| Milli | > 国技期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年10月15日 | | 黄金 | ★☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ★☆★ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜金银在历史高位波动剧烈,短暂回调后再创历史新高。中美贸易进展有待观察,美国政府停摆谈判僵局 加剧市场不确定性,鲍威尔讲话称未来几个月缩表或接近尾声,再度提升货币宽松预期。贵金属中长期上行 逻辑稳固,重心抬升趋势将会延续。短期金银涨速过快，盘面超买迹象明显，波动风险较大,观望为主。 【星级说明】红色星级代表预判趋势性上涨,绿色星级代表预判趋势性下跌 ★☆☆ 一颗星代表偏多/空,判断趋势有上涨/下跌的驱动,但盘面可操作性不强 ★★☆ 两颗星代表持多/空,不仅判断较为明晰的上涨/下跌趋势,且行情正在盘面发酵 ★★★ 三颗星代表更加明晰的多/空趋势,且当前仍具 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **One Star (Bullish/Bearish)**: Corn, indicating a bullish trend but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - **Three Stars (Clear Bullish/Bearish)**: Soybean, Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Egg, suggesting a clear bullish or bearish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - **White Stars (Balanced)**: Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Live Pig, representing a short - term balanced state between bullish and bearish trends and poor operability on the trading floor [1] Report's Core View - The overall supply of agricultural products in the fourth quarter is generally stable, but there are uncertainties in the first quarter of next year due to factors such as trade relations and policies [3] - For different agricultural products, there are various influencing factors including supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and international trade situations, and investment strategies should be adjusted according to different product characteristics [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - Domestic soybeans are continuing to rebound. New domestic soybeans are on the market, and CGSGB is auctioning old soybeans with good transaction results at an average price of 3900 yuan/ton. Domestic soybeans are stronger than imported ones, and the price difference is widening. The export demand of US soybeans is a concern, and its price may be pressured by the demand side [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The main contract of Dalian soybean futures has a slight reduction in positions and a rebound. As of October 10, the inventory of imported soybeans in major domestic oil mills is 812 million tons, with sufficient arrivals. Domestic soybean production is expected to reach 2100 million tons. The supply in the fourth quarter is generally stable, but it may be tight in the first quarter of next year if Sino - US trade relations deteriorate. The sales progress of US soybeans is slow, and relevant policies are postponed. The domestic soybean meal futures are in a data vacuum period, and it is recommended to wait and see [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Due to the weak global crude oil price and uncertainties in Sino - US trade, risk assets are under pressure. In the international market, the near - term demand for palm oil is weak, but there is an expectation of increased biodiesel blending in the long - term. Palm oil enters the production - reduction cycle in the fourth quarter. Domestic soybean oil has a high inventory. In the long - term, oils are expected to be more resilient, and it is recommended to buy on dips after the price bottoms out [4][5] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Today, rapeseed meal is stronger than rapeseed oil, but the overall fluctuation is small, and the trend is weaker than that of competitors. There are uncertainties in Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. The data gap caused by the US government shutdown makes the market more concerned about macro factors. The price difference between rapeseed products and competitors is still high, and it is recommended to focus on cross - competitor strategies with rapeseed products as short positions. The short - term unilateral trend of rapeseed products is expected to be volatile [6] Corn - The Dalian corn futures are rebounding from the bottom. In the Huanghuai region, corn harvesting and drying are affected by rain. The new wheat planting is postponed, causing the wheat price to rise. The price of new corn in the Northeast is falling, but the scope is narrowing. The production of new - season corn in the Northeast is likely to increase. The opening price of corn in the Northeast has dropped, and the impact of the purchase price of Heilongjiang's state - owned grain depots is currently small. The bottom of the corn price is weak, but the phased bottom is approaching [7] Live Pig - The spot and futures prices of live pigs are deviating. The spot price is rebounding, supported by second - fattening in some areas, while the futures price is weak. The current spot price is in the range of 10 - 11 yuan/kg, which is at the bottom of the historical cycle. The scale of enterprise slaughter is expected to increase in October. The industry is starting to reduce production capacity, which will support the futures contracts in the second half of next year [8] Egg - The spot price of eggs is slightly rising, while the futures price is weak. The chicken - chick replenishment sentiment is poor, and the number of newly - laying hens at the end of the year is expected to decrease. The egg price is at the cash - flow balance or loss state, and the old - hen culling progress is slow. There is a risk of further price decline in the medium - term [9]

国投期货 韩泽文 期货从业号: F03108100 投资咨询号: Z0021517 5 天 日期 标的物价格 标的涨跌幅 当月IV 次月IV 2025/10/13 3.101 -0.35% 16.92% 17.65% 2025/10/14 3.1 -0.03% 17.38% 17.48% 2025/10/15 3.138 1.23% 16.01% 16.36% 【50ETF】 近1年 当月IV分位数 60.40% 63.20% 54.20% 近2年 当月IV分位数 当月合约距离到期还剩 70.70% 72.80% 64.80% 近1年 次月IV分位数 56.90% 55.60% 51.00% 近2年 次月IV分位数 71.00% 69.50% 64.40% 2025年10月15日 金融期权波动率 0% 10% 20% 30% ATM IV(M1) ATM IV(M2) ATM IV(Q1) ATM IV(Q2) ATM IV期限结构 今日 昨日 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 2022/10/13 2023/3/10 2023/8/7 2024/1/3 2024/ ...

Report Investment Ratings - Copper: Not explicitly stated, but implied positive trend [1] - Aluminum: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and good investment opportunity [1] - Alumina: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and good investment opportunity [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not explicitly rated [1] - Zinc: Not explicitly stated, but implied bearish trend [1][3] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bearish trend with low operability [1][6] - Tin: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bearish trend with low operability [1][7] - Lithium Carbonate: Not explicitly rated, but implied bearish trend [1][8] - Industrial Silicon: Not explicitly rated, expected to fluctuate [1][9] - Polysilicon: Not explicitly rated, recommended to be cautious [1][10] Core Views - The prices of different non - ferrous metals show various trends due to factors such as supply - demand relationship, macro - economic situation, and policy expectations [2][3][6] - Some metals like aluminum and copper have specific trading strategies based on their market performance and fundamental factors [2][7] Summary by Metal Copper - Shanghai copper prices rose during the day, with the spot price at 85,235 yuan. The Shanghai copper premium was 90 yuan, and the Guangdong premium was 40 yuan on the last trading day. The option portfolio strategy is continued [2] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum prices rebounded slightly, with the East China spot premium at 30 yuan. The apparent consumption of aluminum in the off - season was basically flat year - on - year. The social inventory of aluminum ingots and rods increased moderately during the National Day, and the inventory decreased in the past two days. The spot premium and discount improved. The macro - sentiment is fluctuating, and the short - term Shanghai aluminum will test the previous high resistance [2] Alumina - The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and the industry inventory continues to rise. The supply surplus is obvious, and the spot index in various regions continues to fall by about 10 yuan. The current index price is approaching the cash - loss production cut level in Shanxi and Henan [2] Zinc - On Wednesday, the LME zinc spot delivery day, the 0 - 3 month premium declined from a high level, the zinc spot export window opened, and the LME zinc inventory stopped falling and rebounded. The extreme price difference between the domestic and foreign markets converged. The fourth - quarter Shanghai zinc has strong support at 21,500 yuan/ton, but the domestic consumption peak season is weak, and the rebound momentum is insufficient. It is expected to consolidate between 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [3] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel is weakly operating, and the market trading is light. After the interest - rate cut, the long - position cashing - out tendency is prominent, and the Sino - US friction increases uncertainty. The stainless - steel fundamentals are weak, with limited downstream demand recovery in the traditional peak season, and the social inventory has stopped falling and rebounded [6] Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuated and closed up at 281,000 yuan, and the spot tin was reported at 281,700 yuan, basically at par on the last trading day. There is no new news about the resumption of Burmese ore supply, and the domestic leading production capacity that was under maintenance is gradually resuming production this month [7] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated narrowly, and the market trading was light. The Sino - US friction affects market risk preference in the short term. The overall inventory level is still high, and there may be a short - term correction risk. Technically, it is weakly operating [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures price fell slightly. In October, the production capacity in the Xinjiang production area continued to be released, and the production rate in the southern production area remained stable. Large - scale production cuts are expected to start in the southwest production area from late October to early November. The cost support is strong, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures price significantly rebounded, driven by policy - related news. However, the fundamentals lack positive factors, with the spot price narrowly fluctuating, high - price resistance in the market, and expected production increase in October. The risk of inventory accumulation is rising, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing high prices [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - The mid - term outlook for crude oil remains bearish, and attention should be paid to the impact of Sino - US talks during the APAG meeting at the end of the month on risk sentiment [2]. - Precious metals have a solid long - term upward logic, but in the short term, due to over - bought signs, it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - For most commodities, factors such as Sino - US trade frictions, supply - demand imbalances, and policy changes have significant impacts on their prices and market trends [2][3][20] Summary by Categories Metals - **Copper**: Prices fell overnight. The market expects the Fed to continue cutting interest rates this month. The previous options combination strategy is continued [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. In the short term, it will mainly fluctuate, and the upside space should be viewed with caution [5]. - **Alumina**: Supply is in obvious surplus, and it will mainly operate weakly [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. Whether the price difference with Shanghai aluminum can continue to narrow remains to be observed [7]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc inventory increased slightly. Shanghai zinc is expected to consolidate between 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [8]. - **Lead**: LME lead inventory increased, and Shanghai lead has short - term downward pressure, with support at 16,800 - 16,900 yuan/ton [9]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel operates weakly, and the center of gravity tends to move down [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight, Shanghai and LME tin prices fell. Short positions can be held against 290,000 yuan, or call options with an exercise price of 300,000 yuan for the 2511 contract can be sold [11]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price rebounded slightly, but there is a short - term callback risk [11]. - **Polysilicon**: After approaching the lower end of the range, the futures price rebounded significantly, but the upside space is still limited [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: In October, the risk of inventory accumulation is relatively high, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The overnight futures price fluctuated. It is expected to mainly fluctuate at a high level [15]. - **Coke**: The price rebounded after hitting the bottom during the day. The support near the previous low is relatively solid [16]. - **Coking Coal**: The price rebounded after hitting the bottom during the day. The support near the previous low is relatively solid [17]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price mainly fluctuated during the day. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [18]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The price mainly fluctuated during the day. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [19]. Energy - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Overnight, they followed the decline of crude oil - related varieties. High - sulfur fuel oil may face medium - term supply pressure, while low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak fundamental situation [21]. - **Asphalt**: The supply - demand remains in a tight balance. The far - month contract is more under pressure [22]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: There is a lack of positive support [23]. - **Urea**: The market demand is weak, and the supply - demand pattern is loose [24]. - **Methanol**: The main contract fell. Attention should be paid to port inventory changes and the impact of Sino - US trade disputes [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price fell. The industry valuation is low, and the impact of oil prices should be noted [25]. - **Styrene**: Some local producers cut prices, and downstream procurement is cautious [26]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The supply pressure increases, and the prices are under pressure [27]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC may fluctuate weakly, while caustic soda's downward range is expected to be limited [28]. - **PX and PTA**: The prices continued to decline. PTA's supply - demand outlook is weak [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is at the bottom of the range, and the downward resistance increases. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade relations [30]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The supply in the fourth quarter is generally stable, but there may be a supply shortage in the first quarter of next year. It is advisable to wait and see [35]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: Oils are expected to be more resilient in the long - term. It is advisable to go long after the price bottoms out [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: It is recommended to use rapeseed - related products as a short - side configuration in cross - competitor strategies. The prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [37]. - **Soybean No.1**: Domestic soybeans continued to rebound. Attention should be paid to policies and fundamentals [38]. - **Corn**: The futures price rebounded at the bottom. The bottom is approaching [39]. - **Pigs**: The futures price rebounded with reduced positions. There is upward support for next year's second - half contracts [40]. - **Eggs**: The futures price rebounded with reduced positions. The near - month contracts should be shorted, and the far - month contracts can be longed [41]. - **Cotton**: The demand for US cotton is expected to remain weak. It is advisable to wait and see [42]. - **Sugar**: The international market supply is sufficient. Attention should be paid to the weather and sugarcane growth in Guangxi [43]. - **Apples**: The futures price fluctuated at a high level. It is advisable to maintain a short - side thinking [44]. - **Timber**: The futures price continued to correct. It is advisable to wait and see [45]. - **Pulp**: The futures price rose. Attention should be paid to port inventory changes [46]. Others - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: After initially digesting the price - increase expectations, the market is expected to return to fluctuations. The focus will be on the actual implementation of price support in November [20]. - **Stock Index**: The market sentiment fluctuates between risk - aversion and optimism. The medium - term allocation should focus on the technology growth sector, but attention should be paid to possible sector rotations [47]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market will gradually enter the repair stage. The probability of a steeper yield curve increases [48].

国投期货 商品量化CTA周度跟踪 国投期货研究院 金融工程组 2025/10/14 有色板块持仓量截面分化 商品本周小幅空头占比增加,主要表现 为黑色和化工板块因子强度回落。目 前,截面偏强的板块是贵金属,截面偏 弱的是化工和黑色板块。具体来看,黄 金时序动量边际上升,但白银动量边际 转弱,截面差异逐渐缩窄。有色板块持 仓量因子边际回升,截面上的铜偏强。 黑色板块,焦煤焦炭长周期动量因子回 CTA 落,铁矿持仓量维持低位。能化板块截 面动量分化扩大,乙二醇和PTA在截面 上偏弱。农产品方面,豆油棕榈油短周 期动量因子维持低位,豆粕动量截面偏 导航。 | | 上周收益(%) | 当月收益(%) | | --- | --- | --- | | 供給 | -0.19 | -0.43 | | 語求 | -0.18 | 0.06 | | 库存 | -0.37 | -0.03 | | 价差 | 0.25 | -0.13 | | 大类累加 | -0.37 | -0.52 | 用 策略净值方面,上周供给因子走低O. 19%,需求因子走弱0.18%,库存因子下 行0.37%,价差因子走强0.25%,合成因 子下行0.37%,本 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not clearly defined [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a somewhat bearish trend with limited trading operability) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bearish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Styrene: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bearish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a somewhat bearish trend with limited trading operability) [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a somewhat bearish trend with limited trading operability) [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a somewhat bearish trend with limited trading operability) [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor trading operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - PX: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bearish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor trading operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bearish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor trading operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Glass: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bearish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor trading operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bearish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Propylene: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a somewhat bearish trend with limited trading operability) [1] Report's Core View The chemical industry is generally weak. Various chemical products are facing different challenges such as increased supply pressure, weak demand, and price declines. Each product's market situation is affected by factors like production capacity changes, downstream demand, and cost pressures [2][3][5][6][7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures prices are down. Supply pressure has increased after some major plants in Shandong resumed production, and downstream demand has not improved significantly [2]. - Plastic and polypropylene futures prices are under pressure. New polyethylene plants are planned to start production, and downstream demand for both is weak [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices continue to decline, and the market is affected by high imports and expected demand decline [3]. - Styrene futures prices are down, and downstream purchasing sentiment is not positive [3]. Polyester - PX and PTA prices are falling. PTA supply is expected to increase, and terminal demand is expected to weaken [5]. - Ethylene glycol prices are at the bottom of the range, and there is a supply - contraction expectation due to Sino - US trade tensions [5]. - Short fiber prices are down, but the spot is firm due to limited new capacity and improved downstream demand [5]. - Bottle chip production is increasing inventory, and demand is expected to weaken after the holiday [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures are volatile. The high - import and high - inventory situation has been disrupted, and further changes need to be monitored [6]. - Urea supply is high, and demand is weak. The domestic supply - demand pattern is loose, and the market is likely to remain weak [6]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC prices are likely to be weak. New production capacity is increasing supply, and trade frictions may affect exports [7]. - Caustic soda futures prices are weak. There is a regional supply difference, and the decline in futures prices is expected to be limited [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices are weak. Supply is high, and demand growth is limited [8]. - Glass prices are down. Inventory pressure is high, and the market is in a weak situation [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ [1] - Apple: ★☆★ [1] - Timber: Not rated in a clear star system in the given content - Natural Rubber: Rating not clearly defined in a standard star system in the given content - 20 - number Rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - Overall, due to various factors such as supply - demand imbalances, weather conditions, and market sentiment, most commodities in the soft - commodity market are facing different degrees of price pressure, and the recommended operation strategies are mainly to wait and see [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - The price of Zhengzhou cotton decreased slightly, and the spot price of cotton remained stable. The purchase price of new cotton was 6 - 6.3 yuan/kg, and the theoretical cost was 13500 - 14400 yuan/metric ton. The price of pure - cotton yarn was weak, and the peak season was not prosperous. Since mid - September, the continuous decline of Zhengzhou cotton has had a negative impact on the purchase price. The new - year production increase expectation is strong, and the demand is weak. Pay attention to Sino - US trade relations. Temporarily wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, the price of US sugar decreased significantly. In the international market, Brazil's sugar production will remain high, and India and Thailand are expected to increase production. The domestic Zhengzhou sugar continued to decline. The sales rhythm was fast this year, and the spot pressure was relatively light. The market focus has shifted to the next season's output estimate. The rainfall in Guangxi was good, and the sugar production is expected to be good. It is expected that the sugar price will remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. In Shaanxi, the price of early - picked Fuji remained high, and the late - maturing Fuji had poor coloring due to heavy rainfall. The price of high - quality goods in the northwest was higher than last year, and the spot market was bullish. However, the supply - side lacked positive drivers, and the storage volume of new - season Red Fuji apples was expected to increase. The cold - storage inventory might be higher than expected, and the price faced pressure. Maintain a bearish view [4] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - The prices of RU, MR, and BR continued to decline, and the market sentiment was weak. The domestic prices of natural and synthetic rubber were stable with a slight decline. The global natural rubber supply was in the high - yield period. The operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants rebounded last week. In September, China's automobile production and sales increased. The tire operating rate decreased during the National Day holiday. The inventory of full - steel tires increased, and that of semi - steel tires decreased. The inventory in Qingdao decreased. Demand is gradually recovering, supply pressure is large, spot inventory is decreasing, cost drive is weak, and trade frictions are escalating. Wait and see [5] Pulp - The pulp futures price increased. The spot price of coniferous pulp and broad - leaf pulp remained stable. As of October 10, 2025, the inventory in Chinese ports increased. The pulp supply was relatively loose, and the demand was average. Downstream paper mills continued to implement cost - reduction and efficiency - improvement strategies. Temporarily wait and see [6] Logs - The futures price continued to decline, and the spot price remained stable. In October, the price of New Zealand radiata pine increased. The domestic spot price was weak, and the import willingness of traders decreased. The demand was in the peak season, but the growth was not sustainable. The inventory was low, and the inventory pressure was small. The supply - demand situation improved, but the demand - side lacked positive factors. Wait and see [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybeans (Domestic): ★☆☆, indicating a slight bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Soybean Meal: ★★★, suggesting a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★★, implying a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★, indicating a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★☆☆, showing a slight bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★, suggesting a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Corn: ★☆☆, indicating a slight bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Live Pigs: ★★★, implying a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆, showing a slight bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core Viewpoints - Overall, the report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs. It provides insights into supply, demand, price trends, and investment strategies for each product [2][3][4] - The report suggests that while some products face supply and demand challenges, others show potential for price increases or are in a state of weak oscillation. Investors are advised to pay attention to policy changes, international trade relations, and seasonal factors [6][7][8] Summary by Product Soybeans - Domestic soybeans are in a consolidation state after a rebound. The recent auction had a 66.3%成交 rate with an average price of 3900 yuan/ton. Domestic soybeans are stronger than imported ones, and the price difference is widening. Concerns about US soybean export demand may pressure US soybean prices [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The main contract of domestic soybean meal futures decreased by 1.16% today. As of October 10, the inventory of imported soybeans in major domestic oil mills was 812 million tons, showing an increase. Domestic soybean supply in the fourth quarter is generally stable, but there may be a shortage in the first quarter of next year if Sino - US trade relations worsen. US soybean sales are slow, and relevant policies are delayed. It is advisable to wait and observe [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Both soybean oil and palm oil followed the general decline of most commodities today. However, from the perspective of the oil - meal ratio, oils are still stronger than meals. The US soybean price is expected to be pressured by weak demand. The Malaysian palm oil market has weak demand and inventory pressure, while the Indonesian market is more resilient. It is recommended to buy oils at low prices after the price bottoms out [4][5] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed futures declined today and were among the top decliners in the oil - seed sector. The macro - economic sentiment has a greater impact than the fundamentals. Domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil supply is abundant, and rapeseed is not cost - effective in the demand side. It is recommended to use rapeseed as a short - position in cross - competitor strategies. Canadian rapeseed prices are expected to be under pressure in the short term, and the domestic rapeseed market will likely oscillate weakly [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures are oscillating widely at the bottom. The new corn harvest in the northeast may lead to a price decline, but the winter wheat price increase may have an impact. The corn price is currently weak at the bottom, and a policy - based bottom is approaching [7] Live Pigs - The live pig futures market rebounded with increased positions. The decline of the spot price has slowed down, and some areas have seen a price rebound. Although the current price is at the bottom historically, there are no obvious bullish factors in the fundamentals. The industry is in the process of capacity reduction, which will support the futures contracts of the second half of next year [8] Eggs - The spot price of eggs has mixed trends, with some areas rising and others falling. The futures market shows a rebound in the near - term contracts and a decline in the far - term contracts. The mid - term egg price bottom has not been determined, and the industry needs to accelerate the elimination of old hens. It is recommended to hold a short position in the near - term contracts and a long position in the far - term contracts [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bearish bias with limited trading floor operability [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, showing a bearish tendency with poor trading floor operability [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆, representing a bearish inclination with low trading floor operability [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆, meaning a bearish bias and limited operability on the trading floor [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the fourth quarter, the bearish pressure from OPEC+ production increase and seasonal weakening of oil demand persists. The average price of Brent crude oil is expected to drop from $67 per barrel in the third quarter to $62 per barrel. A mid - term strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended, and short - term attention should be paid to the impact of the Sino - US talks at the APAC meeting at the end of the month on risk sentiment [2] - The absolute price of fuel oil is suppressed by the bearish factors of crude oil and is expected to follow a weak and volatile trend. High - sulfur fuel oil has a relatively stable short - term supply - demand structure, but its medium - term outlook is under pressure. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak fundamental situation [2] - The supply - demand of asphalt remains in a tight balance. The cracking spread rebounds as asphalt follows the decline of crude oil but with a limited drop. There is a slight inventory build - up expected at the end of 2025, and the far - month contracts are more pressured [3] - The basis of liquefied petroleum gas has been repaired. With OPEC+ production increase, the supply pressure of associated gas overseas intensifies. The actual demand in the combustion end has not significantly increased during the traditional peak season, and there is a lack of positive support [3] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - During the Asian session, international oil prices fell again, with the SC11 contract dropping 0.64% intraday. Since the second half of the year, global oil inventories have increased by 4.3%, and the inventory build - up speed has accelerated compared to the first half of the year [2] - New risk - aversion sentiments are triggered by the US government shutdown and the potential resurgence of the Sino - US trade war. Supply may be tightened periodically due to attacks on Russian energy facilities and the risk of sanctions on Russia and Iran. However, the Gaza cease - fire agreement is a new attempt at global geopolitical reconciliation [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil is suppressed by the bearish factors of crude oil and is expected to be weak and volatile [2] - High - sulfur fuel oil has a relatively stable short - term supply - demand structure because of damaged Russian refinery capacity and tightened export expectations. But its medium - term outlook is under pressure due to OPEC+ production increase and potential conflict alleviation [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak fundamental situation due to overseas supply surplus and loose domestic export quotas [2] Asphalt - The supply - demand of asphalt remains in a tight balance. The cracking spread rebounds as asphalt follows the decline of crude oil but with a limited drop [3] - There is a slight inventory build - up expected at the end of 2025. The support from the asphalt fundamentals is expected to weaken in the second half of Q4, and the far - month contracts are more pressured [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The basis has been repaired as the futures are relatively stronger than the spot. US propane exports have decreased month - on - month, and the arrival volume is at a low level [3] - Refinery inventories have slightly increased, while port inventories have declined. With OPEC+ production increase, the supply pressure of associated gas overseas intensifies [3] - The actual demand in the combustion end has not significantly increased during the traditional peak season, and there is a lack of positive support [3]