1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 16, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures 2511 contract rose 2.52% to 74,940 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at 73,000 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 70,750 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 50 yuan/ton to 73,130 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 2,620 tons to 30,456 tons [3]. - In terms of supply, the weekly output increased by 431 tons to 21,066 tons. Lithium extraction from spodumene increased by 100 tons to 13,164 tons, lithium extraction from lepidolite increased by 96 tons to 2,791 tons, lithium extraction from salt lakes increased by 210 tons to 3,114 tons, and lithium extraction from recycling increased by 25 tons to 1,997 tons. In terms of demand, the weekly output of ternary materials increased by 271 tons to 17,247 tons, and the weekly inventory of ternary materials increased by 114 tons to 17,963 tons; the weekly output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 572 tons to 85,039 tons, and the weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate increased by 970 tons to 102,818 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory decreased by 2,143 tons to 132,658 tons, with downstream inventory decreasing by 2,030 tons to 57,735 tons, intermediate link inventory increasing by 350 tons to 40,640 tons, and upstream inventory decreasing by 464 tons to 34,283 tons [3]. - This week, the warehouse receipt inventory has been continuously decreasing. With supply - side news disturbances and good weekly data, the futures price fluctuated and rose yesterday. Currently, it is the peak demand season, lithium carbonate is being destocked, and lithium ore prices are firm. The weekly fundamentals further strengthen the price support. There are still expectations of project resumptions, so in the short term, it will still run with a bias towards fluctuations, but the volatility may increase [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Futures, spot, and warehouse receipt data: The lithium carbonate futures 2511 contract rose 2.52% to 74,940 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at 73,000 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 70,750 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 50 yuan/ton to 73,130 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 2,620 tons to 30,456 tons [3]. - Supply, demand, and inventory data: Supply increased by 431 tons to 21,066 tons from different sources. Demand - side production and inventory of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate both increased. The overall inventory decreased by 2,143 tons to 132,658 tons, with different trends in downstream, intermediate, and upstream inventories [3]. - Market trend judgment: Due to factors such as continuous destocking of warehouse receipts, supply - side news disturbances, and good weekly data, the futures price rose. With the peak demand season, destocking of lithium carbonate, and firm lithium ore prices, the short - term market will run with fluctuations and increasing volatility [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Price changes of various products: Futures contract prices (主力合约收盘价 and 连续合约收盘价) increased, prices of some lithium ores (such as lithium mica and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone) increased, prices of some lithium salts (such as battery - grade lithium hydroxide) decreased, and prices of some other products (such as hexafluorophosphate lithium) increased [5]. - Price differences: The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged, while the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased [5]. - Cell and battery prices: Most cell and battery prices remained unchanged, except for the cobalt - acid lithium cell price which increased slightly [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Ore prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium - containing ores such as spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone from 2024 to 2025 [6][8][9]. - Lithium and lithium salt prices: Charts display the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and hexafluorophosphate lithium from 2024 to 2025 [10][12][14]. - Price differences: Charts present the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and some international - domestic price differences, as well as the basis from 2024 to 2025 [17][18][22]. - Precursor and cathode material prices: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese - acid lithium, and cobalt - acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [24][26][29]. - Lithium battery prices: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium - iron phosphate cells, cobalt - acid lithium cells, and square lithium - iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [32][34]. - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from February 27, 2025, to October 16, 2025 [37][38][39]. - Production costs: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉, 外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉, 外购锂云母精矿, and 外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [41][42].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea: The spot price of urea increased slightly on Thursday. The supply level continued to decline, and the demand follow - up was still insufficient. The inventory of enterprises increased by 11.88% this week. The futures and spot markets' pessimistic sentiment eased, but the market was short of drivers. The futures price was expected to fluctuate at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the India tender results, export policies, northern weather, and spot trading [1]. - Soda Ash: The spot price of soda ash was basically stable on Thursday. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand was stable. The inventory of enterprises increased by 2.45%. The futures market had no new drivers, and the futures price continued to consolidate at the bottom. It might gradually trade on the macro - policy expectations such as the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee. Attention should be paid to the macro - sentiment, policy dynamics, and related commodity trends [1]. - Glass: The spot price of glass declined on Thursday. The daily melting volume remained stable. The demand follow - up slowed down, and the inventory of enterprises increased by 2.31%. The market sentiment was weak, and the futures price was expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the policy orientation of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee and macro - sentiment [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea - Market Information: On October 16, the futures warehouse receipts of urea decreased by 55 to 6438, with 21 valid forecasts. The daily output was 18.12 tons, a decrease of 0.34 tons from the previous day and 0.95 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 77.45%, 8.07 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The spot prices in Shandong, Henan, etc., increased by 10 yuan/ton. As of October 15, the enterprise inventory was 161.54 tons, an increase of 17.15 tons or 11.88% from last week [4][5]. Soda Ash and Glass - Market Information: On October 16, the futures warehouse receipts of soda ash increased by 1427 to 9283, with 806 valid forecasts; the glass futures warehouse receipts remained at 0. The spot prices of soda ash were flat. The weekly output of soda ash decreased by 3.03 tons or 3.93% to 74.05 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 3.48 percentage points to 84.93%. The enterprise inventory increased by 0.94% from Monday and 2.45% from last Thursday. The average market price of float glass was 1246 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the daily output remained unchanged. As of October 16, the national float glass enterprise inventory increased by 2.31% week - on - week to 6427.6 million weight boxes, and the inventory days increased by 0.6 days to 27.3 days [7][8]. Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts including the closing prices, basis, trading volume, and positions of urea and soda ash futures contracts, as well as the price spreads between different contracts and the price spreads between different commodities. All chart data sources are iFind and the Research Institute of Everbright Futures [10][11][13][16][17][18]. Group 4: Research Team Introduction - The resource product research team includes Zhang Xiaojin, the research director focusing on the sugar industry; Zhang Linglu, responsible for research on urea, soda ash, and glass; and Sun Chengzhen, engaged in research on cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each specific energy and chemical product, the short - term outlook is mainly "oscillating" [1][3][5][6][8]. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overall, the current energy and chemical market is affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, international policies, and crude oil price trends. Most product prices are expected to show oscillating trends, with some facing downward pressure due to factors like increased supply or geopolitical influences [1][3][5][6][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices declined. WTI November contract closed down $0.81 to $57.46 per barrel, a 1.39% drop; Brent December contract closed down $0.85 to $61.06 per barrel, a 1.37% drop; SC2511 closed at 435.1 yuan per barrel, down 8.1 yuan per barrel, a 1.83% decline. U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 3.5 million barrels to 423.8 million barrels last week, and EIA crude oil production reached a record high of 13.64 million barrels per day. India may reduce Russian oil imports. Overall, oil prices will continue to decline under supply - demand pressure [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.94% to 2,694 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2512 rose 0.03% to 3,159 yuan per ton. Singapore and Fujeirah fuel oil inventories increased. Short - term high - sulfur fundamentals may be slightly stronger than low - sulfur, but under the pressure of Trump's new tariffs on oil prices, the absolute prices of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils will oscillate weakly [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2511 rose 0.55% to 3,250 yuan per ton. This week, domestic asphalt shipments increased, but the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises decreased. There is still some construction rush expectation after the holiday, but previous significant production increases may suppress prices. Under the pressure of Trump's new tariffs on oil prices, asphalt will oscillate weakly in the short term, with a smaller decline than crude oil and fuel oil [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601, EG2601, and PX futures contracts all rose on Thursday. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were differentiated, with an average of about 60%. PTA and EG production capacity increased, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. Polyester chain prices will fluctuate with crude oil prices in the short term, and cost reduction may stimulate polyester factories' restocking demand [3][5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contracts RU2601, NR, and BR all rose. The main rubber - producing areas are in normal tapping season. The basis of the 20 - type rubber strengthened, and the inventory of downstream tire products is high. The price of natural rubber will oscillate [5]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, methanol spot prices showed different trends. The domestic supply has recovered, and overseas Iranian devices have resumed production, but future production increases are limited due to winter gas restrictions. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of going long on methanol and short on polyolefins and the positive spread strategy between months [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Thursday, polyolefin prices showed different trends. The short - term supply will remain high, and the marginal increase in demand in October will gradually decline. With the weakening of crude oil prices, polyolefin prices will be weak [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Thursday, PVC prices in different regions showed oscillating trends. The supply remains high, domestic demand has slowed down, and exports are expected to be weak. The total inventory pressure is large, and PVC prices are expected to oscillate weakly [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on October 16 and 15, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [9]. 3.3 Market News - U.S. President Trump said that Indian Prime Minister Modi promised to stop purchasing Russian crude oil, but India did not comment. Some Indian refiners are preparing to reduce Russian oil imports. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed that last week, U.S. crude oil inventories increased more than expected, and EIA crude oil production reached a record high [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [15][16][17][19][20][22][24][28][29][30]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [31][35][36][39][42][43]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, etc. [45][47][50][53][56][58]. - **4.4 Inter - product Spreads**: It presents the spread charts between different products, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, B - W spreads of crude oil, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [60][65][66][67]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the cash - flow chart of ethylene - based ethylene glycol production and the production profit charts of PP and LLDPE [69][71]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, research areas, and relevant qualifications [75][76][77][78]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is on the 6th floor, Unit 703, No. 729, Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [80].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for stock index futures is "relatively strong", and for treasury bond futures is "volatile" [1] Core Viewpoints - The A-share market was volatile and differentiated yesterday, with the technology sector falling again. The Wind All A index dropped 0.44%, and the trading volume was 1.95 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 index declined 1.09%, the CSI 500 index fell 0.86%, while the SSE 50 index rose 0.59% and the SSE 300 index increased 0.26%. The resurgence of Sino-US trade disputes may impact the index in the short term, but there are still many uncertainties. Before the important meeting on October 20, the index may be in an adjustment phase. Some domestic securities firms have adjusted the margin conversion ratio of some stocks from 60% to 0, which may affect the valuation of technology stocks if leveraged funds leave in the short term. However, the long-term upward momentum of the index mainly comes from internal policy expectations, which remain unchanged. The short-term decline in IV may be a buying opportunity, and small positions can be used to layout out-of-the-money call options for November. Domestically, the Politburo meeting in September announced that the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held in Beijing on October 20, and the market has high expectations for the meeting content [1] - Treasury bond futures closed with the 30-year main contract up 0.42%, the 10-year main contract up 0.06%, the 5-year main contract down 0.01%, and the 2-year main contract down 0.01%. The central bank conducted 236 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations with a stable interest rate of 1.4%. There were 612 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the open market, resulting in a net withdrawal of 376 billion yuan. In the inter-bank market, the weighted average rate of DR001 rose 0.01bp to 1.3139%, and DR007 rose 0.55bp to 1.4225%. In the exchange repurchase market, the weighted average rate of GC001 fell 13.98bp to 1.3906%, and GC007 fell 1.29bp to 1.4754%. With the central bank's support, the liquidity situation has marginally eased. The escalation of the Sino-US tariff war has increased risk aversion, and treasury bonds are expected to perform strongly next week. However, the central bank did not restart treasury bond trading in September, and the expectation of monetary policy interest rate cuts has cooled, along with the increase in quasi-fiscal tools, so treasury bonds lack the impetus for significant upward movement [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The A-share market showed a mixed performance, with the technology sector weakening. Sino-US trade disputes and the adjustment of margin conversion ratios may impact the market in the short term, but long-term policy expectations remain positive. Small positions can be used to buy out-of-the-money call options for November [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures had different performances, and the central bank's operations led to a marginal easing of liquidity. The escalation of the tariff war increased risk aversion, but treasury bonds lack the momentum for significant upward movement [1][2] 2. Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: IH rose 0.72%, IF increased 0.30%, IC dropped 1.10%, and IM declined 0.96% [3] - **Stock Indexes**: The SSE 50 index rose 0.59%, the SSE 300 index increased 0.26%, the CSI 500 index fell 0.86%, and the CSI 1000 index declined 1.09% [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS fell 0.02%, TF dropped 0.02%, T rose 0.03%, and TL increased 0.33% [3] - **Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year treasury bonds increased slightly, while the 30-year treasury bond yield decreased [3] 3. Market News - A Federal Reserve governor suggested a 50-basis-point interest rate cut, but the actual cut is expected to be 25 basis points. Tariffs may cause inflation, but it has not shown up yet. The expected economic growth rate in 2025 is about 2% [4][5][6] 4. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM main contracts [7][8][9][11] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: It shows the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond yields, basis, inter-period spreads, cross-variety spreads, and capital interest rates [14][15][18][20] - **Exchange Rates**: The report includes the middle rates of the US dollar and euro against the RMB, as well as forward exchange rates and currency exchange rates [22][23][24][26][28][29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report No core viewpoints are explicitly presented in the provided content. The report mainly presents data on stock index trends, the impact of sector movements on indices, and data related to stock index futures, without summarizing a clear core view. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Index Trends - On October 16th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.1% to close at 3916.23 points, with a trading volume of 869.265 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25% to close at 13086.41 points, with a trading volume of 1061.873 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index fell 1.09% with a trading volume of 374.297 billion yuan; the CSI 500 Index fell 0.86% with a trading volume of 359.838 billion yuan; the SSE 50 Index rose 0.59% with a trading volume of 152.08 billion yuan; the CSI 300 Index rose 0.26% with a trading volume of 560.567 billion yuan [1]. 3.2 Impact of Sector Movements on Indices - The CSI 1000 Index dropped 81.61 points compared to the previous closing price, with the computer, machinery, and electronics sectors having a significant downward pull on the index [2]. - The CSI 500 Index dropped 62.47 points compared to the previous closing price, with the national defense and military industry, basic chemicals, and non - ferrous metals sectors having a significant downward pull on the index [2]. - The CSI 300 Index rose 12.13 points compared to the previous closing price, with the banking, communication, and power equipment sectors having an upward pull on the index, while the computer, electronics, and non - ferrous metals sectors had a downward pull [2]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 17.85 points compared to the previous closing price, with the banking, food and beverage, and non - banking finance sectors having an upward pull on the index, while the electronics and non - ferrous metals sectors had a downward pull [2]. 3.3 Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 17.83, IM01 had - 129.92, IM02 had - 215.88, and IM03 had - 433.95 [13]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 20.15, IC01 had - 114.62, IC02 had - 176.02, and IC03 had - 337.99 [13]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 3.64, IF01 had - 18.94, IF02 had - 29.69, and IF03 had - 53.04 [13]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of 0.81, IH01 had - 0.91, IH02 had - 0.26, and IH03 had - 0.75 [13]. 3.4 Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - Data on the roll - over point differences and their annualized costs for IM, IC, IF, and IH contracts are presented in the form of tables and figures, showing the point differences and costs at different time points [23][24][26][28].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Oscillatory rebound [1] - Soybean Meal: Oscillatory [1] - Oils: Rising [1] - Eggs: Oscillatory [1] - Pigs: Oscillatory [2] 2. Core Views - Corn futures showed a low - level stabilization after a sharp fall, with farmers' reluctance to sell due to cooling weather, while the spot price continued to decline due to factors like concentrated supply in the production area [1]. - Soybean meal futures were oscillatory, with the domestic market being weak due to sufficient supply in the fourth quarter, despite high - than - expected September crushing volume in the US [1]. - Oils futures were rising. Although there were short - term pressures, the medium - to - long - term trend was positive, and it was recommended to buy on dips, influenced by factors such as improved export data of Malaysian palm oil [1]. - Eggs futures oscillated higher. The spot price was stable, with short - term supply pressure due to high egg - laying hen inventory [1]. - Pig futures oscillated at a low level. The spot price continued to decline, and the futures price was dragged down by the spot market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Corn**: The November contract of corn futures closed with a small positive line on Wednesday. The spot price continued to fall, but farmers' willingness to store increased due to cooling weather. The price in the Northeast was weak, and the North Port faced pressure. In the North China region, the price of wet corn fell more. The price in the sales area also decreased. Technically, the pressure from the expected bumper harvest was gradually released, and the futures price showed a low - level stabilization [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybean futures closed flat to slightly higher on Wednesday. NOPA's September crushing volume reached a record high. The domestic protein meal market was weakly oscillatory, with a soft market performance due to factors like sufficient supply [1]. - **Oils**: BMD palm oil fell for the third consecutive day on Wednesday, but positive export data offset concerns. High - frequency data showed a 16.2% month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil exports from October 1 - 15. Domestic vegetable oils rebounded, following the improvement in the macro - sentiment. It was recommended to buy on dips in the medium - to - long - term [1]. - **Eggs**: Egg futures oscillated higher on Wednesday. The spot price was stable, with improved sales in some areas after the rainy weather ended. However, due to high egg - laying hen inventory, there was supply pressure, and it was recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Pigs**: Pig futures first rose and then fell on Wednesday, closing with a small negative line. The spot price continued to decline, and the futures price was dragged down by the spot market. The daily slaughter volume increased, and the average weight decreased slightly [2]. Market Information - Malaysian palm oil exports from October 1 - 15 increased by 12.3% (AmSpec data) and 16.2% (ITS data) compared to the same period last month [2][3]. - India's vegetable oil imports in September slightly decreased compared to August [3]. - Trump accused China of deliberately stopping importing US soybeans, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry responded [3]. - Indonesia plans to increase the export tax on crude palm oil from 10% to 15% to fund the transition from the B40 to B50 biodiesel program [4]. Variety Spreads - The report presents various contract spreads and contract basis charts for multiple agricultural products such as corn, soybean, oil, eggs, and pigs, including 1 - 5 spreads and related basis [5][6][7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On October 15, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures 2511 contract fell 0.6% to 72,720 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at 73,000 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 70,750 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 50 yuan/ton to 73,180 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 2,104 tons to 33,076 tons [3]. - The overall supply is expected to increase month - on - month. The domestic weekly production continued to increase slightly, with the lithium carbonate production in October increasing 3% month - on - month to about 90,000 tons. In terms of imports and exports, the export volume of lithium carbonate from Chile decreased in September, which may have a certain but not significant impact on the import of lithium salts in October. On the demand side, October is still in the peak season. The consumption of lithium carbonate by two major main materials increased 2% month - on - month to 104,800 tons, and the total consumption of lithium carbonate by cathode materials, electrolytes, and others increased 7% month - on - month to 123,800 tons. In terms of inventory, the total inventory continued to decline to 135,000 tons, and the total inventory turnover days decreased significantly. From the perspective of weekly inventory flow, downstream and intermediate links reduced inventory, while upstream increased inventory [3]. - The peak demand season, lithium carbonate inventory reduction, and firm lithium ore prices support the price. However, there is still an expectation of project复产, and with the addition of overseas import increments, the domestic tight balance will gradually be alleviated, and the price will fluctuate in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures**: The closing price of the main contract was 72,720 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the closing price of the continuous contract was 72,660 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [5]. - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) remained at 828 US dollars/ton; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) remained at 1,025 yuan/ton; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) remained at 1,725 yuan/ton; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) increased 45 yuan to 6,025 yuan/ton; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) increased 55 yuan to 7,125 yuan/ton [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at 73,000 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 70,750 yuan/ton; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 50 yuan to 73,180 yuan/ton; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) dropped 50 yuan to 78,150 yuan/ton; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 100 yuan to 67,900 yuan/ton; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) dropped 0.03 US dollars/kg to 9.45 US dollars/kg [5]. - **Lithium Hexafluorophosphate**: The price increased 500 yuan to 74,000 yuan/ton [5]. - **Price Spreads**: The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 2,250 yuan/ton; the price spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased 50 yuan to 180 yuan/ton; the difference between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased 188 yuan to - 6,089.73 yuan/ton [5]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: The price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/power type) increased 2,000 yuan to 101,650 yuan/ton; the price of ternary precursor 523 (single - crystal/consumer type) increased 1,200 yuan to 92,825 yuan/ton; the price of ternary precursor 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) increased 1,300 yuan to 85,550 yuan/ton; the price of ternary precursor 811 (polycrystalline/power type) increased 1,000 yuan to 104,825 yuan/ton; the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) increased 3,500 yuan to 125,425 yuan/ton; the price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) increased 3,000 yuan to 128,500 yuan/ton; the price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) increased 1,000 yuan to 126,275 yuan/ton; the price of ternary material 811 (power type) increased 1,200 yuan to 155,800 yuan/ton; the price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) remained at 33,530 yuan/ton; the price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - to - high - end energy storage) remained at 32,135 yuan/ton; the price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy storage) remained at 29,350 yuan/ton; the price of lithium manganate (power type) dropped 1,000 yuan to 32,000 yuan/ton; the price of lithium manganate (capacity type) dropped 250 yuan to 30,250 yuan/ton; the price of cobalt acid lithium (60%, 4.35V/domestic) increased 9,500 yuan to 351,000 yuan/ton [5]. - **Cells and Batteries**: The price of 523 square ternary cells remained at 0.396 yuan/Wh; the price of 523 soft - pack ternary cells remained at 0.41 yuan/Wh; the price of 523 cylindrical ternary batteries remained at 4.42 yuan/piece; the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells remained at 0.332 yuan/Wh; the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells (small power type) remained at 0.34 yuan/Wh; the price of cobalt acid lithium cells increased 0.1 yuan to 6.75 yuan/Ah; the price of square lithium iron phosphate batteries remained at 0.303 yuan/Wh [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts 1 - 4 show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8] - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts 5 - 10 show the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [10][14] - **Price Spreads**: Charts 11 - 15 show the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF Asia) and domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate, and the basis from 2024 to 2025 [18][21] - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: Charts 16 - 20 show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [24][27][29] - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts 21 - 24 show the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [31][33] - **Inventory**: Charts 25 - 27 show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from February 20, 2025, to October 9, 2025 [37][39] - **Production Costs**: Chart 28 shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper rose and then fell, while in China, it fluctuated within a narrow range, and the spot import window remained closed. High copper prices made downstream buyers cautious. The market is expected to remain cautious until substantial progress is made in Sino - US trade. Copper prices may stay at a relatively high level due to the ongoing impact of the Indonesian mine accident, but the probability of prices exceeding the previous domestic historical high is low [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina fluctuated weakly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly. Alumina is generally bearish but may be bottoming out. The market is re - evaluating the demand fulfillment in the second half of the "Silver October." Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong, but whether they can rise further depends on further improvement in demand [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel rose 0.3%, while Shanghai nickel fell 0.11%. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely. The inventory pressure of primary nickel is becoming apparent, and attention should be paid to macro - level disturbances [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: The Fed Chairman's speech and the Fed's Beige Book have an impact on the market. High copper prices lead to downstream caution. The market is cautious about Sino - US trade. Copper prices may be high but are unlikely to exceed previous domestic highs [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina prices fell, and aluminum prices showed different trends. Alumina production capacity at high costs has turned to losses and stopped production. The supply pressure of aluminum ingots has eased, and the destocking process is relatively optimistic [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel and Shanghai nickel had different price movements. Nickel ore is relatively stable, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy. The nickel - stainless steel and new - energy industries have different trends, and nickel prices will fluctuate widely [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Prices of various copper products decreased, and inventory increased. The active - contract import loss widened [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead remained unchanged, and inventory decreased [3]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices showed different trends, and inventory increased slightly. The active - contract import loss widened [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of some nickel products increased, and inventory increased. The active - contract import loss widened [4]. - **Zinc**: The price of zinc decreased, and inventory increased [6]. - **Tin**: The price of tin decreased, and inventory showed different trends [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium and Discount**: Charts show the spot premium and discount trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][8][10][11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts show the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][19]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts show the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [22][24][26]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [28][30][32]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts show the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [34][36][38]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [41][43][47]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience and professional qualifications in non - ferrous metal research [50][51].

Group 1: Index Trends - On October 15th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.22% to close at 3912.21 points, with a trading volume of 961.552 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.73% to close at 13118.75 points, with a trading volume of 1111.306 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 1.5% with a trading volume of 403.798 billion yuan, opening at 7384.01, closing at 7483.45, with a daily high of 7484.05 and a low of 7315.48 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 1.38% with a trading volume of 397.459 billion yuan, opening at 7205.74, closing at 7294.0, with a daily high of 7294.0 and a low of 7153.42 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 1.36% with a trading volume of 157.106 billion yuan, opening at 2962.75, closing at 3001.35, with a daily high of 3003.0 and a low of 2958.45 [1]. - The SSE 300 Index rose 1.48% with a trading volume of 607.326 billion yuan, opening at 4544.24, closing at 4606.29, with a daily high of 4608.82 and a low of 4526.83 [1]. Group 2: Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 110.3 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics, power equipment, and pharmaceutical biology significantly pulling up the index [3]. - The CSI 500 rose 99.15 points from the previous close, with electronics, power equipment, and pharmaceutical biology sectors significantly pulling up the index [3]. - The SSE 300 rose 67.23 points from the previous close, with electronics, power equipment, and non - bank finance sectors significantly pulling up the index [3]. - The SSE 50 rose 40.25 points from the previous close, with non - bank finance, non - ferrous metals, and electronics sectors significantly pulling up the index [3]. Group 3: Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - IM00 average daily basis was - 10.46, IM01 was - 103.63, IM02 was - 188.68, IM03 was - 409.38 [12]. - IC00 average daily basis was - 8.59, IC01 was - 90.05, IC02 was - 145.37, IC03 was - 306.52 [12]. - IF00 average daily basis was - 1.45, IF01 was - 15.46, IF02 was - 25.74, IF03 was - 47.9 [12]. - IH00 average daily basis was 0.53, IH01 was - 2.86, IH02 was - 2.45, IH03 was - 1.31 [12]. Group 4: Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IM, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00 are provided, such as at 09:45, IM00 - 01 was - 73.02267, IM00 - 02 was - 259.4522, etc. [28]. - For IC, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00 are provided, such as at 09:45, IC00 - 01 was - 68.64222, IC00 - 02 was - 225.568, etc. [29]. - For IF, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00 are provided, such as at 09:45, IF00 - 01 was - 12.31678, IF00 - 02 was - 41.14122, etc. [24]. - For IH, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00 are provided, such as at 09:45, IH00 - 01 was 0.707, IH00 - 02 was 1.4593333, etc. [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating weakly [1] - Iron ore: Oscillating [1] - Coking coal: Oscillating [1] - Coke: Oscillating [1] - Manganese silicon: Weakly oscillating [3] - Ferrosilicon: Weakly oscillating [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The current steel production remains high, inventory accumulates, and supply - demand pressure increases. With the weak data performance and the decline in new RMB loans in September, the short - term steel futures market is expected to continue to move weakly [1]. - Iron ore: Although the supply and demand of iron ore have declined, the demand is still at a high level, which provides strong support for prices. Under the influence of multiple factors, the short - term ore price is expected to continue to oscillate [1]. - Coking coal: The supply of coking coal is basically stable, and the market sentiment is fair. The iron - making production is still at a high level, but the profitability of coking and steel enterprises is poor, so the short - term coking coal futures market is expected to oscillate widely [1]. - Coke: The coking enterprises' production is stable, and the downstream demand is good, but the steel mills' profits are shrinking, and the coke procurement is still cautious. Therefore, the short - term coke futures market is expected to oscillate widely [1]. - Manganese silicon: The production of manganese silicon has slightly declined from the high level, and the demand is limited. The market is waiting for the final price of the mainstream steel procurement. The cost of manganese ore has fluctuated. The short - term manganese silicon market is expected to fluctuate following the black - commodity sector [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The production of ferrosilicon enterprises remains at a high level, the demand for steel is weak, and the inventory is at a high level in recent years. The short - term ferrosilicon market is expected to oscillate weakly [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures continued to decline. The spot price dropped, and the trading volume decreased. The national building materials production decreased slightly, inventory accumulated, and apparent demand increased slightly. The short - term rebar futures market is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - **Iron ore**: The iron ore futures price fell. The port spot price decreased. The global, Australian, and Brazilian shipments declined, and the iron - making production decreased slightly. The short - term ore price is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Coking coal**: The coking coal futures price dropped. The spot price of some coal types increased. The supply was stable, and the demand remained high, but the profitability of downstream enterprises was poor. The short - term coking coal futures market is expected to oscillate widely [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures price declined. The port spot price increased. The coking enterprises' production was stable, and the downstream demand was good, but the steel mills' profits were shrinking. The short - term coke futures market is expected to oscillate widely [1]. - **Manganese silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price was strong first and then weak. The spot price in some regions increased. The production decreased slightly, and the demand was limited. The market is waiting for the final price of the mainstream steel procurement. The short - term manganese silicon market is expected to fluctuate following the black - commodity sector [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price weakened in the afternoon. The spot price in some regions increased. The production remained high, the demand for steel was weak, and the inventory was high. The short - term ferrosilicon market is expected to oscillate weakly [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: The contract spreads of various varieties have different degrees of change, such as the 1 - 5 month spread of rebar being - 56.0, a decrease of 3.0 compared to the previous period [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of each variety also shows different trends. For example, the 01 - contract basis of rebar is 156.0, an increase of 7.0 compared to the previous period [4]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of different varieties and regions have risen and fallen. For example, the Shanghai rebar spot price is 3190.0, a decrease of 20.0 compared to the previous period [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: The profits and spreads of different varieties have changed. For example, the rebar futures profit is - 111.2, a decrease of 11.7 compared to the previous period [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: The report provides the closing price trends of the main contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [6][7][10] - **Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis trends of the main contracts of various black commodities from 2022 to 2026, such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [17][18][21] - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report presents the spread trends of inter - period contracts of various black commodities from 2019 to 2026, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [27][31][32] - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: The report shows the spread trends of inter - variety contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, such as the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, etc. [42][43][44] - **Rebar Profit**: The report provides the profit trends of rebar from 2020 to 2025, including futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [47][48][52] 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The black research team of Everbright Futures includes members such as Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional expertise in the black - commodity field [54][55]