【免责声明】 国投 期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构，已具备解货投资咨询业务资格。 本报告仅供国投期货有限公司（以下简称" 本公司" ）的机构或个人客户（以下简称"客户" ）使用。本公司不会因接收人收到本报告而阅其为客户。如接收人并非国投跑货客户，请及 时退回开删除。 本报告是基于本公司认为可靠的已公开信息，但本公司不保证该等信息的准确性或完整性。本报告所载的资料、意见及推测只提供给客户作参考之用。本报告所载的资料、意见及推测仪 反映本公司于发布本报告当日的判断，本报告所指的联合期权的价格、价值可能会波动。在不同时期，本公司可发出与成张告所载资料、意见及胜测不一致的报告。客户不应视布。客户不应视本报告 为其做出投资决策的唯一因素。在任何情况下，本报告中的信息或所表述的意见并不构成时任何人放投资建议。在任何情况下，本见可不对好何人因使用本报告中的任何内容所导致的任 伺提生负任何责任, 本报告可能附带其它网站的地域超级链接，本公司不对其内容的真实性、合法性、完整性和准确性负责。本报告提供这些地址或超级链接的目的纯锌是为了客户使用方便，链接网站的 内容不拘成本报告的任何部分，客户需自行承担浏览这些网 ...

| Millio | 国投期货 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年01月27日 | | 丙烯 | なな☆ | 聚丙烯 | ☆☆☆ | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 塑料 | なな女 | 苯乙烯 | 女女女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 纯菜 | ★☆☆ | 甲醇 | ☆☆☆ | | | 尿素 | 女女女 | PVC | ☆☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | 烧碱 | 女女女 | 绅碱 | 女女女 | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 玻璃 | 女女女 | | | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | | | | | F03089068 Z0016691 | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 Z0023574 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【烯烃-聚烯烃】 丙烯期货主力合约日内震荡整理。基本面上,期货盘面表现强势,叠加局部下游补库,带动买盘积极性。丙烯 ...

| œ œ aple œ 1 | | --- | | 1 - | | A œ | | œ | | 17 | | 7 2 | | 1 | | 原油 | 女女女 | | --- | --- | | 燃料油 | ★☆★ | | 低硫燃料油 ☆☆☆ | | | 沥青 | 女女女 | 能源日报 2026年01月27日 王盈敏 中级分析师 F3066912 Z0016785 李海群 中级分析师 F03107558 Z0021515 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【原油】 当前原油市场正处地缘风险溢价与供应过剩甚本面的拉锯中。美国对伊朗制裁升级并将航母部署中东引发市场 担忧。OPEC+称预计将在2月1日的会议上维持3月原油产量稳定的计划。其中一位代表表示，目前尚无远参表费明 需要针对本月委内瑞拉和伊朗的动荡事件作出反应。另一位代表指出,尽管如此,若出现重大的供应中断，仍 可能促使OPEC+增加产量。202601全球原油市场库存压力显著，市场谨慎对待地缘犹动，供需宽松始终是压制油 份涨幅的长期因素，布伦特原油反弹至65美元/桶,WTI反弹至61美元/桶关键位置后上行动能减 ...

夜盘油价大幅反弹，Brent原油涨至接近67美元/桶，NTI接近63美元/桶。冬季风暴天气导致美国能 源基础设施和电网承压，石油生产商在上周末损失的产量最高达200万桶/日，约占全国产量的 15%。据悉Tengiz油田在2月7日之前恢复不到一半的正常产量，该油田自火灾和停电事故后恢复始 终不及预期。API库存数据显示原油去库,数据偏利多。美元指数连续走弱亦提振油价表现。意外天 气导致原油供应受限的因素迅速得到计价，然目前三大机构平衡表显示202601全球原油市场库存压 力显著，市场谨慎对待天气和地缘因素带来的短期供应犹动，供需宽松始终是压制油价上行空间的 长期因素。 【责金属】 隔夜美元指数刷新近四年新低，贵金属延续强势运行，黄金逻辑稳固，银铂兜波动风险较高。特朗 普称美国已向伊朗方向派遣了一支庞大的海军舰队，但希望最终无需动用武力。关注中东局势演绎 以及明日凌晨美联储会议指引。 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2026年01月28日 (原油) (铸造铝合金) 铸造铝合金跟随沪铝波动，市场活跃度不高。宏观驱动且价格处于高位，铸造铝合金与沪铝价差季 节性表现将持续弱于往年。 ...

(原油) 隔夜夜盘铜价震荡调整，但美盘铜尾盘随贵金属收回跌势。昨日美伦价差盘中反转，LME现货贴水扩 至93美元。贵金属短线波动大，市场焦点转向地缘、美国政府月底"停摆"、甚至美国内部冲突风 险。关注短期均线位置强弱,延续铜价高位震荡且倾向调整的看法。 【铝】 夜盘油价大幅反弹，Brent原油涨至接近67美元/桶，NTI接近63美元/桶。冬季风暴天气导致美国能 源基础设施和电网承压，石油生产商在上周末损失的产量最高达200万桶/日，约占全国产量的 15%。据悉Tengiz油田在2月7日之前恢复不到一半的正常产量，该油田自火灾和停电事故后恢复始 终不及预期。API库存数据显示原油去库,数据偏利多。美元指数连续走弱亦提振油价表现。意外天 气导致原油供应受限的因素迅速得到计价，然目前三大机构平衡表显示202601全球原油市场库存压 力显著，市场谨慎对待天气和地缘因素带来的短期供应犹动，供需宽松始终是压制油价上行空间的 长期因素。 【责金属】 隔夜美元指数刷新近四年新低，贵金属延续强势运行，黄金逻辑稳固，银铂兜波动风险较高。特朗 普称美国已向伊朗方向派遣了一支庞大的海军舰队，但希望最终无需动用武力。关注中东局势演绎 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current crude oil market is in a tug - of - war between geopolitical risk premiums and a supply - surplus fundamental situation, and the overall commodity market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical events, supply and demand changes, and policy expectations, showing different trends in different sectors [2] Summary by Relevant Categories Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US sanctions against Iran and the deployment of aircraft carriers in the Middle East have raised market concerns, but the supply - demand surplus remains a long - term factor suppressing oil prices. OPEC + plans to keep March production stable in February, and attention should be paid to whether the Iran conflict will actually affect oil supply. Brent crude has rebounded to $65/barrel and WTI to $61/barrel [2] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver broke through the $5000/ounce and $100/ounce integer thresholds respectively, but there is a risk of capital turning. It is advisable to wait for the volatility to decline before participating, and pay attention to the Fed meeting, Middle East situation, and the risk of the US government shutting down [3] - **Base Metals (Copper, Aluminum, etc.)**: The copper price is affected by precious metal trading sentiment and the weakening of the US dollar, and is expected to oscillate at high levels and tend to adjust; the aluminum price is affected by geopolitical events, and the high - level oscillation range needs to determine the direction; the zinc price is supported by cost but restricted by consumption, and is expected to oscillate between 24,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton; the lead price is also affected by cost and consumption, and is expected to oscillate at a low level between 16,800 - 17,300 yuan/ton [4][5][8] - **Lithium and Related Products**: The price of lithium carbonate has fallen after a high opening, and the inventory reduction speed has slowed down. The futures price is in high - level oscillation, with high short - term uncertainty; the price of polycrystalline silicon is still weak, and the market is expected to continue to oscillate [12][13] - **Industrial Silicon**: Driven by production reduction expectations, the price has risen to 9000 yuan/ton, but the increase has retracted. The downstream support is weak, and it is expected to enter a destocking pattern in February, but the destocking range is limited [14] - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel prices oscillate, with the rebar's apparent demand declining and inventory accumulating, while the hot - rolled coil's demand and production both slightly decline, and the inventory continues to decrease. The iron ore's supply is relatively loose, but considering the replenishment demand and positive market sentiment, the price is expected to continue to oscillate [15][16] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke are oscillating strongly. The first - round price increase of coke has been shelved, and the supply of carbon elements is abundant. The downstream is in the off - season, and the prices are expected to oscillate within a range [17][18] - **Other Metals (Manganese, Silicon, etc.)**: The prices of manganese ore and silicon - manganese are affected by supply - demand and policy expectations. The silicon - iron price is affected by cost and demand, and the supply and demand are relatively stable [19][20] - **Shipping and Fuel Oil**: The SCFIS (European route) index has declined, and the spot freight rate is in a downward channel. The fuel oil is supported by geopolitical factors in the short term and is expected to follow the upward trend of crude oil in the medium term [21][22] - **Other Chemicals (Asphalt, Urea, etc.)**: The asphalt is supported by cost but has weak terminal demand, and is expected to oscillate strongly; the urea price oscillates within a range; the methanol price is expected to be strong in the short term and gradually destock in the long term; the pure benzene price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term and gradually destock in the long term [23][24][25] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Related Products**: The short - term market has digested the expectation of a South American soybean harvest. The Brazilian soybean harvest progress is slow, and attention should be paid to the subsequent harvest situation. The import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal may impact the domestic soybean meal price. The soybean oil and palm oil are affected by policies and market sentiment [36][37] - **Rapeseed and Related Products**: The uncertainty of the rapeseed market lies in the import end. The import of Australian rapeseed and the US - Canada trade friction need attention. The price of rapeseed products is expected to oscillate strongly, with rapeseed oil slightly stronger than rapeseed meal [38] - **Other Agricultural Products (Corn, Cotton, etc.)**: The corn price is relatively strong due to reduced available grain sources and pre - holiday replenishment demand; the cotton price is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to wait and see; the sugar price is under pressure in the short term, and attention should be paid to the production situation; the apple price oscillates, and attention should be paid to the future demand [40][43][44] Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The A - share market has adjusted, and the index is transitioning from a rapid upward trend to a strong - oscillation pattern. Attention should be paid to geopolitical situations, regulatory attitudes, and the Fed's interest - rate decision [48] - **Treasury Bonds**: The treasury bond futures show a differentiated performance, with the 30 - year bond continuing to rise and the rest slightly adjusting. The curve flattens, and attention should be paid to the opportunities of steepening and flattening the spreads [49]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The current financial market is influenced by multiple factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand fundamentals, and policy changes. Different industries present various trends, with most markets expected to show oscillatory movements, and investors need to closely monitor relevant events and data [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market is in a tug - of - war between geopolitical risk premiums and a supply - surplus fundamental. OPEC+ may maintain stable production in March, but major supply disruptions could prompt an output increase. High inventory pressure in Q1 2026 is a long - term factor suppressing price increases. Brent crude has rebounded to $65/barrel, and WTI to $61/barrel. Attention should be paid to whether the Iran conflict will threaten actual supply [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals fluctuated violently, with gold and silver breaking through key integer thresholds. It is advisable to wait for volatility to decline before participating. Focus on the Fed meeting, Middle East situation, and the risk of the US government shutdown [3]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Overnight, US copper prices declined at the end of the session. The market may focus on the US government shutdown and Trump's tariff threats. Copper prices are likely to remain in a high - level oscillation and tend to adjust [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to oscillate. Geopolitical events have increased market volatility, and attention should be paid to whether it can break through the high - level oscillation range [5]. - **Other Metals**: Each metal has its own supply - demand characteristics. For example, zinc has strong cost support but weak consumption; lead has a cost - consumption game; nickel has high - level oscillation and market caution; tin has increasing supply pressure; and lithium carbonate has high - level oscillation and high short - term uncertainty [8][9][10]. - **New Energy - Related Materials**: - **Polysilicon**: The spot market is sluggish, with inventory pressure rising. The "rush - to - export" has not effectively boosted procurement. The market is expected to continue oscillating [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It was boosted by production - cut expectations but has seen a retracement in gains. Supply is decreasing, but demand is weak in various sectors, and inventory is slightly increasing. It is expected to enter a de - stocking phase in February, but the de - stocking amplitude is limited [14]. - **Building Materials and Fuels**: - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical factors support the market in the short term. High - sulfur supply has increased, and low - sulfur supply tightness has eased. The market is expected to follow crude oil and show a strong trend [22]. - **Asphalt**: It has been in an oscillatory range since early January. Cost provides support, but terminal demand is weak, and it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [23]. - **Urea**: The futures market is oscillating firmly, and the spot price is diverging. Supply pressure remains, and the market will continue to fluctuate within a range [24]. - **Methanol**: Due to the tense Iran situation, the market rose significantly. Overseas device operation is at a low level, and port inventory has slightly increased. It is expected to operate strongly in the short term and gradually de - stock in the long term [25]. - **Other Chemicals**: Each chemical product has its own supply - demand and price trends. For example, pure benzene is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term and de - stock in the long term; styrene has cost support but short - term price pressure; and polypropylene, plastic, and propylene have complex supply - demand situations [26][27][28]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The market has digested the South American harvest expectations. Brazilian soybean harvesting is slow, and Chinese soybean procurement is progressing. The market may bottom - oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to Brazilian harvest and Canadian rapeseed imports [36]. - **Vegetable Oils**: Malaysian palm oil supply - demand has improved marginally, and US soybean oil policies are favorable. The market is affected by policies and macro - inflation trading [37]. - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: The import situation of rapeseed is uncertain. The supply - demand difference between rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal is conducive to the increase of the oil - meal ratio, and the market is expected to oscillate strongly [38]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: - **Pigs**: The spot price is weak, and the futures price has declined. The industry will face accelerated slaughter before the Spring Festival, and pig prices may reach a low point in the first half of next year [41]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is strong due to supply reduction and pre - festival demand. The futures near - month contract is strong, and the far - month contract is weak. In the short term, observe whether the spot price can remain strong, and in the long term, consider going long on the first - half - year contracts at low prices [42]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: - **Cotton**: US cotton is at the bottom, and Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating at a high level. Demand is stable in the off - season, and the market may continue to oscillate [43]. - **Sugar**: International sugar production varies by country. In China, the market focuses on production differences, and short - term prices face pressure [44]. - **Apples**: The futures price is oscillating. Spot trading has increased for pre - festival stocking, and attention should be paid to the impact of quality and sentiment on inventory reduction [45]. - **Wood and Pulp**: Wood prices are low, with low inventory providing support. Pulp demand is weak, and the short - term fundamentals are general [46][47]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: A - shares adjusted yesterday, and the market is affected by geopolitical situations, regulatory attitudes, and the Fed's decisions. The index is expected to change from a rapid rise to an oscillatory - strong trend [48]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On January 26, 2026, treasury bond futures showed a differentiated performance. The 30 - year bond continued to rise, and the curve flattened. Strategies include paying attention to TS - T steepening and T - TL flattening opportunities [49].

操作评级 | 原油 | ☆☆☆ | | --- | --- | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | | 低硫燃料油 ☆☆☆ | | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | 能源日报 2026年01月26日 王盈敏 中级分析师 F3066912 Z0016785 李海群 中级分析师 F03107558 Z0021515 010-58747784 今日燃料油市场因地缘风险溢价交易而全线走强,尤其高硫燃料油受供应中断担忧支撑,涨幅显著。短期地缘 因素将持续支撑高硫表现。而从实际供应看。1月中东及俄罗斯对亚太到港量有所提升,一定程度上填补了委内 瑞拉原料分流的缺口。且随着委内瑞拉重油转向美国,美湾高硫产量增加,若套利窗口打开,后续可能对亚洲 市场形成传导压力。低硫燃料油方面,新加坡地区供应此前略显紧张,但上周末现货结构已由升水转为贴水, 显示紧张态势有所缓解。柴油裂解价差走强从组分端传导支撑，带动低硫裂解价差同步走强。中期来看，供应 端主要驱动在于海外炼厂装置开工变化：科威特出口逐步上行,而尼日利亚丹格特族厂RFCC装置回归推迟，供 应整体呈现小幅增加趋势。展望后续，燃料油预计将跟随原油延续偏强走势。 【沥青】自1月初美委冲突导致沥青元旦 ...

| | | | VY V SDIC FUIURES | | 2026年01月26日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆一 | な☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | ななな | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | な☆☆ | | | | | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕櫚油 | ななな | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ★☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | ★★☆ | | | | | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | な女女 | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猎 | ★☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆主力合约价格表现偏强,并伴随增仓。国产大豆现货市场偏平稳,农户手中余粮偏少,市场供应偏 紧,不过近期政策拍卖成交情况拍好,短期给市场带来边际供应的改善。随着节日的临近,需求方面市场预计 也存在边际改善的概率。 ...

丙烯期货主力合约日内上行收涨。基本面上,市场供应无明显压力,生产企业报盘小幅调整,实单竞拍溢价情 况减少。下游工厂观望情绪加重，刚需择低采购为主。 塑料和聚丙烯期货主力合约日内上行收涨，但基本面支撑有限。聚乙烯方面,随着新装置投产以及检修装置陆 续重启,市场供应压力将会增加。而需求端来看,随着年末的临近,需求呈现城弱趋势,工厂的补货意向降 低。聚丙烯方面,近期PP停车装置有所增加,同时多数企业积极预售,市场目前现货整体供应压力不大、部分 市场仍存在货源结构性偏紧态势,供应端对市场有所支撑。下游部分领域表现出新单跟进不足,成品库存有累 积现象,且北方部分小型企业开始进入假期,需求整体偏弱。 【聚酯】 | 《八》国投期货 | | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年01月26日 | | 丙烯 | ★☆☆ | 塑料 | ★☆★ | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 聚丙烯 | ★☆☆ | 纯菜 | ★☆★ | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 苯乙烯 | なな女 | РХ | ★☆★ | | | PTA | ★☆☆ | 乙 ...