Group 1: Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [7] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the release of the "Stable Growth Plan for the Building Materials Industry", the "anti - involution" trading sentiment in the market, especially for the glass variety, has intensified. The price of the black building materials sector will continue to be disturbed by the "anti - involution" trading while maintaining oscillations. The downstream replenishment demand represented by furnace materials and the "anti - involution" trading will affect the disk price, and the short - term black building materials sector is expected to oscillate with increased fluctuations [3][4][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Situation of Black Building Materials - **Iron Element**: The demand for iron ore is at a high level, and the inventory in factories has increased, indicating pre - holiday replenishment. The typhoon is expected to affect the weekly arrival, and the short - term fundamentals are healthy, but the poor demand during the building materials peak season limits the upside space of iron ore, with the price expected to oscillate in the short term. The supply and demand of scrap steel have both increased again, and steel enterprises have a demand for pre - holiday replenishment, supporting the spot price, which is expected to oscillate in the short term [4] - **Carbon Element**: The spot coal price has risen sharply, and the profit of coke has continued to shrink due to the increasing cost. Some coke enterprises have started a new round of price increases. The coke inventory of steel mills is moderately high, and the pre - holiday replenishment intensity is decreasing. The game between coke and steel enterprises will continue, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term. The coal mine production is cautious, and the supply recovery is slow, with limited upside potential. The pre - holiday replenishment of the middle and lower reaches can still be maintained in the short term, and the coal price is expected to oscillate strongly before the holiday [4] - **Alloys**: The downstream procurement demand during the peak season still supports the price of ferromanganese silicon, but the market supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and there is still room for the price center to decline after the peak season. The peak - season expectation and strong cost support the price of ferrosilicon, but the supply - demand relationship is becoming looser, and the price still has downward pressure after the peak season [5] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The actual demand for glass is weak. After the release of the "Stable Growth Plan for the Building Materials Industry", there may still be oscillations after the middle - stream inventory reduction. In the long term, market - based capacity reduction is needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to decline oscillatingly. The supply surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed, and it is expected to oscillate widely following macro - changes. In the long term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [5] 2. Analysis of Each Variety - **Steel**: The spot market trading volume is average. The peak - season demand has recovered slightly but is still limited, and the overall demand is weak. Steel mills have limited willingness to reduce production, and the inventory is moderately high. However, with the release of the stable growth plan for the steel and building materials industries, the "anti - involution" sentiment remains, and the macro - environment is warm, so the disk has the driving force to rebound from the low level [9] - **Iron Ore**: The overseas mine shipments have slightly declined, and the arrival volume has increased. The demand is supported by the pre - holiday replenishment, and the inventory level is neutral. The iron ore fundamentals are healthy, but the peak - season demand for rebar needs further verification, limiting the upside space, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [9][10] - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand have both increased, and steel enterprises have a demand for pre - holiday replenishment, supporting the spot price, which is expected to oscillate in the short term [11] - **Coke**: The cost support is strong. Some coke enterprises have started a new round of price increases, but the coke inventory of steel mills is moderately high, and the pre - holiday replenishment intensity is limited. The game between coke and steel enterprises will continue, and the disk is expected to oscillate in the short term [12][13] - **Coking Coal**: The supply is stable, and the spot price continues to rise. The coal mine production recovery is slow, and the upward space is limited. The middle and lower reaches' pre - holiday replenishment can be maintained in the short term, and the coal price is expected to oscillate strongly before the holiday [13][14] - **Glass**: The "anti - involution" sentiment has intensified. The short - term impact of the "Stable Growth Plan for the Building Materials Industry" is limited, and the long - term will optimize the supply. The demand is weak, and there may be oscillations after the middle - stream inventory reduction. In the long term, market - based capacity reduction is needed, and the price is expected to decline oscillatingly [14] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is at a high level, and the price is driven up by the glass sentiment. The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and it is expected to oscillate widely following macro - changes. In the long term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [15][18] - **Ferromanganese Silicon**: The peak - season expectation is positive, and the disk oscillates strongly. The downstream procurement demand during the peak season supports the price, but the supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and there is still room for the price center to decline after the peak season [19] - **Ferrosilicon**: The peak - season expectation supports the price, and the disk recovers from the low level. The peak - season expectation and strong cost support the price, but the supply - demand relationship is becoming looser, and the price still has downward pressure after the peak season [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The basic metals are expected to maintain an oscillatory upward pattern in the short - to - medium term, supported by a weak US dollar and supply disruptions, while the weak terminal demand will limit the upside. In the long term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin support the prices of basic metals. Opportunities for low - buying and long - holding in copper, aluminum, and tin are recommended [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - **Copper**: Grasberg copper mine has a large production cut, and copper prices are operating strongly. The reduction in Grasberg's production intensifies the supply shortage, and with the Fed's interest rate cut and the approaching peak demand season, if copper inventories continue to decline, copper prices may remain strong [7][8]. - **Alumina**: Affected by anti - involution sentiment, alumina prices have a slight rebound. The fundamentals show an over - supply situation, but the limited decline in ore prices restricts the downside. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillatory pattern in the short term [9][10]. - **Aluminum**: Attention should be paid to the demand quality, and aluminum prices are oscillating. After the interest rate cut, the supply is increasing with new capacity, and the demand is expected to improve, but the inventory accumulation continues. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term and may rise in the medium term [11][12]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Cost support remains, and the market is oscillating. The cost reduction space is limited, the supply and demand are marginally improving, and short - term price oscillation is expected. There are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [13][16]. - **Zinc**: The expectation of supply - demand surplus is still strong, and zinc prices are weak. Macro factors support the non - ferrous sector, but the supply is increasing and the demand is average. Zinc prices may oscillate in the short term and decline in the long term [16][17]. - **Lead**: The supply of recycled lead is decreasing, and lead prices are oscillating strongly. With the approaching of the National Day, downstream enterprises are stocking up, while the supply of recycled lead is tight. The price is expected to oscillate strongly before the holiday [18][20]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel inventory has exceeded 230,000 tons, and nickel prices are oscillating widely. The market sentiment dominates the price, and the industrial fundamentals are weakening. Short - term wide - range oscillation is expected [21][23]. - **Stainless Steel**: Warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and stainless steel prices are oscillating. The prices of nickel and chromium are stable, and the supply is increasing. Attention should be paid to the demand during the peak season and the inventory change [26]. - **Tin**: Supply constraints still exist, and tin prices are oscillating. The supply is tight, but the terminal demand is weakening. The price is expected to oscillate with strong bottom support [27][28]. 3.2行情监测 - Not provided with specific monitoring content in the given text

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Stock Index Futures**: Oscillating with a slight upward bias [9] - **Stock Index Options**: Oscillating [10] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Oscillating, with a cautious stance [11] 2. Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: On Wednesday, the Shanghai Composite Index rebounded on low volume, with the growth style being active. Incremental tech events, such as the 2025 Yunqi Conference and positive news from semiconductor - related companies, catalyzed the semiconductor industry chain. Nearly 4,500 stocks rose, but short - term sentiment was fragmented from the index. Due to the approaching National Day, the sustainability of event - driven trends is limited, but declines will trigger加仓意愿. It is advisable to hold a half - position in IM long contracts and wait for an opportunity to increase positions in mid - to late October [3][9]. - **Stock Index Options**: The option market sentiment was high. The equity market fluctuated upwards, with the STAR 50 Index rising 3.49% on a single day. The overall option trading volume declined slightly, with different trends among different underlying assets. The PCR of option positions and implied volatility generally increased. Considering short - term hedging needs and the entry of double - buying strategies before the holiday, the double - selling volatility strategy is not recommended. For investors with equity holdings, a defensive strategy should be maintained before the holiday [4][10]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market remained weak. Near the end of the quarter, there were concerns about the capital market. Although the central bank will conduct a net injection of medium - and long - term funds through MLF operations, the bond market sentiment is unstable, and negative factors are easily magnified. The strong performance of the stock market may have increased the pressure on the bond market adjustment. The market's expectation of fiscal policy has strengthened. In the short term, monetary policy may mainly rely on structural tools. The bond market remains cautious [4][10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory **I. Market Views** - **Stock Index Futures** - **Data**: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM for the current month changed by - 0.29, - 1.39, 54.4, and 40.25 points respectively compared to the previous trading day; the inter - delivery spread (current month - next month) changed by 0, 2.8, - 20, and - 9.4 points respectively; the positions changed by - 13140, - 3523, - 5890, and - 27949 hands respectively [9]. - **Logic**: Tech events drove the growth style. The sustainability of event - driven trends is limited due to the approaching holiday, but declines will trigger加仓 willingness. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold a half - position in IM long contracts [9]. - **Stock Index Options** - **Data**: The overall option trading volume declined slightly, with different trends among different underlying assets. The PCR of option positions and implied volatility generally increased, except for the implied volatility of STAR 50 ETF options, which rose [10]. - **Logic**: The equity market rose, and the option market sentiment was high. Considering short - term hedging needs and double - buying strategies before the holiday, the double - selling volatility strategy is not recommended. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a defensive strategy before the holiday for investors with equity holdings [10]. - **Treasury Bond Futures** - **Data**: The trading volume and positions of T, TF, TS, and TL for the current quarter changed to varying degrees; the inter - delivery spread, inter - variety spread, and basis also had different daily changes. The central bank conducted 4015 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 4185 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day [10]. - **Logic**: The bond market remained weak. Concerns about the capital market near the end of the quarter, unstable bond market sentiment, the strong stock market, and expectations of fiscal policy all contributed to the bond market adjustment. - **Operation Suggestion**: For trend strategies, be cautiously optimistic about oscillations; for hedging strategies, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels; for basis strategies, appropriately pay attention to basis widening; for curve strategies, expect the curve to remain steep [11]. **II. Economic Calendar** - **China**: The one - year loan prime rate as of September 22, 2025, remained at 3% [13]. - **Europe**: The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in September was 49.5, lower than the previous value of 50.7 and the forecast value of 50.9 [13]. - **US**: The annualized total number of new home sales in August was 800,000, higher than the previous value of 664,000 and the forecast value of 650,000. The number of initial jobless claims for the week ending September 20 is yet to be released, with a previous value of 231,000 and a forecast value of 235,000 [13]. **III. Important Information and News Tracking** - **Stablecoin**: The Hong Kong Monetary Authority clarified that the news about the issuance of the world's first offshore RMB - linked stablecoin in Hong Kong is false. The "Stablecoin Ordinance" came into effect on August 1, 2025, and anyone issuing fiat - linked stablecoins in Hong Kong needs a license [13]. - **Consumption**: Eight departments including the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued a guidance on promoting digital consumption, aiming to expand digital product consumption, encourage R & D innovation, and develop new consumer brands [14]. **IV. Derivatives Market Monitoring** - The report mentions data monitoring for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not provided in the given content.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas Fed's rate - cut will drive a new round of global liquidity easing, opening policy space for China's reserve - requirement ratio and interest - rate cuts. Liquidity easing trading dominates the market, and the risk of Fed's independence may increase the potential long - term rate - cut elasticity. The next Fed meeting is on October 29, and the market fully expects a 25 - bps rate cut. Attention should be paid to US September non - farm and inflation data released in early - mid October. The transmission of Fed's preventive rate cuts to the US real economy takes about 2 - 3 months [6]. - In Q3, China's economic growth slowed down continuously. The funds of existing pro - growth policies are expected to be in place faster. Attention should be paid to the implementation of 500 billion yuan in financial policy tools and new directions in the "15th Five - Year Plan". Investment data from July to August slowed down significantly, especially infrastructure investment. There is a risk that infrastructure funds in Q4 may fall short of expectations. However, the expected GDP growth rates in Q3 and Q4 are 4.9% and 4.7% respectively, and the annual 5% target can still be achieved. If investment and exports continue to decline in September, the probability of the implementation of existing funds and incremental policies in Q4 will increase [6]. - After the domestic and overseas uncertainties are resolved, risk assets may enter a short - term adjustment phase. In the next 1 - 2 quarters, the global loose liquidity and economic recovery expectations driven by fiscal leverage will support risk assets. In the medium - term from Q4 to H1 next year, the expected performance order is equities > commodities > bonds. In Q4, the stock market is expected to be volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas commodities such as gold and non - ferrous metals are favored, the weak - dollar trend will continue but at a slower pace. The allocation value of bonds increases after the rise of domestic interest rates, and bonds should be allocated equally with equities in Q4. Gold is for long - term strategic allocation, and rate cuts are the main logic in Q4, with the risk of premature trading of recovery expectations [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: After the Fed's decision, a new round of global liquidity easing is expected, providing policy space for China's rate cuts. The market is dominated by liquidity - easing trading. The risk of the Fed's independence may increase the potential long - term rate - cut elasticity. Attention should be paid to the impact of rate cuts on the US real economy. The next Fed meeting is on October 29, and market expectations for a 25 - bps rate cut are high. Pay attention to US September non - farm and inflation data. Historically, the transmission of Fed's preventive rate cuts to the US real economy takes 2 - 3 months [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: Q3 economic growth slowed. Existing pro - growth policy funds are expected to be in place faster. Pay attention to 500 billion yuan in financial policy tools and new "15th Five - Year Plan" directions. July - August investment data slowed, especially infrastructure investment. There is a risk of insufficient infrastructure funds in Q4. However, the annual 5% GDP growth target can still be achieved. If September investment and exports decline, the probability of policy implementation in Q4 will increase [6]. - **Asset Views**: After uncertainties are resolved, risk assets may adjust in the short - term. In the next 1 - 2 quarters, loose liquidity and economic recovery expectations will support risk assets. In the medium - term from Q4 to H1 next year, equities > commodities > bonds. In Q4, the stock market is volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas gold and non - ferrous metals are favored, the weak - dollar trend continues but slows. The allocation value of bonds increases, and they should be allocated equally with equities. Gold is for long - term strategic allocation, with rate cuts as the main Q4 logic and the risk of premature recovery - expectation trading [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial**: For stock index futures, use a dumbbell structure to deal with market divergence; for stock index options, continue the hedging and defensive strategy; for treasury bond futures, the stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short - term. All are expected to be volatile [7]. - **Precious Metals**: Driven by dovish expectations, the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise with a volatile trend, as the Fed restarted the rate - cut cycle in September and the risk of its independence has increased [7]. - **Shipping**: For the container shipping route to Europe, as the peak season in Q3 fades and loading is under pressure, it lacks upward momentum and is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to the rate of freight - price decline in September and policy dynamics [7]. - **Black Building Materials**: After the "anti - involution" sentiment cools down, the fundamentals still provide support. Products such as steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, etc. are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each [7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Driven by a weak dollar and the fermentation of reverse - invoicing issues, base metals tend to strengthen. Most products are expected to be volatile, with some showing an upward - trending volatility [7]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The supply - demand situation of crude oil has weakened significantly, and the decline of coking coal has affected the chemical industry. Most chemical products are expected to be volatile, with different market logics and influencing factors [9]. - **Agriculture**: Affected by Argentina's tariff policy changes, oilseeds and meals have been hit hard. Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide a clear industry - wide investment rating. However, for specific financial derivatives: - The outlook for stock index futures is "shock - biased upward" [7] - The outlook for stock index options is "shock" [7] - The outlook for treasury bond futures is "shock - biased cautious" [9] 2. Core Viewpoints - Stock index futures witnessed the release of crowded funds in small - and micro - cap stocks. The market is in a period of shock and consolidation. The growth style can be adhered to, with appropriate profit - taking, and half - position allocation of IM long positions is recommended, waiting for an opportunity to increase positions in mid - to late October [1][7] - Stock index options should focus on hedging and defense. There is a need for short - term hedging, and a double - buying strategy can be adopted during the week before the holiday. For those with equity holdings, the defensive thinking should be maintained, and the double - selling volatility strategy is not recommended before the holiday [2][7] - The bond market weakened again. The sentiment in the bond market is still unstable. In the short term, monetary policy may mainly rely on structural policy tools, and the bond market should be treated with caution [3][8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **Base and spread data**: IF, IH, IC, IM's current - month base points were - 9.58, 3.69, - 97.51, - 102.47 points respectively, with changes of 6.63, 3.26, - 15.79, - 8.59 points compared to the previous trading day. Their inter - period spreads (current - month - next - month) were 14.8, - 0.8, 86.8, 97 points respectively, with changes of 1.8, - 1.4, 21.6, 13.8 points [7] - **Position changes**: IF, IH, IC, IM positions changed by 20632, 2169, 23060, 39228 lots respectively [7] - **Logic**: The Shanghai Composite Index recovered after hitting the bottom on Tuesday, barely holding above 3800 points, with trading volume increasing to 2.5 trillion yuan. The release of crowded funds in small - and micro - cap stocks was due to entering an event - free period, early - morning sharp decline, and the breakdown of micro - cap stock indexes [1][7] 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **Market sentiment**: Trading volume increased again. The increase in the short - term position PCR indicates an increase in the demand for put options, and there is a risk - aversion sentiment in the market. The implied volatility of CSI 1000 stock index options exceeded 30 [2][7] - **Strategy**: For those with equity holdings, maintain a defensive mindset. Do not recommend the double - selling volatility strategy before the holiday [2][7] 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Trading data**: T, TF, TS, TL main contracts fell 0.21%, 0.13%, 0.05%, 0.67% respectively. T, TF, TS, TL current - quarter trading volumes were 110179, 81508, 38495, 154093 lots respectively, with 1 - day changes of 31082, 31191, 9637, 40402 lots. Positions were 221376, 126182, 67845, 143963 lots respectively, with 1 - day changes of - 4735, - 7155, - 1498, - 3095 lots [7][8] - **Spread data**: T, TF, TS, TL current - quarter vs. next - quarter spreads were 0.330, 0.120, 0.076, 0.320 yuan respectively, with 1 - day changes of - 0.025, - 0.010, 0.010, - 0.020 yuan. Cross - variety spreads and basis also had corresponding changes [7][8] - **Logic**: The central bank's statements and open - market operations made the market's broad - money expectations disappointed, and the market's concerns about the capital supply increased. The stock - bond seesaw effect did not occur [3][8][9] - **Strategy**: Adopt a shock - biased cautious trend strategy, pay attention to short - selling hedging at low basis levels, appropriately focus on basis widening, and expect the yield curve to remain steep [9] 3.2 Economic Calendar - On September 22, 2025, China's 1 - year loan prime rate remained at 3% [11] - On September 23, 2025, the preliminary value of the Eurozone's September manufacturing PMI was 49.5, lower than the forecast of 50.9 [11] - On September 24, 2025, the data of the annualized total number of new home sales in the US in August was yet to be released, with a previous value of 65.2 million and a forecast of 65 million [11] - On September 25, 2025, the data of the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending September 20 was yet to be released, with a previous value of 23.1 million and a forecast of 23.5 million [11] 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Domestic macro**: In August, China's total social electricity consumption was 1.0154 trillion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. From January to August, the cumulative total social electricity consumption was 6.8788 trillion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 4.6% [11] - **Overseas macro**: On September 23, China's top legislator Zhao Leji met with a US congressional delegation in Beijing, emphasizing the importance of stable Sino - US relations and the Taiwan issue [12] 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions the monitoring of stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures data, but no specific data is provided in the text [13][17][29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating". Specific varieties are rated as follows: steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, glass, manganese silicon, and silicon iron are rated as "oscillating"; coking coal is rated as "oscillating on the strong side"; and soda ash is expected to have a wide - range oscillating operation in the short term with a long - term downward price center [5][7][8][9][11][12][13][16][17][18][19]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "anti - involution" sentiment has cooled down, but the industry's fundamentals continue to support the prices of furnace materials, which in turn support steel prices. The downward pressure before the festival is limited. In the fourth quarter, the macro and policy aspects are expected to provide upward impetus for the prices of the black building materials sector [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is at a high level, and the increase in factory inventory reflects pre - festival restocking. After the spot price weakens, port transactions increase, and the fundamentals are healthy. However, the poor demand for building materials during the peak season limits the upward space. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the short term [1][7][8]. - **Scrap Steel**: The fundamentals of scrap steel are marginally weakening, but it is expected that it is difficult to form an independent market, and the price will mainly follow the fluctuations of finished products [1]. 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: Currently, both coke and steel enterprises have certain production profits. Supported by the peak - season restocking demand, the short - term supply and demand are strong. The spot has started a new round of price increases, and the support is relatively strong under the stable rebound of coal prices at the cost end. It is expected that the futures market will remain oscillating in the short term [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Under the current over - speed inspection, coal mine production remains cautious, and the supply recovery is slow. The upward height is limited. At the same time, the restocking demand of the middle and lower reaches before the National Day is good, and the market still has positive expectations for the end - of - month meeting. It is expected that the price will oscillate on the strong side in the short term [2]. 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The expected downstream procurement demand during the peak season still supports the price of manganese silicon, but the market supply - demand expectation for the future is rather pessimistic. After the peak season, there is still downward space for the price center of manganese silicon. Attention should be paid to the downward range of raw material costs [2]. - **Silicon Iron**: The peak - season expectation and strong cost support the price performance of silicon iron, but the supply - demand relationship of silicon iron tends to be loose, and there is still downward pressure on the price after the peak season [2]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The actual demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. There may still be a wave of oscillations after the middle - stream inventory reduction. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed. If the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [2][13]. - **Soda Ash**: The pattern of oversupply has not changed. After the downward movement of the futures market, the spot - futures trading volume has increased slightly. It is expected to have a wide - range oscillating operation in the future. In the long - term, the price center will still decline to promote capacity reduction [2][16]. 3.5 Specific Variety Analysis - **Steel**: The spot market transactions are generally weak, and the speculative sentiment is poor. The peak - season demand recovery is limited, and the pre - festival restocking sentiment of the middle and lower reaches has cooled down. The supply is high, and the inventory is at a moderately high level. The fundamentals are contradictory, and the futures market is under pressure. However, the cost end still has certain support, and the downward space is limited [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot price has declined, and port transactions have increased. The overall supply is stable, and the short - term demand is still supported. The inventory level is moderate. The high - level demand supports, but the poor demand for building materials during the peak season limits the upward space, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [7][8]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply has increased slightly this week, and the demand has decreased slightly. The factory inventory has increased slightly, and the inventory available days have rebounded slightly. The fundamentals are marginally weakening, and the price mainly follows the finished products [9]. - **Coke**: Some coke enterprises have started to raise prices, and the short - term supply and demand are strong. The raw material cost support is strong, but the coking profit is under pressure. The futures market is expected to remain oscillating in the short term [9][11][12]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price has continued to rebound, and coal mines have many pre - sales orders. The supply recovery is slow, and the restocking demand before the festival is good. The price is expected to oscillate on the strong side in the short term [12]. - **Glass**: The actual demand is weak, and the fundamentals are still weak. The peak - season demand needs to be verified. After the middle - stream inventory reduction, there may be oscillations. In the long - term, it needs market - oriented capacity reduction and is expected to oscillate downward [13]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is stable at a high level, and the oversupply expectation suppresses the price. The futures market is expected to have a wide - range oscillating operation, and the long - term price center will decline [14][16]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The market is in a wait - and - see mood, and the price is stable. The downstream procurement demand during the peak season supports the price, but the future supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and there is downward space for the price center after the peak season [17]. - **Silicon Iron**: The peak - season expectation and cost support the price, but the supply - demand relationship tends to be loose, and there is downward pressure on the price after the peak season [18][19].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Precious metals maintained a high - slope upward trend on Tuesday. Short - term positive factors include frequent hacker attacks on cryptocurrencies and the risk of the US government shutdown. In the upward trend dominated by the interest rate cut cycle, the macro - narrative of the monetary attribute amplifies price elasticity, and the market is not in a crowded stage, so precious metal prices may continue to rise with a high slope in the short term [1][3] - The expectation of interest rate cuts is the core positive driver for gold. With mild inflation and weak employment, the Fed's interest rate cut is unobstructed. The Fed Watch shows that the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts within the year has expanded to 3 times. After the restart of the interest rate cut cycle, dovish expectations are expected to continue to drive gold prices up. The change of the Fed chairperson is approaching, and Trump's control over the Fed is expected to strengthen, increasing the imagination of long - term interest rate cuts and strengthening the macro - narrative of the decline in the US dollar's credit. The target price of US dollar - denominated gold within the year is maintained at $4000 [3] - Silver trends follow gold. The US fundamentals have not shown a rapid decline, and soft - landing trading dominates the market. The suppression of silver's elasticity has significantly slowed down, and the silver price is expected to follow the upward trend of gold, challenging the historical high of around $50 in 2011 in the first and second quarters [3] - The weekly range of spot London gold is [3600, 3900], and that of spot London silver is [41, 47] [3] Group 3: Summary of Key Information Key Information - The US current account deficit in the second quarter was $251.3 billion, the lowest since the third quarter of 2023, better than the expected deficit of $256.3 billion, and the previous value was revised from a deficit of $450.2 billion to $439.8 billion [2] - Fed's new governor Milan proposed that the benchmark interest rate is much higher than the reasonable level and should be actively and significantly cut. He believes there is nearly a 2 - percentage - point space for interest rate cuts, but this view isolates him within the Fed [2] - The risk of the US government shutdown is approaching. Trump will meet with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries at the White House. Lawmakers emphasized the importance of dealing with rising costs, including the medical crisis caused by the Republicans [2] Price Index - On September 23, 2025, the comprehensive index of the CITICS Futures Commodity Index was 2220.36, down 0.73%; the Commodity 20 Index was 2492.22, down 0.75%; the industrial products index was 2229.14, down 0.76% [43] - The precious metals index on September 23, 2025, had a daily increase of 0.82%, a 5 - day increase of 2.66%, a 1 - month increase of 9.45%, and a year - to - date increase of 35.23% [45]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report doesn't provide an overall investment rating for the industry. However, the mid - term outlook for most energy and chemical products is "shock - weakening", with a few in "shock" status [3][6][8][11][12]. 2. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical concerns have reignited, and the supply pressure on crude oil continues. The geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine has escalated, and the market is worried about Russia's crude oil supply. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, and the later period will face the dual pressures of the peak and decline of refinery operations and OPEC+ production increases [1][6]. - Most chemical trade data shows that imports of most varieties have declined year - on - year, while imports of methanol, PX, and pure benzene have increased. Exports of PVC, PE, PP, and styrene have performed well. The chemical chain valuation has been slightly compressed recently, and the rebound of crude oil may trigger the replenishment demand of the industrial chain, leading to the stabilization of chemical product prices [2]. - The overall energy and chemical industry will continue the pattern of shock and consolidation [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes and Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical concerns have reignited, and supply pressure continues. - **Main Logic**: Overnight oil prices rebounded. Geopolitical concerns dominated by the Russia - Ukraine situation are still fermenting, supporting the bottom of the range. API data shows that US crude oil and gasoline inventories decreased last week. Under the background of OPEC+ accelerating production increases, crude oil will face the dual pressures of the peak and decline of refinery operations and OPEC+ production increases in the later period. - **Outlook**: Oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to short - term geopolitical disturbances [6]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The asphalt - fuel oil price difference has declined rapidly. - **Main Logic**: Saudi Arabia promotes OPEC+ to continue increasing production, the US may impose tariffs on Russia, and Russia may stop exporting diesel, leading to a sharp rise in oil prices but limited increase in asphalt futures prices and compressed profits. The asphalt - fuel oil price difference has decreased rapidly, and the planned asphalt production in October has increased by 19% year - on - year. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is over - estimated, and the asphalt monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [8]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical disturbances drive the sharp rise of fuel oil futures prices. - **Main Logic**: Saudi Arabia promotes OPEC+ to continue increasing production, the US may impose tariffs on Russia, and Russia may stop exporting diesel, leading to a sharp rise in fuel oil futures prices. However, the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to deteriorate due to factors such as the increase in import tariffs, weak gasoline in the US, and low refinery operating rates. - **Outlook**: Geopolitical escalation will have a short - term impact on prices, and attention should be paid to changes in the Russia - Ukraine situation [9]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates and rises following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the rise of crude oil, but the pressure level of 3500 is effective in the short term. It faces negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The domestic refined oil supply pressure has increased, and it is expected to maintain a low - valuation operation. - **Outlook**: Affected by green fuel substitution and limited high - sulfur substitution demand space, but with a low current valuation, it fluctuates following crude oil [11]. 3.1.5 Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The increase in external procurement in the inland area boosts the methanol futures price to fluctuate. - **Main Logic**: The methanol futures price fluctuated on September 23. The increase in the external procurement demand of some olefin enterprises in Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi has supported the price. The inland inventory pressure is limited, but the port inventory pressure is still large in the near - term. Considering the high probability of overseas shutdown in the far - term, some funds still bet at low prices. - **Outlook**: Short - term shock [21]. 3.1.6 Urea - **Viewpoint**: The pattern of loose supply and demand is difficult to change, and the futures price continues to be under pressure along the cost line. - **Main Logic**: On September 23, the daily production and operating rate on the supply side remained high, the demand side lacked strong support, and the export expectation was weakening. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals of supply and demand remain loose. Before the festival, the demand is mainly for order collection, and the downstream transactions are moderately promoted. It is expected to fluctuate and wait for other positive factors [23]. 3.1.7 Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Viewpoint**: The downstream demand support is weak, and the supply - demand margin weakens. - **Main Logic**: The cost side has no obvious support, and the commodity atmosphere is not good. The overall supply remains high, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the later period. - **Outlook**: The price fluctuates weakly, looking for support at the lower level [15][16]. 3.1.8 PX - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand margin weakens, the demand is lower than expected, and the processing fee is under pressure. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices fluctuate at a low level, and the atmosphere in the energy and chemical sector is not good. The supply remains high, the downstream demand is still weak, and the processing fee is still under pressure. - **Outlook**: Shock - weakening [12]. 3.1.9 PTA - **Viewpoint**: The basis continues to weaken, and the willingness to hold goods is low. - **Main Logic**: The cost side fluctuates weakly, and the support is insufficient. The supply maintenance increases, but it still cannot effectively suppress market liquidity. The basis is still weak, and the processing fee has not improved significantly. - **Outlook**: Shock - weakening [12]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The inventory is slightly reduced, and the processing fee is firm. - **Main Logic**: The prices of upstream polyester raw materials fluctuate and weaken, and the cost support is insufficient. The supply is stable, the downstream production and sales are tepid, and the processing fee is firm. - **Outlook**: The absolute value of short - fiber fluctuates with raw materials, and it fluctuates weakly in the short term [18][19]. 3.1.11 Bottle - Chip - **Viewpoint**: The processing fee runs stably, and attention should be paid to contract negotiations. - **Main Logic**: The cost of upstream polyester raw materials weakens, and the absolute price of bottle - chips fluctuates and declines. The processing fee is relatively firm, and attention should be paid to the speculative replenishment demand of downstream at low prices. - **Outlook**: Shock - weakening, and the absolute value fluctuates with raw materials [19]. 3.1.12 PP - **Viewpoint**: The maintenance rate increases, and PP should pay attention to the support strength at the previous low. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices fluctuate. The plastic futures price declines in the short term, and the downstream transactions still increase. Although the downstream start - up in the peak season is slow, there is still some support for demand. The fundamentals of PP are still under pressure, and the supply side still has certain pressure. - **Outlook**: Short - term shock - weakening [26][27]. 3.1.13 Propylene (PL) - **Viewpoint**: It fluctuates following PP, and PL fluctuates and declines in the short term. - **Main Logic**: Traders in the market are generally bearish on the future market. Affected by the psychology of "buying on rising, not on falling", downstream pre - festival inventory - building willingness is general, and the market trading is dull. - **Outlook**: PL fluctuates weakly in the short term [27]. 3.1.14 Plastic (LLDPE) - **Viewpoint**: The downstream transactions still increase, and plastic fluctuates and declines. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices fluctuate. The plastic futures price declines in the short term, and the downstream transactions still increase. Although the downstream start - up in the peak season is slow, there is still some support for demand. The fundamentals of plastic are still under pressure, and the supply side still has certain pressure. - **Outlook**: The fundamental support is limited, and it fluctuates in the short term [25]. 3.1.15 Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: The future market expectation is still pessimistic, and pure benzene returns to decline. - **Main Logic**: At the beginning of the week, the inventory in East China ports decreased, and downstream had certain replenishment demand. However, after the positive news of interest rate cuts was realized, and affected by the postponement of pure benzene maintenance and import transactions, the prices of pure benzene and styrene declined. Pure benzene is difficult to destock before the end of the year, and the inventory accumulation is the most obvious in October. - **Outlook**: If the styrene maintenance is implemented from September to October, the pattern of pure benzene will return to the situation of oversupply and inventory accumulation [13][14]. 3.1.16 Styrene - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals lack positive factors, and styrene resumes decline. - **Main Logic**: At the beginning of the week, the news of Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance boosted the sentiment of styrene. After the positive news of interest rate cuts was realized, and affected by the postponement of pure benzene maintenance and import transactions, the styrene price declined. The current contradiction of styrene is the high inventory of upstream and downstream, which is difficult to destock. The cost side of pure benzene also drags down the styrene price. - **Outlook**: The profit has reached a low level, and one can try to widen the styrene profit. The idea of shorting on rebounds remains unchanged [14][15]. 3.1.17 PVC - **Viewpoint**: The market sentiment has declined, and PVC should be cautiously bearish. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the domestic anti - involution policy is to be implemented, and overseas has entered the interest rate - cut cycle, so the market sentiment is prone to fluctuations. At the micro level, the fundamentals of PVC are under pressure, but the dynamic cost has increased, and the market sentiment may recover. - **Outlook**: PVC fluctuates, with pressure from the medium - and long - term fundamentals and support from the increase in dynamic cost and the recovery of market sentiment [29]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The expectation is strong, but the reality is weak, and the market fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the domestic anti - involution policy is to be implemented, and overseas has entered the interest rate - cut cycle, so the market sentiment is prone to fluctuations. At the micro level, the fundamentals of caustic soda still have pressure, but the demand expectation is good. The support comes from the strong expectation of caustic soda inventory - building for the production of 4.8 million tons of alumina in Guangxi in Q1 2026. - **Outlook**: It fluctuates in the medium - and long - term. The spot price is weakly stable before the festival, and the market may rebound due to the strong inventory - building expectation for alumina production in Q4. If the inventory - building expectation is realized after the festival, the market may return to the weak reality [30]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Cross - Period Spread**: The report provides the cross - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., including the latest values and change values [32]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the basis and warehouse receipts of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., including the latest values and change values [33]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The cross - variety spreads of different categories are presented, such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc., along with the latest values and change values [34]. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all declined on September 23, 2025, with declines of 0.73%, 0.75%, and 0.76% respectively [276]. - **Energy Index**: On September 23, 2025, the energy index was 1179.87, with a daily decline of 1.64%, a decline of 4.31% in the past 5 days, a decline of 4.01% in the past month, and a decline of 3.91% since the beginning of the year [278].

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/09/24 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: Li Qiang travelled to New York to attend the General Debate of the 80th Se ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas Fed's policy shift may lead to global liquidity easing, opening up space for China's reserve - requirement ratio and interest - rate cuts. The market is still dominated by liquidity - easing trades. The next Fed meeting is on October 29, and the market expects a 25 - bps rate cut. Attention should be paid to the US September non - farm and inflation data in early - mid October. The transmission of Fed's preventive rate cuts to the US real economy takes about 2 - 3 months [6]. - China's economic growth slowed in Q3. There is an expectation that the funds from existing growth - stabilizing policies will be in place faster, and attention should be paid to the implementation of 500 billion yuan in financial policy tools and new directions in the "14th Five - Year Plan". Investment data slowed significantly from July to August, especially infrastructure investment. There is a risk that infrastructure funds in Q4 may fall short of expectations. However, the GDP growth rates in Q3 and Q4 are expected to be 4.9% and 4.7% respectively, and the annual 5% target can still be achieved [6]. - After the policies at home and abroad are settled, risk assets may experience a short - term adjustment. In the next 1 - 2 quarters, global loose liquidity and fiscal leverage - driven economic recovery expectations will support risk assets. In the medium - term from Q4 this year to H1 next year, the expected performance order is equities > commodities > bonds. In Q4, the stock market is expected to be volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas commodities such as gold and non - ferrous metals are favored, the weak US dollar trend continues but with a slower slope. Domestic bonds' allocation value increases after the interest - rate rise, and they should be evenly allocated with equities in Q4. Gold is for long - term strategic allocation, and rate cuts are the main logic in Q4 [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: After the Fed's policy shift, a new round of global liquidity easing is expected. The Fed's independence risk may increase the potential for future rate cuts. Attention should be paid to the US economic data before the next Fed meeting [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: China's economic growth slowed in Q3. There are risks in infrastructure investment in Q4, but the annual GDP target can still be achieved. The probability of the implementation of existing funds and new policies in Q4 will increase if investment and exports continue to decline in September [6]. - **Asset Views**: In the medium - term, equities are expected to perform better than commodities and bonds. In Q4, the stock market is volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas gold and non - ferrous metals are favored, and bonds' allocation value increases. Gold is for long - term strategic investment [6]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Use a dumbbell structure to deal with market divergence. The short - term judgment is "oscillating" due to the attenuation of incremental funds [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: Continue the hedging and defensive strategy. The short - term judgment is "oscillating" considering the possible deterioration of option market liquidity [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term. The short - term judgment is "oscillating" with concerns about unexpected changes in tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Driven by dovish expectations, prices are rising. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and rising", and attention should be paid to the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and global equity market trends [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in Q3 has passed, and there is no upward driving force. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to the rate of freight - rate decline in September [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: Demand recovery is slow, and there are continuous policy disturbances. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to the progress of special - bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Shipments have decreased, and port inventories have increased. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipments, domestic iron - water production, weather, port inventories, and policy dynamics [7]. - **Coke**: The fundamentals are healthy, and the spot price is stable. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to steel - mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Spot transactions are good, and the futures price has a slight correction. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to steel - mill production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply - demand drivers are limited, and the futures price has fallen from a high level. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to raw material costs and steel procurement [7]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Supply - demand expectations are pessimistic, and the price is under pressure. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to cost prices and overseas quotes [7]. - **Glass**: Futures and spot inventories have increased significantly, and mid - stream restocking is coming to an end. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to spot sales [7]. - **Soda Ash**: Inventory has been continuously transferred, and upstream inventory has decreased significantly. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to soda - ash inventory [7]. 3.2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: There are new disturbances in copper - ore supply, and the copper price is oscillating strongly. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and rising", and attention should be paid to supply disturbances, domestic policies, Fed's policy, domestic demand recovery, and economic recession risks [7]. - **Alumina**: The spot market is weak, and inventory is accumulating. The alumina price is under pressure. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to ore production recovery, electrolytic - aluminum production recovery, and extreme market trends [7]. - **Aluminum**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and the aluminum price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to macro risks, supply disturbances, and demand shortfalls [7]. - **Zinc**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and the zinc price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to macro risks and zinc - ore supply recovery [7]. - **Lead**: Supply of recycled lead has decreased, and the lead price is rising. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and rising", and attention should be paid to supply - side disturbances and battery exports [7]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia has cracked down on illegal mining, and the nickel price is oscillating widely. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to macro and geopolitical risks, Indonesian policies, and supply - chain issues [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: Cost support is strong, and the stainless - steel futures price has risen significantly. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and demand growth [7]. - **Tin**: The resumption of production in Wa State is slower than expected, and the tin price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to the resumption of production and demand improvement in Wa State [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is increasing, suppressing the silicon price. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to supply - side production cuts and photovoltaic installation [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Fundamental drivers are weak, and the price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to demand, supply disturbances, and technological breakthroughs [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil/LPG**: Supply pressure continues, and there are geopolitical disturbances. The short - term judgment for crude oil is "oscillating and falling", and for LPG is "oscillating", with attention to OPEC+ policies and Middle - East geopolitics [9]. - **Asphalt**: The futures price is under pressure at the 3500 level. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and falling", and attention should be paid to sanctions and supply disturbances [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel - oil futures price is weakly oscillating. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and falling", and attention should be paid to geopolitics and crude - oil prices [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the weak trend of crude oil. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and falling", and attention should be paid to crude - oil prices [9]. - **Methanol**: Affected by olefins and port inventory, the short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [9]. - **Urea**: The price is under cost pressure, and there is a risk of an emotional rebound. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to export policies and the seventh Indian tender [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Market sentiment is affected by future inventory accumulation. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to coal and oil prices, port inventory, and device operations [9]. - **PX**: Due to postponed device maintenance and capacity expansion, the supply - demand balance has weakened. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to crude - oil price fluctuations, macro changes, and demand during the peak season [9]. - **PTA**: Low processing fees lead to more production cuts. The short - term supply - demand situation has improved, but the long - term oversupply remains. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to crude - oil price fluctuations, macro changes, and demand during the peak season [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: Terminal orders have improved slightly, but high supply poses risks. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to downstream yarn - mill purchases and peak - season demand [9]. - **Bottle Chips**: There is short - term replenishment, but long - term demand recovery is uncertain. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to production - cut targets and terminal demand [9]. - **Propylene**: The price difference with PP oscillates between 500 - 550. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic macro - economy [9]. - **PP**: There may be support at the previous low. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - economies [9]. - **Plastic**: Maintenance support is limited, and the price is falling. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - economies [9]. - **Styrene**: Market sentiment has improved, and attention should be paid to policy details. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to oil prices, macro policies, and device operations [9]. - **PVC**: There is a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to expectations, costs, and supply [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: There are expectations of alumina production resumption, and the caustic - soda price is rising. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to market sentiment, production, and demand [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: The expected production of Malaysian palm oil in September has decreased month - on - month. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to US soybean weather and Malaysian palm - oil supply - demand data [9]. - **Protein Meal**: There is pre - holiday restocking, and the futures price has rebounded from the lower end of the range. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and rising", and attention should be paid to US soybean weather, domestic demand, and trade relations [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: Farmers are more willing to sell, and the futures price has broken through the previous low. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to demand, macro - economy, and weather [9]. - **Pigs**: Supply and demand are loose, and the price is weak. The short - term judgment is "oscillating and falling", and attention should be paid to farming sentiment, epidemics, and policies [9]. - **Rubber**: There is positive sentiment from data correction, and attention should be paid to its sustainability. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to production - area weather, raw - material prices, and macro - changes [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The futures price is oscillating within a range. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to crude - oil price fluctuations [9]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price has adjusted downward in advance due to expectations of a new - crop supply increase. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to demand and inventory [9]. - **Sugar**: The fundamentals have not improved, and the sugar price is looking for support. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to imports [9]. - **Pulp**: The spot market is weak, and the pulp price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to macro - economic changes and US dollar - based quotes [9]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The price is oscillating narrowly. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to production - sales, education policies, and paper - mill operations [9]. - **Logs**: The futures price is fluctuating narrowly. The short - term judgment is "oscillating", and attention should be paid to shipments and dispatches [9].