Investment Rating - The investment rating for the poultry farming sector is "Strongly Recommended" for key companies such as Shengnong Development, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Lihua Co., Ltd. [2] Core Insights - The poultry sector is expected to see revenue growth in 2024, driven by improved breeding costs, leading to a recovery in profitability. The second half of 2025 is anticipated to witness a rebound in white chicken breeding prices, with significant profit elasticity expected after the peak season for yellow chicken prices. [1][8] Summary by Sections Review: Cost Improvement Drives Profit Recovery - In 2024, the poultry sector's total revenue decreased by 1% year-on-year, but the net profit excluding non-recurring items turned positive. In Q4 2024, total revenue increased by 6.7% year-on-year, while Q1 2025 saw a 6% increase in revenue year-on-year, despite a 15% quarter-on-quarter decline. [5][8] - The average price of white feather chicken chicks in 2024 was 3.25 CNY per chick, up 4.4% year-on-year, while the average price of chicken products fell by 12.2%. The average price of live chickens dropped by 13.6%. [12][13] - For yellow feather chicken, the average price of snow mountain chickens decreased by 11% year-on-year, and fast-growing chickens saw an 8% decline. Despite falling prices, the reduction in breeding costs led to significant profit improvements for leading companies. [12][13] Outlook: Breeding Sector Expected to Rebound - The breeding sector for white feather chickens is expected to see a tightening supply in the second half of 2025, which will impact the supply of commodity meat chickens in 2026. [26][35] - The current stock of parent breeding chickens has dropped to historically low levels, setting the stage for future price increases. The cost of yellow feather chicken breeding has decreased, and a price rebound is expected to significantly enhance profit margins. [27][37] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the breeding sector for white feather chickens, with Shengnong Development highlighted as a key player benefiting from cost improvements. For yellow feather chickens, Lihua Co., Ltd. and Dekang Agriculture are recommended due to their potential for profit recovery as prices rebound. [35][37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the primary and secondary market conditions of local government bonds in the week of May 11, 2025, covering aspects such as net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, and trading volume. It also provides an outlook on the issuance plan for the second quarter of 2025 and the trends in the use of funds for special-purpose bonds [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, local government bond issuance reached 105.5 billion yuan, with a repayment amount of 38.3 billion yuan and net financing of 67.2 billion yuan. The issuance of new general bonds was 0 yuan, new special-purpose bonds was 100.2 billion yuan, refinancing general bonds was 4.9 billion yuan, and refinancing special-purpose bonds was 0.4 billion yuan [1][9]. - **Issuance Terms**: The 20 - year local government bonds had the highest issuance proportion this week (36%), and the proportion of bonds with a term of 10 years and above was 77%, an increase from last week. The issuance proportions of 7 - year, 10 - year, 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year local government bonds were 8%, 14%, 17%, 36%, and 11% respectively, with the issuance proportion of 15 - year bonds increasing by about 9 percentage points [1][11]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Government Bonds**: This week, the issuance of special refinancing bonds was 0 yuan. In 2025, 33 regions have disclosed plans to issue special bonds for replacing implicit debts, with a total amount of 1,598.9 billion yuan. Jiangsu, Sichuan, Hubei, and Shandong are expected to issue 251.1 billion yuan, 86.9 billion yuan, 80.8 billion yuan, and 77.6 billion yuan respectively [2][15]. - **Issuance Spreads**: The weighted average issuance spread of local government bonds this week was 14.8bp, widening compared to last week. The 15 - year local government bonds had the highest weighted average issuance spread at 23bp. Except for the 5 - year and 7 - year local government bonds, whose weighted average issuance spreads narrowed, the spreads of other terms widened. There was significant regional differentiation, with Inner Mongolia, Guangdong, etc. having relatively high weighted average issuance spreads exceeding 17bp, while Liaoning had a lower spread [1][25]. - **Use of Raised Funds**: As of the end of this week, the main investment directions of newly - issued special - purpose bonds in 2025 were cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (33%), transportation infrastructure (21%), affordable housing projects (12%), and social undertakings (12%). The proportion of land reserve investment increased by 6.7% compared to 2024 [2][28]. - **Issuance Plan**: As of the end of this week, 34 regions have disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the second quarter of 2025. Considering the actual issuance in April, the total expected issuance in the second quarter is 2.1 trillion yuan. The planned issuance amounts for May and June are 677 billion yuan and 745.2 billion yuan respectively. The planned issuance amounts of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the second quarter are 1,100.4 billion yuan and 1,015 billion yuan respectively. Next week, the planned issuance of local government bonds is 197.3 billion yuan, with a repayment amount of 26.1 billion yuan and net financing of 171.1 billion yuan, an increase of 135.3 billion yuan compared to this week [3][30]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spreads**: This week, the 15 - year and 10 - year local government bonds had favorable secondary spreads, and the secondary spread of 10 - year bonds narrowed significantly. The secondary spreads of 15 - year and 10 - year bonds were 23.2bp and 19.8bp respectively. From the perspective of the historical quantile in the past three years, the historical quantile of the secondary spread of 30 - year bonds was relatively high at 94%. Regionally, the secondary spreads of 10 - 15 - year local government bonds in medium - level regions were relatively high [4][34]. - **Trading Volume**: This week, both the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds increased. The trading volume of local government bonds reached 291.7 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.58%. Jiangsu, Hunan, and Shandong had large trading volumes, with 35.3 billion yuan, 27.5 billion yuan, and 23.5 billion yuan respectively. The turnover rates in Hunan, Gansu, Jiangsu, etc. were all higher than 1.1% [5][39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the banking industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a recent interest rate cut, leading to a decline in short-term interest rates, which is expected to support liquidity in the banking sector [10][11] - The total market capitalization of the banking sector is approximately 9818.7 billion, representing 11.5% of the overall market [1] - The report indicates that the performance of the banking sector has shown positive trends, with absolute performance over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months at 6.9%, 9.8%, and 28.4% respectively [3] Summary by Sections Industry Scale - The banking sector comprises 41 listed companies, with a total market value of 9818.7 billion and a circulating market value of 9727.2 billion [1] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has conducted 8,361 billion in 7-day reverse repos, reducing the operation rate from 1.50% to 1.40% [11] - A further reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points is expected to release 1 trillion in liquidity [11] Interest Rates - The report notes that the 1M, 3M, and 6M bill rates are at 1.19%, 1.09%, and 1.08% respectively, showing declines of 21bp, 2bp, and 11bp compared to the previous period [10][17] - The average financing cost for interbank certificates of deposit (NCD) is reported at 1.77% [14] Government Bonds - The yields for 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y government bonds are reported at 1.42%, 1.46%, 1.50%, 1.64%, and 1.84% respectively, with slight fluctuations noted [13][37] Financing Activities - The total issuance of interbank certificates of deposit reached 8,577 billion, with a net financing of 3,357 billion, indicating a significant increase from the previous period [14] - The banking sector has seen a cumulative net outflow of 6,366 billion since May 2025 [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report focuses on the dynamic trends of the fund market, including market - wide reforms, product - related hotspots, overseas market developments, and fund issuance status. It indicates that the fund industry is undergoing significant changes, such as the launch of long - term assessment reforms for public funds and the in - depth advancement of fee reforms. Meanwhile, the ETF market has seen substantial capital inflows, and the private placement market is also showing signs of recovery and standardization [1][7][15]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Fund Market Dynamics - The long - term assessment reform of public funds has begun, aiming to strengthen the alignment of interests between fund companies and investors. The China Securities Regulatory Commission issued the "Action Plan for Promoting the High - Quality Development of Public Funds" on May 7, proposing 25 reform measures in six aspects [7]. - The net self - purchase amount of public funds this year has exceeded 8 billion yuan. As of May 6, 103 public institutions have made 533 self - purchases, with a net purchase amount of 8.32 billion yuan, and money - market funds are the main target [7]. - 51 funds are scheduled to be issued this month, with passive investment and bond fund allocation as the two main lines. Equity products account for over 70%, and among bond funds, medium - and long - term pure - bond products are popular [8]. - The number of private - placement product filings in April reached a two - year high. As of April 30, 638 private - placement securities managers filed 1,170 products, a 12.18% increase from March, and stock strategies are the main type [10]. - The private - placement industry is moving towards standardized development. The Shanghai Securities Regulatory Bureau issued a notice to regulate the operations of private - placement fund managers in the region, and the Asset Management Association of China has issued nearly 200 disciplinary action notices this year [11]. - There were no new approvals for fund company establishment, QDII business qualifications, or fund company subsidiary establishment this week [12][13][14]. 2. Fund Product Hotspots - The fee reform of public funds is advancing towards "mechanism reconstruction", and fee - innovative products may be submitted soon. These products will charge management fees based on the holding time and annualized return of each investor's fund shares [15]. - The net inflow of ETFs this year is about 250 billion yuan. As of May 7, the net inflow of the ETF market exceeded 249.297 billion yuan, with stock ETFs accounting for over half [16]. - The first large - scale redemption occurred in the China Securities A500 Index Fund. The A - share of the F安达 China Securities A500 Index Enhanced Fund established on April 1 had a slight loss of 0.02% as of May 6 [17]. - The new issuance scale of equity funds this year accounts for over 50%. As of May 8, the new issuance scale of public funds exceeded 340 billion yuan, and equity funds accounted for over half [19]. - Newly - established funds are highly positioned in the technology field. Many newly - established funds have quickly entered the market, and most of them are technology - themed products [20]. - The binding effect of performance benchmarks has been strengthened, and public funds are frequently changing their benchmarks. As of May 8, 109 funds have changed their performance benchmarks this year [22]. - The heavy - position stocks of the first insurance - capital private - placement securities fund were revealed. As of the end of the first quarter, Honghuazhiyuan Private - Placement Securities Investment Fund held positions in Yili, Shaanxi Coal, and China Telecom [23]. 3. Overseas Market Tracking - SAB Invest launched Saudi Arabia's first quantitative ETF. The fund started trading on Monday, aiming to raise $100 million this year and generate an annual return about 2% higher than the Saudi market [25]. - Blackstone, Vanguard, and Wellington launched a private - market fund. The fund will allocate 60% to public stocks, 30% to fixed - income products, and 40% to private - market investments [26]. - Blackstone provided a 200 - million - euro guarantee for a UK railway arch project. The investment was used to purchase a 50% stake in 5,000 UK railway arches from TT Group [27]. 4. Fund Issuance Overview - Newly - established funds: 15 funds were announced to be established this week, with a total raised scale of 6.35 billion shares. The number and scale of newly - established funds are at the 77.88% and 86.54% quantile levels in the past two years, respectively, indicating low market issuance enthusiasm [30][31]. - Funds that ended fundraising: 8 funds ended fundraising this week, including index funds, hybrid funds, and FOF funds [34]. - Newly - issued funds: 27 funds were newly issued this week, including 18 index funds, 6 bond funds, and 3 hybrid funds. As of Friday, 66 funds are in the issuance period, and 41 funds have announced their issuance and will start fundraising soon [36]. - Newly - declared funds: 40 products were submitted to the CSRC this week, including 22 index funds, 9 hybrid funds, 6 bond funds, 2 FOF funds, and 1 REITs fund. Huatai - PineBridge Fund submitted the most products, with 5 [39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company focuses on the pan-energy, automotive electronics, and consumer electronics markets, with a rich product layout in sensors, signal chains, power management, and MCUs. The acquisition of Maiguan enhances its magnetic sensor business, promising broad product applications in growth areas like automotive and humanoid robots [1]. - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth in 2024, with a projected revenue of 1.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.53%. The gross margin is expected to be 32.7%, with a net loss of 403 million yuan [1][5]. - The automotive electronics sector is anticipated to grow significantly, with the company deepening cooperation with major clients and increasing its market share in automotive chip sectors [1][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 717 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 97.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20.7%. The gross margin for this quarter was 34.37%, showing a recovery compared to previous periods [1][5]. - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 1.96 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 49.53%. The net loss for the same year is expected to be 403 million yuan [5][1]. Product and Market Development - The company has over 3,300 product models, with the acquisition of Maiguan adding more than 1,000 models to its portfolio. The revenue distribution for 2024 is expected to be 49.14% from signal chains, 35.87% from sensors, and 13.98% from power management [1][5]. - The automotive electronics segment is projected to account for 36.88% of revenue in 2024, with a total shipment of 362 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.93 percentage points [1][5]. Strategic Initiatives - The acquisition of Maiguan is expected to enhance the company’s capabilities in magnetic sensors, providing a broader product range and improving market competitiveness [1][5]. - The company plans to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to raise additional funds and expand its global market presence [9][1]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts revenues of 2.86 billion yuan in 2025, 3.54 billion yuan in 2026, and 4.23 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of -147 million yuan, 13 million yuan, and 206 million yuan respectively [5][1]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2026 and 2027 are projected to be 0.09 yuan and 1.45 yuan respectively [1][5].

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 05 月 11 日 谈判的底气 ——宏观与大类资产周报 频率：每月 国内方面，1）关税冲击显现化：关税冲击令中游开工率均超季节性回落，美 国汽车零部件关税政策实行后半钢胎开工率骤降；2）内需偏弱：五一期间传 统家电、电影消费表现不佳，地产成交偏弱，或反映前期政策效果继续边际减 弱，而 507 央行新一轮政策的提振效果尚有待观察；3）Q2 经济增速大概率 放缓，预计 5-6 月资金面仍宽松、类债资产仍有一定表现；4）中美会谈开 启，若美国以调降关税（即以当前 145%额外关税为基础）作为谈判条件，则 双方显然处在不平等的谈判基础之上，短期内将难有实质性进展。但印巴、俄 乌局势缓和均是中国影响力上升的结果，中国在经济、科技、国际政治方面均 更具备谈判的底气。因此，国内风险偏好理应不弱，人民币汇率将继续保持在 7.10-7.30 区间。 海外方面，1）5 月美联储继续暂停降息、维持鹰派，Q2 不降息已在市场预期 内。2）贝森特表示 7 月 4 日左右将拿出"减税法案 2.0"，中美关税会谈开 启以及积极的财政态度或令美股、美元继续受到一定提振。 点评报告 相关报告 1、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for investment in the metals industry, particularly highlighting opportunities in copper and gold [3]. Core Insights - Tungsten prices continue to rise, and rare earth elements are beginning to see price increases as well. The report emphasizes the importance of these materials in the context of trade agreements and market dynamics [2][10]. - The report notes that the U.S. and U.K. have reached an agreement on tariff trade terms, with the U.S. retaining a 10% baseline tariff while reducing steel and aluminum tariffs to zero. This development is expected to influence market sentiment [2]. - The report suggests a focus on materials related to technology and robotics, as well as self-sufficient products, indicating a shift towards strategic materials in the industry [2]. Industry Overview - The metals industry comprises 235 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 399.76 billion and a circulating market value of 371.64 billion [3]. - The performance of the metals sector has shown a 1.67% increase this week, with small metals leading at 4.59% and energy metals at 2.86% [7]. - The report highlights significant stock movements, with Haomei New Materials seeing a 19.26% increase, while Zhongfu Industrial experienced a 4.58% decline [7]. Price Movements - The report indicates that magnesium prices have increased by 5.34% due to supply constraints and low inventory levels, while indium prices have decreased by 3.81% due to export tariffs and reduced demand [7]. - Copper inventory has decreased by 0.95 million tons to 1.201 million tons, which is significantly lower than the previous year's inventory of 4.047 million tons [7]. - Aluminum prices are expected to face short-term pressure due to increased supply and weak demand, although long-term prospects remain positive [8]. Material-Specific Insights - The report notes that black tungsten prices have risen by 2% to 152,500 CNY per ton, driven by supply constraints and market expectations [10]. - Rare earth prices have also seen increases, with prices for terbium, dysprosium, and praseodymium-neodymium oxides rising by 4.81%, 2.49%, and 3.55% respectively [10]. - Gold and silver prices have shown a slight increase, with gold reaching 3,324 USD per ounce, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions and market dynamics [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [4][27]. Core Insights - The automotive industry experienced an overall increase of 1.8% from May 4 to May 10, with significant movements in various segments, including a notable rise in motorcycle and auto parts sectors [2][10]. - Key developments include Geely's plan to acquire all issued shares of Zeekr, aiming for a complete merger, and Chery's delivery of the first batch of 220 humanoid robots [1][20][21]. - The report highlights the performance of individual stocks, with notable increases for companies like Chengfei Integration (+34.1%) and Wanxiang Qianchao (+29.8%) [12]. Market Performance Overview - The automotive sector's performance was positive, with the CS automotive index rising by 1.8%, while the broader market indices also showed gains, with the Shanghai A index up by 1.9% and the Shenzhen A index up by 2.9% [2][8]. - Among the automotive sub-sectors, motorcycles and auto parts saw the highest weekly increases of 2.7% and 2.4%, respectively [10]. Individual Stock Performance - The report notes that most covered automotive stocks saw increases, with Zongshen Power (+13.3%) and Qin'an Co. (+6.5%) among the top performers [3][14]. - Conversely, stocks like Longsheng Technology (-5.4%) and Sulian Co. (-3.6%) experienced declines [14]. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the impact of the May Day holiday on new energy vehicle sales, with a significant drop in sales for many brands, while Li Auto managed to increase its sales by 33% [18]. - The report also mentions the successful launch of 119 new charging stations by Li Auto, bringing the total to over 2,200 stations nationwide [22]. Key Developments - Geely's acquisition of Zeekr is expected to enhance resource integration and operational efficiency [21]. - Chery's humanoid robot delivery and the establishment of a joint venture for sensor technology indicate a strategic push into robotics [20][24]. - The report highlights the introduction of new models, such as BYD's Hai Si 07DM and Geely's Galaxy Star, which are set to launch soon [17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the humanoid robot industry, indicating a long-term investment opportunity [6][8]. Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry is witnessing increasing applications in manufacturing sectors such as automotive and home appliances, which is expected to enhance capabilities in motion control, perception, AI algorithms, and hardware integration [6]. - The report highlights several key events, including the global delivery of 220 units of the Chery Mocha humanoid robot and the entry of Midea's MIRO robot into its washing machine factory [1][3]. - The upcoming World Humanoid Robot Games in Beijing is anticipated to further promote the industry [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of investment opportunities in embodied intelligence, particularly in brain models and required chip solutions [7][12]. Summary by Sections Industry Events - Chery's Mocha humanoid robot has completed its first global delivery of 220 units, showcasing its capabilities in customer service at automotive dealerships [1]. - Midea's MIRO robot has started operations at its washing machine factory, performing routine tasks such as inspection and information collection [3]. - A new joint venture has been established by Zhongding to develop force sensors for humanoid robots, indicating a focus on enhancing robotic capabilities [4]. - Heng'erda plans to acquire German SMS Maschinenbau GmbH for €8.5 million, expanding its precision machinery business [5]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities related to embodied intelligence, including brain models and necessary chip solutions [7][12]. - It also highlights potential investments in companies involved in humanoid robot manufacturing and related technologies, such as Tesla, UBTECH, and others [12][13]. Market Performance - The humanoid robot sector has shown strong market performance, with a 15% absolute return over the past month and a 20.9% return over the past year [10]. - The report lists several stocks within the humanoid robot sector that have performed well, including Nanfang Precision and Rujing Technology, with year-to-date gains exceeding 90% for some [14].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: CRR Pricing Model for Convertible Bonds - **Model Construction Idea**: The CRR pricing model is based on the binomial tree framework, which incorporates embedded options, credit spreads, and other factors to calculate the theoretical value of convertible bonds. This model aims to identify pricing deviations in the convertible bond market and exploit the mean-reversion of these deviations[44][45]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Use the CRR binomial tree model to calculate the theoretical value of convertible bonds, considering embedded clauses and credit spreads. 2. Define the "pricing deviation" as the difference between the CRR theoretical price and the market price. 3. Select convertible bonds with the highest CRR price-to-market price ratio within each style (equity-like, balanced, and debt-like) for portfolio inclusion. 4. Portfolio construction: - Initial screening criteria: - Bond rating of AA- or above - Outstanding balance of at least 200 million yuan - Exclude stocks with ST or other special treatments - No historical rating downgrades or negative outlooks - Major shareholder pledge ratio below 90% - Active trading in the past 10 days - Redemption progress less than 5 days - Not below the bond floor - Style classification: - Equity-like: Parity > 110 - Balanced: Parity between 90 and 110 - Debt-like: Parity < 90 - Select the top 10 bonds with the highest CRR price-to-market price ratio in each style, totaling 30 bonds[45][51]. 5. Weighting and rebalancing: Equal weighting with monthly rebalancing[44][45]. - **Model Evaluation**: The CRR pricing model is more accurate than traditional methods like BSM due to its consideration of embedded clauses and credit spreads, making it suitable for identifying pricing inefficiencies in the convertible bond market[15][44]. 2. Model Name: Low Valuation Momentum Strategy for Convertible Bonds - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy combines low valuation and momentum factors to identify convertible bonds with low conversion premium levels and positive momentum in their underlying stocks[48][49]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Initial screening criteria: Same as the CRR pricing model[51]. 2. Style classification: Same as the CRR pricing model[51]. 3. Selection criteria: - Evaluate the relative valuation of convertible bonds (absolute and relative pricing) - Assess the short-term momentum of the underlying stocks - Combine these factors into a comprehensive score and select the top 10 bonds in each style, totaling 30 bonds[51]. 4. Weighting and rebalancing: Equal weighting with monthly rebalancing[51]. - **Model Evaluation**: The low valuation momentum strategy effectively combines valuation and momentum factors, making it a robust multi-factor strategy for convertible bond selection[49][51]. --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. CRR Pricing Model - **Monthly Return**: -0.51%[48] - **Annualized Return**: 15.17%[48] - **Annualized Volatility**: 12.82%[48] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 12.08%[48] - **Return-to-Volatility Ratio**: 1.18[48] - **Return-to-Drawdown Ratio**: 1.26[48] - **Monthly Win Rate**: 61.36%[48] 2. Low Valuation Momentum Strategy - **Monthly Return**: -0.28%[55] - **Annualized Return**: 15.16%[55] - **Annualized Volatility**: 12.84%[55] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 11.26%[55] - **Return-to-Volatility Ratio**: 1.18[55] - **Return-to-Drawdown Ratio**: 1.35[55] - **Monthly Win Rate**: 64.77%[55]