Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Oscillating [7] - Polysilicon: Oscillating [8] - Lithium carbonate: Oscillating and bullish [12] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Central Financial Conference emphasizes phased elimination of outdated production capacity, strengthening investors' expectations of supply contraction in the silicon market. Meanwhile, disruptions in domestic lithium supply, with major lithium mines in Jiangxi halting production, have increased the risk of supply disruptions and driven up lithium prices. In the short - to - medium term, expectations of supply contraction and rising costs support the prices of new energy metals. In the long term, if there is no substantial supply contraction or significant improvement in demand, silicon prices may decline, and high growth in lithium carbonate supply will limit the upside of lithium prices [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: As of August 11, the spot price of industrial silicon fluctuated. The latest domestic inventory was 439,900 tons, a 0.9% decrease from the previous period. The monthly output in July was 338,000 tons, a 3.2% increase from the previous month and a 30.6% decrease from the same period last year. From January to July, the cumulative production was 2.21 million tons, a 20% decrease from the same period last year. In June, the export volume was 68,323 tons, a 22.8% increase from the previous month and an 11.6% increase from the same period last year. From January to June, the cumulative export volume was 340,705 tons, a 6.6% decrease from the same period last year [7] - **Main Logic**: The supply of industrial silicon continues to recover. In August, the supply pressure may further increase. Demand shows some improvement, but the increase in demand from the aluminum alloy sector is limited. With the continuous recovery of supply, social inventory and futures warehouse receipts are expected to further accumulate [7] - **Outlook**: In the short term, silicon prices will continue to oscillate due to macro - sentiment and coal prices. The resumption of production by large enterprises will be crucial, and concentrated resumptions may further suppress prices [8] 2. Polysilicon - **Price and Trade**: The成交 price range of N - type re - feedstock was 45,000 - 49,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 47,200 yuan/ton, a 0.21% increase from the previous week. The latest polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 4,700 lots, an increase of 1,080 lots from the previous value. In June, the export volume was about 2,222.65 tons, a 5.96% increase from the previous month and a 39.67% decrease from the same period last year. From January to June, the export volume was 11,389.98 tons, a 7.23% decrease from the same period last year. In June, the import volume was about 1,112.69 tons, a 40.3% increase from the previous month. From January to June, the import volume was 11,209.78 tons, a 47.59% decrease from the same period last year [8] - **Main Logic**: Macroeconomic factors and rising coal prices have led to wide - range fluctuations in polysilicon prices. Supply is expected to increase in August. In the long term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether anti - cut - throat competition policies will restrict supply. Demand may weaken in the second half of the year due to the high growth in the first half [11] - **Outlook**: Anti - cut - throat competition policies have significantly boosted polysilicon prices. The implementation of policies needs to be monitored, and if policy expectations fade, prices may reverse [12] 3. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Market**: On August 8, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 5.25% to 81,000 yuan, hitting the daily limit. The total open interest increased by 1,676 lots to 783,699 lots. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2,600 yuan to 74,500 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2,500 yuan to 72,300 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate was 910 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 77,300 yuan/ton of lithium carbonate. The warehouse receipts increased by 560 tons to 19,389 tons [12] - **Main Logic**: The production cut at Ningde Times' Jiaxiawo Mine has become the focus of market speculation. Fundamentally, production has rebounded, and the mine's shutdown will reduce weekly ore supply by over 2,000 tons of LCE. Demand is stable, and social inventory is slightly increasing. In the future, a significant supply - demand gap may emerge, but high prices may stimulate supply [12] - **Outlook**: The supply - demand gap caused by the shutdown is expected to keep prices oscillating and bullish [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The outlook for stock index futures is "oscillating with a bullish bias", for stock index options is "oscillating", and for treasury bond futures is "oscillating with a bearish bias" [6][7] 2. Core Views of the Report - Stock index futures present expanding growth opportunities, with a suggestion to over - allocate small - cap growth styles and hold IM. Stock index options should adopt an offensive strategy, switching to a bull spread portfolio. Treasury bond futures remain under pressure and require caution [6][7][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - The basis of IF, IH, IC, IM's current - month contracts are - 6.51 points, - 1.50 points, - 23.56 points, - 18.34 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of 1.66 points, 2.68 points, 0.54 points, 9.59 points. The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts of IF, IH, IC, IM are 11.2 points, - 1.0 point, 69.4 points, 74.4 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of - 2.4 points, - 0.6 point, - 3.0 points, - 0.8 point. The total positions of IF, IH, IC, IM change by 14212 lots, 6800 lots, 9202 lots, 25544 lots. - The market remained strong on Monday, with the ChiNext Index and the Science and Technology Innovation 100 Index rising nearly 2%. The market volume approached 1.9 trillion. The new energy and computer sectors led the gains. The market focus is on the growth area, showing signs of partial spread, and the trend of capital reallocation is clear. It is recommended to over - allocate small - cap growth styles, and IM is preferred among stock index futures. Potential observation windows are the earnings season in August and the parade in early September [6] 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - The market turnover increased by 40.41%, and the PCR of the CSI 1000 stock index option positions increased by 6.15%. The implied volatility of the CSI 1000 stock index option increased significantly. The market trading sentiment is active, and call options are entering the market. It is recommended to switch to a bull spread portfolio [6] 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - The trading volume of T, TF, TS, TL's current - quarter contracts are 76606 lots, 56309 lots, 34103 lots, 111356 lots respectively, with a one - day change of 17352 lots, 7436 lots, 7715 lots, 22612 lots. The positions are 157180 lots, 108276 lots, 78794 lots, 92576 lots respectively, with a one - day change of - 8769 lots, - 3629 lots, - 3287 lots, - 1193 lots. The spreads between the current - quarter and next - quarter contracts of T, TF, TS, TL are 0.105 yuan, - 0.045 yuan, - 0.038 yuan, 0.430 yuan respectively, with a one - day change of 0, 0.010 yuan, 0.014 yuan, 0.060 yuan. The cross - variety spreads of TF*2 - T, TS*2 - TF, TS*4 - T, T*3 - TL's current - quarter contracts are 102.975 yuan, 98.993 yuan, 300.961 yuan, 206.885 yuan respectively, with a one - day change of - 0.065 yuan, 0.065 yuan, 0.065 yuan, 0.285 yuan. The basis of T, TF, TS, TL's current - quarter contracts are 0.001 yuan, 0.020 yuan, 0.019 yuan, 0.150 yuan respectively, with a one - day change of - 0.039 yuan, - 0.033 yuan, 0.002 yuan, - 0.063 yuan. - The central bank conducted 1120 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with 5448 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing. Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The rise in risk appetite and the strengthening of commodities may pressure the bond market. The tightening of the capital market also had a negative impact on the bond market. Although the bond market has shown some recovery, the bullish sentiment is unstable, and policy factors may cause significant disturbances. Trend strategy: be cautiously bearish. Hedging strategy: focus on short - hedging at low basis levels. Basis strategy: the arbitrage space of the main contracts may be limited. Curve strategy: focus on steepening the yield curve [7][8][9] 3.2 Economic Calendar - The calendar includes economic indicators such as China's July M2 money supply annual rate, new RMB loans from the beginning of the year to July, and social financing scale from the beginning of the year to July, as well as the US July CPI annual rate and PPI annual rate, and China's July total retail sales of consumer goods annual rate [10] 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - In the field of artificial intelligence and agriculture, a research team proposed the concept of crop - robot collaborative design, developed an intelligent breeding robot, and established an "intelligent robot breeding factory", which is expected to break through the bottleneck of soybean hybrid breeding. - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration solicited public opinions on the implementation regulations of the Value - Added Tax Law. - The Central Government Bond Registration and Clearing Co., Ltd. simplified the investment process for overseas central bank - type institutions. - Hangzhou solicited public opinions on a draft regulation to promote the development of the embodied intelligent robot industry, including infrastructure planning, core technology direction, and platform construction [11][12][13]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The rise in US inflation in Q3 is in line with expectations. Under the dual pressure of deteriorating non - farm data and personnel changes, some Fed voting members have turned significantly dovish, and the moderate rise in inflation has limited interference with the interest - rate cut expectations. - The July non - farm data is an important turning point for market sentiment. The dominant logic is shifting from "TACO trading + US fundamental resilience + convergence of interest - rate cut expectations" to "verification of weakening US fundamentals + expansion of interest - rate cut expectations". The Fed's leadership change may bring a more dovish long - term path and a re - evaluation of the Fed's independence. - The report maintains a bullish view on gold. It is expected that the upward trend of spot gold will be moderate below $3500, and the upward momentum may increase after breaking through this level. The movement of silver is following that of gold again, with obvious resistance at the $40 mark, and a breakthrough requires the cooperation of gold [1][3]. 3. Summary by Section Key Information - US Treasury Secretary Besent stated that President Trump's tariff policy aims to bring manufacturing back to the US, and relevant trade work is expected to be basically completed by the end of October. He also hopes that the next Fed Chairman will gain market trust and have "forward - looking thinking". - China National Rare Earth Group issued a statement clarifying that it has never cooperated, negotiated, or planned with relevant institutions or units regarding the so - called "rare - earth RMB stablecoin". The information was maliciously fabricated by lawbreakers. - The short positions in US small - cap stocks have reached the highest level since 2017. The notional value of non - commercial short contracts for the Russell 2000 index futures has exceeded $16 billion this month, and this position has doubled since May and further increased after the latest weak employment data in the US [2]. Price Logic - The decline in precious metal prices yesterday was due to two factors. Firstly, the US clarified the rumor of imposing tariffs on gold last Friday night, and the price difference between COMEX and LBMA gold narrowed significantly, weakening the sentiment in the US market. Secondly, the expected rise in the US CPI in July, with the market consensus expecting a 0.31% month - on - month increase and about 3.1% year - on - year increase in core CPI, and the simultaneous rise of the US dollar index, brought short - term downward pressure on gold prices [3]. Outlook - The expected trading range for London gold this week is between $3340 and $3500 per ounce, and for London silver, it is between $37 and $40 per ounce [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the energy and chemical industry is a continued pattern of consolidation, with potential disruptions from raw materials. Most of the individual product ratings are "oscillating," with some "oscillating weakly" and none with a strong positive or negative outlook [3][7][11] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical chain currently has few contradictions and continues to consolidate. After experiencing the largest weekly decline since late June, crude oil futures prices stabilized slightly on Monday. The chemical chain as a whole continued to oscillate, with coal prices rising and crude oil showing signs of short - term stabilization after seven consecutive days of decline. European natural gas futures also rose due to high - temperature weather increasing power - generation demand [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - Crude oil prices stabilized slightly after a significant weekly decline. Global crude oil inventories increased on a weekly basis, with a significant drop in Indian on - shore inventories and a change in India's import rhythm. The chemical chain showed an overall oscillating trend, with some products experiencing inventory changes and price fluctuations [1] 3.2 Individual Product Analysis - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical concerns have eased, but supply pressure remains. The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the focus is on the implementation of US sanctions against Russia [7] - **Asphalt**: It has broken through the important support level of 3500 yuan/ton, and the futures price is expected to move in the direction of least resistance. The absolute price is over - valued, and the monthly spread is expected to decline as warehouse receipts increase [7] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is oscillating weakly. Supply is expected to increase while demand decreases, and geopolitical upgrades will only cause short - term price disturbances [7][8] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price follows the oscillation of crude oil and is expected to be weakly oscillating. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution [9] - **Methanol**: The inland market remains relatively strong, and the price is oscillating. There may be opportunities for long - positions in the far - month contracts [22] - **Urea**: The market is mainly in a stalemate, and the futures price is oscillating weakly. The short - term fundamentals cannot provide effective support [22][23] - **Ethylene Glycol (EG)**: Port inventory accumulation is not sustainable, and the medium - term price support is strengthening. The price is expected to oscillate within a certain range [16][19] - **PX**: The price of oil has stopped falling slightly, and the chemical products are in the stage of bottom - consolidation. The short - term cost still provides some support, and the price decline space is limited [11] - **PTA**: The sales volume of polyester filament has increased, boosting market sentiment. The price is expected to oscillate, and the focus is on the implementation of major factory maintenance at the beginning of August [12][13] - **Short - Fiber**: The sales are mediocre, and the market is in a consolidation phase. The price follows the movement of raw materials, and the bottom support is strengthening [19][20] - **Bottle Chip**: The raw materials have stabilized, supporting the bottom of the price. The price follows the cost of raw materials in the short term [20][21] - **PP**: Affected differently by oil and coal, the price is oscillating. The supply side still has an increasing trend, and the demand side is in the off - peak to peak season transition [27][28] - **Propylene (PL)**: Supported by spot maintenance, the PP - PL spread around 600 is considered reasonable, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [28] - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: The maintenance rate has decreased, and inventory has increased. The price is oscillating, and the supply side still faces certain pressure [26] - **Pure Benzene**: Import arrivals have decreased, and downstream production has started. The buying sentiment has increased this week, and the market structure has turned to Back. The overall inventory is expected to decrease slightly in August [13][14] - **Styrene**: The supply - demand outlook is still weak, and attention should be paid to the accumulation of factory inventory. The non - integrated profit has reached a neutral level [15][16] - **PVC**: The cost provides support, and the futures price is oscillating. The supply is expected to increase, and the pressure comes from high supply and continuous inventory accumulation [31] - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price has stabilized, and the price is temporarily oscillating. The 50% caustic soda price has rebounded, which has a certain boosting effect on the futures price [32] 3.3 Data Monitoring 3.3.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different products have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread being 0.67 with no change, and Dubai's M1 - M2 spread being 0.75 with a 0.01 change [34] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each product has corresponding basis and warehouse - receipt data. For example, the basis of asphalt is 199 with a change of - 83, and the number of warehouse receipts is 76670 [35] - **Inter - product Spreads**: There are various inter - product spread data, such as the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread being - 335 with a change of - 1 [36] 3.3.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Specific monitoring data for products such as methanol, urea, styrene, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, bottle - chip, asphalt, crude oil, LPG, fuel oil, LLDPE, PP, PVC, and caustic soda are provided, but detailed data summaries are not presented in the text [37][49][60]

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/08/12 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: Eligible families in Beijing have no limit on the number of housing units ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [7] Core Viewpoints - The black building materials market is currently in a state where supply is subject to continuous disruptions, and prices are generally strong. With stable fundamentals, there is a possibility of further resonance between macro - level positive factors and the industry. In the short term, before new driving factors emerge, the market will mainly oscillate within the current range [1][2] Summary by Category Iron Element - Supply: Overseas mines' shipments decreased slightly month - on - month, and the arrivals at 45 ports dropped to the level of the same period last year, with relatively stable supply and limited increase [2] - Demand: The profitability rate of steel enterprises reached the highest level in the same period of the past three years. Due to routine maintenance, iron - water production decreased slightly but remained at a high level year - on - year. The possibility of production cuts in the short term due to profit reasons is small. Attention should be paid to whether there are production - restriction policies in the second half of the month [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of iron ore in port areas increased due to the concentrated arrival of sea - floating cargoes, but the inventory accumulation was limited [2] - Outlook: With limited negative driving factors in the fundamentals, the price is expected to oscillate in the future [2] Carbon Element - Supply: In the main production areas, some coal mines reduced production due to factors such as changing working faces and over - production inspections. Some coal mines actively stopped or reduced production under the "276 - working - day" system. Although the import of Mongolian coal remained at a high level, the TT mine in Mongolia implemented quantity - limiting measures for some traders, which may affect future customs clearance [3] - Demand: Coke production remained stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal was strong. Downstream enterprises mainly purchased on demand. Some coal mines had started to accumulate inventory, and the spot market became more cautious [3] - Outlook: With supply disruptions, the short - term supply - demand relationship is tight, and the futures market is expected to be more likely to rise than fall in the short term [3] Alloys - Manganese Silicon: With the continuous increase in coke prices, the cost support for manganese silicon has been continuously strengthened. The market is more cautious, but traders are still reluctant to sell at low prices, and port ore prices remain firm. The downstream demand for manganese silicon remains resilient, but as manufacturers' resumption of production progresses, the supply - demand relationship may gradually become looser. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate following the sector [3] - Ferrosilicon: The production of ferrosilicon is expected to increase rapidly. The downstream steel - making demand remains resilient, and the supply - demand relationship is relatively healthy. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate following the sector [3] Glass - Demand: In the off - season, demand declined, deep - processing orders decreased month - on - month, and the inventory days of raw glass increased month - on - month, indicating speculative purchases by downstream enterprises. After the futures market declined, the sentiment in the spot market cooled down, and the sales of middle - stream and upstream enterprises decreased significantly [4] - Supply: One production line is still waiting to produce glass, and the overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable. The upstream inventory decreased slightly, with few internal contradictions but more market - sentiment disturbances [4] - Outlook: Although the cost support has strengthened due to the recent increase in coal prices, the fundamentals are still weak. In the short term, the futures and spot markets are expected to oscillate widely [4] Steel - Core Logic: As the parade date approaches, there are continuous rumors of production restrictions in steel mills. The output of rebar increased, while that of hot - rolled coils decreased. The apparent demand for rebar rebounded, but inventory continued to accumulate. In the off - season, the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased, and inventory also continued to accumulate [9] - Outlook: Although the fundamentals of steel have weakened marginally, the low inventory and potential production - restriction disturbances before the parade still support the short - term futures market. Attention should be paid to the implementation of steel - mill production - restriction policies and terminal demand [9] Iron Ore - Core Logic: Port transactions increased. Overseas mines' shipments decreased slightly month - on - month, and arrivals at 45 ports dropped to the level of the same period last year. The profitability rate of steel enterprises reached the highest level in the same period of the past three years. Iron - water production decreased slightly due to routine maintenance but remained at a high level year - on - year. The total inventory of iron ore in port areas increased due to the concentrated arrival of sea - floating cargoes, but the inventory accumulation was limited [9] - Outlook: With high demand and stable supply, and limited negative driving factors in the fundamentals, the price is expected to oscillate in the future [9] Scrap Steel - Core Logic: The supply of scrap steel decreased as market sentiment improved and the willingness to sell declined. The demand increased as the daily consumption of electric furnaces reached a high level in the same period, and the total daily consumption of scrap steel in both long - and short - process production increased slightly. The inventory in factories decreased slightly, and the available inventory days dropped to a relatively low level [10] - Outlook: With decreasing supply and increasing demand, and optimistic market sentiment, the price is expected to oscillate [10] Coke - Core Logic: In the futures market, coke prices oscillated at a high level following coking coal. In the spot market, prices increased. After five rounds of price increases, coke enterprises' overall profit returned to near the break - even point, and production remained stable. Downstream steel mills had good profits and high production enthusiasm. Although iron - water production decreased slightly, it remained at a high level. The overall inventory of coke enterprises was low, but some downstream steel mills had tight inventory [10] - Outlook: With a relatively healthy fundamental situation and the start of the sixth round of price increases, the futures market still has support in the short term. Attention should be paid to possible production - restriction policies during the parade [10] Coking Coal - Core Logic: In the futures market, prices oscillated at a high level due to supply disruptions. In the spot market, prices increased. In the main production areas, some coal mines reduced production, and some implemented the "276 - working - day" system. Although the import of Mongolian coal remained at a high level, the TT mine in Mongolia implemented quantity - limiting measures for some traders. Coke production remained stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal was strong. Downstream enterprises mainly purchased on demand, and some coal mines had started to accumulate inventory [3][12] - Outlook: Due to supply disruptions, the short - term supply - demand relationship is tight, and the futures market is expected to be more likely to rise than fall in the short term. Attention should be paid to regulatory policies, coal - mine resumption of production, and Mongolian coal imports [3] Glass - Core Logic: The demand in the off - season decreased, deep - processing orders decreased month - on - month, and the inventory days of raw glass increased significantly to the highest level of the year, indicating speculative purchases by downstream enterprises. After the futures market declined, the sentiment in the spot market cooled down, and the sales of middle - stream and upstream enterprises decreased significantly. One production line is still waiting to produce glass, and the overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable. The upstream inventory decreased slightly, with few internal contradictions but more market - sentiment disturbances. Although the cost support has strengthened due to the recent increase in coal prices, the fundamentals are still weak [13] - Outlook: In the short term, the futures and spot markets are expected to oscillate widely. In the long term, with weak actual demand, strong policy expectations, and relatively high raw - material prices, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed. If prices return to fundamental - based trading, they are expected to oscillate downward [13] Soda Ash - Core Logic: The supply - surplus situation remains unchanged. After a round of negative feedback, the price dropped rapidly in the short term and is now at a discount to the spot price. The supply capacity has not been cleared, and production remains at a high level. The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to remain at a rigid - demand level, while the demand for light soda ash is weak [14] - Outlook: In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate. In the long term, the price center is expected to decline to promote capacity reduction [14] Manganese Silicon - Core Logic: With the continuous increase in coke prices, the cost support for manganese silicon has been continuously strengthened. The market is more cautious, but traders are still reluctant to sell at low prices, and port ore prices remain firm. The downstream demand for manganese silicon remains resilient, but as manufacturers' resumption of production progresses, the supply - demand relationship may gradually become looser [3][16] - Outlook: With limited inventory pressure in the short term, the price is expected to follow the sector. In the long term, as supply pressure increases, the upward price space may be limited [16] Ferrosilicon - Core Logic: With the continuous increase in coking - coal futures prices, market sentiment remained positive, and ferrosilicon prices oscillated upward. The cost support for the spot market is strong due to the increase in the prices of semi - coke and settlement electricity. The supply is expected to increase as manufacturers' profit improves and the enthusiasm for resuming production increases. The downstream demand for steel - making remains resilient, and the price of magnesium ingots has increased steadily [17] - Outlook: With limited inventory pressure in the short term, the price is expected to follow the sector. In the long term, as the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow, the fundamentals may have hidden concerns, and the upward price space is not optimistic. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs [17]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 32nd week of 2025, presenting the issuance progress and net financing scale of various types of bonds as of August 10, 2025 [1][3] 3. Summary by Bond Type 3.1 Special Bonds - As of August 10, the issuance progress of new special bonds is 64.0% [3] - This week, new special bonds worth 40.3 billion yuan were issued, a decrease of 142.9 billion yuan compared to the previous week [3] - As of August 10, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in August is 40.3 billion yuan [4] 3.2 General Bonds - As of August 10, the issuance progress of new general bonds is 68.2% [7] - This week, new general bonds worth 7.3 billion yuan were issued, a decrease of 13.6 billion yuan compared to the previous week [6] - As of August 10, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in August is 7.3 billion yuan [5] 3.3 Local Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds is 82.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 159.7 billion yuan compared to the previous week [8] - As of August 10, the issuance progress of new local bonds is 64.7% [9] 3.4 Treasury Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds is 338.6 billion yuan, an increase of 178.3 billion yuan compared to the previous week [12] - As of August 10, the net financing progress of treasury bonds is 64.7% [13] 3.5 Government Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of government bonds is 421.4 billion yuan, an increase of 1.86 billion yuan compared to the previous week [14] - As of August 10, the progress of treasury bond net financing plus new local bond issuance is 64.7% [14]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The report presents the issuance progress and net financing scale of government bonds in the 32nd week of 2025, including new special bonds, new general bonds, local bonds, and national bonds [3][6][8]. Group 3: Summary by Category New Special Bonds - As of August 10, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 64.0% [3]. - This week, new special bonds issued 4.03 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.29 billion yuan from the previous week [3]. - As of August 10, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in August was 4.03 billion yuan [4]. New General Bonds - As of August 10, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 68.2% [7]. - This week, new general bonds issued 730 million yuan, a decrease of 1.36 billion yuan from the previous week [6]. - As of August 10, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in August was 730 million yuan [5]. Local Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was 8.28 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.97 billion yuan from the previous week [8]. - As of August 10, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 64.7% [9]. National Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of national bonds was 33.86 billion yuan, an increase of 17.83 billion yuan from the previous week [12]. - As of August 10, the net financing progress of national bonds was 64.7% [13]. Government Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of government bonds was 42.14 billion yuan, an increase of 1.86 billion yuan from the previous week [14]. - As of August 10, the progress of national bond net financing plus new local bond issuance was 64.7% [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Macro Outlook**: Overseas markets are in a risk - on mode despite a weak US economic fundamentals and escalating tariff threats. The effectiveness of the August tariff and the upcoming US CPI data along with Fed personnel changes will impact market sentiment. China's exports in July were strong but face risks of decline. For asset allocation, a defensive stance is recommended, focusing on the policy and data inflection points in late August [7]. - **Asset Allocation**: Domestically, reduce allocation to equities and maintain allocation to commodities (emphasizing infrastructure and export - related sectors) and gold. Overseas, reduce allocation to US stocks and maintain allocation to US bonds. Slightly increase allocation to RMB funds and reduce allocation to US dollar money - market funds [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - **Overseas Macro**: The overseas market is in a risk - on state, but the August tariff implementation and upcoming US CPI data, along with Fed personnel changes, will test market sentiment. Trump's nomination of a "trusted person" as a temporary director has raised concerns about the Fed's independence, and the expected difference in US CPI data will affect market risk appetite [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year, mainly due to strong non - US market demand offsetting the decline in exports to the US. However, this may be due to pre - tariff rush shipments, and future exports face risks of decline and restricted re - export trade [7]. - **Asset Views**: Domestically, reduce allocation to equities, maintain allocation to commodities and gold. Overseas, reduce allocation to US stocks, maintain allocation to US bonds, slightly increase allocation to RMB funds, and reduce allocation to US dollar money - market funds. Overall, maintain a defensive layout and focus on the policy and data inflection points in late August [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: After event resolution, the crowding of funds is released, but there is a lack of incremental funds [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The collar strategy strengthens the volatility structure, and attention is paid to the upward movement of volatility [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The market continues to digest the information from the Politburo meeting, and attention is paid to factors such as unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Precious metals are oscillating and strengthening, and attention is paid to Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Attention is paid to the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases, as well as tariff policies and shipping company pricing strategies [8]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and the off - season characteristics persist. Attention is paid to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Molten iron production slightly decreases, and port inventory slightly accumulates. Attention is paid to overseas mine production and shipping, domestic molten iron production, weather, port inventory changes, and policy dynamics [8]. - **Coke**: There is a renewed willingness to raise prices, and the market is oscillating. Attention is paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply disruptions continue, and the market is oscillating at a high level. Attention is paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: The bullish sentiment is digested, and the market trend is weak. Attention is paid to raw material costs and steel procurement [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Market sentiment cools, and futures prices are oscillating weakly. Attention is paid to cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - **Glass**: Speculation in small - sized glass in Shahe has led to a slight improvement in production and sales. Attention is paid to spot production and sales [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Production continues to increase, and the market is oscillating. Attention is paid to soda ash inventory [8]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The risk of overseas recession has increased, and copper prices are under pressure. Attention is paid to supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness of the Fed, and less - than - expected domestic demand recovery [8]. - **Alumina**: Warehouse receipts have increased again, and alumina prices are oscillating under pressure. Attention is paid to unexpected delays in ore复产 and unexpected increases in electrolytic aluminum复产 [8]. - **Aluminum**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and aluminum prices continue to rise. Attention is paid to macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [8]. - **Zinc**: The prices of black series have rebounded again, and zinc prices are oscillating. Attention is paid to risks of macro - direction change and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply [8]. - **Lead**: Supply disruptions in recycled lead have led to a slight rebound in lead prices. Attention is paid to supply - side disruptions and slowdown in battery exports [8]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel inventories are high, and nickel prices are oscillating widely. Attention is paid to unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policies, and less - than - expected supply release [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: Nickel - iron prices continue to rise, and stainless steel futures are oscillating upwards. Attention is paid to Indonesian policies and unexpected increases in demand [8]. - **Tin**: The ore supply is still tight, and tin prices are oscillating. Attention is paid to the expected复产 in Wau and changes in demand improvement expectations [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and silicon prices are oscillating. Attention is paid to unexpected supply - side production cuts and unexpected increases in photovoltaic installations [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market direction is unclear, and lithium carbonate prices are oscillating. Attention is paid to less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical expectations are fluctuating, and attention is paid to the risk of Russian oil. OPEC + production policy and Middle - East geopolitical situation are the focus [10]. - **LPG**: Supply pressure continues, and the cost side dominates the rhythm. Attention is paid to the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - **Asphalt**: It has broken through the important support level of 3500, and futures prices are moving in the direction of least resistance. Attention is paid to unexpected demand [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The contradiction between strong cracking and weak premium persists. Attention is paid to crude oil and natural gas prices [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Futures prices follow crude oil and oscillate weakly. Attention is paid to crude oil and natural gas prices [10]. - **Methanol**: Supported by coal but suppressed by olefins, methanol is oscillating. Attention is paid to macro - energy and upstream and downstream device dynamics [10]. - **Urea**: Domestic supply and demand cannot provide strong support, and export - driven is less than expected. Attention is paid to export policy trends and elimination of production capacity [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Coal is strong and oil is weak, and supply pressure increases. Attention is paid to frequent changes in overseas devices affecting port arrivals [10]. - **PX**: Cost support is insufficient, confidence is under pressure, and its fundamental driving force is limited. Attention is paid to significant fluctuations in crude oil, macro - changes, and unexpected PTA device maintenance [10]. - **PTA**: Scheduled maintenance cannot boost processing fees, and prices are still suppressed by costs. Attention is paid to wide - range cost fluctuations, unexpected device maintenance, and unexpected polyester production reduction [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: Downstream demand has slightly improved, and attention is paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction. Attention is paid to the purchasing rhythm and production start - up of downstream yarn mills [10]. - **Bottle Chips**: Overall demand is sluggish, and the repair height of processing fees is limited. Attention is paid to unexpected production increase of bottle - chip enterprises and a surge in overseas export orders [10]. - **Propylene**: It mainly follows market fluctuations and oscillates in the short term. Attention is paid to oil prices and domestic macro - situation [10]. - **PP**: Fundamental support is limited, and PP oscillates weakly. Attention is paid to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situation [10]. - **Plastic**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories are accumulating, and plastic oscillates weakly. Attention is paid to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situation [10]. - **Styrene**: Commodity sentiment has improved, and attention is paid to the implementation of policy details. Attention is paid to oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [10]. - **PVC**: There is cost support, and the futures market oscillates. Attention is paid to expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: Spot prices have stabilized, and caustic soda oscillates temporarily. Attention is paid to market sentiment, production start - up, and demand [10]. - **Oils and Fats**: It oscillated and adjusted yesterday, waiting for further information guidance. Attention is paid to US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10]. - **Protein Meal**: There is concern about the supply shortage in the fourth quarter. Attention is paid to US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro - situation, and China - US and China - Canada trade wars [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: The number of incoming vehicles has returned to a low level, and futures have stabilized and rebounded. Attention is paid to less - than - expected demand, macro - situation, and weather [10]. - **Pigs**: Spot prices are still weak, and expectations support the futures market. Attention is paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Rubber**: Market sentiment is okay, and rubber prices are rising slowly. Attention is paid to production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It oscillates within a range. Attention is paid to significant fluctuations in crude oil [10]. - **Pulp**: Futures are running stably, and attention is paid to low - buying opportunities in the far - month contracts. Attention is paid to macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US - dollar quotes [10]. - **Cotton**: Low inventory supports cotton prices, and attention is paid to marginal changes in demand. Attention is paid to demand and inventory [10]. - **Sugar**: Supply pressure is increasing marginally, and sugar prices are under pressure and weakening. Attention is paid to imports [10]. - **Logs**: It oscillates within a narrow range. Attention is paid to shipping volume and dispatch volume [10].

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/08/08 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: China's exports grew by 7.2% in July, and the PBOC increased its gold rese ...