Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bean粕: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bullish/bearish bias, indicating a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Bean oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed oil: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall trend of the agricultural products market is complex, with different products showing various price trends and facing different supply - demand situations and influencing factors such as weather, policies, and market sentiment [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean (Bean one) - Domestic soybean positions are reduced, and the downward trend slows. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans narrows, with domestic soybean prices weaker. The domestic supply of imported soybeans is abundant from May to July due to large - scale arrivals of Brazilian soybeans. The medium - term price of US soybeans is affected by weather and is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. Domestic soybeans are entering the planting season, and weather will drive price fluctuations [2] Soybean & Bean粕 - The US government's request for administrative suspension is approved. Dalian bean粕 futures rise slightly with reduced positions. Domestic bean粕 spot prices are stable, and trading is dull. The domestic soybean supply is overly loose, with high oil - mill operating rates and large crushing volumes. Demand is cautious, oil - mill bean粕 inventories are rising, and the spot basis is weakening. The bean粕 market lacks a continuous upward drive and may continue to decline in a volatile manner [3] Bean oil & Palm oil - The domestic market shows a situation of weak oil and strong粕. Palm oil positions are significantly reduced, and prices correct. The US bean oil market is worried about the impact of biodiesel small - refinery exemption policies on demand. The medium - term overseas soybean market is driven by weather, and domestic oil futures are expected to follow the US soybean market. The domestic soybean spot market faces pressure from large - scale arrivals from May to July, and the arrival of 24 - degree palm oil in May - June also increases compared to the previous period. Overseas palm oil is in the production - increasing cycle in the second and third quarters. Overall, bean and palm oil are expected to maintain a range - bound trend [4] Rapeseed meal & Rapeseed oil - The rapeseed market shows a pattern of strong粕 and weak oil, with both main - contract positions continuing to decline. The domestic rapeseed inventory is still high, but the inventory pressure is not as severe as the data shows due to unclear domestic and export proportions. Aquatic product prices are higher than last year, feed costs are down, and aquaculture profits are expected to improve, so the demand for aquatic feed is promising. The old - crop Canadian rapeseed season is ending, with good crushing and exports, and limited export availability due to tight old - crop inventories. About 70% - 80% of the new - crop Canadian rapeseed has been sown, and weather is the key variable in the next two months. The rapeseed trade is still uncertain, and the crop fundamentals are notable. A bullish view on rapeseed futures is maintained, and the pattern of strong粕 and weak oil is expected to continue [6] Corn - The main - contract corn futures reduce positions by more than 50,000 lots, and prices rise as main - force funds seek to avoid risks before the holiday. The expectation of new - season wheat production reduction weakens, and some feed enterprises start to substitute orderly. Northeast corn spot prices are flat, with a price inversion between the north and the south. The purchasing power of deep - processing enterprises is weakening, with lower operating rates and rising profits, and they have a certain amount of corn inventory. Feed enterprises have rigid demand but are highly cautious. The supply of circulating corn is increasing, and the market is expected to be volatile and slightly weak in the next stage [7] Pig - The main - contract pig futures are in narrow - range consolidation, and far - month contracts continue to rebound. Affected by policy factors, pig - breeding stocks and futures prices are relatively strong today. The far - month contracts are in a valuation - repair state. However, the industry still faces pressure from accelerated weight - reduction and early - slaughter, and there is still room for the spot price to fall. Attention should be paid to the downward pressure on the futures market from the falling spot price [8] Egg - The egg futures market rebounds with reduced positions, while the spot price drops across the country. After a continuous and rapid decline, there is a phenomenon of capital withdrawal in the short term. Short - sellers can exit to avoid risks. The slaughter of old hens has increased slightly but not significantly. With the arrival of the plum - rain season in June in the south, egg prices may continue to decline, and caution is needed when going long on peak - season contracts at low prices [9]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年05月30日 (原油) 隔夜国际油价收跌，布伦特07合约跌1.31%。受原油出口增加影响，上周美国EIA原油库存超预期下 降279.5万桶。市场已消化美国关税遇阻带来的短期情绪提振,但特朗普政府上诉后胜出并重新实 施关税的可能性依然较大，且OPEC+增产压力悬而未决，关注关税批动及供应风险明朗后的再次做 空机会。 【贵金属】 隔夜贵金属反弹，白宫方面称特朗普政府将推翻法院有关关税的裁决，正在进行的贸易谈判不会受 影响。数据方面美国周度初请失业金人数24万人高于预期和前值。近期贸易战以及地缘冲突各方处 于博弈阶段,贵金属延续震荡调整格局,金价在3000美元/盎司位置具备强支撑，维持回调买入思 (铜) 隔夜铜价继续震荡，伦铜连续三个交易日震荡收阴。LME库存仍在流出，现货升水扩至50美元以 上。围绕特朗普对等关税的司法博弈反复;美国一季度GDP受出口及消费者支出的施累大。整体周内 铜价未脱离偏窄交投区间。关注国内边际需求变化，广东升水缩至65元。社库基本持平在13.87万 吨。倾向反弹空配或主动换月。 【铝】 隔夜沪铝延续震荡。铝市需求 ...

| 国技期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年05月29日 | | 原油 | なな女 | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 文文文 | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 液化石油气 文☆☆ | | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 沥青 | なな女 | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 受美国国际贸易法院暂停特朗普部分关税生效的影响,风险资产市场情绪总体修复,SC07合约日内涨幅达2.98%。 昨日第39届OPEG+部长级会议宣布维持25-26年产量基线不变，并将根据成员国最大可持续产能制定2027年产量基 线、5月31日自愿减产8国的快速增产指引仍令市场担忧。上周API美原油库存超预期下降423.6万桶，关注今晚EIA 库存结果。原油市场短期受特朗普关税避阻影响需求预期得到提振，但特朗普政府上诉后胜出并重新实施关税 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polypropylene: Not clearly stated, but implied in the star - rating system [1] - Styrene: Not clearly stated, but implied in the star - rating system [1] - PX: Not clearly stated, but implied in the star - rating system [1] - PTA: Not clearly stated, but implied in the star - rating system [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Not clearly stated, but implied in the star - rating system [1] - Short Fiber: Not clearly stated, but implied in the star - rating system [1] - Bottle Chip: Not clearly stated, but implied in the star - rating system [1] - Methanol: Not clearly stated, but implied in the star - rating system [1] - Urea: Not clearly stated, but implied in the star - rating system [1] - PVC: One green star, representing a bearish trend with limited trading operability [1][7] - Caustic Soda: One red star, representing a bullish trend with limited trading operability [1][7] - Glass: One green star, representing a bearish trend with limited trading operability [1][8] - Soda Ash: One green star, representing a bearish trend with limited trading operability [1][8] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market shows a complex situation with different trends for various products. Some products face supply - demand imbalances, cost changes, and seasonal factors that affect their prices and market outlooks [2][3][4][5][6][7][8] Summary by Product Methanol - The methanol market is expected to be weak. Coastal olefin plant utilization has increased, but imports have led to port inventory accumulation. Coal prices are falling, and domestic production is high, with post - holiday inventory build - up expected [2] Urea - Urea futures prices are falling. Agricultural demand is scattered, and compound fertilizer production is decreasing. Exports are becoming clearer, and production enterprises have large inventory accumulations. The short - term market will be weakly volatile [3] Polyolefins - Polyolefin futures rose slightly. Macro news has boosted market sentiment, but polyethylene demand is in the off - season, and the polypropylene market is in a state of low supply and demand [4] Polyesters - The polyester industry has different trends. PX and PTA prices rebounded, but PX supply - demand is weakening. Ethylene glycol prices followed the rebound but face future pressure. Short - fiber prices rebounded, and bottle chips are in the peak season [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC prices are falling due to cost reduction and supply - demand imbalance. There is new production expected in June, and exports may weaken. Caustic soda inventory is decreasing, but demand is not strong, and prices are under pressure [7] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass prices are falling due to high inventory and upcoming rainy seasons. Soda ash prices are also falling, with inventory pressure and expected supply increase [8]

| | | | Million 国特期货 | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年05月29日 | | 棉花 | な女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | な女女 | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | なな女 | | | 20号胶 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 天然橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅下跌，国产棉现货交投一般、主流基差坚挺；纯棉纱市场成交走谈,纺企库存出现累积但仍不高,成品库存有所 增加，下游压价情况增多，淡季的压力有所增加。国内棉花进口延续偏低的情况，2025年4月进口6万吨，同比降28万吨，环比 降1.4万吨；2024/25年度9-4月累计进口86.6万吨，同比降65%。国内3 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Threaded steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The steel market shows some resilience in demand, but supply pressure remains high, and the negative feedback expectation still ferments repeatedly. The iron ore market has marginal weakening pressure in supply and demand, and the price trend is mainly volatile. The coke and coking coal markets have abundant supply and weakening downstream demand, with downward price drivers. The silicomanganese and ferrosilicon markets have weak prices despite some improvement in fundamentals [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel market has a slight rebound in the disk today. The apparent demand for threaded steel has increased slightly this week, production has decreased, and inventory has continued to decline. The supply and demand of hot-rolled steel have both increased significantly, and inventory has also continued to decline. The demand shows some resilience in the off-season, but its sustainability needs further observation. The iron production is at a relatively high level, and the supply pressure is still large. The negative feedback expectation still ferments repeatedly. The improvement in infrastructure is limited, the manufacturing industry's prosperity has slowed down, and the real estate sales recovery lacks sustainability. The US tariff issue may have a positive change, and the macro sentiment has improved. The market rebounds in the short term, but the rhythm may still be repeated. Attention should be paid to the terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore market rebounds in the disk today. The global shipment is in normal fluctuation, and it is still in a seasonally strong stage. There is still an expectation of capacity release in the second half of the year. The domestic arrival volume is expected to increase in the future, and the space for further reduction of national port inventory is relatively limited. The terminal demand enters the off-season, and the iron production gradually declines from the high level. Currently, the steel mill profitability is acceptable, and Sino-US trade is in a window period. It is expected that the short-term reduction space of iron production is relatively limited. Overall, the iron ore supply and demand have certain marginal weakening pressure, and the external trade shows signs of further relaxation. The market sentiment has improved, and the ore price trend is mainly volatile [3] Coke - The coke price continues to decline. The iron production continues to decline slightly. The first round of coke price reduction has been fully implemented, but there is still profit, so the daily coke production is still at a relatively high level this year. The overall coke inventory has increased slightly, and traders have no purchasing actions. Overall, the carbon element supply is still abundant, and the downstream iron production continues to decline slightly. The sustainability of further negative feedback needs to be observed. The coke disk is basically at par, but the cost reduction caused by the concession of coking coal will still lead to a downward shift in the coke price support [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price continues to decline. The coking coal mine production is still at a relatively high level, and individual mines have production reduction actions. The number of shut-down mines has decreased to 17. The spot auction market has weakened significantly, and the transaction price has continued to decline. The terminal inventory has continued to decline slightly. The total coking coal inventory has increased slightly month-on-month, and the production-side inventory pressure has continued to accumulate rapidly. In terms of imported Mongolian coal, in the downward market stage, downstream buyers are pressing prices and purchasing cautiously, and traders' sentiment has turned negative. The Mongolian coal transaction has continued to weaken. Overall, the carbon element supply is still abundant, and the downstream iron production continues to decline slightly. The sustainability of further negative feedback needs to be observed. The coking coal price still has a downward driving force [6] Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese price hits a new low this year. After the bidding of the leading steel mill is completed, the price rebounds. Due to the continuous production reduction recently, the weekly production data has increased slightly. It is judged that the current production level has led to a decrease in inventory, and the fundamentals have improved slightly. According to the estimated arrival data of manganese ore, about 50,000 tons of South32 Australian ore will arrive at the port at the end of this month. The iron production continues to decline slightly, and the silicomanganese supply has increased slightly. The manganese ore inventory has started to accumulate in a trending manner, the market expectation has changed, and the price is still weak [7] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price hits a new low this year. The iron production continues to decline slightly. The export demand remains at about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The magnesium metal production is basically flat, and the secondary demand remains stable at a high level. The overall demand is acceptable. The ferrosilicon supply continues to decline, the market transaction level is average, the on-balance sheet inventory has decreased slightly, and the price is still weak [8]

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | | 2025年05月29日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 息一 | 女女女 | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | 女女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | な女女 | | | 標 潟 海 | な女女 | F3078401 Z0015853 | | | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ★☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 薬油 | ★☆☆ | | | | | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | な女女 | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | な女女 | | | 鸡蛋 | な女女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆价格表现偏弱。政策端只是在进行少量的投放。国产大豆和进口大豆价差缩小,主要表现为国产大豆 价格弱于进口大豆。进口大豆方面国内供应端在5-7月表现充裕,主要是巴西大豆大量到港。中期美盘大豆价格 走势会受到天气左右,预 ...

【铝】 隔夜沪铝偏弱震荡。近期铝市库存顺畅去库至低位，强现实局面维持，不过六月需求面临季节性转 淡和贸易摩擦的考验，沪铝在前期缺口20300元关键位置仍面临阻力，考虑逢高偏空参与。 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 (原油) 隔夜国际油价小幅收涨，布伦特07合约涨1.07%。昨日第39届0PEC+部长级会议宣布维持25-26年产 量基线不变，并将根据成员国最大可持续产能制定2027年产量基线，5月31日自愿减产8国的快速增 产指引仍令市场担忧。昨日利比亚东部政府表示可能宣布油田和港口的不可抗力，尽管遭到利比亚 国家石油公司否认,相关供应风险仍对市场构成支撑。上周API美原油库存超预期下降423.6万桶, 关注今晚EIA库存结果。原油总体仍存OPEC+增产压力与供应风险并存的震荡期，关注供应风险明朗 后的再次做空机会。 【责金属】 隔夜贵金属回落。美国国际贸易法院阻止美国总统特朗普的"解放日"关税生效,裁定特朗普征收 全面关税属于越权行为。特朗普政府将提起上诉，最终结果仍有待观望。美联储会议纪要显示由于 经济不确定性加剧,失业率和通胀率上升的风险增加,决策者观望的政策立场不应改 ...

| SDIC FUTURES | | 2025年05月28日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 铜 | ★☆☆ | 肖静 首席分析师 | | 铝 | ☆☆☆ | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 氧化铝 | ★★★ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | | | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 锌 铝 | ★☆☆ なな女 | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 镇及不锈钢 ★☆☆ | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 载 | ★☆☆ | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | | | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 碳酸锂 工业硅 | なな女 なな女 | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 多晶硅 | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | な女女 | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 【铝&氧化铝】 今日沪铝震荡,现货升贴水维持。铝市需求面临李节性转淡和贸易摩擦的考验,不过库存顺畅去库至低位,强 现实局面维持，沪铝继续测试前期缺口20300元关键位置 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ (implies a clear bullish trend and suitable investment opportunities) [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ (indicates a bullish drive but limited operability on the market) [1] - Sugar: ★★★ (suggests a clear bullish trend and suitable investment opportunities) [1] - Apple: ★★★ (implies a clear bullish trend and suitable investment opportunities) [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ (shows a short - term balanced state with poor operability, suggesting waiting and seeing) [1] - Natural Rubber: ★★★ (implies a clear bullish trend and suitable investment opportunities) [1] - 20 - number Rubber: ★☆☆ (indicates a bullish drive but limited operability on the market) [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ (shows a short - term balanced state with poor operability, suggesting waiting and seeing) [1] Core Views - The market conditions of different soft commodities vary, affected by factors such as supply, demand, inventory, and international market trends. The overall market presents a complex situation, and for most commodities, the current recommended operation is to wait and see [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton maintained a narrow - range oscillation, with general trading of domestic cotton spot and firm mainstream basis. The trading volume of pure - cotton yarn decreased, and the inventory of spinning enterprises increased slightly. In April 2025, domestic cotton imports were 60,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 280,000 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 14,000 tons. From September 2024 to April 2025, the cumulative imports were 866,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 65%. As of May 15, the domestic commercial cotton inventory was 3.834 million tons, a decrease of 318,600 tons from the end of April. If Sino - US negotiations continue to improve, the expectation of tight inventory at the end of the season will increase. It is recommended to wait and see or try the bull - spread strategy of options [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar oscillated. In May, rainfall in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased, which was conducive to sugarcane acquisition, and the output of sugarcane and sugar was expected to rise significantly. Most international consulting firms expected the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2025/26 season to remain high. Zhengzhou sugar also oscillated. Due to the continuous decline of US sugar, the profit of sugar imports increased, and the import volume was expected to increase. The market's trading focus shifted to consumption and imports. Domestic sugar production was good this year, which was beneficial to sugar prices. In the first quarter, the import volume of sugar and syrup decreased significantly, which was also beneficial to the supply side. However, the downward trend of US sugar limited the upward space of Zhengzhou sugar. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price rebounded, and the mainstream spot price remained stable. In Shandong, the market shipment was slow, and merchants' purchases were cautious. The shipment speed in the wholesale market slowed down significantly. The rising temperature across the country and the listing of seasonal fruits reduced the demand for apples. The market's trading focus shifted to the output estimate of the new season. The western producing areas were affected by high temperature and strong winds during the flowering period, which might affect the fruit - setting rate and apple quality. However, the overall flower quantity was sufficient, and there were great differences in the output estimates. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, rubber RU&WRBBR fell sharply, and the spot prices of domestic natural rubber and butadiene rubber decreased. The supply of global natural rubber entered the increasing period, and the main producing areas at home and abroad were fully tapped. The operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants decreased last week, and some plants were under maintenance or running at reduced loads. The domestic tire operating rate declined slightly, the domestic market consumption was slow, the export market slowed down, and the tire inventory increased. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased to 614,500 tons, the inventory in the bonded area decreased while the general trade inventory increased. The social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber increased to 14,400 tons, and the port inventory of Chinese butadiene decreased to 28,200 tons. It is recommended to be cautious with NR and wait and see with RU&BR [6] Pulp - Today, pulp prices rose. The spot price of Shandong Yinxing was 6,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; the price of Hebei Wuzhen and Buzhen was 5,320 yuan/ton; the price of broad - leaf pulp Mingxing was 4,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan. As of May 22, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.157 million tons, a decrease of 41,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.9%. The current domestic port inventory was relatively high year - on - year, and the demand for pulp was still weak. The pulp import in April decreased month - on - month, and it was expected to continue to decline in May and June. The pulp valuation was low. It is recommended to wait and see or try to go long lightly at low prices [7] Logs - The futures price was weak, and the mainstream spot price remained stable. The ex - factory price of radiata pine decreased continuously, and foreign merchants' willingness to produce increased. After the continuous decline of foreign merchants' quotes, domestic traders were more active in taking delivery, and the domestic arrival volume increased last week. After entering the off - season, the average daily outbound volume of imports decreased to about 60,000 cubic meters. The port log inventory continued to decrease, but the main varieties for inventory reduction were North American timber and spruce, while radiata pine continued to accumulate inventory. Due to poor profits, the shipment volume of New Zealand logs would remain low, which was beneficial to the supply side. However, the domestic demand was in the off - season, and the price rebound power was insufficient. It is recommended to wait and see [8]