Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [7] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - environment is warm with the upcoming December Central Economic Work Conference and overseas interest - rate cut expectations. Steel products are in the off - season but continue to reduce inventory, with a firm performance on the futures market. Iron ore is under pressure due to the expected seasonal decline in hot metal. Coal and coke have rebounded from low levels on the futures market, while glass and soda ash are suppressed by oversupply [1][2]. - Overall, the off - season fundamentals have limited highlights. There is a possibility of positive news from the macro and policy fronts, and the futures market may have phased upward opportunities due to improved macro - sentiment [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Hot metal production has decreased significantly, downstream demand has declined, and steel mills are undergoing annual maintenance. Although the profitability rate of steel mills has slightly improved, the release of restocking demand is still slow. Overseas mine shipments have slightly increased month - on - month, with a decrease in Australian shipments, a significant increase in Brazilian shipments, and a slight decrease in non - mainstream shipments. The current arrival volume has decreased month - on - month, and port inventories have continued to accumulate. The rigid demand support is gradually weakening, and the release of restocking demand is slow. With macro expectations ahead of important meetings, short - term ore prices are expected to oscillate. The supply and demand of scrap steel have both decreased, but its cost - effectiveness has recovered after the spot price decline. The profits of electric furnaces are acceptable, and the demand for scrap steel from long - and short - process steel enterprises is still supported, with limited downward space. Scrap steel prices are expected to oscillate [2]. 2. Carbon Element - **Coke**: Coke supply continues to increase, while steel mill开工 has declined seasonally. Coke supply and demand are slightly loose. With the continuous weakening of spot cost support, there are still 1 - 2 rounds of supplementary price cuts expected, but due to the subsequent winter restocking expectations for raw materials, the possibility of multiple consecutive rounds of price cuts is low. The futures market is expected to follow coking coal and oscillate [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The current valuation level of coking coal on the futures market is still low. The low - production state of domestic coal mines will continue, and the subsequent winter restocking expectations of the middle and lower reaches are strong. There is still support at the bottom of the spot price. The near - month contracts may remain oscillating due to delivery, while the far - month contracts are less affected and are expected to oscillate with an upward trend [3]. 3. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The increase in manganese silicon costs supports the price, but the market supply - demand situation remains loose. Further upward movement of the futures price will face spot warehouse receipt selling pressure, and caution is needed regarding the extent of further price increases [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The strong cost trend supports the bottom of the silicon iron price, but the market situation of weak supply and demand continues. Further upward movement of the futures price may face warehouse receipt selling pressure, and caution is needed regarding the upside potential of the main contract futures price [3]. 4. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still expectations of supply disruptions, but the inventories of middle and downstream enterprises are moderately high. Currently, supply and demand are still in an oversupply situation. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, high inventories will always suppress prices, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Otherwise, prices may rise [3][14]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash industry price is close to the cost, with obvious bottom support. Recently, the cold - repair of glass has increased further, but the overall supply and demand are still in an oversupply situation. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the oversupply pattern will intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [3][18]. 5. Individual Product Analysis - **Steel Products**: The demand has declined month - on - month. The overall spot market transactions are average. As the end of the year approaches, steel mill maintenance has increased, and hot metal production has continued to decline. Steel production has decreased from a high level, especially the production of rebar. The funds available for domestic construction sites have weakened month - on - month, and the demand for building materials has weakened significantly. Steel inventories continue to decline, but the current inventory level is still higher than the same period last year. With the weakening demand, the speed of inventory reduction is difficult to accelerate. The third - round and fifth - batch central ecological and environmental protection inspection teams have reported some typical environmental problems in Tianjin and Hebei, but the impact on the production of northern steel mills is limited. The profitability rate of steel mills has improved this week, and it is expected that steel production will not decline significantly in the future. With the upcoming December Central Economic Work Conference and overseas interest - rate cut expectations, the macro - environment is warm, and the futures market has the driving force to rebound from low levels, but the upside space is limited due to poor fundamentals [8]. - **Scrap Steel**: The arrival volume and daily consumption of scrap steel have decreased, and steel mill restocking has slowed down. The supply and demand of scrap steel have both decreased, but its cost - effectiveness has recovered after the spot price decline. The profits of electric furnaces are acceptable, and the demand for scrap steel from long - and short - process steel enterprises is still supported, with limited downward space. Scrap steel prices are expected to oscillate [11]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The futures price of the main contract has oscillated strongly due to the warm trend of the black sector and the significant increase in manganese ore port quotations, which has strengthened the cost support for manganese silicon. The cost of manganese silicon has gradually increased, but the market supply - demand situation remains loose, and caution is needed regarding the extent of further price increases [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price of the main contract has risen due to the strong trend of black chain varieties and the increase in settlement electricity prices in Ningxia and Qinghai, which has strengthened the cost support and production - reduction expectations for silicon iron. The cost trend is strong, but the market situation of weak supply and demand continues. Caution is needed regarding the upside potential of the main contract futures price [21].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-12-05 股市盘⾯缩量，债市情绪悲观 股指期货：盘⾯缩量，压制微盘。 股指期权：结构分化，防御为主。 国债期货：TL年内新低。 股指期货方面，盘面缩量，压制微盘。周四盘面现止跌迹象，主要指 数收红，科创板及创业板领涨，全天来看，市场量能降至1.5万亿的水 平，缩量趋势明显，在此背景之下，近期资金被抽离的小微盘指数表现弱 势，市场向大市值个股集中。同时，股指期货在周三大幅增仓之后，周四 呈明显减仓趋势，显示前期对冲避险的资金有离场的迹象，隐含恐慌情绪 消散。另外，若比较沪深300指数与IF当季年化基差率的走势，近期呈现 负相关，即在反弹之后，期货市场资金更倾向高抛低吸，而非追涨杀跌， 故上攻空间短期有限。 股指期权方面，结构分化，防御为主。周四标的市场整体企稳，金融 期权成交量较前一日小幅收缩。情绪方面，偏度、持仓量PCR等指标边际 信息有限，成交量PCR较周三明显回落，各品种隐波下沉为主，反映期权 市场担忧改善。展望后市，12月市场上行驱动不足，预计震荡分化格局下 隐波易升难降，波动率卖方策略需低仓位谨慎配置，或叠加 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Overall, the macro - environment in the fourth quarter is still friendly to risk assets. It is recommended that investors maintain a balanced allocation, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals, and wait for opportunities to increase positions in stock indices on dips [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overseas and Domestic Macroeconomic Situation - **Overseas Macro**: US "Black Friday" and "Cyber Monday" online sales reached record highs, but consumers preferred daily necessities and more people borrowed short - term debt for shopping. The weak demand dragged down the US ISM manufacturing PMI in November. Dollar liquidity is becoming the main line of major assets in the next quarter, and the market expects the Fed to discuss balance - sheet expansion around December to ease liquidity constraints [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: In October, the profit margin of industrial enterprises continued to be under pressure due to weak domestic demand. However, policy - based financial instruments and special bonds promoted the significant recovery of enterprise investment and recruitment forward - looking indicators. In November, the manufacturing PMI rebounded, and both supply and demand improved marginally. The construction business activity index also increased. The domestic economy maintains a weak and stable pattern, and the guiding role of policies on expectations is strengthening [6]. 3.2 Asset Views - The overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged. It is recommended to maintain long - position opportunities in stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals, and wait for opportunities to increase positions in stock indices on dips [6]. 3.3 View Highlights 3.3.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The trading volume cannot support an upward attack, and the short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to the situation of incremental funds [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The market sentiment is stable, and the volatility is somewhat differentiated. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the liquidity of the options market [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The sentiment at the long end is still weak. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to the implementation of monetary policies [7]. 3.3.2 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold/Silver**: Geopolitical and trade tensions have eased, and precious metals are in a phased adjustment. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the US fundamentals, Fed monetary policies, and the global equity market trend [7]. 3.3.3 Shipping Sector - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is a lack of upward driving force due to loading pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the rate of freight decline in September [7]. 3.3.4 Black Building Materials Sector - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the price fluctuates. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to policy - level dynamics [7]. - **Steel**: The demand is under pressure in the off - season, and the price on the futures market has limited upward momentum. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the issuance progress of special bonds, steel exports, iron - water production, and other factors [7]. - **Coke**: The supply - demand situation is slightly loose, and the price is still under pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply remains at a low level, and coal mines continue to accumulate inventory. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment [7]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: The supply and demand are both weak, and there is limited upward momentum. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to raw material costs and steel tendering [7]. - **Manganese Ferroalloy**: The cost transfer is not smooth, and inventory accumulates. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to cost prices and foreign quotes [7]. - **Glass**: The demand is still weak, and supply needs to be reduced. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to spot sales [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply remains at a low level, and there is still an oversupply. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to soda ash inventory [7]. 3.3.5 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector - **Copper**: The expectation of Fed rate cuts is fluctuating, and the copper price is consolidating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to supply disruptions, domestic policies, Fed policies, and domestic demand recovery [7]. - **Alumina**: The oversupply situation has not improved significantly, and the alumina price continues to be under pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to ore复产 and electrolytic aluminum复产 [7]. - **Aluminum**: The macro - sentiment is fluctuating, and the aluminum price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to macro - risks, supply disruptions, and demand [7]. - **Zinc**: The export window is open, and the zinc price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to macro - risks and zinc ore supply [7]. - **Lead**: The delivery of LME lead has slowed down, and the lead price may gradually stop falling. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to supply disruptions and battery exports [7]. - **Nickel**: There are environmental disturbances in Indonesian MHP production enterprises, and the nickel price fluctuates. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend. Attention should be paid to macro - and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policies, and supply [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: Driven by the rebound of the nickel price, the stainless - steel futures market has recovered. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and demand growth [7]. - **Tin**: The market sentiment has warmed up, and the tin price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to the复产 expectation in Wa State and demand improvement [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The oversupply pressure remains, and the silicon price fluctuates. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to supply - side复产 and policy changes [7]. - **Polysilicon**: Policy expectations are fluctuating, and polysilicon is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to supply - side复产 and domestic photovoltaic policies [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Driven by demand expectations, the lithium price has strengthened again. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [7]. 3.3.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical premium is fluctuating, and the supply pressure continues. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation [9]. - **LPG**: The import cost has rebounded, and the spot support continues. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane [9]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price is recovering towards the spot price after an oversold situation. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to sanctions and supply disruptions [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil futures price is weakly oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend. Attention should be paid to geopolitics and crude oil prices [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price is weakly oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend. Attention should be paid to crude oil prices [9]. - **Methanol**: The expected coastal unloading is high, and the inland supply - demand provides phased support. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to macro - energy and overseas actual shutdown dynamics [9]. - **Urea**: The off - season storage is progressing steadily, and the futures market is oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to enterprise inventory de - stocking and commercial storage progress [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The domestic supply - demand pattern has not significantly weakened, but expectations are suppressing sentiment. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to coal and oil price fluctuations, port inventory rhythm, and device disturbances [9]. - **PX**: The short - term cost guidance is limited, and PX has a strong profit under its independent logic. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to crude oil fluctuations, macro - changes, and US - Asia aromatics blending for oil [9]. - **PTA**: The market lacks new drivers and follows cost fluctuations. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to crude oil fluctuations, macro - changes, and downstream polyester load support [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: The upstream cost provides support, but the off - season demand cannot change the short - fiber game pattern. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to downstream yarn factory purchasing rhythm and season conversion [9]. - **Bottle Chip**: The price volatility has narrowed, and the trading atmosphere has slightly declined. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to bottle - chip enterprise production - reduction target implementation and new device commissioning [9]. - **Propylene**: The spot is strong, and PL is oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to oil prices and the domestic macro - situation [9]. - **PP**: The oil price has rebounded, and PP still needs to pay attention to maintenance changes. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and foreign macro - situations [9]. - **Plastic**: The maintenance support is limited, and plastic is oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and foreign macro - situations [9]. - **Styrene**: The liquidity is slightly tight, and styrene is oscillating strongly. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [9]. - **PVC**: With low valuation and weak expectations, PVC is cautiously weak. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to expectations, costs, and supply [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: The inventory continues to accumulate, and caustic soda is weakly oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend. Attention should be paid to market sentiment, production, and demand [9]. 3.3.7 Agricultural Sector - **Oils and Fats**: The downward pressure is increasing. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [9]. - **Protein Meal**: The discount of South American soybeans is cost - effective, and attention should be paid to Chinese ship - buying. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to weather, domestic demand, macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: The supply - demand game intensifies, and the futures price hits a new high. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to demand, macro - situation, and weather [9]. - **Pigs**: The supply - demand is loose, and the pig price is running weakly. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend. Attention should be paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [9]. - **Natural Rubber**: The downstream buying is light, and the futures market is weak. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to production area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: There is insufficient bullish driving force in the futures market. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to crude oil fluctuations [9]. - **Cotton**: The concentrated listing of new cotton suppresses the short - term price, but the long - term valuation repair is still expected. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to production and demand [9]. - **Sugar**: The downward pressure is increasing marginally. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend. Attention should be paid to imports and Northern Hemisphere production [9]. - **Pulp**: Driven by shutdown news, the pulp price continues to rise but maintains a wide - range oscillation. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to macro - economic changes and US dollar - denominated price fluctuations [9]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: The spot price is stable, and the futures market is oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to production and sales, education policies, and paper mill production dynamics [9]. - **Log**: New Zealand has entered a reduced - shipping stage, and the medium - term supply pressure may ease. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to shipping volume and delivery volume [9].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-12-5 玉米供需博弈加剧，盘面再创新高 油脂：回落压力增大 蛋白粕：南美豆贴水跌出性价比，关注中国买船 玉米/淀粉：供需博弈加剧，盘面再创新高 生猪：供应充足，猪价低位震荡 天然橡胶：下游买盘清淡，盘面表现较弱 合成橡胶：盘面利多驱动不足 棉花：新棉集中上市压制短期高度，远月估值修复仍可期 白糖：下行压力边际增大 纸浆：纸浆延续上涨，现货转强明显 双胶纸：现货偏稳，盘面震荡 原木：新西兰进入减运阶段，中期供应压力或有缓解 风险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 【异动品种】 ⽟⽶观点：供需博弈加剧，盘⾯再创新⾼ 逻辑：今日国内玉米价格各地走势不一，华北深加工依旧偏弱运行；其余 地区价格持续上涨。近期，玉米期现货表现强势，支撑价格强势的核心指 标是北方港口库存低位运行。政策托底、优粮紧缺与需求补库形成三重支 撑，目前市场流动性较好，这一趋势暂时维持。1)华北粮质偏差毒素偏 高，本地粮无法大量流入饲用，导致各地饲用企业纷纷采购东北订单。2) 西北区域由于玉米开秤后价格一路走高，导致贸易商成本偏高，西北粮持 续与销区倒 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-12-05 宏观预期乐观+供应扰动担忧，有色大幅 走高 有⾊观点：宏观预期乐观+供应扰动担忧，有⾊⼤幅⾛⾼ 交易逻辑：9月美国零售数据超预期回落，美联储11月经济褐皮书暗示经 济走弱，美联储降息预期升温，整体上看，宏观面预期偏正面。原料端延 续偏紧局面，并逐步往冶炼端传导，铜和锡再度出现供应扰动担忧。终端 略偏弱，11月初汽车销售增速放缓，11-12月空调排产降幅扩大，2026年 1-2月排产预计改善，基本金属现实供需略改善，预期偏紧。整体来看， 中短期，宏观面预期正面+供应扰动担忧，基本金属本周价格大幅上涨 后，消费有受到一定抑制，这可能会限制价格进一步上行高度，可谨慎关 注铜铝锡低吸做多机会；长期，国内潜在增量刺激政策预期仍在，并且铜 铝锡供应扰动问题仍在，供需仍有趋紧预期，看好铜铝锡价格走势。 铜观点：LME注销仓单提升，铜价震荡偏强。 氧化铝观点：过剩状态未有明显改善，氧化铝价继续承压。 铝观点：宏观情绪反复，铝价震荡回升。 铝合⾦观点：仓单延续回升，盘⾯⾼位震荡。 锌观点：社会库存下降，锌价短期反弹。 铅观点：社 ...

12月4日,国债期货盘中集体下跌,截至收盘,T、TF、TS、TL主力合约分别下跌0.35%、0.24%、0.05%、1.04%。同 时，现券端表现也偏弱,25特6利率日内上行4.0BP来到2.2760%,5年、7年、10年国债活跃券利率日内上行幅度也超 2BP。 近期国内债市表现持续偏弱的原因在于: 1、政策预期扰动 (1)中信期货 CITIC Futures 异动点评:超长端调整带动债市走弱 | 中信期货研究所 固定收益组 | | 投资咨询业务资格: | | --- | --- | --- | | 研究员 | | 证监许可【2012】669号 | | 程小庆 | 张陆 | 2025年12月4日 甘青 | | 邮箱: chengxiaoqing@citicsf.com 邮箱: zhanglu2@citicsf.com | | 邮箱: ganqing@citicsf.com | | 从业资格号:F3083989 | 从业资格号:F03105230 | 从业资格号:F03124127 | | 投资咨询号:Z0018635 | 投资咨询号: Z0021341 | 投资咨询号: Z0023461 | 事件: 一方面, ...

Report Title - "图说金融(20251204):不宜过度押注人民币单边升值行情" [1] Core View - It is not advisable to overly bet on the unilateral appreciation of the RMB [1] Key Points - In the past three trading days, the central bank set the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar at 7.0794, 7.0754, and 7.0733, consistently above the spot exchange - rate market price, and the adjustment intensity of the counter - cyclical factor (in the depreciation direction) increased continuously. The spread between the two widened from - 18bps on November 28th to - 164bps on December 4th [2] - This signal may indicate that the central bank is releasing signals of "stabilizing the exchange rate" and guiding two - way exchange - rate fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the continuation of the adjustment direction and intensity of the central bank's counter - cyclical factor in the future [2]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-12-04 股债延续弱势 股指期货：午后跌势加速，涨价链红利避险。 股指期权：⻛偏边际收敛，短线加强防御。 国债期货：超⻓端持续偏弱。 股指期货方面，午后跌势加速，涨价链红利避险。周三盘面延续跌 势，其中午后跌幅加大，其中交运、煤炭、油气等偏向价值及高股息的板 块抗跌，传媒、计算机、军工领跌。近期价值与成长相对强弱再次出现变 化，其中有几个触发因素，其一，近期市场针对日本加息的关注度提升， 并担心套息交易强平影响全球股市流动性，故利率敏感品种表现相对弱 势，其二，历史上12月有比较鲜明的季节性特征，其中价值风格多数年份 占优，年尾机构资金倾向防御配置并锁定年内利润，其三，量能无法扩张 背景下，形成了大盘分流小盘流动性的特征，小微盘流动性边际恶化。综 上短期配置推荐以高股息、涨价链为主，红利+IM的配置转向红利+IC的配 置。 股指期权方面，风偏边际收敛，短线加强防御。市场跳空补缺的过程 中上行遇阻，周三各品种期权标的全线收跌，金融期权整体成交量较前一 日明显回升。情绪指标方面，偏度维持高位、持仓量PCR下降为主，市场 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-12-04 对俄罗斯供应担忧重燃，能化延续震荡 整理 能源化⼯组研究团队 研究员： 原油期货价格近期延续震荡整理态势，地缘尚未看到完全消退的迹 象。央视新闻报道，俄美会谈未达成这种方案，乌克兰也在不停的袭击俄 罗斯的石油基础设施。过去一周，四艘俄罗斯油轮遭到袭击，俄罗斯表示 再发生类似事件将考虑直接袭击资助乌克兰的国家的商船。市场也在密切 关注CPC石油码头被袭，彭博报道，可能3天内就会逐步恢复该码头原油的 正常装载，当前黑海俄罗斯港口的保险费出现了大幅飙升。CPC码头是哈 萨克斯坦原油重要的出口渠道，日均出口量高达180万桶。 板块逻辑： 化工跟随原油延续震荡整理态势。美国炼厂开工率快速回升，成品油 逐步累库，随着近期汽油裂解价差的回落，芳烃调油的逻辑弱化，芳烃的 上行动力略显不足，芳烃端尤其是PX对2026年太过乐观的预期可能导致未 来一段时间该品种的交易难度较大。烯烃的供给压力也从未减缓，资金换 月因素带来短暂反弹，后期也仍将偏弱运行。 原油：地缘溢价摇摆，供应压力延续 沥青：沥青期价超跌后向现货修复 高硫燃油：燃 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The new energy metals market is characterized by tight warehouse receipts, with polysilicon leading the rise. Lithium carbonate supply and demand both increase, maintaining a tight pattern. Industrial silicon and polysilicon supply - demand tend to loosen, but low polysilicon warehouse receipts strongly support the near - term. In the short - to - medium term, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's restrictions on lithium carbonate positions and increased intraday flat - today handling fees negatively affected investor sentiment. After the short - term shock, lithium carbonate entered a shock consolidation phase, while polysilicon with tight warehouse receipts was relatively strong. In the long term, there is a strong expectation of supply contraction in the silicon industry, especially for polysilicon, whose price center may rise. Lithium ore production capacity is still increasing, but demand expectations are also rising, and the expected surplus in supply and demand is narrowing, so the long - term supply - demand trend of lithium carbonate needs to be re - examined, and the annual supply - demand inflection point may appear earlier [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industrial Silicon Information Analysis - According to SMM data, the spot prices of oxygen - passing 553 in East China and 421 in East China are 9500 yuan/ton and 9800 yuan/ton respectively, remaining stable. The latest domestic inventory of industrial silicon is 448,400 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.04%. As of November 2025, the monthly domestic production of industrial silicon is 402,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. From January to November, the cumulative production is 3.871 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. In October, industrial silicon exports were 45,073 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 35.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 30.8%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export is 607,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%. In October 2025, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity is 12.6GW, a month - on - month increase of 30.43% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.3% [6]. Main Logic - On the supply side, as the dry season approaches in the southwest, production and operation rates declined rapidly in November, and most southwest silicon plants entered shutdown maintenance. In December, southwest supply is expected to decline slightly, while northwest supply fluctuates slightly. On the demand side, in November, the dry - season production cut in the southwest polysilicon industry led to a decline in demand for industrial silicon. If the organic silicon industry implements production cuts in December, demand will also decline, and the demand for aluminum alloy has limited growth. Industrial silicon inventory still faces accumulation pressure and remains at a high level [6]. Outlook - If the organic silicon industry cuts production, the demand for industrial silicon will weaken further, and the inventory accumulation pressure may increase. However, short - term market sentiment is volatile, and after the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts, the quantity is currently low, so the price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate [6]. 2. Polysilicon Information Analysis - According to the Silicon Industry Association, the transaction price range of N - type re - feedstock is 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, remaining the same week - on - week. The latest number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 1550 lots, unchanged from the previous value. In October, China's polysilicon exports were about 1547.8 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 58%. From January to October 2025, the total exports were 20,215 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 33%. In October, imports were about 1446 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 39.1%. From January to October 2025, imports were 16,123 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 52.26%. From January to October 2025, the newly installed domestic photovoltaic capacity was 252.87GW, a year - on - year increase of 39.5% [6][7]. Main Logic - On the supply side, as the dry season arrives, the polysilicon production capacity in the southwest gradually decreases, and the production in November dropped below 120,000 tons. In the medium - to - long term, the constraints of the anti - involution policy on polysilicon supply need to be monitored. On the demand side, the photovoltaic installation growth rate was significantly high from January to May, but it overdrafted the second - half - year demand. Since June, the monthly installation volume has declined, and in November, the demand for polysilicon gradually weakened. Overall, although the demand for polysilicon is declining marginally, the supply is also shrinking during the dry season, and there is still an expectation of anti - involution policy, so the price is expected to fluctuate widely [10]. Outlook - The anti - involution policy can significantly boost the polysilicon price, but the actual demand is weak, so the price is expected to fluctuate widely [10]. 3. Lithium Carbonate Information Analysis - On December 3, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract (LC2605) decreased by 3% to 93,660 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, and the total open interest decreased by 15,040 lots to 1,063,867 lots. The spot price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 94,350 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 91,900 yuan/ton. The average price of spodumene concentrate index (CIF China) was 1180 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 660 lots to 9652 lots. In November 2025, Chile exported 18,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month decrease of 28%. From January to November 2025, Chile exported a total of 207,400 tons of lithium carbonate, a year - on - year decrease of 6%. In November 2025, Chile exported 10,132 tons of lithium sulfate, all to China, a month - on - month increase of 493%. From January to November 2025, the total export of lithium sulfate was 82,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 33% [10][11]. Main Logic - Currently, the market has strong supply and demand, and there are differences in the production plan for December, but the inventory is still being depleted. The resumption of production at Jiaxiaowo is being hyped again, which may cause price fluctuations. On the supply side, the domestic monthly production of lithium carbonate continued to rise in November, with a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 49%. It is expected to remain strong in December. On the demand side, the apparent demand is good, and the production plan in the off - season in December only decreased slightly. The social inventory continues to be depleted, and it is expected to continue in December. If Jiaxiaowo can resume production soon, the supply - demand situation may turn loose in late December [12]. Outlook - In the short term, the supply - demand shows a tight balance, but the sentiment has cooled down, so the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [12]. 4. Market Monitoring - Not provided in the content 5. Commodity Indexes - On December 3, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities was 2270.14, a decrease of 0.22%. The Commodity 20 Index was 2587.91, a decrease of 0.13%. The industrial products index was 2219.45, a decrease of 0.41%. The new energy commodity index on December 3, 2025, was 448.05, with a daily decline of 0.96%, a decline of 0.47% in the past 5 days, an increase of 9.22% in the past month, and an increase of 8.65% since the beginning of the year [53][55].