| | 操作评级 | 2025年07月25日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 显一 | ☆☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆油 | ☆☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | | | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 棕櫚油 | な女女 | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 豆粕 | ☆☆☆ | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ☆☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | な女女 | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | な女女 | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ななな | | | 鸡蛋 | な☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今日大连豆粕期货继续震荡下行。中美双方将于下周在瑞典斯德哥尔摩会面，第三轮会谈可能会有结果，结束关税战。天气上 未来两周，美豆主产区降雨略高于常值。温度上中部和东南部地区预计将出现连续几天的高温天气、而后再经历一个降温过 程，为新季美豆带来了些许不确定性。目前中美贸易上的不确定性因素依旧较多，目前已进入天气交易时间窗口， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a bias towards a short - term trend, with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Aluminum: It has different ratings in the table, but generally the market situation is complex, and ratings seem inconsistent in the given table [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆, suggesting a bias towards a short - term trend, with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Zinc: The rating in the table is not clearly interpretable, but the market is cautious and the overall suggestion is for a short - selling strategy [1][4] - Tin: ★☆☆, indicating a bias towards a short - term trend, with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Carbonate Lithium: The rating in the table is not clearly interpretable, but the short - term trading strategy is to buy on dips [1][9] - Industrial Silicon: The rating is not clearly interpretable, and the price is expected to be volatile [1][10] - Polysilicon: The rating is not clearly interpretable, and short - selling is not recommended [1][11] 2. Core Views - The "anti - involution" theme in the industrial products market has made the trading sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market cautious, and the market is affected by both macro factors and fundamental supply - demand relationships [2][4] - Each non - ferrous metal has its own supply - demand situation and price trends, and investors should make corresponding trading decisions based on different metal characteristics [2][3][4] 3. Summaries by Metal Copper - On Friday, Shanghai copper closed with a negative trend. The current copper price is 79,450 yuan, and the Shanghai premium is 125 yuan. The trading sentiment is cautious, and it is believed that there is strong resistance at the integer level above the copper price. With the strong service PMI in the US and Europe and the change in German manufacturing momentum, the US manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.5 in July. It is recommended to hold short positions with a light position [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum has a narrow - range fluctuation, and the East China spot premium is 10 yuan. The aluminum ingot social inventory has been gradually increasing, and the demand has declined but not exceeded the seasonal level. Shanghai aluminum is in a short - term high - level shock, with resistance at 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum, with weak demand but tight scrap aluminum supply and negative industry profits, which is more supportive compared to the aluminum price. Alumina rose and then fell, with high - level fluctuations. The northern spot transaction this week was close to 3,300 yuan, and the warehouse receipt inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is extremely low. After the futures premium, it will attract the inflow of warehouse receipts. The alumina industry has a low proportion of old - fashioned production capacity, and the current operating capacity is in a relatively over - supplied state. Be vigilant against the callback risk after the price rise driven by policy expectations [3] Zinc - The market sentiment is volatile due to the difficult - to - distinguish true and false news around the "anti - involution" theme. The zinc market funds are cautious, and long - position holders are reducing their positions at high levels. The 23,000 - yuan integer level of Shanghai zinc is under pressure, and the weighted position has dropped to 233,000 lots. After the fermentation of macro and capital emotions, the market will return to the fundamental logic. The supply of zinc ore has increased as expected, new smelter production capacity has been put into operation, and the supply is expected to increase, while the consumption has not improved significantly. The general direction is to short on rebounds. In the third quarter, the policy is relatively optimistic, and the high - level range of Shanghai zinc is expected to be between 23,500 - 24,000 yuan/ton. Wait patiently for short - selling opportunities [4] Lead - The lead price is at a low level. Recycled lead holders are reluctant to sell, and the SMM refined - scrap lead price is the same. The average price of 1 lead has a real - time discount of 135 yuan/ton to the 08 contract. Downstream buyers prefer to purchase low - price factory - picked lead from smelters and primary lead. The SMM lead inventory has slowly increased to 71,400 tons. The spot import window is closed, the raw material supply is tight, and with cost support, Shanghai lead seems to have limited room to fall. The peak - season demand is slow to materialize, affected by tariffs and pre - consumption. However, funds are gradually increasing their positions, and the funds deposited in Shanghai lead are 1.6 billion yuan. Be vigilant against the unilateral market after the end of fund accumulation. Try to go long with a light position on dips, and hold long positions with a stop - loss at 16,800 yuan/ton [6] Nickel & Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel has risen in a volatile manner, and the market trading is active. Under the guidance of the "anti - involution" theme, certain trading strategies are targeting short - crowded varieties. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2,000 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 350 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel is 100 yuan. The price support from the upstream has significantly weakened recently. In terms of inventory, the nickel - iron inventory has decreased by 4,300 tons to 33,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory has increased by 1,000 tons to 40,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory has decreased by 8,000 tons to 983,000 tons, but the overall inventory level is still high. Shanghai nickel is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level [7] Tin - Shanghai tin has reduced its positions and recovered the decline below 270,000 yuan. Overnight, LME tin encountered resistance and closed with a negative trend below $35,000. Above 270,000 yuan, Shanghai tin is at a relatively high level. This week, the low LME inventory and the expanding spot premium have driven the price increase. The market is also concerned about the flood situation in the Wa State of Myanmar and the annual maintenance time of leading enterprises. The medium - to - long - term trend is not optimistic, and holders of short positions at the previous high level can appropriately reduce their positions for risk control [8] Carbonate Lithium - The carbonate lithium futures price has reached the daily limit, and the market trading is active. A large amount of hot money has flowed into the market. The main contradiction in the market is the large number of short - hedging and investment positions concentrated around 77,000 yuan, which will face serious stop - loss pressure. The total market inventory has continued to rise to the recent high of 143,000 tons, the smelter inventory has decreased by 600 tons to 58,000 tons, the downstream inventory has slightly increased by 500 tons to 41,000 tons, and traders have continued to replenish their stocks by 1,880 tons to 43,000 tons. Traders have a positive attitude, and the spot bottom - fishing sentiment continues. The latest price of Australian ore is $760, with a large rebound from the low level. The short - term trading strategy is to buy on dips [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures have slightly increased. The price of East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon has remained stable at 10,100 yuan/ton, and the SMM weekly social inventory has continued to decrease by 12,000 tons. However, the current fundamental factors have become secondary, and the "anti - involution" logic is the main driving force. After the price rebound, there are some differences in the market sentiment, and there are many policy - related news disturbances. It is expected that the industrial silicon price will fluctuate, and attention should be paid to position control [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon has risen and then fallen, with a slight decline. In the spot market, the price of N - type re -投料 has increased by 500 yuan/ton to 46,500 yuan/ton. Driven by the industry response, the upward trend of the spot price may not end. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 240 lots yesterday, and there is an expectation of further increase. High prices are also likely to trigger changes in trading rules. Without greater - scale capacity policies, the price trend may change from a sharp and rapid increase to a slow increase, but the policy uncertainty is large. Short - selling is not recommended. If following the current trend, pay attention to the risk of the price rising and then falling back during the day, and control the position well [11]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年07月25日 (原油) 三季度旺季以来石油市场延续了上半年的累库趋势,其中原油去库0.6%、成品油累库1.7%， OPEC+增产路径下石油市场的供需盈余压力始终存在。7月原油市场进入伊以冲突剧烈波动后的震荡 修复期,近期月差、现货升贴水转弱,海外柴油裂解在东西套利窗口打开后亦有所回落,此前支撑 市场的旺季强现实因素转弱。尽管美日协议以利好落地,美国与欧盟、中国的贸易战风险仍令市场 面临需求预期冲击，近期相关利空风险大于地缘端利多，油价以震荡承压为主；8月底、9月初伊 核、俄乌协议面临欧美施压的最后期限,届时地缘犹动有望再度为市场带来支撑。 【责金属】 隔夜美国7月标普全球制造业PMI初值49.5不及预期但服务业PM155.2表现偏强,周度初请失业金人 数21.7万人维持低位,经济数据体现韧性。美国与多个国家关税协议有望陆续达成,截止日前市场 不确定性仍存，但超预期对抗的概率在下降,贵金属宽幅震荡为主。 【铜】 隔夜伦铜收跌，与多数工业品相比,近期铜市场情绪偏谨慎,倾向铜价上方整数关阻力大。美欧服 务业PM1强劲，德国制造业动能转折， ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年07月25日 (原油) 三季度旺季以来石油市场延续了上半年的累库趋势,其中原油去库0.6%、成品油累库1.7%， OPEC+增产路径下石油市场的供需盈余压力始终存在。7月原油市场进入伊以冲突剧烈波动后的震荡 修复期,近期月差、现货升贴水转弱,海外柴油裂解在东西套利窗口打开后亦有所回落,此前支撑 市场的旺季强现实因素转弱。尽管美日协议以利好落地,美国与欧盟、中国的贸易战风险仍令市场 面临需求预期冲击，近期相关利空风险大于地缘端利多，油价以震荡承压为主；8月底、9月初伊 核、俄乌协议面临欧美施压的最后期限,届时地缘犹动有望再度为市场带来支撑。 【责金属】 隔夜美国7月标普全球制造业PMI初值49.5不及预期但服务业PM155.2表现偏强,周度初请失业金人 数21.7万人维持低位,经济数据体现韧性。美国与多个国家关税协议有望陆续达成,截止日前市场 不确定性仍存，但超预期对抗的概率在下降,贵金属宽幅震荡为主。 【铜】 隔夜伦铜收跌，与多数工业品相比,近期铜市场情绪偏谨慎,倾向铜价上方整数关阻力大。美欧服 务业PM1强劲，德国制造业动能转折， ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The steel market is overall strong with cost support, but domestic demand is weak and attention should be paid to policy changes [1]. - Iron ore follows the strong trend of the black - series, but the price is high and there is a risk of increased volatility [2]. - Coke and coking coal may maintain an upward trend in the short - term, and the impact of "anti - involution" needs policy attention [3][5]. - Silicomanganese and ferrosilicon follow the thread trend, with relatively small price increases [6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market strengthened today. Thread demand recovered, production increased slightly, and inventory decreased. Hot - rolled coil demand declined, production dropped, and inventory increased slightly. High iron - water production and low inventory support steel prices. Domestic demand is weak, and exports are at a relatively high level. The market is optimistic, and the short - term trend is dominated by "anti - involution" [1]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market oscillated. Global shipments are slightly stronger than last year, and domestic arrivals have declined from high levels. Port inventories are stable. In the demand side, the terminal is in the off - season, but steel mills have profits and high iron - water production supports high - level ore handling. The market sentiment has improved, but the price is high [2]. Coke - The coke price rose and then fell. The third round of price increases by coking plants is underway. Coking profits are meager, and daily production has slightly increased. Overall inventory has decreased slightly, and traders' purchasing willingness has increased. The carbon supply is abundant, and the short - term trend is upward [3]. Coking Coal - The coking coal price hit the daily limit. Affected by policy documents, the price has risen significantly. Coal production has decreased slightly, the spot auction market has improved, and terminal inventory has increased. Total inventory has decreased, and short - term destocking is likely to continue. The short - term trend is upward [5]. Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese price rose and then fell. Due to previous production cuts, inventory has decreased, and weekly production recovery is slow. Manganese ore inventory is increasing, which suppresses prices. In the short - term, the inventory is low, and the price is rising slightly following the thread [6]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price fell at the end of the session. Iron - water production has increased, export demand is stable, and secondary demand has declined marginally. Supply has increased slightly, and inventory has decreased. It follows the thread trend with relatively weak price increases [7].

(棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅下跌，仍在高位震荡，商品整体偏强。7月上半月棉花库存去化速度有所放缓,截至7月15号，棉花商业库存为 254.24万吨，环比6月减少28.74万吨。国内6月份棉花进口延续偏低的趋势，2025年6月进口3万吨，再创近20年新低，同比降 12.53万吨，环比降0.45万吨；2025年1-6月累计进口46万吨，同比降74.3%，同比降133万吨。下游对于棉花采购仍然谨慎，国 内新年度增产预期较强。统棉纱市场交投一般，价格偏强。宏观上，中美即将在瑞典进行经贸会谈，市场预期偏乐观。操作上 暂时观望或日内操作为主。 | | | | 11/11/2/1 | 操作评级 | 2025年07月24日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | ☆☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | な☆☆ | | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 ★☆☆ | | F03096483 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: "Natural Gas: Changes in the Market Landscape after the LNG Production Tide" [1] - Industry: Natural Gas 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The global LNG market has experienced limited growth in recent years due to project delays and maintenance, but a significant increase in production capacity is expected from 2025 - 2027, which could push prices back to pre - 2022 levels [2][4] - The United States will become the world's largest LNG exporter, but its gas market may face a "long - term bullish, short - term bearish" situation [11][12] - The expansion of LNG supply will suppress gas prices below oil prices in the long run, and the characteristics of the LNG market under long - term contracts will change [18] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global LNG Market Situation - In 2024, global LNG export volume was 544.1 billion cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 0.45% due to project delays and increased maintenance. Since 2016, the global LNG trade has entered a rapid growth phase, and in 2022, LNG trade volume exceeded PNG trade volume [2] - Global LNG production capacity increased slightly from 631.7 billion cubic meters per year in 2022 to 651.9 billion cubic meters per year in 2024. The Russian Arctic LNG project was affected by sanctions and only showed signs of slow recovery in May 2025 [2] - From 2025, new LNG production capacity will be concentrated in major exporting countries. By the end of 2027, global LNG production capacity will reach 863.6 billion cubic meters per year, an increase of about 230 billion cubic meters per year compared to 2023 [4][5] Production Capacity Changes of Major Exporting Countries - **United States**: It will become the world's largest LNG exporter. By 2029, its LNG export capacity will increase from 11.44 bcf/d in 2023 to 21.89 bcf/d, contributing nearly 106 billion cubic meters per year of export growth [11] - **Qatar**: After the expansion of the North Field in 2026, its production capacity will increase, and the proportion of spot goods may increase significantly after 2026 [5][19] - **Australia**: Its investment is relatively cautious, with limited production capacity expansion in the next three years, and its production capacity proportion will decline from 18.0% to 14.2% [5] - **Canada**: It will become a new LNG exporter, with a new production capacity of 22 billion cubic meters per year in three years, which can reduce the shipping time to Asia and ease market panic [6] - **Russia**: The Arctic LNG project is affected by sanctions, and the possibility of normal export is uncertain. The implementation of the EU's ban on Russian gas may affect the Yamal project [6] United States Natural Gas Market - In 2025, the inventory of US natural gas is higher than the five - year average. Although exports are expected to increase in the second half of the year, supply remains high, and inventory is expected to return below the five - year average in December 2025 [12] - The US natural gas market may face a "long - term bullish, short - term bearish" situation, and attention should be paid to the risk of price decline due to demand adjustment [12] Impact on the LNG Market under Long - Term Contracts - The rapid expansion of LNG supply will suppress gas prices below oil prices in the long run, increasing the motivation for reselling long - term contract goods [18] - The proportion of long - term contracts in the United States is relatively stable, while Qatar may increase the proportion of spot goods after expansion. The contract types of the two countries are different, and the influence of US goods on TTF and JKM prices may increase [19]

| 112 > 国技期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年07月24日 | | 原油 | なな女 | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | なな女 | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ★☆☆ | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 三季度旺季石油市场延续了上半年的累库趋势,其中原油去库0.6%、成品油累库1.7%。OPEC+增产路径下石油市 场的供需盈余压力始终存在。7月原油市场进入伊以冲突剧烈波动后的震荡修复期，近期月差、现货升贴水转 弱,海外柴油裂解在东西套利窗口打开后亦有所回落,此前支撑市场的旺季强现实因素转弱。尽管美日协议以 利好落地,美国与欧盟、中国的贸易战风险仍令市场面临需求预期冲击,近期相关利空风险大于地缘端利多, 油价以震荡承压为主;8 ...

安如泰山 信守承诺 拍把系列(四):中国拍旅资源格局 点有成金 1 、中国铂族资源格局 1.1 我国铂族资源极度匮乏、分布集中 我国铂族金属资源极度匮乏,根据自然资源部数据,2022年我国铂族金属储量为80.9吨,资源储量持续下 降。从全国各地区储量分布来看，我国铂族金属主要分布在甘肃、云南、河北、四川、新疆和青海等，其中以 tt肃储量最多，为56.3吨，占全国总储量的近七成。我国铂、兜矿产量超8成来自金川甘肃的硫化铜镍矿。 资料来源:自然资源部、国投期货 资料来源:自然资源部、国投期货 Heraeus的金年刊数据，2024年全球把金总产量同比增0.7吨至25.6吨，其再生比例为28.5%。具体看，2024 年全球肥金矿产量同比增0.6%至183.4吨，2025年Impala Canada产量下降和Stillwater重组拖累下，预计把金 矿产量同比下降5%至174.8吨。2024年纪金回收量同比仅下降0.6%至73.1吨，新年销售低迷，欧、美、日汽车催 化剂回收编低，中国汽车"以旧换新"补贴导致旧车报废增加对冲了部分减量。2025年中国补贴政策准动下， 肥金回收量有望进一步提升，但美国汽车相关关税政策可能压 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★☆ (Trend of upward movement) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (Clear upward trend and investment opportunity) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★☆ (Trend of upward movement) [1] - Styrene: ★★☆ (Trend of upward movement) [1] - Polypropylene: ★★★ (Clear upward trend and investment opportunity) [1] - Plastic: ★★★ (Clear upward trend and investment opportunity) [1] - PVC: ★★★ (Clear upward trend and investment opportunity) [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ (Clear upward trend and investment opportunity) [1] - PX: ★★☆ (Trend of upward movement) [1] - PTA: ★★★ (Clear upward trend and investment opportunity) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ (Upward drive but limited operability) [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ (Clear upward trend and investment opportunity) [1] - Glass: ★★★ (Clear upward trend and investment opportunity) [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ (Clear upward trend and investment opportunity) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ (Clear upward trend and investment opportunity) [1] - Propylene: ★★☆ (Trend of upward movement) [1] Core Views - The chemical market is affected by various factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and macro - emotions. Different chemical products show different price trends and investment opportunities [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Olefin futures fluctuated narrowly. Supply pressure in Shandong increased, and prices were weakly sorted. Polyolefin futures rose. PE had improved market sentiment but weak demand and abundant supply. PP prices rose as low - price resources were sold out, and short - term demand was affected by the off - season [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices rebounded with improved commodity sentiment. There is an expected seasonal improvement in supply - demand in the third quarter and pressure in the fourth quarter. Styrene futures continued to consolidate horizontally. Macro - support was still there but weakened, and spot transactions were poor [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices rose driven by external sentiment. PTA continued to accumulate inventory, and the pressure on upstream raw materials was expected to weaken. Ethylene glycol prices rose, with weak downstream demand and supply recovery. Short fiber prices may be boosted by future demand, and bottle chip had limited profit - repair drivers [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures rose due to policy support. Port inventory decreased unexpectedly, and production enterprise inventory decreased slightly. Urea futures were firm. Domestic demand was weak, but exports were advancing, and the short - term trend was expected to be strong [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC was strongly running due to anti - involution policies, but demand was weak and supply increased. Caustic soda was also strong. Upstream policies may affect raw material prices, and downstream resistance was high [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash was strongly running due to anti - involution policies and rising prices. Inventory decreased, and supply was high. Glass touched the daily limit, with continued price increases and inventory reduction. A strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash can be considered [8]