Report Overview - Report Title: Yangtze River Futures Urea & Methanol Weekly Report - Report Date: May 26, 2025 - Researcher: Cao Xuemei, Zhang Ying 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views Urea - Urea trading logic has returned to short - term supply - demand game after the digestion of export news, with prices falling from high levels. The price of the Urea 2509 contract on May 23 was 1827 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from last week. Spot prices also declined [7][12]. - Supply remains high, with a national urea开工负荷率 of 87.84% and a daily output of 20.36 tons. Coal prices are under pressure, and demand from the compound fertilizer and other industrial sectors is weak. Overall production and sales have weakened, and prices may continue to decline weakly, with an operation range of 1770 - 1870 yuan/ton [7]. Methanol - Methanol prices have continued to fall. The price of the Methanol 09 contract on May 23 was 2222 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan/ton from last week, and the spot price in Taicang also decreased [8][39]. - Supply is relatively abundant, with a capacity utilization rate of 87.04%. The arrival volume has recovered, and downstream demand is weak. However, due to the limited inventory pressure on enterprises, the decline in methanol prices is expected to slow down, with an operation range of 2200 - 2350 yuan/ton for the 09 contract [8]. 3. Summary by Directory Urea Market Changes - The price of the Urea 2509 contract on May 23 was 1827 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from last week. The daily average price in the Henan market was 1868 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton, and in the Shandong market was 1877 yuan/ton, down 88 yuan/ton [7][12]. Supply - The national urea开工负荷率 was 87.84%, with a gas - head enterprise开工负荷率 of 74.98%, basically flat from last week. The daily output was 20.36 tons. A maintenance device in Xinjiang is expected to resume next week, and the daily output is expected to increase slightly [16]. Cost and Profit - Anthracite prices are weakly stable, with the price of S0.4 - 0.5 anthracite washed small pieces in Jincheng, Shanxi at 930 - 980 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from last week. The gross profit margin of coal - based urea is 5.56%, and that of gas - based urea is - 4.56% [19]. Demand - The average pre - collection days of major urea producers are 4.2 days, and the weekly production - sales rate is 95.4%. Agricultural demand is moderately following up, the compound fertilizer industry's start - up has decreased, and the start - up of downstream products such as melamine has also declined slightly [21]. - As of May 22, there is still some unmet fertilizer demand for rice and corn. The capacity operation rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 37.57%, down 2.69 percentage points from last week, and the inventory is 76.26 tons, down 1.25 tons [26][29]. - The start - up rate of the melamine industry is 63.95%, down 6 percentage points, and the weekly output is 3.15 tons. The demand support from the board market has weakened [32]. Inventory - Urea enterprise inventory is 66.8 tons, up 0.5 tons from last week, and port inventory is 20.3 tons, up 3.5 tons. The number of registered warrants is 7548, equivalent to 15.096 tons of urea, an increase of 193 warrants (0.386 tons) from last week [36]. Methanol Market Changes - The price of the Methanol 09 contract on May 23 was 2222 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan/ton from last week. The spot price in Taicang was 2278 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton [8][39]. Supply - The capacity utilization rate of methanol plants is 87.04%, down 1.43 percentage points from last week. Some plants in Inner Mongolia and Sichuan have restarted, and the arrival volume is expected to be 9.7 tons, an increase of 2.5 tons from last week [45]. Cost and Profit - Coal supply may tighten slightly, but inventory at all levels is high, and the decline in thermal coal prices is expected to slow down. The weekly profit of coal - based methanol is 57 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan/ton from last week; that of natural - gas - based methanol is 37 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton; and that of coke - oven - gas - based methanol is 351 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton [48]. Demand - The start - up rate of the methanol - to - olefins industry is 83.82%, up 1.51 percentage points. The demand from the main downstream is relatively stable, but the traditional demand is in the off - season. Some acetic acid plants are under maintenance, and there are shutdown projects in BDO and dimethyl ether, so the demand support for methanol is limited [52]. Inventory - The inventory of sample methanol enterprises is 23.52 tons, down 3.84 tons from last week, and the port inventory is 49.04 tons, up 0.65 tons [57].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stock Index: Defensive Observation [1][5] - Treasury Bonds: Bullish in the Short Term [5] - Rebar: Temporarily Observe [1][7] - Iron Ore: Oscillate Weakly [1][7] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillate [1][9] - Copper: Cautious Trading within Range [1][12] - Aluminum: Observe [1][14] - Nickel: Observe or Short on Highs [1][15] - Tin: Range Trading [1][17] - Gold: Build Long Positions on Lows after Full Price Correction [1][19] - Silver: Range Trading [1][19] - PVC: Oscillate Weakly [1][22] - Soda Ash: Observe [1][31] - Caustic Soda: Oscillate Weakly [1][24] - Rubber: Oscillate Weakly [1][25] - Urea: Oscillate [1][28] - Methanol: Wide - Range Oscillation [1][29] - Plastic: Wide - Range Oscillation [1][30] - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Oscillate and Rebound [1][33] - Apple: Oscillate [1][33] - PTA: Range Oscillation [1][35] - Live Pigs: Oscillate Weakly [1][37] - Eggs: Short on Highs [1][39] - Corn: High - Level Oscillation [1][40] - Soybean Meal: Cautiously Chase Highs, Go Long on Pullbacks [1][42] - Oils and Fats: Short on Highs [1][47] Core Views - The global market is affected by factors such as tariff policies, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic data. Different commodities show various trends and investment opportunities due to their unique fundamentals and macro - environmental impacts. For example, tariff issues bring uncertainties to the market, while supply - demand imbalances determine the price trends of commodities [5][22][37]. Summary by Category Macro - Finance - **Stock Index**: Due to international tariff threats, domestic market rotation, and weak main - line driving forces, the stock index may oscillate weakly. It is recommended to adopt a defensive observation strategy [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: After the issuance of a large amount of interest - rate bonds, the biggest negative factor in the market has been digested. With the clear attitude of monetary policy support, the bond market is expected to oscillate upwards [5]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The supply - demand contradiction is gradually emerging as demand weakens seasonally and steel mills have no strong intention to cut production. With low - level valuation, the price is expected to oscillate weakly [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Although affected by some events, the overall supply is increasing, and demand may decline slightly. It is recommended to observe as the 09 contract is expected to oscillate [7]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal prices face downward pressure due to sufficient supply and weakening demand. Coke also has supply - demand contradictions, and both are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Despite some weakening in fundamentals, low inventory still supports prices. The Shanghai copper may maintain an oscillating pattern before the holiday, and it is recommended to trade cautiously within the range [12]. - **Aluminum**: With the increase in alumina price and complex supply - demand situations, and the possible impact of trade negotiations on exports, it is recommended to observe [14]. - **Nickel**: The cost is firm, but there is an oversupply in the medium - long term. It is recommended to observe or short on highs as it is expected to oscillate weakly [15]. - **Tin**: Supply recovery expectations and the impact of tariff policies on demand may increase price volatility. It is recommended to trade within the range [17]. - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by factors such as the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, inflation data, and tariff policies, prices are expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to build long positions on lows after price corrections [19]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With weak demand, over - capacity, and high inventory, the price is in a weak position. Although there is short - term tariff relief, the impact on demand still exists. The price is expected to oscillate, and macro - news should be continuously monitored [22]. - **Caustic Soda**: In June, it may show a situation of weak supply and demand. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term and be shorted in the medium term. Attention should be paid to factors such as inventory and downstream demand [24]. - **Rubber**: Although there is short - term support at the bottom, the supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [25]. - **Urea**: Supply is stable, and demand is expected to be released. The price is expected to oscillate, with attention paid to pressure and support levels [28]. - **Methanol**: Supply is relatively abundant, and downstream demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate within a wide range [29]. - **Plastic**: Supply pressure is relieved, but downstream demand is still weak. It is expected to oscillate widely in the short term, and attention should be paid to factors such as downstream demand and policies [30]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is still at a high level, but the expectation of maintenance is increasing. Downstream demand is not optimistic. It is recommended to observe in the short term and pay attention to short - term price drops and 9 - 1 positive spread opportunities [31]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Although global supply - demand is still loose, the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations may lead to an oscillating rebound in cotton prices [33]. - **Apple**: With the approach of the Dragon Boat Festival, low inventory supports prices, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level [33]. - **PTA**: Affected by the decline in crude oil prices and the weakening of downstream polyester demand, the price is under short - term pressure and is expected to oscillate within a range [34]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: Supply is increasing and postponed, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short on highs at the resistance level, with attention paid to factors such as enterprise slaughter rhythm and secondary fattening [37]. - **Eggs**: Short - term demand may increase, but supply is continuously accumulating. In the long term, supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to observe the 06 contract and short on highs for the 08 and 09 contracts [39]. - **Corn**: In the short term, there is support for prices due to reduced grassroots grain sources and positive market sentiment. In the long term, supply - demand tightens, but there are also factors such as policy release and substitute products. It is recommended to go long on lows within the range and pay attention to 7 - 9 positive spread opportunities [40]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the short term, it is expected to oscillate at a low level due to sufficient supply. In the long term, it may strengthen due to increased costs and weather disturbances. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing highs in the short term and go long on pullbacks after mid - June [42]. - **Oils and Fats**: In the short term, they are expected to oscillate within a range due to complex supply - demand factors. In the long term, they may decline in June and rebound in the third quarter. It is recommended to short on highs cautiously and pay attention to spread - widening strategies [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - disturbances are weakening, but the Sino - US game continues, and there is still a possibility of repetition in the tariff issue. The prices of non - ferrous metals continue to fluctuate. The fundamentals of different metals have different impacts on prices, and the prices of each metal are expected to show different trends in the short term [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Copper - **Trend Status**: High - level and strong - side oscillation, with a price range of 76000 - 79500 [3]. - **Market Viewpoint**: Mine - end disturbances continue, the cost pressure of smelters limits the downward space of prices, but the supply shortage pressure is difficult to change. Consumption in May weakened compared with April but was better than the same period. Social inventory has been slightly accumulating since May, and the spot premium has weakened, but the low - level inventory still supports the premium. The market demand is difficult to recover significantly at the end of the month, but there may be some inventory - building sentiment during the Dragon Boat Festival. The fundamentals still support the copper price, and the Shanghai copper may maintain an oscillating pattern before the festival [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Interval trading, and pay attention to the position of near - month contracts [3]. 3.2 Aluminum - **Trend Status**: Continued strong - side oscillation [3]. - **Market Viewpoint**: The revocation of some mining licenses in Guinea has escalated. The operating capacity of alumina has increased, and the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has also increased. The demand of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises has declined, and the off - season is approaching. However, the unexpected de - stocking of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods, and the 90 - day tariff window period promote export rush. The short - term aluminum price is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait - and - see [3]. 3.3 Zinc - **Trend Status**: Oscillation, with a price range of 22000 - 23000 [3]. - **Market Viewpoint**: The supply of the mine end is loose, and the domestic inventory has decreased. However, the traditional consumption peak season of downstream has passed, and the consumption is weak, with insufficient fundamental support. If the inventory turns, the decline of zinc price may expand [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Interval trading [3]. 3.4 Lead - **Trend Status**: Overall strong - side oscillation, with a price range of 16600 - 17100 [3]. - **Market Viewpoint**: The supply and demand are both weak. The import decline has accelerated the de - stocking of domestic lead, but it is in the consumption off - season, and both smelters and battery enterprises are waiting and watching [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Interval trading [3]. 3.5 Nickel - **Trend Status**: Weak - side oscillation, with a price range of 122000 - 127000 for nickel and 12800 - 13200 for stainless steel [3]. - **Market Viewpoint**: The nickel ore market in Indonesia is tight, and the cost is firm, but the long - term supply of nickel is excessive. The profit of nickel - iron is in deficit, the demand for stainless steel is average, and the demand for nickel sulfate is flat [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Interval trading [3]. 3.6 Tin - **Trend Status**: Side - way oscillation, with a price range of 250,000 - 275,000 [4]. - **Market Viewpoint**: The supply has recovered, and the consumption of the semiconductor industry is expected to recover. The inventory is at a medium level, and the mine - end resumption expectation is strong. The US tariff policy suppresses the terminal demand of electronic products, and the price fluctuation is expected to increase [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Interval trading, and pay attention to the supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [4]. 3.7 Industrial Silicon - **Trend Status**: The downward trend remains unchanged, and it continues to decline at a low level [4]. - **Market Viewpoint**: The weekly output and factory inventory have decreased, and the cost has decreased due to the decline in electricity prices and reducing agent prices. The start - up of industrial silicon furnaces has decreased, and the enterprises in the southwest region will gradually resume production during the wet season, but are restricted by the low silicon price [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait - and - see [4]. 3.8 Carbonate Lithium - **Trend Status**: The downward trend remains unchanged, and it continues to decline at a low level [4]. - **Market Viewpoint**: The supply exceeds demand, and the price is under pressure. The supply is stable, but the short - term demand growth rate is lower than the supply. The import supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to continue the weak - side oscillation [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - selling at high prices, and pay attention to the upstream enterprise production cuts and cathode material factory production schedules [4]. 3.9 Macro - economic Data - **China**: In April, the year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail slowed down, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased, the real estate development investment continued to decline, and the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR both decreased by 10 basis points [13][14][15][16]. - **US**: In May, the Markit manufacturing, service, and comprehensive PMI were all better than expected and in an expansion state. The Trump tax - cut bill passed in the House of Representatives, and Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on the EU from June 1 [17][19][20]. - **Eurozone**: In May, the PMI unexpectedly shrank, and the service industry performance reached the worst level in 16 months [18].

Report Overview - Report Name: Yangtze River Futures PTA Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: May 26, 2025 - Research Team: Cotton Spinning Team - Analysts: Hong Runxia, Huang Shanghai - Contacts: Zhong Zhou, Gu Zhenxiang 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term supply and demand of the PTA industry are acceptable, and prices will fluctuate within a range [25]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - PX: Last week, domestic PX production was 644,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.31%, and the weekly average capacity utilization rate was 76.83%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24%. Due to the continuous decline in downstream polyester start - up, PX destocking slowed down. With the weakening support from the cost - end crude oil, PX prices gradually declined [2]. - PTA: Last week, PTA prices fluctuated and declined. The cost - end international oil prices weakened due to the expected increase in production. On the supply side, PTA start - up increased slightly, while downstream polyester load decreased slightly. PTA destocking continued, and the short - term fundamentals still had some support [2]. - Ethylene Glycol: Last week, ethylene glycol prices fluctuated and declined. At the beginning, due to the decrease in domestic production and imported arrivals, domestic ethylene glycol prices continued to rise. However, due to downstream enterprises' resistance to high - priced goods and the expected decline in cost - end oil prices, the short - term price maintained a volatile operation [2]. - Short - fiber: Last week, short - fiber prices fluctuated following the raw material prices. At the beginning, affected by the decline in the raw material end, short - fiber prices declined. Then, due to producers and traders being bearish on the future market and willing to sell at low prices, the spot and futures prices were dragged down. However, due to the tight liquidity of some goods, the decline was limited [2]. 3.2 Spot Analysis - As of May 22, the PTA spot price was 4,922 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 yuan or 0.04%. As of the 23rd, the PTA spot price increased by 20 to 4,880 yuan/ton. There was a game between cost and demand, and the market was re - balancing future supply and demand. The absolute price fluctuated at the lower end, the spot basis was relatively strong, and the trading on the trading side was active, with overall quiet trading [4][6]. 3.3 PTA Upstream - Crude oil: As of May 21, the WTI price was $61.57 per barrel, a decrease of 0.08% from May 15; the Brent price was $64.91 per barrel, an increase of 0.59% from May 15. The main influencing factors were the ongoing differences in the US - Iran nuclear negotiations, the possible Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, the improved market expectations for demand prospects, as well as the easing of the Russia - Ukraine situation and the increase in US commercial crude oil inventories [7]. - PX: The domestic PX production last week was 644,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.31%. The domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization rate was 76.83%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24%. The spread between PX and naphtha and the spread between PX and MX increased. Due to the unplanned load reduction or shutdown of some enterprises, the spot tightness of PX continued, and the spot purchasing power increased. As of May 21, the average PX - N was $268.47 per ton, a week - on - week increase of $22.05 per ton, and the average PX - M was $110.37 per ton, a week - on - week increase of $8.95 per ton [9]. 3.4 PTA Supply - Last week, the domestic PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate reached 77.22%, a week - on - week increase of 1.49% and a year - on - year increase of 5.39%. Zhongtai Chemical restarted, and Jiayun's No. 2 line was shut down for maintenance near the weekend. Overall, the domestic capacity utilization rate increased slightly [15]. 3.5 Ethylene Glycol Supply - China's total ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate was 55.38%, a week - on - week decrease of 5.66%. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of integrated plants was 55.59%, a week - on - week decrease of 6.39%; the capacity utilization rate of coal - based ethylene glycol was 55%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.42%. China's weekly ethylene glycol production was 332,900 tons, a decrease of 9.28% from the previous week [17]. 3.6 Downstream Demand - Last week, China's polyester industry's weekly production was 1,584,900 tons, an increase of 160 tons or 0.1% from the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of the polyester industry was 90.63%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3%. The different trends of production and capacity utilization were mainly due to the maintenance of some polyester factories during the week, but the inclusion of Xin Fengming's new plant at the end of last week and the increased load of Xin Fengming and Hengyi's new plants this week [22]. 3.7 Terminal Weaving - Last week, the comprehensive start - up rate of major domestic weaving production bases was 57.65%, the same as the previous week. The start - up rates of different types of looms varied. Currently, the tail orders of domestic summer clothing fabrics are being gradually delivered, and subsequent orders are declining. With unclear new foreign trade orders, the off - season atmosphere in the market is becoming more obvious, and the inventory of grey fabrics has slightly increased. The local market still mainly consists of small - batch orders, and the sustainability of the overall order quantity remains to be observed [24]. 3.8 Market Outlook - PX: Affected by the expected increase in crude oil production, the cost support weakened. With the continued maintenance of domestic and overseas plants, it is expected that the weekly PX production will increase slightly, and PX prices will continue to fluctuate strongly [25]. - PTA: With the weak support from crude oil at the cost end, although some plants are planned to restart, overall production will increase. Downstream polyester load decreases slightly, and the destocking of supply and demand slows down. It is expected that PTA prices will fluctuate in the range of 4,650 - 4,900 yuan/ton [25]. - Ethylene Glycol: With the weak international crude oil prices and weak cost support, and considering the supply - demand pattern, it is expected that ethylene glycol prices will fluctuate in the range of 4,350 - 4,500 yuan/ton [25]. - Short - fiber: With the decline in PTA prices at the raw material end and the narrowing of processing fees, and the weak terminal demand, it is expected that short - fiber market prices will fluctuate and consolidate within a range [25]. 3.9 Strategy Suggestion - Enterprises should conduct hedging based on costs.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Views - **Pig**: Supply pressure is gradually being released, and futures prices are oscillating at a low level. In the short - term, there is a game between supply and demand, and pig prices are supported at a low level with intensified oscillations. In the medium - to - long - term, under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, pig prices still face a risk of decline [4][50]. - **Egg**: Hen culling has accelerated, and the support for the futures market has strengthened. In the short - term, the Dragon Boat Festival may boost egg prices, but high supply and weather conditions will put pressure on prices. In the medium - term, the supply is expected to increase. In the long - term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter may ease [5][74]. - **Corn**: The end of grass - roots grain sales has strengthened the support for the futures market. In the short - term, the spot price has support. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand relationship is tightening, which drives prices up, but the upside space is limited due to substitutes [6][99]. 3. Summary by Variety Pig 3.1.1. Period and Spot Ends - As of May 23, the national spot price was 14.35 yuan/kg, down 0.41 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 14.59 yuan/kg, down 0.32 yuan/kg from last week; the futures price of pig 2509 was 13,515 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan/ton from last week; the 09 - contract basis was 1,075 yuan/ton, down 175 yuan/ton from last week [4][50]. 3.1.2. Supply End - From May to November 2024, the inventory of breeding sows increased steadily, and performance improved. In the case of stable epidemics, the supply from May to September 2025 showed an increasing trend. Although the breeding profit declined and the production capacity was reduced, the overall reduction was limited. In May 2025, the planned slaughter volume of key provincial enterprises and large - scale enterprises increased month - on - month [4][50]. 3.1.3. Demand End - It is currently the off - season for consumption. With the hot weather, terminal consumption is mediocre, and the slaughtering enterprise's operating rate remains low. Although there is inventory demand before the Dragon Boat Festival, the increase in slaughter volume is limited due to the losses of slaughtering enterprises [4][50]. 3.1.4. Cost End - The weekly piglet price decreased slightly, the price of binary breeding sows was stable, and the breeding profits of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets decreased slightly [4][50]. 3.1.5. Weekly Summary - In the short - term, there is a game between supply and demand, and pig prices are supported at a low level with intensified oscillations. In the medium - to - long - term, under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, pig prices still face a risk of decline [4][50]. 3.1.6. Strategy Suggestion - Do not chase short positions. Wait for a rebound and then go short at high levels. For the 07 contract, the pressure level is 13,700 - 13,800, and the support level is lowered to 13,000 - 13,100; for the 09 contract, the pressure level is 14,000 - 14,200, and the support level is 13,300 - 13,400. Sell out - of - the - money call options on the 09 contract after a rebound [4][50]. Egg 3.2.1. Period and Spot Ends - As of May 23, the average price in the main egg - producing areas was 2.98 yuan/jin, down 0.28 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main egg - selling areas was 2.88 yuan/jin, down 0.5 yuan/jin from last Friday. The main egg futures contract 2507 closed at 2,966 yuan/500 kg, down 15 yuan/500 kg from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was - 346 yuan/500 kg, 205 yuan/500 kg weaker than last Friday [5][74]. 3.2.2. Supply End - The newly - opened laying hens in May corresponded to the chicks supplemented in January 2025, with a large number of new layers. Some breeding enterprises chose to cull hens, and the supply pressure was slightly relieved, but the market supply was still relatively sufficient. In the long - term, the high number of chicks supplemented from February to April 2025 will lead to more newly - opened laying hens from June to August 2025 [5][74]. 3.2.3. Demand End - As the Dragon Boat Festival approaches, low egg prices may stimulate terminal demand, but high temperatures and humidity in the south are not conducive to egg storage, and the demand for driving up egg prices is relatively limited [5][74]. 3.2.4. Weekly Summary - In the short - term, the Dragon Boat Festival may boost egg prices, but high supply and weather conditions will put pressure on prices. In the medium - term, the supply is expected to increase. In the long - term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter may ease [5][74]. 3.2.5. Strategy Suggestion - Be cautious about short - chasing the 07 contract after June. For the 08 and 09 contracts, take a bearish view and wait for a rebound to go short. Pay attention to the 3,750 - 3,800 pressure level for the 08 contract. Look for long opportunities for the 10 contract at low levels [5][74]. Corn 3.3.1. Period and Spot Ends - As of May 23, the closing price of corn at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2,310 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last Friday. The main corn futures contract 2507 closed at 2,327 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from last Friday. The main contract basis was - 17 yuan/ton, 2 yuan/ton weaker than last Friday [6][99]. 3.3.2. Supply End - As the price rises to a high level, traders' willingness to sell increases, and the market supply increases. However, grass - roots grain sales are basically over, and traders are firm in their asking prices. The current inventory in the north and south ports is in the process of depletion, which supports the spot price. In April, corn imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [6][99]. 3.3.3. Demand End - The increase in livestock and poultry inventory drives up feed demand, but the narrowing price difference between corn and wheat has led to an increase in the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing wheat, squeezing the feed demand for corn. Deep - processing enterprises are in a loss state, with a decline in the operating rate and limited incremental demand [6][99]. 3.3.4. Weekly Summary - In the short - term, the reduction of grass - roots grain sources provides support for prices. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand relationship is tightening, which drives prices up, but the upside space is limited due to substitutes [6][99]. 3.3.5. Strategy Suggestion - Take a moderately bullish view in the general direction. The 07 contract oscillates at a high level (2,300 - 2,360), and go long at the lower edge of the range. Pay attention to the 7 - 9 calendar spread arbitrage [6][99].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand situation shows that supply exceeds demand, and the price of lithium carbonate is under pressure. The supply is stable with an expected increase in South American imports, while short - term demand growth is slower than supply. The price is expected to continue a weak and volatile trend, and a high - selling strategy is recommended. Attention should be paid to upstream enterprise production cuts and cathode material production schedules [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly View Supply Side - In April, domestic lithium carbonate production decreased by 9% month - on - month. This week, production decreased by 795 tons to 15,048 tons. In March, production increased by 24% month - on - month to 78,730 tons. Pilbara Minerals lowered its lithium concentrate production guidance for the 2025 fiscal year. In March, China imported 534,500 tons of lithium ore, a 6% month - on - month decrease, and 18,100 tons of lithium carbonate, a 5% year - on - year decrease. The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate decreased week - on - week, causing cost inversion for some manufacturers [4] Demand Side - In May, the overall production schedule is expected to be flat month - on - month. In April, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 118.2GWh, a 0.03% month - on - month decrease and a 49.0% year - on - year increase. Exports were 22.3GWh, a 2.9% month - on - month decrease and a 64.2% year - on - year increase. Sales were 118.1GWh, a 2.3% month - on - month increase and a 73.5% year - on - year increase. Policies are expected to support the new energy vehicle market [5] Inventory - This week, lithium carbonate inventory decreased. Factory inventory decreased by 242 tons to 34,543 tons, market inventory increased by 560 tons, and Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 851 tons [5] Strategy Suggestion - Supply is stable with expected high South American imports. Demand is good but affected by the US tariff policy. The short - term demand growth is slower than supply, and the lithium carbonate price is expected to remain under pressure. A high - selling strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to upstream production cuts and cathode material production schedules [5] 3.2 Key Data Tracking - The report presents multiple data charts, including the average price of lithium concentrate, lithium carbonate, and related products; production and inventory data of lithium carbonate, power batteries, and cathode materials; and import data of lithium carbonate and lithium spodumene over different time periods (weekly, monthly, and yearly) [7][8][11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal market maintains a pattern of loose supply and demand, with limited upside potential for price rebounds. The soybean oil market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to the game of multiple long and short factors, and there is a strong expectation of inventory accumulation in the future. The palm oil market is also expected to oscillate in the short - term, and the inventory is expected to gradually accumulate. The rapeseed oil market will likely oscillate in the short - term, and the inventory is expected to gradually decrease if the supply tightens as expected [5][93] Summary by Directory 1. Soybean Meal a. Periodic and Spot - Futures End - As of May 23, the East China spot price was 2900 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week. The M2509 contract closed at 2952 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis was 09 - 50 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton week - on - week. The increase in soybean arrivals and the rise in oil mill operating rates led to a weakening of spot prices, but the market rebounded from the bottom, limiting the decline in spot prices. The basis continued to weaken [5][7] b. Supply End - The May UDSA report on US soybeans lowered the carry - over stocks for the 2025/26 season by 295 million bushels, providing strong support for US soybeans. Currently, the weather in the US soybean - growing areas is favorable, and as of May 16, 66% of the sowing has been completed, suppressing the upside of US soybean prices. Brazil's supply is increasing, and the price is weak, but there is strong support below. Globally, soybean production is abundant, and the price is weak under the pattern of loose supply and demand. In China, the pressure of soybean arrivals from May to July is still high, and the supply - demand situation is gradually becoming loose. In the long - term, Sino - US trade frictions may lead to an increase in import costs and a decrease in supply, and domestic soybeans will enter a de - stocking cycle after September [5] c. Demand End - In 2025, the pig inventory is expected to increase by 4%. With the high cost - performance of soybean meal and the advantage of the pig - grain price ratio, the demand for soybean meal in feed is expected to increase by more than 4% year - on - year. As of May 16, the national soybean inventory in oil mills rose to 5.8683 million tons, a 9.71% increase from the previous week and a 33.95% increase year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory continued to rise slightly to 121,700 tons, a 20.26% increase from the previous week and an 80.47% decrease year - on - year [5] d. Cost End - The planting cost of US soybeans in the 24/25 season is 1030 cents/bushel, and the cost of new - crop soybeans in Brazil is 915 cents/bushel. Calculated according to the exchange rate of 7.2, the premium of 140 cents, and the oil - meal ratio of 2.6, the cost of domestic soybean meal from May to July during the Brazilian soybean supply season is 2850 yuan/ton, and it rises to 2970 yuan/ton from August to September. The overall crushing profit is maintained between 0 yuan/ton and 50 yuan/ton, at a high level in the same period of history [5] e. Market Summary and Strategy - With the low carry - over stocks of new - crop US soybeans, the bottom support for US soybeans is strengthened. As the key growing period approaches, the probability of a rebound from the low level increases. From May to July in China, the arrivals increase, and the soybean and soybean meal inventories enter an accumulation cycle, with prices weakening due to loose supply - demand. In the medium - to - long - term, the cost increases and the strong expectation remains unchanged. It is recommended that in the short - term, the M2509 operate in the range of [2850, 3000], and enterprises can conduct basis point pricing on dips and sell on rallies. In the medium - to - long - term, go long at the lower edge of the range [5] 2. Oils a. Periodic and Spot - Futures End - As of the week of May 23, the palm oil main 09 contract rose 22 yuan/ton to 8006 yuan/ton, the soybean oil main 09 contract rose 20 yuan/ton to 7774 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil main 09 contract rose 114 yuan/ton to 9391 yuan/ton. In terms of spot, the 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou rose 50 yuan/ton to 8600 yuan/ton, the fourth - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang fell 70 yuan/ton to 8120 yuan/ton, and the fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Fangchenggang rose 100 yuan/ton to 9410 yuan/ton. The basis of palm oil in Guangzhou rose 28 yuan/ton to 594 yuan/ton, the basis of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang fell 90 yuan/ton to 346 yuan/ton, and the basis of rapeseed oil in Fangchenggang fell 14 yuan/ton to 19 yuan/ton [93][95] b. Palm Oil - The MPOB April report showed that the Malaysian palm oil inventory increased to 1.87 million tons, higher than market expectations, which was bearish. In May, the month - on - month growth rate of Malaysian palm oil exports gradually declined. However, the increase in production also slowed down significantly. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, attention should be paid to whether the inventory accumulation rate in May will slow down. Indonesia raised the export tax in June, while Malaysia lowered it. It is expected that Malaysian palm oil will oscillate in the short - term, with the 08 contract operating in the range of 3800 - 4000. In China, palm oil arrivals will increase significantly from May, and the inventory has stopped falling and rebounded to 359,700 tons, and is expected to continue to accumulate slowly [93] c. Soybean Oil - The EPA denied the news of a 1.36 - billion - gallon biofuel blending exemption for small refineries, and the biodiesel policy turned positive again. The excessive rainfall in the core soybean - growing areas of Argentina and the heavy rainfall forecast in the US Midwest may provide support for US soybean prices. However, Trump's proposal to impose a 50% tariff on EU goods on June 1st, the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy, and the pressure of the old - crop soybean harvest in South America limit the upside of US soybean prices. It is expected that the US soybean 07 contract will oscillate in the range of 1050 - 1080 in the short - term. In China, the monthly average soybean arrivals from May to July are expected to reach about 10 million tons, and the soybean oil inventory has stopped falling and rebounded to 656,300 tons, with a strong expectation of inventory accumulation in the future [93] d. Rapeseed Oil - The crushing and export demand for Canadian rapeseed in the 24/25 season remain strong, and the inventory of old - crop rapeseed continues to decline. The sowing of new - crop rapeseed in Canada is accelerating, and there are no obvious weather problems for now. The US House of Representatives passed the revised 45Z bill, which is beneficial to the demand for rapeseed - based biodiesel. It is expected that ICE rapeseed will oscillate in the short - term. In China, the rapeseed oil inventory is at a historically high level of 870,000 tons, with a large short - term supply pressure. However, the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed is still ongoing, and the arrivals of rapeseed in the second quarter are expected to be halved year - on - year. If the supply tightens as expected, the inventory is expected to gradually decrease [93] e. Weekly Summary and Strategy - Currently, the fundamentals of the oil market have no prominent long - short contradictions, and the short - term trend is oscillatory. In the medium - to - long - term, the arrivals of soybeans and palm oil will increase in June, dragging down the overall oil market. In the third quarter, due to the decrease in the sowing area of new - crop soybeans and rapeseed in North America and possible weather speculation, the oil market is expected to stop falling and rebound. It is recommended to pay attention to the operating ranges of 7500 - 8000, 7800 - 8200, and 9200 - 9500 for the 09 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil respectively, and be cautious about shorting on rallies. In terms of arbitrage, the strategy of widening the spread between the 09 contracts of soybean - palm oil and rapeseed - palm oil can be followed in the long - term [93]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic cotton supply is tight this year. By the end of August, the commercial inventory is expected to be 155 million tons, lower than 214 million tons in the same period last year and 163 million tons in 2023. The 09 contract is relatively strong. However, the new - cotton supply in 2001 contract is expected to be abundant, with an estimated output of 7.5 billion tons, which limits the price increase. In the short - to - medium term, the upside of cotton prices is restricted. Near June, international situation games and potential setbacks in Sino - US negotiations in July and August may cause price drops. The future cotton price increase is affected by the macro - situation. If the negotiation results are good and the Fed cuts interest rates, cotton prices may continue to rise after a decline, challenging 15000 - 15100. If the negotiation fails, prices will fall further. It is recommended to conduct hedging at the rebound high this year to prevent instability [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1. Weekly Viewpoints - The domestic cotton supply is tight this year due to factors such as limited quotas, reduced imported cotton, and high monthly consumption. The 09 contract is strong, while the 01 contract is restricted by the expected abundant new - cotton supply. Short - to - medium - term price increases are limited, and the future price trend depends on Sino - US negotiation results and the macro - situation [3]. 3.2. Market Review - This week, domestic cotton futures and spot prices fluctuated. The downstream industry's rigid demand has resilience, with no significant decline in the downstream operating rate and low finished - product inventory. However, the long - term downstream demand expectation is weak, and there is no strong driving force for cotton price increases. Attention should be paid to changes in downstream demand [5]. - The table shows the prices, weekly changes, and weekly change rates of cotton and related products, including cotton futures, cotton yarn futures, US cotton futures, etc. [6] 3.3. Macroeconomic Situation - In April, China's economy maintained stable growth. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.1% year - on - year, the service industry production index rose by 6%, and social consumer goods retail sales increased by 5.1%. From January to April, national fixed - asset investment increased by 4% year - on - year, and after excluding real - estate development investment, it increased by 8%. The urban survey unemployment rate in April was 5.1%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. From January to April, real - estate development investment decreased by 10.3% year - on - year, and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 2.8%. - China's latest LPR decreased. The 1 - year LPR dropped to 3%, and the over - 5 - year LPR dropped to 3.5%, both by 10 basis points. The six major state - owned banks and some joint - stock banks lowered RMB deposit interest rates, with a reduction of 5 to 25 basis points for current, time, and notice deposits. The large - certificate deposit interest rates of many state - owned banks also decreased, with some terms dropping by up to 35 basis points. Beijing and Shanghai lowered mortgage interest rates by 10 basis points following the LPR cut. - The preliminary value of the eurozone's manufacturing PMI in May improved slightly to 49.2, but the service industry PMI unexpectedly dropped significantly to 48.9, the worst performance in 16 months, dragging the composite PMI down from 50.4 in April to 49.5. The economic activity in France has contracted for 9 consecutive months, and the service industry activities in Germany and France have declined. The money market has increased bets on the European Central Bank to cut interest rates twice this year. - As of the week ending May 17, the number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased by 2000 to 227,000, a four - week low, indicating that the job market remains healthy despite trade - policy uncertainties [10]. 3.4. Industrial Chain - In April, China exported 124 tons of cotton, a 64.9% decrease from the previous month and a 97.7% decrease from the same period last year. From January to April 2025, the cumulative export was 2193 tons, a 72.0% decrease from the same period last year. In the 2024/25 season (from September 2024 to August 2025), the cumulative export was 12000 tons, a 22.3% increase from the same period last year. In April 2025, the export volume of cotton yarn was 29400 tons, a 6.17% decrease from the previous month but an 8.42% increase from the same period last year, ranking the highest among the same - period exports in the past five years. From January to April 2025, the cumulative export volume of cotton yarn in China was 114700 tons, a 27.25% increase from the same period last year, and the cumulative export value was 450 million US dollars, a 14.53% increase from the same period last year. - In April, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textile products were 108.8 billion yuan, a 2.2% increase from the same period last year but a 12.26% decrease from the previous month. From January to April, the cumulative retail sales were 493.9 billion yuan, a 3.1% increase from the same period last year. - As of the beginning of May, the new - cotton harvest in Brazil in 2025 had not started, and the total production forecast remained at a high level of 3.95 billion tons. In April 2025, Brazil exported 239,000 tons of cotton, basically the same as the previous month. Turkey, Pakistan, and Bangladesh were the main buyers. In this season (from August 2024 to July 2025), the cumulative export volume was 2.383 billion tons, remaining at a historical high level. As of the beginning of May, the processing and inspection of cotton in Brazil in 2024 (corresponding to the USDA 2024/25 season) had been completed. The sales progress was 94%, a 2 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. The sowing progress of new cotton in 2025 (corresponding to the USDA 2025/26 season) was 100%, and the pre - sale progress was 59%. - Affected by tariff panic in April, the textile and clothing exports in Pakistan decreased briefly. In April 2025, the export value of textile and clothing in Pakistan was 1.221 billion US dollars, a 1.35% decrease from the same period last year and a 14.64% decrease from the previous month. The export volume of cotton yarn was 14,000 tons, a 28.27% decrease from the same period last year and a 35.42% decrease from the previous month. The export volume of cotton cloth was 234 million tons, a 7.31% decrease from the same period last year and a 14.27% decrease from the previous month [12]. 3.5. Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - According to the USDA's May global cotton supply - demand forecast report, in the 2025/26 season, the global cotton production will decrease year - on - year but remain at the second - highest level in the past five years. Consumption will increase year - on - year, reaching the highest level in the past five years. The reduction in the ending inventory in the new season is limited, and it will still be at the second - highest level in the past five years. - In the 2024/25 season, the global cotton production is expected to increase slightly month - on - month, and the consumption expectation is slightly increased, with the increase in consumption greater than that in supply. The ending inventory this season will decrease slightly. The global cotton production is expected to be 26.36 billion tons, a 390,000 - ton increase from the previous month, an increase of 0.1%. The global consumption is expected to be 25.404 billion tons, a 143,000 - ton increase from the previous month, an increase of 0.6%. The global ending inventory is 17.071 billion tons, a 99,000 - ton decrease from the previous month, a decrease of 0.6% [13]. 3.6. Domestic Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In the 2024/25 season, in terms of total supply, the beginning inventory and production are the same as last month. As of March, China's cumulative imported cotton was 820,000 tons. Due to factors such as tight import quotas and a significant narrowing of the domestic - foreign cotton price difference, the import volume is reduced by 500,000 tons to 1.25 billion tons, and the total supply is reduced by 500,000 tons to 14.91 billion tons. In terms of total demand, in April, affected by Trump's tariff increase, the orders of textile enterprises decreased, but the operating rate remained high, and the cotton consumption was maintained at a high level. In May, production and sales slowed down, but the overall consumption situation was good. After China and the US reached a consensus, the export expectation of textile and clothing improved, and the cotton - spinning consumption expectation is increased by 600,000 tons to 7.81 billion tons. - In the 2025/26 season, in terms of total supply, the beginning inventory is reduced by 1.1 billion tons to 6.7 billion tons. In terms of production, affected by factors such as the prominent cotton - planting income advantage in Xinjiang, the cotton - sowing area increases slightly, and the total output increases by 600,000 tons to 6.79 billion tons. In terms of imports, after the Sino - US economic and trade negotiation reached a consensus, the import volume remains at 1.6 billion tons, and the total supply is reduced by 500,000 tons to 15.09 billion tons. In terms of total demand, after the Sino - US consensus, the long - term export expectation of textile and clothing to the US improves, and the domestic demand market will remain stable under loose monetary policies and consumption - promotion measures. The cotton - spinning consumption expectation is increased by 600,000 tons to 7.74 billion tons [17]. 3.7. US Cotton Exports - From May 9th to May 15th, the net signing volume of US upland cotton in the 2024/25 season was 32,069 tons (including 34,723 tons of signing and 2654 tons of cancellation of previous signing), a 16% increase from the previous week and a 41% increase from the average of the past four weeks. The shipment volume of upland cotton was 57,039 tons, a 24% decrease from the previous week and a 27% decrease from the average of the past four weeks. The net signing volume of Pima cotton this season was 2200 tons, a 91% increase from the previous week, and the shipment volume was 1724 tons, a 21% decrease from the previous week. The signing volume of new - season upland cotton was 1678 tons, and there was no signing of new - season Pima cotton. - In the same week, China's net signing volume of upland cotton this season was 3016 tons (3039 tons of new signing and 23 tons of cancellation of previous signing), and the shipment volume was 1519 tons, a significant increase from the previous week. There was no signing or shipment of Pima cotton [21]. 3.8. Industrial and Commercial Inventories - At the end of April, the national commercial cotton inventory was 4.1526 billion tons, a decrease of 687,000 tons from the previous month, a decrease of 14.20%, and 183,300 tons lower than the same period last year, a decrease of 4.29%. - At the end of April, the industrial cotton inventory of cotton - textile enterprises showed a slightly decreasing trend. As of the end of April, the in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 954,200 tons, a decrease of 5100 tons from the end of last month. The disposable cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 1.2884 billion tons, a decrease of 7300 tons from the end of last month. - The total industrial and commercial inventory was 5.1068 billion tons, a decrease of 135,400 tons from the same period last year and a decrease of 692,100 tons from the previous month [24]. 3.9. US Cotton Climate - In the Southwest Cotton Region, on Thursday, the weather in West Texas was sunny and hot, with the highest daytime temperature between 35 - 37°C. The soil - moisture evaporation rate accelerated, and this weather pattern will continue. Although there is no overall drought in the region, the bottom - layer soil moisture is still insufficient. However, it is expected that the probability of thunderstorms will increase in this region with the arrival of a cold air mass this weekend, and the expected precipitation is between 6 - 19mm. Therefore, cotton farmers in the High Plains region are seizing the time to complete sowing as much as possible before the rain. - In the South - Central Cotton Region, on Thursday, the weather in this region changed from cloudy to sunny, and the temperature was close to the seasonal level, with the highest daytime temperature around 27°C. Currently, the wet soil in the local area is gradually drying, and the sowing operation is resuming. The soil moisture content in the Delta region is close to saturation, and the local area urgently needs a period of sunny and warm weather to improve the growth conditions of cotton plants and allow cotton farmers to complete the sowing operation [27]. 3.10. Xinjiang Region - On the 23rd, there was light rain (snow in high - altitude areas) in some areas of the western part of Northern Xinjiang, Tacheng region, Tianshan Mountains, western mountainous areas of Southern Xinjiang, the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains, and northern mountainous areas of Hami. Among them, there was moderate to heavy rain in some local areas of the Ili River Valley, western mountainous areas of Bortala Mongol Autonomous Prefecture, and southern mountainous areas of Kashgar. There were about level - 5 easterly winds in the northern part of Tacheng region, western part of Altay region, Urumqi, Changji Prefecture, and northern part of Hami. Among them, the wind force in the Laofengkou and Mayitas wind areas of Tacheng region, the Naohai wind area of Altay region, and the Wulapo and Hongyanchi wind areas of Urumqi reached level 7 - 8, with gusts of level 9. There were about level - 5 easterly winds in the Southern Xinjiang Basin, with gusts of level 7, accompanied by varying degrees of sand - dust weather. - From the 23rd to the 25th, there is a high possibility of short - term heavy precipitation, thunderstorms, gales, hail and other severe convective weather in some local areas of the mountainous areas of the Ili River Valley, Bortala Mongol Autonomous Prefecture, southern mountainous areas of Tacheng region, mountainous areas of Changji Prefecture, and northern mountainous areas of Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture. Precautions should be taken against severe convective weather, mountain floods and geological disasters. - In the next three days, the strong winds in the wind gaps of Northern and Eastern Xinjiang and the sand - dust weather in Southern Xinjiang will have an adverse impact on tourism, agriculture and animal husbandry, and transportation. Precautions should be strengthened [29][31]. 3.11. Warehouse Receipts and Non - Commercial Positions - As of May 23rd in the 2024/25 season, the number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 11,359, with 327 valid forecasts, and the total warehouse receipts were 11,686, a decrease of 227 from the previous week. - As of May 13th, the net long position of non - commercial futures and options in the ICE cotton futures market was - 22,396 contracts, a decrease of 7850 from the previous week. The net long position of non - commercial futures only was - 17,543 contracts, a decrease of 7467. The net long position of the commodity - index fund was 60,702 contracts, an increase of 682 [34]. 3.12. Cotton and Cotton Yarn Basis - This week, cotton prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and cotton - yarn prices fluctuated. - The current cotton basis is 1198 yuan, an increase of 11 yuan from the previous week. - The current cotton - yarn basis is 870 yuan, a decrease of 30 yuan from the previous week [38]. 3.13. Domestic - Foreign Cotton and Cotton Yarn Price Differences - The domestic - foreign cotton price difference has narrowed.

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Equity Index**: The Trump tax - cut bill barely passed in the House of Representatives and still faces challenges in the Senate. Fed理事沃勒 said the tax - cut bill triggered the selling of US Treasuries, and if tariffs stabilize, there may be an interest rate cut in the second half of the year. US May Markit manufacturing and services PMIs exceeded expectations and expanded, with the price index rising again. The Eurozone's May PMI unexpectedly contracted, and the service sector had its worst performance in 16 months. After the US - Japan finance ministers' meeting, the US said "no exchange - rate discussion, the current exchange rate reflects fundamentals", and Japan said "no discussion on US Treasuries". In the domestic market, the rotation is fast, the main driving force of the market is weak, and the equity index may fluctuate [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Recently, the market has entered a data vacuum zone, lacking new positive or negative factors, and oscillation has become the consensus. From the futures trend, the long - and short - side forces are evenly matched. During the oscillation period, when it touches the upper or lower limit of the range, there will be short - term confrontations between the long and short sides. Without incremental information or fundamental data guidance in the short term, the oscillation pattern is expected to continue, and the market may continue to focus on spread mining [3]. 3. Strategy Recommendations - **Equity Index**: Adopt a defensive and wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Bullish in the short term [4]. 4. Market Review - **Equity Index**: The main contract futures of the CSI 300 index fell 0.05%, the main contract futures of the SSE 50 index rose 0.1%, the main contract futures of the CSI 500 index fell 0.7%, and the main contract futures of the CSI 1000 index fell 0.81% [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10 - year main contract rose 0.01%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.0%, the 30 - year main contract fell 0.04%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.0% [9]. 5. Technical Analysis - **Equity Index**: The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index shows a possible oscillating operation with adjustment risks [7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows an oscillating operation and may rebound [10]. 6. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (Yuan/Zhang) | Increase/Decrease (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | CSI 300 Main Continuous | 3879.60 | - 0.05 | 52835 | 143884 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | SSE 50 Main Continuous | 2715.40 | 0.10 | 28918 | 51342 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | CSI 500 Main Continuous | 5614.80 | - 0.70 | 53832 | 116140 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | CSI 1000 Main Continuous | 5950.00 | - 0.81 | 148619 | 195203 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | 10 - Year Treasury Bond Main Continuous | 108.81 | 0.01 | 65126 | 156071 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | 5 - Year Treasury Bond Main Continuous | 105.98 | - 0.00 | 47004 | 116615 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | 30 - Year Treasury Bond Main Continuous | 119.52 | - 0.04 | 67554 | 82843 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | 2 - Year Treasury Bond Main Continuous | 102.37 | - 0.00 | 34274 | 100554 | [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The copper market shows a mixed situation with positive macro - factors but weakening fundamentals, and the Shanghai copper may maintain a volatile pattern in the near term [1] - The aluminum price is expected to be weak in the second quarter due to factors such as the potential decline in downstream开工率 and economic data [2] - Nickel is expected to run with a weak and volatile trend in the medium - to - long - term due to the supply surplus, although the cost is firm [3] - The price of tin is expected to have increased volatility, and attention should be paid to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [5] Summary by Metal Types Copper - As of May 22, the Shanghai copper main 06 contract fell 0.22% to 77,920 yuan/ton. The macro - environment is positive, but the fundamentals are weakening. The spot copper price in the domestic market fell, and the market trading was light [1][6] - The SHFE copper futures warehouse receipts decreased by 9,464 tons to 31,754 tons, and the LME copper inventory decreased by 2,300 tons to 166,525 tons [15] Aluminum - As of May 22, the Shanghai aluminum main 07 contract rose 0.20% to 20,210 yuan/ton. The price of alumina increased, and the downstream开工率 may decline. The second - quarter aluminum price is expected to be weak [2] - The spot aluminum market trading was light, with a situation of "having price but no market". The SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1,099 tons to 58,422 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 386,900 tons [2][7][15] Nickel - As of May 22, the Shanghai nickel main 06 contract rose 0.03% to 123,400 yuan/ton. The cost is firm, but there is a medium - to - long - term supply surplus, and it is expected to run weakly and volatilely [3] - The spot nickel market saw merchants maintaining a wait - and - see attitude, and the downstream acceptance was low. The SHFE nickel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 452 tons to 22,562 tons, and the LME nickel inventory decreased by 876 tons to 200,910 tons [3][12][15] Tin - As of May 22, the Shanghai tin main 06 contract fell 0.87% to 264,780 yuan/ton. The price is expected to have increased volatility, and attention should be paid to supply and demand [5] - The spot tin market had active inquiry intentions, and the downstream made rigid - demand replenishment at low prices. The SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts decreased by 14 tons to 8,056 tons, and the LME tin inventory decreased by 5 tons to 2,665 tons [5][13][15] Other Metals (Zinc, Lead, Alumina) - Zinc: The domestic spot zinc price fell, and the consumption was poor. The SHFE zinc futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 1,400 tons, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,650 tons to 156,225 tons [9][15] - Lead: The domestic spot lead price fell, and the downstream consumption was low. The SHFE lead futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1,769 tons to 39,327 tons, and the LME lead inventory increased by 13,700 tons to 295,825 tons [10][11][15] - Alumina: The price in different regions increased, and the market trading was warm [8]