Report Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ★★★ (Predicted to trend upwards with good investment opportunities) [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: ★★★ (Predicted to trend upwards with good investment opportunities) [1] - **Iron Ore**: ★★★ (Predicted to trend upwards with good investment opportunities) [1] - **Coke**: ★★★ (Predicted to trend upwards with good investment opportunities) [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★★★ (Predicted to trend upwards with good investment opportunities) [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★★☆ (Predicted to trend upwards with the trend fermenting on the market) [1] - **Silicon Ferros**: ★★★ (Predicted to trend upwards with good investment opportunities) [1] Core Views - The steel market has small supply - demand contradictions, with the market sentiment being cautious, and the short - term market is expected to fluctuate within a range [2]. - The iron ore market has a relatively loose fundamental situation, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the risk of intensified high - level fluctuations [3]. - The coke and coking coal markets have abundant carbon element supply, and their prices are likely to fluctuate strongly due to market expectations of coal - related policies [4][6]. - The silicon manganese market has a fragile balance in manganese ore port inventory, and it is recommended to buy on dips [7]. - The silicon ferros market is relatively strong due to policy influence, and demand remains resilient. It is also recommended to buy on dips [8]. Summary by Category Steel - Today's steel futures market continued to fluctuate narrowly. This week, the apparent demand for thread steel rebounded, production slightly declined, and the inventory accumulation slowed. The demand for hot - rolled coils improved, production increased slightly, and inventory continued to decline, but the pressure still needs to be relieved. Steel mill profits were marginally repaired, blast furnaces gradually resumed production, and molten iron increased in the short term, but its sustainability is to be observed. From the downstream industries, real estate investment decline continued to expand, and infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth rates continued to fall. The overall domestic demand remains weak, while steel exports reached a new high in December [2]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market weakened today. On the supply side, global shipments decreased seasonally, and the phased supply peak has passed. The domestic arrival volume remained high in the short term, and port inventory continued to increase. The structural contradiction still exists but is expected to ease. On the demand side, the terminal demand in the off - season improved month - on - month, some blast furnaces that had regular maintenance before resumed production, and molten iron production increased from a low level. Steel mills' imported ore inventory increased continuously but was still at a low level, and the expectation of winter storage replenishment still exists. The sentiment in the commodity market was volatile, and the fundamental situation of iron ore was relatively loose [3]. Coke - The coke price fluctuated during the day. The coke transaction price increased sporadically, the coking profit was average, and the daily production increased slightly. The coke inventory hardly changed. Attention should be paid to whether the downstream procurement volume will increase next week, and the purchasing intention of traders was average. Overall, the carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream molten iron is likely to bottom out and rebound, and the current demand for raw materials remains at the off - season level. The steel profit level is average, and the sentiment of pressing down raw material prices is still strong. The coke futures price is at a premium, but the market has certain expectations for coal - related policies [4]. Coking Coal - The coking coal price fluctuated during the day. Yesterday, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was 1,519 trucks. The production of coking coal mines decreased slightly, and the resumption of production after the New Year's Day was good. The spot auction transactions continued to improve, and the transaction price increased slightly driven by the rising futures price. The terminal inventory increased slightly, and the total coking coal inventory increased significantly, with the production - end inventory rising sharply. Similar to coke, the carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream molten iron is likely to bottom out and rebound. The current demand for raw materials remains at the off - season level, the steel profit level is average, and the sentiment of pressing down raw material prices is still strong. The coking coal futures price is at a premium to Mongolian coal, and the market has certain expectations for coal - related policies [6]. Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price bottomed out and rebounded during the day. Driven by the futures market rebound, the spot price of manganese ore increased. There are structural problems in the current manganese ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile. The silicon manganese smelting end pursues the most cost - effective option and changes the manganese ore formula for the furnace. If the reduction of oxidized ore is large, the demand for cheaper semi - carbonate ore is likely to increase. The spot transaction prices of manganese ore increased last week. On the demand side, the molten iron production decreased seasonally. The weekly production of silicon manganese decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti - involution" [7]. Silicon Ferros - The silicon ferros price bottomed out and rebounded during the day. Affected by relevant policy documents, the price was relatively strong. The market's expectation of coal supply guarantee increased, and there were certain expectations of a decline in power costs and blue carbon prices. On the demand side, the molten iron production rebounded to a high - level range. The export demand decreased to above 20,000 tons, with a marginal impact that is not significant. The production of magnesium metal increased month - on - month, and the secondary demand increased marginally. The overall demand still has resilience. The supply of silicon ferros decreased significantly, and the inventory decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti - involution" [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias with a driving force for an upward trend but limited operability on the market [1] - Zinc: ★★★, showing a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Tin: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias with a driving force for an upward trend but limited operability on the market [1] - Lithium carbonate: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias with a driving force for an upward trend but limited operability on the market [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals, including price trends, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes, and provides corresponding investment suggestions for each metal [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - On Thursday, Shanghai copper decreased in price with reduced positions. The market digested Trump's attitude towards tariffs on key minerals, and the copper warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 13,378 tons to 162,717 tons. It is advisable to continue the previous strategy of selling call options at high positions [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum declined today. The spot premiums and discounts in East China, Central China, and Foshan decreased. The aluminum rod processing fee remained negative, and the social inventories of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased. The short - term fundamentals deviate, and speculation should be cautious. Aluminum plants can consider participating in selling hedging. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuations of Shanghai aluminum, and the market activity is low. The domestic alumina production capacity remains around 95 million tons, and the market is in significant surplus. When the spread is low, short positions can be taken on rallies [3] Zinc - LME's decision not to accept the zinc brand warehouse receipt registrations of two South Korean enterprises since April 14, 2026 triggered a short - term bullish market. However, this news did not change the global zinc supply - demand relationship. There is a need to reduce volatility in the zinc market recently. Opportunities to sell call options with a strike price of 27,000 for the near - term contract can be considered, and short positions can be taken on rallies [4] Silver and Stainless Steel - Shanghai silver is strongly oscillating, and the stainless - steel market is active. The upstream prices are starting to rebound. The market is currently dominated by policy sentiment. In the short term, downstream buyers can continue to buy at low prices [7] Tin - Shanghai tin is oscillating at a high level with reduced positions. The warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased. Although there was a landslide accident in the Alphmin mining area, the market mainly trades on sentiment. High - volatility risks should be noted, and call options with high strike prices can be sold near expiration [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate dived and then rebounded during trading. The sales strategy of upstream lithium salt factories is changing. The overall demand is resilient. The market has seen its first week of inventory increase, but the downstream inventory is decreasing rapidly. The lithium carbonate futures price is strong, but short - term uncertainties are extremely high [9] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon opened low and closed high. The market has expectations for the technological transformation of 12,500 kva furnaces. The downstream demand is weak, and it is expected to maintain an oscillating trend [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon is oscillating around 48,000 yuan per ton, and funds are continuously flowing out. The trading logic has changed, and the market sentiment has cooled significantly. Participation should be cautious [11]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Pulp: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Sugar: ★★★, showing a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is not very operable [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆, indicating the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is not very operable [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★, representing a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Natural rubber: ☆☆☆, suggesting the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is not very operable [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★★★, showing a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core Viewpoints - For all the commodities in the report (cotton, pulp, sugar, apple, timber, 20 - rubber, natural rubber, butadiene rubber), the current recommended operation is to stay on the sidelines due to various factors such as market uncertainties, demand - supply imbalances, and price fluctuations [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton prices declined today, with general spot trading and stable basis. As of December, national commercial cotton inventory was 578.47 million tons, up 110.11 million tons month - on - month and 9.96 million tons year - on - year. By January 8, the cumulative processed Xinjiang cotton was 696.9 million tons, up 63.3 million tons year - on - year. Xinjiang's cotton planting area reduction policy was implemented, with the reduction lower than expected. Spinning mills' raw material demand is resilient, but downstream orders are general. Zhengzhou cotton may continue to adjust, and it's advisable to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar prices fluctuated. Internationally, Brazil's mid - south production data in December was neutral. The current crushing season is ending, with seasonal declines in cane crushing and sugar production. Attention turns to next season's output forecast. Weather models suggest lower rainfall in Brazil's main producing areas in Q1. The sugar - alcohol ratio has dropped, and Brazil's sugar output in the 26/27 season is expected to decrease. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar prices fluctuated. Sales data was relatively positive, but sales volume decreased due to market bearish sentiment. Although Guangxi has a strong production increase expectation in the 25/26 season, the production progress is slow. If output doesn't increase later, the futures price may rise. It's recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - Futures prices are oscillating at a high level. In Gansu, merchants' purchasing enthusiasm is high, with good transactions. In Shaanxi, the mainstream price is stable. During the Spring Festival stocking period, merchants mainly package their own supplies for the market, with less purchase of farmers' apples. Some merchants are looking for high - quality apples, but the supply is limited. As of January 15, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 655.57 million tons, down 7% year - on - year, and the destocking volume was 18 million tons, up 9.9% year - on - year. The market trading logic has shifted to demand. Apples' poor quality and high purchase price may affect the destocking speed. It's advisable to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural rubber & Synthetic rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber RU, 20 - rubber NR, and butadiene rubber BR all declined. The domestic natural rubber spot price dropped, while the synthetic rubber spot price was stable. The overseas butadiene port price was stable, and Thailand's raw material market prices mostly rose. Globally, natural rubber supply is entering the reduction period, with China's production area fully stopped and Vietnam's gradually stopping. Last week, the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate increased, with some plants under maintenance. The upstream butadiene plant operating rate also rose. Last week, the domestic tire operating rate continued to decline, with the finished product inventory of Shandong tire enterprises decreasing for all - steel tires and increasing for semi - steel tires. This week, Qingdao's natural rubber total inventory increased to 56.82 million tons. Last week, China's butadiene social inventory increased to 1.51 million tons, and this week, the upstream butadiene port inventory increased to 4.46 million tons. Overall, demand is slowly recovering, natural rubber supply is decreasing, synthetic rubber supply is increasing, rubber inventory is rising, cost support is strong, and market sentiment is weak. It's recommended to wait and see [6] Pulp - Today, pulp futures prices declined. Pulp is limited by weak downstream demand, and its short - term fundamentals are average. The spot price of coniferous pulp is 5450 yuan/ton, and that of Russian coniferous pulp in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai is 5300 yuan/ton. The price of broad - leaved pulp is 4700 yuan/ton. As of January 15, 2026, the inventory of China's main pulp ports was 201.4 million tons, up 0.7 million tons from the previous period and 0.3% month - on - month. The price difference between coniferous and broad - leaved pulp is narrowing, providing some support for coniferous pulp. Overseas prices of both coniferous and broad - leaved pulp have increased. Paper mills purchase pulp for immediate needs, and the increase in base paper prices is relatively weak. It's recommended to wait and see [7] Logs - Futures prices are oscillating. The spot price in Taicang Port increased by 10 yuan to 750 yuan/cubic meter. Overseas prices decreased, and domestic spot prices are weak. The short - term arrival volume will decrease. As of January 9, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 national ports was 57,500 cubic meters, up 1.77% week - on - week. Demand has decreased seasonally but is still high year - on - year. As of January 9, the total national port log inventory was 2.69 million cubic meters, up 0.75% month - on - month. The national log inventory is relatively low, with less inventory pressure. Low inventory provides some support for prices. It's recommended to wait and see [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [2] - Fuel oil: ★★★, suggesting a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★★★, showing a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [2] - Asphalt: ★★★, meaning a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [2] Core Viewpoints - The short-term upside potential of oil prices is limited unless conflicts materialize, and the supply surplus remains the main factor restricting the upside space of oil prices [3] - Geopolitical risks will continue to support the high-sulfur fuel oil market, and the high-sulfur cracking spread may remain strong, while the fundamentals of low-sulfur fuel oil continue to be weak [4] - The impact of the Iranian situation on crude oil is significantly stronger than that on asphalt, and the upward driving force of asphalt is limited after the cost increase has been priced in [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - EIA's latest weekly data shows a surprising increase in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories [3] - Oil prices rebounded under the influence of concerns about the U.S. attack on Iran but then plunged after Trump's statement, and the short-term upside space is limited [3] - In Q1 2026, the global crude oil supply-demand structure shows significant inventory pressure, and the supply surplus restricts the upside space of oil prices [3] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Overnight, fuel oil prices rose sharply due to the escalation of the Iranian situation, and the gains were partially reversed today [4] - Geopolitical risks continue to disrupt the market, and the export disruption of Iran and the slowdown of Russian shipments may tighten the Asian supply [4] - Geopolitical risk premiums are expected to support the high-sulfur fuel oil market, and the high-sulfur cracking spread may remain strong, while the fundamentals of low-sulfur fuel oil continue to be weak [4] Asphalt - The Iranian geopolitical situation has a stronger impact on crude oil than on asphalt, and the BU cracking spread has declined from its high [5] - Kpler data predicts that the arrivals in January will still be sufficient, and the upward driving force is limited after the cost increase has been priced in [5] - Attention should be paid to the arrivals of Venezuelan crude oil in the future [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - This week, the apparent demand for rebar has recovered, production has slightly declined, and the inventory accumulation rhythm has slowed down. The demand for hot-rolled coils has improved, production has slightly increased, inventory has continued to decline, but the pressure still needs to be alleviated. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in off-season demand [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs - **Production Volume**: The total production volume of the five major varieties is 819.21 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 0.62 tons. Among them, the production volume of rebar is 190.3 tons, a decrease of 0.74 tons; wire rod is 73.49 tons, an increase of 0.58 tons; hot-rolled coils are 308.36 tons, an increase of 2.85 tons; cold-rolled coils are 88.67 tons, a decrease of 0.17 tons; medium plates are 158.39 tons, a decrease of 1.90 tons [1] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the five major varieties (factory inventory + social inventory) is 1247.01 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 6.91 tons. The factory inventory is 380.68 tons, a decrease of 8.07 tons; the social inventory is 866.33 tons, an increase of 1247.01 tons. For different varieties, the inventory changes vary [1] - **Apparent Consumption**: The total apparent consumption of the five major varieties is 826.12 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 1.16 tons. The apparent consumption of rebar is 190.34 tons, an increase of 15.38 tons; wire rod is 71.54 tons, an increase of 5.28 tons; hot-rolled coils are 314.16 tons, an increase of 5.82 tons; cold-rolled coils are 91.93 tons, an increase of 3.08 tons; medium plates are 158.15 tons, a decrease of 0.26 tons [1]

白糖:先抑后扬，关注天气风险 国投期货研究院 黄维 投资咨询号: Z0017474 MM. 国投期货 ///////////////// 25/26季度巴西继续丰产 Comment & R. B. 巴西甲南部紧计目慌产量 ► 2025年4月16日-2026年3月30012024年4月16日-2025年3月30日 百万吨 - - 2023年4月16日-2024年3月30回 2022年4月16日-2023年3月30日 700- 600 500 400 国投期货 300 200 100 8月 11月 9月 11月 11月 11月 12月 12月 11月 11月 11日 2月 6月 7月 5月 4月 数据来源: Unica · 截至2025年12月上半月，巴西中南部地区累计甘蔗入榨量为59818.6万吨，同比下降2.36%; 甘蔗ATR为138.38千 克/吨蔗，同比下降2.21%; 累计制糖比为50.91%，同比增加2.72个百分点；累计产乙醇302.75亿升，同比下降 5.37%；累计产糖量为4015.8万吨，同比增加0.86%。 · 虽然单产下降导致甘蔗入榨量减少，但是巴西中南部主产区的制糖比例较高，导致食糖产 ...

国投期货研究院 黄维 投资咨询号: Z0017474 :销售压力仍存，价格震荡向下 lling - 国投期货 2025年苹果去库较快，库存偏低 苹果主力合约收盘价 · 2025年苹果期价震荡上行。年初价格有所回落, 最低跌至6602点，随后价格一路上行，最高上 涨至9796点，涨幅为48.38%。 · 24/25季度苹果去库进度较快。销售初期，果农 销售积极性较高，以顺价走货为主，冷库出货 较为顺畅。2023、2024年苹果价格持续下跌， 市场情绪较为悲观，看空情绪较强。2024年晚 熟富士下树后，虽然库存同比下降，但是大多 数苹果从业者依然持看空的态度。 因此，在销 售初期，果农和贸易商的出货意愿较高，以顺 价走货为主, 冷库出库较快。 ●苹果主力合约收盘价 10.000 9.500 9.000 8.500 8 000 7 500 7 000 -28 2025-4-15 2025-6-3 2025-7-16 2025-8-28 2025-10-20 2025-12-2 数据来源: Wind 】》 | 苹果主力合约收盘价 · 销售初期，甘肃苹果价格同比下降较多，而苹 果质量较好，甘肃货源的性价比较高，出货较 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2025, the domestic log price in New Zealand bottomed out and rebounded, while the export log price first rose and then fell. The international market demand is poor, and the New Zealand log industry is still in a depression cycle. The domestic coniferous log market in China shows the characteristics of "weak peak season and strong off - season", with overall weak supply and demand, and the log price is in a downward cycle with limited rebound height [6][7][18]. - It is expected that in 2026, the log production in New Zealand will remain high, but the export volume to China may decrease year - on - year. The domestic log market in China will still be in a low - inventory balance stage, with the inventory and price moving in the opposite direction. The short - term log price may rebound, but the medium - and long - term price is still under downward pressure [26][30][127]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 New Zealand Log Price - **Domestic Log Price**: In 2024, the domestic log price in New Zealand dropped to the lowest in the past five years, at 129 New Zealand dollars per cubic meter. In 2025, it rebounded from 129 New Zealand dollars per cubic meter in the first quarter to 135 New Zealand dollars per cubic meter, with a growth rate of 4.65%. In the second and third quarters, the price fluctuated slightly around 134 New Zealand dollars per cubic meter [6]. - **Export Log Price**: In 2025, the export log price in New Zealand first rose to 154 New Zealand dollars per cubic meter in the first quarter and then fell to 132 New Zealand dollars per cubic meter in the second and third quarters, with a decline of 14.28% [7][14]. 3.2 New Zealand Log Export - **Export Volume**: From January to September 2025, New Zealand exported a total of 15.7 million cubic meters of logs, a year - on - year increase of 3.66%. Among them, the export volume to China was 14.16 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 3.88%. The export volume to China increased significantly in the second and third quarters, with year - on - year growth rates of 11.7% and 6.7% respectively [26]. - **Relationship between Export Volume to China and Price**: There is a strong positive relationship between the export volume of New Zealand logs to China and the export price. Historically, the export price is a leading indicator of the year - on - year growth rate of the export volume to China. It is expected that in 2026, the year - on - year export volume of New Zealand logs to China will decline [30]. 3.3 New Zealand Log Inventory - **Sawmill Inventory**: As of the end of September 2025, the domestic sawmill inventory in New Zealand was 543,000 cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.05%. Since 2020, the sawmill inventory has entered a stocking cycle, and since 2023, it has entered a destocking cycle [39]. 3.4 New Zealand Log Supply Forecast - In the short term, factors such as log price, freight, and exchange rate affect the profit of log harvesting and the willingness of planters to cut logs. In the long term, the log supply is related to the number of newly planted trees, cutting volume, and age structure. It is expected that in 2026, the log production in New Zealand will remain high, and after 2027, it will start to decline, reaching 25 million cubic meters in 2034 and then gradually rising to about 32 million cubic meters [42][43][52]. 3.5 Domestic Coniferous Log Spot Market in China - **Price Trend**: In 2025, the log futures price fluctuated downward. The "Golden Three and Silver Four" peak season demand was lower than expected, and the spot price continued to fall due to high inventory pressure. In the third quarter, the price rebounded slightly, but the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" demand was also disappointing, and the price returned to the previous low [77][82]. - **Import and Inventory**: From January to November 2025, China imported a total of 22.1533 million cubic meters of coniferous logs, a year - on - year decrease of 7.07%. The inventory was still at a low level. In the first quarter, it was at a historical low. In the second quarter, the destocking progress was slow, and the inventory increased year - on - year. In the third quarter, the inventory decreased year - on - year, but after October, it increased year - on - year due to high arrival volume [87][88]. - **Demand Characteristics**: In 2025, the domestic log demand showed the characteristics of "weak peak season and strong off - season". The peak daily average outbound volume during the "Golden Three and Silver Four" was only 71,600 cubic meters, lower than that in 2023 and 2024. The "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" demand was also lower than expected. However, the demand in the off - season from May to August was relatively strong, with the daily average outbound volume remaining around 60,000 cubic meters [95][100]. 3.6 Downstream Demand - The real estate market is still in a downturn. In 2025, the year - on - year cumulative decline in the newly started area of housing increased, indicating weak downstream demand. Although the year - on - year decline in the sales area of commercial housing has been narrowing, the real estate development investment has not improved significantly [104][107]. 3.7 Log Inventory and Price Cycle - From 2022 to 2023, the inventory and price showed a positive relationship because the industry was in an active destocking cycle with over - supply and weak demand. In 2024, the market entered a new balance stage, and the inventory and price returned to a negative relationship. In 2025, the market was still in a low - inventory balance stage, and the inventory and price should continue to move in the opposite direction [115][121].

Oil Market - The latest EIA weekly data shows an unexpected increase in US commercial crude oil inventories, indicating significant inventory pressure and a supply surplus that limits the short-term upward potential of oil prices [1] - Oil prices initially rebounded to nearly $67 per barrel due to concerns over US-Iran tensions, but retreated after President Trump indicated a wait-and-see approach regarding the situation in Iran [1] - The global crude oil supply-demand structure for Q1 2026 suggests that unless conflicts escalate, the short-term upside for oil prices is expected to be limited [1] Precious Metals - The US reported a 3% increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for November, the highest since July, and retail sales rose by 0.6%, slightly above expectations, indicating a strong economic backdrop for precious metals [2] - The geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran continue to support the overall strength of precious metals [2] Copper Market - The copper market is experiencing fluctuations, with a focus on geopolitical risks and the impact of tariffs on trade [3] - The current spot premium for copper has narrowed to $44, indicating market adjustments as traders await inventory updates [3] Aluminum Market - The aluminum market is seeing high volatility, with prices testing historical highs but facing challenges from speculative trading and high inventory levels [4] - The profit margin for aluminum production remains above 8000 yuan per ton, prompting producers to consider hedging strategies [4] Zinc Market - The zinc market is witnessing increased capital inflow, leading to heightened bullish sentiment, although high prices are negatively impacting consumption [7] - Zinc prices have recovered all losses from 2025, but there is growing pressure for a price correction, with a focus on support levels around 23,000 yuan per ton [7] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing active trading, with upstream lithium salt producers shifting sales strategies towards more spot sales [11] - Total market inventory has increased by 300 tons to 110,000 tons, while downstream inventory has decreased, indicating a mixed supply-demand dynamic [11] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market is facing weak supply and demand dynamics, with production cuts in northern regions and reduced demand from the organic silicon sector [12] - Current prices for industrial silicon are stable, but the market outlook remains cautious due to ongoing production adjustments [12] Steel Market - The steel market is showing slight price increases, but demand remains weak, particularly in the real estate sector, leading to cautious market sentiment [14] - Steel production is gradually recovering, but overall demand from downstream industries continues to decline [14] Iron Ore Market - The iron ore market is experiencing weak fluctuations, with increased domestic port inventories and a seasonal decline in demand [15] - The market sentiment is mixed, with structural imbalances persisting and expectations for continued price volatility [15] Fertilizer Market - The urea market is seeing strong price increases driven by improved factory orders and seasonal demand ahead of spring [23] - The methanol market is also showing strength due to geopolitical tensions, although signs of weakening demand are emerging [24] Agricultural Products - The soybean market is under pressure from high import volumes and increased domestic processing rates, with expectations for continued weak price movements [35] - The corn market is experiencing strong fluctuations, with low overall inventory levels and increased demand from downstream users as the Spring Festival approaches [39] Livestock Market - The live pig market is seeing upward price movements, with expectations for continued pressure on supply as the Spring Festival approaches [40] - The egg market is showing signs of strength due to reduced supply and increased demand ahead of the holiday season [41]

Group 1: Energy and Metals Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil prices' short - term upward space is limited due to supply surplus and geopolitical uncertainties [1]. - Precious metals remain strong under the influence of high US economic data and the tense Iran situation [2]. - Base metals show various trends affected by factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand fundamentals, and market sentiment [3][4][5]. Summary by Category - **Crude Oil**: EIA data shows a large increase in US commercial crude inventories. Geopolitical factors cause price fluctuations, and supply surplus restricts price increases [1]. - **Precious Metals**: High US economic data and the tense Iran situation support the strength of precious metals [2]. - **Copper**: The market focuses on geopolitical risks and the 105,000 - level of Shanghai copper's volume and position [3]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum is at a high level, with a divergence between the market and fundamentals. High - profit aluminum plants can consider selling hedging [4]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows Shanghai aluminum, with low market activity and cost - increasing pressure in some areas [5]. - **Alumina**: The domestic alumina market is in surplus, with falling costs and a bearish outlook on the spot [6]. - **Zinc**: The zinc market has high capital inflow, but high prices have a negative impact on consumption, and the price may回调 [7]. - **Lead**: Shanghai lead is affected by factors such as inventory pressure, production changes, and cost increases, with a price range of 17,000 - 17,800 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The nickel market is active, with price rebounds in the upstream. Stainless steel has increased production expectations, and short - term trading is policy - and sentiment - driven [9]. - **Tin**: Shanghai tin is rising rapidly, mainly driven by domestic trading and sentiment. High prices suppress demand, and supply is stable [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is active, with changes in the sales strategy of upstream lithium salt plants. The total inventory increases, and the price is strong but uncertain [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The market has weak supply and demand, with a stalemate in spot prices and a volatile futures market [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The price is in a range - bound state, with a downward - adjusted production forecast and a shift in the trading logic [13]. Group 2: Ferrous Metals and Building Materials Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The ferrous metals and building materials markets are affected by factors such as supply - demand balance, seasonal factors, and policy expectations, showing different trends [14][15][16]. Summary by Category - **Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The steel market is in a range - bound state, with weak domestic demand and high exports. The market is cautious, and the price may fluctuate in a range [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The price is expected to be volatile, with a risk of high - level fluctuations [15]. - **Coke**: The price is in a range - bound state, with a slight increase in production and unchanged inventory. The market expects a strong - side fluctuation [16]. - **Coking Coal**: The price is in a range - bound state, with an increase in total inventory. The market expects a strong - side fluctuation [17]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The price rebounds, with an increase in manganese ore prices and a decrease in silicon manganese production and inventory. It is recommended to buy on dips [18]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price is relatively strong, with a decrease in supply and inventory. It is recommended to buy on dips [19]. Group 3: Shipping and Energy - Related Products Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The shipping and energy - related product markets are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes, showing complex trends [20][21][22]. Summary by Category - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Airlines are reducing prices to compete for cargo, and the "rush - shipping" effect is uncertain. The 04 - contract valuation is driven by market sentiment [20]. - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil market may be supported by feed demand in the future, while the low - sulfur fuel oil market has a weak supply - demand situation [21]. - **Asphalt**: The impact of the Iran situation on asphalt is limited, and the upward driving force is weak after the price has factored in the supply reduction expectation [22]. Group 4: Chemical Products Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The chemical product markets are affected by factors such as raw material prices, supply - demand fundamentals, and policy changes, showing different trends [23][24][25]. Summary by Category - **Urea**: The price is rising strongly, with good factory sales and increasing demand. The market is expected to be strong - side volatile [23]. - **Methanol**: The futures price is strong due to geopolitical conflicts, but the demand is weakening, and the port de - stocking speed may slow down [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price is rising, with sufficient supply and high port inventory. The medium - and long - term de - stocking is difficult [25]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance, with a decrease in port inventory and good export markets [26]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The price is supported by factors such as rising oil prices, supply reduction, and stable demand [27]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC may have a chance for month - spread arbitrage in the short term and is expected to reduce capacity in the long term. Caustic soda is in a weak state, and the integrated profit may be compressed [28]. - **PX and PTA**: The price is in a range - bound state, with weak short - term upward driving force for PX and the main driving force for PTA coming from raw materials [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply is expected to increase domestically and decrease overseas, and the demand is weak. The price may be volatile in the short term and is under long - term pressure [30]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Grade Resin**: Short - fiber demand is weakening, and bottle - grade resin has a strong price. The absolute prices follow raw materials [31]. Group 5: Agricultural Products Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural product markets are affected by factors such as weather conditions, supply - demand relationships, and policy expectations, showing different trends [32][33][34]. Summary by Category - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: US soybeans are in a weak - side fluctuation, and domestic soybean imports are at a record high. The price of soybean meal may follow the weak trend of US soybeans [35]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: The price of RIN in the US is rising, which is beneficial to soybean oil. Palm oil is affected by policies in Indonesia. The overall market is expected to be range - bound [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed price is under pressure due to the US agricultural report and the expectation of China - Canada relations. It may rebound if the relations do not improve [37]. - **Domestic Soybeans**: The price is in a callback, with tight supply at the grassroots level and cautious demand [38]. - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures are in a wide - range oscillation, affected by factors such as policy - grain release and inventory [39]. - **Hogs**: The futures price is rising, but the spot price is stable. The pig price may have a low point in the first half of next year [40]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is strong, and the futures price is weak. The egg price is expected to rise in the first half of 2026, and a long - near and short - far strategy is recommended [41]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton report is positive, and the Zhengzhou cotton is in a high - level oscillation. The demand is stable in the off - season, and the price may be adjusted [42]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market has different production progress in India and Thailand. The domestic sugar price may have limited rebound due to the expected increase in production [43]. - **Apples**: The futures price is rising, and the spot market has increased cold - storage sales. The high price and poor quality may affect the de - stocking speed [44]. - **Timber**: The price is at a low level, with a decrease in supply and demand. The low inventory provides some support [45]. - **Pulp**: The futures price is stable, with weak downstream demand and high inventory. The price increase is limited [46]. Group 6: Financial Products Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The financial product markets are affected by factors such as regulatory policies, market sentiment, and economic data, showing different trends [47][48]. Summary by Category - **Stock Index**: A - shares are in a high - level oscillation, and the increase in the margin ratio for margin trading cools down the sentiment. The equity market in the Greater China region is expected to be strong - side volatile [47]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The futures price shows a differentiated trend, and the strategy of flattening the yield curve is recommended. Policy announcements may affect the market sentiment [48].