Report Investment Rating - There is no specific investment rating for the industry provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Policy boosts market confidence, and optimism is maintained in the medium term [2] - In the stock index futures market, the Shanghai Composite Index closed above 4,000 points, and all varieties showed an upward trend. The market is expected to be bullish in the medium term [3][4] - In the stock index options market, trading is mainly focused on style rotation, and long - term optimism is maintained [3][4] - In the treasury bond futures market, the market shows a differentiated trend, and it is expected to be oscillating with a bullish bias in the short - term and in the later part of the fourth quarter [5][11] Summary by Directory Market Views Stock Index Futures - The Shanghai Composite Index closed above 4,000 points. The basis, inter - period spreads, and positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM changed. The market rally was concentrated in local sectors, and there are concerns about the sustainability of the rally. The strategy is to use dividend ETF + IM long positions [9] Stock Index Options - The underlying market recovered, and the Shanghai Composite Index closed above 4,000 points. The trading volume of the options market decreased, and trading was mainly focused on style rotation. Sellers' put position ratio continued to rise, and long - term optimism is maintained. Recommended strategies are covered call and bull spread [10] Treasury Bond Futures - Most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures rose. The central bank's reverse repurchase operation led to looser liquidity. The short - and medium - term spot bond buying was strong, while the TL2512 contract was relatively weak. The market is expected to be oscillating with a bullish bias, and different strategies are recommended for different trading purposes [10][11] Economic Calendar - It shows the economic data release schedule for the week, including China's industrial enterprise profit rate, the eurozone's M3 money supply growth rate, the US existing home sales index, the US federal funds rate target, Japan's unemployment rate, China's official manufacturing PMI, and the eurozone's HICP annual rate [12] Important Information and News Tracking - China - US leaders will hold a meeting in Busan, South Korea, to exchange views on bilateral relations and common concerns [13] - Beijing Securities Regulatory Bureau and other units issued an implementation plan to promote the entry of long - term funds into the market [13] - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange issued a notice to facilitate foreign exchange settlement and support the stable development of foreign trade [13] - China welcomes more foreign financial institutions and long - term funds to invest in China, and foreign institutions are optimistic about China's economic and capital market prospects [13] Derivatives Market Monitoring - It includes data on stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but no specific data content is provided in the given text [14][18][30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of various agricultural products show different trends. For example, natural rubber prices have risen significantly due to macro - sentiment, while synthetic rubber prices have hit a new low this year due to falling raw material prices. The prices of other products such as oils and fats, protein meals, and corn are also affected by factors such as trade relations, supply and demand, and weather [1][15]. - Different products have different outlooks. Some products may have short - term upward potential but also face risks, while others are expected to be weak in the medium - to - long term [14][17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Oils and Fats**: Concerned about changes in trade relations, the market sentiment remains weak. Affected by factors such as the US government shutdown, the expected meeting between Chinese and US leaders, and the supply and demand situation of soybeans and palm oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil are expected to be in a weak and volatile state [7]. - **Protein Meals**: China may purchase US soybeans, and the two types of meals may fluctuate at a high level. International trade relations and domestic supply and demand, as well as factors such as Brazilian soybean sowing progress and the impact of La Nina, affect the price of protein meals [8]. - **Corn/Starch**: The market fluctuates. Although there has been a short - term rebound, factors such as high yields in Northeast China and low - quality grain pressure in North China may lead to downward price pressure in the future [10]. - **Pigs**: Supply and demand both decrease, and pig prices fluctuate. In the short term, secondary fattening affects the supply, and in the long term, the reduction of sow production capacity will gradually relieve the supply pressure [11]. - **Natural Rubber**: Driven by macro - sentiment, rubber prices have risen significantly again. It is a short - term oversold rebound. The impact of previous reserve sales has been digested, and the price may continue to rise in the short term but needs continuous macro - support [14]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Raw materials continue to fall, and the market hits a new low this year. High production and slow growth in demand lead to high inventory, and although there may be a bottom - out rebound, there is also a risk of further decline [16]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices fluctuate slightly on the strong side. Factors such as the reduction of the expected increase in production in Xinjiang and the high purchase price of cottonseed have pushed up the price. However, there is a risk of correction after the possible macro - positive factors are digested [16]. - **Sugar**: The expectation of a subsequent decrease in imports drives the rebound of Zhengzhou sugar. Internationally, the supply of sugar is expected to increase, and the domestic market may rebound in the short term but is bearish in the medium - to - long term [17]. - **Pulp**: The financial trading atmosphere drives the rise of pulp futures, but the spot and futures are still separated. The supply and demand situation is weak, and the price increase space is limited, but attention should be paid to the impact of changes in waste pulp [18]. - **Offset Paper**: The offset paper fluctuates in a narrow range. The supply pressure exists, the distributor's sales pressure is high, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general. Enterprises are more willing to stabilize prices [19]. - **Logs**: Negative factors are fermenting, and the valuation is low. Affected by factors such as concentrated port arrivals and weak sales of integrated materials, the market is expected to be in a weak and volatile state [22]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring The report lists the data of various varieties, including prices, production, and inventory, but does not provide a detailed analysis of these data in the given text. 3.3 Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, characteristic index, and sector index of commodities are presented. The comprehensive index shows an upward trend, while the agricultural product index has a decline of 0.24% on the day, a 0.03% increase in the past 5 days, a 1.55% decline in the past month, and a 2.74% decline since the beginning of the year [178][179].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The precious metals market is rated as "oscillating strongly" in the short - term and is expected to benefit from the downward trend of real interest rates in the medium - term. London gold is expected to trade between $3900 - $4100 per ounce, and London silver between $48 - $52 per ounce [9] Core Viewpoints - The Fed's "rate cut + end of quantitative tightening" signals a marginal improvement in liquidity, but Powell's hawkish remarks at the press conference dampened market expectations of continuous easing. The combination of hawkish policy signals and tightened money markets leads to short - term oscillations in the precious metals market, while the medium - term outlook remains positive due to the downward trend of real interest rates [3][5][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25bp to 3.75% - 4.00% and will stop the balance - sheet reduction operation from December. The New York Fed will reinvest all maturing Treasury and MBS principal, keeping the balance - sheet size at about $6.6 trillion [4] - Powell signaled hawkishness, stating that a December rate cut is "far from certain". After the meeting, the market's probability of another rate cut in December dropped from nearly 100% to 64% [4] - Chinese and US leaders held a meeting in Busan, South Korea on October 30, the first face - to - face meeting since Trump returned to the White House, exchanging views on Sino - US relations and issues of common concern [4] - The Israel - Palestine conflict escalated, with Israeli military air - strikes on the Gaza Strip killing at least 100 civilians, and Hamas denying violating the cease - fire agreement [4] Price Logic - The Fed's "rate cut + end of quantitative tightening" supports gold in the short - term as nominal interest rates decline, but Powell's hawkish stance suppresses expectations of continuous easing. The passive contraction of the Fed's balance - sheet has tightened short - term liquidity, which restricts the price elasticity of gold in the short - term. However, if the money - market pressure persists, gold's hedging and liquidity - hedging functions will strengthen in the medium - term [5] - Silver oscillated and declined with gold, but its price adjustment was limited due to high financing rates in the London market and spot premiums. Industrial demand is moderately recovering, with a strong long - term outlook [5] Outlook - In November, attention should be paid to non - farm substitute data and frequent speeches by Fed officials. If employment indicators show signs of cooling and liquidity tightness persists, the probability of a December rate cut may be revised upwards. Overall, precious metals are expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term and benefit from the downward trend of real interest rates in the medium - term [6][9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific industry investment rating [1][2][3][4][6][7][9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term asset allocation should be balanced. After the Fed's interest rate cut decision in the October meeting, the progress of China - US tariff talks, and the release of details from the 20th Fourth Plenary Session, it is expected to benefit overseas and domestic equity sectors (especially the science and technology innovation sector) and non - ferrous metals. Black commodities may also have a rebound opportunity due to domestic policy improvement, while precious metals may continue to adjust in the short term [6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The US government shutdown continued this week. China - US tariff expectations eased, and the CPI in September was lower than expected, strengthening the expectation of monetary easing. Reasons include the lower - than - expected September CPI, the 12th rejection of the temporary budget bill by the Senate, the increased economic downward pressure after the government shutdown, and the easing of China - US tariff expectations [6] - **Domestic Macro**: On October 28, the "Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China for Formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" and its explanatory notes were released, emphasizing the strategic position of science and technology and emerging industries, and also covering areas such as boosting consumption, expanding effective investment, and "anti - involution" [6] - **Asset Views**: Short - term balanced allocation is recommended. After the Fed's interest rate cut decision, China - US tariff talks, and the release of details from the plenary session, equity sectors and non - ferrous metals may benefit, black commodities may rebound, and precious metals may continue to adjust [6] 3.2 Market Performance of Various Assets - **Financial Market**: Stock index futures showed a shrinking - volume rebound, with the growth style being active due to technology events. Stock index options had a slightly lower trading volume. Treasury bond futures remained weak [2][7] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver entered a short - term adjustment phase due to the easing of geopolitical and economic and trade tensions [7] - **Shipping**: The freight rate of the European container shipping line was under pressure as the peak season in the third quarter ended [7] - **Black Building Materials**: The steel industry faced policy disturbances and inventory pressure. Iron ore was mainly affected by sentiment. Coke's price increase was about to be implemented, and coking coal prices were strong. Other related products also had their own market characteristics [7] - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Copper prices fell in the short term due to trade frictions. Aluminum prices rose, while zinc prices were weak. Other non - ferrous metals also showed different trends [7] - **Energy and Chemicals**: The energy and chemical industry still faced a weak supply - demand situation. Most products were expected to fluctuate, with some showing a downward trend [9] - **Agriculture**: The agricultural market showed a mixed trend. Some products were affected by factors such as weather, trade relations, and supply - demand [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Most of the varieties in the energy and chemical industry are rated as "oscillating", including PX, PTA, short - fiber, methanol, urea, LLDPE, PP, PL, PVC, and caustic soda. Some are rated as "oscillating weakly", such as crude oil, pure benzene, and styrene. Others are rated as "oscillating downward", like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil [9][17][18] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical support for crude oil shows signs of weakening. If there is no further reduction in supply, oil prices will return to a weak supply - demand situation. The chemical sector is waiting for more guidance. The bullish power of styrene is gradually brewing, but it still faces pressure from high inventory and new installations. The strong pattern of PTA may change after the meeting of the Price Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. Overall, the energy and chemical industry is expected to oscillate and consolidate in the short term, waiting for the geopolitical situation to calm down [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Supply pressure continues, and geopolitical risks still exist. - **Main Logic**: Concerns about Russian oil supply have eased, and the spot market for Middle Eastern crude oil has weakened. The marginal geopolitical risk has decreased. The API data shows a decline in US crude oil inventories last week, but the overseas supply pressure still persists. If geopolitical concerns continue to ease, oil prices will return to a weak state [9] Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: As crude oil prices fall, asphalt may be pressured to decline. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will continue to increase production in November, Saudi Arabia has lowered the export premium to Asia, and the Israel - Palestine conflict has ended. After the sharp rise in oil prices, the market is evaluating the situation, and oil prices have fallen, which may put pressure on asphalt futures prices. The asphalt - fuel oil spread is expected to continue to decline, and the over - valuation premium of asphalt is starting to fall [9][10] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: As crude oil prices fall, fuel oil may be pressured to decline. - **Main Logic**: After the rise in oil prices, the market is evaluating the situation, and oil prices have fallen, driving fuel oil prices down. Although the Israel - Palestine conflict has ended, the Russia - Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, and the demand for fuel oil is still weak [10] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates and rises following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the oscillation of crude oil. It is affected by factors such as sanctions on Russia, and its fundamentals face challenges such as a decline in shipping demand and substitution by green energy [12] Methanol - **Viewpoint**: Overseas disturbances will increase after November, and methanol is viewed with oscillation. - **Main Logic**: On October 28, the methanol futures price oscillated and declined. The high port inventory still has a suppressing effect in the short term, but considering the high probability of Iranian disturbances approaching winter, methanol still has value for low - buying [29] Urea - **Viewpoint**: The market sentiment has ebbed, and it is viewed with continuous pressure. - **Main Logic**: On October 28, the market sentiment weakened, and the spot downstream transactions were cautious. Urea returned to the fundamental situation and is expected to oscillate and consolidate [30] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Viewpoint**: Driven by the sentiment of related varieties, but the fundamentals are under pressure and the elasticity is limited. - **Main Logic**: The cost side oscillates without a clear direction. The supply of coal - based MEG is high, and the supply pressure in November is still large, leading to a significant inventory build - up from November to December [20] PX - **Viewpoint**: The market sentiment fermentation and cost game, pay attention to the conference resolution. - **Main Logic**: The concern about Russian oil supply has eased, and the medium - and long - term oil prices still face surplus pressure, causing the cost support to be insufficient in the short term. The PX supply - demand pattern has slightly improved, and the bottom support of PXN has increased. The price is expected to be sorted out within the range in the short term [13][14] PTA - **Viewpoint**: The cost has fallen and failed to resonate with the sentiment. Pay attention to the subsequent situation of the conference. - **Main Logic**: The cost support is insufficient in the short term due to the easing of concerns about Russian oil supply. The downstream production and sales have turned cold. The PTA price is expected to oscillate under the game between cost and the fermentation of the conference news [14][16] Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: Pay attention to the upstream sentiment fermentation, and there is no pressure on its own inventory. - **Main Logic**: After the slowdown in price increase, the production and sales of polyester short - fiber have become dull. The downstream demand is weak, and the cost support is disturbed. The price is expected to be sorted out within the range in the short term [24][25] Bottle - Chip - **Viewpoint**: The cost support has weakened, pay attention to the conference results. - **Main Logic**: The market is digesting the impact of anti - involution on upstream polyester raw materials. The oil price has turned down again, and the polyester bottle - chip price is expected to oscillate following the cost in the short term [26] Propylene and PP - **Viewpoint**: The spread between propylene and PP continues to fluctuate in the range of 500 - 550, and PL oscillates. PP is viewed within a range. - **Main Logic**: The oil price oscillates, and the supply - side situation of Russian oil is difficult to verify. The fundamentals of PP support are limited, and the inventory is at a high level. The PL price oscillates, and the spread between PP and PL fluctuates around 500 [33][34] Plastic (LLDPE) - **Viewpoint**: The cost - side support confronts the supply - demand pressure, and plastic is viewed within a range. - **Main Logic**: The oil price rebounds, and the supply - side situation of Russian oil is difficult to verify. The plastic's own fundamentals support is limited, and the profit support is also limited. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [32] Styrene - **Viewpoint**: There is a lack of positive driving factors, and styrene oscillates weakly. - **Main Logic**: Styrene has followed the decline in oil prices and then rebounded, but the rebound is weak. It is affected by factors such as new installations and weak downstream follow - up [18][19] PVC - **Viewpoint**: It has low valuation and weak expectations, and PVC oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The macro - level sentiment has improved, but the PVC fundamentals are under pressure. The production will increase, the downstream demand is only released at low prices, and the export is affected by anti - dumping [36] Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The spot price stabilizes, and the futures price oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The macro - level sentiment has improved, but the upstream production is high. The demand elasticity of caustic soda is limited, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [37] 4. Summary of Index Data - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index was 2242.59, down 0.90%; the commodity 20 index was 2532.38, down 1.19%; the industrial products index was 2238.86, down 0.64% [285] - **Energy Index**: On October 28, 2025, the energy index was 1168.84, with a daily decline of 0.85%, a 5 - day increase of 3.52%, a 1 - month decline of 2.56%, and a year - to - date decline of 4.81% [287]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Futures: Bullish [7] - Options: Neutral [7] - Bonds: Bullish [7] 2. Core Views - Futures: The market is in a consolidation phase, with limited downside potential due to policy support and potential inflows of funds. A dumbbell strategy is recommended, with a shift to growth stocks once trading volume recovers [7]. - Options: Volatility continues to decline, and the overall outlook remains positive. Consider covered call or bull spread strategies [7]. - Bonds: Bullish sentiment prevails. The central bank's decision to resume trading in government bonds is expected to support the bond market in the short term, and the potential implementation of additional quantitative tools could further boost the market in the second half of the fourth quarter [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Views - **Futures** - Base spreads for IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased, while inter - period spreads changed. Open interest decreased across the board [7]. - The Shanghai Composite Index faced resistance at the 4000 - point level, but the decline was mainly due to the release of overcrowded funds. A dumbbell strategy is recommended, and the shift to growth stocks depends on volume recovery. The central bank's decision to resume trading in government bonds has increased the attractiveness of dividend - paying stocks [7]. - Recommended strategy: Long dividend ETFs and IM futures [7]. - **Options** - The underlying market was volatile, with a decline in trading volume and liquidity. The PCR ratio increased, indicating that sellers remain optimistic. Volatility declined, especially at the out - of - the - money end [7]. - Recommended strategy: Covered call or bull spread [7]. - **Bonds** - Trading volume and open interest increased for TF, TS, and TL, while T decreased. Inter - period spreads and basis spreads changed [7]. - The central bank's net injection of funds through reverse repurchase operations helped maintain a balanced liquidity situation. The market's reaction to the central bank's decision to resume trading in government bonds led to a bullish sentiment in the bond futures market, with a divergence in the cash bond market. The short - term outlook for the bond market is positive, and the implementation of additional quantitative tools could further support the market [7]. - Recommended strategies: Trend strategy - bullish; Hedging strategy - short - hedge at low basis levels; Basis strategy - long - end arbitrage opportunities; Curve strategy - consider curve steepening [7]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - China's industrial profits in September increased by 21.6% year - on - year, compared to 20.4% in the previous period [9]. - The annual growth rate of the eurozone's M3 money supply in September was 2.8%, down from 2.9% [9]. - Upcoming data releases include the US existing home sales index in September, the US federal funds rate target in October, Japan's unemployment rate in September, China's official manufacturing PMI in October, and the eurozone's HICP annual rate in October [9]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **15th Five - Year Plan**: The plan aims to improve the income distribution system, increase residents' property income, and promote a more equitable distribution of wealth [10]. - **Regulatory Rules**: The central bank will continue to prevent and resolve financial risks, support the debt restructuring of financing platforms, and promote the healthy development of the real estate market [11]. - **Pharmaceutical Industry**: The 11th batch of national drug procurement results were announced. Despite intense competition, a relatively high winning rate was maintained through various measures [11]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - **Futures**: No specific data was provided in the given text [12]. - **Options**: No specific data was provided in the given text [16]. - **Bonds**: No specific data was provided in the given text [28].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The medium - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] Core View of the Report - The release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal boosts market confidence, and most varieties in the black sector showed an upward trend in the day and night sessions. Although policy implementation is long - term, market sentiment may be further boosted later. However, as the off - season approaches, the weakening of fundamentals is likely to limit the upward space of sector prices [1][2][6] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Situation of the Black Building Materials Industry - **Market Sentiment**: The release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal has a positive impact on market sentiment, and there is potential for further improvement [1][2][6] - **Industry Outlook**: In the medium term, the industry is expected to oscillate. The fundamentals may weaken as the off - season begins, restricting price increases [6] 2. Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: The marginal weakening expectation of the fundamentals remains. Due to Tangshan's production restrictions and seasonal maintenance, the decline in hot metal output is expected. The arrival of domestic ores will be stable, and inventory will increase marginally. However, considering the decrease in the weight of fundamental pricing and the warming of macro - expectations, there is still support for periodic upward movement during the oscillation of ore prices [2] - **Scrap Steel**: The fundamental contradictions of scrap steel are not prominent, and its price is expected to follow the trend of finished products in the short term [2][11] 3. Carbon Element - **Coke**: Environmental protection production restrictions affect both supply and demand, but the overall impact is limited in Hebei. The short - term supply - demand structure is still tight, and the price is expected to oscillate [2] - **Coking Coal**: The supply recovery is slow, and subsequent increments are limited. The middle and lower reaches are actively purchasing, and the inventory of upstream coal mines remains low. With the positive macro - environment, there is support for periodic upward movement during the oscillation of coal prices [2] 4. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Cost reduction is limited, and high steel production supports the price. However, the market has a pessimistic supply - demand expectation, and there is obvious upward pressure on the price [3] - **Silicon Iron**: High finished product output and strong cost support the price, but the supply - demand relationship is loose, and the upward price space is expected to be limited [3] 5. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: As the meeting approaches, market expectations improve, and there is positive feedback space after the rebound of the disk price. However, considering the inventory levels of the middle and lower reaches, the restocking space is limited, and the rebound space is expected to be limited. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the price may continue to oscillate downward [3][15] - **Soda Ash**: The oversupply situation remains unchanged. It is expected to fluctuate widely following the macro - environment, and the long - term price center will move down to promote capacity reduction [3] 6. Specific Analysis of Each Variety - **Steel**: The macro - environment is warm, but the actual steel inventory is high year - on - year, and the upward space is limited. Attention should be paid to relevant domestic policies and the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations [8] - **Iron Ore**: The macro - atmosphere is warm, and the disk price is strengthening. The fundamentals are slightly weakening, but overall contradictions are not significant. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [9][10] - **Scrap Steel**: The arrival volume remains low, and the electric furnace profit is recovering. The price is expected to follow the finished products in the short term [11] - **Coke**: Both supply and demand are weakening, and the disk is oscillating. The impact of environmental protection production restrictions is limited, and the price is expected to oscillate [13] - **Coking Coal**: The supply recovery is slow, and the inventory of upstream coal mines is low. The price is expected to oscillate with support for periodic upward movement [14] - **Glass**: As the meeting approaches, expectations improve, and there is positive feedback space after the rebound, but the rebound space is limited. In the long - term, the price may oscillate downward [15] - **Soda Ash**: The output is increasing month - on - month, and the market is operating stably. It is expected to oscillate widely following the macro - environment, and the long - term price center will move down [16][17] - **Manganese Silicon**: The short - term price is supported, but the supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and there is obvious upward pressure [18] - **Silicon Iron**: High finished product output and strong cost support the price, but the supply - demand relationship is loose, and the upward price space is limited [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. However, individual product outlooks are given as follows: - **Oils and Fats**: Expected to continue to fluctuate weakly, with palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil all showing a weak - fluctuating trend [1][2][6] - **Protein Meal**: Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate upwards, and the 1 - 5 inverse spread of soybean meal is temporarily held, with double - buying of options [7] - **Corn/Starch**: Expected to fluctuate, with short - term short positions held and attention paid to the stop - profit rhythm [9][10] - **Pigs**: Expected to fluctuate, with a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern, and attention paid to inverse spread strategy opportunities [11] - **Natural Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate and find the bottom [12][13] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate at the bottom, with a possibility of hitting a new low this year [14][15] - **Cotton**: Expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but attention should be paid to the upper pressure [15] - **Sugar**: Expected to rebound in the short term but remain bearish in the long - term, with a recommendation to short on rebounds [16] - **Pulp**: Expected to fluctuate, with a preference for waiting and seeing [16][17] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Expected to maintain a narrow - range fluctuation, with a single - side strategy of waiting and seeing [17] - **Logs**: Expected to fluctuate weakly in the near term [19][20][21] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn/starch, pigs, natural and synthetic rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, offset printing paper, and logs. It considers factors such as macro - environment, industry supply and demand, and trade relations to provide short - term and long - term outlooks for each product, along with corresponding investment strategies [1][6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: The sentiment is still bearish, and it may continue to fluctuate weakly [1][6] - **Logic**: Macro - environment includes the US government shutdown, Sino - US trade negotiation consensus, expected Fed rate cut, uncertain sanctions on Russia, and expected OPEC+ production increase. From the industrial side, US soybean data is suspended, the US soybean harvest is about 80% complete with a high probability of yield reduction, Brazilian soybean planting progress is 34.4% as of October 25, domestic soybean imports are at a relatively high level, and domestic soybean oil inventory reduction is slow. Malaysian palm oil is likely to accumulate inventory in October, and Indian vegetable oil imports may decline seasonally. Domestic rapeseed oil inventory is expected to stop falling and rise [1][6] - **Outlook**: Palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil are all expected to fluctuate weakly [2][6] 3.2 Protein Meal - **View**: The spot price increases, and the futures price follows, but the repair of crushing profit may suppress the futures price increase [6][7] - **Logic**: Internationally, Sino - US trade relations dominate the market. US soybean new - crop is on the market, and Brazilian soybean old - crop exports in October are increased. Domestically, in the short term, crushing profit is gradually repaired, and the spot price is raised. In the medium term, attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases, origin weather, and downstream replenishment. In the long term, domestic soybean meal supply is expected to be sufficient in Q4 2025, with a possible small shortage in Q1 2026 [7] - **Outlook**: Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate upwards, and the 1 - 5 inverse spread of soybean meal is temporarily held, with double - buying of options [7] 3.3 Corn/Starch - **View**: The number of trucks arriving in North China has decreased, and the futures price has rebounded slightly [9] - **Logic**: The short - term rebound is due to low inventory of grain - using enterprises, slow harvest progress, and increased purchases by state - owned grain depots. However, there are still downward drivers, such as high yield in Northeast China, potential low - quality grain pressure in North China, and insufficient upward price drivers in the sales area [10] - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate, with short - term short positions held and attention paid to the stop - profit rhythm [10] 3.4 Pigs - **View**: The second - fattening inventory is postponed, and the market sentiment is cautious [11] - **Logic**: In terms of supply, in the short term, the utilization rate of second - fattening pens increases, and the supply pressure in late October is relieved. In the medium term, the supply in Q4 is abundant. In the long term, sow production reduction is expected to accelerate in Q4 2025, and the supply pressure will be relieved in H2 2026. In terms of demand, it is the off - season, and the ratio of meat to pig price is falling. In terms of inventory, the utilization rate of second - fattening pens increases [11] - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate, with a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern, and attention paid to inverse spread strategy opportunities [11] 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: The futures market sentiment is okay, and attention should be paid to the origin situation [12] - **Logic**: It is currently a short - term oversold rebound. For RU, the negative impact of the previous reserve release is digested, and the slow registration of warehouse receipts is the focus of long - position trading. For NR, there is still an expectation of increased supply. The supply pressure is not large for now, and the demand is expected to be stable. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the increase in trading volume [13] - **Outlook**: Due to high macro - uncertainty, it is expected to fluctuate and find the bottom [13] 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The raw material support is weak, and the futures market has weakened significantly [14] - **Logic**: The decline in the BR futures price is mainly due to the sharp drop in the price of raw material butadiene. High production this year is a major pressure, and although downstream demand is increasing, the growth rate is lower than that of production, resulting in high social inventory. The butadiene price has been weak recently [15] - **Outlook**: The fundamental pressure is large, and the raw material is hard to improve. It is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, with a possibility of hitting a new low this year [15] 3.7 Cotton - **View**: The reduction in production and increase in cost strongly support the cotton price [15] - **Logic**: In the acquisition, the acquisition cost in Northern Xinjiang is fixed, and the acquisition price in Southern Xinjiang is rising. In the inspection, the national inspection volume is 144.07 million tons as of October 27. In terms of inventory, the commercial inventory is in the accumulation stage. Macro - factors such as Sino - US economic and trade consultations may affect the cotton price. The upper pressure is around 13,600 - 13,800 yuan/ton, and the lower support is around 13,100 - 13,300 yuan/ton [15] - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but attention should be paid to the upper pressure [15] 3.8 Sugar - **View**: The expected reduction in imports leads to the rebound of Zhengzhou sugar [16] - **Logic**: Internationally, the new sugar - making seasons in the Northern Hemisphere are coming, and major producers are expected to increase production. Brazil's sugar production has passed the peak, and the international sugar supply is relatively loose. In China, sugar imports in September decreased, and the new sugar has not entered the concentrated crushing period. The market is trading on the expectation of a further reduction in syrup and premixed powder imports [16] - **Outlook**: It is expected to rebound in the short term but remain bearish in the long - term, with a recommendation to short on rebounds [16] 3.9 Pulp - **View**: The financial trading atmosphere drives the increase in pulp futures, but the futures - spot divergence remains [16][17] - **Logic**: Fundamentally, the recent data is bearish. The demand for softwood pulp is weak, and there is export pressure from overseas to China. The hardwood pulp is in excess supply. The futures price is close to some spot prices, and it is difficult for the futures to have a premium [17] - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate, with a preference for waiting and seeing [17] 3.10 Offset Printing Paper - **View**: It runs in a narrow - range fluctuation [17] - **Logic**: The supply pressure exists due to stable production of large - scale paper mills and new production capacity in South China. Dealers have shipment pressure, and downstream printing factories have few new orders. The cost support from the upstream wood pulp is weak. Although publishers in the North are starting to bid, the market expectation is pessimistic [17] - **Outlook**: A single - side strategy of waiting and seeing is recommended, and attention should be paid to new driving factors [17] 3.11 Logs - **View**: There is no bullish driver, and it fluctuates at the bottom [19][20][21] - **Logic**: Recently, the futures price has fallen and remained low. The short - term market is affected by the possible cancellation of special port fees and the weakening fundamentals, including concentrated port arrivals, decreased sales of laminated wood, and high inventory. The market sentiment is bearish [20][21] - **Outlook**: The fundamentals are weakening, and the spot price may fall. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near term [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The release of the 15th Five - Year Plan proposal boosts the expectation of stable growth, and the improvement of macro - expectations and supply - side disturbances drive the prices of basic metals. In the short and medium term, copper leads the rise of basic metals, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of aluminum ingot price increase. In the long term, the prices of copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to rise due to potential policy stimulus and supply disturbances [1]. - For different metals, copper is expected to be volatile and strong; alumina is expected to be volatile; aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term and the price center may rise in the medium term; zinc is expected to be volatile with a downward trend in the long term; lead is expected to be volatile and strong; nickel is expected to be volatile in the short term; stainless steel is expected to be range - bound; tin is expected to be volatile and strong [6][10][13][16][18][21][23][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Outlook Copper - **Viewpoint**: The resumption of Sino - US trade negotiations makes copper prices trend strong. The macro - sentiment recovers and the trade tensions ease, and the risk appetite of the market increases. The supply of copper ore is increasingly disturbed, and the production of electrolytic copper decreases. The terminal demand is in the peak season, but the inventory reduction is not obvious, and the high price restricts the demand [6][7][8]. - **Outlook**: Volatile and strong [6][7][8]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The fundamental pressure still exists, but the valuation enters the low - range. The high - cost production capacity has a certain degree of reduction, and the domestic market is in a strong inventory - accumulation trend. The ore price is slightly loose, and the price is under pressure. However, more funds are starting to focus on this variety, and the price fluctuation may increase [10]. - **Outlook**: Volatile [9][10]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: The macro - sentiment is repeated, and the aluminum price fluctuates narrowly. Overseas, there is an expectation of interest rate cuts, and the 15th Five - Year Plan in China gives positive policy signals. The domestic replacement production capacity is gradually put into production, and there are marginal disturbances in overseas supply. The traditional peak season is coming to an end, and the terminal demand is stable, and the inventory reduction slows down [12][13]. - **Outlook**: Volatile and strong in the short term, and the price center may rise in the medium term [11][12][13]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: The warehouse receipts continue to rise, and the price fluctuates at a high level. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost support is strong. The supply - side policy is unclear, and the demand falls short of expectations, resulting in a small reduction in production of some enterprises. The demand has marginal improvement, and the inventory and warehouse receipts continue to rise [14]. - **Outlook**: Volatile at a high level in the short term and volatile in the medium term [14]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The macro - optimistic expectation is gradually alleviated. The Sino - US economic and trade relations show a signal of relaxation, and the 15th Five - Year Plan is becoming clearer. The short - term supply of zinc ore is loose, and the smelters' profitability is good and the production willingness is strong. The domestic consumption is entering the off - season, and the demand is generally expected [16]. - **Outlook**: Volatile, with a downward trend in the long term [15][16]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: The virtual - to - real ratio of SHFE lead 2512 is still high, and the lead price may remain volatile and strong. The spot premium slightly decreases, and the supply is slightly less than expected after the holidays. The demand is in the peak season, and the cost is high. The virtual - to - real ratio of SHFE lead 2512 increases significantly [17][18]. - **Outlook**: Volatile and strong [17][18]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: The LME nickel inventory exceeds 250,000 tons, and the nickel price fluctuates. The market sentiment dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are marginally weak. The supply of nickel ore is relatively loose, the production of intermediate products recovers, the price of nickel salts slightly weakens, and the inventory accumulates significantly [18][21]. - **Outlook**: Volatile in the short term [21]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: The price of nickel iron continues to fall, and the stainless - steel market is weak. The price of nickel iron weakens, and the production of stainless steel increases in September. The social inventory and warehouse receipts decrease slightly, and the structural over - supply pressure may appear again after the peak season [22]. - **Outlook**: Range - bound in the short term [22][23]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: The SHFE tin inventory slightly declines, and the tin price fluctuates at a high level. The supply of tin is restricted, the production in Wa State may be postponed, and the supply in Indonesia is expected to be tight. The processing fee of tin concentrates will remain low. The operating rate of refined tin increases, and the inventory reduction slows down [23][24]. - **Outlook**: Volatile and strong [23][24]. 3.2. Market Monitoring - **Copper**: In September, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 50,500 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 4.31%, and increased by 11.62% year - on - year. From January to September, the cumulative production increased by 1.0955 million tons, an increase of 12.22%. As of October 27, the copper inventory in the mainstream areas of the country increased by 2,900 tons to 184,500 tons [7]. - **Alumina**: On October 28, the spot price of alumina in some regions was stable or slightly decreased. An electrolytic aluminum enterprise in Yunnan purchased alumina at a price of 3,040 yuan/ton, 20 yuan/ton lower than the previous period. The alumina warehouse receipts were 223,372 tons, unchanged from the previous day [8][9]. - **Aluminum**: On October 28, the SMM AOO average price was 21,160 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. As of October 27, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the mainstream consumption areas in China increased by 8,000 tons compared with last Thursday, and the inventory of aluminum rods increased by 100 tons [12]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: On October 28, the price of Baotai ADC12 was 20,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The factory - to - factory price of Baotai ADC12 - A00 was - 460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The registered warehouse receipts on the SHFE were 48,836 tons, an increase of 118 tons from the previous day [14][15]. - **Zinc**: On October 28, the spot price of zinc in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin was at a discount to the main contract. As of October 28, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 165,300 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons from last Thursday [15]. - **Lead**: On October 28, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,025 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The SMM 1 lead ingot price was 17,150 - 17,300 yuan, with an average price of 17,225 yuan, a decrease of 25 yuan from the previous day. The social inventory of lead ingots in the main domestic markets decreased by 1,600 tons compared with last Thursday [17]. - **Nickel**: On October 28, the LME nickel inventory was 251,436 tons, an increase of 198 tons from the previous day; the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 31,385 tons, an increase of 1,605 tons from the previous day [18]. - **Stainless Steel**: The latest stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt inventory was 73,896 tons, unchanged from the previous day. On October 28, the spot price of Foshan Hongwang 304 was at a premium of 200 yuan/ton to the stainless - steel main contract [22]. - **Tin**: On October 28, the LME tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 25 tons to 2,700 tons; the SHFE tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 43 tons to 5,609 tons; the SHFE tin position decreased by 5,465 lots to 70,911 lots. The average price of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network 1 tin ingot was 284,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 800 yuan/ton from the previous day [23]. 3.3. Commodity Index - On October 28, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities: the commodity index was 2242.59, a decrease of 0.90%; the commodity 20 index was 2532.38, a decrease of 1.19%; the industrial products index was 2238.86, a decrease of 0.64%. The non - ferrous metals index was 2480.06, with a daily decline of 1.17%, a 5 - day increase of 1.04%, a 1 - month increase of 3.98%, and a year - to - date increase of 7.44% [149][151].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In early November, the planned capacity on European and American routes declined from a high level, while the capacity on the China - Southeast Asia route remained high. The volume of cargo - laden containers shipped from China to the US decreased again, the arrival volume at US ports continued to decline, and the throughput at domestic ports rebounded and remained higher than last year. In mid - October, the US booking volume rebounded [1][2]. Summaries by Related Catalogs High - Frequency Capacity Data - In the 45th week (November 2 - 9), the planned capacity on the US West route was 273,000 TEU, a significant decline of 30% year - on - year and 19% month - on - month; the capacity on the US East route was 164,000 TEU, a year - on - year decline of 9.5% and a month - on - month decline of 23.9%. The capacity on the China - Southeast Asia route was 583,000 TEU, with a year - on - year positive growth of 40.6% and a month - on - month decline of 8.5% [1]. - In the 45th week, the planned capacity on the China - Northern Europe route was 325,000 TEU, with a month - on - month decline of 5.6% and a year - on - year increase of 23.5%; the capacity on the Mediterranean route was 230,000 TEU, a year - on - year increase of 36.8% and a month - on - month decline of 14.8% [2]. Cargo - Laden Container Volume Data Sent to the US - As of October 27, the volume of cargo - laden containers shipped from China to the US was 342,000 TEU, a 6.5% decline from the previous week, and the number of ships was 43, also a 6.5% decline from the previous week. The volume of cargo - laden containers shipped from Vietnam to the US rebounded to 140,000 TEU, a 47.3% month - on - month increase [2]. US Port Arrival Volume Data - As of October 28, the weekly total arrival volume of imported goods at US ports was 465,000 TEU, a 15.7% month - on - month decline; the previous week's data was revised to 550,000 TEU, a 5.9% month - on - month increase. The arrival volume of imported containers from China was 160,000 TEU, and the previous week's data was revised to 202,000 TEU, with only a 0.5% month - on - month increase; the arrival volume of imported containers from Vietnam was 61,000 TEU, and the previous week's data was revised to 74,000 TEU, a 41.7% month - on - month increase [2]. Domestic Port Throughput Data - In the week of October 26, the container throughput at domestic ports decreased by 8.5% month - on - month, was basically flat year - on - year, and reached 5.903 million TEU [2]. Vizion Booking Data - From October 13 - 20, the total US booking volume was updated to 353,000 TEU, a 11.4% month - on - month increase and a 0.8% year - on - year increase; the booking volume from China was 141,000 TEU, a 27% month - on - month increase and a 0.1% year - on - year decrease [3]