黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报 | | 场预期，带动商品价格走强。锰矿方面，康密劳公布 2025 年 6 月对华加蓬块报报价 4.4 美元/吨度，环比 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 下跌 0.4 美元/吨度；联合矿业(CML)公布 2025 年 6 月对华报价出台，Mn>46% Fe<6% Si02<18%澳块报 4.7 | | | | 美元/吨度，环比上月下跌 0.4 美元/吨度，锰矿成本支撑有限。综合来看，短期宏观情绪叠加市场消息刺 | | | | 激带动下，预计短期锰硅期价上方仍有一定空间，但幅度不看太高，后续持续关注宏观及减产情况。 | | | | 硅铁：周一，硅铁期价震荡走强，主力合约报收 5636 元/吨，环比上涨 1.55%，主力合约持仓环比增加 21649 | | | | 手。72 号硅铁汇总价格约 5350-5550 元/吨，宁夏地区较前一日上涨 50 元/吨。昨日大宗商品多数走强， | | | | 黑色板块整体偏强，硅铁期价重心随之上移。宏观情绪刺激叠加主产区减产消息，带动硅铁价格上涨。昨 | | | 硅铁 | 日中美公布日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明，谈判效果超出市场预期， ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 5 月 13 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | | | | | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | 隔夜 LME 铜冲高回落。宏观方面，据美国财政部的最新数据，美国 4 月预算盈余 2584 | | | | | | | | 亿美元，上年同期为盈余 2095 亿美元；4 月份美国海关关税收入达到 163 亿美元，创 | | | | | | | | 历史新高，同比增长 92 亿美元，增幅达 130%，该数据在一定程度上缓解了赤字压力， | | | | | | | | | | | 预算赤字没有进一步扩大。另外，中美谈判取得超预期进展，中美各取消了共计 91%的 | | | | | | | | | 加征关税，暂停实施 24%的反制关税。库存方面，LME 铜库存下降 1025 吨至 190750 | | | | 吨。国内需求方面，当前订单相对平稳，但旺季转淡季预期下，终端需求订单可能逐步 | | | | | | | | | 放缓。中美贸易谈判取得超预期进展，预计将推动风险偏好继续回升，对铜而言有望短 ...

光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 05 月 13 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 昨日，A 股市场涨幅明显，Wind 全 A 上涨 1.3%，成交额 1.34 万亿元。中证 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 1000 指数上涨 1.4%，中证 500 指数上涨 1.26%，沪深 300 指数上涨 1.16%， | | | | 上证 50 指数上涨 0.69%。中美发布联合声明，为后续进一步贸易协商奠定良 | | | | 好开局，超过市场预期。近期三部门召开联合新闻发布会，央行宣布降准降 | | | | 息政策，降低企业负债端成本。金融监管总局强调将大力推动中长期资金入 | | | | 市，通过类平准基金的方式支持、稳定和活跃资本市场，具体措施包括鼓励 | | | 股指 | 保险资金加大入市力度、设立新的金融资产投资公司、支持汇金公司在必要 | 震荡 | | | 时增持股票指数基金等。证监会表示将优化主动权益类基金的收费模式，扭 | | | | 转基金公司"旱涝保收"的现象。内部政策发力是股指 2025 年的主线。财 | | | | 报方面，一季度，A ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 5 月 13 日） 一、研究观点 | 元/吨，折人民币价格 6520 元/吨，基差收窄 86 元/吨至-4 元/吨。 | | | --- | --- | | 江浙涤丝产销局部放量，平均产销估算在 110-120%。国内一套年 | | | 产 75 万吨聚酯瓶片新装置已于上周末出料，目前负荷仍在提升 | | | 中；另一年产 75 万吨装置于 4 月初停车检修，目前也在重启出料 | | | 中。5.12 华东主港地区 MEG 港口库存约 75.1 万吨附近，环比上 | | | 期减少 3.9 万吨。PX 集中检修，供应较前期明显收紧，下游 PTA | | | 检修还在继续，但聚酯开工负荷未下降，需求持续支撑价格偏强。 | | | PTA 加工差有所修复，自身检修继续，下游聚酯端高开工高库存， | | | 需求持续存在支撑，短期内 PTA 现货价格则跟随成本端偏强震 | | | 荡，后市关注 PTA 装置变动及原油市场波动。五月上半月乙二醇 | | | 外盘到货稀少，国内装置检修与重启交替，国产货增量较为有限。 | | | 供需预期修正下，五月乙二醇去库将 ...

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 5 月 1 2 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 761.0 | 756.0 | 5.0 | I05-I09 | 65.0 | 62.5 | 2.5 | | I09 | 696.0 | 693.5 | 2.5 | I09-I01 | 26.0 | 25.5 | 0.5 | | I01 | 670.0 | 668.0 | 2.0 | I01-I05 | -91.0 | -88.0 | -3.0 | 图表1：09-01合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：05-09合约价差（单位：元/吨） -50 0 50 100 150 200 09 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight, copper first declined and then rose, with LME copper up 0.73% to $9,474.5/ton and SHFE copper up 0.72% to 78,140 yuan/ton. The domestic spot import window remained open. With the market focusing on US tariff progress and the improvement expectation continuing, and the short - term boost from China - US economic and trade talks, along with the strong demand in the copper peak season since April, there is no reason to be significantly bearish on copper prices in the short - term. Copper prices are expected to reach the range of 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. However, investors should pay attention to the downstream's acceptance when copper prices enter the high - price range again and the performance of fundamentals and inventory when the peak season weakens [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina fluctuated higher, with AO2509 closing at 2,854 yuan/ton, up 4.05%. SHFE aluminum fluctuated strongly, with AL2506 closing at 19,570 yuan/ton, up 0.46%. Due to new maintenance in Shanxi and Guangxi and the acceleration of downstream stocking after the festival, alumina showed an upward correction in the short - term. In the medium - to - long - term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended. For aluminum, due to limited inventory accumulation during the festival and weakening post - festival demand, short - term narrow - range adjustments are expected [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.35% to $15,575/ton, while SHFE nickel rose 0.26% to 124,000 yuan/ton. Short - term nickel ore is relatively strong, but if domestic primary nickel continues to accumulate inventory, the pressure on nickel prices will gradually emerge [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper rose 0.73% to $9,474.5/ton, SHFE copper rose 0.72% to 78,140 yuan/ton. US three - year inflation expectations reached a nearly three - year high, and the EU plans to sue the US at the WTO. LME copper inventory increased by 300 tons to 194,275 tons, COMEX copper inventory increased by 1,899 tons to 143,987 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 2,001 tons to 19,540 tons. Copper prices are expected to reach 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton, but pay attention to downstream acceptance and inventory performance when the peak season weakens [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina AO2509 closed at 2,854 yuan/ton, up 4.05%, and SHFE aluminum AL2506 closed at 19,570 yuan/ton, up 0.46%. SMM alumina price slightly adjusted down to 2,895 yuan/ton. New maintenance in Shanxi and Guangxi and accelerated downstream stocking after the festival led to short - term upward adjustment of alumina. In the long - term, short on rallies. Aluminum inventory accumulation was limited during the festival, and post - festival demand is weak [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel fell 0.35% to $15,575/ton, SHFE nickel rose 0.26% to 124,000 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory decreased by 1,470 tons to 198,312 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 145 tons to 23,564 tons. Nickel iron prices weakened, and if domestic primary nickel accumulates inventory, it will pressure nickel prices [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On May 8, 2025, the price of flat - copper was 78,420 yuan/ton, with a decline in premium. LME registered + cancelled inventory increased by 300 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2,001 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 27,446 tons on a weekly basis [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was 16,750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. LME registered + cancelled inventory decreased by 1,550 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 50 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The Wuxi and Nanhai quotes increased, and the Nanhai - Wuxi spread decreased. LME registered + cancelled inventory decreased by 2,000 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2,752 tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased. LME registered + cancelled inventory decreased by 1,470 tons, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 145 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price decreased slightly, and the SMM 0 and 1 spot prices increased. LME inventory decreased by 750 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 793 tons [5]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price decreased, and the SMM spot price increased. SHFE inventory decreased by 340 tons, and LME inventory remained unchanged [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][8][11] - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][17][18] - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [21][23][25] - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [28][30][32] - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [34][36][38] - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [41][43][45]

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报 二、市场信息 尿素 1、郑商所数据：5 月 8 日尿素期货仓单数量 4970 张，较上一交易日持平，有效预报 511 张。 2、隆众数据：5 月 8 日尿素行业日产 19.95 万吨，较上一工作日增加 0.03 万吨，较去年同期 增加 1.93 万吨；行业开工 86.50%，较去年同期 83.19%回升 3.31 个百分点。 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 5 月 9 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周 尿素期货价格震荡走强，主力09合约收盘价1882元/吨，微幅下跌0.11%。现货 | 看涨 | | | 市场局部价格继续 涨，另有部分企业暂 对 报价。目前山东、河南公开市场价 | | | | 格均为1900元/吨，日环比持平。基本面来看，尿素日产量小幅回升至19.95万吨， | | | | 需求端有 跟进，昨日主流地区产销率分化明 ，仅个 地区 100%。近期出口消 | | | | 息扰动加强，最新消息表明后期尿素出口 松基本确定，前提 国内保供和稳价落 | | | | 实到位， ...

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 5 月 9 日） 一、研究观点 点评 8 日多晶硅先抑后扬，主力 2506 收于 36950 元/吨，日内涨幅 2.43%，持 仓增仓 4212 手至 67502 手；SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格 40500 元/吨，最 低交割品 N 型硅料价格 40500 元/吨，现货对主力升水收至 3550 元/吨。 工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2506 收于 8315 元/吨，日内跌幅 0.36%，持仓减仓 1671 手至 18.11 手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9565 元/吨，较上一交易日下 调 52 元/吨。最低交割品#553 价格降至 8450 元/吨，现货升水收至 200 元 /吨。节前贸易商清货压价，下游备货意愿低于往年。节后下游需求失速 压力仍在，短期工业硅受下游负反馈难以摆脱探底节奏，多晶硅生产调节 度较高，仓单不足添加博弈筹码，短期内大跌有限，区间震荡为主。关注 企业限产动态，以及是否新出台大规模基建或光伏装机强制考核政策，有 望引发新一轮超跌反弹。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 工业硅日报 二、日度数据监测 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The rebar futures market decreased with increased positions. Spot prices dropped, and trading volume declined. This week's production, inventory, and apparent demand data were worse than expected. Considering export challenges and rumors of crude steel production cuts, the short - term rebar futures market is expected to trade in a narrow range [1]. - Iron Ore: The main iron ore futures contract showed a weak and volatile trend. Supply decreased due to port maintenance in Australia, while demand increased with rising pig iron production. With high pig iron output, port inventories decreased. The iron ore futures price is expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to information on crude steel production cuts [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures market declined. Spot prices in some areas decreased, and market transactions were average. Supply was normal, but downstream procurement slowed down, and coal enterprise inventories increased slightly. Although demand remained stable due to high pig iron production, market participants were cautious about terminal demand. The short - term coking coal futures market is expected to be weak and volatile [1]. - Coke: The coke futures market decreased. Spot prices at ports remained unchanged. Supply was high as coke enterprises had some profits, but sales slowed down after the holiday, and inventory pressure increased slightly. Demand was good due to high blast furnace operating rates, but market confidence was weak. The short - term coke futures market is expected to be weak and volatile [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The manganese silicon futures price rebounded. After the holiday, production cuts continued, and manganese ore prices varied. The price rebound was driven by low prices and production cut news, but there is no clear trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to production changes in major producing areas [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures price strengthened. There were marginal changes in the fundamentals, with continued production cuts in major producing areas but slower than expected. Cost and demand factors limited price fluctuations. The price has limited downside but lacks upward momentum in the short term, and attention should be paid to production changes in major producing areas [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spreads: For example, the 10 - 1 spread of rebar was - 22.0, up 6.0; the 9 - 1 spread of iron ore was 25.5, down 1.5 [4]. - Basis: The basis of the 10 - contract of rebar was 148.0, up 26.0; the basis of the 09 - contract of iron ore was 103.7, up 3.5 [4]. - Spot Prices: The Shanghai rebar price was 3200.0, down 20.0; the PB powder price at Rizhao Port was 752.0, down 10.0 [4]. - Profits and Spreads: The rebar futures profit was 125.7, down 7.6; the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 139.0, up 20.0 [4]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Main Contract Prices: Included price trends of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][9][10][12][15]. - Main Contract Basis: Showed the basis trends of various commodities over different contract periods [17][18][21][23]. - Inter - period Contract Spreads: Displayed the spread trends of different contract periods for each commodity [25][28][30][33][35][36][39]. - Inter - commodity Contract Spreads: Included the spread trends between different commodities such as hot - rolled coil and rebar, rebar and iron ore, etc. [41][42][43][45]. - Rebar Profits: Presented the profit trends of rebar in different processes (futures, long - process, short - process) [46][47][49]. 3.3 Black Research Team Members - Qiu Yuecheng: Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research. With nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry, he has won many industry awards [52]. - Zhang Xiaojin: Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the coal futures field [52]. - Liu Xi: Black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [52]. - Zhang Chunjie: Black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment and futures - cash trading, and has passed the CFA Level 2 exam [53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Stock Index Futures**: The index has support both up and down, and is expected to remain volatile in the short - term. The joint press conference of three departments announced policies such as RRR and interest rate cuts, promoting the entry of long - term funds into the market, which helps stabilize market confidence and lift stock market valuations. The revenue growth rate decline of A - share listed companies has narrowed for three consecutive quarters, and net profit has rebounded, but ROE is still at the bottoming - out stage. Sino - US tariff negotiations are ongoing, and the issue is not expected to be fully resolved in the short term [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market is expected to run bearishly. The RRR and interest rate cuts have been implemented, and the bond market has priced in the expectations of weakening fundamentals and monetary policy efforts. The yield curve is expected to steepen again, with short - term bonds benefiting from the RRR and interest rate cuts and long - term bonds being relatively bearish under the background of rising risk appetite [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The central bank announced RRR and interest rate cuts to relieve the pressure on commercial bank spreads and reduce the debt - side costs of enterprises. The financial regulatory authority will promote long - term funds to enter the market, which helps stabilize market confidence and enhance the allocation value of A - share assets. The CSRC will optimize the fee model of active equity funds. The revenue growth rate decline of A - share listed companies has narrowed for three consecutive quarters, and net profit has increased by about 4% year - on - year, but ROE is still at the bottoming - out stage. Sino - US tariff negotiations are ongoing [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On the previous trading day, the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures main contracts rose by 0.26%, 0.17%, 0.16%, and 0.05% respectively. The central bank conducted 158.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with the interest rate lowered to 1.4%. The DR001 and DR007 interest rates declined. The bond market is expected to run bearishly, and the yield curve is expected to steepen [1][2]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On May 8, 2025, IH rose by 0.70%, IF by 0.82%, IC by 0.71%, and IM by 1.07%. Among stock indices, the Shanghai Composite 50 rose by 0.33%, the CSI 300 by 0.56%, the CSI 500 by 0.41%, and the CSI 1000 by 0.76% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On May 8, 2025, TS rose by 0.05%, TF by 0.17%, T by 0.19%, and TL by 0.24% [3]. 3.3 Market News - The Fed FOMC statement and Chairman Powell's press conference indicated that the interest rate decision remained unchanged for the third consecutive time this year, and Powell reiterated that the Fed did not need to rush to cut interest rates [4]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will launch high - quality projects with a total investment scale of about 3 trillion yuan this year [4]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the trends of the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock indices [6][7][10]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report includes charts of the trends, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and funding rates of treasury bond futures main contracts, as well as the yields of treasury bond cash bonds [13][15][17]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between major currencies [20][24][25].