| VA 2 SDICFULURES | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月23日 | | 铜 | ★☆☆ | 肖静 首席分析师 | | | | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 铝 | ★☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 氧化铝 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | ★☆☆ | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 铝 | な女女 | | | 镇及不锈钢 ★☆☆ | | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | | | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 锡 | 女女女 | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 碳酸锂 | 女女女 | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 工业培 | ななな | | | 多晶硅 | なな女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周一沪铜震荡收阴,晚间关注伦铜MA20日均线表现。今日现铜78325元,平水铜升水收窄到70元。周末SWM社库 减少1.63万吨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market may fluctuate weakly in the short - term due to pressure on liquidity and demand [1]. - The evolution of the Israel - Iran situation is crucial, determining the short - term direction and pricing logic of major asset classes. There is uncertainty in the short - term, and the subsequent counter - attack strength of Iran needs to be observed [1]. - Risk appetite is under short - term pressure, but the impact is limited with a stable RMB. The implied volatility of energy and the stability of offshore US dollar liquidity should be continuously tracked [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance Review - The overall commodity market rose 2.29% last week. The energy and chemical sector had a relatively large increase of 4.11%, while the agricultural products and black sectors rose 2.10% and 0.91% respectively. The precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors fell 1.76% and 0.09% respectively [1][5]. - Among specific varieties, crude oil, methanol, and short - fiber led the gains with increases of 8.82%, 5.86%, and 5.31% respectively. Gold, pulp, and silver were the top decliners with drops of 1.99%, 1.50%, and 1.44% respectively [1][5]. - The funds in the market decreased, mainly affected by the outflow of funds from precious metals [1][5]. 3.2 Market Outlook by Sector Precious Metals - International gold prices consolidated at high levels due to dovish signals from Fed officials, increased market expectations of interest rate cuts this year, a decline in the US dollar index, and continued gold purchases by global central banks. Silver showed a relatively differentiated performance, fluctuating within a range affected by manufacturing data [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - The non - ferrous metals sector fluctuated narrowly. Copper prices consolidated at high levels, supported by tight overseas inventories and continued global new energy investment, but the upward momentum slowed due to the Fed's interest rate policy and weak high - level consumption. Aluminum prices found support near the electrolytic aluminum cost line, and the market focused on power costs and inventory destocking [2]. Black Metals - Steel futures continued to rebound, driven by increased expectations of "stable growth" policies and the fermentation of Tangshan production restriction news. Iron ore prices stabilized following steel as port inventories decreased due to the Brazilian rainy season. The fifth round of coke price increases was implemented, and coking coal was more willing to follow the price increase, maintaining the resilience of the black metal industry chain, but the recovery of terminal demand still requires policy support [2]. Energy - Crude oil futures rose significantly due to the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the unexpected decline in US crude oil inventories. OPEC+ implemented production cuts well, and the market had positive expectations for the summer oil - using peak season, keeping oil prices strong in the short - term and driving the联动上涨 of fuel oil, asphalt and other varieties [3]. Chemicals - Driven by rising energy prices, the chemical sector generally strengthened. Some varieties such as methanol, PTA, and fuel oil made up for lost ground, and the inventory destocking speed accelerated due to some device overhauls and cost increases. Weak varieties such as PVC and ethylene glycol got short - term support, but the substantial recovery of the downstream has not been clear, and the market is more trading - driven [3]. Agricultural Products - The oil and oilseed sector fluctuated strongly. Although US soybean export data was weak, domestic rapeseed varieties rose supported by domestic production cuts and policy expectations, with rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil leading the gains. Corn prices were under pressure due to import substitution and declining deep - processing profitability. Pig prices fluctuated and corrected due to the off - season consumption and the pressure of slaughter, and industry confidence was still insufficient [3]. 3.3 Commodity - Related Fund Situation - Most gold ETFs had negative weekly returns, with the overall gold ETF having a - 1.86% to - 1.95% decline, and the total scale decreased by 1.06%. The trading volume of gold ETFs decreased significantly [42]. - The energy - chemical futures ETF had a positive weekly return of 5.34%, and its scale increased by 2.07%, but the trading volume decreased by 78.24% [42]. - The soybean meal futures ETF had a weekly return of 0.73%, and its scale increased slightly by 0.17%, with a small decrease in trading volume [42]. - The non - ferrous metal futures ETF had a weekly return of - 0.20%, and its scale increased by 1.19%, with a 23.67% decrease in trading volume [42]. - The silver futures (LOF) had a weekly return of - 0.99%, and its trading volume increased by 64.13% while the scale remained unchanged [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From June 16th to June 20th, the Fed's June FOMC meeting kept rates unchanged, the Middle - East geopolitical situation further escalated, the US dollar index rose weekly, stocks and bonds were weak, and commodities continued to rise. In general, commodities > bonds > stocks in terms of USD - denominated assets [3][6]. - In China, from June 16th to June 20th, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value of large - scale industries in May was lower than expected, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in May was higher than expected, and the year - on - year growth rate of urban fixed - asset investment from January to May was 3.7%, lower than expected. The year - on - year decline of national real estate development investment from January to May was 10.7%. The stock market declined, and the bond market and commodities rose. Generally, commodities > bonds > stocks [3]. - The market will focus on the Middle - East situation in the short term. The price fluctuations of related large - scale assets, especially energy prices, may increase. It is necessary to closely monitor the situation [3][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Large - scale Asset Overall Performance - **Global Stock Market**: From June 16th to June 20th, the Middle - East situation increased market risk - aversion, and most global stock markets declined. European stocks performed poorly, and emerging markets were slightly more resilient than developed markets. The VIX index fluctuated weekly [8]. - **Global Bond Market**: From June 16th to June 20th, the Fed's June FOMC meeting maintained the target range of the federal funds rate at 4.25% - 4.5%, in line with market expectations. The divergence of Fed officials' monetary policy expectations increased. Medium - and long - term US bond yields declined, and the 10 - year US bond yield fell 3BP to 4.38% weekly. The bond market fluctuated weekly. Globally, high - yield bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [13]. - **Global Foreign Exchange Market**: From June 16th to June 20th, the US macro data was generally stable, market risk - aversion increased, and the US dollar index rose weekly. Most major non - US currencies depreciated against the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate fluctuated narrowly. The US dollar index rose 0.63% weekly [14]. - **Global Commodity Market**: The escalation of the geopolitical situation supported the high - level operation of international oil prices. Precious metal prices declined, and the prices of major agricultural products and non - ferrous metals showed mixed trends [16]. 3.2 Domestic Large - scale Asset Performance - **Domestic Stock Market**: From June 16th to June 20th, the geopolitical situation continued to affect equity assets, and most major broad - based A - share indexes declined. The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased compared with the previous week. In terms of style, large - cap blue - chips were relatively more resilient. Among sectors, banks had the highest gains, while pharmaceuticals and textile and apparel underperformed. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.51% weekly [18]. - **Domestic Bond Market**: From June 16th to June 20th, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 799 billion yuan. The capital market remained stable overall. The bond market fluctuated strongly weekly. Generally, government bonds > credit bonds > corporate bonds [21]. - **Domestic Commodity Market**: The domestic commodity market rose overall. Among major commodity sectors, energy had the highest gains, while precious metals underperformed [22]. 3.3 Large - scale Asset Price Outlook - The market will continue to focus on the Middle - East situation in the short term. The price fluctuations of related large - scale assets, especially energy prices, may increase. It is necessary to closely monitor the situation [23].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the financial market faces risks of sharp fluctuations due to the escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict, and it is recommended to wait and see for precious metals [2]. - The supply risk related to Iran's energy infrastructure and the passage of the Strait of Hormuz still exists. Crude oil is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is advisable to continue to be optimistic about the allocation value of out - of - the - money call options and the spread between SC and Brent [1]. - For various commodities, different investment strategies are proposed according to their respective fundamentals and market conditions, such as holding short positions for copper, waiting and seeing for aluminum, and considering specific arbitrage strategies for casting aluminum alloy [3][4][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy and Petrochemicals - **Crude Oil**: Last week, international oil prices continued to rise. The Brent 08 contract rose 2.85%, and the SC08 contract rose 8.82%. The supply risk persists, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to be optimistic about the allocation value of out - of - the - money call options and the spread between SC and Brent [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The conflict has led to increased volatility in international oil prices, and the volatility of fuel - related futures is expected to increase. High - sulfur fuel oil has geopolitical premium support, while the demand for low - sulfur fuel oil is weak [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The Middle East conflict is still ongoing, and the international market is strong. The domestic market has some supply pressure, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly [23]. - **Bitumen**: Affected by geopolitical risks, the price of bitumen follows the trend of crude oil. The increase in production is limited, the demand is expected to be boosted, and the inventory is declining. However, the crack spread is under pressure [22]. Metals - **Copper**: Last Friday, the volatility of LME copper increased. The short position is recommended to be held, and the trading sentiment of geopolitical risks over the weekend needs to be evaluated [3]. - **Aluminum**: The low - inventory state has led to a large Back structure in Shanghai aluminum. The upward space of the spot price is limited, and attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunities after the narrowing of the monthly spread [4]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The futures price adjusted following Shanghai aluminum. Consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on AD and short on AL if the spread expands [5]. - **Alumina**: The spot trading is scarce, the price is falling, the industry profit is repaired, and the production capacity is in an oversupply state. The futures price is in a weak and volatile state, and short - selling is the main strategy [6]. - **Zinc**: The supply is expected to increase, the demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. However, due to the possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, short - term price increases should be vigilant, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel is in a downward trend, and the short position is recommended to be held [9]. - **Tin**: The price of LME tin rose, and a small number of short positions in the far - month contracts are recommended to be held [10]. - **Manganese Ore**: The price is expected to decline further, but the willingness of mines to support the price has increased. The silicon - manganese is temporarily bullish in the short term [18]. - **Silicon - Iron**: It follows the trend of silicon - manganese. The demand is okay, the supply is decreasing, and it is temporarily bullish in the short term [19]. Chemicals - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The geopolitical risk has increased the price of oil, which has a cost - side boost. The supply and demand of polyethylene change little, while the supply of polypropylene increases, and the demand is in the off - season [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is affected by the energy price increase, but the supply and demand are weak, and the price may fluctuate at a low level. The price of caustic soda is under pressure due to the weak downstream demand [28]. - **PX & PTA**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the cost is affected. The demand is weakening, and there is a risk of decline in the medium term if the geopolitical situation eases [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply is expected to decline due to the Middle East conflict. The long - position holders should pay attention to the change of the situation and consider leaving the market at high prices [30]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: They follow the raw materials. The short - fiber supply - demand situation is improving, while the bottle - chip inventory is rising, and the repair of the processing margin needs to be treated with caution [31]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The price of soybean meal is affected by the price of domestic oils and fats and the weather in the United States. The inventory of soybean meal is increasing, and attention should be paid to the weather in June - August [35]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: In the short term, pay attention to the long - short game. In the long term, a long - position strategy at low prices is recommended for vegetable oils [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The upward momentum of the rapeseed series is weak, and the short - term strategy is neutral [37]. - **Soybean No.1**: The price is rising. The remaining grain in the market is scarce, and the price is affected by the weather and the U.S. biodiesel policy [38]. - **Corn**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not obvious, and the futures price may continue to fluctuate [39]. - **Pig**: The policy aims to stabilize the price, but the supply pressure is large in the medium term, and the price may decline [40]. - **Egg**: The price may rebound, but it is not a reversal due to the release of production capacity [41]. - **Cotton**: The international and domestic cotton markets are weak due to insufficient demand. It is recommended to wait and see or buy on significant pullbacks [42]. - **Sugar**: The U.S. sugar price is in a downward trend, and the domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate [43]. - **Apple**: The market demand is decreasing, and the trading focus is on the new - season production estimate. It is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Wood**: The supply is expected to be low, the demand is in the off - season, and the price is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [45]. - **Pulp**: The supply is relatively loose, the demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see or consider buying on significant pullbacks [46]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The market price has increased, but the increase is lower than expected. The spot volume is good, and the 08 contract needs more substantial negative news to decline further [20]. - **Urea**: The agricultural demand is approaching the end of the peak season. The market is expected to fluctuate and correct in the short term [24]. - **Methanol**: The supply may be affected by the situation in the Middle East. The short - term price is strong, but there is a risk of decline in the medium term [25]. - **Styrene**: The cost - side is the main driver, the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is relatively stable [26]. - **Glass**: The production and sales in Shahe are improving, but the overall inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to operate with caution [32]. - **20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber**: The supply is increasing, the demand is warming up, and the inventory is rising. It is recommended to wait and see for RU and NR and be bullish on BR [33]. - **Soda Ash**: The inventory is accumulating, the supply is under high pressure, and the long - term strategy is to be bearish at high prices [34]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The market is in a weak and volatile state, waiting for the clarification of the Israel - Iran situation. It is recommended to allocate dividend assets and pay attention to technology - growth opportunities [47]. - **Treasury Bond**: The futures price is rising, and the short - term bullish trend is expected to continue [48].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆★ [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆★ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The international oil price continued to rise overnight and weakened after the opening today. The SC08 contract rose 1.36% intraday. The geopolitical concerns have eased slightly, but the supply risks related to Iran's energy infrastructure and the passage of the Strait of Hormuz still exist. Crude oil is still judged to be oscillating strongly, and investors can continue to hold low-cost call options. The spread between SC and Brent is expected to rise [2]. - The fuel oil futures followed the crude oil to rise and then fall. The Israel-Iran conflict has boosted the geopolitical premium of high-sulfur fuel oil. The demand for high-sulfur fuel oil is weak, and the FU cracking is weak. The supply of low-sulfur fuel oil is still abundant, and the LU cracking continues to decline [3]. - Asphalt followed the oil price to rise and then fall. The increase in asphalt production is expected to be limited. The terminal demand is expected to increase, and the inventory data continues to decline. However, the BU cracking is under pressure before the upward risk of oil price caused by geopolitical risks is lifted [4]. - The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East is still fermenting, and the international market is running strongly. The domestic chemical demand has rebounded, but the profit margin is under pressure. If the geopolitical risks are relieved, the supply pressure will bring a strong downward drive. The fundamentals still have certain loose pressure, and the disk is oscillating strongly [5]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The international oil price continued to rise overnight and weakened after the opening today, with the SC08 contract rising 1.36% intraday [2]. - Trump postponed the decision on whether to attack Iran for two weeks, and the geopolitical concerns have eased slightly [2]. - The supply risks related to Iran's energy infrastructure and the passage of the Strait of Hormuz still exist before the return to the negotiation table [2]. - Crude oil is still judged to be oscillating strongly, and investors can continue to hold low-cost call options [2]. - The spread between SC and Brent is expected to rise due to the direct impact of geopolitical risks on the supply of medium-sulfur crude oil and the support of tanker freight rates [2]. Fuel Oil & Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil futures followed the crude oil to rise and then fall [3]. - The Israel-Iran conflict has boosted the geopolitical premium of high-sulfur fuel oil, and the high-sulfur fuel oil has been supported since the conflict broke out [3]. - The demand for high-sulfur fuel oil in ship bunkering and deep processing is low, and the demand boost from summer power generation in the Middle East and North Africa is greatly reduced due to the high cracking valuation [3]. - The FU cracking is weak under the strong crude oil, and the supply of low-sulfur fuel oil is still abundant, while the demand for low-sulfur marine fuel is insufficient, and the LU cracking continues to decline [3]. Asphalt - Asphalt followed the oil price to rise and then fall [4]. - The increase in asphalt production is expected to be limited due to the consumption of crude oil quotas and the planned increase in the operation of deep processing equipment by major refineries after the maintenance peak [4]. - The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries has continued to increase month-on-month, and the cumulative year-on-year increase has turned positive. The sales volume of road rollers has increased significantly year-on-year from January to April, indicating that the terminal demand is expected to increase [4]. - As of June 19, the weekly inventory data of refineries and society has continued to decline. However, the BU cracking is under pressure before the upward risk of oil price caused by geopolitical risks is lifted [4]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East is still fermenting, and the international market is running strongly [5]. - The domestic chemical demand has rebounded, but the profit margin is under pressure due to the increase in import costs [5]. - The arrival volume in the middle of the month and the release of refinery gas have both increased. If the geopolitical risks are relieved, the supply pressure will bring a strong downward drive [5]. - The fundamentals still have certain loose pressure, and the disk is oscillating strongly under the support of strong crude oil and political risks [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★☆★ [1] - Plastic: ★☆★ [1] - Propylene: ★☆★ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - PX: ★☆★ [1] - PTA: ★☆★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - The methanol market trading sentiment is high, and the short - term main contract will maintain a strong operation, but there is a risk of a mid - term high - level decline [2]. - The urea futures main contract is expected to oscillate and decline in the short term [3]. - The polyolefin futures main contract fluctuates narrowly, and the cost - end oil price has a strong leading effect on polyethylene prices [4]. - The styrene futures main contract fluctuates narrowly, and the cost - end drives the price up, but there is supply - side pressure [6]. - The polyester market is short - term strong with potential negative factors, and there is a risk of a mid - term decline [7]. - The PVC price may oscillate at a low level in the medium - to - long term, and the caustic soda price is under high - level pressure [8]. - The glass market is driven weakly, and the soda ash market is expected to adopt a high - level short - selling strategy [9]. Summary by Product Methanol - Iran's methanol plants have large - scale shutdowns and production cuts, and the shipping safety risk in the Strait of Hormuz has increased. The port inventory is low and in a destocking cycle, and the import volume in China's coastal areas may be much lower than expected [2]. Urea - The agricultural demand is gradually coming to the end of the peak season, and downstream resistance to high - priced urea is increasing. The inventory of production enterprises has decreased, and the port inventory has increased. There are rumors about export policy adjustments [3]. Polyolefin - The domestic supply of polyethylene has decreased slightly, and there is an expected increase in some imports. The demand is mainly based on rigid needs. The cost - end oil price has a strong impact on polyethylene prices. The supply of polypropylene has increased, and the demand is in the off - season [4]. Styrene - The cost - end oil price is expected to be strong in the short term, which boosts the styrene price. The styrene operating rate has been rising, and the supply - side pressure is prominent [6]. Polyester - Affected by the decline in oil prices, PX and PTA prices have oscillated and declined. The pressure on polyester filament enterprises is not large, but the demand is weakening. The ethylene glycol supply is expected to decline, and the downstream demand is weakening. Short fiber and bottle chip follow the raw material price fluctuations [7]. Chlor - Alkali - The PVC price is strong due to the rise in energy prices caused by geopolitical conflicts. The ethylene - based profit has decreased, and the calcium carbide - based profit has increased. The caustic soda price has declined due to the downstream suppression [8]. Glass and Soda Ash - The glass in the Shahe area is running strongly, but the overall industry has high inventory and weak demand. The soda ash inventory is accumulating, and the supply is under high pressure [9].

| | 操作评级 | 2025年06月20日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | ★☆☆ | 肖静 首席分析师 | | | | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 铝 | ★☆☆ | | | 氧化铝 | なな女 | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | | | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | | | 锌 | ★☆☆ | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 错 | なな女 | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 镇及不锈钢 ★☆☆ | | | | | | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 锡 | ☆☆☆ | | | 碳酸锂 | ななな | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 工业硅 | ☆☆☆ | | | 多晶硅 | な女女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 【铜】 周五沪铜收低，主力跌回7.8万下方。今日现铜78400元，广东升水缩至90元,精废价差920 ...

| | | | Million | 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月20日 | | 棉花, | ☆☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ななな | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | ☆☆☆ | | | 天然橡胶 | ☆☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ☆☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉维持窄幅震荡。国内棉花成交一般,基差稳中偏强,中美谈判利好对于价格有所提振,但具体细节仍有待观察。纯棉 纱成交依旧偏清淡，主要淡季行情下下游需求仍旧不足，市场信心弱，看涨情绪不高。从目前中美谈判情况来看，虽然表态比 较积极，但落实到具体措施仍有较多不确定性。市场对于后期库存有偏紧的预期，截至5月底棉花商 ...

| | | | '/ V V SDIC FUTURES | | 2025年06月20日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 豆一 | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | なな女 | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ななな | | | 標 潟 海 | ななな | F3078401 Z0015853 | | | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 薬粕 | ななな | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | ななな | | | | | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | な女女 | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | な☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 豆一短暂调整之后价格止跌上涨。本周国储政策拍卖和地方储备拍卖均在进行。市场上的余粮偏少，目前靠政 策交易量在补充。进口大豆方面中期会受天气驱动,天气会成为影响价格的主要因素，并且长期趋势美国生栄 政策利多，也 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Silicon: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - The overall market is characterized by weak domestic demand, with the market sentiment remaining cautious and the demand outlook being pessimistic, which restricts the upside potential. Most varieties are expected to trade in a range, and attention should be paid to changes in terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [2][3][4][6][8] Summary by Category Steel - The steel futures market showed a slight upward trend today. The demand for thread has stabilized, while the demand for hot rolled coil has recovered. However, the terminal demand is in the off - season, and the negative feedback expectation still simmers. The overall domestic demand is weak, and the market is expected to trade in a range in the short term [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market rose slightly today. The global supply is in the peak season, and the supply pressure is expected to increase. The demand is expected to remain relatively high in the short term. The market uncertainty is high, and the price is expected to trade in a range [3] Coke - The coke price was volatile during the day. The fourth round of price cuts was partially implemented. The overall inventory decreased, and the price is expected to trade in a narrow range under the influence of inventory pressure and geopolitical factors [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price was volatile during the day. The coal mine output decreased, the spot auction market improved slightly, and the inventory continued to decline. The price is expected to trade in a narrow range [6] Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - The prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon showed a pattern of rising and then falling during the day. The fundamentals of manganese silicon improved slightly, and the price of manganese ore is expected to decline further. The demand for ferrosilicon is fair, and both are temporarily bullish in the short term [7][8]