Group 1: Government Bond Issuance Overview - This week, the net financing scale of government bonds was 267 billion yuan, a decrease of 3383 billion yuan compared to the previous week. Next week, the planned net financing is -5102 billion yuan [11] - As of December 7, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 102.2%, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 92.9%, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 100.8%, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 92.7%, and the progress of treasury bond net financing + new local bond issuance was 96.2% [3][17][8][12] Group 2: Special Bond Issuance - This week, the issuance of new special bonds was 39 billion yuan, a decrease of 186.2 billion yuan compared to the previous week. As of December 7, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in December was 39 billion yuan. Next week, the planned issuance is 50.1 billion yuan [3] Group 3: General Bond Issuance - This week, the issuance of new general bonds was 11.4 billion yuan, an increase of 2.6 billion yuan compared to the previous week. As of December 7, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in December was 11.4 billion yuan. Next week, the planned issuance is 21 billion yuan [18] Group 4: Treasury Bond Issuance - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was -33.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 72.9 billion yuan compared to the previous week. Next week, the planned net financing is -572.4 billion yuan (750 billion yuan of special treasury bonds are due, and the roll - over should be noted) [8] Group 5: Local Bond Issuance - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was 60.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 265.4 billion yuan compared to the previous week. Next week, the planned net financing is 62.3 billion yuan [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides an in - depth introduction to the LME copper futures rules, including background, trading rules, and delivery rules, aiming to help investors understand and participate in LME copper futures trading [12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 01 Background Introduction - **LME Introduction**: The London Metal Exchange is the world's industrial metal trading center, a wholly - owned subsidiary of HKEX. It trades metals such as copper, aluminum, etc., and its prices and inventories significantly impact global non - ferrous metal production and sales [18]. - **LME Copper Contract**: The copper contract has a code of CA, a unit of 25 tons, and is quoted in US dollars per ton. It has various contract months, with physical delivery. The trading time varies, and the last trading day ends at the first - round trading before the expiration date. The delivery currency includes the US dollar, yen, etc., and the delivery standard is A - grade copper [20]. - **Importance of Copper and LME's Role**: Copper is crucial for electrical systems and green technologies. LME copper futures have good liquidity and market depth, with a trading term up to 10 years. It enables precise hedging and uses the official LME price as the global benchmark [21]. 02 Trading Rules - **Contract Types**: There are daily contracts (for within 3 months, with delivery on each London weekday), weekly contracts (for 4 - 6 months, with delivery on Wednesdays), and monthly contracts (for 7 months and above, with delivery on the third Wednesday of each month) [24]. - **Trading Types**: There are three trading types: ring trading (an open - outcry, in - person trading method for specific contracts), telephone trading (24 - hour off - exchange trading), and electronic trading (LME Select, allowing trading of standard 3M contracts from 08:00 - 02:00 (Beijing time), winter time + 1) [26]. - **Swap Business**: Swap means adjusting two contracts with different maturity dates to the same date. It includes borrowing (buying near - term contracts and selling far - term contracts) and lending (selling near - term contracts and buying far - term contracts). Swap results in premiums or discounts based on market supply and demand. The fee rules depend on the time of the swap [30]. 03 Delivery Rules - **Buying Delivery (Taking Delivery)**: - **Pre - delivery Preparation**: Determine delivery requirements, establish long futures positions, prepare funds, and match special requirements if necessary [37]. - **Delivery Execution**: It involves multiple steps such as expressing delivery intention, confirming funds, receiving and allocating or exchanging warehouse receipts, and transferring funds. After that, manage warehouse receipts, receive delivery receipts, and arrange for the pick - up of goods [40]. - **Selling Delivery (Delivering to the Warehouse)**: - **Pre - delivery Preparation**: Confirm the compliance of goods, establish short futures positions, store goods in approved warehouses and register warehouse receipts, and submit delivery intentions [47]. - **Delivery Execution**: Submit registered warehouse receipts, have the clearinghouse verify and lock short positions, receive payment from the exchange, transfer warehouse receipt ownership, receive settlement vouchers, settle fees, and plan for follow - up operations [50]. - **Precautions**: The delivery price is based on the LME delivery settlement price, with additional premiums for the specified - goods mode. Warehouse receipts need to be legally transferred through the clearinghouse. Delivery fees should be confirmed in advance, and swap operations can be used to postpone delivery time if necessary [58]. - **Delivery Warehouses**: LME has over 450 approved delivery warehouses in 34 locations globally. Asian warehouses are mainly in South Korea, Malaysia, etc. In Hong Kong, there are 8 approved delivery warehouses as of December 2025 [66]. - **Position Limits**: Different LME metal futures and options have corresponding default position limits, such as 100 lots for copper futures (CA - F) and 50 lots for copper options (CA - O) [70].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-12-05 沙特下调1⽉对亚洲的OSP价格，原油 震荡化⼯偏弱 俄乌谈判进展缓慢，原油价格延续震荡整理。当前乌克兰谈判代表将 在佛罗里达州举行新一轮会谈，而俄罗斯总统普京表示，美国支持的和平 计划中部分内容"不可接受"，这一最新信号表明短期内冲突结束的可能 性极低。同时，特朗普再次重申，"很快"将开始在委内瑞拉境内打击贩 毒集团，美军已在该地区集结兵力。原油中期格局趋弱，短期受到地缘不 确定性的支撑，仍将延续震荡整理。未来的变量可能在于俄乌谈判的达 成，或者是俄罗斯贴水持续回落后买盘的回归。沙特下调了1月对亚洲的O SP价格，该举措通常被认为是对需求偏弱的确认或是抢占市场份额。 板块逻辑： 美国天然气期货价格在周三升至35个月高位，LNG出口工厂的流入量 创下纪录高位，且天气预报显示气温将下降，天然气的上涨带动了乙烷价 格的走高。乙烷是乙烯和乙二醇的重要原料，乙烷的走高，乙烯和乙二醇 价格的走弱，当前乙烷裂解的利润快速下滑，这有可能影响后期美国乙二 醇的生产。美国是排在沙特后面的第二大乙二醇出口国，占全球乙二醇出 口比例 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, gold oscillates, and silver adjusts at a high level. The short - term fluctuations of precious metals are mainly affected by the silver capital side. In the long - term, the narrative of the contraction of the US dollar credit will continue to drive the upward trend of precious metals [3][5]. - The logical environment is generally favorable for the rise of precious metals this month. The expectation of loose liquidity is the core driver, and the nomination of the Fed Chairman is the key concern. The squeeze trading in silver may still be repeated this month [5]. - Looking ahead, the range of spot gold in London this week is expected to be between $4000 and $4400 per ounce, and that of spot silver in London is expected to be between $53 and $60 per ounce [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Key Information - US initial jobless claims last week were 191,000, with an expected 220,000. The four - week average was 214,750. Continuing jobless claims for the week ending November 22 were 1.939 million, with an expected 1.961 million. The current application level is consistent with historically low lay - offs, which may ease market concerns about a sharp deterioration in the labor market [4]. - The number of Challenger corporate lay - offs in the US in November was 71,321, a 53.4% decrease from the previous value. Year - on - year, it increased by 23.5% [4]. - The Chicago Fed expects the US unemployment rate in November to remain stable at around 4.4% [4]. 3.2 Price Logic - On Thursday, gold oscillated, and silver adjusted at a high level. Attention should be paid to the support at the previously broken level of $53 - $54. The US weekly initial and continuing jobless claims announced on the day conformed to seasonal patterns and had a low impact on the market [3][5]. - This month, the expectation of loose liquidity is the core driver, and the nomination of the Fed Chairman is the key concern. The relatively dovish candidate Hassett has the highest popularity. The period from nomination to taking office may be the smoothest time for trading on the expectation of loose liquidity and the independence of the Fed [5]. - The spot lease rate of London silver remains at a relatively high level, and the squeeze trading is spreading from London to Asia and the US, which may still be repeated this month [5]. 3.3 Market Indexes - **Commodity Indexes**: The comprehensive index shows that the commodity index is 2272.72 (+0.11%), the commodity 20 index is 2593.02 (+0.20%), and the industrial products index is 2228.63 (+0.41%) [45]. - **Precious Metals Index**: On December 4, 2025, the precious metals index was 3485.92, with a daily decline of 0.59%, a 5 - day increase of 1.61%, a 1 - month increase of 7.61%, and a year - to - date increase of 57.56% [46]. - **PPI Commodity Index**: The PPI commodity index is 1371.00 (+0.78%) [46].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [7] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - environment is warm with the upcoming December Central Economic Work Conference and overseas interest - rate cut expectations. Steel products are in the off - season but continue to reduce inventory, with a firm performance on the futures market. Iron ore is under pressure due to the expected seasonal decline in hot metal. Coal and coke have rebounded from low levels on the futures market, while glass and soda ash are suppressed by oversupply [1][2]. - Overall, the off - season fundamentals have limited highlights. There is a possibility of positive news from the macro and policy fronts, and the futures market may have phased upward opportunities due to improved macro - sentiment [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Hot metal production has decreased significantly, downstream demand has declined, and steel mills are undergoing annual maintenance. Although the profitability rate of steel mills has slightly improved, the release of restocking demand is still slow. Overseas mine shipments have slightly increased month - on - month, with a decrease in Australian shipments, a significant increase in Brazilian shipments, and a slight decrease in non - mainstream shipments. The current arrival volume has decreased month - on - month, and port inventories have continued to accumulate. The rigid demand support is gradually weakening, and the release of restocking demand is slow. With macro expectations ahead of important meetings, short - term ore prices are expected to oscillate. The supply and demand of scrap steel have both decreased, but its cost - effectiveness has recovered after the spot price decline. The profits of electric furnaces are acceptable, and the demand for scrap steel from long - and short - process steel enterprises is still supported, with limited downward space. Scrap steel prices are expected to oscillate [2]. 2. Carbon Element - **Coke**: Coke supply continues to increase, while steel mill开工 has declined seasonally. Coke supply and demand are slightly loose. With the continuous weakening of spot cost support, there are still 1 - 2 rounds of supplementary price cuts expected, but due to the subsequent winter restocking expectations for raw materials, the possibility of multiple consecutive rounds of price cuts is low. The futures market is expected to follow coking coal and oscillate [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The current valuation level of coking coal on the futures market is still low. The low - production state of domestic coal mines will continue, and the subsequent winter restocking expectations of the middle and lower reaches are strong. There is still support at the bottom of the spot price. The near - month contracts may remain oscillating due to delivery, while the far - month contracts are less affected and are expected to oscillate with an upward trend [3]. 3. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The increase in manganese silicon costs supports the price, but the market supply - demand situation remains loose. Further upward movement of the futures price will face spot warehouse receipt selling pressure, and caution is needed regarding the extent of further price increases [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The strong cost trend supports the bottom of the silicon iron price, but the market situation of weak supply and demand continues. Further upward movement of the futures price may face warehouse receipt selling pressure, and caution is needed regarding the upside potential of the main contract futures price [3]. 4. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still expectations of supply disruptions, but the inventories of middle and downstream enterprises are moderately high. Currently, supply and demand are still in an oversupply situation. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, high inventories will always suppress prices, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Otherwise, prices may rise [3][14]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash industry price is close to the cost, with obvious bottom support. Recently, the cold - repair of glass has increased further, but the overall supply and demand are still in an oversupply situation. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the oversupply pattern will intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [3][18]. 5. Individual Product Analysis - **Steel Products**: The demand has declined month - on - month. The overall spot market transactions are average. As the end of the year approaches, steel mill maintenance has increased, and hot metal production has continued to decline. Steel production has decreased from a high level, especially the production of rebar. The funds available for domestic construction sites have weakened month - on - month, and the demand for building materials has weakened significantly. Steel inventories continue to decline, but the current inventory level is still higher than the same period last year. With the weakening demand, the speed of inventory reduction is difficult to accelerate. The third - round and fifth - batch central ecological and environmental protection inspection teams have reported some typical environmental problems in Tianjin and Hebei, but the impact on the production of northern steel mills is limited. The profitability rate of steel mills has improved this week, and it is expected that steel production will not decline significantly in the future. With the upcoming December Central Economic Work Conference and overseas interest - rate cut expectations, the macro - environment is warm, and the futures market has the driving force to rebound from low levels, but the upside space is limited due to poor fundamentals [8]. - **Scrap Steel**: The arrival volume and daily consumption of scrap steel have decreased, and steel mill restocking has slowed down. The supply and demand of scrap steel have both decreased, but its cost - effectiveness has recovered after the spot price decline. The profits of electric furnaces are acceptable, and the demand for scrap steel from long - and short - process steel enterprises is still supported, with limited downward space. Scrap steel prices are expected to oscillate [11]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The futures price of the main contract has oscillated strongly due to the warm trend of the black sector and the significant increase in manganese ore port quotations, which has strengthened the cost support for manganese silicon. The cost of manganese silicon has gradually increased, but the market supply - demand situation remains loose, and caution is needed regarding the extent of further price increases [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price of the main contract has risen due to the strong trend of black chain varieties and the increase in settlement electricity prices in Ningxia and Qinghai, which has strengthened the cost support and production - reduction expectations for silicon iron. The cost trend is strong, but the market situation of weak supply and demand continues. Caution is needed regarding the upside potential of the main contract futures price [21].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-12-05 股市盘⾯缩量，债市情绪悲观 股指期货：盘⾯缩量，压制微盘。 股指期权：结构分化，防御为主。 国债期货：TL年内新低。 股指期货方面，盘面缩量，压制微盘。周四盘面现止跌迹象，主要指 数收红，科创板及创业板领涨，全天来看，市场量能降至1.5万亿的水 平，缩量趋势明显，在此背景之下，近期资金被抽离的小微盘指数表现弱 势，市场向大市值个股集中。同时，股指期货在周三大幅增仓之后，周四 呈明显减仓趋势，显示前期对冲避险的资金有离场的迹象，隐含恐慌情绪 消散。另外，若比较沪深300指数与IF当季年化基差率的走势，近期呈现 负相关，即在反弹之后，期货市场资金更倾向高抛低吸，而非追涨杀跌， 故上攻空间短期有限。 股指期权方面，结构分化，防御为主。周四标的市场整体企稳，金融 期权成交量较前一日小幅收缩。情绪方面，偏度、持仓量PCR等指标边际 信息有限，成交量PCR较周三明显回落，各品种隐波下沉为主，反映期权 市场担忧改善。展望后市，12月市场上行驱动不足，预计震荡分化格局下 隐波易升难降，波动率卖方策略需低仓位谨慎配置，或叠加 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Overall, the macro - environment in the fourth quarter is still friendly to risk assets. It is recommended that investors maintain a balanced allocation, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals, and wait for opportunities to increase positions in stock indices on dips [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overseas and Domestic Macroeconomic Situation - **Overseas Macro**: US "Black Friday" and "Cyber Monday" online sales reached record highs, but consumers preferred daily necessities and more people borrowed short - term debt for shopping. The weak demand dragged down the US ISM manufacturing PMI in November. Dollar liquidity is becoming the main line of major assets in the next quarter, and the market expects the Fed to discuss balance - sheet expansion around December to ease liquidity constraints [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: In October, the profit margin of industrial enterprises continued to be under pressure due to weak domestic demand. However, policy - based financial instruments and special bonds promoted the significant recovery of enterprise investment and recruitment forward - looking indicators. In November, the manufacturing PMI rebounded, and both supply and demand improved marginally. The construction business activity index also increased. The domestic economy maintains a weak and stable pattern, and the guiding role of policies on expectations is strengthening [6]. 3.2 Asset Views - The overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged. It is recommended to maintain long - position opportunities in stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals, and wait for opportunities to increase positions in stock indices on dips [6]. 3.3 View Highlights 3.3.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The trading volume cannot support an upward attack, and the short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to the situation of incremental funds [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The market sentiment is stable, and the volatility is somewhat differentiated. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the liquidity of the options market [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The sentiment at the long end is still weak. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to the implementation of monetary policies [7]. 3.3.2 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold/Silver**: Geopolitical and trade tensions have eased, and precious metals are in a phased adjustment. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the US fundamentals, Fed monetary policies, and the global equity market trend [7]. 3.3.3 Shipping Sector - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is a lack of upward driving force due to loading pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the rate of freight decline in September [7]. 3.3.4 Black Building Materials Sector - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the price fluctuates. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to policy - level dynamics [7]. - **Steel**: The demand is under pressure in the off - season, and the price on the futures market has limited upward momentum. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the issuance progress of special bonds, steel exports, iron - water production, and other factors [7]. - **Coke**: The supply - demand situation is slightly loose, and the price is still under pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply remains at a low level, and coal mines continue to accumulate inventory. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment [7]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: The supply and demand are both weak, and there is limited upward momentum. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to raw material costs and steel tendering [7]. - **Manganese Ferroalloy**: The cost transfer is not smooth, and inventory accumulates. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to cost prices and foreign quotes [7]. - **Glass**: The demand is still weak, and supply needs to be reduced. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to spot sales [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply remains at a low level, and there is still an oversupply. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to soda ash inventory [7]. 3.3.5 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector - **Copper**: The expectation of Fed rate cuts is fluctuating, and the copper price is consolidating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to supply disruptions, domestic policies, Fed policies, and domestic demand recovery [7]. - **Alumina**: The oversupply situation has not improved significantly, and the alumina price continues to be under pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to ore复产 and electrolytic aluminum复产 [7]. - **Aluminum**: The macro - sentiment is fluctuating, and the aluminum price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to macro - risks, supply disruptions, and demand [7]. - **Zinc**: The export window is open, and the zinc price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to macro - risks and zinc ore supply [7]. - **Lead**: The delivery of LME lead has slowed down, and the lead price may gradually stop falling. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to supply disruptions and battery exports [7]. - **Nickel**: There are environmental disturbances in Indonesian MHP production enterprises, and the nickel price fluctuates. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend. Attention should be paid to macro - and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policies, and supply [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: Driven by the rebound of the nickel price, the stainless - steel futures market has recovered. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and demand growth [7]. - **Tin**: The market sentiment has warmed up, and the tin price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to the复产 expectation in Wa State and demand improvement [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The oversupply pressure remains, and the silicon price fluctuates. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to supply - side复产 and policy changes [7]. - **Polysilicon**: Policy expectations are fluctuating, and polysilicon is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to supply - side复产 and domestic photovoltaic policies [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Driven by demand expectations, the lithium price has strengthened again. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [7]. 3.3.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical premium is fluctuating, and the supply pressure continues. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation [9]. - **LPG**: The import cost has rebounded, and the spot support continues. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane [9]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price is recovering towards the spot price after an oversold situation. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to sanctions and supply disruptions [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil futures price is weakly oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend. Attention should be paid to geopolitics and crude oil prices [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price is weakly oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend. Attention should be paid to crude oil prices [9]. - **Methanol**: The expected coastal unloading is high, and the inland supply - demand provides phased support. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to macro - energy and overseas actual shutdown dynamics [9]. - **Urea**: The off - season storage is progressing steadily, and the futures market is oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to enterprise inventory de - stocking and commercial storage progress [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The domestic supply - demand pattern has not significantly weakened, but expectations are suppressing sentiment. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to coal and oil price fluctuations, port inventory rhythm, and device disturbances [9]. - **PX**: The short - term cost guidance is limited, and PX has a strong profit under its independent logic. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to crude oil fluctuations, macro - changes, and US - Asia aromatics blending for oil [9]. - **PTA**: The market lacks new drivers and follows cost fluctuations. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to crude oil fluctuations, macro - changes, and downstream polyester load support [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: The upstream cost provides support, but the off - season demand cannot change the short - fiber game pattern. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to downstream yarn factory purchasing rhythm and season conversion [9]. - **Bottle Chip**: The price volatility has narrowed, and the trading atmosphere has slightly declined. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to bottle - chip enterprise production - reduction target implementation and new device commissioning [9]. - **Propylene**: The spot is strong, and PL is oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to oil prices and the domestic macro - situation [9]. - **PP**: The oil price has rebounded, and PP still needs to pay attention to maintenance changes. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and foreign macro - situations [9]. - **Plastic**: The maintenance support is limited, and plastic is oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and foreign macro - situations [9]. - **Styrene**: The liquidity is slightly tight, and styrene is oscillating strongly. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [9]. - **PVC**: With low valuation and weak expectations, PVC is cautiously weak. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to expectations, costs, and supply [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: The inventory continues to accumulate, and caustic soda is weakly oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend. Attention should be paid to market sentiment, production, and demand [9]. 3.3.7 Agricultural Sector - **Oils and Fats**: The downward pressure is increasing. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [9]. - **Protein Meal**: The discount of South American soybeans is cost - effective, and attention should be paid to Chinese ship - buying. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to weather, domestic demand, macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: The supply - demand game intensifies, and the futures price hits a new high. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend. Attention should be paid to demand, macro - situation, and weather [9]. - **Pigs**: The supply - demand is loose, and the pig price is running weakly. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend. Attention should be paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [9]. - **Natural Rubber**: The downstream buying is light, and the futures market is weak. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to production area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: There is insufficient bullish driving force in the futures market. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to crude oil fluctuations [9]. - **Cotton**: The concentrated listing of new cotton suppresses the short - term price, but the long - term valuation repair is still expected. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to production and demand [9]. - **Sugar**: The downward pressure is increasing marginally. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend. Attention should be paid to imports and Northern Hemisphere production [9]. - **Pulp**: Driven by shutdown news, the pulp price continues to rise but maintains a wide - range oscillation. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to macro - economic changes and US dollar - denominated price fluctuations [9]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: The spot price is stable, and the futures market is oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to production and sales, education policies, and paper mill production dynamics [9]. - **Log**: New Zealand has entered a reduced - shipping stage, and the medium - term supply pressure may ease. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to shipping volume and delivery volume [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall investment rating for the industry. However, it offers individual outlooks for various agricultural products: - **Corn/Starch**: Oscillating upward [1][7][9] - **Oils & Fats**: Oscillating [5] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [6] - **Hogs**: Oscillating downward [9] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [10][11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [12] - **Cotton**: Oscillating upward in the long - term, with short - term pressure [12] - **Sugar**: Oscillating downward in the medium - long term, with short - term support at 5300 yuan/ton [13] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [14] - **Double - Glued Paper**: First rising then falling in December [15] - **Logs**: Oscillating, with potential for a rebound from oversold levels [18] 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes multiple agricultural products, highlighting the complex supply - demand dynamics and market factors influencing each. For example, corn prices are driven by low northern port inventories, while hog prices are pressured by high supply in the short - to - medium term and may see relief in the long term. Each product's price trend is affected by unique factors such as weather, policy, trade, and consumption patterns [1][5][6][8][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils & Fats - **Viewpoint**: Pressure for a decline is increasing [5] - **Logic**: Weakness in US soybean futures due to lack of sales information and expected South American soybean harvest. High domestic soybean inventory and slow de - stocking of soybean oil. Mixed production and export data for palm oil, with expected seasonal decline in Indian imports. Tight domestic rapeseed supply currently but expected increase in the future [5] - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to oscillate [5] 3.2 Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: The discount of South American soybeans makes them cost - effective; attention should be paid to Chinese soybean purchases [6] - **Logic**: International soybean trade price differentials show a significant drop in South American soybean premiums. China is fulfilling its soybean purchase obligations from the US. Brazilian soybean export and production estimates are available. South American climate is crucial for CBOT soybean prices. Domestically, high soybean inventory, slow seasonal de - stocking of soybean meal, and various factors influencing different contract prices [6] - **Outlook**: US soybeans and Dalian soybean meal are both expected to oscillate [6] 3.3 Corn/Starch - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand game intensifies, and the futures price hits a new high [1][7][8] - **Logic**: Low northern port inventories, policy support, and high - quality grain shortages are the main drivers. Regional differences in corn quality and price lead to increased demand for Northeast corn. Short - term concentrated demand from traders and logistical issues also affect prices. In the short term, the uptrend continues, while in the medium term, it depends on inventory release and downstream demand relief [1][8] - **Outlook**: Oscillating upward. Short - term wait - and - see, with the spot price expected to continue the upward - oscillating trend [1][9] 3.4 Hogs - **Viewpoint**: Sufficient supply, and hog prices are oscillating at a low level [9] - **Logic**: Short - to - medium - term high supply due to previous high sow capacity. Long - term supply pressure may ease as sow capacity declines. Insufficient demand from sporadic southern pickling activities. Increasing average slaughter weight [9] - **Outlook**: Oscillating downward. Near - term contracts are weak, while far - term contracts are supported by capacity reduction expectations [9] 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Weak downstream buying, and the futures price shows a weak performance [10][11] - **Logic**: Overall lack of strong driving forces. Weak downstream buying and limited impact from the previous Thai floods. Seasonal increase in overseas supply, with raw material prices providing some support but facing downward pressure. Stable demand in the short term [11] - **Outlook**: Expected to continue oscillating, with no clear trend [11] 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Insufficient upward - driving factors in the futures market [12] - **Logic**: The hype about butadiene export news has subsided. Stable butadiene trading, and limited downward space for natural rubber prices. Butadiene prices have rebounded after a decline, with improved trading volume but some resistance at high prices [12] - **Outlook**: No upward - driving force, supported by natural rubber prices, and expected to oscillate in a range [12] 3.7 Cotton - **Viewpoint**: Short - term price increase is limited by the concentrated listing of new cotton, but long - term valuation repair is expected [12] - **Logic**: On the supply side, new cotton is being listed in large quantities, with higher production expected. On the demand side, it is entering the off - season but still shows resilience. Commercial inventory is accumulating but is lower than last year. Cost - line, warehouse - receipt speculation, and better - than - expected de - stocking support the price, but also increase hedging pressure [12] - **Outlook**: In the short term, pay attention to the pressure at 13,800 - 14,000 yuan/ton. In the long term, it is expected to oscillate upward, and buying on dips is recommended [12] 3.8 Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The downward pressure is increasing marginally [13] - **Logic**: In the medium - long term, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 and 26/27 seasons. The new northern hemisphere sugar - making season has started, and the increase in supply will gradually put downward pressure on prices. The domestic 01 contract is oscillating around 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton, with 5300 yuan/ton providing support [13] - **Outlook**: Oscillating downward in the medium - long term, with short - term support at 5300 yuan/ton. The strategy is to short on rallies [13] 3.9 Pulp - **Viewpoint**: Pulp prices continue to rise, and the spot market has strengthened significantly [13][14] - **Logic**: The rally is driven by the release of negative sentiment after continuous price drops, overseas pulp mill shutdown news, and short - covering. There is some support for pulp prices in the short term, but the fundamental situation has not changed significantly. The supply - demand situation for softwood and hardwood pulp continues to diverge [14] - **Outlook**: Oscillating. The futures market will mainly oscillate in a wide range due to the issue of warehouse receipts [14] 3.10 Double - Glued Paper - **Viewpoint**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is oscillating [15] - **Logic**: The supply side has limited changes, and dealers are cautious about stocking. Publishing orders have not been fully picked up, and downstream printing factories have weak orders. The price of some high - white double - glued paper has increased, while the price of some white double - glued paper has decreased. The overall price increase is limited by high inventory and the need for dealers to raise funds [15] - **Outlook**: Prices will be supported by publishing house pick - up in December, but there will be medium - term pressure. The market is expected to first rise and then fall [15] 3.11 Logs - **Viewpoint**: New Zealand has entered a phase of reduced shipments, and medium - term supply pressure may ease [18] - **Logic**: The futures price of logs has been low, and the market supply - demand pattern is loose. New Zealand's shipments are expected to decrease from December to January, and the pressure on arrivals in the first quarter will ease. The short - term fundamentals in the domestic market are stable, and the 01 contract has no clear upward or downward driving force. The 03 contract may perform better due to the peak season and expected replenishment after the Spring Festival [18] - **Outlook**: The supply side will remain loose, but due to the low valuation, there is limited downward space. Attention should be paid to the opportunity for a rebound from oversold levels [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, with positive macro - expectations and concerns about supply disruptions, base metals prices rose significantly this week. Consumption has been somewhat suppressed, which may limit the upside potential of prices. One can cautiously consider low - buying and long - holding opportunities for copper, aluminum, and tin. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruption issues for copper, aluminum, and tin remain. The supply - demand situation is expected to tighten, and the prices of these metals are optimistic. [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **View**: The increase in LME cancelled warrants indicates that copper prices will fluctuate strongly. - **Information Analysis**: - Codelco is significantly raising the annual premium for refined copper sold to Chinese customers, with premiums of $350/ton or $335/ton above the LME price. [7] - The CSPT has reached a consensus to reduce the capacity utilization of copper ore by over 10% in 2026, and take other measures to improve the supply - demand fundamentals. [7] - In November, SMM's China electrolytic copper production increased by 11,500 tons month - on - month and 9.75% year - on - year, with a cumulative increase of 11.76% from January to November. [7] - On December 4, the spot price of 1 electrolytic copper had an average premium of 170 yuan/ton over the 2601 contract, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. [8] - As of December 4, SMM's copper inventory in major regions decreased to 158,900 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from the previous value. [8] - **Main Logic**: The expectation of a Fed rate cut is rising. Copper supply disruptions are increasing, and the CSPT will reduce production in 2026. The cost of scrap copper recycling has increased, leading to reduced production in some smelters. Although demand is weak, the spot is at a premium, and the increase in LME cancelled warrants is boosting prices. [9] - **Outlook**: Copper supply constraints remain, and supply disruptions continue to increase. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. [9] Alumina - **View**: The oversupply situation has not improved significantly, and alumina prices continue to be under pressure. - **Information Analysis**: - On December 4, alumina prices in various regions showed different degrees of decline or remained flat. [10] - The freight of Cape - type ships on the Guinea - to - China route has been rising, and the market sentiment and fundamentals provide dual support. [10] - On December 4, the alumina warehouse receipt was 253,320 tons, a net increase of 3,006 tons. [10] - **Main Logic**: Macroeconomic sentiment amplifies price fluctuations. High - cost production capacity has fluctuations, but the supply reduction needs further observation. The domestic inventory is still increasing, and raw material prices are weak. However, as the valuation is in the low - range, price fluctuations may increase. [12] - **Outlook**: The current supply - demand situation is in surplus, but the valuation is low. Alumina prices are expected to remain volatile. [12] Aluminum - **View**: With the repeated macro - sentiment, aluminum prices fluctuate and rebound. - **Information Analysis**: - On December 4, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum was 22,020 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the premium was - 60 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. [13] - On December 4, the aluminum rod inventory in major domestic consumption areas decreased, while the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory remained unchanged. The SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt remained unchanged. [13] - The Eurasian Economic Commission will impose anti - dumping duties on Chinese aluminum foil products, with rates ranging from 17.16% to 20.24%. [13] - An Indonesian aluminum plant will start trial operation in mid - December, planning to reach full - capacity production of 500,000 tons in October 2026 and expand to 1.5 million tons in the long term. Another Indonesian electrolytic aluminum project has started production and will reach full - capacity production of the first - phase 500,000 tons in October 2026. [14] - **Main Logic**: The expectation of a rate cut is rising, and the domestic economic data is weakly stable. The domestic production capacity and operating rate are high, while the overseas power shortage risk is emerging. Terminal demand is stable, and inventory is decreasing. [14] - **Outlook**: In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. In the medium term, with limited supply growth and resilient demand, the center of aluminum prices is expected to rise. [14] Aluminum Alloy - **View**: Warehouse receipts continue to rise, and the market fluctuates at a high level. - **Information Analysis**: - On December 4, the price of Baotai ADC12 was 21,100 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton. The price difference between Baotai ADC12 and AOO aluminum was - 920 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. [17] - On December 4, the SHFE registered warehouse receipt was 66,164 tons, a net increase of 1,607 tons. [17] - In October, China's scrap aluminum imports were about 155,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19%. The main import sources were Thailand, the UK, Japan, and the US. [16] - **Main Logic**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, providing strong cost support. The weekly operating rate has rebounded, but some alloy factories face production reduction risks. Demand is marginally improving, and social and warehouse receipt inventories are rising. [16] - **Outlook**: In the short and medium terms, with strong cost support and stable supply - demand, prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. [16][18] Zinc - **View**: With the decline of social inventory, zinc prices will rebound in the short term. - **Information Analysis**: - On December 4, the premiums of Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin 0 zinc against the main contract were 70 yuan/ton, - 40 yuan/ton, and - 50 yuan/ton respectively. [19] - As of December 4, the total inventory of SMM's seven - region zinc ingots was 140,300 tons, a decrease of 7,800 tons from the previous Thursday. [19] - On October 1, 29Metals' mine in Western Australia had a new earthquake, delaying the high - grade zinc ore mining and withdrawing the annual zinc production guidance. [19] - **Main Logic**: The Fed's dovish stance and weak economic data have increased the expectation of a December rate cut. The short - term zinc ore supply is loose, and smelting profits are good. The domestic consumption is in the off - season, and demand is average. The domestic zinc ingot inventory may stop accumulating, and LME inventory has rebounded. [19] - **Outlook**: In December, zinc production is slightly down month - on - month but high year - on - year. The demand is entering the off - season, but the export window is open, and inventory may decline. Zinc prices are expected to be volatile. [19] Lead - **View**: With the reduction of social inventory, lead prices may continue to rebound. - **Information Analysis**: - On December 4, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,875 yuan/ton, and the price difference between primary and secondary lead was 25 yuan/ton. [20] - On December 4, the average price of SMM1 lead ingot was 17,100 yuan, up 25 yuan, and the lead ingot premium was 25 yuan/ton. [20] - As of December 4, 2025, the domestic lead ingot social inventory was 23,600 tons, a decrease of 11,400 tons from the previous Thursday, and the SHFE lead warehouse receipt was 16,553 tons, a decrease of 76 tons. [20] - Some primary lead smelters are under maintenance, and the supply of deliverable brands is limited. Some downstream enterprises prefer to use lead ingots in social warehouses, leading to a significant reduction in social inventory. However, the smelter's factory inventory has increased, and there is a possibility of inventory transfer for delivery. [20] - **Main Logic**: The spot premium and the price difference between primary and secondary lead are stable, and the futures warehouse receipt is slightly down. The profit of secondary lead smelting has increased slightly, and the weekly lead ingot production has decreased. The demand for electric bicycles is slightly weak, but the demand for automobile batteries has improved, and the operating rate of lead - acid battery factories is high. [20] - **Outlook**: Due to the maintenance of smelters, lead production is difficult to increase significantly. In December, the demand for lead ingots remains high, and the inventory will remain low. The previous negative factors suppressing lead prices have been digested, and lead prices are expected to stabilize and rebound. [21] Nickel - **View**: With the overall strength of non - ferrous metals, nickel prices fluctuate accordingly. - **Information Analysis**: - On December 4, the LME nickel inventory was 25.3116 tons, an increase of 126 tons from the previous day, and the SHFE nickel warehouse receipt was 35,096 tons, an increase of 2,501 tons from the previous day. The global visible inventory is increasing. [23] - In 2026, PT Vale Indonesia will focus on three HPAL projects with a total investment of about $9 billion. The three smelters are expected to be completed successively from the third quarter of 2026. [23] - On November 29, GEM stated that its Qingmeibang nickel resource project is operating normally, and the production plan for December is normal. [24] - On November 27, BC Jindal Group and Hindustan Power won contracts for renewable energy projects. [24] - **Main Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market, and the static valuation is stable. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. The ore supply is relatively loose. The production of intermediate products has recovered, and the price of nickel salts has slightly decreased. The market is in excess supply, and the inventory has accumulated significantly. [24] - **Outlook**: In the short term, nickel prices will fluctuate with non - ferrous metals. In the long - term, the Indonesian nickel ore policy needs further observation. [25] Stainless Steel - **View**: With the slight decline of nickel - iron prices, the stainless - steel market fluctuates. - **Information Analysis**: - The latest stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt inventory was 62,157 tons, a decrease of 180 tons from the previous day. [26] - On December 4, the spot premium of Foshan Hongwang 304 stainless steel against the main contract was 225 yuan/ton. [26] - On December 4, the average price of SMM10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was 881 yuan/nickel point, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/nickel point from the previous day. [26] - The Indonesian government is promoting the use of dry - stacking tailings technology for HPAL tailings. [27] - On November 29, GEM stated that its Qingmeibang nickel resource project is operating normally, and the production plan for December is normal. [27] - **Main Logic**: The prices of nickel - iron and chromium are falling, weakening the cost support for steel prices. After the peak season, stainless - steel production decreased in November, and downstream demand is weak. The social inventory has increased during the off - season, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation. [27][28] - **Outlook**: The current fundamentals suppress prices, but considering the long - term suppression of industrial chain profits and ore - end support, stainless - steel prices are expected to remain range - bound. [28] Tin - **View**: With continued supply concerns, tin prices continue to strengthen. - **Information Analysis**: - On December 4, the LME tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 50 tons to 3,195 tons, the SHFE tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 185 tons to 6,576 tons, and the SHFE tin open interest increased by 4,211 lots to 107,697 lots. [28] - On December 4, the average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's 1 tin ingot was 317,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 8,300 yuan/ton from the previous day. [28] - **Main Logic**: The supply of tin is the core concern. The复产 progress of the Wa State's mining area is slow, Indonesian tin exports are restricted, and African tin production is limited. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the production of refined tin is difficult to increase. The demand for tin is expected to continue to grow due to the global economic situation and the development of related industries. [29] - **Outlook**: With continuous supply disruptions, tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. [29] Market Index - On December 4, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures showed that the commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial products index, and PPI commodity index all increased, with increases of 0.11%, 0.20%, 0.41%, and 0.78% respectively. The non - ferrous metals index increased by 1.02% on the day, 2.39% in the past 5 days, 2.50% in the past month, and 10.12% since the beginning of the year. [157][158]

12月4日,国债期货盘中集体下跌,截至收盘,T、TF、TS、TL主力合约分别下跌0.35%、0.24%、0.05%、1.04%。同 时，现券端表现也偏弱,25特6利率日内上行4.0BP来到2.2760%,5年、7年、10年国债活跃券利率日内上行幅度也超 2BP。 近期国内债市表现持续偏弱的原因在于: 1、政策预期扰动 (1)中信期货 CITIC Futures 异动点评:超长端调整带动债市走弱 | 中信期货研究所 固定收益组 | | 投资咨询业务资格: | | --- | --- | --- | | 研究员 | | 证监许可【2012】669号 | | 程小庆 | 张陆 | 2025年12月4日 甘青 | | 邮箱: chengxiaoqing@citicsf.com 邮箱: zhanglu2@citicsf.com | | 邮箱: ganqing@citicsf.com | | 从业资格号:F3083989 | 从业资格号:F03105230 | 从业资格号:F03124127 | | 投资咨询号:Z0018635 | 投资咨询号: Z0021341 | 投资咨询号: Z0023461 | 事件: 一方面, ...