Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to show a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term, and the long - term upward support logic remains unchanged [2] - Silver is expected to gradually shift to a volatile and slightly stronger trend after price stabilization, and the long - term bullish support is still strong [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Gold - During the Spring Festival holiday, the external precious metals rebounded after low - level oscillations, supported by factors such as the differentiation of US economic data, the escalation of the US - Iran geopolitical situation, and changes in US tariff policies. The intraday COMEX gold price fell by nearly 1% after reaching a high, ending the previous four - day consecutive rise, due to factors such as partial profit - taking by investors and a slight rebound in the US dollar index [1] - The short - term gold price is supported by the uncertainty of US tariffs, the repetition of US - Iran negotiations, and the Middle - East geopolitical situation. However, there are also suppressions, such as the differentiation of US economic data and the postponement of the Fed's first rate - cut expectation this year. Key events to focus on include the US - Iran Geneva negotiation on the 26th, the release of January PPI data on the 27th, next week's non - farm payroll data, and Sino - US interactions [2] Silver - The intraday COMEX silver showed a "V - shaped" volatile trend with a gain of over 1%, and SHFE silver also showed a volatile and slightly stronger operation. The macro - driving factors of silver are consistent with those of gold. The impact of tariff policy changes is generally positive, while the postponement of the Fed's rate cut and the possibility of a US visit to China suppress the price. The spot - end driving factors of silver are still positive, with the risk of spot tightness in March remaining. Key events to focus on include the fermentation of spot tightness in March [3] Commodity Index - The comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities on February 24, 2026 includes special indices such as the commodity index, the commodity 20 index, the industrial products index, and the PPI commodity index, with corresponding increases of 1.86%, 2.23%, 1.14%, and 0.67% respectively [45] - The precious metals index on February 24, 2026 had a daily increase of 6.03%, a 5 - day increase of 3.79%, a 1 - month increase of 0.11%, and a year - to - date increase of 15.64% [46]

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2024 202-6/02/ 10-0925 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 Read more English reports on CITIC Futures Insights: https://www.citicfutures.com/Insights 摘要 Abstract News: China's 1-year and 5-year LPR remain unchanged (PBOC). Prices: Most equity ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply and demand expectations of new energy metals are diverging, with lithium carbonate leading the rise. In the medium and short term, the long - term supply and demand expectations of new energy metals are different, and the price trends are diverging, with lithium carbonate being relatively strong. In the long term, the supply of silicon is expected to contract strongly, especially for polysilicon, and the price center may rise; the lithium ore production capacity is still in the rising stage, but the demand expectation is also increasing, and the expected surplus of supply and demand is narrowing, which will push up the price center [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **View**: Supply and demand are both weak, and the silicon price continues to fluctuate [3][6] - **Information Analysis**: - As of February 24, the prices of different grades of industrial silicon in Xinjiang and Yunnan are as follows: 553 Xinjiang is 8700 yuan/ton, 553 Yunnan is 9400 yuan/ton; 421 Xinjiang is 8950 yuan/ton, 421 Yunnan is 9850 yuan/ton [6] - As of February 13, the domestic inventory is 425,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.5%; among them, the market inventory is 187,000 tons, with a month - on - month flat; the factory inventory is 238,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.9% [6] - In January, the industrial silicon output was 320,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.1%; the cumulative production in 2025 was 4.055 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.7% [6] - In December, the industrial silicon export volume was 59,036 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.6% and a year - on - year increase of 2.4%; the cumulative export volume from January to December was 720,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6% [6] - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, the start - up in the southwest dry season has dropped to a very low level, and Sichuan has basically stopped production. A large factory in the northwest reduced production at the end of January and has not resumed production yet, so the short - term supply pressure has been relieved. However, in the long term, the start - up of silicon factories in the northwest is expected to resume, and the start - up in the southwest will also increase during the wet season, so the long - term over - supply pressure of industrial silicon still exists. On the demand side, the inventory consumption pressure of polysilicon is large, some silicon material factories have further shut down for maintenance, and the demand for industrial silicon continues to be weak; the production reduction and price support plan of silicone enterprises continues, and the demand for industrial silicon is also relatively weak; the demand for industrial silicon from the aluminum alloy industry remains stable. Overall, after the large factory reduced production, the supply - demand balance of industrial silicon improved slightly around the Spring Festival, but in the medium and long term, the silicon price is still under pressure, and the industry over - supply pressure still exists [6] - **Outlook**: The supply and demand of industrial silicon are both weak, and the current market sentiment is fluctuating. The silicon price is expected to fluctuate [6] Polysilicon - **View**: The inventory continues to accumulate, and polysilicon is temporarily under pressure [3][6] - **Information Analysis**: - On February 24, the average transaction price of N - type dense material was 57.5 yuan/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0 yuan/kg [6] - On February 24, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 8700 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 110 lots [6] - In December 2025, the total export volume of polysilicon in China was about 1670.41 tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to December 2025 was about 25,115.57 tons. In December 2025, the total import volume of polysilicon in China was about 1872.81 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to December 2025 was about 19,051.01 tons [6] - **Main Logic**: From the perspective of supply fundamentals, with the arrival of the dry season, the polysilicon production capacity in the southwest has gradually reduced, and the current polysilicon output is at a low level, and it is expected to continue to shrink. On the demand side, the demand for polysilicon continues to be weak, the silicon wafer production schedule is at a relatively low level, and the polysilicon inventory continues to accumulate. Overall, the weak demand drags down the polysilicon price trend, but considering that the polysilicon supply may continue to shrink, the supply - demand of polysilicon is expected to tighten, and the price may show a wide - range fluctuation trend [6][8] - **Outlook**: The weak demand drags down the polysilicon price trend, but considering that the polysilicon supply is still shrinking, the polysilicon price is expected to show a wide - range fluctuation trend [8] Lithium Carbonate - **View**: The expiration of the IEEPA tariff triggers the expectation of rush - export, and the lithium carbonate price soars at the opening [3][8] - **Information Analysis**: - On February 24, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 7.52% to 164,120 yuan/ton compared with the previous day; the total open interest of the lithium carbonate contract increased by 32,954 lots to 674,404 lots [8] - On February 24, the morning spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 153,050 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 7500 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, and the evening market price was 154,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 9250 yuan/ton; the morning price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 150,000 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 7500 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, and the evening price was 154,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 9250 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts on that day increased by 96 lots to 38,855 lots [9] - **Main Logic**: Currently, the fundamentals of lithium carbonate are still strong, and the capital sentiment has a great impact on the price. From January to February, the supply remains relatively strong. Although some enterprises have carried out maintenance and production reduction, the overall supply is at a high level; at the same time, the demand performance is good, and downstream enterprises are active in stocking after the price correction. It is expected that the supply - demand will remain in a tight balance from January to February, and the social inventory has decreased. After the Spring Festival, both the supply and demand sides have recovered, and the situation of strong supply and demand continues. At the same time, the repair of capital sentiment also brings upward driving force. In the short term, the current fundamentals of lithium carbonate are strong, the supply - demand is in a tight balance, and after the Spring Festival, the capital sentiment is repaired, and the peak demand season is coming again. It is expected that the price will fluctuate strongly [9] - **Outlook**: The short - term supply - demand shows a tight balance, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [9] Market Monitoring - **Comprehensive Index**: - The commodity 20 index is 2766.04, with an increase of 2.23% - The industrial product index is 2300.06, with an increase of 1.14% - The PPI commodity index is 1405.49, with an increase of 0.67% [46] - **Sector Index**: - The new energy commodity index on February 24, 2026 is 538.23, with a daily increase of 3.69%, a 5 - day increase of 7.45%, a 1 - month increase of 0.08%, and a year - to - date increase of 5.60% [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The basic metals are in a state of shock consolidation, and attention should be paid to the progress of downstream consumption recovery. In the short term, the basic metals are expected to be in a shock state. In the medium term, the risk of the Fed's independence and concerns about supply disruptions remain, and varieties such as copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel are expected to maintain a shock - upward trend [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **Viewpoint**: Trump's tariff was rejected, and copper prices are in high - level shock. - **Analysis**: On February 24, the spot of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper reported a premium of 255 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 275 yuan/ton; the spot TC of 25% copper concentrate was - 51.17 US dollars/dry ton, with a month - on - month increase of 0 US dollars/dry ton. The US court ruled that Trump's tariff was unconstitutional, which supported copper prices. The supply of copper ore is in a tight pattern, and the smelting profit is falling, with the supply of refined copper expected to shrink. The terminal demand is weak, and the social inventory of refined copper is high, which restricts the upward space of copper prices. - **Outlook**: The supply constraints of copper still exist. Although copper prices may be adjusted in the short term, the long - term upward trend remains. It is expected to be shock - upward [6]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The expectation of production cuts is in a game with the reality of oversupply, and the alumina price is in shock operation. - **Analysis**: On February 24, the national weighted index of alumina spot was 2,637.5 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5.9 yuan/ton; the alumina warehouse receipt was 327,928 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 18,053 tons. The macro sentiment amplifies the market fluctuations. The spot average price has dropped significantly compared with the end of last year, and the supply contraction expectation is intensifying. However, the supply contraction is still insufficient, and the cost support is weakening. - **Outlook**: The current supply and demand are in a state of oversupply, but the expectation of production cuts is intensifying. It is expected to maintain a shock state [7]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: The inventory has increased significantly, and the aluminum price is in shock operation. - **Analysis**: On February 24, the domestic electrolytic aluminum spot average price was 23,425 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 236 yuan/ton; the spot premium was - 155 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 35 yuan/ton. The Trump tariff policy has increased uncertainty, and the short - term risk preference has decreased. The domestic production capacity is stable, and the smelting profit is high. The demand is suppressed by high prices, and the inventory is increasing. - **Outlook**: The positive macro expectation and the expectation of tightening supply and demand remain unchanged. It is expected that the aluminum price will maintain a shock - upward trend [8]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: The cost support continues, and the price is in shock operation. - **Analysis**: The price of scrap aluminum is high, and the supply is tight, providing strong cost support. The production start - up rate is at a low level, and the supply may be restricted by policies. The demand is mainly for rigid - need replenishment at low prices. The social inventory has increased. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the cost support is strong, and the price is expected to maintain a shock - upward trend. In the medium term, the cost support logic is strengthened, and the supply and demand are in a tight balance. It is expected to maintain a shock - upward trend [10]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The US tariff policy is fluctuating, and the zinc price is in high - level shock. - **Analysis**: On February 24, the premium of Shanghai 0 zinc to the main contract was 25 yuan/ton, etc. The total inventory of zinc ingots in seven places was 174,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 36,200 tons. The Trump tariff was judged illegal, and the market risk preference increased. The zinc ore processing fee decline has slowed down, and the zinc ingot production has increased. The domestic consumption is entering the peak season, but the terminal demand is weak. - **Outlook**: The supply pressure of zinc ingots has increased, and the terminal demand is weak. The social inventory will continue to accumulate. However, the macro sentiment may improve near the Two Sessions. It is expected that the zinc price will be in a shock state [11]. 3.1.6 Lead - **Viewpoint**: The LME lead inventory has increased significantly, and the lead price is in shock operation. - **Analysis**: On February 24, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,925 yuan/ton, etc. The domestic lead ingot social inventory was 64,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6,900 tons. The spot premium has increased slightly, the supply has decreased slightly, and the demand is in a weak state. - **Outlook**: The production of primary and secondary lead smelters remains high. After the Spring Festival, the start - up rate of lead - acid battery enterprises may gradually recover, but the terminal demand is weak, and the inventory may continue to accumulate. The cost of waste batteries remains high. It is expected that the lead price will be in a shock state [12][13]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **Viewpoint**: The nickel ore quota in Indonesia in 2026 has been determined, and the nickel price is in a strong - upward trend. - **Analysis**: On February 24, the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt was 51,924 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 534 tons; the LME nickel inventory was 287,328 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 378 tons. The approved nickel ore production quota in Indonesia is between 260 million tons and 270 million tons. The supply pressure of nickel remains, and the demand is in the off - season. Indonesia has revised down the nickel ore quota and plans to revise the domestic trade pricing method. - **Outlook**: The current fundamentals of nickel have not improved significantly, and the supply and demand are expected to be loose in February. The LME inventory is at a high level, which suppresses the price. The revision of the nickel ore quota in Indonesia supports the nickel price. It is expected that the nickel price will be in a shock - upward trend [14][15]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: The nickel price is rising in shock, and the stainless - steel futures price is rising. - **Analysis**: On February 24, the stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt inventory was 60,810 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 612 tons. The nickel - iron price is strong, and the cost of stainless steel is supported. The production in January increased slightly, and it is expected to decline significantly in February. The terminal demand is cautious, and the inventory is increasing. - **Outlook**: The production in January increased slightly, but it is expected to decline significantly in February. The downstream demand is weak in the off - season. The fundamentals suppress the price, but the cost support exists. It is expected that the stainless - steel price will be in a shock - upward trend [16]. 3.1.9 Tin - **Viewpoint**: There is no obvious driving force, and the tin price is in shock operation. - **Analysis**: On February 24, the LME tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 15 tons to 7,675 tons; the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 1,428 tons to 11,781 tons. The spot price of 1 tin ingot was 387,250 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 8,600 yuan/ton. The supply of tin is still a key factor affecting the price. The supply in Myanmar has weakened, and the supply in Indonesia is restricted. The demand in the semiconductor, photovoltaic, and new - energy vehicle industries is increasing. - **Outlook**: The supply risk is high, and the inventory is at a low level. It is expected that the tin price will be in a shock - upward trend in the medium and long term [17][18]. 3.2行情监测 3.2.1 Copper - Not provided in the given content 3.2.2 Alumina - Not provided in the given content 3.2.3 Aluminum - Not provided in the given content 3.2.4 Aluminum Alloy - Not provided in the given content 3.2.5 Zinc - Not provided in the given content 3.2.6 Lead - Not provided in the given content 3.2.7 Nickel - Not provided in the given content 3.2.8 Stainless Steel - Not provided in the given content 3.2.9 Tin - Not provided in the given content 3.3中信期货商品指数 - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity 20 index was 2,766.04, with a month - on - month increase of 2.23%; the industrial product index was 2,300.06, with a month - on - month increase of 1.14%; the PPI commodity index was 1,405.49, with a month - on - month increase of 0.67% [144]. - **Plate Index**: The non - ferrous metal index on February 24, 2026, was 2,695.65, with a daily increase of 0.95%, a 5 - day increase of 0.27%, a 1 - month decrease of 3.69%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.36% [145].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Potential [4] - Zinc: Potential [4] - Sugar: On hold [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's monetary policy will remain accommodative in 2026, with the USD index expected to range between 95 - 102. The RMB may show a stable upward trend with limited depreciation space [7]. - For cross - border arbitrage of various commodities, different strategies are recommended based on their respective market conditions, such as long LME copper and short SHFE copper for copper futures, and long LME zinc and short SHFE zinc for zinc futures. For most other commodities, a wait - and - see approach is suggested [4][6][37][51]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals - **Gold**: Last week, the domestic - international price difference and overseas price difference fluctuated. This week, due to the neutral valuation of the domestic - international price difference and the high - level volatility of the RMB exchange rate, it's recommended to hold off on cross - market arbitrage [13]. - **Silver**: Last week, the domestic - international price difference first rose and then fell, and the overseas price difference declined. This week, as the domestic - international price difference has returned to a neutral level and the tightness of overseas silver spot has marginally eased, the strategy of shorting the domestic - international price difference should be exited [19]. - **Platinum**: Last week, the domestic - international price difference significantly narrowed, and the previous high - premium situation in the domestic market was rectified. This week, cross - market arbitrage should be put on hold [25]. - **Palladium**: Last week, the domestic - international price difference significantly narrowed, and the high - premium state was rectified. This week, cross - border arbitrage should be put on hold [31]. 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Last week, the LME cancellation warrant ratio was high, the overseas squeeze risk remained, and the import profit of forward contracts was unlocked. This week, it's recommended to focus on taking a long position in LME copper and a short position in SHFE copper in forward contracts [37]. - **Aluminum**: Last week, domestic aluminum ingot inventories continued to accumulate, while overseas inventories decreased. In the short term, the exchange ratio fluctuated within a range. This week, cross - market arbitrage should be put on hold [42]. - **Zinc**: Last week, zinc ingot exports gradually decreased, the accumulation speed of LME zinc inventory slowed down, and domestic zinc ingot inventory seasonally accumulated. This week, it's recommended to focus on going long on LME zinc and shorting SHFE zinc [51]. - **Lead**: Last week, LME lead inventory significantly accumulated again, and the domestic lead ingot import window closed. This week, cross - market arbitrage of lead ingots should be put on hold [52]. - **Nickel**: Last week, the import window closed, the nickel balance ratio fluctuated, and domestic and foreign inventories remained at relatively high levels. This week, cross - market arbitrage should be put on hold [59]. - **Tin**: Last week, the short - term tin balance ratio fluctuated, the inventories of Shanghai tin and LME tin both increased, and the domestic - international price difference was not significant. This week, cross - market arbitrage should be put on hold [63]. 3.3 Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Last week, the iron ore price spread remained in a narrow range with no significant driving factors. This week, it's recommended to stay on the sidelines [67]. 3.4 Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, the SC - Brent spread fluctuated and rebounded. This week, due to the stability of Middle - East crude oil spot, the large fluctuation of freight rates, and the potential geopolitical risks, it's recommended to wait and see [70]. - **Natural Gas**: Last week, the TFU - HH spread fluctuated widely. This week, it's recommended to reduce positions or exit. In the short term, the trading of overseas gas prices mainly depends on the weather, and in the medium term, the fundamentals may tighten in the US and loosen in Europe, which is negative for the TFU - HH spread [104]. 3.5 Agriculturals - **Soybean**: Last week, the soybean crushing profit fluctuated weakly. The US soybean price was strong due to optimistic export expectations, while the domestic market sentiment was weak after the pre - holiday stockpiling ended. This week, it's recommended to wait and see in the short term [73]. - **Sugar**: Last week, the domestic - international sugar price difference was at a historically high level and continued to widen. This week, it's recommended to wait and see [78]. - **Natural Rubber**: Last week, there were no major changes, and the price spread was within the non - arbitrage range. With the approaching of the global rubber tapping season, supply is expected to increase, but demand remains weak. This week, it's recommended to wait and see [82]. 3.6 Overseas Arbitrage - **COMEX - LME Copper**: Last week, the market's expectation for the Fed to cut interest rates decreased, putting pressure on the copper price spread between COMEX and LME. However, the expectation of US copper tariffs limited the downward space. This week, arbitrage between COMEX and LME copper should be put on hold [89]. - **Brent - Dubai EFS**: Last week, the Brent futures - Dubai swap EFS fluctuated. This week, as the OPEC+ April production policy is undetermined and the Middle - East geopolitical situation is tense, it's recommended to wait and see [94]. - **WTI - Brent**: Last week, the WTI - Brent spread narrowed. This week, although the US refined oil inventory is decreasing, the strengthening of oil freight rates has widened the cross - regional spread, and its sustainability needs further observation. It's recommended to wait and see [100]. - **Natural Gas (TFU - HH)**: See the content under the "Energy" section [104].

2026-02-24 関 货 有 限 公 司 陆地库存趋稳, 浮 仓大幅攀升 -Kpler原油库存数据报告 s Company Limited 图表 9:俄罗斯原油库存 研究员:李云旭 从业资格号 F03141405 投资咨询号 Z0021671 据Kpler数据，2月22日当周，全球全口径（含在途）原油库存相对稳定，全球陆上原油库存小幅回落，但浮仓库存大幅攀升。分地区看，印度 及俄罗斯原油库存增加,中国、中东、欧洲库存回落。 风险提示:Kpler对数据进行回溯调整。 图表 2:全球原油浮仓 图表 1:全球陆上原油库存 十四 2026 - 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 2026 - 2025 · 2024 - 2023 - 2022 3600000 3550000 180000 35000000 150000 345000 120000 3400000 900000 3350000 33000000 资料来源:Kpler 中信期货研 资料来源:Kpler 中信期货研究 图表 3:全球陆地+浮仓原流 图表 4:全球陆地+海上(含 2024 - 2023 - 2022 - 2023 - 20 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Short - term: The current fundamentals of lithium carbonate are strong, with supply and demand in a tight - balance. After the Spring Festival, the capital sentiment is repaired, and the demand peak season is approaching. It is expected that the price will fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to adopt a buy - on - dip strategy [2]. - Medium - term: Attention should be paid to the resumption and commissioning rhythm of domestic and foreign mines. A rapid release of supply may put pressure on prices, and it is expected to fluctuate [2]. - Long - term: After the production capacity reaches its peak, the continued growth of demand may drive the price to strengthen further, and it should still be treated with a bullish - fluctuation mindset [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Quantity and Price Dynamics and Reasons - The opening price of lithium carbonate futures increased with increased positions, and the main contract once rose by more than 8%. The price increase is mainly due to the expected rush of exports caused by the US Supreme Court ruling that Trump's IEEPA tariffs are illegal. After the ruling, Trump announced a new 10% global tariff for 150 days, with an overall 10% reduction compared to before, which may stimulate export demand. Additionally, the current supply - demand fundamentals are strong, the market expects the tight - balance situation to continue after the Spring Festival, and the capital sentiment has been repaired during the Spring Festival [2]. Fundamental Situation - From a fundamental perspective, the current fundamentals of lithium carbonate are still strong, and capital factors have a significant impact on prices. Supply remained relatively strong from January to February. Although some enterprises carried out maintenance and production cuts, the overall supply was at a high level. At the same time, demand was good, and downstream enterprises actively stocked up after the price correction. It is expected that supply and demand will remain in a tight - balance from January to February, and social inventories have decreased. After the Spring Festival, both supply and demand have recovered, and the situation of strong supply and demand continues. The repair of capital sentiment also provides upward momentum [2].

股市⻛格偏向IM，债市维持震荡 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2026-02-24 股指期货：春节外围交易科技事件，⽀撑IM⻛格 股指期权：续持买权防御 国债期货：短期债市维持震荡 股指期货方面，春节外围交易科技事件，支撑IM风格。春节假日期 间，港股偏弱势下行，其中恒科再创2025年8月以来新低；美股三大指 数、富时中国A50震荡收涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数探底回升。主要交易 三大事件，一是美伊谈判出现波折，地缘局势紧张，推高避险和战略商品 价格；二是春晚效应，AI应用、机器人等在春晚高频出现，催化港股新质 生产力板块活跃；三是海外科技事件，谷歌发布更强模型、特斯拉无人车 投产提前，推动美股科技巨头企稳反弹。而春节消费方面，春运人员流动 量、春节档电影总场次预计创历史新高。 假期事件对权益市场的影响中 性偏积极，节后港股开门红，三大指数均高开收涨。A股开市预计也将延 续温和上行，但斜率较1月放缓，核心计价春节消费偏暖与科技事件热 点，风格偏向IM。同时也需注意，节后进入重要会议窗口期，政策看涨期 权即将兑现，"春季躁动"或进入尾声，建议持有IM多单。 股指期 ...

研究员:李云旭 从业资格号 F03141405 投资咨询号 Z0021671 据Kpler数据，2月22日当周，全球全口径（含在途）原油库存相对稳定，全球陆上原油库存小幅回落，但浮仓库存大幅攀升。分地区看，印度 及俄罗斯原油库存增加,中国、中东、欧洲库存回落。 风险提示:Kpler对数据进行回溯调整。 2026-02-24 関 货 有 限 公 司 陆地库存趋稳, 浮 仓大幅攀升 -Kpler原油库存数据报告 s Company Limited 资料来源:Kpler 中信期货研究所 图表 8:欧洲原油库存 图表 2:全球原油浮仓 图表 1:全球陆上原油库存 十四 2026 - 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 2026 - 2025 · 2024 - 2023 - 2022 3600000 3550000 180000 35000000 150000 345000 120000 3400000 900000 3350000 33000000 资料来源:Kpler 中信期货研 资料来源:Kpler 中信期货研究 图表 3:全球陆地+浮仓原流 图表 4:全球陆地+海上(含 2024 - 2023 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The better-than-expected US non-farm payroll data led to a slight decline in platinum and palladium prices. The US dollar index strengthened slightly, putting pressure on platinum and palladium prices. As of February 12, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 544.9 yuan/gram, with a decline of 1.05%; the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 430.05 yuan/gram, with a decline of 1.48% [1]. - In the short term, the market is in a stage of shock consolidation due to factors such as the expected increase in sanctions on Russian platinum group metals in Europe, the repeated geopolitical issues between the US and Iran, and the fluctuation of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. In the long term, the US is still in an interest rate cut channel, and the long - term trend of the weakening of the US dollar credit is conducive to the release of long - term price elasticity. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on platinum and short on palladium when the platinum - palladium ratio falls to a relatively low level [2]. - The supply of palladium is uncertain, with the US investigation result on the import of unforged palladium from Russia yet to be announced and Europe considering a new round of sanctions on Russian - produced palladium. The tight spot market supports the price, and although the long - term supply - demand is tending to be loose, the short - term spot shortage and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations provide clear support for the price [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum - **Main Logic**: The increase in US non - farm employment in January was higher than expected, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%. The strengthening of the US dollar index put pressure on platinum prices. In the short term, multiple factors disturbed the market, and the market was in shock consolidation. In the long term, the US was in an interest rate cut channel, and the weakening of the US dollar credit was conducive to price elasticity. The platinum - palladium ratio fell to a relatively low level this week [2]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand fundamentals are healthy, and the macro - expectations are positive. The medium - and long - term price is expected to be shock - strong [2]. Palladium - **Main Logic**: The supply of palladium is uncertain, with the US investigation on Russian unforged palladium import and European sanctions consideration. The palladium lease rate has been rising, and the tight spot market supports the price. The demand side faces structural pressure. Although the long - term supply - demand is tending to be loose, the short - term spot shortage and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations support the price [3]. - **Outlook**: The spot shortage and the improvement of the macro - environment lead to a medium - and long - term shock - strong price expectation [3]. Commodity Index - **Special Index**: The commodity index was 2402.54, up 0.49%; the commodity 20 index was 2744.04, up 0.53%; the industrial products index was 2300.68, up 0.42%; the PPI commodity index was 1411.54, up 0.29% [48]. Non - ferrous Metals Index - On February 12, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2712.15, with a daily increase of 0.65%, a 5 - day increase of 2.29%, a 1 - month decrease of 4.99%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.97% [49].