Report Information - Report Title: Yangtze River Futures Feed and Livestock Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: January 12, 2026 - Researcher: Ye Tian - Company: Yangtze River Futures Co., Ltd. Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Views - **Pig Market**: Supply pressure remains high, and futures prices are under pressure. In the short - term, pig prices will fluctuate and adjust, with a risk of decline. In the long - term, the supply in the first quarter will increase, and prices after the Spring Festival will be under pressure. The price in the second half of the year is expected to be stronger but still above the equilibrium level [4][56]. - **Egg Market**: As the Spring Festival approaches, the spot price is expected to rise seasonally, but the sufficient supply will limit the increase. In the long - term, the supply pressure in the second quarter may be alleviated, but the overall long - term supply pressure still exists [5][83]. - **Corn Market**: In the short - term, the supply and demand are balanced, and the futures price will fluctuate within a range. In the long - term, the new - season corn supply is sufficient, and the demand is moderately weak, which will limit the upside space [6][103]. Summary by Directory 1. Feed and Livestock Viewpoints Summary Pig - **Spot and Futures**: As of January 9, the national spot price was 12.51 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from last week; the futures price of contract 2503 was 11770 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; the basis of contract 03 was 1160 yuan/ton, up 305 yuan/ton [4][56]. - **Supply**: Since September, the inventory of reproductive sows has been slightly decreasing. The supply will remain high before the first half of the year and decrease marginally after August. In January, the planned pig slaughter of large - scale enterprises decreased month - on - month [4][56]. - **Demand**: The weekly slaughter rate and volume decreased. The Spring Festival stocking period has not started, and the demand growth is weak. The high frozen - meat inventory will suppress the supply in the future [4][56]. - **Cost**: The prices of piglets and binary reproductive sows increased. The self - breeding and self - raising profit was positive, and the loss of purchasing piglets for breeding narrowed. The cost of self - breeding and self - raising fattening pigs increased slightly [4][56]. - **Strategy**: In the context of high supply pressure, short the off - season contracts on rallies. Be cautious about bullish on the far - month contracts. The industry can hedge at high levels above the profit [4][56]. Eggs - **Spot and Futures**: As of January 9, the average price in the main production areas was 3.23 yuan/jin, up 0.21 yuan/jin; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.24 yuan/jin, up 0.21 yuan/jin; the futures price of contract 2603 was 3040 yuan/500 kg, up 89 yuan/500 kg; the basis of the main contract was - 137 yuan/500 kg, weaker by 51 yuan/500 kg [5][83]. - **Supply**: The number of newly - opened laying hens in January corresponds to the replenishment in August 2025, showing a year - on - year and month - on - month decline. The inventory of laying hens is slowly declining, but the base is still large [5][83]. - **Demand**: As the Spring Festival approaches, the domestic demand is expected to increase significantly. The low price of pork and the high price of vegetables increase the substitution demand for eggs [5][83]. - **Strategy**: Currently, the basis is low, and the valuation is high. Do not short on the short - term. Wait for the spot price to rise less than expected and then hedge the post - festival 03 contract at high levels [5][83]. Corn - **Spot and Futures**: As of January 9, the corn flat - cargo price at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2330 yuan/ton, unchanged from before the holiday; the futures price of contract 2603 was 2263 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton; the basis of the main contract was 67 yuan/ton, weaker by 37 yuan/ton [6][103]. - **Supply**: The national grain - selling progress was 50%, faster than the same period last year. The supply in the production areas slowed down, and the import policy grain auction had good results [6][103]. - **Demand**: The demand for feed is rigid, but the increase in corn price may lead to an increase in wheat substitution. The deep - processing demand is limited due to low profits and high inventories [6][103]. - **Strategy**: Do not chase the high price of the futures in the short - term. Holders of grain can hedge at high levels on rallies. In the long - term, the demand will gradually recover, but the supply is sufficient, which will limit the upside [6][103]. 2. Variety Industry Data Analysis Pig - **Weekly Market Review**: The spot price first decreased and then increased, with narrow fluctuations. The futures price fluctuated more under the influence of spot and macro factors, and the basis strengthened [4][56]. - **Key Data Tracking**: The inventory of reproductive sows is expected to decline slowly. The production performance is at a high level in the past four years. The number of new - born piglets has been increasing since February 2025, indicating high supply in the first quarter of 2026 [16]. Eggs - **Weekly Market Review**: The spot price rebounded from the low level, and the futures price of the main contract was strong, with a slight premium over the spot [61][83]. - **Key Data Tracking**: The inventory of laying hens is slowly declining. The weekly number of eliminated chickens decreased, and the price of chicken seedlings increased [83]. Corn - **Weekly Market Review**: The national corn price was adjusted within a narrow range. The futures price of the main contract was strong, with a discount to the spot [89][103]. - **Key Data Tracking**: The national grain - selling progress was 50%, faster than the same period last year. The import of corn increased in November. The inventory in the north and south ports increased [6][103].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal market shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. The near - month 03 contract is supported by de - stocking expectations and cost, but the upside is limited due to spot supply - demand relaxation and state - reserve soybean auctions. The 05 contract is bearish under the background of South American harvest expectations and domestic supply - demand relaxation [8]. - The three major oils show a differentiated trend in the short term. Soybean and palm oils may stop falling and rebound, but the upside is limited by the potentially bearish MPOB December report and South American new - crop soybean harvest expectations. Rapeseed oil is in a weak shock trend due to the expected marginal relaxation of domestic supply - demand and the possible cancellation of anti - dumping duties on Canadian rapeseed products [72]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Period and Spot End - As of January 9, the East China spot price of soybean meal was 3100 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton weekly; the M2605 contract closed at 2786 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton weekly; the basis quote was 05 + 300 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. US soybean prices rebounded from the bottom, supported by China's purchases, but the upside was limited. Domestic soybean meal first rose and then fell, with price pressure after the auction information was released on Thursday [8][10]. 3.1.2 Supply End - The market maintains the expectation of a bountiful South American soybean harvest in the 2025/26 season. Global soybean supply growth is lower than demand growth, with ending stocks and the stock - to - use ratio declining. In 2025/26, global soybean production is 422 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.39 million tons. China's soybean imports are expected to be 112 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons year - on - year. The supply pattern is tight first and then loose [8]. 3.1.3 Demand End - Current soybean meal demand remains high, supported by high pig and poultry inventories and good cost - performance. In the first week of 2026, the national oil mill soybean inventory rose to 7.1025 million tons, up 8.53% week - on - week and 19.48% year - on - year; the national oil mill soybean meal inventory increased slightly to 1.1702 million tons, up 0.22% week - on - week and 71.18% year - on - year [8]. 3.1.4 Cost End - The cost of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 950 cents/bu. The domestic soybean meal cost from May to August is estimated to be 2580 yuan/ton, and from July to September, it rises to 2760 yuan/ton. The cost of US soybeans in the second half of 2025/26 is 1000 cents/bu, and the domestic import cost is 3000 yuan/ton. Brazilian soybean crushing profit has risen to around 100 yuan/ton [8]. 3.1.5 Market Summary - The near - month 03 contract is strongly supported by de - stocking expectations and cost, but the upside is limited. The 05 contract is bearish under the background of South American harvest expectations and domestic supply - demand relaxation. The near - strong and far - weak pattern continues [8]. 3.2 Oils 3.2.1 Period and Spot End - As of the week of January 9, the palm oil main 05 contract rose 98 yuan/ton to 8682 yuan/ton compared with December 31; the Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil rose 90 yuan/ton to 8680 yuan/ton; the palm oil 05 basis fell 8 yuan/ton to - 2 yuan/ton. The soybean oil main 05 contract rose 132 yuan/ton to 7994 yuan/ton; the Zhangjiagang Grade 4 soybean oil rose 110 yuan/ton to 8490 yuan/ton; the soybean oil 05 basis fell 22 yuan/ton to 496 yuan/ton. The rapeseed oil main 05 contract fell 45 yuan/ton to 9042 yuan/ton; the Fangchenggang Grade 3 rapeseed oil remained at 9920 yuan/ton; the rapeseed oil 05 basis rose 45 yuan/ton to 878 yuan/ton [72][73]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil - The market expects the Malaysian palm oil inventory in December to rise to 3 million tons, a near - 7 - year high. However, the latest high - frequency data shows a significant decline in production and a sharp increase in exports in January. Indonesia may continue to confiscate plantations and increase export taxes in 2026. In China, palm oil prices have fallen to improve import profits, and new purchases have limited the de - stocking speed. As of the week of January 2, domestic palm oil inventory decreased slightly to 733,800 tons [72]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil - The growth of South American soybeans in the 2025/26 season is generally good, and early - sown Brazilian soybeans have started harvesting, competing with US soybeans. The market expects the USDA January report to be bullish, and China's purchases of US soybeans are approaching 10 million tons. The 45Z tax credit rule may stimulate soybean oil biodiesel demand. In China, soybean auctions have resumed, but the seasonal low of soybean arrivals in the first quarter of 2026 and stricter customs inspections help soybean oil de - stock. As of the week of January 2, domestic soybean oil inventory decreased to 1.081 million tons [72]. 3.2.4 Rapeseed Oil - The tight domestic supply - demand situation is gradually easing. The first shipment of Australian rapeseed in the 2025/26 season is expected to be crushed in January, and Russian rapeseed oil exports will be more active after the holiday. The Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China may lead to the cancellation of anti - dumping duties on Canadian rapeseed products. As of the week of January 2, domestic rapeseed oil inventory decreased to 270,000 tons [72]. 3.2.5 Weekly Summary - In the short term, the three major oils show a differentiated trend. Soybean and palm oils may stop falling and rebound, but the upside is limited. Rapeseed oil is in a weak shock trend. In the long term, palm oil will seasonally de - stock in the first quarter of 2026, and soybean oil may rebound, while rapeseed oil will continue to be weak [72]. 3.2.6 Strategy Suggestion - For soybean and palm oils, be cautious about chasing up due to limited short - term rebounds. For rapeseed oil, gradually liquidate previous long positions. Focus on this week's USDA and MPOB reports and China - Canada negotiations [72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Polyolefins are expected to have limited upward range and are likely to experience weak oscillations. Key factors to watch include downstream demand, the situation in Venezuela, and crude oil price fluctuations [8][9] - Plastics still face supply - demand contradictions and are expected to trade in a range [10] - Polypropylene (PP) faces significant upward pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [53] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Plastic 3.1.1 Weekly Market Review - On January 9, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6,674 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.12%. The average price of LDPE was 8,933.33 yuan/ton, up 2.88% from the previous week. The average price of HDPE was 7,022.50 yuan/ton, up 2.52%. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 6,848.89 yuan/ton, up 3.37%. The LLDPE South China basis was 174.89 yuan/ton, down 0.94% week - on - week, and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 249 yuan/ton (- 47) [12] 3.1.2 Key Data Tracking - **Month - spreads**: On January 9, 2026, the 1 - 5 month spread was - 249 yuan/ton (- 47), the 5 - 9 month spread was - 41 yuan/ton (- 4), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 290 yuan/ton (+ 51) [17] - **Spot Prices**: Provided detailed spot price data for different varieties (HDPE, LDPE, LLDPE) in various regions, including minimum, maximum, and mainstream prices, as well as their price changes [20][21] - **Cost**: Last week, WTI crude oil closed at $58.78 per barrel, up $1.45 from the previous week, and Brent crude oil closed at $63.05 per barrel, up $2.25. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,070 yuan/ton (unchanged) [23] - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was - 472 yuan/ton, up 158 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the profit of coal - based PE was 34 yuan/ton, up 98 yuan/ton [28] - **Supply**: This week, the operating rate of Chinese polyethylene production was 83.67%, up 0.43 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly polyethylene output was 68.68 tons, up 0.51% week - on - week. The maintenance loss this week was 9.87 tons, down 0.36 tons from the previous week [34] - **2026 Production Plan**: Multiple companies have planned new production capacity in 2026, with a total planned capacity of 550 tons [37] - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many enterprises' polyethylene production lines have been shut down for maintenance, and some of the restart times are undetermined [38] - **Demand**: This week, the overall domestic agricultural film operating rate was 37.89%, down 1.06% from the previous week; the PE packaging film operating rate was 48.96%, up 0.55%, and the PE pipe operating rate was 29.50%, down 0.50% [40] - **Downstream Production Ratio**: Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, accounting for 31.5%, with a 2% difference from the annual average. The production ratio of low - pressure film is significantly different from the annual average, currently accounting for 6.9%, with a 3% difference [44] - **Inventory**: This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 48.48 tons, down 0.16 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.33% [46] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 11,365 lots, an increase of 12 lots from the previous week [50] 3.2 PP 3.2.1 Weekly Market Review - On January 9, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6,514 yuan/ton, up 166 yuan/ton from the previous weekend, a week - on - week increase of 2.61% [54] 3.2.2 Key Data Tracking - **Downstream Spot Prices**: Provided price data for PP granules, PP powder, and other related products on January 9, 2026, as well as their price changes compared with the previous day, week, month, and year [59] - **Basis**: On January 9, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Business Society was 6,376.67 yuan/ton (+ 3.35%). The PP basis was - 137 yuan/ton (+ 41), and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 40 yuan/ton (- 19) [61] - **Month - spreads**: On January 9, 2026, the 1 - 5 month spread was - 212 yuan/ton (- 54), the 5 - 9 month spread was - 49 yuan/ton (- 29), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 261 yuan/ton (+ 83) [69] - **Cost**: Same as the plastic cost data, WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil prices increased, and the anthracite price remained unchanged [73] - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was - 516.36 yuan/ton, up 110.86 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the profit of coal - based PP was - 428.77 yuan/ton, up 141.48 yuan/ton [78] - **Supply**: This week, the operating rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises was 75.47%, down 1.27 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly output of PP granules was 77.92 tons, down 1.69% week - on - week, and the weekly output of PP powder was 6.75 tons, down 2.88% [82] - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many PP production lines of enterprises have been shut down for maintenance, and some of the restart times are undetermined [86] - **Demand**: This week, the average downstream operating rate was 52.58% (- 0.18). The operating rate of plastic weaving was 42.92% (- 0.22%), the operating rate of BOPP was 63.24% (unchanged), the operating rate of injection molding was 58.04% (- 0.08%), and the operating rate of pipes was 38.13% (- 0.34%) [88] - **Import and Export Profits**: This week, the polypropylene import profit was - 349.72 US dollars/ton, down 19.02 US dollars/ton from the previous week, and the export profit was - 8.91 US dollars/ton, down 5.17 US dollars/ton [94] - **Inventory**: This week, the domestic polypropylene inventory was 46.77 tons (- 4.69%); the inventory of the two major state - owned oil companies decreased by 16.14% week - on - week, the inventory of traders increased by 15.52%, and the port inventory increased by 7.24% [96] - **Finished Product and Raw Material Inventory**: The finished product inventory of large - scale plastic weaving enterprises was 941.95 tons, down 2.15% week - on - week, and the BOPP raw material inventory was 10.64 days, up 2.11% [100] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 15,445 lots, unchanged from the previous week [104]

Report Title - "Yangtze River Futures Urea Weekly Report: Stable Production and Sales, with Pressure on the Upside and Support on the Downside" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Urea检修装置有复产计划，日均产量提升，供应环比增加。各地区农业用备肥跟进，以储备采购为主，复合肥原料补库增加对尿素需求支撑，尿素企业库存水平同比偏低，近期产销偏稳，价格震荡运行，参考区间1730 - 1830元/吨 [2] Summary by Directory Market Changes - 受尿素产销偏稳和化工板块反弹影响，尿素盘面价格周初延续提涨，周尾窄幅回落。1月9日尿素2605合约收盘价1777元/吨，较上周上调28元/吨，涨幅1.6%，期间最高1794元/吨，最低1753元/吨。尿素现货河南市场日均价1730元/吨，较上周上调40元/吨，涨幅2.37% [2][5] - 尿素主力基差走强，1月9日河南市场主力基差 - 47元/吨，周度基差运行区间（ - 64）— （ - 43）元/吨 [2][9] - 尿素09合约价格增幅较大，尿素5 - 9价差走弱，1月9日5 - 9价差23元/吨，周度运行区间20 — 38元/吨 [2][9] Fundamental Changes Supply - 中国尿素开工负荷率84.74%，较上周提升1.46个百分点，其中气头企业开工负荷率51.57%，较上周降低4.83个百分点，尿素日均产量19.59万吨。四川、甘肃等装置检修或减量，湖北、河南等装置复产，下周甘肃和四川均有检修装置计划恢复，预计日产量增加 [2][12] Cost - 无烟煤市场价格降后趋稳运行，截至1月8日，山西晋城S0.4 - 0.5无烟洗小块含税价840 - 900元/吨，较上周价格重心降15元/吨 [2][16] Demand - 主要尿素生产企业平均预收5.6天，尿素企业周度产销率98.4% [17][18] - 农业需求方面，目前以储备采购流向居多 [2][18] - 工业需求方面，复合肥企业产能运行率37.17%，较上周提升3.28个百分点。复合肥库存69.52万吨，较上周基本持平，冬储持续兑现预收，原料市场预期高位波动对市场情绪有一定提振作用，产销持续跟进。三聚氰胺开工提升、脲醛树脂等其他工业需求支撑减弱 [2][18][22] Inventory - 尿素企业库存86.9万吨，较上周减少1.4万吨，同比去年同期减少69万吨。尿素港口库存27.8万吨，较上周减少2万吨。尿素注册仓单12850张，合计25.7万吨，同比去年同期增加5375张，合计10.75万吨 [2][29] Key Points to Follow - 复合肥开工情况、尿素装置减产检修情况、出口政策、煤炭价格波动 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating Core View of the Report - The glass market is affected by short - term factors such as mid - stream inventory transfer, coal speculation, and sporadic production line shutdowns, but the fundamental pattern remains unchanged. The inventory problem will still be prominent before and after the Spring Festival. The glass price is expected to run weakly, and investors are advised to look for opportunities to short at high prices [3] Summary by Directory 01 Investment Strategy - **Main Logic**: Last week, the glass futures rebounded strongly. The market focused on production line shutdowns around New Year's Day, a 1.8 - million - weight - box reduction in national inventory, and coal - related capital speculation. Supply decreased with two production lines cold - repaired, and the daily melting volume dropped below 150,000 tons. There was an arbitrage space for spot - futures traders. Demand saw an increase in speculative demand, and the floating glass factory inventory was transferred to the mid - stream. The coal speculation in the soda ash market was overbought, and manufacturers actively hedged. After the market sentiment fades, the price will run weakly. Technically, the short - side power is dominant and strengthening [3] - **Operation Strategy**: Short at high prices [3][4] 02 and 03 Market Review - **Spot Price**: As of January 9, the 5mm float glass market price was 1,020 yuan/ton (+20) in North China, 1,060 yuan/ton (unchanged) in Central China, and 1,180 yuan/ton (+10) in East China [11] - **Futures Price**: Last Friday, the glass 05 contract closed at 1,144 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan for the week [11] - **Price Difference**: As of January 9, the soda ash - glass price difference was 84 yuan/ton (-38). Last Friday, the glass 05 contract basis was - 84 yuan/ton (-17), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was - 94 yuan/ton (+10) [12][15] 04 Profit - **Natural Gas Process**: Cost was 1,569 yuan/ton (+2), and gross profit was - 389 yuan/ton (+8) - **Coal - Gas Process**: Cost was 1,170 yuan/ton (+9), and gross profit was - 150 yuan/ton (+11) - **Petroleum Coke Process**: Cost was 1,110 yuan/ton (+2), and gross profit was - 50 yuan/ton (-2) - **Fuel Price**: On January 9, the industrial natural gas price in Hebei was 4.31 yuan/m³, the CIF price of 3% sulfur shot coke from the US was 185 US dollars/ton, and the price of Yulin thermal coal was 595 yuan/ton [19] 05 Supply - Last Friday, the glass daily melting volume was 149,553.5 tons/day (-1,520). There were 214 production lines in operation, and two production lines were cold - repaired last week [21] 06 Inventory - As of January 9, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 55.518 million weight boxes (-1.348 million). Inventory decreased in all regions, with significant drops in North China, South China, and Shahe [24][25] 07 Deep - processing - On January 18, the comprehensive production - sales rate of float glass was 145% (+25%). On January 9, the LOW - E glass开工率 was 73.8% (+29.7%). In mid - December, the order days of glass deep - processing decreased to 8.6 days (-1.1) [29] 08 and 09 Demand - **Automobile**: In November, China's automobile production was 3.532 million vehicles (month - on - month increase of 173,000 and year - on - year increase of 95,000), and sales were 3.429 million vehicles (month - on - month increase of 107,000 and year - on - year increase of 113,000). The retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles was 1.321 million, with a penetration rate of 59.3% [38] - **Real Estate**: In November, real estate completion area was 45.9293 million m² (year - on - year decrease of 25%), new construction area was 43.9531 million m² (-28%), construction area was 31.2717 million m² (-42%), and commercial housing sales area was 67.1974 million m² (-18%). From December 28 to January 4, the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 2.74 million square meters (month - on - month decrease of 20% and year - on - year decrease of 9%). In November, real estate development investment was 502.82 billion yuan (year - on - year decrease of 31%) [43] 10 Soda Ash Price - **Spot Price**: As of last weekend, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash remained unchanged in North, East, and Central China, and was 1,425 yuan/ton in South China. The weekly changes in the ex - factory prices of some soda ash manufacturers were negative [44][46] - **Futures Price**: Last Friday, the soda ash 2605 contract closed at 1,228 yuan/ton (+19). The soda ash Central China 05 basis was 22 yuan/ton (-69) [48][49] 11 Cost - end Soda Ash - Profit - As of last Friday, the soda ash profit was - 40 yuan/ton (-5). The cost of the ammonia - soda process was 1,313 yuan/ton (+1), with a gross profit of - 58 yuan/ton (+38); the cost of the co - production process was 1,727 yuan/ton (-11), with a gross profit of - 40 yuan/ton (-5) [50][52] 12 Cost - end Soda Ash - Inventory Transfer - **Output**: Last week, domestic soda ash production was 753,600 tons (month - on - month increase of 56,500), including 404,500 tons of heavy soda ash (month - on - month increase of 33,500) and 349,100 tons of light soda ash (month - on - month increase of 23,000) - **Warehouse Receipts**: At the end of last week, the number of soda ash warehouse receipts on the exchange was 4,920 (+24) - **Inventory**: As of January 9, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.5727 million tons (month - on - month increase of 164,400), including 736,200 tons of heavy soda ash (month - on - month increase of 60,100) and 836,500 tons of light soda ash (month - on - month increase of 104,300) [64] 13 Cost - end Soda Ash - Apparent Demand - **Apparent Consumption**: Last week, the apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 344,400 tons (week - on - week decrease of 53,500), and for light soda ash was 244,800 tons (week - on - week decrease of 84,600) - **Production - sales Rate**: Last week, the soda ash production - sales rate was 78.18% (month - on - month decrease of 26.15%) - **Glass Factory Inventory**: In November, the soda ash inventory days of sample float glass factories were 24.1 days [67][68]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Macro - finance - Index futures: Bullish in the medium to long term, buy on dips [1][5] - Treasury bonds: Range - bound [1][5] Black building materials - Coking coal: Short - term trading [1][7] - Rebar: Range trading [1][7] - Glass: Sell on rallies [1][8] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Hold long positions cautiously [1][10] - Aluminum: Strengthen observation [1][12] - Nickel: Observe or sell on rallies [1][14] - Tin: Range trading [1][15] - Gold: Range trading [1][16] - Silver: Bullish [1][16] - Lithium carbonate: Range - bound [1][18] Energy and chemicals - PVC: Adopt a low - buying strategy [1][18] - Caustic soda: Temporarily observe [1][20] - Soda ash: Temporarily observe [1][28] - Styrene: Range trading [1][22] - Rubber: Range trading [1][22] - Urea: Range trading [1][24] - Methanol: Range trading [1][25] - Polyolefins: Bearish and range - bound [1][27] Cotton textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: Bullish and range - bound [1][29] - Apples: Bullish and range - bound [1][31] - Jujubes: Rebound from the bottom [1][32] Agricultural and livestock products - Hogs: Sell on rallies for near - term contracts, cautiously bullish for far - term contracts [1][33] - Eggs: Wait to hedge at high prices for the 02 contract [1][34] - Corn: Cautiously chase highs in the short term, hedge at high prices for grain - holding entities [1][36] - Soybean meal: Bullish for near - term contracts, bearish for far - term contracts [1][39] - Oils: Limited rebound for soybean and palm oils, bearish for rapeseed oil [1][40] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products in different industries based on their current market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and macro - factors. It analyzes the short - term and long - term trends of each product, taking into account factors such as production, demand, inventory, and policy changes [1][5][7] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Index futures**: The US economic data and geopolitical risks may cause index futures to fluctuate. However, considering the PMI recovery in December and expectations of early policy support in the new year, the market is expected to develop further. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium to long term [5] - **Treasury bonds**: The decline in bond market decline momentum has appeared, and there may be short - term support. But in the medium term, it still faces supply pressure and rising inflation expectations. Treasury bonds are expected to move in a range [5] Black building materials - **Coking coal**: The market is in a game between strong bearish factors and weak marginal support. The short - term balance of power between bulls and bears suggests range trading on the right side [7] - **Rebar**: Futures prices rebounded to above the electric furnace valley - electricity cost. In the short term, it is in a policy vacuum period with weakening export expectations and a seasonal weakening of the supply - demand pattern. It is recommended to focus on cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities [7] - **Glass**: Although there has been a short - term rebound due to factors such as production line shutdowns and inventory reduction, the fundamental pattern remains unchanged. The price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [9] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Driven by macro - sentiment and funds, the price has reached a high level, but the current demand is weak. The supply of copper concentrate is tight, and the long - term price is expected to rise. In the short term, it may maintain a wide - range high - level shock [10] - **Aluminum**: The current supply is in a weak state, and the price is mainly driven by expectations and funds. With increasing production capacity and weakening demand, the upward pressure is large. It is recommended to observe the policy changes [12] - **Nickel**: Although the price has rebounded due to factors such as quota cuts, the long - term oversupply is expected to continue. It is recommended to observe or sell on rallies [14] - **Tin**: The supply is tight, and the downstream demand is recovering. The price is expected to be bullish in a range. It is recommended to build long positions on dips and pay attention to supply and demand changes [15] - **Gold and silver**: Affected by factors such as the US employment data and interest rate cut expectations, the prices are expected to rise in the medium term. Gold is recommended for range trading, and silver is recommended to hold long positions [16] - **Lithium carbonate**: The supply and demand are in a state of balance, and the price is expected to move in a range [18] Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: The current supply - demand situation is weak, but the low valuation and potential policy support suggest a low - buying strategy. It is necessary to pay attention to policies, export, and cost factors [18] - **Caustic soda**: There is short - term delivery pressure, and the medium - term support depends on the improvement of the commodity atmosphere. It is recommended to observe the changes in supply and demand [20] - **Soda ash**: The supply is in excess, but the cost support is strong. It is recommended to temporarily leave the market and observe [28] - **Styrene**: The current valuation is high, and the short - term is recommended to be bearish. It is necessary to pay attention to cost and supply - demand changes in the long term [22] - **Rubber**: The supply is increasing during the high - yielding season, and the price may continue to correct. It is recommended to trade in a range [22] - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is relatively stable. The price is expected to move in a range. It is necessary to pay attention to the start - up of compound fertilizer plants and other factors [24] - **Methanol**: The supply in the mainland is recovering, and the downstream demand is weak. The price in some areas is strong due to geopolitical and port factors. It is recommended to trade in a range [25] - **Polyolefins**: The supply is loose, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be bearish in a range. It is necessary to pay attention to downstream demand and raw material prices [27] Cotton textile industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: Affected by the global supply - demand adjustment and policy expectations, the price is expected to be bullish in a range [29] - **Apples**: The market is relatively stable, and the price is expected to be bullish in a range [31] - **Jujubes**: The acquisition in Xinjiang is over, and the price is expected to rebound from the bottom [32] Agricultural and livestock products - **Hogs**: In the short term, the price fluctuates due to the game between supply and demand. In the long term, the price is expected to be weak in the first half of the year and may strengthen in the second half, but it is still cautious. It is recommended to sell on rallies for near - term contracts and be cautiously bullish for far - term contracts [33] - **Eggs**: The short - term price may rise seasonally, but the supply is sufficient. In the long term, the supply pressure still exists. It is recommended to wait to hedge at high prices for the 02 and 03 contracts after the Spring Festival [34] - **Corn**: The short - term price has a selling pressure, and the long - term demand will gradually recover, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs in the short term and hedge at high prices for grain - holding entities [36] - **Soybean meal**: The short - term price is expected to be bullish in a range, and the long - term price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to go long on dips for the M2603 contract and pay attention to the pressure levels [39] - **Oils**: The short - term rebound of soybean and palm oils is limited, and the rapeseed oil is bearish. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs for soybean and palm oils and gradually exit long positions for rapeseed oil [40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The rebound space of the black sector is limited, and attention should be paid to the spot-futures positive arbitrage opportunities. The coal and coke sectors are expected to fluctuate, and short-term trading is recommended for iron ore. [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Black Sector Trend Comparison - Last week, the black sector strengthened collectively, with coking coal leading the rise. In terms of index涨跌幅度, the strength relationship among varieties was coking coal > coke > iron ore > rebar > hot-rolled coil. [4] 02 Futures Market Rise and Fall Comparison - The overall atmosphere in the futures market was warm, with commodity prices generally rising, and the non-ferrous sector being the strongest. [4] 03 Spot Prices - Spot prices were stable with a slight upward trend, and iron ore had the largest increase. [13] 04 Profit and Valuation - Steel mill profitability remained stable, and the valuation of rebar futures was neutral. [14] 05 Steel Supply and Demand - Last week, steel production increased, demand decreased, and inventories began to accumulate, showing a seasonal weakening in the supply-demand pattern. [4][5] 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Port iron ore inventories continued to increase significantly, while steel mill iron ore inventories increased slightly. Steel mill restocking before the Spring Festival was not obvious. Iron ore shipments declined from the high level, but arrivals were still at a high level. With the resumption of steel mill production in January, pig iron production rebounded slightly from the low level, and it was expected to be in a pattern of inventory accumulation in the short term. [5] 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Last week, raw coal production rebounded, and coking coal inventories continued to accumulate. However, the news of coal mine capacity reduction boosted the market, and the near-month coking coal strengthened. [5] 08 Coke Supply and Demand - Coke production increased slightly month-on-month, and inventories changed little. The spot price of coke remained stable last week, and the profit of coking plants was already low, with limited room for further compression. However, the premium of coke futures was already large. [5] 09 Variety Spreads - The mill's disk profit deteriorated, and the rebar-iron ore price ratio declined. [32] 10 Key Data/Policy/Information - There were various domestic and international policies, news, and events, including geopolitical events, production plans of OPEC+, regulatory adjustments of the futures exchange, and industry regulations. The EU carbon tariff was officially implemented at the beginning of 2026, which would significantly increase the cost of steel exports to the EU. [37]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term, with a strategy of buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; rebar is for range trading; glass is better to be on the sidelines [1][7] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended to hold long positions cautiously; aluminum suggests more waiting and watching; nickel advises waiting and watching or shorting on rallies; tin, gold, and silver are for range trading; lithium carbonate is expected to trade in a range [1][10] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; caustic soda and soda ash are to be watched temporarily; polyolefins are expected to trade weakly sideways [1][18] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be slightly bullish; apples are slightly bullish; red dates are expected to rebound from the bottom [1][26] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs are to be shorted on rallies in the near - term contracts and cautiously bullish in the far - term contracts; eggs' 02 contract is suitable for hedging on rallies for breeding enterprises; corn is to avoid chasing high in the short term and hedging on rallies for grain - holding entities; soybean meal is to be treated bullishly in the near - term and bearishly in the far - term; oils have limited rebound, with soybean and palm oil not recommended to chase the rally and rapeseed oil showing a weak trend [1][30] Core Viewpoints The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on macro - economic events, supply - demand relationships, cost - profit factors, and policy expectations. Different products face different market situations, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed according to their characteristics [1][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: In the medium to long term, it is optimistic. After December's PMI returned to expansion and with strong expectations of early policy support at the beginning of the year, the market may develop further. However, geopolitical and precious metal risks increase, and the potential for a callback should be noticed [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: They are expected to trade sideways. The current low static returns of bonds, high - intensity long - term bond supply, and short - lived market reactions to positive factors do not provide sufficient reasons for institutions to increase bond allocations significantly [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: It is in a state of short - term balance between bulls and bears. The bearish logic is high imported Mongolian coal inventory, weak demand, while the bullish side relies on domestic mine production cuts and cost support. Short - term trading is recommended [7] - **Rebar**: It is expected to trade in a range. The futures price is above the electric furnace off - peak electricity cost, with neutral valuation. After major meetings, the expected policies are stable, and the supply - demand pattern has weakened with increased production, decreased demand, and seasonal inventory accumulation [7] - **Glass**: It is better to wait and watch. Although there are positive expectations on the supply side, the demand is weak. There are still potential positive driving factors in the short term, but the overall market is complex, and the opportunity of going long on glass and short on soda ash can be considered [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It has reached new highs and is recommended to hold long positions cautiously. In the short term, it is in a high - volatility and high - uncertainty stage, with potential over - valuation. However, in the long term, due to supply shortages and increased demand, it still has upward potential [10] - **Aluminum**: It has fallen from high levels. It is recommended to strengthen waiting and watching. The current supply - demand situation is weak, and the upward pressure is large, especially considering the seasonal impact and new production capacity [12] - **Nickel**: It is expected to trade sideways. It is advised to wait and watch or short on rallies. The overall nickel market is in a state of excess, and although there are short - term price rebounds, the long - term excess situation is expected to continue [13][14] - **Tin**: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream consumption is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to overseas supply disturbances and downstream demand recovery [14] - **Gold and Silver**: They are expected to trade in a range. Supported by the US GDP growth and Fed's policies, and with the weakening of the US economic data, their medium - term price centers are expected to rise. Gold is recommended for range trading, and silver is recommended to hold long positions with caution in new positions [15][16] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply and demand are in a state of game. Although the downstream demand is strong, there are still uncertainties in supply, such as the situation of mines in Yichun [17][18] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: It is expected to trade in a low - level range. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. However, due to low valuation and potential policy and cost - side disturbances, it may continue to trade in a wide low - level range [18] - **Caustic Soda**: It is in a low - level range and recommended to wait and watch temporarily. There are short - term delivery pressures, and the medium - term support depends on the improvement of related commodity atmospheres, but the rebound space is limited without production cuts [20] - **Styrene**: It is expected to trade in a range. The current valuation is relatively high, and considering factors such as overseas supply and the Spring Festival effect, it is advised to be cautious and bearish in the short term [20] - **Rubber**: It is expected to trade in a range. During the high - yield period of Southeast Asian rubber tapping, the supply increases, but there are also factors supporting the price. The inventory is rising, and the tire production capacity utilization rate is affected by holidays [21] - **Urea**: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply and demand are both decreasing. The production is reduced due to maintenance, and the agricultural and industrial demand is also changing. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [22] - **Methanol**: It is expected to trade in a range. The domestic supply is recovering, the demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry is stable, but the traditional downstream demand is weak. The price is affected by geopolitical and port arrival factors [24] - **Polyolefins**: They are expected to trade weakly sideways. In December, the price was under pressure due to supply and demand. Although there is a supply reduction expectation in the first quarter of 2026, the demand improvement is limited, and the upward space is restricted [24][25] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to wait and watch temporarily. The supply is in excess, but with the reduction of supply and cost support, the downward space may be limited [26] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: They are expected to be slightly bullish. According to the USDA report, the global cotton supply and demand situation is adjusted, and with stable consumption and policy expectations, the price may maintain a slightly bullish trend [26][28] - **Apples**: They are expected to be slightly bullish. The market of late - harvested Fuji apples in storage is stable, and the sales in different producing areas have their own characteristics [28] - **Red Dates**: They are expected to rebound from the bottom. The acquisition in Xinjiang is almost over, and the market transactions in different regions have different performances [29][30] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: In the short term, the price fluctuates and is under pressure. In the long term, although there is capacity reduction, it is still above the equilibrium level, and the cost is decreasing. It is recommended to short on rallies in the near - term contracts and be cautiously bullish in the far - term contracts, and the industry can hedge on rallies [30][31] - **Eggs**: The current basis is low and the valuation is high. In the short term, the price may rise seasonally, but it is not advisable to short. In the medium - term, the new - laying pressure is small, and in the long - term, the supply pressure still exists. It is recommended to hedge on rallies for the 02 and 03 contracts [33][34] - **Corn**: In the short term, the upward driving force of the spot price is insufficient, and it is not advisable to chase the high. In the long term, the demand will gradually release, and there is strong support at the bottom, but the supply - demand pattern in the 2025/2026 year is relatively loose, which limits the upward space [35][36] - **Soybean Meal**: It is expected to trade in a range. In the short term, the M2603 contract can be bought on dips, and attention should be paid to the pressure levels. The far - term 05 contract is affected by different factors and has different price trends [37][38] - **Oils**: The rebound of soybean and palm oil is limited, and it is not recommended to chase the rally. Rapeseed oil shows a weak trend, and previous long positions should be gradually liquidated [38][43]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are medium- to long-term bullish, recommend buying on dips; treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal for short-term trading; rebar for range trading; glass is advisable to wait and see [1][8][10] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Copper, hold long positions cautiously; aluminum, strengthen observation; nickel, wait and see or short on rallies; tin, range trading; gold, range trading; silver, range trading; lithium carbonate, range-bound [1][11][15][17] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, range trading; caustic soda, wait and see temporarily; soda ash, wait and see temporarily; styrene, range trading; rubber, range trading; urea, range trading; methanol, range trading; polyolefins, weak and volatile [1][19][21][25] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn, expected to be slightly bullish; apples, slightly bullish; jujubes, expected to rebound from the bottom [1][27][29][30] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs, short on rallies for near-term contracts, cautiously bullish for far-term contracts; eggs, breeding enterprises can hedge on rallies for the current 02 contract; corn, short-term cautious about chasing highs, grain holders can hedge on rallies; soybean meal, treat near-term contracts strongly on dips, far-term contracts weakly; oils, the rebound of the three major oils is limited, cautious about chasing rallies [1][31][34][36][38][39] Core Views - The market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical events, economic data, and policy expectations. Different futures varieties show different trends and investment opportunities due to their own supply and demand fundamentals and external factors [5][8][11] - For most varieties, short-term market fluctuations are relatively large, and medium- to long-term trends need to pay attention to factors such as supply and demand changes, cost support, and policy orientation [11][15][32] Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Medium- to long-term bullish, recommend buying on dips. Affected by geopolitical events and economic data at home and abroad, there are potential callback risks in the short term, but the market is expected to develop further in the long term [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to trade sideways. The current low static yield of bonds and high - intensity long - term bond supply make it difficult for institutions to significantly increase their bond allocations [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short-term trading. The market is in a game between strong bearish realities and weak marginal support, with clear short - selling logic and some bullish factors [8] - **Rebar**: Range trading. Driven by cost and affected by policies and supply - demand relationships, short - term trading is recommended [8] - **Glass**: Wait and see. The supply side has positive expectations, but the demand side is weak. There are opportunities for long glass and short soda ash, and the price is expected to be short - term bullish [10] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Cautiously hold long positions. The price has entered a high - volatility stage in the short term, but there is still upward space in the long term due to supply shortages [11] - **Aluminum**: Strengthen observation. The price is driven by expectations and capital, but there is great fundamental pressure in the short term, and the upward space is limited [13] - **Nickel**: Wait and see or short on rallies. The market is in an oversupply situation in the long term, but there is a short - term rebound [15] - **Tin**: Range trading. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream consumption is weak. The price is expected to be bullish and volatile [15] - **Gold and Silver**: Range trading. Affected by factors such as the US economic data and the Fed's monetary policy, the medium - term price center moves up [17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound. The supply and demand are in a state of game, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate [19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Range trading. The supply and demand are weak in reality, but the valuation is low, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate widely at a low level [19] - **Caustic Soda**: Wait and see temporarily. There is short - term delivery pressure, and the medium - term rebound space is limited [21] - **Soda Ash**: Wait and see temporarily. The supply is in surplus, but the cost support is strong, and the downward space of the disk is limited [27] - **Styrene**: Range trading. The current valuation is high, and it is recommended to be cautiously bearish in the short term, and pay attention to the cost and supply - demand pattern in the long term [21] - **Rubber**: Range trading. The cost support is strong, but the downstream buying is weak, and the price is expected to be bullish and volatile [22] - **Urea**: Range trading. The supply and demand are both decreasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [23] - **Methanol**: Range trading. The supply in the mainland recovers, and the downstream demand is weak. The price in some areas is bullish due to geopolitical and port factors [25] - **Polyolefins**: Weak and volatile. The demand improvement is insufficient, and the upward space is limited, but there is a short - term rebound expectation [26] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Slightly bullish. Affected by factors such as global cotton supply and demand and policy expectations, the price is expected to be stable and slightly bullish [29] - **Apples**: Slightly bullish. The market price is relatively stable, and different regions have different trading situations [29] - **Jujubes**: Rebound from the bottom. The acquisition in Xinjiang is coming to an end, and the market trading atmosphere varies in different regions [30] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: Short on rallies for near - term contracts, cautiously bullish for far - term contracts. The short - term supply and demand are in a game, and the long - term supply is expected to increase in the first quarter, and the price is not optimistic before the Spring Festival [32] - **Eggs**: Range trading. The short - term price has a seasonal increase expectation, but the supply is sufficient, and the long - term supply pressure still exists [34][35] - **Corn**: Weak and volatile. The short - term price increase is limited, and the long - term demand is gradually released, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [36][37] - **Soybean Meal**: Range trading. The short - term domestic and foreign market conditions are complex, and different strategies are recommended for near - term and far - term contracts [38][39] - **Oils**: The rebound is limited. The short - term trends of the three major oils are expected to diverge, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing rallies for soybean and palm oils, and gradually liquidate long positions for rapeseed oil [39][44][45]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium - long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting government bonds to move in a range [1] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, and it's advisable to wait and see for glass [1] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Cautiously holding long positions for copper, strengthening observation for aluminum, suggesting waiting and seeing or shorting on rallies for nickel, range trading for tin, gold, silver, and expecting lithium carbonate to move in a range [1] - **Energy Chemicals**: Range trading for PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol; temporarily waiting and seeing for caustic soda and soda ash; expecting polyolefins to be weakly volatile [1] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Bullish on cotton and cotton yarn, apple, with jujube expected to rebound from the bottom [1] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Short - term shorting on rallies for near - month hog contracts and cautiously bullish on far - month contracts; current 02 egg contracts can be hedged on rallies for breeding enterprises; cautiously chasing highs for corn in the short term and hedging on rallies for grain holders; near - month soybean meal to be treated strongly on dips and far - month weakly; three major oils' rebound is limited, and previous long positions should be gradually liquidated [1] Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products in different industries. It analyzes the supply - demand situation, price trends, market news, and policy factors of each product, and gives corresponding trading strategies such as long - term bullish, short - term trading, range trading, and waiting and seeing. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Medium - long term is bullish, buy on dips. After the PMI returned to expansion in December and with strong expectations of policy front - loading at the beginning of the year, the market may develop further. Currently close to the previous high, pay attention to whether it breaks through or retraces [5] - **Government Bonds**: Expected to move in a range. Recent positive news such as fund fee regulations and bank EVE indicators have been quickly digested, and the current low static bond yields and high - intensity long - term bond supply do not support large - scale institutional bond purchases [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading. The core contradiction lies in the game between the strong bearish reality and weak marginal support. The short - term supply - demand pattern is difficult to change, and it is advisable to trade on the right side of the range [7] - **Rebar**: Range trading. The price bottomed out and rebounded on Tuesday. The static valuation is neutral, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not large. Pay attention to the weekly steel export data in January [7] - **Glass**: It's advisable to wait and see. The supply - side is expected to be positive, but the demand is weak. There are still positive drivers for the price in the short term, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on glass and short on soda ash [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Cautiously hold long positions. The price is in a high - volatility and high - uncertainty stage. Although there is medium - long - term support on the supply side, the current price has over - reflected the positives, and there is a risk of retracement. It may maintain a high - level wide - range shock [10] - **Aluminum**: Strengthen observation. The price is mainly driven by expectations and capital, but the fundamentals are weak. The upward pressure is large in January, and the upward space should be viewed cautiously [12] - **Nickel**: Wait and see or short on rallies. The nickel market has an overall surplus situation in the medium - long term, although there was a short - term rebound [14] - **Tin**: Range trading. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream demand in the consumer electronics and photovoltaic sectors is weak. It is expected to maintain a strong - side shock [14] - **Silver and Gold**: Range trading. Supported by liquidity and the weakening of the US economic data, the medium - term price center of gravity moves up. For silver, hold long positions cautiously; for gold, trade in the range and be cautious about chasing highs [16] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Move in a range. The supply and demand are both in a state of change, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate [17][18] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: Range trading at a low level. The overall supply - demand is still weak, but the low valuation and potential policy and cost disturbances should be noted [18] - **Caustic Soda**: Temporarily wait and see. There is short - term delivery pressure, and the rebound space is limited without production cuts [20] - **Styrene**: Range trading. The current valuation is high, and it should be viewed cautiously and weakly. Pay attention to the cost and supply - demand pattern in the medium - long term [20] - **Rubber**: Range trading. The cost support is strengthening, but the inventory is increasing, and the tire production capacity utilization rate is mixed. The price shows a strong - side shock [22] - **Urea**: Range trading. The supply and demand are both decreasing, and the price fluctuates widely [23] - **Methanol**: Range trading. The supply in the mainland recovers, the downstream demand is mixed, and the price in some areas is strong due to geopolitical and port factors [25] - **Polyolefins**: Weakly volatile. The supply is expected to shrink in the first quarter of 2026, but the demand improvement is insufficient, and the upward space is limited [26] - **Soda Ash**: Temporarily wait and see. The supply is in surplus, and the cost support is strong. It is advisable to leave the market and wait and see [27] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Bullish. The global cotton supply and demand are adjusted, and the current price maintains a strong - side shock [29] - **Apple**: Bullish. The market of late - harvested Fuji apples in the warehouse is stable, with slow trading [29] - **Jujube**: Rebound from the bottom. The acquisition in Xinjiang is almost over, and the market trading atmosphere is different in different regions [30] Agricultural and Livestock - **Hog**: Short - term shorting on rallies for near - month contracts and cautiously bullish on far - month contracts. The supply pressure exists in the short term, and the price is expected to be under pressure before and after the Spring Festival. The long - term price increase is limited, and hedging can be carried out on rallies [32] - **Egg**: Range trading. The current 02 contract can be hedged on rallies for breeding enterprises. The short - term price may rise seasonally, but the supply is sufficient. The medium - long - term supply pressure still exists [36] - **Corn**: Weakly volatile. In the short term, there is no strong driving force for the price to rise, and it is advisable to be cautious about chasing highs. In the medium - long term, the demand will gradually be released, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [39] - **Soybean Meal**: Range trading. The near - month 03 contract can be treated strongly on dips, and the far - month 05 contract is under pressure [40] - **Oils**: The rebound is limited. In the short term, the fundamentals lack positive factors, and the upward momentum is insufficient. In the medium - long term, there are still some positive points [46]