投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】669号 数据来源: Mysteel 汾渭 中信期货研究所 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。我可不会因为关注 、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 免责声明：除非另有说明、中信期货有限公司（以下简称"中信期货"） 拥有本报告的版权/或其他相关知识产权。未经授权、不得发 送或复制本报告任何内容。中信期货对于本报告所载的信息、观点以及数据的准确性、可靠性、时效性以及完整性不作任何明确或隐 含的保证。本报告并不构成中信期货给予的任何私人咨询建议。 冬储补库开启,焦煤震荡上行 2026/01/12 研究员: 余典 陶存辉 薛原 串宇蒙 钟宏 从业资格号 F03122523 从业资格号 F03099559 从业资格号 F03100815 从业资格号 F03144159 从业资格号 F03118246 投资咨询号 Z0019832 投资咨询号 Z0020955 投资咨询号 Z0021807 投资咨询号 Z0022199 投资咨询号 Z0022727 今日焦煤期货全线飘红,主力合约im26 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 12, gold and silver prices rose significantly, with Shanghai gold up 2.57% and Shanghai silver up 14.42%. London gold spot exceeded $4,600 per ounce, and London silver spot exceeded $84 per ounce [4]. - The expectation of the Fed's impaired independence dominated the market. The threat of a subpoena to Powell and the uncertainty of the new Fed chairman nominee increased concerns, driving up precious metal prices [5]. - The unannounced result of the 232 investigation on critical minerals and the "Monroe Doctrine" expectation led to the overall strength of the metal sector. The spot shortage logic of silver may persist [6]. - Looking ahead, gold and silver are expected to maintain an overall upward - trending oscillation, with silver's high - volatility state likely to continue in the short term. London gold may reach $4,900 - $5,000 per ounce, and silver may challenge new highs of $90 - $100 per ounce [6]. 3. Summary by Related Factors Fed - related Factors - The Fed chairman is about to change, and the new nominee has not been disclosed. Trump said he had made a decision but refused to reveal it. As of January 12, Kevin Warsh had a 41% chance of being elected, Kevin Hassett 40%, and Christopher Waller 9% [5]. - The Justice Department's subpoena threat to Powell increased market concerns about the Fed's impaired independence, driving up precious metal prices despite the delayed expected interest - rate cut time shown by FED NATOH [5]. Geopolitical and Trade - related Factors - On January 3, the US attacked Venezuela and made remarks about Greenland, increasing the expectation of geopolitical conflicts and the "Monroe Doctrine" - style US foreign policy. This led to resource security concerns and the overall strength of the metal sector [6]. - The result of the US 232 investigation on critical minerals has not been announced, and the hoarding demand may keep squeezing the floating inventory, making the silver spot shortage logic likely to repeat [6]. Market Performance and Outlook - After the negative impact of the Bloomberg Commodity Index weight adjustment last week, gold and silver rebounded. Driven by multiple factors, they are expected to remain strong in the short term [6].

2026-01-12 排 货有 限 公 司 - 12月委内瑞拉产量下滑, 0PEC总 2017年 mnanv Limited -OPEC产量调查数据报告 研究员: 李云旭 从业资格号 F03141405 投资咨询号 Z0021671 影博调查数据显示，2025年12月0PEC产量环比增加4万桶/日，同比增加193万桶/日。分国家来看，12月配额增量保持较低水平，0PE0担织中属 于OPEO+增产8国的5个国家合计产量增幅为6万桶/日，其中伊拉克增产8万桶/日，阿联酋城产2万桶/日。委内瑞拉因受美国对其油运频繁干预影 响，12月产量下降13万桶/日，对OPEC产量形成最大拖累。同比来看OPEC+增产主导的供应压力仍在兑现之中，关注后期OPEC月报数据验证。 风险提示:彭博对数据进行回溯调整。 图表 1: OPEC产量(彭博) | 单位:千桶/日 | 2025年12月 | 产量同比 | 产量环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沙特 | 10000 | 1050 | 0 | | 伊拉克 | 4370 | 250 | 80 | | 科威特 | 2560 | 130 | 0 | | 阿联酋 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - In the week of January 11, the global on - land crude oil inventory stopped falling and rebounded, the floating storage inventory continued to rise, and the full - caliber (including in - transit) inventory declined, meaning the number of in - transit shipments decreased. Regionally, the inventories in China, India, Russia, Europe, and the Middle East all increased [1] 3. Summary by Related Content - **Global Crude Oil Inventory Situation** - Global on - land crude oil inventory stopped falling and rebounded, floating storage inventory continued to climb, and full - caliber (including in - transit) inventory decreased with a reduction in in - transit shipments [1] - **Regional Inventory Changes** - In China, India, Russia, Europe, and the Middle East, the on - land crude oil inventories all increased [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The market's recent focus is on the December non - farm payroll data and the tariff ruling result. The December non - farm payroll data did not cause significant market impact. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.375% in December, exceeding market expectations and well below the previous value of 4.6%, temporarily avoiding the trigger of the Sahm Rule. However, the non - farm employment added in December was 50k, lower than expected and the previous two months' data was revised down by a total of 76k. The labor market demand remains weak. The tariff - related de - dollarization and pre - emptive interest rate cut logic may reverse if the tariff bill is invalidated, but the impact is expected to be short - term. The Federal Reserve's threshold for a January interest rate cut is high, and if the labor market maintains the current "low - speed balance", the short - term monetary easing path may not be supported [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Indicators Exchange Rate - related Indicators - The US dollar index rebounded slightly following the US - Germany interest rate spread. The US Citigroup Economic Surprise Index has recovered. The difference in the US - Europe Citigroup Economic Surprise Index has also increased [2][5][7] - The difference in long - term inflation expectations between the US and Europe has further declined, and the US long - term inflation expectation is oscillating at a low level [9][12] - The US short - term interest rate expectation is significantly changing, and the difference in short - term interest rate expectations between the US and Europe is rising [14][16] - The euro swap basis shows that the US dollar cross - border liquidity pressure is limited [18] Position and Market Sentiment Indicators - The CFTC net position shows that the US dollar maintains a net short position exposure. The VIX index reflects market volatility [21][20] Bond Spread Indicators - Based on the 30 - 10Y spread (in reverse order) and the 10Y swap spread, concerns about US Treasury deficits and the US dollar trend show a slight narrowing of the spreads [23] Commodity - related Indicators - The US dollar index and copper price show that the copper price has risen significantly, and the US dollar index and crude oil price show that the crude oil price has rebounded [27]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report's industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The report tracks the issuance of government bonds, including the issuance and net financing scale of new special bonds, new general bonds, local government bonds, and national bonds in the week up to January 11, 2026, as well as the planned issuance and net financing scale for the following week [2][5][6] 3. Summary by Related Content New Special Bond Issuance - This week, new special bond issuance was 87.4 billion yuan, a 72.9 - billion - yuan increase from the previous week. Next week, the planned issuance is 22.8 billion yuan. As of January 11, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in January was 87.4 billion yuan [2] New General Bond Issuance - This week, new general bond issuance was 1 billion yuan, a 1 - billion - yuan increase from the previous week. Next week, the planned issuance is 0 yuan. As of January 11, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in January was 100 million yuan [2] Local Government Bond Net Financing - This week, the local government bond net financing scale was 114.7 billion yuan, a 97.2 - billion - yuan increase from the previous week. Next week, the planned net financing is 60.9 billion yuan [2] National Bond Net Financing - This week, the national bond net financing scale was 495 billion yuan, a 495 - billion - yuan increase from the previous week. Next week, the planned net financing is - 339.2 billion yuan [5] Government Bond Net Financing - This week, the government bond net financing was 609.7 billion yuan, a 592.2 - billion - yuan increase from the previous week. Next week, the planned net financing is - 278.3 billion yuan [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The tin price is expected to show an oscillating and upward - trending pattern. The short - term price fluctuation range is 350,000 - 400,000 yuan/ton, and if the price breaks through, the upper limit of the range may further rise to about 450,000 - 460,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended that investors continue to hold long positions or allocate long positions on dips [5] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On January 12, 2026, the tin price soared, breaking through 315,000 yuan/ton during intraday trading and reaching a new high for the year. The main reason is the continuous supply disruptions and the further release of price elasticity under high market sentiment [3] - In Myanmar, due to the slower - than - expected explosive approval process, there will be a shortage of production raw materials and difficulties in mine production at the beginning of 2026. It is expected that the average monthly output in Myanmar at the beginning of the year will only be maintained at about 1,000 metal tons [3] - In Indonesia, due to the influence of RKAB approval, the supply in the first quarter may still be restricted. As of January 7, the trading volume of tin in the two major exchanges in Indonesia was 0 [3] - In the African region, political instability and backward infrastructure have continuously restricted tin ore production and exports, and the current risk remains high [3] Fundamental Situation - Currently, the tight situation of domestic tin ore supply remains unresolved, restricting the output of smelting plants. The processing fee for tin concentrate also remains at a low level. As of January 9, the processing fee (TC) for 40% grade tin concentrate in Yunnan was 12,000 yuan/ton [4] - From January to December 2025, China's cumulative refined tin production was 18,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. The single - month output in December was 1,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8% [4] - Under the situation of tight supply, the tin inventory has decreased recently. As of January 9, the domestic tin ingot social inventory was 478 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,042 tons. As of the end of December, the domestic tin ingot enterprise inventory was 3,950 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,400 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2,070 tons [4] Summary and Strategy - In terms of supply, the tin ore supply continues to tighten, resulting in a short - term shortage of raw materials for smelters, low processing fees for tin concentrates, and difficulty in increasing the output of refined products [5] - In terms of demand, the United States is still in an interest - rate - cut cycle, and the expansion of the fiscal end is expected to have a positive effect on the global economy. The semiconductor industry maintains high growth, and consumption in the photovoltaic and new - energy vehicle fields continues to rise. Considering the need to rebuild the industrial chain inventory, tin demand will continue to grow [5]

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The price of lithium carbonate is expected to maintain a relatively strong and volatile pattern. There are opportunities for bottom - fishing and long - position layout due to emotional disturbances [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - The lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit again, with the main contract rising to 156,080 yuan/ton. The current market is driven by the resonance of capital flow and policy changes. Short - term capital risk appetite has risen, and funds have concentrated on upstream resource sectors. The adjustment of the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic and battery products has strengthened the market's expectation of short - term demand advancement and increased downstream production scheduling [2]. Fundamental Situation - Impact of export tax rebate adjustment: In the short term, before the tax rebate is gradually reduced, there is an incentive for battery and related products to be exported in advance, which supports the demand for lithium carbonate and its price. In the long term, the complete cancellation of the tax rebate will increase enterprise costs and compress profit margins, and the long - term impact is more reflected in the improvement of industry concentration and the acceleration of global layout [3]. - Supply side: There is still a risk of short - term supply tightness. Domestic policies and overseas fluctuations need to be noted. Domestic policies may affect short - term supply rhythms, and geopolitical and resource policies in Mali and South America have increased the market's expectation of overseas supply instability [3]. - Demand side: The marginal demand for lithium carbonate has weakened at the current stage, but the long - term expectation is still optimistic, especially the demand on the energy storage side is relatively stable. In the short term, the concentrated maintenance of some leading cathode material enterprises is expected to suppress the demand in January, but the expected cathode production scheduling in January has been revised upwards, and the actual demand is better than expected [3]. - Inventory side: The previous continuous destocking of lithium carbonate has ended, and there was a shift from destocking to stockpiling last week. As of January 9, the social inventory was 110,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 337 tons. The slight inventory accumulation is in line with the logic of the phased decline in demand, and the downstream inventory replenishment demand still exists, with limited impact on prices [3]. Summary and Strategy - Although the inventory of lithium carbonate has slightly accumulated, short - term demand is still resilient. The expectation of pre - export by downstream enterprises before the adjustment of the export tax rebate, concerns about overseas resource fluctuations, and the increase in capital risk appetite support the price of lithium. The long - term demand expectation is also optimistic [4].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core View - The report provides daily data tracking of the aluminum industry chain, including prices, profits, inventories, and import/export balances of alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloy [1] Group 3: Summary by Category Alumina - On January 8, the domestic ore price was 501 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of 0 yuan/ton; the Guinea imported ore price was 66 US dollars/dry ton, with a month-on-month change of 0 US dollars/dry ton [1] - The average price of 50M M00 on January 8 was 24,000 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 140 yuan/ton; the premium/discount was -190 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 50 yuan/ton [1] - On January 8, the futures inventory was 90,208 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 2,278 tons; the import profit and loss was -1,908 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 178 yuan/ton [1] Electrolytic Aluminum - On January 8, the price of Baotai 0031 was 23,100 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 200 yuan/ton [1] - The smelting profit of electrolytic aluminum on January 8 was 7,803 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 133 yuan/ton [1] - On January 8, the spot price index was 2,676 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the futures inventory was 69,737 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 391 tons; the import profit and loss was 44 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 12 yuan/ton [1] Aluminum Alloy - On January 8, the scrap price difference of raw aluminum was 2,691 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 7 yuan/ton; the scrap price difference of profile aluminum was 3,766 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 7 yuan/ton [1] - On January 8, the futures inventory was 154,828 tons, with a month-on-month change of 0 tons; the import profit and loss was -16 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 48 yuan/ton [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - In the stock index futures market, maintain the idea of actively allocating before the Two Sessions, and recommend continuing to hold IC long - positions. The market shows a pattern where small - cap stocks outperform large - cap stocks, and market volume remains high with capital migration rather than withdrawal [1][7]. - In the stock index options market, although the market lacks momentum, there is still local upward movement and the overall sentiment remains good. It is recommended to buy call options and bull spreads for mid - cap growth and science - innovation styles, and observe the subsequent fluctuations and volume inflection points for other varieties before switching back to covered calls [2][7]. - In the treasury bond futures market, the bond market sentiment is recovering. However, the market sentiment is still vulnerable to external factors such as stock market fluctuations, and it is necessary to closely monitor the release of subsequent economic data [3][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On Thursday, small - cap stocks outperformed large - cap stocks. The CSI 2000 and CSI 1000 indices led the gains, while the banking, non - banking finance, and non - ferrous metals sectors dragged down the performance of the CSI 300 index. Market volume remained high, showing capital migration [1][7]. - **Suggestions**: Maintain the idea of positive allocation before the Two Sessions and continue to hold IC long - positions [1][7]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **Market Performance**: The underlying market was mainly volatile yesterday. The CSI 500, CSI 1000, and Science and Technology Innovation Index rose, while large - cap varieties declined. Option market trading volume was 11.31 billion yuan, slightly down 2.64% from the previous day. Most implied volatility varieties fluctuated, with the average of the Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF rising significantly [2][7]. - **Suggestions**: Buy call options and bull spreads for mid - cap growth and science - innovation styles, and observe subsequent fluctuations and volume inflection points for other varieties before switching back to covered calls [2][7]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures rose across the board yesterday. The central bank conducted 9.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases and 1.1 trillion yuan of 3 - month repurchase agreements. The inter - bank liquidity was stable and loose, and the DR001 rate rose slightly to around 1.27%. The on - collateralized repurchase trading volume reached a record high of 89 trillion yuan on Wednesday [3][7][8]. - **Suggestions**: For trend strategies, maintain a volatile view; for hedging strategies, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels; for basis strategies, appropriately pay attention to basis widening; for curve strategies, the yield curve may remain steep [9]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - China's December SPGI Services PMI was 52, China's December foreign exchange reserves were 3.358 trillion US dollars, the US December ADP employment change was 4.1 million, the Eurozone November unemployment rate was 6.3%, and the Eurozone December economic sentiment index was 96.7. There are still data such as China's December CPI and PPI annual rates, US December non - farm payrolls, and the initial value of the US January University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index to be released [10]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - Geopolitics: On January 7, local time, US President Trump signed a presidential memorandum instructing the US to withdraw from 66 international organizations [11]. - Artificial Intelligence: The Chinese government supports enterprises in conducting cross - border business and international technological cooperation in accordance with laws and regulations. The Ministry of Commerce will evaluate and investigate the consistency of Meta's acquisition of the artificial intelligence platform Manus with relevant laws and regulations [11]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - **Stock Index Futures Data**: Details of basis, spreads between contracts, and total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM are provided, but specific data summaries are not further elaborated in this output [7]. - **Stock Index Options Data**: Not elaborated in the given text. - **Treasury Bond Futures Data**: Information on trading volume, positions, inter - period spreads, inter - variety spreads, and basis of T, TF, TS, and TL is provided, but specific data summaries are not further elaborated in this output [7].