Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - On January 13, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 605.05 yuan/gram, with a decline of -3.2%; the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 483.25 yuan/gram, with a decline of -5.22% [3] - Due to concerns about the Fed's independence and rising geopolitical risks, platinum prices are expected to fluctuate widely but trend upward. The supply in South Africa faces risks, while the demand in the platinum market is expanding, and the "rate cut + soft landing" combination will increase price elasticity [3] - Affected by tariff expectations and geopolitical risks, palladium prices are expected to fluctuate widely but trend upward. Although the long - term supply - demand of palladium is loosening, short - term spot shortages and the Fed's rate - cut cycle support the price [3][4] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Platinum Analysis - The main logic is that concerns about the Fed's independence and geopolitical risks have flared up again, and the "233" clause of the US Department of Commerce on critical minerals has no further news. Short - term price fluctuations may intensify. It is recommended to wait for price stabilization and then consider low - buying opportunities [3] - In terms of supply, South Africa, the main supplier of platinum - group metals, still faces risks in power supply and extreme weather. In terms of demand, the platinum market is in a structural expansion stage, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, the hydrogen energy industry as a future growth point, and expanding demand in jewelry and investment [3] - The outlook is that platinum prices are expected to fluctuate upward due to healthy supply - demand fundamentals and positive macro - expectations [3] Palladium Analysis - The main logic is that the market expected the US to impose a 50% high - tariff on palladium on January 10. Palladium is being shipped to the US, intensifying non - US supply shortages. The policy has not been implemented yet, and short - term price fluctuations may intensify. It is recommended to trade cautiously and wait for price stabilization to consider low - buying opportunities [3] - In terms of demand, palladium shows significant structural pressure. Although the long - term supply - demand of palladium is loosening, short - term spot shortages and the Fed's rate - cut cycle support the price [3] - The outlook is that palladium prices are expected to fluctuate upward due to spot shortages and a favorable macro - environment [4] Commodity Index - On January 13, 2026, the comprehensive index was 2425.27, down - 0.30%; the commodity 20 index was 2779.12, down - 0.28%; the industrial products index was 2348.14, down - 0.52% [50] Non - ferrous Metals Index - On January 13, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2809.16, with a daily decline of -1.33%, a 5 - day decline of -1.30%, a 1 - month increase of +8.87%, and a year - to - date increase of +4.59% [52]

Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The expectation of pre - export surges and the anticipation of improved supply - demand dynamics are driving up the prices of base metals. In the short and medium term, the logic of a weak US dollar expectation and concerns about supply disruptions remains unchanged. There are opportunities to buy copper, aluminum, and tin at low prices. In the long term, the potential for incremental stimulus policies in China and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin suggest a positive outlook for their prices [2]. Summary by Variety Copper - **Viewpoint**: Supply disruptions are increasing, and copper prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate strongly. - **Analysis**: The US CPI in December 2026 was in line with expectations. The 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee was set at a record low of $0/ton and $0 cents/pound. In December, China's electrolytic copper production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The Mantoverde copper mine in Chile will go on strike, and the second - phase project of the Mirador copper mine in Ecuador has been postponed. - **Logic**: The Fed may continue its loose policy, which supports copper prices. Copper supply is tightening, and the supply of refined copper is expected to contract. Although demand is currently weak, the long - term supply - demand outlook is optimistic [7][8]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are weak, and alumina prices are under pressure and expected to fluctuate. - **Analysis**: On January 13, the alumina spot price in the north was flat, while the national weighted index and prices in some regions declined. The alumina warehouse receipts increased. - **Logic**: High - cost production capacity has some fluctuations, but the supply reduction is insufficient. The market is in a strong inventory accumulation trend, and the cost support is limited. However, as the valuation is in a low range, price fluctuations may increase [9]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and aluminum prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate strongly. - **Analysis**: On January 13, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased slightly, and the premium increased. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods in major consumption areas increased. The electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts on the SHFE increased. Some enterprises are promoting the "aluminum for copper" standard, and a company is transferring its production capacity. - **Logic**: The US interest - rate cut expectation remains, and China's "two new" policies are continuing. The supply is constrained in the medium term, and although high prices have suppressed demand in the short term, the overall supply - demand outlook is positive [13][14]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Cost support continues, and the price is expected to remain high and fluctuate strongly. - **Analysis**: On January 13, the price of Baotai ADC12 was flat. An Indonesian electrolytic aluminum project has started production. - **Logic**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, providing strong cost support. The supply is constrained by raw material shortages and policy factors, while the demand is expected to improve with the implementation of the automobile trade - in policy. The inventory shows a mixed trend [15][16]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand fundamentals are resilient, and zinc prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate. - **Analysis**: On January 13, the spot premiums of zinc in different regions varied. The SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased slightly. The Mount Isa railway line in Australia is damaged, affecting zinc concentrate supply. - **Logic**: The macro - environment is relatively stable. The zinc ore supply is short - term tight, and the demand is in the off - season. In the short term, zinc prices may remain high, but there is a downward risk in the long term [17][20]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: The sentiment in the non - ferrous sector has cooled, and social inventory has accumulated, leading to a downward trend in lead prices. - **Analysis**: On January 13, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was stable, and the price of SMM 1 lead ingots decreased. The social inventory of lead ingots and the SHFE lead warehouse receipts increased. - **Logic**: The spot premium and the price difference between primary and recycled lead are stable. The supply is increasing as smelters resume production, while the demand is weakening, especially in the electric bicycle sector [22]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: Policy expectations are conflicting with the weak reality, and nickel prices have回调. - **Analysis**: On January 13, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts and LME nickel inventory decreased. SMM predicts a significant increase in the HPM of Indonesian domestic - trade nickel ore in the second half of January. - **Logic**: The supply of nickel is under pressure, and the demand is in the off - season. The policy on Indonesian nickel ore quotas is uncertain, which affects the market outlook [23][24]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: The decline in nickel prices has led to a downward trend in the stainless - steel market. - **Analysis**: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts decreased. The spot price of Foshan Hongwang 304 has a certain premium. The average price of high - nickel pig iron increased, and the HPM of Indonesian domestic - trade nickel ore is expected to rise. - **Logic**: The cost of stainless steel has some support. Although the production in January may increase slightly, the terminal demand is cautious. The inventory may accumulate in the off - season [25]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: Supply constraints are intensifying, and tin prices are expected to be strong. - **Analysis**: On January 13, the LME tin warehouse receipts increased, while the SHFE tin warehouse receipts decreased. The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network 1 tin ingots increased. - **Logic**: Supply disruptions in Myanmar, Indonesia, and Africa are limiting tin production. The demand for tin is increasing in the semiconductor, photovoltaic, and new - energy vehicle sectors, and the low inventory in the industry chain also supports prices [26][27]. Market Index Monitoring - On January 13, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities decreased by 0.30% to 2425.27, the commodity 20 index decreased by 0.28% to 2779.12, and the industrial products index decreased by 0.52% to 2348.14. - The non - ferrous metals index on January 13 was 2809.16, with a daily decline of 1.33%, a 5 - day decline of 1.30%, a 1 - month increase of 8.87%, and a year - to - date increase of 4.59% [150][152].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - On January 13, equity index futures declined while CGB futures advanced. Most commodities moved lower, with metal futures seeing a divergent performance [2][10][12]. - The MIIT emphasized at its meeting to conscientiously resist internal competition and promote win - win outcomes [1][3][35]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On January 13, in equity index futures, IM dropped 1.8% and IC dropped 1.2%; in CGB futures, TL rose 0.3% and T rose 0.1%. Among commodity futures, the top three gainers were Lithium Carbonate (up 7.4% with open interest decreasing 9.2% month - on - month), Silver (up 5.9% with open interest increasing 2.7% month - on - month), and Tin (up 4.1% with open interest falling 15.4% month - on - month). The top three decliners were SCFIS (Europe) (down 5.4% with open interest increasing 4.5% month - on - month), Palladium (down 5.2% with open interest decreasing 0.8% month - on - month), and Poly - Silicon (down 4.4% with open interest remaining unchanged) [10][11][12]. 1.2 Daily Rose - **Benzene**: On January 13, it rose 0.9% to 5,584 yuan per ton. Recent price increases were driven by downstream styrene export deals, firm US - denominated prices and high US - South Korea price spread, geopolitical tensions, and improved macro sentiment. However, the market has weak fundamentals, high inventory, and oversupply, limiting valuation recovery [16][17][19]. - **Ethenylbenzene**: On January 13, it rose 0.3% to 7,028 yuan per ton. The recent strength was due to robust exports, port destocking and tight liquidity, and firm macro sentiment and crude prices. The 1 - month stockbuild expectation has reversed, but there could be corrections if there are unforeseen supply increases or liquidity easing [24][25][26]. 1.3 Daily Dropped - **Poly - Silicon**: On January 13, it fell 4.4% to 49,005 yuan per ton. On the supply side, northern furnace operations changed little, and southwest operations were at a low ebb. On the demand side, it was in the dry season. The revocation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic products might marginally lift polysilicon operating rates in Q1. Overall, industrial silicon remains in a stock - build - up pattern [29][30][32]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - The MIIT held a manufacturing enterprise symposium on January 13, emphasizing that entrepreneurs should focus on main businesses, resist cut - throat competition, and promote win - win outcomes. Also, the G7 finance ministers' plan to reduce rare - earth imports from China was responded to by China's Foreign Ministry, stating China's stance on maintaining global critical mineral supply chain stability [35][36][37]. 2.2 Industry News - CME Group notified on January 12 that it will adjust precious metals margin requirements after the close on January 13, based on a routine assessment of market volatility to ensure adequate collateral coverage [38][39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides individual outlooks for various agricultural products: - **Oils and Fats**: Soybean oil is expected to trade sideways, palm oil is expected to trade sideways with an upward bias, and rapeseed oil is expected to trade sideways with a downward bias [5]. - **Protein Meals**: Soybean meal is expected to trade sideways, and rapeseed meal is expected to trade sideways with a downward bias [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: Expected to trade sideways with an upward bias [13]. - **Hogs**: Expected to trade sideways [15]. - **Natural Rubber**: Expected to trade sideways with an upward bias; 20 - rubber is expected to trade sideways [18]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to trade sideways with an upward bias in the medium - term [20]. - **Cotton**: Expected to trade sideways with an upward bias in the long - term [21]. - **Sugar**: Expected to trade sideways with a downward bias in the medium - to - long - term [21]. - **Pulp**: Expected to trade sideways [23]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Expected to face downward pressure in the second half of the month, with attention to correction risks [24]. - **Logs**: Expected to trade within a range [25]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes multiple agricultural products, considering factors such as policy, supply and demand, weather, and macro - economic conditions. It provides short - term, medium - term, and long - term outlooks for each product, highlighting the complexity of the agricultural market and the need for investors to consider multiple factors when making investment decisions [5][8][13]. 3. Summary by Product Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: USDA report is relatively bearish, and the market should pay attention to macro factors. - **Logic**: The USDA report increased US soybean harvest area and production, decreased exports, and raised ending stocks, contrary to market expectations. Palm oil exports are strong, and domestic soybean auctions and压榨开机 rates are factors to watch. The macro - economic environment, including China's monetary policy and global oil prices, also affects the market [5]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil to trade sideways, palm oil to trade sideways with an upward bias, and rapeseed oil to trade sideways with a downward bias [5]. Protein Meals - **Viewpoint**: Multiple factors coexist, and the market is trading sideways. - **Logic**: The January supply - demand report is bearish for US soybeans, while South American soybeans have a high probability of a bumper harvest. In China, soybean auctions are active, and there are mixed signals in the domestic market, such as inventory and demand [8]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans, domestic soybean meal to trade sideways, and rapeseed meal to trade sideways with a downward bias [9]. Corn/Starch - **Viewpoint**: The market is trading at a high level sideways. - **Logic**: Policy grain releases, weather conditions, and supply - demand fundamentals, including farmers' reluctance to sell and downstream replenishment needs, drive the market [13]. - **Outlook**: Expected to trade sideways with an upward bias [13]. Hogs - **Viewpoint**: Supply and demand are both increasing, and prices are trading sideways. - **Logic**: Short - term supply pressure is not significant, but there may be early sales before the Spring Festival. Medium - term supply is abundant, and long - term supply pressure may ease. Demand is affected by the festival season, and inventory levels are a factor [15]. - **Outlook**: Expected to trade sideways, with short - term weakness and long - term potential for price increases [15]. Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Follows the macro - trading logic. - **Logic**: Rubber prices are driven by macro factors and fund rotation. The fundamental supply is increasing seasonally, and demand is weak after the price increase [18]. - **Outlook**: Expected to trade sideways with an upward bias in the short - term, with attention to potential corrections [18]. Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Trading at a high level sideways. - **Logic**: The medium - term upward logic is based on the expected improvement in butadiene fundamentals. Short - term price increases may be affected by market adjustments [20]. - **Outlook**: Medium - term expected to trade sideways with an upward bias, with short - term pressure [20]. Cotton - **Viewpoint**: The downward trend has paused, and prices rebounded. - **Logic**: Long - term price increase is expected, with short - term adjustments due to profit - taking. The long - term drivers are the expected "tight balance" in 2025/26 and the expected reduction in planting area in 2026 [21]. - **Outlook**: Expected to trade sideways with an upward bias in the long - term, with a strategy of buying on dips [21]. Sugar - **Viewpoint**: Supply is increasing marginally, and prices are under pressure. - **Logic**: The global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus in the new season, especially in major producing countries. Prices are under downward pressure during the northern hemisphere's harvest season [21]. - **Outlook**: Expected to trade sideways with a downward bias in the medium - to - long - term, with a strategy of short - selling on rebounds [21]. Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The market is trading sideways, with attention to increasing bearish factors. - **Logic**: Fundamental factors include both bullish and bearish elements. Bullish factors are rising import costs and high demand, while bearish factors are cost - transfer difficulties and seasonal demand decline. The market is also affected by capital flows [22]. - **Outlook**: Expected to trade sideways, with attention to negative demand feedback in the long - term [22]. Offset Printing Paper - **Viewpoint**: The market is weakening due to commodity corrections. - **Logic**: The market is affected by supply - demand imbalances, with high industry capacity and weak downstream demand. Publishers'提货 is ending, and social demand is light [24]. - **Outlook**: Expected to face downward pressure in the second half of the month, with attention to correction risks [24]. Logs - **Viewpoint**: The market is trading sideways with reduced positions by the main players. - **Logic**: The market is driven by its own fundamentals, with limited macro - economic impact. Supply pressure is expected to ease in January - February, and the market is expected to trade within a range [25]. - **Outlook**: Expected to trade within a range [25].

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Report's Core View - In the short and medium term, due to the repeated policy expectations, the performance of new energy metals is differentiated. Silicon material prices are weak, and attention should be paid to the support on the spot side. Lithium carbonate continues to benefit from the improvement in supply - demand, and lithium prices remain strong. In the long term, the supply - side contraction expectation of silicon is strong, especially for polysilicon, and the price may rise. The lithium carbonate supply - demand surplus is narrowing, and the annual supply - demand inflection point may appear earlier [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Views Industrial Silicon - As of January 12, the spot price of industrial silicon was stable. As of the latest data, the inventory was basically flat, with a slight decrease in market inventory and a slight increase in factory inventory. In December 2025, domestic monthly production decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year, and the cumulative production from January - December decreased year - on - year. In November, exports increased month - on - month and year - on - year, and the cumulative exports from January - November decreased slightly year - on - year. In November, the newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year, and the cumulative installed capacity from January - November increased year - on - year. The export tax rebate for photovoltaic products will be cancelled from April 1, 2026 [7]. - The supply in January is expected to decline slightly. The demand from polysilicon is weak, and some silicon material factories may have further maintenance. The cancellation of the export tax rebate may boost the polysilicon start - up rate in the first quarter. Organic silicon enterprises have cut production, but the start - up rate may adjust according to market demand. The aluminum alloy start - up rate has decreased, and the demand for industrial silicon is limited. Currently, industrial silicon is in a stockpiling pattern, and attention should be paid to whether the demand will be substantially boosted [7]. - The supply of industrial silicon is weak, and the price remains volatile. The demand may have short - term support under the drive of export rush, and attention should be paid to the start - up changes of downstream enterprises [7] Polysilicon - As of the week of January 12, the N - type re - feed material transaction price increased week - on - week. On January 12, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased. In November 2025, the export volume decreased year - on - year, and the cumulative export volume from January - November decreased significantly year - on - year. The import volume also decreased year - on - year. The newly - added domestic photovoltaic installed capacity from January - November 2025 increased year - on - year. The export tax rebate for photovoltaic products will be cancelled from April 1, 2026 [7]. - Recently, the anti - monopoly concern has increased, and the price has dropped significantly. With the arrival of the dry season, the production capacity in the southwest has gradually decreased. The demand has been weakening since November, and the silicon wafer production schedule has declined significantly. However, the cancellation of the export tax rebate may lead to an export rush in the first quarter, which will boost the short - term demand. Overall, the supply - demand situation is still under pressure, and the price may be under pressure [8]. - The weak fundamentals remain unchanged. With the increasing anti - monopoly concern, the polysilicon price may show a volatile and pressured trend [9] Lithium Carbonate - On January 12, the closing price of the main lithium carbonate contract increased by 8.81% compared with the previous day, and the total position decreased. The spot price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate and the average price of spodumene concentrate increased. The number of warehouse receipts increased. On January 9, 30,000 tons of lithium concentrate produced by Hainan Mining's Mali Buguoni lithium mine arrived at Hainan Yangpu Port [9]. - Currently, the demand for lithium carbonate is slightly weakening, but the long - term demand expectation is strong, and the macro sentiment is good. The market is optimistic about the demand in January, and the production schedule is expected to be higher than that in December. Recently, there have been frequent supply disturbances at home and abroad. The cancellation of the export tax rebate for lithium - ion batteries from April may lead to an export rush, which is short - term positive and medium - to - long - term negative for lithium prices. Overall, the fundamentals are slightly weakening, but the far - month expectation is good, and the price is mainly in a strong and volatile state [9]. - The short - term supply - demand is in tight balance, and the price is expected to be strong and volatile [10] 2. Market Monitoring - The report only lists the sub - items of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate, but no specific monitoring content is provided 3. Commodity Index - On January 12, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities, including the special index (such as the commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial product index, and PPI commodity index), all had an increase. The new energy commodity index also increased, with a daily increase of 3.36%, a 5 - day increase of 0.55%, a 1 - month increase of 21.90%, and a year - to - date increase of 7.36% [51][52]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The expectation of pre - export surges and the anticipation of improved supply - demand dynamics are driving up the prices of base metals. In the short and medium term, the logic of weak US dollar expectation and supply disruption concerns remains unchanged. There are opportunities to buy copper, aluminum, and tin at low prices. In the long term, there are expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and due to supply disruptions, the supply - demand situation for copper, aluminum, and tin is expected to tighten, with a positive outlook on their prices [2]. - For different metals: - Copper: Supply disruptions are increasing, and copper prices will continue to trade at high levels [3][8]. - Alumina: The fundamentals are weak, and alumina prices are under pressure and will fluctuate [3][9]. - Aluminum: With an optimistic macro - sentiment, aluminum prices will fluctuate upwards [3][13]. - Aluminum alloy: The price has rebounded as it tracks the aluminum ingot [3][15]. - Zinc: The social inventory is decreasing again, and zinc prices will fluctuate with non - ferrous metals [3][16]. - Lead: The social inventory is accumulating, and lead prices will fluctuate with non - ferrous metals [3][19]. - Nickel: Supported by Indonesia's policy expectations, nickel prices will fluctuate upwards [3][20]. - Stainless steel: As ferronickel prices continue to rise, the stainless - steel futures will run strongly [3][25]. - Tin: With strengthened supply constraints, tin prices will rise further [3][27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **Information analysis**: The US non - farm payrolls in December 2025 were lower than expected. The copper concentrate long - term processing fee for 2026 was set at $0/ton and $0/pound. In December, China's electrolytic copper production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The spot price of 1 electrolytic copper had a large increase in the average premium compared to the previous trading day. There were strikes at a Chilean copper mine, and the second - phase project of a copper mine in Ecuador was postponed [8]. - **Main logic**: Macroeconomic factors suggest that the Fed may continue its loose policy, which supports copper prices. In terms of supply - demand, copper mine supply disruptions are increasing, and the supply is tightening. The smelting supply is expected to shrink, while the demand is currently weak but the long - term supply - demand is expected to tighten [8][9]. - **Outlook**: Copper prices are expected to fluctuate upwards due to supply constraints and disruptions [8][9]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **Information analysis**: On January 12, the spot prices of alumina in various regions mostly declined, and the alumina warehouse receipts increased [9][10]. - **Main logic**: The macro - sentiment amplifies price fluctuations. Fundamentally, the supply contraction is insufficient, the inventory is accumulating, and the cost support is weak. However, due to low valuations, more funds are focusing on this variety, and price fluctuations may increase [10]. - **Outlook**: Alumina prices are expected to fluctuate as the current supply - demand is in surplus but the valuation is low [10]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **Information analysis**: On January 12, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum increased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods in the main consumption areas increased. The warehouse receipts of electrolytic aluminum on the SHFE increased. Some enterprises launched the "aluminum replacing copper" standard implementation work, and a company transferred its aluminum production capacity [13]. - **Main logic**: The macro - outlook is positive with expectations of US interest rate cuts and the implementation of China's "two new" policies. The supply has constraints in the medium term, while the current high prices are suppressing demand, and the inventory is accumulating. Overall, the short - term macro - expectation and supply - demand expectation are positive [13]. - **Outlook**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate upwards in the short term and the price center may rise in the medium term [13][14]. 3.1.4 Aluminum alloy - **Information analysis**: On January 12, the price of a certain type of aluminum alloy increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased. An Indonesian electrolytic aluminum project started production [15]. - **Main logic**: The cost is strongly supported as the supply of scrap aluminum is tight. The supply is restricted by factors such as raw material shortages and profit inversion, and the demand is currently based on rigid procurement but is expected to improve in the medium term. The social inventory has decreased slightly, but the warehouse receipt inventory is accumulating [15]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate upwards in the short and medium term due to strong cost support and relatively stable supply - demand [15]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **Information analysis**: On January 12, the spot premiums of zinc in different regions varied. The SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased slightly. A railway line in Australia was damaged, affecting the zinc concentrate supply [16][17]. - **Main logic**: The macro - outlook is stable with some fluctuations. The zinc ore supply is currently tight, and the smelter's profit is declining. The domestic consumption is in the off - season, and the demand is average. In the short term, the zinc ingot export will continue, and the social inventory may continue to decrease. In the long term, the supply may increase while the demand growth is limited [18]. - **Outlook**: Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate as the production has increased in January, the demand is in the off - season, but the export and the strong non - ferrous metal sector support the price [18]. 3.1.6 Lead - **Information analysis**: On January 12, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased, the price of lead ingots increased, the social inventory of lead ingots increased significantly, and the SHFE lead warehouse receipts increased. The lead consumption was weak, and the inventory accumulated due to the approaching contract delivery [19]. - **Main logic**: In the spot market, the premium decreased, and the original - recycled lead price difference was stable. The supply increased as the recycled lead smelters in Anhui resumed production, although the profit was narrowing. The demand from the electric bicycle sector was weak, while the demand from the automotive battery sector improved. The lead - acid battery enterprise's operating rate was still at a relatively high level compared to previous years [19]. - **Outlook**: Lead prices are expected to fluctuate as the production has recovered, the demand is weakening marginally, the import window is open, but the waste battery cost remains high [19][20]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **Information analysis**: On January 12, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased, and the LME nickel inventory decreased. It is expected that the domestic trade ore price in Indonesia will increase significantly in the second half of January. Indonesia plans to adjust the nickel production quota through RKAB to match the smelter's capacity [20][22][23]. - **Main logic**: The supply pressure remains as the domestic and Indonesian nickel production is high. The demand is in the traditional off - season, and the overall fundamentals are in surplus. The policy of Indonesia's nickel ore quota is uncertain [24]. - **Outlook**: Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate. If the actual quota in Indonesia is low, the surplus expectation in 2026 will decline significantly [24]. 3.1.8 Stainless steel - **Information analysis**: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts decreased. The price of ferronickel increased, and Indonesia plans to adjust the production quota to match the smelter's capacity [25][26]. - **Main logic**: The cost is supported as the ferronickel price has recovered. The production decreased in December and may increase slightly in January. The terminal demand is cautious. The social inventory has not increased significantly, but there may be pressure to accumulate inventory in the off - season [26][27]. - **Outlook**: Stainless - steel prices are expected to fluctuate. The production may increase slightly in January, the demand is weak in the off - season, but the cost support from the ore end exists [26][27]. 3.1.9 Tin - **Information analysis**: On January 12, the LME tin warehouse receipts increased, the SHFE tin warehouse receipts decreased, and the SHFE tin positions increased. The spot price of tin increased significantly [27]. - **Main logic**: Supply is the core concern. There are supply disruptions in Myanmar, Indonesia, and Africa. The supply of tin concentrate is tightening, and the processing fee is low, making it difficult to increase the refined tin production. The demand is expected to increase as the global economy is expected to improve, and the consumption in semiconductor, photovoltaic, and new - energy vehicle sectors is rising [28]. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate upwards as the supply risk is high and the inventory is low [28]. 3.2行情监测 - **Copper, Alumina, Aluminum, Aluminum alloy, Zinc, Lead, Nickel, Stainless steel, Tin**: No specific information provided in the given text, so no summary can be made. 3.3行情监测（商品指数） - The comprehensive index, specialty index, and sector index of CITIC Futures' commodity index all showed an upward trend on January 12, 2026. For example, the commodity 20 index increased by 1.85% to 2786.88, and the non - ferrous metal index increased by 1.86% to 2846.94 on that day [151][152].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core View of the Report - The geopolitical risks continue to support crude oil prices, and the chemical industry is over - valued, so it should be treated with a volatile mindset. The industry may continue to fluctuate strongly, but it is not recommended to chase more [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical factors continue to disrupt, and attention should be paid to risks in Iran. The supply pressure persists, but the geopolitical premium fluctuates. The price of oil will continue to fluctuate under the balance of oversupply and frequent geopolitical disruptions. Short - term focus is on the risk of price surges related to Iranian geopolitics [4][7]. - **Logic**: Expectations of increased sanctions by the US on Russia or Iran fuel supply concerns, and the situation in Iran is highly uncertain. The US - Venezuela crude oil trade may increase, and there may be a potential impact of Venezuelan sanctioned oil on the compliant oil market. Geopolitical prospects in Russia - Ukraine, Iran, and Venezuela are the core factors affecting crude oil supply expectations [7]. - **Outlook**: Volatile. Supply pressure continues, but the geopolitical premium is unstable, so it should be viewed as volatile in the short term [4][7][8]. 3.2 Asphalt - **View**: The asphalt futures price is oscillating in an over - valued range [4]. - **Logic**: OPEC+ will suspend production increases in Q1. The US is cooperating with Venezuela to receive its oil, and partial sanctions on Venezuela are lifted. This supports asphalt costs but may lead to sufficient supply in the long - term. Hainan's asphalt production has increased significantly, and the supply - demand situation is weak with inventory accumulation and reduced demand [9]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating downward. The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued, and its medium - to long - term valuation is expected to decline [9]. 3.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The price of high - sulfur fuel oil futures has declined due to the pressure from Venezuelan heavy oil [4]. - **Logic**: OPEC+ suspends production increases in Q1. Venezuela will transfer 30 - 50 million barrels of oil to the US, increasing heavy - oil supply. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is suppressed by high - level floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region, and its substitution by natural gas and photovoltaic energy [9]. - **Outlook**: Volatile. The expected increase in Venezuelan oil production will put long - term pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil, but short - term support comes from the US - Iran conflict [11]. 3.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The price of low - sulfur fuel oil futures is oscillating upward [4]. - **Logic**: It follows the upward trend of crude oil. There are some supporting factors, but it also faces challenges such as reduced shipping demand, substitution by green energy, and high - sulfur fuel substitution. Its valuation is low and it is expected to follow crude oil price movements [12]. - **Outlook**: Volatile. It is affected by green fuel substitution and limited high - sulfur substitution demand, but its current low valuation means it will fluctuate with crude oil [12]. 3.5 Methanol - **View**: Methanol is expected to be stable with a weakening trend, as inventory pressure is significant and MTO demand is weak [4]. - **Logic**: The domestic supply is relatively abundant, while downstream demand is weak. Port inventory is high, and there are plans for some MTO plants to shut down, which may further weaken demand [28]. - **Outlook**: Weakening in the short term [28]. 3.6 Urea - **View**: The actual trading volume has slowed down, and urea is oscillating and consolidating [4]. - **Logic**: The supply remains at a high level of around 200,000 tons per day, while the procurement from traders and compound fertilizer factories has slowed down, resulting in a lack of trading enthusiasm [29]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating. Without a significant change in fundamentals, the market is closely related to order transactions. It may be stable with a weakening trend in the short term [29]. 3.7 Ethylene Glycol - **View**: The arrival of foreign vessels is concentrated, and inventory tank capacity is tight [4]. - **Logic**: The recent arrival of a large number of vessels has led to a significant increase in inventory, causing the spot basis to weaken and reducing traders' willingness to hold goods [20][22]. - **Outlook**: The price will be range - bound in the short term, and the long - term inventory pressure is still large, so the rebound height is limited [22]. 3.8 PX - **View**: The loosening of polyester demand exerts pressure on upstream raw materials [4]. - **Logic**: International oil prices are rising, and naphtha prices are increasing due to cost factors. Although PTA demand provides some support, the supply from domestic and foreign PX plants is increasing. The short - term PX profit is adjusting downward from a high level [13]. - **Outlook**: The PX price is expected to be range - bound in the short term, and attention should be paid to the support around 7000 - 7100 yuan/ton. The profit decline is limited [13]. 3.9 PTA - **View**: There are concentrated reports of polyester production cuts, putting pressure on the basis and processing fees [4]. - **Logic**: The upstream cost still provides some support, and the PTA supply - demand situation is currently stable. However, the concentrated production cuts in the downstream polyester industry may lead to a weaker basis and limited processing fee space [14]. - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate with costs. In the medium term, consider going long on the TA05 contract on dips, and short - term shorting in the 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton range. Look for positive spreads on TA05 - 09 on dips [15]. 3.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: The price fluctuation has narrowed, and the sales are stable [4]. - **Logic**: The cost of upstream polyester raw materials has slightly declined, and the short - fiber price is range - bound. The downstream sales have improved slightly, and the market demand is stable [23][24]. - **Outlook**: The short - fiber price will follow the movement of upstream raw materials, and the processing fee is under some pressure [24]. 3.11 Bottle Chip - **View**: More plants are under maintenance in January, and profit support is strengthening [4]. - **Logic**: The price of upstream raw materials has slightly declined, and the bottle - chip market price has followed the cost movement. The market trading atmosphere is average, and the profit is expected to recover. The inventory is expected to decline smoothly before the festival, and the processing fee has stronger support [25]. - **Outlook**: The absolute price will fluctuate with raw materials, and the processing fee has stronger support at the bottom [25]. 3.12 Styrene - **View**: Driven by exports and a positive market atmosphere, styrene has been oscillating strongly recently [4]. - **Logic**: Exports are good, with confirmed exports of 48,000 tons in January and 12,000 tons in February. Port inventory has decreased, and market sentiment is positive. Macro and crude oil factors are also positive. The supply - demand situation is favorable in January, but there may be a risk of price correction if there is an unexpected increase in supply [18]. - **Outlook**: If there is no significant increase in supply or major negative news from crude oil, it will remain oscillating strongly in the short term, driven by repeated export news [18]. 3.13 PVC - **View**: There is a short - term "rush to export", which supports PVC [4]. - **Logic**: The export tax rebate for PVC will be cancelled on April 1st, leading to a short - term "rush to export". However, the long - term inventory pressure is large. Domestically, supply elasticity has increased, while overseas, the US Olin VCM plant has restarted. Downstream demand is seasonally weak, and the sustainability of "rush to export" orders is uncertain [37]. - **Outlook**: The short - term "rush to export" supports the price, but the long - term price may face pressure due to the possible poor sustainability of exports and high inventory [38]. 3.14 Caustic Soda - **View**: It has a low valuation and weak expectations, and is operating weakly [4]. - **Logic**: The production remains high, and inventory pressure is large. Demand from the alumina industry is weak, and non - aluminum downstream demand is also poor. Although the price of liquid chlorine limits the decline of caustic soda, the overall supply - demand situation is under pressure [39]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand situation remains under pressure, and the price is expected to be weakly oscillating, with the decline limited by liquid chlorine [39]. 3.15 LLDPE - **View**: Driven by a positive macro sentiment, LLDPE is oscillating upward [33]. - **Logic**: Oil prices are oscillating, and geopolitical factors continue to affect supply expectations. The futures price has rebounded slightly due to macro expectations and positive market sentiment, but the profit of various production methods has slightly recovered, and the downstream demand is in the off - season [33]. - **Outlook**: Volatile in the short term [33]. 3.16 PP - **View**: Boosted by the macro environment but with reduced downstream trading volume, PP is oscillating upward [34]. - **Logic**: Oil prices are oscillating, and geopolitical factors affect supply expectations. The macro environment is positive for PP, but the downstream is in the off - season, and the trading volume has decreased after the price rebound. The short - term maintenance rate has slightly decreased [34]. - **Outlook**: Volatile in the short term [34]. 3.17 PL - **View**: Some downstream plants have restarted, and PL is oscillating upward [35]. - **Logic**: PDH maintenance expectations provide support. Propylene enterprise inventory is controllable, and downstream demand has increased slightly. However, the demand is still limited in the off - season [35]. - **Outlook**: Volatile in the short term [35]. 3.18 Indexes - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index, the commodity 20 index, the industrial products index, and the PPI commodity index all showed an upward trend on January 12, 2026, with increases of 1.57%, 1.85%, 1.27%, and 1.31% respectively [287]. - **Energy Index**: On January 12, 2026, the energy index was 1102.68, with a daily increase of 0.36%, a 5 - day increase of 1.45%, a 1 - month increase of 0.52%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.48% [288].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of gold and silver have risen again with significant trading volume. The resonance of macro and geopolitical risks, along with expectations of liquidity and resource security, has become the main driving force. The trading logic of the impaired independence of the Federal Reserve has been repriced, leading to a continued upward trend in gold prices. Silver prices have accelerated their rise due to tight spot supply and high price elasticity, with significantly amplified short - term fluctuations [1]. - Gold and silver are expected to maintain an overall oscillatory and bullish pattern under the resonance of long - term expectations of loose liquidity, pro - cyclical trading, and concerns about resource security. The central price of gold is expected to continue to rise, with London gold focusing on the range of $4900 - 5000 per ounce. Silver may continue to experience high volatility, with London silver focusing on the range of $90 - 100 per ounce [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Key Information - The Trump administration in the United States has threatened to sue Federal Reserve Chairman Powell for his testimony in Congress last summer. Powell believes this is an excuse to expand the government's influence on the Federal Reserve and monetary policy [2]. - In December, U.S. employment growth slowed more than expected, with job losses in the construction, retail, and manufacturing sectors. However, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%, indicating that the labor market has not deteriorated rapidly [2]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent will host a meeting of more than a dozen senior financial officials on Monday, urging the Group of Seven (G7) and other countries to increase efforts to reduce their dependence on China in the critical minerals sector [2]. 3.2 Price Logic - **Gold**: As the change of the Federal Reserve Chairman approaches, the threat of a subpoena from the Department of Justice to the current chairman has significantly increased the expectation of impaired independence. The market has further strengthened the pricing of long - term policy easing and constraints on the U.S. dollar's credit. Despite the FedWatch indicating a delay in the timing of interest rate cuts this year, the long - term "independence - credit - liquidity" logic dominates the price direction. Coupled with rising geopolitical risks and central bank allocation demand, gold is insensitive to marginal changes in interest rates, and continuous trend - following buying has pushed the price of London gold above $4600 per ounce [3]. - **Silver**: The Section 232 investigation on critical minerals has not been finalized, and expectations of tariffs and resource security have repeatedly disrupted the market. Hoarding demand has continuously squeezed the deliverable and liquid inventories in the United States. Although the London silver lease rate has recently fallen slightly to the 3% - 5% range, the structurally tight pattern remains unchanged. The tight spot supply and financial attributes have jointly amplified the price elasticity. Coupled with the rapid compression of the gold - silver ratio, silver has become the focus of risk - preference and resource - security trading, with its price breaking through $84 per ounce during the day and showing significant trading volume [3]. 3.3 Index Performance - **Characteristic Index**: The commodity index was 2432.53, up 1.57%; the commodity 20 index was 2786.88, up 1.85%; the industrial products index was 2360.48, up 1.27%; the PPI commodity index was 1468.38, up 1.31% [47]. - **Precious Metals Index**: On January 12, 2026, the precious metals index was 4216.32, with a daily increase of 4.96%, a 5 - day increase of 3.89%, a 1 - month increase of 17.76%, and a year - to - date increase of 10.25% [48].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Medium-term outlook: Sideways [5] Core Viewpoints - In the off-season, the fundamentals are lackluster. Before the Spring Festival, continue to monitor the downstream restocking intensity. In January, the resumption of production by steel enterprises is expected to further boost the restocking expectation. The prices of furnace materials are still expected to rise from the low level, but the upside is limited by the steel mills' profits [5]. Summary by Directory Iron Element - Iron ore: Port inventory is continuously accumulating, with supply-side disturbance expectations. The resumption of hot metal production and pre-festival restocking support the ore price, but the high inventory restricts the upside. The supply and demand at both ends in reality remain to be verified, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak, the steel mills' inventory is relatively high, and restocking has slowed down. However, the profits of electric furnaces are acceptable, and the daily consumption is at a high level, supporting the demand. Overall, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the price is expected to fluctuate mainly [1]. Carbon Element - Coke: The cost side of coke has shown signs of stabilization, and the expectation of steel mills' resumption of production still exists. As the mid - and downstream winter restocking gradually begins, and the sharp rise in the futures market may drive the entry of spot - futures and speculative demand for procurement, the supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten, the spot price increase is expected to be implemented, and the futures market is expected to follow the trend of coking coal [2]. - Coking coal: As the New Year approaches, the winter restocking intensity gradually increases, and the behavior of over - importing coking coal from Mongolia has improved. The overall supply pressure will be relieved, the fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and there is still upward momentum in the futures and spot prices [2]. Alloys - Manganese silicon: The pattern of loose supply and demand of manganese silicon continues, the upstream de - stocking pressure is relatively large, and it is difficult to transmit the cost downward. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling pressure from hedging. In the medium term, the futures price is still expected to gradually fall back to the cost valuation level [2]. - Ferrosilicon: Currently, the supply and demand in the ferrosilicon market are both weak, and the fundamental contradictions are relatively limited. In the short term, it is expected that the futures price will mainly follow the trend of the sector [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. From a fundamental perspective, the current supply and demand are still in excess. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. Otherwise, the price will rise [2]. - Soda ash: The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in excess. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term. In the long run, the pattern of oversupply will further intensify, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [2][5]. Steel - The pressure of inventory accumulation is becoming more prominent, but the cost support is relatively strong. The spot market transactions are average. As some steel mills end their maintenance, the hot metal output continues to rise, and the output of rebar and hot - rolled coils continues to increase. The demand is seasonally weakening, and the overall steel inventory has stopped falling and started to rise. The fundamental contradictions are gradually accumulating. However, with the resumption of production by steel mills and winter restocking, the cost side still has support, and the futures market will fluctuate widely [6]. Iron Ore - The overseas mine shipments have decreased month - on - month, and the arrivals are operating at a high level. The supply side has disturbance expectations, and the demand side has increased due to the resumption of production of blast furnaces and the increase in restocking demand. However, the steel mills' inventory accumulation speed is slow. The port inventory continues to accumulate significantly. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [6][7]. Scrap Steel - The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak. The steel mills' inventory is relatively high, and restocking has slowed down. However, the profits of electric furnaces are acceptable, and the daily consumption is at a high level, supporting the demand. The overall fundamental contradictions are not prominent. The leading steel enterprises in East China have announced a price increase, and the spot price is expected to follow suit [8]. Glass - The production and sales have weakened month - on - month, and the processing factories are approaching the holiday. The supply may decline in the long run, but it is difficult to have a large number of cold repairs in the short term. The downstream demand is weak, and the large inventory in the middle - reaches always suppresses the glass valuation. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. Otherwise, the price will rise [12]. Soda Ash - The fundamental situation of oversupply remains unchanged, and there is still pressure on the upper price. The supply and demand fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the industry is still in the stage of clearing at the bottom of the cycle. The downstream demand is showing a downward trend, and the dynamic oversupply expectation is further intensifying. The short - term price increase is mainly driven by market sentiment. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term and decline in the long run [12][14]. Manganese Silicon - The trend of the black sector is relatively warm, but there is still pressure on the upper limit of the futures price. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon remains loose, the upstream de - stocking pressure is large, and it is difficult to transmit the cost downward. In the medium term, the futures price is expected to gradually fall back to the cost valuation level [14][15]. Ferrosilicon - The supply and demand in the market are both weak in the off - season, and it mainly follows the trend of the sector. The fundamental contradictions are relatively limited. In the short term, it is expected that the futures price will follow the trend of the sector, and attention should be paid to the adjustment of prices and the control of production in the main producing areas [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: US economic data shows a cooling trend, and the investigation of Fed Chairman Powell has increased concerns about the Fed's independence. Short - term attention should be paid to factors such as the US CPI data, Supreme Court rulings, and GDP data [10]. - Domestic macro: The domestic macro - environment may continue to improve moderately, with a focus on the investment end. Although the current fundamentals are in a weak off - season, policies are expected to take effect, and inflation data is marginally improving [10]. - Asset views: Recommend long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), and gold at the monthly level. For silver, it is recommended to be neutrally allocated in the short - term and overweight when volatility stabilizes [10]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Asset Price Changes a. Domestic financial assets - Index futures: The prices of沪深300,上证50,中证500, and中证1000 futures all rose on January 12, 2026, with daily increases of 0.83, 0.36, 2.81, and 3.68 respectively [2]. - Treasury bond futures: The 2 - year Treasury bond futures fell slightly, while the 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures rose [2]. - Exchange rates: The US dollar index rose, and the US dollar central parity rate fell [2]. - Interest rates: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate and 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield decreased, while the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield decreased slightly [2]. b. Domestic industries - Industries such as defense and military, computer, and media had relatively large daily and annual increases on January 12, 2026, while industries such as petroleum and petrochemical, real estate, and coal had declines [4]. c. Domestic commodities - Precious metals: Silver had a large daily increase of 11.65% on January 12, 2026, and other precious metals also showed different degrees of increase [5]. - Energy and chemicals: Crude oil rose, while some products such as fuel oil and asphalt had different trends [5]. - Non - ferrous metals: Tin had a significant increase of 6.9%, and other non - ferrous metals also had various changes [5]. - Black building materials: Coke, iron ore, etc. had increases, and some products such as paper pulp had declines [5]. - Agricultural products: Some products such as soybean meal and palm oil had increases, while some products such as rapeseed meal and cotton had declines [5]. d. Overseas commodities - Energy: NYMEX WTI crude oil and ICE Brent crude oil rose, while NYMEX natural gas fell sharply [8]. - Precious metals: COMEX gold and silver both rose [8]. - Non - ferrous metals: LME copper, aluminum, tin, etc. all had increases [8]. - Agricultural products: CBOT soybeans, soybean oil, etc. had different degrees of change [8]. 2. Market Logic and Short - term Judgment of Different Sectors a. Finance - Stock index futures: Market is boosted by dual factors, but continuous upward movement requires waiting. The short - term judgment is oscillatory upward [12]. - Stock index options: Option hedging can increase returns. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [12]. - Treasury bond futures: Long - term sentiment is still weak. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [12]. b. Precious metals - Gold: Driven by expectations of loose liquidity and geopolitical conflicts. The short - term judgment is oscillatory upward [12]. - Silver: Affected by tight supply structure, liquidity sensitivity, and pro - cyclical factors. The short - term judgment is oscillatory upward [12]. c. Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Supported by pre - Spring Festival shipments in the near - term, and the risk of resuming flights should be noted in the long - term. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [12]. d. Metals - Steel products: Inventory is accumulating, and the price has fallen after rising. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [12]. - Iron ore: Market sentiment is strong, and inventory pressure is increasing. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [12]. - Non - ferrous metals: Most non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, and tin are in an oscillatory state, with different influencing factors [12]. e. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Affected by geopolitical factors. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [14]. - Other energy and chemical products: Most products are in an oscillatory state, with different influencing factors such as supply and demand, cost, and policy [14]. f. Agriculture - Most agricultural products are in an oscillatory state, with different influencing factors such as weather, policy, and supply and demand [14].