Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are long - term optimistic, buy on dips; treasury bonds are expected to move sideways [1][5][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal for short - term trading; rebar for range trading; glass is expected to be slightly bullish [1][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper to hold long positions cautiously; aluminum to strengthen observation; nickel to observe or sell short on rallies; tin, gold, and silver for range trading; lithium carbonate for range - bound oscillations [1][11][13][15] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol for range trading; caustic soda and soda ash to wait and see; polyolefins to oscillate weakly [1][19][21][24] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn, apples are expected to be slightly bullish; red dates to rebound from the bottom [1][27][28] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: For live pigs, short - term contracts to sell short on rallies, long - term contracts to be cautiously bullish; for eggs, breeding enterprises can hedge on rallies; for corn, short - term to be cautious about chasing highs, grain holders to hedge on rallies; for soybean meal, short - term contracts to be treated strongly on dips, long - term contracts to be treated weakly; for oils, the rebound of the three major oils is limited, and previous long positions should be gradually liquidated [1][29][31][32] Core Views - The A - share market has a positive start in 2026, with high trading volume and broad - based gains. Goldman Sachs is optimistic about the Chinese stock market in 2026 and 2027. The bond market is affected by low yields and high supply, and treasury bonds are expected to move sideways [5] - In the black building materials market, the coking coal market is in a game between bearish and bullish factors, and rebar is affected by supply and demand and policies [8] - The non - ferrous metals market is complex. Copper has long - term supply support but short - term over - priced risks; aluminum is affected by fundamentals and policies; nickel is expected to remain in surplus; tin is affected by supply and demand; precious metals are affected by the US economic situation [11][13][15] - The energy chemicals market is generally weak. PVC, caustic soda, and other products are affected by factors such as cost, supply, and demand [19][21] - In the cotton textile and agricultural livestock markets, products such as cotton, apples, and red dates are affected by supply, demand, and policies; live pigs, eggs, and other products are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and seasonality [27][29][31] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: On the first trading day, A - shares opened and closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 4000 points and trading volume exceeding 2.5 trillion. Goldman Sachs is optimistic about the Chinese stock market in 2026 and 2027, expecting annual growth of 15% - 20%. The market is expected to develop further, and investors can buy on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The market has quickly digested the positive news about fund fees and bank EVE indicators. Due to low bond yields and high supply, treasury bonds are expected to move sideways [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The market is in a game between bearish factors (high imported Mongolian coal inventory, weak demand) and bullish factors (domestic coal mine production cuts, cost support). Short - term trading is recommended [8] - **Rebar**: The futures price was weak on Monday. The valuation is neutral, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant in the short term. Range trading is recommended [8] - **Glass**: Supply - side factors such as production line cold repairs are positive, but demand is weak. The price is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term, and there are opportunities for long glass and short soda ash [10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price has reached a high level, but there are short - term over - priced risks. The supply is expected to be sufficient in January, and the price may fluctuate widely at a high level. Long positions should be held cautiously [11][12] - **Aluminum**: The alumina market is in a weak situation, and the aluminum price is driven by expectations and funds. The upward pressure is large in January, and observation is recommended [13] - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel ore is expected to decrease, but the overall nickel market is in surplus. The price may rebound in the short term, and investors can observe or sell short on rallies [15] - **Tin**: The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, and range trading is recommended [16] - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by the US economic situation, the prices are expected to move sideways. Long positions in silver can be held, and range trading is recommended for gold [17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is affected by factors such as mine production and imports, and the demand is strong. The price is expected to oscillate [19] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is under pressure, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and range trading is recommended [19] - **Caustic Soda**: There is short - term delivery pressure, and the medium - term support depends on the improvement of the alumina market. Temporary observation is recommended [21] - **Styrene**: The current valuation is high, and the price is expected to oscillate. Range trading is recommended [21] - **Rubber**: The cost is supported, but the inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate [22] - **Urea**: The supply is decreasing, and the demand is also weak. The price is expected to oscillate widely, and range trading is recommended [23] - **Methanol**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate, and range trading is recommended [24] - **Polyolefins**: The supply is expected to decrease in the first quarter of 2026, but the demand improvement is limited. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, and the LP spread is expected to widen [25] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is affected by downstream industries. Temporary observation is recommended [25] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Affected by the global cotton supply - demand situation and policies, the price is expected to be slightly bullish [27] - **Apples**: The market is stable, and the price is expected to be slightly bullish [27] - **Red Dates**: The acquisition in Xinjiang is over, and the price is expected to rebound from the bottom [28] Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: In the short term, the price is oscillating due to supply - demand games. In the long term, the supply is expected to increase in the first quarter, and the price is under pressure. Short - term contracts can be sold short on rallies, and long - term contracts can be cautiously bullish [29] - **Eggs**: The short - term supply - demand is balanced, and the price is at a low level. In the long term, the supply pressure still exists. Breeding enterprises can hedge on rallies [31][32] - **Corn**: The short - term price increase is limited, and long - term demand is gradually released but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. Short - term caution is needed when chasing highs, and long - term there is strong support at the bottom [34] - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term price is affected by factors such as US soybean exports and South American weather. Range trading is recommended, with short - term contracts treated strongly on dips and long - term contracts treated weakly [35][36] - **Oils**: The short - term rebound of the three major oils is limited, and previous long positions should be gradually liquidated. In the long term, there are potential positive factors [41][42]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the pig market, short - term price fluctuations intensify due to supply - demand games, while long - term prices are expected to gradually rise but with limited upside potential. For the egg industry, short - term prices may increase seasonally during the Spring Festival, but long - term supply pressure remains. In the corn market, short - term selling pressure needs to be digested, and long - term prices are supported at the bottom but with limited upward movement [5][61][100]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Pig 3.1.1 Market Review - In December, pig prices first stabilized and then rose. Spot prices increased due to factors like the release of second - fattening and epidemic pigs, and terminal consumption growth. Futures prices also rebounded, with the 03 contract's premium increasing and the basis strengthening. After the New Year's Day stocking ended, slaughter volume declined, and spot prices stagnated and fell [7][10]. 3.1.2 Supply - The inventory of breeding sows is gradually being reduced but remains above the normal level. Pig production performance has improved, and the supply of pigs in the first quarter of 2026 is expected to be high. Pig inventory is slowly increasing, and the proportion of standard and large pigs is rising. The monthly average slaughter weight is at a high level in the same period [11][16][24]. 3.1.3 Demand - In December, the slaughter rate and volume of slaughterhouses increased. After the New Year's Day stocking ended, slaughter volume may decline, but it may increase again in January due to Spring Festival stocking. The frozen product inventory is at a high level, and its support for consumption has weakened, and it may suppress supply before and after the Spring Festival [34][38][41]. 3.1.4 Cost and Profit - Pig prices rebounded in December, and breeding losses narrowed. Feed and piglet prices fluctuated slightly, and the long - term fattening cost remained low [44]. 3.1.5 Policy - The government aims to guide the orderly exit of production capacity and stabilize prices. It requires the top 25 large enterprises to reduce 1 million breeding sows by the end of January, lower the weight, and prohibit second - fattening. The state mainly conducts reserve rotation [50]. 3.1.6 Driving Summary - Short - term: Price fluctuations intensify due to supply - demand games. Long - term: The price in the first half of the year is not optimistic, and the price in the second half of the year is expected to be strong, but the increase is limited [53][54]. 3.1.7 Valuation - Near - term contracts are undervalued, and far - term contracts are neutrally valued [55]. 3.1.8 Strategy - For near - term contracts, adopt a short - selling strategy when prices rebound. For far - term contracts, be cautious about a bullish outlook, and the industry can hedge at a profit [5]. 3.2 Egg 3.2.1 Market Review - In December, egg prices continued to fluctuate at a low level, and the futures price mainly declined, with a slight rebound at the end of the month. The current main contract has a slight premium over the spot, and the basis is at a low level in the same period [67]. 3.2.2 Supply - The number of newly opened - laying hens in January is average. The inventory of laying hens is slowly declining, but the overall supply pressure is still large. In the long - term, the number of newly opened - laying hens from February to May 2026 is expected to decrease, but the supply pressure relief needs time [61][63]. 3.2.3 Demand - In January, as the Spring Festival approaches, demand is expected to improve. The high cost - performance of eggs also drives substitution demand [63]. 3.2.4 Driving Summary - Short - term: Egg prices are expected to rise during the Spring Festival, but the increase is limited due to sufficient supply. Long - term: Supply pressure is expected to gradually ease, but it takes time, and attention should be paid to culling and external factors [91][92]. 3.2.5 Valuation - The current basis is low, and the overall valuation is high [94]. 3.2.6 Strategy - Do not short the market in the short - term. Wait for the spot price to rise less than expected and then hedge the 02 and 03 contracts after the Spring Festival [63]. 3.3 Corn 3.3.1 Market Review - In December, corn prices rose and fell alternately. The spot price had strong support at the bottom, and the futures price first fell and then rose. The current main contract has a discount to the spot, and the basis is at a high level in the same period [100][101][104]. 3.3.2 Supply - The national grain sales progress is 45%, and the supply in the producing areas has slowed down. The import of corn in November increased, and the inventory in the north and south ports changed. The 2025/2026 corn supply is expected to be in balance with demand, with limited upward price space [100][105][107]. 3.3.3 Demand - The high inventory of pigs and poultry supports the rigid demand for feed. However, if the corn price continues to rise, the demand for wheat as a substitute may increase. The deep - processing demand is limited due to low profits and high product inventory [100][115][126]. 3.3.4 Driving Summary - Short - term: There is still selling pressure to be released. Long - term: The cost has strong support, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, limiting the upward space [100]. 3.3.5 Valuation - The futures price is at a relatively low level, and the basis is at a high level in the same period, with a neutral - low valuation [135]. 3.3.6 Strategy - Be cautious about chasing high in the short - term, and grain - holding entities can hedge when prices rebound. In the long - term, the demand will gradually be released, but the increase is limited [100].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1. Soybean Meal - The pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness continues under the expectation of inventory reduction. The 03 contract is strong but with limited upside, while the 05 contract is weak but with strengthened bottom support due to geopolitical risks [5][8]. 2.2. Oils and Fats - In the short term, the rebound of oils and fats is limited. In the long term, there is a possibility of bottom - touching and rebound, but there are uncertainties and the supply of rapeseed oil is expected to be more abundant [75][216][217]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Soybean Meal 3.1.1. Period and Spot Ends - As of December 31, the East China spot price was 3050 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton monthly; the M2605 contract closed at 2749 yuan/ton, up 96 yuan/ton monthly; the basis was 05 + 300 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton. The US soybean price was weak, while the domestic spot price was strong due to customs clearance delays and inventory reduction expectations [8][10]. 3.1.2. Supply End - The global soybean supply - demand pattern has tightened slightly. The 2025/26 global soybean output is 422 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.39 million tons. China's soybean imports in 2025/26 are expected to be 112 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4 million tons. The supply will first tighten and then loosen [8]. 3.1.3. Demand End - The current demand for soybean meal remains high. As of December 26, the national soybean inventory was 6.5444 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 605,500 tons (8.41%); the soybean meal inventory of full - sample oil mills was 1.1675 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,100 tons (1.35%) [8]. 3.1.4. Cost End - The cost of Brazilian soybeans in 2025/26 is 950 cents/bushel. The domestic soybean meal cost from May to August is estimated to be 2580 yuan/ton, and from July to September it is 2760 yuan/ton. The cost of US soybeans in the second half of 2025/26 is 1000 cents/bushel, and the domestic import cost is 3000 yuan/ton. The Brazilian soybean crushing profit is around 30 yuan/ton [8]. 3.1.5. Global Soybean Supply - Demand - The global soybean output is expected to be 426 million tons, and the output - consumption difference has shrunk to 690,000 tons [16]. 3.1.6. US Soybean Inventory - Sales Ratio and Export - The US soybean inventory - sales ratio has tightened to 6.74%. As of December 18, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 870,199 tons, with 386,010 tons to the Chinese mainland, accounting for 44.36% [26]. 3.1.7. Brazilian Export Sales - As of the latest data, the sales progress of Brazilian MT is 38.42%, lower than 41.09% of the same period last year, but the overall sales progress is good due to the large increase in production [27]. 3.1.8. Sowing Progress in South America - As of December 12, the sowing in the central and northern regions of Brazil was completed, and the sowing progress in the southern Rio Grande do Sul was 92%. The sowing progress in Argentina was 75.5% [37]. 3.1.9. South American Weather - Argentina will have less precipitation in the next two weeks, which is not conducive to soybean growth, while the precipitation in the main Brazilian producing areas is normal, which is beneficial to soybean growth [43]. 3.1.10. US Soybean Planting Cost - The planting cost of US soybeans in 25/26 is 1148 cents/bushel, and the bottom price is expected to be around 1000 cents/bushel. The US soybean price has strong bottom support [45]. 3.1.11. Premium Quotes - The Brazilian premium quotes have stabilized recently. As of February, the Brazilian premium quote was 150H cents/bushel. The crushing profit of imported soybeans was a loss of about - 30 yuan/ton [52]. 3.1.12. Import Cost - Based on the US soybean planting cost of 1000 cents/bushel, the US soybean premium of 230 cents/bushel, the exchange rate of 7.1, and the oil - meal ratio of 2.7, the domestic soybean import cost is 3000 yuan/ton. The domestic soybean meal cost from February to March is 3200 yuan/ton, and the Brazilian cost is 2580 yuan/ton [54]. 3.1.13. Ship - Buying Progress - Driven by the import crushing profit, the domestic ship - buying progress is relatively fast. The procurement progress for the January shipment has reached 100%. After January, the domestic arrival may decrease, which may lead to a phased increase in prices [59]. 3.1.14. Soybean Arrival - The domestic soybean arrival will first decrease and then increase. The 2025 - 2026 first - quarter import volume will decline seasonally, which is conducive to inventory reduction, but the soybean auction by CGC will slow down the inventory reduction of soybean meal [61][207]. 3.1.15. Soybean Meal Inventory - The domestic soybean meal inventory reduction is slow. As of December 19, the soybean inventory was 7.22 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 24.86%), and the soybean meal inventory was 1.12 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 17.9%) [207]. 3.2. Oils and Fats 3.2.1. Period and Spot Ends - As of December 31, the palm oil 05 contract decreased by 42 yuan/ton to 8584 yuan/ton, the soybean oil 05 contract decreased by 178 yuan/ton to 7862 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil 05 contract decreased by 670 yuan/ton to 9087 yuan/ton. The decline of rapeseed oil was the most significant [77]. 3.2.2. Palm Oil - In the short term, the export of Malaysian palm oil in December decreased, and the production decreased slightly. The ending inventory may increase to over 3 million tons. In the long term, the traditional production - reduction season from January to February 2026 and the pre - Ramadan stocking in India are conducive to inventory reduction [77]. 3.2.3. Soybean Oil - In the short term, the fundamental support is weak. The US soybean export demand is uncertain, and the South American soybean is expected to have a good harvest. However, the current US soybean price is lower than the planting cost, and the US biodiesel policy may limit the downside. In the long term, it will fluctuate widely [77]. 3.2.4. Rapeseed Oil - In the short term, the domestic situation is strong in reality but weak in expectation. The supply is decreasing, and the inventory is accelerating reduction. In the long term, the global rapeseed supply is more abundant, and the domestic supply may become more relaxed [77]. 3.2.5. Key Data Tracking: Spreads - The report shows the historical spreads of different oil contracts, such as the 5 - month spreads between rapeseed oil and soybean oil, rapeseed oil and palm oil, and soybean oil and palm oil [84][85][86]. 3.2.6. Key Data Tracking: Warehouse Receipts - As of December 31, the registered warehouse receipts of palm oil were 260 lots, a decrease of 92 lots from the end of last month; the registered warehouse receipts of soybean oil were 28,264 lots, an increase of 28,264 lots; the registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil were 3297 lots, a decrease of 668 lots [91]. 3.2.7. Palm Oil Supply - Demand in Malaysia - In November 2025, the Malaysian palm oil production was 1.94 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.3%; the export was 1.21 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.13%; the inventory was 2.84 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.04%. It is expected to continue to accumulate inventory slightly in December [98]. 3.2.8. Palm Oil Supply - Demand in Indonesia - In October 2025, the Indonesian palm oil production increased, the export decreased, and the domestic consumption increased. The ending inventory decreased to 2.33 million tons. It is expected that the inventory will remain low in 2025 [104][105]. 3.2.9. Palm Oil Import in India - In November 2025, the Indian soybean oil import decreased by 10.6% to 370,700 tons, the sunflower oil import decreased by 44.49% to 143,000 tons, the palm oil import increased by 6.34% to 630,500 tons, and the total vegetable oil import decreased by 13.3% to 1.1509 million tons. The inventory decreased. There is a possibility of an increase in imports for pre - Ramadan stocking [119]. 3.2.10. Key Data Tracking of Palm Oil - The report provides high - frequency export and production data of Malaysian palm oil, as well as price data such as the domestic CPO spot price and the average price of fresh fruit bunches [121][122][123]. 3.2.11. Key Data Tracking of Palm Oil (Continued) - It shows the spreads between soybean oil and palm oil, palm oil and diesel, and the export tax trend of Indonesian palm oil [127][129][130]. 3.2.12. Soybean Oil Supply - Demand: US Soybean - The estimated US soybean output in 25/26 is 115.75 million tons (a year - on - year decrease of 2.77%). The demand has uncertainties, and the ending inventory and inventory - sales ratio are at the median level in the past five years [140]. 3.2.13. Soybean Oil Supply - Demand: South American Soybean - The market maintains the expectation of a good harvest in South America. The 2025 - January - to - November Brazilian soybean export was 106 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 10.44%), and the January - to - October Argentine soybean export was 9.3 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 126.5%). The total export demand will remain high [149]. 3.2.14. Key Data Tracking of Soybean Oil - The report provides data on the US soybean shipment, net sales, export to China, and the non - commercial net long positions of US soybean and soybean oil [151][153][154]. 3.2.15. Rapeseed Oil Supply - Demand - The estimated global rapeseed output in 25/26 is 92.273 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 7.30%), and the supply is more abundant. The domestic rapeseed import is affected by policies, and the supply may change depending on future policies [180][208]. 3.2.16. Cost: Oilseed Crushing Profit and Import Profit - As of December 31, the near - month Brazilian soybean crushing profit decreased by 52 yuan/ton to 65.5 yuan/ton, the US Gulf soybean crushing profit increased by 13 yuan/ton to - 422.56 yuan/ton, and the Canadian rapeseed crushing profit decreased by 32 yuan/ton to 744 yuan/ton. The import profit of Argentine soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil increased [192]. 3.2.17. Domestic Palm Oil - In 2025, the domestic palm oil import decreased due to poor import profit. After December, the supply may decrease, which is conducive to inventory reduction. As of December 19, the inventory was 700,000 tons [198]. 3.2.18. Domestic Soybean Oil - In 2025, the domestic soybean import increased, and the soybean oil consumption decreased slightly. The inventory remained high. The seasonal decrease in import from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the first quarter of 2026 is conducive to inventory reduction, but the soybean auction will slow down the process [207]. 3.2.19. Domestic Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed import is affected by policies. The supply may become more relaxed in the future, depending on policies such as the import of Australian rapeseed and Canadian rapeseed [208]. 3.2.20. Driving Summary - In the short term, the oils and fats will fluctuate at a low level. In the long term, there is a possibility of bottom - touching and rebound, but there are uncertainties [216][217]. 3.2.21. Valuation - The current price of the palm oil 05 contract is at a historical high, while the prices of the soybean oil and rapeseed oil 05 contracts are at a historical low [218].

Report Title - Supply shortage combined with weak US dollar expectations drive copper prices to new highs - January copper monthly report, released on January 5, 2026 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Weak US dollar expectations and concerns about supply shortages in the copper industry have pushed up copper prices, and demand from new energy, power, and AI computing still provides support. Copper prices are expected to remain strong at high levels in the short term, with limited downside potential for corrections. In the medium to long term, copper prices still have upward potential due to the increasing demand from global energy transformation, AI infrastructure, and power grid upgrades [5][92][93] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In December, copper prices reached new highs. Before the holiday, the main contract of Shanghai copper broke through the 100,000 yuan/ton mark, with a monthly increase of 12.6%. As of December 31, the closing price of Shanghai copper was 98,240 yuan/ton. Weak US dollar expectations and concerns about supply shortages in the industry pushed up copper prices, while demand from new energy, power, and AI computing still provided support. Traditional off - season led to a slowdown in downstream demand, and domestic copper inventory increased [5] 2. Macroeconomic Factor Analysis Overseas Macroeconomy - US inflation pressure has eased, with the CPI and core CPI in November lower than expected, reaching the lowest level since 2021. However, the accuracy of CPI data is in doubt due to the federal government shutdown. The employment market remains weak, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6% in November, the highest since September 2021. The comprehensive PMI in December hit a six - month low, and the dollar index weakened significantly [11][15] Domestic Macroeconomy - China's price level has rebounded, with the CPI in November rising by 0.7% year - on - year, the highest since March 2024. The PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year but increased by 0.1% month - on - month. Social financing growth has recovered, with the cumulative social financing scale from January to November reaching 33.39 trillion yuan, 3.99 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. The official manufacturing PMI in December returned to the expansion range, and the economic sentiment level improved [17][19] 3. Fundamental Analysis Mine Supply - In 2025, there were frequent disruptions in global copper mines, and the ICSG lowered the mine supply growth forecast from 2.3% to 1.4%. From January to October, the global copper concentrate production was 19.139 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.93%, and the growth rate continued to decline. As of December 26, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 670,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.72% [29] Smelting - Due to the continuous shortage of copper mines, processing fees have reached historical lows. The long - term processing fee benchmark for copper concentrates in 2026 between Chinese leading smelters and Antofagasta is $0/ton and 0 cents/pound, a significant drop from 2025. As of December 31, the spot rough smelting fee for copper concentrates was - $44.76/ton [31] Refined Copper - In December, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.178 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.8% and a year - on - year increase of 7.54%. The cumulative production from January to December increased by 1.372 million tons year - on - year, an increase of 11.38%. The capacity utilization rate in December was 83.30%, a month - on - month increase of 5.12 percentage points [35] Imports and Exports - In November, China's electrolytic copper imports decreased, with a total import volume of 269,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.84% and a year - on - year decrease of 25.20%. Exports increased significantly, with a total export volume of 143,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 116.83% and a year - on - year increase of 1128.13% [39] Scrap Copper - In November, China's scrap copper imports increased, with an import volume of 208,143.09 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.87% and a year - on - year increase of 19.99%. In December, the含税 price difference between refined copper and scrap copper continued to widen due to the sharp increase in copper prices [44] Processing - High copper prices have severely suppressed downstream orders, and the operating rates of refined copper rods and recycled copper rods are under pressure. In December, the high copper prices are expected to suppress the year - end production plans of some enterprises. The copper foil industry has high prosperity, but the high copper prices at the end of the year may suppress the operating rate [45][49] Terminal Demand - In the power sector, investment in power projects has slowed down, but the installed capacity of wind and photovoltaic power has increased steadily. The real estate market is still at the bottom, with new construction, completion, and sales areas all showing significant year - on - year declines. The new energy vehicle industry maintains high prosperity, and the growth rate of home appliance production has slowed down [53][57][60] Inventory - As of January 2, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 63.49% month - on - month. As of December 31, the domestic social copper inventory increased by 21.84% month - on - month. The COMEX copper inventory continued to increase, while the LME copper inventory decreased slightly [64][71] Premiums and Discounts - In December, the spot premium of Shanghai copper decreased significantly, while the LME copper spot/3 - month turned to a slight premium, and the New York - London copper price difference continued to decline [75] Domestic and Overseas Positions - As of December 31, the trading volume of Shanghai copper increased significantly. As of December 24, the net long positions of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions decreased significantly. As of December 23, the net long positions of COMEX copper asset management institutions continued to increase [77] 4. Technical Analysis - Technically, the price center of Shanghai copper has continuously risen and broken through new highs. After breaking through the 100,000 yuan/ton mark before the holiday and then falling back, the 100,000 yuan/ton mark will become an important psychological and technical dividing line, and it will become an important support level after the copper price breaks through [86] 5. Market Outlook - Fundamentally, the US inflation risk has slowed down, but the employment market is still weak. The Fed still has room for interest rate cuts, and the weak US dollar is expected to boost metal prices. The copper mine supply is continuously tight, and the copper price is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term. In the medium to long term, due to the increasing demand from global energy transformation, AI infrastructure, and power grid upgrades, the copper price still has upward potential. It is recommended to close long positions at high levels and wait and see or go long on dips [92][93]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report - The steel market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in January, with trading mainly within a range. The price movement is likely to be limited in both upward and downward directions in the short term [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01. Review: Thread Iron Ore Strong, Coking Coal and Coke Weak - **Spot Market**: In December, the prices of black commodities showed a divergent trend. Among finished products, rebar prices rose while hot-rolled coil prices fell, narrowing the spread between them. Among raw materials, scrap steel prices declined slightly, coking coal and coke prices weakened significantly (coking coal dropped 12.5%), and iron ore prices were strong, rising by $2.5 per ton [12]. - **Futures Market**: The prices of black futures first declined and then rebounded in a V-shaped pattern. Rebar was stronger than hot-rolled coil, and the spread between them decreased. Iron ore was significantly stronger than coking coal and coke in the main contracts. The overall commodity market also showed a divergent trend, with the non-ferrous metals sector being notably strong [15][19]. 02. Outlook: Entering the Inventory Accumulation Period, Focus on Inventory Increase - **Overseas Macroeconomy**: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, and there were obvious internal differences within the Fed. The inflation in the US has declined, and the unemployment rate has risen. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points, reaching the highest level in 30 years [26]. - **Domestic Economy**: Consumption and imports and exports performed well, but the decline in investment widened. In 2025, from January to November, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.0% year-on-year, and the total value of goods imports and exports increased by 3.6% year-on-year. However, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year-on-year [30]. - **Infrastructure Demand**: In November, the data for broad - based infrastructure investment was weak, with a year - on - year decline of 11.91%. The Central Economic Work Conference proposed measures to promote investment to stop falling and stabilize [35]. - **Real Estate Demand**: The real estate market has not stopped declining. From January to November 2025, national real estate development investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year, and other real estate indicators such as construction area and sales area also showed significant declines [37]. - **Manufacturing Demand**: In December 2025, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) returned to the expansion range, with the production index and new order index showing significant increases [45]. - **Import and Export Demand**: In 2025, from January to November, China's steel exports reached 107.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced that export license management for some steel products would be implemented starting from January 1, 2026 [49]. - **Supply**: From January to November 2025, China's crude steel production was 891.67 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 4.0%, and rebar production was 17.295 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 3.2% [55]. - **Supply - Demand Deduction**: In December, the demand for rebar weakened month - on - month, but the production decline was greater, and inventory was smoothly depleted. In January, steel mills are expected to resume production, while demand will seasonally weaken, and rebar will enter the inventory accumulation period [57]. 03. Strategy: Maintain a Volatile Pattern, Trade within a Range - In December, steel prices first rose, then fell, and then rebounded, basically the same as at the end of November. The raw material prices showed a pattern of iron ore > steel > coking coal and coke. In January, the market may be in a policy vacuum period. The price of rebar is expected to have limited upward and downward space, and it is difficult to break away from the volatile pattern in the short term, so trading within a range is recommended [61][62].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices have entered a high - volatility and high - uncertainty stage dominated by sentiment in the short term. Although there is medium - to - long - term support from the supply side, current prices may be overvalued, and there is a risk of price correction. However, due to geopolitical impacts, copper prices may maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation pattern, with the Shanghai copper main contract fluctuating between 95,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton [3]. - Aluminum prices are mainly driven by fundamental expectations and capital behavior. In the short term, they may still be strong, but the upward pressure is large, and the upward space should be viewed with caution. Alumina is recommended to be observed, and aluminum alloy may be relatively weaker than aluminum prices [3][4]. - Zinc prices are expected to maintain an oscillatory trend. Supply is slightly stronger, but demand at the end of the year is weak, and the fundamental support is limited [3]. - Lead prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation, and high - selling and low - buying operations within the range of 17,000 - 17,900 yuan/ton are recommended [3]. - Nickel prices have rebounded strongly, but the nickel industry remains in a state of over - supply, which suppresses the upward space of nickel prices. Both nickel and stainless steel are recommended to be observed [4]. - Tin prices are expected to continue a relatively strong oscillation. It is recommended to build positions at low prices and pay attention to the resumption of supply and the recovery of downstream demand [4]. - The price of industrial silicon has rebounded after breaking through the lower limit. Alumina's weak reality of over - supply will continue, and it is recommended to observe. The price of polysilicon has adjusted after breaking through the upper limit. The price of lithium carbonate is expected to continue to oscillate [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomic Data - **China**: In December 2025, China's five - year and one - year loan market prime rates (LPR) remained unchanged at 3.5% and 3%, respectively. From January to November, the profits of large - scale industrial enterprises increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the profits of high - tech manufacturing increased by 10.0% year - on - year [13][15][16]. - **US**: In the third quarter of 2025, the US real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was 4.3%, and the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index annualized quarterly growth rate was 2.9%. As of December 6, 2025, the average weekly new employment in the US private sector was 11,500 [13][19][20]. 3.2 Geopolitical Events - On January 3, 2026, the US launched an air strike on Venezuela, captured Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife, and stated that it would "manage" Venezuela until a "safe" transition. The situation in Venezuela may have an impact on the global market, especially on gold and crude oil prices [24][25][27]. 3.3 Metal Market Analysis 3.3.1 Copper - **Price Trend**: The Shanghai copper main contract reached a historical high of over 100,000 yuan/ton before the holiday, then fell back. It is expected to maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation pattern [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of copper concentrates is in a tight situation, and there is an expected increase in demand from AI infrastructure and power grid upgrades in the long term. However, at present, downstream demand is weak, and social inventories have increased significantly [3]. 3.3.2 Aluminum - **Price Trend**: The Shanghai aluminum main contract shows an overall upward trend in oscillation. In the short term, it may still be strong, but the upward space is limited [3][54]. - **Supply and Demand**: Alumina is in a state of over - supply, and the destocking of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods is difficult. New domestic production capacity is still being put into operation, while demand from photovoltaic installations and the automotive industry has decreased [3][4]. 3.3.3 Zinc - **Price Trend**: Zinc prices oscillated in the previous week and are expected to maintain an oscillatory trend. The price range is expected to be between 22,800 - 23,500 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The processing fee of zinc concentrates has been declining, squeezing the profits of smelters. Demand has weakened due to environmental protection warnings in the north, and downstream enterprises maintain just - in - time procurement [3]. 3.3.4 Lead - **Price Trend**: The Shanghai lead main contract showed an oscillatory rebound trend, and it is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation between 17,000 - 17,900 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: LME and COMEX lead inventories decreased, while SHFE lead inventories increased slightly. The overall lead price is stable, and the replacement consumption is supported by the "trade - in" policy [3]. 3.3.5 Nickel - **Price Trend**: Nickel prices rebounded strongly. The prices of nickel ore, nickel iron, and stainless steel all showed an upward trend [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The Indonesian nickel mining quota is expected to be reduced, and the rainy season may affect nickel ore shipments. The refined nickel market is in a state of over - supply, while the demand for nickel iron from stainless steel mills has increased [4]. 3.3.6 Tin - **Price Trend**: Tin prices showed an oscillatory decline, but the upward trend in the long term remains unchanged. It is expected to continue a relatively strong oscillation [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of tin concentrates is tight, and the downstream semiconductor industry is expected to recover. However, the demand from consumer electronics and photovoltaic industries is weak [4]. 3.3.7 Industrial Silicon, Alumina, Stainless Steel, and Lithium Carbonate - **Industrial Silicon**: The price has rebounded after breaking through the lower limit [4]. - **Alumina**: The weak reality of over - supply will continue, and it is recommended to observe [3][4]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price has rebounded strongly, but it is expected to maintain an oscillation after the macro - sentiment fades [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is expected to continue to oscillate. Supply and demand are both changing, and attention should be paid to the impact of mining permits in Yichun [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the glass industry is "Oscillating with a Bullish Bias" [2][91] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The glass futures strengthened last week, with the weekly line closing as a medium阳线. The cold - repair of multiple production lines at the end of the month, combined with Hubei's environmental protection rectification and gas - conversion plan, drove up the market due to positive supply - side expectations. Considering the supply - side pressure of soda ash and the expected contraction of float glass factory capacity, there is an opportunity to go long on glass and short on soda ash. After the New Year's Day, there are still expectations of some production lines shutting down, and the pre - Spring Festival restocking by spot - futures traders will boost production and sales. Technically, the bullish force is dominant, so the glass price is expected to maintain a short - term bullish trend [2][91] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review: Rebound in the Market and Narrowing of the Basis - **Futures Price**: The glass 05 contract closed at 1,087 yuan/ton last week, up 39 yuan from the previous week. As of December 31, the spot prices of 5mm float glass were 1,000 yuan/ton (-20) in North China, 1,060 yuan/ton (0) in Central China, and 1,170 yuan/ton (-10) in East China [13] - **Price Difference**: As of December 31, the soda ash - glass price difference was 122 yuan/ton (-14). The basis of the glass 05 contract was -67 yuan/ton (-59) last Friday, and the 05 - 09 spread was -138 yuan/ton (-31) [14][18] 2. Supply - Demand Pattern: Decline in Daily Melting and Deterioration of Profits - **Profit**: The spot price of glass decreased, leading to a deterioration in gross profit. The cost of the natural - gas production process was 1,572 yuan/ton (-1), with a gross profit of -402 yuan/ton (-9); the cost of the coal - gas production process was 1,164 yuan/ton (+2), with a gross profit of -164 yuan/ton (-22); the cost of the petroleum - coke production process was 1,090 yuan/ton (-1), with a gross profit of -30 yuan/ton (+1) [22] - **Supply**: The daily melting volume of glass last Friday was 151,055 tons/day (-3,050). Currently, there are 218 production lines in operation, and 4 lines were cold - repaired last week [24] - **Inventory**: As of December 31, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 56.866 million weight boxes (-1.757 million). The inventory in North China was 10.146 million weight boxes (-0.716 million), in Central China was 6.75 million weight boxes (-0.295 million), in East China was 11.47 million weight boxes (-0.253 million), in South China was 7.246 million weight boxes (-0.459 million), in Southwest China was 11.7 million weight boxes (-0.207 million), the warehouse inventory in Shahe was 1.15 million weight boxes (-0.61 million), and in Hubei was 4.53 million weight boxes (-0.52 million) [28][33] - **Production and Sales**: On December 31, the comprehensive production - sales ratio of float glass was 108% (+10%). On December 30, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 44.1% (-0.8%). In mid - December, the number of available days for glass deep - processing orders was 9.7 days (-0.4) [34] - **Automobile Demand**: In November, China's automobile production was 3.532 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 0.173 million and a year - on - year increase of 0.095 million; sales were 3.429 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 0.107 million and a year - on - year increase of 0.113 million. The retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles was 1.321 million, with a penetration rate of 59.3% [44] - **Real Estate Demand**: In November, China's real estate completion area was 45.9293 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 25%; the new construction area was 43.9531 million square meters (-28%); the construction area was 31.2717 million square meters (-42%); the commercial housing sales area was 67.1974 million square meters (-18%). From December 22 to 28, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 3.44 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 35% and a year - on - year decrease of 23%. The real estate development investment in November was 502.82 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 31% [49] - **Import and Export**: In November, China imported 310,900 weight boxes of float glass (a year - on - year increase of 27%) and exported 1.69 million weight boxes (a year - on - year increase of 47%) [51] - **Soda Ash - Cost Side**: The spot prices of heavy soda ash were 1,325 yuan/ton (0) in North China, 1,250 yuan/ton (0) in East China, 1,300 yuan/ton (0) in Central China, and 1,450 yuan/ton (0) in South China. The soda ash 05 contract closed at 1,209 yuan/ton (+25), and the basis of soda ash in Central China 05 was 91 yuan/ton (-25) last Friday. The ammonia - soda process cost of soda ash enterprises was 1,312 yuan/ton (-7), with a gross profit of -57 yuan/ton (+9); the co - production process cost was 1,738 yuan/ton (-29), with a gross profit of -21 yuan/ton (+21). As of December 31, the national factory - level inventory of soda ash was 1.4083 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 30,200 tons), including 676,100 tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 26,900 tons) and 732,200 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 3,300 tons). The apparent consumption of heavy soda ash last week was 454,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 45,200 tons; the apparent consumption of light soda ash was 318,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,100 tons. The production - sales ratio of soda ash was 108.54%, a week - on - week increase of 9.23% [58][60][79][88] 3. Investment Strategy: Short - Term Speculation, Oscillating with a Bullish Bias - **Main Logic**: The glass futures strengthened last week. The cold - repair of multiple production lines at the end of the month, combined with Hubei's environmental protection rectification and gas - conversion plan, drove up the market due to positive supply - side expectations. The supply decreased as 3 production lines shut down last week, with the daily melting volume decreasing by nearly 150,000 tons. The demand in the northern market decreased as terminal projects were coming to an end, and the end - of - year demand in the southern market was lower than last year, with poor restocking willingness among middle - and lower - stream enterprises. Most manufacturers focused on collecting payments and were bearish on the market next year. Given the supply - side pressure of soda ash and the expected contraction of float glass factory capacity, there is an opportunity to go long on glass and short on soda ash. After the New Year's Day, there are still expectations of some production lines shutting down, and the pre - Spring Festival restocking by spot - futures traders will boost production and sales. Technically, the bullish force is dominant [2][91] - **Operation Strategy**: Oscillating with a Bullish Bias [2][91]

Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Monthly Report for January 2026: Expectation Support, Near - Weak and Far - Strong [1] - Author: Zhang Ying from the Energy and Chemical Industry Service Center of the Industrial Service Headquarters [1] - Date: January 5, 2026 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - In 2026, the domestic urea market price is expected to show a trend of first rising slightly in January, then falling slightly in February, and strengthening in March. Supply will be abundant in the first quarter, while demand will first decline and then increase [38]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Urea Spot and Futures Price Review - In December, urea prices were weak first and then strong. Futures prices drove the strengthening of the main basis, and then the futures prices recovered upward, causing the main basis to weaken. Supply - side开工负荷 decreased slightly, and overall spot supply decreased month - on - month. Demand from compound fertilizers and off - season storage procurement, as well as agricultural retail replenishment, led to good sales for manufacturers, inventory reduction, and an upward shift in the price negotiation center [5]. 3.2 Urea Capacity and Production Analysis - Capacity: In 2025, nearly 600 million tons of new urea production capacity was put into operation, including a 160 - million - ton device of Xinjiang Zhongneng Lvyuan in November. In the first quarter of 2026, a 50 - million - ton device of Xinjiang Aofu is planned to be put into operation [7][10]. -开工率: At the end of December, the urea开工率 was 81.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.8 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.77 percentage points. The natural - gas - based urea开工率 was 56.27%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 13.72 percentage points [7][10]. - Production: At the end of December, the daily urea production was 190,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,600 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14,900 tons. The estimated total urea production from January to December 2025 was 72.4 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.7 billion tons, with an annual supply growth rate of 11.9% [12]. 3.3 Urea Cost and Profit Analysis - Cost: The anthracite market had general trading, and coal prices continued to be weak. As of December 29, the market price of washed small anthracite blocks (S0.4 - 0.5) in Jincheng, Shanxi was between 850 - 920 yuan/ton [15]. - Profit: The gross profit margin of coal - based urea was - 2.28%, and that of gas - based urea was - 11.46%. Due to the weak coal prices at the cost end and the upward adjustment of urea prices, the urea production profit recovered slightly [15]. 3.4 Urea Demand Analysis - Apparent consumption: From January to November 2025, the apparent consumption of urea was about 61.53 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.54 billion tons, with a year - on - year increase of 4.31%. In December 2025, the urea production - sales ratio decreased slightly, from 99.4% at the beginning of the month to 98.4% recently [18]. - Agricultural demand: In 2025, the national summer grain sown area was 399 million mu, a decrease of 520,000 mu compared with the previous year, a decrease of 0.1%. Different regions had different trends in sown area. The agricultural use of urea has seasonal peaks, such as the spring wheat green - turning fertilizer period, the top - dressing period for corn and rice, and the wheat base - fertilizer period [21][22]. 3.5 Compound Fertilizer and Industrial Demand Analysis - Compound fertilizer: In December, the estimated operating rate of domestic compound fertilizer production capacity was 42.22%, a month - on - month increase of 4.63 percentage points, with a narrowing increase rate. In January, the operating rate may fluctuate slightly, following the production - based - on - sales model. The prices of urea and ammonium chloride increased, sulfur prices decreased, phosphate fertilizer prices were regulated, potassium fertilizer prices increased slightly, and compound fertilizer transaction prices increased. The cost advantage of the N element was obvious, the cost of the P element increased significantly, and the cost of the K element was stable in the short term [24][27]. - Industrial demand: The consumption of building materials and home furnishing stores first increased and then decreased, and the domestic demand for the panel market improved limitedly, with some support from exports. The average operating rate of Chinese melamine enterprises first increased and then decreased. It is expected to rise to over 60% in January [32]. 3.6 Urea and Fertilizer Export Analysis - From January to November 2025, the total fertilizer exports in China were 42.86 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 46.4%. The urea export volume was 4.62 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.36 billion tons. The export volume of ammonium sulfate was 19.37 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.2%. The export volume of other binary fertilizers containing nitrogen and phosphorus was 4.05 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 190.2%. The export volume of ammonium chloride for fertilizers was 2.08 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 46.4%. The urea port collection was 298,000 tons, and no export quota had been announced yet, so the port collection quantity was limited [35]. 3.7 Urea Inventory Level Analysis - Enterprise inventory: The urea enterprise inventory was at 883,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 495,000 tons. The overall agricultural reserve work advanced, and some industrial rigid demands made appropriate stockpiles, improving the market liquidity. - Registered warehouse receipts: The current registered urea warehouse receipts were 12,381, totaling 24.762 tons, at a historical high [36]. 3.8 Urea Market Outlook - Supply: Only one urea production device is planned to be put into operation in the first quarter. With the expected resumption of gas - based devices in Sichuan, Chongqing, and Inner Mongolia, the daily production is expected to remain at a high level, and the supply will be abundant [38]. - Demand: Agricultural demand will increase as the spring plowing approaches. Industrial demand: The compound fertilizer market may fluctuate at a high level in the next three months, with different trends in different months. The industrial demand for melamine, urea - formaldehyde resin, and desulfurization and denitrification will fluctuate slightly. Export demand is waiting for the announcement of new quotas. Overall, the downstream demand for urea will first decrease and then increase [38]. - Market price trend: In January 2026, the domestic urea market price may rise slightly; in February, it is expected to decline slightly; in March, it will be stronger [38]. - Key points of concern: Urea capacity release, urea device production reduction and maintenance, compound fertilizer operation, export policies, coal prices, and the macro - environment [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current aluminum price trend is mainly driven by market expectations and capital rather than fundamentals. Although the short - term aluminum price may remain strong, there is significant upward pressure in January due to factors such as new domestic production capacity coming online, a significant decline in photovoltaic installation and automobile demand, and the approaching Spring Festival. For aluminum alloy, due to poor automobile demand expectations, it generally follows the aluminum price but may be relatively weaker [75]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Market Review - In December, the overall trend of the Shanghai aluminum market was to strengthen first, then fluctuate, and finally continue to strengthen. At the beginning of the month, the macro - sentiment improved, and the LME copper warehouse receipt cancellation on January 3 pushed up the copper price, driving up the aluminum price. On December 9, the non - ferrous metal sector corrected, and the aluminum price also dropped significantly. From the middle of the month, the aluminum price strengthened following the rise of other non - ferrous metals. At the end of the month, although other non - ferrous metals retreated, the aluminum price continued to rise and was stronger than the overseas market, possibly due to the market trading the catch - up logic. Meanwhile, downstream demand gradually weakened, and social inventory increased more than seasonally [7]. 3.2. Macro and Aluminum Fundamental Analysis - **Federal Reserve Interest Rate Resolutions**: In 2024, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times, with cuts of 50 basis points in September, 25 basis points in November, and 25 basis points in December. In 2025, the Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate unchanged for most of the time and cut interest rates three times at the end of the year, each time by 25 basis points. In 2026, the expected interest rate is unchanged in January, and the subsequent interest rate decisions are uncertain [12]. - **European Central Bank Interest Rate Resolutions**: The European Central Bank cut interest rates multiple times from 2024 to 2025 and maintained the interest rate unchanged at the end of 2025. The interest rate decisions in 2026 are uncertain [14]. 3.3. Overseas and Domestic Macro Indicators - **Overseas Macro Indicators**: Include data on the US federal funds rate, PCE price index, CPI, and bond yields, as well as the eurozone's HICP, core HICP, and interest rates, and shipping freight indices [17]. - **Domestic Macro Indicators**: Include GDP growth rate, social financing scale, PMI, exchange rate, CPI, PPI, and deposit reserve ratio, as well as import and export data. In November 2025, China's exports increased by 5.9% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.9% year - on - year. The Sino - US economic and trade consultations reached some consensus, which had a weakening impact on the market, and China's export resilience was strong [19][25]. 3.4. Aluminum Raw Materials and Production - **Domestic Bauxite**: The supply of domestic bauxite is still tight, but in December, the prices in Shanxi and Henan began to decline under pressure. Due to issues such as mining rectification and environmental protection supervision, it is difficult to fundamentally solve the problem of mine resumption in the short term. The long - term contract prices in Shanxi and Henan are expected to be lowered in January [28]. - **Imported Bauxite**: After the rainy season in Guinea ended, the import of bauxite increased rapidly, and the price of imported bauxite showed a downward trend. In November 2025, the import volume of bauxite was 15.109 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.87%. The resumption of production of AGB2A - GIC in Guinea will further intensify the oversupply situation, and the price of imported bauxite is expected to continue to decline [31]. - **Alumina**: At the end of December, the built - in production capacity of alumina was 114.62 million tons, and the operating capacity was 95.7 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from the previous month. The domestic spot weighted index of alumina decreased by 163 yuan/ton to 2668.5 yuan/ton. In December, there were both maintenance and resumption of production in alumina enterprises. In January, the oversupply situation of alumina will continue, and it is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to policy developments [34]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of the end of December, the built - in production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in China was 45.36 million tons, an increase of 120,000 tons from the previous month, and the operating capacity was 44.59 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons from the previous month. The operating capacity is expected to continue to increase in January [37]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Import**: In November 2025, China's primary aluminum import volume was 147,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.47%. The export volume was 53,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 182.6%. The net import volume decreased. In the past two months, the LME aluminum price was stronger than the Shanghai aluminum price, resulting in an expanded import loss and a closed import window. In January, the import of electrolytic aluminum will continue to be restricted [40]. - **Cost and Profit of Electrolytic Aluminum**: In December, the average cost of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 158 yuan/ton to 15,137 yuan/ton. The cost of alumina decreased, while the costs of electricity and pre - baked anodes increased [42]. 3.5. Aluminum Downstream Demand - **Automobile**: In November, automobile production and sales increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The production and sales of new energy vehicles also increased significantly. However, due to the reduction of policy support and the pre - release of consumption, automobile production and sales are expected to decline significantly in January [50]. - **Real Estate**: From January to November, the real estate market was weak, with a decline in development investment, construction area, new construction area, and sales area. However, the release of the article "Improving and Stabilizing the Real Estate Market Expectation" in January 2026 has improved policy expectations and is expected to boost the real estate market [53]. - **Infrastructure**: In 2025, the issuance scale of new special bonds in China reached 4.59 trillion yuan, a record high. The large - scale issuance of special bonds in November is expected to drive up the demand for aluminum in infrastructure [56]. - **Home Appliances**: In November 2025, the production of air conditioners decreased year - on - year, while the production of refrigerators and washing machines increased. The export of air conditioners decreased, while the export of refrigerators and washing machines increased. With the advance release of 6.25 billion yuan of funds for consumer goods trade - in and the 14.4% month - on - month increase in the production schedule of three major white - goods in January, the demand for aluminum in home appliances is expected to increase [59]. - **Photovoltaic**: In November 2025, the new photovoltaic installation capacity decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. Due to seasonal effects, the photovoltaic installation is expected to decline in January [62]. - **Aluminum Products Export**: In November, China's aluminum products export volume was 486,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.9%. The net export volume is expected to increase in January due to the strong LME aluminum price and seasonal effects [65]. 3.6. Inventory - In December, the de - stocking of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods was significantly hindered [66].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Polyolefins are expected to have limited upside and a weakening oscillation. In December, constrained by continuous supply and weak demand, polyolefin prices repeatedly sought the bottom. Although the downstream demand for PP increased and the BOPP operation rate rebounded, the decline in the PP main contract futures price was smaller than that of PE. Due to intensified geopolitical conflicts in Venezuela during the holiday, the crude oil price on the cost side may be affected. In Q1 2026, the production of polyolefins will slow down, and the expectation of supply reduction will drive the price of polyolefins to rebound. However, overall, the demand improvement is insufficient, and the upside space is still expected to be limited. It is expected that the PE main contract will oscillate weakly within a range, with attention to the support at 6400, and the PP main contract will oscillate weakly, with attention to the support at 6300. The LP spread is expected to widen [8]. - Plastics still face supply - demand contradictions and are expected to oscillate. The prices of various types of plastics, such as LDPE, HDPE, and LLDPE, have decreased to varying degrees. The LLDPE South China basis and the 1 - 5 month spread have also changed. The cost of plastics is affected by factors such as the prices of WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil, and the profit of oil - based and coal - based PE has different trends. The supply side shows a decrease in the production start - up rate and weekly output of polyethylene, while the demand side shows a decline in the start - up rates of downstream industries such as agricultural film and packaging film [8][11][22]. - PP is under great trend pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. The price of the PP main contract has decreased, and the prices of related products have also changed. The cost of PP is affected by the prices of WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil, and the profit of oil - based and coal - based PP has decreased. The supply side shows a decrease in the start - up rate of PP petrochemical enterprises and the weekly output of PP pellets, while the demand side shows different trends in the start - up rates of downstream industries such as plastic weaving, BOPP, injection molding, and pipes [52][58][75]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Plastics 3.1.1 Weekly Market Review - On December 31st, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6472 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.67%. The average price of LDPE was 8400 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.67%; the average price of HDPE was 6862.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 7.71%; and the average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 6518.33 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 9.30%. The LLDPE South China basis was 46.33 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 88.40%, and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 202 yuan/ton (- 134) [11]. 3.1.2 Key Data Tracking - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The 1 - 5 month spread on December 31, 2025, was - 202 yuan/ton, a decrease of 134 yuan/ton compared to November 28, 2025; the 5 - 9 month spread was - 37 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton; and the 9 - 1 month spread was 239 yuan/ton, an increase of 146 yuan/ton [16]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of different plastics in various regions have different trends and fluctuations. For example, in the Northeast region, the price of HDPE film remained unchanged, while in the North China region, the price of some types of plastics decreased [19]. - **Cost**: In December, WTI crude oil was reported at 57.41 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.07 US dollars/barrel compared to the previous month, and Brent crude oil was reported at 60.91 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.41 US dollars/barrel. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1070 yuan/ton (- 50) [22]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was - 668 yuan/ton, a decrease of 331 yuan/ton compared to the previous month, and the profit of coal - based PE was - 207 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous month [28]. - **Supply**: The production start - up rate of polyethylene in China this month was 82.64%, a decrease of 1.87 percentage points compared to the end of the previous month. The weekly output of polyethylene was 67.22 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.84%. The weekly maintenance loss was 11.09 tons, an increase of 2.41 tons compared to the previous week [33]. - **2026 Production Plan**: Multiple companies have production plans for 2026, with a total planned production capacity of 550 tons [36]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many enterprises' plastic production lines have been shut down, and the restart time of some production lines is undetermined [37]. - **Demand**: The overall start - up rate of domestic agricultural film this week was 38.95%, a decrease of 10.09% compared to the end of the previous month; the start - up rate of PE packaging film was 48.41%, a decrease of 2.29% compared to the end of the previous month; and the start - up rate of PE pipes was 30.17%, a decrease of 1.66% compared to the end of the previous month [39]. - **Downstream Production Ratio**: Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, accounting for 34.2%, and the difference from the annual average level is 1%. The difference between the current proportion of low - pressure drawing and the annual average data is obvious, currently accounting for 5%, and the difference from the annual average level is 1% [43]. - **Inventory**: This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 47.51 tons, an increase of 0.85 tons compared to the end of the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 0.76% [45]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 11,353 lots, a decrease of 193 lots compared to the end of the previous month [48]. 3.2 PP 3.2.1 Weekly Market Review - On December 31st, the closing price of the PP main contract was 6348 yuan/ton, a decrease of 61 yuan/ton compared to the end of the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 0.95% [52]. 3.2.2 Key Data Tracking - **Downstream Spot Price**: The prices of PP - related products such as PP pellets, PP powder, and PE have different trends. For example, the price of PP pellets (T30S) remained unchanged on January 4, 2026, while the price of PE (7042) increased by 50 yuan/ton [56]. - **Basis**: On December 31st, the spot price of PP reported by Shengyi.com was 6170 yuan/ton (- 3.04%). The PP basis was - 178 yuan/ton (- 132), and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 40 yuan/ton (- 19) [58]. - **Cost**: Similar to plastics, the cost is affected by the prices of WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil [67]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was - 632.49 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34.23 yuan/ton compared to the end of the previous month, and the profit of coal - based PP was - 582.64 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.84 yuan/ton compared to the end of the previous month [75]. - **Supply**: This week, the start - up rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises was 76.87%, a decrease of 1.27 percentage points compared to the end of the previous month. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 79.37 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.99%, and the weekly output of PP powder reached 6.79 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.88% [78]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many PP production lines of enterprises have been shut down, and the restart time of some production lines is undetermined [82]. - **Demand**: This week, the average start - up rate of downstream industries was 53.24% (- 0.33). The start - up rate of plastic weaving was 43.74% (- 0.36%), the start - up rate of BOPP was 63.24% (+ 0.64%), the start - up rate of injection molding was 58.35% (- 0.51%), and the start - up rate of pipes was 39.74% (- 2.44%) [84]. - **Import and Export Profits**: This week, the PP import profit was - 330.70 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 83.74 US dollars/ton compared to the previous month, and the export profit was - 3.74 US dollars/ton, an increase of 8.57 US dollars/ton compared to the previous month [88]. - **Inventory**: This week, the domestic PP inventory was 49.07 tons (- 7.99%); the inventory of the two major oil companies decreased by 8.04% month - on - month; the inventory of traders decreased by 5.34% month - on - month; and the port inventory decreased by 3.49% month - on - month. The finished product inventory of large - scale plastic - weaving enterprises was 1004.70 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.73%, and the BOPP raw material inventory was 10.42 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.58% [90][94]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of PP warehouse receipts was 15,445 lots, a decrease of 421 lots compared to the end of the previous month [98].