1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Fed officials' dovish statements have increased market expectations of a December rate cut and the number of rate cuts next year, leading to a rebound in precious metal prices, with silver showing strong performance. The expected end - point of this round of rate cuts has been lowered. The influence of Trump on the Fed's independence is evident, and the US employment situation is slowing. Powell believes that changing economic risks provide more reasons for rate cuts, and the rate - cut process will continue. With weakening US economic data and concerns about the US fiscal situation and the Fed's independence, central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization trends remain unchanged. Supported by rate - cut expectations and safe - haven demand, the shortage of silver现货 continues, and precious metal prices are expected to be supported. Platinum and palladium futures prices are expected to continue a relatively strong and volatile trend after the domestic listing and the repair of the price difference with the overseas market [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Fed officials' dovish statements and rising rate - cut expectations led to a rebound in the price of US gold. As of last Friday, US gold closed at $4,256 per ounce, up 4.8% for the week. The upper pressure level is $4,350, and the lower support level is $4,170 [6]. - Fed officials' dovish statements, rising rate - cut expectations, and the continued shortage of silver现货 led to a rebound in the price of US silver. As of last Friday, it had a weekly gain of 13.4%, closing at $57.1 per ounce. The lower support level is $55, and the upper pressure level is $60 [9]. 3.2 Weekly View - The factors mentioned above support the precious metal prices. The price of platinum and palladium futures is expected to continue a relatively strong and volatile trend. In terms of inventory and position: Comex gold inventory decreased by 12,661.56 kg to 1,130,833.15 kg, and SHFE gold inventory increased by 447 kg to 90,873 kg. Comex silver inventory decreased by 122,252.50 kg to 14,207,209.64 kg, and SHFE silver inventory increased by 39,611 kg to 558,882 kg. This week, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 197,731 lots, a decrease of 27,471 lots from last week; the net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 40,567 lots, a decrease of 3,155 lots from last week. It is expected that the price will continue to be relatively strong, and it is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about opening new positions [11][13]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - The content mainly presents various macro - economic indicator charts, including the US dollar index, euro - US dollar and pound - US dollar exchange rates, real interest rates, yield spreads, gold - silver ratio, Fed balance sheet scale, WTI crude oil futures price trends, etc., but no specific analysis conclusions are given [15][17][19] 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Week - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending November 29 was 216,000, lower than the expected 225,000 and the previous value of 220,000 [26] 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - US Treasury Secretary Besent will conclude the second - round interview for the new Fed chairman later that day, and Trump may announce the candidate before Christmas. Bloomberg reported that Trump's allies and advisors think White House economic advisor Hassett is the most likely candidate, but the White House refuted the report. - The minutes of the European Central Bank's October 29 - 30 meeting showed that policymakers were not eager to cut rates due to high uncertainty, and some officials even thought no further easing was needed. - The Fed said that US economic activity has changed little in recent weeks, about half of the 12 regional Fed districts reported weakening employment and declining consumer spending, which may increase concerns about the labor market weakness as the next rate decision approaches [27] 3.6 Inventory - Comex gold inventory decreased by 12,661.56 kg to 1,130,833.15 kg, and SHFE gold inventory increased by 447 kg to 90,873 kg. Comex silver inventory decreased by 122,252.50 kg to 14,207,209.64 kg, and SHFE silver inventory increased by 39,611 kg to 558,882 kg [13][32] 3.7 Fund Position - As of October 14, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 197,731 lots, a decrease of 27,471 lots from last week; the net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 40,567 lots, a decrease of 3,155 lots from last week [13][36] 3.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Monday (December 1), at 23:00, the US November ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released. - On Wednesday (December 3), at 21:15, the change in the US November ADP employment number will be announced. - On Friday (December 5), at 23:00, the US September personal spending monthly rate will be released [38]

2025-12-1 产业推进反内卷，降息升温提振铜价 12月铜月报 01 行情回顾 02 宏观因素分析 03 基本面分析 05 后市展望 目 录 04 技术面分析 01 行情回顾 01 沪铜行情回顾 p 11月铜价偏强震荡，月涨幅0.46%，截至11月28日沪铜收盘价为87430元/吨。宏观方面，美国政府停摆结束提振市场信心，美国劳工部公布9月非农就 业情况，新增就业岗位显著高于预期。鲍威尔偏鹰言论使得市场对12月降息预期降温，叠加美联储后续利率政策内部意见分歧下导致降息概率降低，铜价高 位承压。随后多位美联储官员表态支持降息，以及美国零售销售不及预期及对就业市场担忧使得12月降息预期再度升温。基本面上，铜矿紧缺扰动持续，铜 精矿TC仍处于历史负值低位，自由港的印尼Grasberg预期将于明年二季度复产，但铜矿紧缺下铜价中枢中长期有支撑。智利国家铜业公司Codelco2026年 长期合同铜供应溢价大幅提高至创纪录的每吨350美元，而中国铜原料联合谈判小组CSPT达成共识：2026年降低矿铜产能负荷10%以上，坚决抵制不合理 计价及恶意竞争，国内铜冶炼反内卷预期下精铜产量或将收缩。铜价下跌带动下游订单回升，采购 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro sentiment has improved, with the market remaining stable during the week and experiencing a significant increase in positions on Friday night. It may continue the short - term rebound trend. It is recommended to reduce long positions after the price rebounds to a high level [3]. - The overall demand is gradually entering the off - season, and the start - up rate is expected to remain under pressure [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Analysis - Bauxite: The bauxite prices in Shanxi and Henan are temporarily stable. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore remained stable at $70.5 per dry ton week - on - week. The spot supply of imported ore is expected to increase in December, and the ore price is expected to be under pressure [3][10]. - Alumina: The operating capacity increased by 600,000 tons week - on - week to 96.7 million tons, and the national alumina inventory increased by 71,000 tons week - on - week to 4.415 million tons. Most alumina enterprises still maintain high - yield and full - production operations [3][13]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The operating capacity increased by 10,000 tons week - on - week to 44.434 million tons. Some electrolytic cells in Shanxi Shuozhou Energy were shut down for technological transformation, and individual aluminum plants in Xinjiang reduced production due to environmental protection control. New production capacities are being put into operation [3][22]. - Demand: The start - up rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.3% week - on - week to 62.3%. The aluminum cable industry continued to recover moderately, and the start - up rates of the profile and primary aluminum alloy industries increased. However, the overall demand is entering the off - season [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased during the week. In the recycled cast aluminum alloy sector, the full orders in the automobile sector drove up the capacity utilization rate [3]. 2. Strategy Recommendations - Alumina: It is recommended to trade in the bottom range [4]. - Shanghai Aluminum: It is recommended to reduce long positions after the price rebounds to a high level [4]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It is recommended to reduce long positions after the price rebounds to a high level [4]. 3. Aluminum Bauxite - The bauxite prices in Shanxi and Henan are stable. Issues such as mining rectification, mine reclamation requirements, and enhanced safety and environmental protection supervision still restrict the resumption of production of many mines [10]. - The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore remained stable, but the expected increase in supply in December will put pressure on the price. December is the time for signing long - term contracts for 2025 and determining the first - quarter price, and the supply - demand expectation is poor [10]. 4. Alumina - As of last Friday, the built - up capacity was 114.62 million tons (unchanged week - on - week), the operating capacity was 96.7 million tons (an increase of 600,000 tons week - on - week), and the start - up rate was 83.8%. The domestic spot weighted price was 2,831.9 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2 yuan per ton week - on - week [13]. - The national alumina inventory increased, and most enterprises maintained high - yield operations. High - cost alumina enterprises are in a dilemma of deciding whether to reduce production [13]. 5. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the built - up capacity was 45.242 million tons (an increase of 10,000 tons week - on - week), and the operating capacity was 44.434 million tons (an increase of 10,000 tons week - on - week) [22]. - There were capacity reductions and new capacity investments. Shanxi Shuozhou Energy carried out technological transformation, and Xinjiang had production cuts. New capacities of Tianshan Aluminum and Zha Aluminum are being put into operation [22]. 6. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The start - up rate of recycled aluminum alloy leading enterprises increased by 0.9% week - on - week to 61.5%. The orders in the automobile field are full, but the industry's overall start - up rate is restricted by high raw material prices and short - term supply shortages [36]. 7. Downstream Start - up - The start - up rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.3% week - on - week to 62.3% [48]. - Aluminum Profiles: The start - up rate increased by 0.4% week - on - week to 52.5%. The demand for automotive profiles is good, but the construction profiles are still in a downturn [48]. - Aluminum Plate and Strip: The start - up rate remained stable at 66.4%. The environmental protection restrictions in the Central Plains were temporarily lifted, but the year - end air pollution control affected transportation and orders [48]. - Aluminum Cables: The start - up rate increased by 0.6% week - on - week to 63%. The current orders have improved slightly, but the grid's提货persistence is expected to weaken [51]. - Primary Aluminum Alloy: The start - up rate increased by 0.4% week - on - week to 60.2%. The downstream manufacturing orders increased slightly, and the industry is in the traditional peak season [51].

黑色：原料两极分化 钢价低位震荡 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-12-01 长江期货股份有限公司产业服务总部 姜玉龙 执业编号：F3022468 投资咨询号：Z0013681 周度总结：原料两极分化 钢价低位震荡 资料来源：Mysteel 同花顺 长江期货 品种 基本面分析 展望 01 黑色板块走势对比：钢矿上涨 双焦下跌 板块综述：上周黑色板块延续分化走势，钢材、铁矿价格上涨，焦煤、焦炭价格下跌，品种间强弱关系为螺纹>铁矿>热卷>焦炭> 焦煤。宏观方面：美联储12月降息概率提升，短期国内处于政策真空期。产业方面：上周钢材表需小幅下降，库存顺畅去化，不过后期 需求仍有下降空间，随着钢厂利润持续走低，钢厂减产有望增多，原料需求依旧承压，成本存在下移预期。 | 钢材 | 估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格回升至电炉谷电成本附近，静态估值中性偏低；驱动方面，短期 | 钢价低位震荡，短线交 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 处于政策真空期，关注12月中央经济工作会议，产业方面，上周螺纹钢产量、需求双降，库存顺 | 易为主。 | | | 畅去化，短期供需矛盾不大， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Polyolefins face significant upward pressure and are expected to trade within a range. The PE main contract is expected to oscillate within a range, with support at 6,700, while the PP main contract is expected to be weakly oscillating, with support at 6,400. The LP spread is expected to widen [8][9]. - Plastics still have supply - demand contradictions and are expected to trade in an oscillatory manner [10]. - PP faces high trend pressure and is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short - term [50]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Plastic Section Market Review - On November 28, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6,789 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.28%. The average price of LDPE was 9,000 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.37%. The average price of HDPE was 7,387.90 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.94%. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7,188.33 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.00%. The LLDPE South China basis was 399.33 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 18.60%, and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 68 yuan/ton (-7) [12]. Key Data Tracking - **Month - spread**: On November 28, 2025, the 1 - 5 month spread was - 68 yuan/ton (-7), the 5 - 9 month spread was - 25 yuan/ton (+21), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 93 yuan/ton (-14) [18]. - **Spot Price**: Different regions and varieties of plastics had various price changes on November 28, 2025, with some showing increases and others decreases [19][20]. - **Cost**: WTI crude oil closed at $58.48 per barrel, an increase of $0.50 per barrel from the previous week. Brent crude oil closed at $62.32 per barrel, a decrease of $0.43 per barrel from the previous week. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,110 yuan/ton (unchanged) [22]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was - 337 yuan/ton, an increase of 78 yuan/ton from the previous week. The profit of coal - based PE was - 237 yuan/ton, a decrease of 129 yuan/ton from the previous week [27]. - **Supply**: The operating rate of polyethylene production in China this week was 84.51%, an increase of 1.79 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly output of polyethylene was 68.48 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.16%. The maintenance loss this week was 8.68 tons, a decrease of 1.27 tons from the previous week [32]. - **2025 Production Plan**: A total of 5.43 million tons of new polyethylene production capacity is planned to be put into operation in 2025, with some already in operation and some scheduled for December 2025 [35]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Multiple enterprises' polyethylene production lines are under maintenance, with some having undetermined restart times [36]. - **Demand**: The overall operating rate of domestic agricultural film this week was 49.04%, a decrease of 0.87% from the previous week. The operating rate of PE packaging film was 50.70%, a decrease of 0.23% from the previous weekend. The operating rate of PE pipes was 31.83%, a decrease of 0.17% from the previous weekend [38]. - **Downstream Production Ratio**: Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, accounting for 39.1%, with a difference of 3.8% from the annual average level. The difference between the low - pressure film and the annual average data is significant, currently accounting for 10%, with a difference of 3.2% from the annual average level [41]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of plastic enterprises this week was 47.11 tons, a decrease of 1.48 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 3.05% [43]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 11,546 lots, a decrease of 289 lots from the previous week [47]. PP Section Market Review - On November 28, the closing price of the PP main contract was 6,357 yuan/ton, a decrease of 117 yuan/ton from the previous weekend, a month - on - month decrease of 1.81% [51]. Key Data Tracking - **Downstream Spot Price**: Different PP products and related products had various price changes on November 28, 2025 [52][55]. - **Basis**: On November 28, the spot price of PP reported by Shengyi.com was 6,363.33 yuan/ton (-43.34). The PP basis was - 46 yuan/ton (-95), and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 81 yuan/ton (+36) [57]. - **Month - spread**: On November 28, 2025, the 1 - 5 month spread was - 81 yuan/ton (+36), the 5 - 9 month spread was - 14 yuan/ton (+29), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 95 yuan/ton (-65) [60]. - **Cost**: WTI crude oil closed at $58.48 per barrel, an increase of $0.50 per barrel from the previous week. Brent crude oil closed at $62.32 per barrel, a decrease of $0.43 per barrel from the previous week. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,110 yuan/ton (unchanged) [65]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was - 598.26 yuan/ton, an increase of 77.39 yuan/ton from the previous weekend. The profit of coal - based PP was - 579.80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34.13 yuan/ton from the previous weekend [70]. - **Supply**: The operating rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises this week was 78.14%, a decrease of 0.14 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly output of PP pellets was 80.68 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.18%. The weekly output of PP powder was 7.65 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.01% [75]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Multiple enterprises' PP production lines are under maintenance, with some having undetermined restart times [78]. - **Demand**: The average downstream operating rate this week was 53.83% (+0.26). The operating rate of plastic weaving was 44.10% (-0.14%), the operating rate of BOPP was 62.60% (unchanged), the operating rate of injection molding was 58.87% (-0.19%), and the operating rate of pipes was 42.17% (+2.04%) [80]. - **Production Ratio**: Different PP product production ratios had various changes from November 24 - 28, 2025 [86]. - **Import and Export Profit**: This week, the PP import profit was - 246.96 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6.50 US dollars/ton compared to the previous week. The export profit was - 12.31 US dollars/ton, an increase of 8.10 US dollars/ton compared to the previous week [87]. - **Inventory**: The domestic PP inventory this week was 54.63 tons (-8.00%); the inventory of the two major oil companies decreased by 7.88% month - on - month, the inventory of traders decreased by 6.04% month - on - month, and the port inventory decreased by 0.76% month - on - month [90]. - **Finished Product and Raw Material Inventory**: The finished product inventory of large - scale plastic - weaving enterprises this week was 990.01 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.08%. The BOPP raw material inventory was 10.25 days, a month - on - month increase of 3.64% [98]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of PP warehouse receipts was 15,866 lots, an increase of 133 lots from the previous week [103].

玻璃：停产预期炒作 观望不宜追高 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-12-1 【产业服务总部 | 黑色金属团队】 姜玉龙 执业编号：F3022468 投资咨询号：Z0013681 01 投资策略：观望不追高 p 主要逻辑 行情回顾：上周玻璃期货明显反弹，周线报收中阳线。近期上涨原因，一是市场传出大量产线停产传闻，以及少量产线确 实停止投料生产。二是期现商拿货，造成主要地区的产销率提升。供给方面，上周一条产线停产，日熔量继续小幅下降。在停 产消息支持下，沙河湖北中间商提货增加，带动厂家小幅去库。中下游保持刚需采购且数量上进一步缩减，所以库存仍然是向 中游累积。华东华南价格跟随外围市场有所下降，同样是以优惠促销去库为主。需求方面，年前赶工效果较差，加工厂刚需走 弱，整体中下游补货情绪不高。纯碱方面，近期部分厂家检修降荷，供给端压力有所缓解，期货盘面已接近前期低点，观望为 宜。 后市展望：停产传闻造成盘面反弹，但玻璃社会库存压力巨大，仍然存在对近月合约的交割压力。年底需求逐步走弱，贸 易商主要关注回款问题，难有主动拿货动作。技术上看，多方势能占优，但力量减弱。综上，玻璃近 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are favored in the medium to long term, with a strategy of buying on dips; treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range trading; glass is advised to be observed without chasing high prices [1][7][8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is suitable for short - term range trading; aluminum suggests reducing long positions at high levels after a rebound; nickel advises waiting and watching or shorting on rallies; tin is for range trading; gold is for range trading; silver recommends holding long positions and being cautious about new positions; lithium carbonate is expected to be in a relatively strong sideways trend [1][11][14]. - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, soda ash, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; polyolefins are expected to be in a weak sideways trend [1][19][21]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade sideways; PTA is for range - bound trading; apples are expected to be in a slightly strong sideways trend; jujubes are expected to be in a weak sideways trend [1][27][29]. - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs in the near - term are in a weak adjustment at low levels, and caution is advised when chasing high prices in the far - term; eggs' price increase is restricted; corn suggests hedging on rallies; soybean meal is mainly for range trading; oils are expected to stop falling and rebound, with a strategy of buying on dips [1][31][35]. Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their current market conditions, supply - demand fundamentals, and macro - economic factors. It analyzes each product's situation in detail, including factors such as production, consumption, inventory, and policy, and offers corresponding investment strategies [1]. Summaries by Category Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: China's November official manufacturing PMI rebounded, and the external environment improved. However, the market's main line rotates quickly, so index futures may trade sideways. In the medium to long term, they are favored, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: After continuous callbacks, the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year active bonds have basically retreated to the level before the announcement of treasury bond trading operations. The market may focus on the actual scale of the central bank's treasury bond trading operations at the end of the month. Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [5]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The coal mine market is in a continuous price - cut trend, with weak demand. Market participants are generally in a wait - and - see state. It is recommended for range trading [8]. - **Rebar**: The futures price of rebar strengthened last Friday. In the short term, it is in a policy vacuum period. The supply and demand contradiction is not significant, and the price increase and decrease drivers are both weak. It is recommended for range trading [8]. - **Glass**: The suspension of production rumors caused the futures price to rebound, but the social inventory pressure of glass is huge, and the demand is gradually weakening at the end of the year. It is not advisable to chase high prices for the near - term contract, and it is necessary to wait for the peak - forming signal [10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The safety situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is complex and severe. The market consumption has shown a good momentum recently, and the social inventory has decreased. The long - term demand for copper is still optimistic, but in the short term, it is necessary to be vigilant against the suppression of consumption by high copper prices and the pressure brought by changes in the Fed's policy expectations. It is recommended for short - term range trading [11]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of bauxite in Shanxi and Henan are temporarily stable. The supply of imported ore is expected to increase in December, and the price may be under pressure. The demand is gradually entering the off - season. It is recommended to reduce long positions at high levels after a rebound [12]. - **Nickel**: The price of nickel ore remains firm, and the supply of nickel ore may be relatively loose. The refined nickel is in a surplus pattern, and the price of nickel iron has limited upward space. It is recommended to wait and watch or short on rallies moderately [15]. - **Tin**: The domestic refined tin production increased in October, and the consumption of the semiconductor industry is expected to continue to recover. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream consumption is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the supply resumption and downstream demand [15]. - **Silver and Gold**: Fed officials' dovish speeches have increased the market's expectation of interest rate cuts. Precious metals prices have rebounded. It is recommended to hold long positions in silver and be cautious about new positions, and to conduct range trading in gold [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is in a tight balance, and the downstream demand is strong. It is necessary to pay attention to the progress of the mining license in Yichun and the resumption of production of the Ningde lithium mine. It is expected to be in a relatively strong sideways trend [19]. Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is in a low - profit state, the supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export support may weaken. The overall supply and demand is still weak, but it has a low valuation. It is expected to be in a weak sideways trend [19]. - **Caustic Soda**: The alumina end has high production and high inventory, compressing profits. The supply of caustic soda is high in winter. It is recommended to wait and watch [21]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot trading is stable, and the upstream has a strong mentality of holding prices. The supply is expected to shrink, and the cost support is strong. It is recommended to wait and watch [27]. - **Styrene**: The overseas blending logic is difficult to change the weak fundamentals in the short term. It is mainly in a sideways trend, and it is necessary to pay attention to the price of pure benzene in January and the change of the crude oil pricing center [21]. - **Rubber**: The supply is expected to increase in the peak - season, and the terminal demand improvement is weak. However, there may be speculation about the shortage of delivery products. It is recommended for range trading [22]. - **Urea**: The daily output has increased, the agricultural fertilizer demand is gradually weakening, and the demand from compound fertilizer enterprises has increased. The inventory is in a state of high production and high inventory. It is expected to be in a sideways trend [23]. - **Methanol**: The domestic supply has recovered, the demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry has increased slightly, and the traditional downstream demand is weak. The port inventory has decreased significantly. It is expected to be in a sideways trend [24]. - **Polyolefins**: The inventory has continued to decline, mainly due to downstream replenishment at low prices. The demand is in a state where the peak season has ended, and the upward pressure is large. PE is expected to trade sideways in the range, and PP is expected to be in a weak sideways trend [25]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply and demand data is relatively loose, but the recent strong yarn price has driven the rebound of cotton. It is expected to trade sideways [27]. - **PTA**: The international oil price has fallen, and the PTA price is in a low - level sideways trend. The supply and demand is in a state of inventory reduction. It is recommended to pay attention to the range of 4500 - 4800 [27]. - **Apples**: The trading of late - Fuji apples on the ground and in storage is coming to an end. The price is expected to be in a slightly strong sideways trend [29]. - **Jujubes**: The acquisition progress of gray jujubes in Xinjiang is about 40% - 50%, and the enterprise acquisition enthusiasm is average. The price is expected to be in a weak sideways trend [29]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: In the short term, the supply pressure still exists, and the demand increase is not obvious. In the medium to long term, the production capacity reduction has accelerated but is still above the equilibrium level. It is recommended to short on rallies in the near - term and be cautious about bullish in the far - term [32]. - **Eggs**: In the short term, the spot price fluctuates slightly, and the futures price trades in a range. In the medium term, the supply - demand relationship has marginally improved. In the long term, the production capacity clearance still takes time. It is necessary to pay attention to external factors [34]. - **Corn**: In the short term, the market supply slowdown supports the spot price rebound, but the terminal demand recovery is limited. In the medium to long term, the cost has strong support, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. It is recommended to hedge on rallies [34]. - **Soybean Meal**: The U.S. soybean price is supported at 1120 cents, and the domestic supply from November to January is abundant. It is mainly for range trading, and spot enterprises can fix prices at low points for the November - January basis [35]. - **Oils**: In the short term, the three major oils are expected to stop falling and rebound, but the rebound height is limited. In the long term, it is necessary to pay attention to potential positive factors. It is recommended to buy on dips and focus on Malaysian palm oil high - frequency data [40].

长江期货尿素周报： 去库延续 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 2025-12-1 【产业服务总部 | 能化产业服务中心】 研 究 员：张 英 执业编号：F03105021 投资咨询号：Z0021335 尿素：去库延续 01 1 市场变化：价格：尿素周度价格先跌后涨，12月28日尿素2601合约收盘价1677元/吨，较上周上调23元/吨，期间最 高1687元/吨，最低1625元/吨。尿素现货河南市场日均价1636元/吨，较上周上调6元/吨，涨幅0.37%。基差：尿素 主力基差先强后弱，12月28日河南市场主力基差-41元/吨，周度基差运行区间（-41）—（-9）元/吨。价差：尿素 1-5价差先强后弱，12月28日1-5价差-66元/吨，周度运行区间（-73）—（-59）元/吨。 2 基本面变化：供应端中国尿素开工负荷率86.4%，较上周提升0.55个百分点，其中气头企业开工负荷率74.44%，较 上周提升1.55个百分点，尿素日均产量20.24万吨。成本端无烟煤市场交投有所降温，煤价持稳运行，至11月27日， 山西晋城S0.4-0.5无烟洗小块含税价900-960元/吨，较上 ...

Report Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term and recommend buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar suggest range trading; glass is expected to continue weakening [1][5][7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper, aluminum, tin, gold, and silver recommend range trading; nickel suggests waiting or shorting on rallies; lithium carbonate is expected to trade with a bullish bias [1][9][14]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol suggest range trading; caustic soda and soda ash recommend waiting and watching; polyolefins are expected to trade with a bearish bias [1][16][18]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade sideways; PTA suggests range - bound trading; apples are expected to trade with a bullish bias; jujubes are expected to trade with a bearish bias [1][25][27]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Live pigs' near - term contracts are expected to adjust weakly at low levels, and long - term contracts should be cautiously chased for rallies; eggs' price increase is limited; corn suggests waiting for a rebound to hedge at high prices; soybean meal suggests range trading; oils and fats suggest buying on dips after a rebound [1][30][34]. Core Views The report analyzes various futures markets, including macro finance, black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy and chemicals, cotton textile industry chain, and agriculture and animal husbandry. It provides trading suggestions based on current market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors for each sector. Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Due to factors such as rising US inflation, weak retail sales, and high - valuation risks in Europe, the market rotation is fast, and index futures are expected to trade sideways in the short term but are bullish in the medium to long term [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is currently "insensitive to positive news and sensitive to negative news" because of the narrow interest - rate fluctuation range, which reduces the attractiveness to institutional investors. Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [5]. Black Building Materials - **Double - Coking Coal**: The coal market is in a downward trend with weak demand. Most mines are reducing prices, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. It is recommended to trade within a range [6]. - **Rebar**: With unclear prospects for the Fed's December interest - rate cut and a domestic policy vacuum, steel production and demand have both declined this week. Steel mills' profits are low, and production cuts may increase. Rebar is expected to trade within a range at low levels [7]. - **Glass**: Although there are rumors of production line cold - repairs, most of them are false. Supply remains stable, demand is weak, and glass prices are expected to continue weakening [8]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Concerns about supply from Congo (Kinshasa) and the restart of production in Indonesia's Grasberg mine are factors. Consumption has improved, and social inventories have decreased. Copper prices are expected to remain high in the short term, with a trading range of 85,000 - 88,000 yuan, and it is recommended to trade within the range [9]. - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite is expected to decline, and alumina production capacity is increasing. Aluminum production capacity is relatively stable, and demand is entering the off - season. Aluminum prices are expected to trade sideways [9][10]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia's new RKAB policy may increase supply uncertainty. Nickel is in an oversupply situation, and it is recommended to wait or short on rallies [13]. - **Tin**: Domestic production and imports have changed, and the semiconductor industry is recovering. Supply is expected to improve, and tin prices are expected to be supported. It is recommended to pay attention to supply and demand [14]. - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by the US economic data and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, both are expected to trade sideways in the short term and be supported in the medium term [14][15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply is affected by mine production, and demand is strong. The domestic supply - demand is in a tight balance, and prices are expected to trade with a bullish bias [15]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: High supply, weak domestic demand, and uncertain export growth. PVC is expected to trade with a bearish bias, and it is necessary to pay attention to policies and cost factors [16]. - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by alumina production and inventory, it is recommended to wait and watch [18]. - **Styrene**: The rebound is limited by factors such as pure - benzene supply and demand and port inventory. It is expected to trade sideways [18]. - **Rubber**: Entering the off - season of production, inventory is increasing, and demand is weak. Rubber prices are expected to trade within a range [20]. - **Urea**: Supply is increasing, demand from agriculture is weakening, and industrial demand is strengthening. Urea is expected to trade sideways [21]. - **Methanol**: Supply is increasing, demand from the olefin industry is stable, and traditional demand is weak. Methanol prices are expected to trade sideways [23]. - **Polyolefins**: Supply pressure has eased, demand is improving slightly, and prices are expected to trade with a bearish bias. It is necessary to pay attention to downstream demand and raw - material prices [24]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is expected to decrease, demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and watch [24]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Global cotton supply and demand are relatively loose, but yarn prices are firm, and they are expected to trade sideways [27]. - **PTA**: Affected by oil prices and supply - demand, it is expected to trade within a range at low levels [27]. - **Apples**: Warehouse trading is stable, and prices are expected to trade with a bullish bias [28]. - **Jujubes**: Acquisition progress varies by region, and prices are expected to trade with a bearish bias [29]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: Short - term supply pressure remains, demand growth is limited, and long - term capacity reduction is accelerating but still above the normal level. Near - term contracts are recommended to be shorted on rallies, and long - term contracts should be cautiously chased for rallies [30][32]. - **Eggs**: Short - term supply and demand are improving marginally, long - term capacity reduction takes time, and price increases are limited [32][33]. - **Corn**: Short - term supply pressure is relieved, long - term supply and demand are relatively loose, and it is recommended to hedge at high prices after a rebound [34]. - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by import policies and weather, it is recommended to trade within a range [35]. - **Oils and Fats**: Short - term prices are rebounding, but there are still many limiting factors. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to palm - oil data [35][40].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are long - term bullish, recommended to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and coke, and rebar are recommended for range trading; Glass is expected to continue weakening [1][6][7] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper, aluminum, tin, gold, silver, and lithium carbonate are recommended for range trading; Nickel is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [1][9][11][14] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are recommended for range trading; Caustic soda and soda ash are recommended to wait and see; Polyolefins are expected to trade weakly [1][18][20][21] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade sideways; PTA is expected to trade in a range; Apples are expected to be bullish in a sideways market; Jujubes are expected to be bearish in a sideways market [1][29][31] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Live pigs' near - term contracts are expected to adjust weakly at low levels, and long - term contracts should be chased with caution; Eggs are expected to trade in a range; Corn is recommended to hedge on rallies; Soybean meal is recommended for range trading; Oils are expected to trade weakly in the short - term [1][32][33][34] Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on market analysis of different industries, including macro - economic data, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors. It also points out that market trends are affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical events, policy changes, and seasonal patterns [5][6][7] Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Due to factors such as US inflation, retail sales, and European Central Bank warnings, the main market trends rotate quickly, and index futures may trade sideways in the short - term but are long - term bullish [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is currently "insensitive to positives and sensitive to negatives", with narrow interest rate fluctuations and low odds, resulting in reduced attractiveness for allocation. Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coal mine market is in a continuous price - cutting trend, with weak demand and a strong bearish sentiment. Market participants are mostly waiting and seeing, and it is recommended for range trading [6][7] - **Rebar**: With an unclear outlook for the Fed's December rate cut and a domestic policy vacuum, steel production and demand increased last week, but future demand may decline. Steel prices are expected to trade sideways at low levels due to low valuations and weak drivers [7] - **Glass**: Although there are rumors of production line cold - repairs, most of them are false. Supply remains stable, demand is weak, and inventory is high. Glass prices are expected to continue weakening [7] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Geopolitical factors in Congo (Kinshasa) bring uncertainties, but market consumption is improving, and social inventory is decreasing. Copper prices are expected to trade in a high - level range in the short - term, with long - term bullish potential [9] - **Aluminum**: Alumina and electrolytic aluminum production capacities have changed slightly. Demand is entering the off - season, and inventory has decreased slightly. Aluminum prices are expected to trade sideways [10] - **Nickel**: Indonesia's new RKAB policy may affect supply, and the market is in a state of over - supply. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [13][14] - **Tin**: Domestic production has increased, and supply is expected to improve. The semiconductor industry is recovering, but downstream consumption is weak. Tin prices are expected to be supported, and it is recommended to pay attention to supply and demand [14] - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by US economic data and Fed rate - cut expectations, prices are in an adjustment phase. They are expected to be supported in the medium - term and continue to trade sideways in the short - term [15][16][18] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply is in a tight balance, and demand is strong. Prices are expected to continue a strong sideways trend, and it is recommended to pay attention to mine production and permits [18] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With high supply, weak domestic demand, and uncertain export growth, PVC is expected to trade weakly in a sideways market, but attention should be paid to policy and cost factors [18] - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by alumina production and inventory, caustic soda's valuation is suppressed. It is recommended to wait and see [20] - **Styrene**: The overseas blending logic is difficult to change the weak fundamentals in the short - term. It is expected to trade sideways, and attention should be paid to pure benzene prices and crude oil [21][22] - **Rubber**: Domestic production areas are entering the off - season, and overseas floods have affected supply. However, inventory has increased significantly, and prices are expected to trade in a range [22] - **Urea**: Supply has increased, agricultural demand is weakening, and industrial demand is strengthening. Urea prices are expected to trade sideways under high production and inventory [24][25] - **Methanol**: Supply has recovered, demand from the olefin industry has increased slightly, and traditional demand is weak. Inventory has decreased at ports, and prices are expected to stabilize [25] - **Polyolefins**: With weakening supply pressure, some improvement in demand, and compressed production profits, PE is expected to trade in a range, and PP is expected to trade weakly [26][27] - **Soda Ash**: Supply is expected to contract, and demand is weak. With cost support, it is recommended to wait and see [28][29] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Global cotton supply and demand are relatively loose, but yarn prices are strong, and cotton prices are expected to trade sideways [29] - **PTA**: Affected by oil prices and supply - demand relationships, PTA prices are expected to trade in a low - level range [29] - **Apples**: Ground and warehouse trading is coming to an end, and prices are expected to be bullish in a sideways market [31] - **Jujubes**: The acquisition progress in Xinjiang is uneven, and prices are expected to be bearish in a sideways market [31] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: In the short - term, supply pressure remains, and demand growth is limited. In the long - term, capacity reduction has accelerated but is still above the equilibrium level. It is recommended to short on rallies in the near - term and be cautious about long - term rallies [32] - **Eggs**: Supply is relatively abundant, but short - term supply pressure has eased, and prices are expected to trade in a range with limited upside [33] - **Corn**: Short - term supply pressure has eased, and prices may rebound, but long - term supply is expected to be abundant, and demand is weak. It is recommended to hedge on rallies [34] - **Soybean Meal**: US soybean prices are expected to trade narrowly, and domestic supply is sufficient in the short - term. It is recommended for range trading [36] - **Oils**: In the short - term, palm oil production growth has slowed, but export data is poor, and there are many negative factors. Oils are expected to trade in a low - level range. In the long - term, they are expected to trade in a wide range [37][41]