and the "anti - involution" policy affected domestic demand - oriented commodities [7]. 3.3 Viewpoints on Various Asset Classes - **Macro**: Overseas stagflation trading has cooled down, and the long - short allocation thinking has diverged. Domestically, there may be moderate reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the fiscal end will implement established policies in the short term [9]. - **Financial**: The sentiment in the stock market has recovered, and the bond market maintains a volatile trend. Stock index futures will continue a moderate upward trend, stock index options should be treated with caution, and bond futures have a weakening sentiment [9]. - **Precious Metals**: The risk appetite has recovered, and precious metals are in short - term adjustment [9]. - **Shipping**: The sentiment has declined, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the increase in the loading rate in June [9]. - **Black Building Materials**: The market sentiment leads, and attention should be paid to the realization of benefits. Steel products, iron ore, coke, coking coal, etc. are all in a volatile state [9]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: The game of reciprocal tariffs and the expectation of domestic policy stimulus have led to a stop in the decline of non - ferrous metals. Most varieties are in a volatile state, with zinc and nickel showing short - term strength but with potential downward risks [9]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: OPEC+ has increased production unexpectedly, and the energy and chemical sector is weakly volatile. Most varieties are in a volatile state, with some showing upward or downward trends [12]. - **Agriculture**: The capital sentiment has quickly pushed up the rubber price. Most agricultural products are in a volatile state, with some showing upward or downward trends [12].