1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Oil prices continued to decline for the third consecutive trading day due to the weakening market risk - preference sentiment. The current crude oil market lacks clear drivers and will continue to fluctuate. EU - US trade negotiations and OPEC and IEA's demand forecasts are attracting attention [1][9]. - The fuel oil market is under pressure. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil has weakened further, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market continues to face supply pressure. It is advisable to hold the spread short - position for low - sulfur fuel oil [1][3]. - The asphalt market has limited supply increments. The single - sided driver is not obvious in the short term, and it mainly fluctuates narrowly following the cost - end crude oil. Short - term long positions can be considered after the oil price stabilizes [3]. - The polyester market is affected by the restart of some devices. The terminal is in a bottom - building and oscillating state. The EG price is supported in the short term, and the TA price will fluctuate strongly following the cost [3][4]. - The rubber market has increased in recent days due to raw material support and the macro - environment. However, investors should be cautious about chasing high prices [4]. - The methanol market has an increase in inventory. The current market - priced coal supply has decreased, and the methanol price will fluctuate strongly [4]. - The polyolefin market will gradually transition to a state of strong supply and demand. If the cost end does not decline significantly, the downside space is limited [6]. - The PVC market has a slight improvement in enterprise operations, but demand has not improved significantly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines due to excessive short - term market news [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, the WTI August contract closed down $0.99 to $66.21 per barrel, a 1.47% decline; the Brent September contract closed down $0.62 to $68.59 per barrel, a 0.90% decline; SC2509 closed at 503.5 yuan per barrel, down 2.8 yuan per barrel, a 0.55% decline. API data showed that as of the week ending July 18, US crude oil inventories decreased by 577,000 barrels, Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 314,000 barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.228 million barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 3.48 million barrels. The market is waiting for the EU - US trade negotiation results, and OPEC and IEA's demand forecasts for 2025 are attracting attention. The market lacks clear drivers, and the oil price will fluctuate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the SHFE closed up 0.1% at 2,924 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract LU2510 closed down 0.8% at 3,581 yuan per ton. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil has weakened, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure. The expected arrival volume from Europe in July will increase by 300,000 - 400,000 tons, and Singapore is expected to receive about 2.1 - 2.2 million tons of Western low - sulfur fuel oil in July, higher than 1.7 - 1.8 million tons in June. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is facing supply pressure from stable Middle - East shipments. The LU - FU spread has narrowed, and it is advisable to hold the spread short - position [1][3]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the SHFE closed down 1.42% at 3,657 yuan per ton. In August, northern demand will be further released, and some refineries' production enthusiasm has increased. However, refineries without crude oil quotas have no production plans due to negative profits, and some refineries in Shandong will be under maintenance in mid - August. The supply increment is limited. The demand is affected by rainfall, but there is supportive potential after the rainy season. The single - sided driver is not obvious in the short term, and it mainly fluctuates following the cost - end crude oil [3]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4,794 yuan per ton on the previous day, up 0.29%; the spot offer was at a premium of 3 yuan per ton to the 09 contract. EG2509 closed at 4,447 yuan per ton, up 0.84%, with the basis decreasing by 10 yuan per ton to 60 yuan per ton, and the spot price was 4,490 yuan per ton. The PX futures main contract 509 closed at 6,886 yuan per ton, up 0.35%. A 200,000 - ton/year synthetic - gas - to - ethylene - glycol plant in Shanxi has restarted and produced products, and a 300,000 - ton/year plant in Inner Mongolia is restarting and is expected to produce products around the end of July. The terminal is in a bottom - building and oscillating state, and the EG price is supported in the short term, while the TA price will fluctuate strongly following the cost [3][4]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main Shanghai rubber contract RU2509 rose 165 yuan per ton to 15,060 yuan per ton, the NR main contract rose 105 yuan per ton to 12,855 yuan per ton, and the butadiene rubber BR main contract rose 105 yuan per ton to 12,100 yuan per ton. Typhoon Webb has shifted northward, but it is still rainy in Hainan, Yunnan, and Vietnam. The output is blocked, and processing plants have difficulty in collecting latex. The Thai raw material price has increased, and the demand is stable. The price has increased recently, but investors should be cautious when chasing high prices [4]. - **Methanol**: The Taicang spot price was 2,412 yuan per ton on Tuesday, the Inner Mongolia northern - line price was 1,990 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was $270 - 274 per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was $328 - 333 per ton. The Iranian device load has recovered to the high point, and the arrival volume has increased. The downstream profit has recovered, and the subsequent start - up is expected to remain stable, with inventory continuing to increase. The current market - priced coal supply has decreased, and the methanol price will fluctuate strongly [4]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China drawn wire was 7,050 - 7,150 yuan per ton. The profit of oil - based PP was - 400.04 yuan per ton, the profit of coal - based PP production was 741.07 yuan per ton, and the profit of methanol - based PP production was - 702 yuan per ton. For PE, the price of HDPE film was 7,924 yuan per ton, the price of LDPE film was 9,403 yuan per ton, and the price of LLDPE film was 7,355 yuan per ton. The polyolefin market will gradually transition to a state of strong supply and demand, and if the cost end does not decline significantly, the downside space is limited [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Tuesday, the East China PVC market offer rose slightly, with the calcium - carbide - based type 5 material at 5,000 - 5,100 yuan per ton, and the ethylene - based material at 4,950 - 5,300 yuan per ton. The North China PVC market price was adjusted narrowly, and the South China PVC market price was firm. The enterprise operation has recovered, but the demand has not improved significantly. The basis and monthly spread have widened recently, and the arbitrage space has gradually opened. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines due to excessive short - term market news [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring Data on the basis of various energy - chemical products on July 23, 2025 are provided, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and the latest basis rate quantiles in historical data for multiple products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [7] 3.3 Market News - The US is in urgent trade negotiations with its partners. The crude oil price has declined for three consecutive trading days due to the weakening market risk - preference sentiment. The EU - US trade negotiation deadline is August 1. If no agreement is reached, the US will impose a 30% tariff on most EU export products [9]. - The Canadian Prime Minister has lowered the expectation of reaching a trade agreement with the US in the next 10 days. The US has threatened to impose a 35% tariff on Canadian goods not covered by the US - Mexico - Canada Agreement if no agreement is reached by August 1 [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [11][13][15] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: Charts show the basis of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc. [24][26][30] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts show the spreads of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, etc. [38][40][43] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: Charts show the spreads and ratios between different varieties of energy - chemical products, including crude oil internal - external spreads, B - W spreads of crude oil, high - low sulfur spreads of fuel oil, fuel oil/asphalt ratios, etc. [55][60][61] - **4.5 Production Profits**: Charts show the production profits of various energy - chemical products, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow, PP production profit, LLDPE production profit, etc. [64][65][67]

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 7 月 2 2 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 755.0 | 730.0 | 25.0 | I05-I09 | -54.0 | -55.0 | 1.0 | | I09 | 809.0 | 785.0 | 24.0 | I09-I01 | 32.5 | 32.0 | 0.5 | | I01 | 776.5 | 753.0 | 23.5 | I01-I05 | 21.5 | 23.0 | -1.5 | 图表1：09-01合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） 0 50 100 150 200 01 01 02 03 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On July 21, industrial silicon fluctuated strongly, with the main 2509 contract closing at 9,260 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 4.99%, and the position decreased by 3,956 lots to 383,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon spot was 9,297 yuan/ton, up 186 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade rose to 8,900 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened to 185 yuan/ton. Polysilicon fluctuated higher, with the main 2509 contract closing at 45,850 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 3.36%, and the position increased by 16,518 lots to 172,000 lots. The price of N-type polysilicon refeed material rose to 45,550 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material rose to 45,500 yuan/ton, with the spot discount widening to 385 yuan/ton [2]. - Large industrial silicon manufacturers have not yet resumed production. The increase in the southwest is less than the decrease in the northwest. After the cancellation of the electricity price subsidy in Xinjiang, the cost support strengthening and the resumption of production expectation have entered a game, returning to the range - oscillation mode, with the upper limit being the position where the capacity enters the market after the profit in the southwest is repaired. The photovoltaic industry chain is boosted by the anti - involution policy, but there is no actual improvement in supply and demand. The bulls trade on the confidence that if the spot price does not fall, the futures price will not fall, and the overall support of the disk is relatively strong. After both industrial silicon and polysilicon rose to high levels, large - scale hedging positions entered the market, and there were cases where polysilicon long positions left the market with profits. The margin of polysilicon has been increased, further increasing the difficulty of chasing the rise. Attention should be paid to the PS/SI ratio and the policy implementation rhythm to see if there will be a new wave of upward pull after the callback [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 8,820 yuan/ton on July 18 to 9,110 yuan/ton on July 21, an increase of 290 yuan/ton. The prices of various grades of industrial silicon spot also generally increased, with the current lowest deliverable price rising from 8,750 yuan/ton to 8,900 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened from - 90 yuan/ton to - 185 yuan/ton [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 43,850 yuan/ton on July 18 to 45,660 yuan/ton on July 21, an increase of 1,810 yuan/ton. The price of N - type granular silicon material increased by 9,000 yuan/ton, and the price of P - type polysilicon dense material and refeed material also increased by 3,500 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price rose from 43,500 yuan/ton to 45,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened from - 350 yuan/ton to - 385 yuan/ton [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The spot prices of DMC in the East China market, raw rubber, 107 glue, and dimethyl silicone oil all increased, with increases of 800 yuan/ton, 700 yuan/ton, 500 yuan/ton, and 2,500 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 252, the industrial silicon social inventory decreased by 1,400 tons, the polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the polysilicon social inventory decreased by 0.5 tons [4]. 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10] 3.2.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][15][17] 3.2.3 Inventory - Charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [20][23] 3.2.4 Cost - profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, industrial silicon weekly cost - profit, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [26][28][35] 3.3 Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team of Everbright Futures Research Institute includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience in non - ferrous metal research and new energy industry chain tracking [37][38]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures 2509 contract rose 2.53% to 71,280 yuan/ton yesterday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,350 yuan/ton to 68,000 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,300 yuan/ton to 66,350 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose by 600 yuan/ton to 63,379 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 270 tons to 9,969 tons [3]. - Jiangte Motor's wholly - owned subsidiary, Yichun Yinli New Energy Co., Ltd., will shut down for equipment maintenance on July 25, 2025, with an expected maintenance time of 26 days. Zimbabwe's state - owned mining enterprise Kuvimba Mining House plans to break ground on a concentrator with an annual processing capacity of 600,000 tons of lithium concentrate at its Sandawana mine in the third quarter of this year, with a total investment of $270 million and is expected to be put into operation in early 2027 [3]. - In terms of supply, the output in July is expected to increase by 3.9% month - on - month to 81,150 tons, and the weekly output increased by 302 tons to 19,115 tons. Among them, lithium extraction from spodumene increased by 330 tons to 9,324 tons, lithium extraction from lepidolite increased by 25 tons to 5,100 tons, lithium extraction from salt lakes increased by 17 tons to 3,282 tons, and lithium extraction from recycled materials decreased by 70 tons to 1,409 tons. In June 2025, China's lithium carbonate import volume was 17,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%. In terms of demand, the production schedule in July increased slightly month - on - month, and the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major main materials increased by 3% month - on - month to about 80,800 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory increased by 1,827 tons to 142,620 tons, among which the downstream inventory increased by 506 tons to 41,271 tons, the intermediate link inventory increased by 1,880 tons to 43,310 tons, and the upstream inventory decreased by 559 tons to 58,039 tons [3]. - The market sentiment continues to improve, the news is constantly fermenting, the warehouse receipts continue to decrease, and the price of lithium ore continues to rise. In the short term, it may still stimulate the price to rise. Attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt inventory [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 71,280 yuan/ton, up 1,320 yuan from July 18; the closing price of the continuous contract was 71,260 yuan/ton, up 1,380 yuan [5]. - Lithium ore: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was $730/ton, up $19; the price of lepidolite (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 990 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the price of lepidolite (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,545 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 5,175 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 6,075 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan [5]. - Lithium carbonate: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 68,000 yuan/ton, up 1,350 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 66,350 yuan/ton, up 1,300 yuan [5]. - Lithium hydroxide: The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 58,220 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 63,370 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 52,870 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan and South Korea) was $8.05/kg, unchanged [5]. - Lithium hexafluorophosphate: The price was 50,250 yuan/ton, up 750 yuan [5]. - Price differences: The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 1,650 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 9,780 yuan/ton, down 750 yuan; CIF China, Japan and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide - SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide was - 644.79 yuan/ton, down 581 yuan [5]. - Precursor and cathode materials: The prices of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/power type) and ternary precursor 523 (single - crystal/consumer type) were unchanged at 75,375 yuan/ton and 75,760 yuan/ton respectively; the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 107,000 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 111,210 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan [5]. - Cells and batteries: The prices of 523 square ternary cells, 523 soft - pack ternary cells, 523 cylindrical ternary batteries, square lithium iron phosphate cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells (small power type), and square lithium iron phosphate batteries were unchanged, while the price of cobalt - acid lithium cells was 5.53 yuan/Ah, up 0.01 yuan [5]. 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Ore Prices**: The report provides charts of the prices of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lepidolite (1.5% - 2.0%), lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - **3.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts of the prices of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 are presented [11][13][15]. - **3.3 Price Differences**: Charts of the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide - SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and the basis from 2024 to 2025 are shown [18][20]. - **3.4 Precursor & Cathode Materials**: Charts of the prices of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt - acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 are included [22][25][28]. - **3.5 Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts of the prices of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt - acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 are provided [31][33]. - **3.6 Inventory**: Charts of downstream inventory, smelter inventory, and other环节 inventory of lithium carbonate from November 2024 to July 2025 are presented [36][38]. - **3.7 Production Cost**: A chart of the production cost of lithium carbonate, including cash production profit from purchasing ternary pole piece black powder, lithium iron phosphate pole piece black powder, lithium mica concentrate, and spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025, is shown [40].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Cotton is expected to be in a volatile pattern. ICE US cotton fell 0.86% to 68.09 cents per pound on Monday, and CF509 decreased 0.8% to 14,185 yuan per ton. The main contract's open interest decreased by 21,871 lots to 558,900 lots. While the low - inventory situation remains unchanged, the upward driving force has weakened. Considering the strong expectation of a new cotton harvest and no obvious improvement in demand, it is difficult for prices to rise continuously. It is advisable to sell out - of - the - money call options with higher prices and buy out - of - the - money put options with lower prices [1]. - Sugar is also expected to be volatile. In June, China's imports of syrup and premixes totaled 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 103,500 tons. Due to concerns about over - production, raw sugar prices are under pressure. Domestically, sugar producers in the production areas are actively selling to reduce inventory, and the influence of processed sugar is gradually increasing. In the short term, prices lack a clear direction, and in the medium term, they depend on the pace and intensity of imported sugar [1]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Daily Data Monitoring - For cotton, the 9 - 1 spread is 195 yuan, a decrease of 110 yuan compared to the previous period. The main contract basis is 1,404 yuan, an increase of 166 yuan. The Xinjiang spot price is 15,480 yuan per ton, an increase of 56 yuan, and the national spot price is 15,589 yuan per ton, an increase of 81 yuan [2]. - For sugar, the 9 - 1 spread is 170 yuan, an increase of 1 yuan. The main contract basis is 241 yuan, a decrease of 13 yuan. The Nanning spot price is 6,060 yuan per ton, an increase of 10 yuan, and the Liuzhou spot price is 6,080 yuan per ton, unchanged [2]. 2. Market Information - On July 21, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 9,501, a decrease of 31 from the previous trading day, with 223 valid forecasts [3]. - On July 21, the cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 15,480 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,650 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,563 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,803 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [3]. - On July 21, the yarn comprehensive load was 49.9, unchanged from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 30.1, a decrease of 0.1; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 48.1, unchanged; and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 33.8, unchanged [3]. - On July 21, the sugar spot prices were 6,060 yuan per ton in Nanning, an increase of 10 yuan, and 6,080 yuan per ton in Liuzhou, unchanged [3]. - On July 21, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 21,437, a decrease of 40 from the previous trading day, with 0 valid forecasts [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts including cotton and sugar's main contract closing prices, basis, 9 - 1 spreads, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and China's cotton price index, with data sources from Wind and the research institute [6][11][13][15]. 4. Research Team Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry. He has won many awards [18]. - Zhang Linglu is a resource product analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass, and has won many honors [19]. - Sun Chengzhen is a resource product analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys, and has won relevant honors [20].

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 7 月 22 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一尿素期货价格高开后偏强运行，主力09合约收盘价1812元/吨，涨幅3.07%。现 货市场同步走强，主流地区价格上调20~30元/吨不等，山东、河南地区市场价格分 | | | | 别上涨至1830元/吨、1840元/吨。基本面来看，尿素供应水平继续小幅回落，昨日 | | | | 行业日产量19.22万吨，日环比降0.07万吨。需求端跟进情绪积极，主流地区产销率 | | | 尿素 | 多数攀升至100%以上，但区域间表现仍有分化。当前供需逻辑并非市场主导驱动， | 谨慎看涨 | | | 期货市场工业品及煤炭等原料上涨、反内卷等继续给尿素期价带来有力支撑，但受 | | | | 制于保供稳价政策限制，尿素期价上方空间依旧有限，短期谨慎看多但不建议过分 | | | | 追涨。关注尿素日产水平变化、下游需求跟进力度、商品市场整体走势。 | | | | 周一纯碱期货价格上涨明 ，现货市场小幅上涨，部分厂家再现 单现 ， 部碱 | | | | 厂 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report provides daily analysis and forecasts for various black commodities, including steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon. Most commodities are expected to show a strong or upward - trending performance in the short term due to factors such as policy expectations and market sentiment [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures market rose strongly. The Rb2510 contract closed at 3,224 yuan/ton, up 2.45%. Spot prices also increased, and the national building materials trading volume reached 127,800 tons. With the expected supply - side reform in the steel industry and large - scale infrastructure projects, the short - term rebar futures market is expected to continue its strong performance [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract i2509 of iron ore futures rose to 809 yuan/ton, up 3%. Port spot prices were strong. Global iron ore shipments increased, and iron water production remained high. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports continued to decline. It is expected that iron ore prices will remain in a high - level oscillation in the near future [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures market rose. The Jm2509 contract closed at 1,006 yuan/ton, up 8.64%. Spot prices increased. The upstream coal mine inventory has returned to a reasonable level, and coal mines are resuming production. Steel mills' demand for coke has improved, and it is expected that the short - term coking coal futures market will be strong [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures market rose. The J2509 contract closed at 1,603 yuan/ton, up 5.05%. Spot prices were stable. Coke enterprises initiated a second price increase after the first one was implemented. Steel mills' profitability is good, providing room for raw material price increases. The short - term coke futures market is expected to be strong [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price strengthened. The main contract closed at 5,914 yuan/ton, up 1.55%. Spot prices increased in some areas. Although the supply has been increasing for 9 consecutive weeks, the demand has decreased, and the inventory is still at a relatively high level. Driven by market sentiment, the short - term manganese silicon price is expected to be in a strong oscillation [1][3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price strengthened. The main contract closed at 5,688 yuan/ton, up 2.46%. Spot prices increased in most areas. The supply has increased slightly, the demand has decreased, and the inventory has declined. Market sentiment has a certain supporting effect on the ferrosilicon price, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate upward [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various black commodities, including steel, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, as well as profit and spread data such as rebar futures profit, long - process profit, short - process profit, and cross - variety spreads [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: It shows the closing price trends of the main contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [7][9][11][14]. - **Main Contract Basis**: It presents the basis trends of the main contracts of various black commodities over different time periods, including rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [17][18][21][23]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the spread trends of different contracts of various black commodities, such as rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [25][30][31][34][36]. - **Cross - variety Contract Spreads**: It presents the spread trends of different varieties of black commodities, including the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, the ratio of rebar to coke, the ratio of coke to iron ore, the ratio of coking coal to coke, and the spread between manganese silicon and ferrosilicon [39][41][43]. - **Rebar Profits**: It shows the profit trends of rebar futures, long - process calculation profit, and short - process calculation profit from 2020 to 2025 [44][48]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black research team, including their positions, work experience, and professional qualifications [50][51].

二、市场信息 1. 南部半岛棕榈油压榨商协会（SPPOMA）数据显示，2025 年 7 月 1-20 日马来西亚棕榈油单产环比上月 同期增加 7.03%，出油率环比上月同期减少 0.16%，产量环比上月同期增加 6.19%。 2. 马来西亚独立检验机构 Amspec 表示，马来西亚 7 月 1-20 日的棕榈油出口量为 740394 吨，上月同期为 798813 吨，环比减少 7.31%。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 | | 成利多，然而考虑到目前的高存栏及冷库蛋等供给问题，蛋价高点大概率低于去 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 2509 | 年同期。 周一，生猪主力 早盘反弹，随后有所回落，截至收盘，日收涨 1.63%，报收 | | | | 14365 元/吨。生猪现货方面，卓创数据显示，昨日中国生猪日度均价 14.4 元/公 斤，环比涨 0.24 元/公斤，基准交割地河南市场生猪均价 14.48 元/公斤，环比涨 | | | 生猪 | 0.02 元/公斤，广东、山东、四川、辽宁不同程度上涨。养殖端挺价意愿转强， | 震荡 | | | 叠加少 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight LME copper rose 0.74% to $9,867/ton, SHFE copper rose 0.64% to 79,770 yuan/ton, and domestic spot imports remained slightly in the red. LME inventory decreased by 100 tons to 122,075 tons, Comex inventory increased by 477 tons to 220,775 tons, and SMM's Monday statistics showed that the national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 24,700 tons to 118,600 tons compared to last Thursday. Affected by the off - season, consumption was weak, but concerns about rising copper prices prompted some enterprises to replenish stocks in advance. With the weakening of the US dollar, the continuation of US - copper arbitrage, concerns about the implementation of a 50% tariff, and the impact of domestic anti - involution policies, the willingness to short copper prices weakened, and prices remained strong. Be cautious about shorting before late July and early August, and also pay attention to whether domestic anti - involution policies can be implemented [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina trended higher, with overnight AO2509 closing at 3,430 yuan/ton, up 3.56%, and positions increasing by 8,162 lots to 229,700 lots. Shanghai aluminum trended stronger, with overnight AL2509 closing at 20,860 yuan/ton, up 0.55%, and positions increasing by 1,595 lots to 318,500 lots. Aluminum alloy trended stronger, with the overnight main contract AD2511 closing at 20,250 yuan/ton, up 0.6%, and positions decreasing by 267 lots to 9,752 lots. SMM's alumina price rebounded to 3,199 yuan/ton, and the spot premium of aluminum ingots widened to 100 yuan/ton. Due to some alumina plants being in the stage of maintenance, the replacement of southwest electrolytic aluminum production capacity, increased raw material stocking, and low warehouse receipt levels, spot circulation tightened, and alumina remained strong. Although the volume of delivery into warehouses may gradually peak, it is difficult to short under the anti - involution effect. New orders for electrolytic aluminum processing decreased, and off - season inventory accumulation started, which was in a game with low near - month warehouse receipts, providing short - term support. The registration of aluminum alloy warehouse receipts is approaching, and the tight supply of scrap aluminum is stronger than the weak off - season demand logic, but the one - sided rebound space is limited. Attention can be paid to the AL - AD spread arbitrage opportunity when the refined - scrap spread narrows [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight LME nickel rose 1.74% to $15,510/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 1.52% to 123,540 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 300 tons to 207,876 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 551 tons to 22,111 tons. In June 2025, China's refined nickel exports were 10,142.83 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,831 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 208 tons; this month's net import of refined nickel was 6,867.321 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.74% and a year - on - year increase of 26.20%. The weekly nickel ore price was stable, the nickel iron price was at a three - year low, and the tender price was 900 yuan/nickel point; nickel salt transactions were calm, and prices declined slightly. For stainless steel, cost support weakened, weekly inventory decreased, and supply in July decreased slightly month - on - month, and the supply - demand pattern may be gradually repaired. For primary nickel, domestic weekly inventory increased month - on - month, and market pressure became apparent. Short - term prices will still fluctuate, but volatility may increase, with market sentiment, overseas policies, and fundamentals in a game [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - copper increased from 78,610 yuan/ton on July 18 to 79,510 yuan/ton on July 21, with a rise of 900 yuan/ton. The premium of flat - copper increased by 50 yuan/ton. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong increased by 500 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread increased by 405 yuan/ton. The prices of oxygen - free and low - oxygen copper rods in Shanghai increased by 1,000 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively. The total inventory increased by 3,094 tons, and the social inventory (domestic + bonded area) decreased by 0.4 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River increased by 130 yuan/ton, and the premium of 1 lead ingots in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton. The price of lead concentrate in some regions increased by 100 yuan/ton, and the processing fee remained unchanged. The inventory increased by 7,186 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai increased by 220 yuan/ton and 190 yuan/ton respectively. The premium of aluminum decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The price of ADC12 aluminum alloy in South China increased by 100 yuan/ton. The total inventory increased by 5,625 tons, and the alumina social inventory decreased by 15,000 tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 1,400 yuan/ton, and the price difference between Jinchuan nickel and Wuxi increased by 250 yuan/ton. The price of low - nickel iron remained unchanged. The nickel inventory increased by 230 tons, and the stainless - steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price increased by 2.2%, and the SMM 0 and 1 spot prices increased by 500 yuan/ton. The domestic and imported zinc premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The inventory increased by 793 tons, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [5]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price increased by 0.6%, and the SMM spot price increased by 1,700 yuan/ton. The price of 60% and 40% tin concentrate decreased by 1,700 yuan/ton. The inventory increased by 51 tons, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the spread between the first and second contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][17][19]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [21][23][25]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [27][29][31]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventory for copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [33][35][37]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [40][42][44]. 3.3 Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial futures analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times. He has more than a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. His team has won the awards for the best metal industry futures research team of Futures Daily & Securities Times in the 15th and 16th sessions and the title of excellent non - ferrous metal industry team of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2016 [47]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide in Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research [47]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick in the UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel research [48].

1. Index Trends - On July 21st, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.72% to close at 3,559.79 points, with a trading volume of 730.906 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.86% to close at 11,007.49 points, with a trading volume of 969.074 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 0.92%, with a trading volume of 359.908 billion yuan, opening at 6,557.25, closing at 6,612.26, with a daily high of 6,614.61 and a low of 6,555.04 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 1.01%, with a trading volume of 272.008 billion yuan, opening at 6,115.03, closing at 6,161.31, with a daily high of 6,162.44 and a low of 6,110.99 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.28%, with a trading volume of 96.839 billion yuan, opening at 2,770.36, closing at 2,772.24, with a daily high of 2,777.05 and a low of 2,763.35 [1]. - The SSE 300 Index rose 0.67%, with a trading volume of 377.939 billion yuan, opening at 4,069.77, closing at 4,085.61, with a daily high of 4,086.12 and a low of 4,063.44 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 60.19 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as machinery, basic chemicals, and power equipment significantly driving the index up [5]. - The CSI 500 rose 61.7 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as non - ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and power equipment significantly driving the index up [5]. - The SSE 300 rose 27.06 points from the previous closing price, with sectors like power equipment, non - ferrous metals, and non - banking finance driving the index up, while the banking sector pulled it down [5]. - The SSE 50 rose 7.72 points from the previous closing price, with non - ferrous metals, non - banking finance, and power equipment driving the index up, and pharmaceutical biology and the banking sector pulling it down [5]. 3. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 50.58, IM01 of - 120.58, IM02 of - 303.37, and IM03 of - 462.59 [14]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 37.03, IC01 of - 85.76, IC02 of - 210.76, and IC03 of - 322.81 [14]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 6.09, IF01 of - 15.75, IF02 of - 47.51, and IF03 of - 73.04 [14]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of 0.92, IH01 of 1.2, IH02 of 4.32, and IH03 of 6.2 [14]. 4. Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - The report provides 15 - minute average data on the roll - over point differences and their annualized costs for IM, IC, IF, and IH contracts from 09:45 to 15:00 [21][23][25]