Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Stock Index**: After Trump postponed 50% of the tariffs, the EU stated that the EU - US trade negotiations had "new impetus" and planned to "advance rapidly." Japan planned to use LNG projects and shipbuilding technology to seek tariff concessions from the US, aiming to reach an agreement by mid - June. ECB President Lagarde said the euro could become an alternative to the US dollar. Domestically, the market rotation was fast, the main driving force was weak, and trading volume was insufficient, so the stock index might fluctuate weakly [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Since early May, factors such as the profit - taking after the "dual cuts," the bond market's risk - aversion sentiment due to the 90 - day tariff suspension, concerns about "deposit migration" after the deposit rate cut, and worries about bond issuance supply had a bearish impact on the bond market. Current bond market investors were generally cautious, and the view of "bullish but not buying" limited the depth of market adjustment to some extent and provided the probability and odds for subsequent trading [3]. 3. Strategy Recommendations - **Stock Index**: Adopt a defensive and wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Bullish in the short term [4]. 4. Market Review - **Stock Index**: The main contract futures of CSI 300 fell 0.61%, that of SSE 50 fell 0.46%, that of CSI 500 rose 0.33%, and that of CSI 1000 rose 0.69% [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10 - year main contract rose 0.00%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.01%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.13%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.03% [9]. 5. Technical Analysis - **Stock Index**: The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index suggested a weak trend [7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The KDJ indicator of the T main contract showed a fluctuating and strong trend [10]. 6. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/contract) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025 - 05 - 23 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3,831.20 | - 0.61 | 62,863 | 138,782 | | 2025 - 05 - 23 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2,684.40 | - 0.46 | 34,244 | 51,685 | | 2025 - 05 - 23 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5,594.60 | 0.33 | 56,454 | 110,791 | | 2025 - 05 - 23 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 5,925.00 | 0.49 | 133,893 | 181,503 | | 2025 - 05 - 23 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.855 | 0.00 | 52,310 | 166,526 | | 2025 - 05 - 23 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 106.060 | 0.01 | 48,389 | 125,742 | | 2025 - 05 - 23 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 119.760 | 0.13 | 58,787 | 91,927 | | 2025 - 05 - 23 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.430 | 0.03 | 31,127 | 102,629 | [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Defensive Observation [1][5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Bullish in the short - term, expected to fluctuate upwards [1][5] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: Temporarily Observation, expected to fluctuate [7] - **Iron Ore**: Expected to fluctuate weakly [1][7] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Expected to fluctuate [1][9] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Cautious trading within a range [1][12] - **Aluminum**: Observation [1][13] - **Nickel**: Observation or shorting on rallies [1][15] - **Tin**: Trading within a range [1][17] - **Gold**: Building long positions on dips after full price corrections [1][19] - **Silver**: Trading within a range [1][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Expected to fluctuate weakly, focus on the 5000 level pressure [1][21] - **Soda Ash**: Observation, expected to fluctuate weakly [1][33] - **Caustic Soda**: Expected to fluctuate weakly, temporarily focus on the 2550 level pressure [1][23] - **Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate weakly, focus on the 15300 level pressure [1][25] - **Urea**: Expected to fluctuate weakly [1][28] - **Methanol**: Expected to fluctuate widely, reference range 2200 - 2380 [1][29] - **Plastic**: Expected to fluctuate widely, reference range 6950 - 7350 [1][31] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Expected to rebound with fluctuations [1][35] - **Apple**: Expected to fluctuate [1][35] - **PTA**: Trading within the range of 4650 - 4900 [1][36] Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: Expected to fluctuate weakly [1][39] - **Eggs**: Shorting on rallies [1][40] - **Corn**: Trading within the range of 2300 - 2360, long on dips at the lower end of the range [1][41] - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term trading within the range of 2860 - 3000, long on dips after mid - June [1][43] - **Oils and Fats**: Shorting on rallies with caution [1][43] 2. Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products. It analyzes the impact of multiple factors such as macro - economy, policies, supply - demand fundamentals, and international trade on different futures markets. For most products, the market shows a trend of fluctuation, and the investment strategies mainly include observation, trading within a range, and short - term or long - term trading based on price levels and market trends [1][5][7]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Due to factors like domestic market rotation, weak main - line driving force, and insufficient trading volume, the stock index may fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to take a defensive observation stance [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: After the previous negative factors reached a peak, the bond market began to recover. Although investors are still cautious, it is expected to fluctuate upwards in the short - term [5]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: With falling apparent demand, rising production, and slowing inventory depletion, and considering low valuation and weakening demand, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Affected by macro - sentiment and coal price decline, although there are factors such as potential production increase of Australian mines and decreasing inventory, the iron ore 09 contract is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to observe [7][8]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Both coking coal and coke face supply - demand contradictions. Coking coal is affected by production restrictions, inventory accumulation, and weak demand; coke is affected by reduced demand from steel mills and price cuts. They are expected to fluctuate [9][10][11]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Despite weakening support from fundamentals, the copper price is still expected to fluctuate before the holiday due to factors such as mine - end interference, supply - demand situation, and inventory levels. It is recommended to trade cautiously within a range [12]. - **Aluminum**: With the change in the situation of Guinea's mining licenses, the price of alumina has risen. The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing, while the downstream demand may weaken. It is recommended to observe [13][14]. - **Nickel**: Although the cost is firm, there is a long - term supply surplus. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to observe or short on rallies [15][16]. - **Tin**: With factors such as changes in production and consumption, and the impact of tariff policies, the price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to trade within a range [17]. - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by factors such as Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, Fed policies, and inflation data, the prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to build long positions on dips [19]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With high inventory, weak demand, and the impact of tariffs, although the short - term tariff situation has improved, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to macro - news [21][22]. - **Caustic Soda**: In June, there may be a situation of weak supply and demand. The medium - term supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand growth is limited. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [25]. - **Rubber**: With slow raw material supply increase in the short - term and weak downstream demand, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [26]. - **Urea**: With high supply, weak agricultural and industrial demand, and increasing inventory, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to short on rallies [28]. - **Methanol**: With relatively abundant supply and weak downstream demand, it is expected to fluctuate widely. It is necessary to pay attention to multiple factors such as macro - changes and device maintenance [29][30]. - **Plastic**: With reduced supply due to maintenance and weak downstream demand, it is expected to fluctuate widely. It is necessary to pay attention to downstream demand and other factors [31][32]. - **Soda Ash**: Although the spot price is firm, the futures price is under pressure due to insufficient expected maintenance. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to observe [33]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton**: Although the global supply - demand is still loose, due to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations, the cotton price is expected to rebound with fluctuations [35]. - **Apple**: With stable market transactions and clear fruit - setting and bagging situations, the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [35][36]. - **PTA**: Affected by the decline in oil prices and the weakening of supply - demand fundamentals, the price is under short - term pressure and is expected to fluctuate within a range [36][37]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: In the short - term, due to the game between supply and demand, the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. In the long - term, due to the increase in supply, the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies at resistance levels [39]. - **Eggs**: In the short - term, the egg price is supported by the approaching Dragon Boat Festival, but the supply is large, and the price is under pressure. In different periods, different investment strategies are recommended [40]. - **Corn**: In the short - term, the price is supported by reduced grassroots grain sources. In the long - term, although the supply - demand is tightening, the price increase is limited by substitutes. It is recommended to trade within a range and long on dips [41]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the short - term, due to factors such as sufficient supply, it is expected to fluctuate at a low level. In the long - term, due to cost increase and weather factors, it is expected to be bullish. It is recommended to trade within a range and long on dips after mid - June [43]. - **Oils and Fats**: In the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate due to the game of multiple factors. In the long - term, it is expected to decline first and then rebound. It is recommended to short on rallies with caution [43][48].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about industry investment ratings in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Cotton is under pressure. The current supply of cotton in China is tight, but new cotton in the new year is expected to be abundant, limiting the upside. The future cotton price is affected by the macro - situation, and it is advisable to hedge at the high point of the rebound this year [1]. - PTA is under pressure. With the digestion of macro - benefits, weakening supply - demand expectations, and low buying interest from downstream enterprises, the short - term domestic PTA market may continue to be under pressure [2][3]. - Ethylene glycol moves in a range. Although the cost side has declined and the supply - demand pattern is favorable, the price may correct due to the rapid short - term increase [3]. - Short - fiber moves in a range. The price rebounds due to raw material and supply factors, but considering the off - season and upstream device restart, the price is expected to be strong in the near term and weak in the long term [3]. - Sugar shows a weak oscillation. Internationally, Brazil has a production increase expectation; domestically, factors are mixed, and the sugar price is under pressure [4]. - Apples fluctuate at a high level. The inventory trading is stable, and with low inventory, the price is expected to maintain a high - level range - bound movement [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - As of the end of April, the commercial inventory was 415 million tons, and the industrial inventory was 95 million tons. By the end of August, the commercial inventory is expected to be 155 million tons, tighter than in 2023. New cotton in Xinjiang is expected to be 7.5 billion tons. The short - and medium - term upside is limited, affected by international negotiations. The future price depends on negotiation results [1]. - On May 26, the China Cotton Price Index was 14,606 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the棉纱 index was 20,500 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. On May 26, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts were 11,691 (+5) sheets [8]. - In April, Argentina exported 3,209 tons of cotton, a decrease of about 9.1% month - on - month and 71% year - on - year. From August 2024 to July 2025, the cumulative export was about 74,000 tons, a decrease of 6.7% year - on - year [8]. - As of May 20, the non - commercial net long positions in ICE cotton futures and options decreased by 12,920; the non - commercial net long positions in futures alone decreased by 11,613; the commodity index fund net long positions increased by 22 [8]. PTA - As of the 20th, the PTA spot price was 4,855 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan. The polyester production cut dragged down sentiment, and the absolute price decreased. The capacity utilization rate rose to 78.38% due to the restart of Sichuan Energy Investment's device, and the downstream polyester industry capacity utilization rate was 89.98%, a decrease of 0.42% from last Friday. The comprehensive supply - demand de - stocking slowed down, and the polyester production and sales rate was 34.1%, a decrease of 1.2% from the previous trading day [2][3]. - As of May 22, the average PTA processing interval was 400.19 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.38% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.33%. The domestic PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate reached 77.22%, a month - on - month increase of 1.49% and a year - on - year increase of 5.39% [9]. Ethylene Glycol - The cost side has declined due to the drop in international oil prices. Domestic maintenance has increased significantly, and imports are at a low level. The demand side maintains a high operating rate, but the price may correct [3]. - China's total ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate was 55.38%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.66%. The weekly output was 332,900 tons, a decrease of 9.28% from last week [14]. Short - fiber - The price rebounds due to rising raw materials and reduced supply, but the support from crude oil weakens, and downstream orders are not improving significantly. Considering the off - season and upstream device restart, the price is expected to be strong in the near term and weak in the long term [3]. - As of the 8th, the domestic short - fiber weekly output was 161,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5,500 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 85.33%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.91%. The average polymerization cost was 5,728 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%, and the industry cash flow was - 307 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 86.41% [11]. Sugar - Internationally, Brazil's sugar production in April decreased year - on - year, but there is a production increase expectation. Domestically, factors are mixed, with both supportive and pressure factors [4]. - The USDA expects the global sugar production in the 2025/26 season to increase by 8.6 million tons to 189.3 million tons. The domestic sugar sales quota in May 2025 was 2.35 million tons, the same as last month and down 350,000 tons year - on - year. The 2024/25 sugar - making season in Yunnan ended, and the output is expected to reach a record high of about 2.4 million tons [10][12]. Apples - The inventory trading is stable, with different situations in different regions. The sales in the sales area are okay, and with low inventory, the price is expected to maintain a high - level range - bound movement [5]. - As of May 21, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory was 1.7085 million tons, a decrease of 242,500 tons from last week [13].

Report Overview - Report Title: Yangtze River Futures Urea & Methanol Weekly Report - Report Date: May 26, 2025 - Researcher: Cao Xuemei, Zhang Ying 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views Urea - Urea trading logic has returned to short - term supply - demand game after the digestion of export news, with prices falling from high levels. The price of the Urea 2509 contract on May 23 was 1827 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from last week. Spot prices also declined [7][12]. - Supply remains high, with a national urea开工负荷率 of 87.84% and a daily output of 20.36 tons. Coal prices are under pressure, and demand from the compound fertilizer and other industrial sectors is weak. Overall production and sales have weakened, and prices may continue to decline weakly, with an operation range of 1770 - 1870 yuan/ton [7]. Methanol - Methanol prices have continued to fall. The price of the Methanol 09 contract on May 23 was 2222 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan/ton from last week, and the spot price in Taicang also decreased [8][39]. - Supply is relatively abundant, with a capacity utilization rate of 87.04%. The arrival volume has recovered, and downstream demand is weak. However, due to the limited inventory pressure on enterprises, the decline in methanol prices is expected to slow down, with an operation range of 2200 - 2350 yuan/ton for the 09 contract [8]. 3. Summary by Directory Urea Market Changes - The price of the Urea 2509 contract on May 23 was 1827 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from last week. The daily average price in the Henan market was 1868 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton, and in the Shandong market was 1877 yuan/ton, down 88 yuan/ton [7][12]. Supply - The national urea开工负荷率 was 87.84%, with a gas - head enterprise开工负荷率 of 74.98%, basically flat from last week. The daily output was 20.36 tons. A maintenance device in Xinjiang is expected to resume next week, and the daily output is expected to increase slightly [16]. Cost and Profit - Anthracite prices are weakly stable, with the price of S0.4 - 0.5 anthracite washed small pieces in Jincheng, Shanxi at 930 - 980 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from last week. The gross profit margin of coal - based urea is 5.56%, and that of gas - based urea is - 4.56% [19]. Demand - The average pre - collection days of major urea producers are 4.2 days, and the weekly production - sales rate is 95.4%. Agricultural demand is moderately following up, the compound fertilizer industry's start - up has decreased, and the start - up of downstream products such as melamine has also declined slightly [21]. - As of May 22, there is still some unmet fertilizer demand for rice and corn. The capacity operation rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 37.57%, down 2.69 percentage points from last week, and the inventory is 76.26 tons, down 1.25 tons [26][29]. - The start - up rate of the melamine industry is 63.95%, down 6 percentage points, and the weekly output is 3.15 tons. The demand support from the board market has weakened [32]. Inventory - Urea enterprise inventory is 66.8 tons, up 0.5 tons from last week, and port inventory is 20.3 tons, up 3.5 tons. The number of registered warrants is 7548, equivalent to 15.096 tons of urea, an increase of 193 warrants (0.386 tons) from last week [36]. Methanol Market Changes - The price of the Methanol 09 contract on May 23 was 2222 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan/ton from last week. The spot price in Taicang was 2278 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton [8][39]. Supply - The capacity utilization rate of methanol plants is 87.04%, down 1.43 percentage points from last week. Some plants in Inner Mongolia and Sichuan have restarted, and the arrival volume is expected to be 9.7 tons, an increase of 2.5 tons from last week [45]. Cost and Profit - Coal supply may tighten slightly, but inventory at all levels is high, and the decline in thermal coal prices is expected to slow down. The weekly profit of coal - based methanol is 57 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan/ton from last week; that of natural - gas - based methanol is 37 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton; and that of coke - oven - gas - based methanol is 351 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton [48]. Demand - The start - up rate of the methanol - to - olefins industry is 83.82%, up 1.51 percentage points. The demand from the main downstream is relatively stable, but the traditional demand is in the off - season. Some acetic acid plants are under maintenance, and there are shutdown projects in BDO and dimethyl ether, so the demand support for methanol is limited [52]. Inventory - The inventory of sample methanol enterprises is 23.52 tons, down 3.84 tons from last week, and the port inventory is 49.04 tons, up 0.65 tons [57].

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 05 月 26 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 防守观望 | | ◆国债： | 震荡上行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 待价格充分回调后，逢低建仓 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆纯碱： | 观望。 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆塑料： | 震荡运行 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡反弹 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 区间震荡 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆玉米： | 区间【2300， ...

宏观扰动减弱 有色金属继续震荡运行 有色金属基础周报 2025-05-26 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 有色中心】 研究员：李 旎 执业编号：F3085657 投资咨询号: Z0017083 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 联系人：张 桓 执业编号：F03138663 | C | 不长沉试券 WILL HIT | S B 长江湖景 | | --- | --- | --- | | | CHANGJIANG SECURITIES | CHANGJIANG FUTURES | 走势状态 行情观点 操作建议 | | | 宏观扰动减弱，但美方不断施压，中美仍在博弈，关税问题上反复的可能性仍存。基本面上，刚果（金）卡库拉部分地区因地震因素开采作业短期 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 高位偏强震荡 | 暂停，巴拿马铜矿则复产前景不明，矿端干扰仍在持续。铜精矿现货TC跌至-44美元/吨一线有所企稳，冶炼厂成本压力限制了价格进一步下行空 | | | 铜 | 76000-79500 | 间 ...

Report Overview - Report Name: Yangtze River Futures PTA Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: May 26, 2025 - Research Team: Cotton Spinning Team - Analysts: Hong Runxia, Huang Shanghai - Contacts: Zhong Zhou, Gu Zhenxiang 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term supply and demand of the PTA industry are acceptable, and prices will fluctuate within a range [25]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - PX: Last week, domestic PX production was 644,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.31%, and the weekly average capacity utilization rate was 76.83%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24%. Due to the continuous decline in downstream polyester start - up, PX destocking slowed down. With the weakening support from the cost - end crude oil, PX prices gradually declined [2]. - PTA: Last week, PTA prices fluctuated and declined. The cost - end international oil prices weakened due to the expected increase in production. On the supply side, PTA start - up increased slightly, while downstream polyester load decreased slightly. PTA destocking continued, and the short - term fundamentals still had some support [2]. - Ethylene Glycol: Last week, ethylene glycol prices fluctuated and declined. At the beginning, due to the decrease in domestic production and imported arrivals, domestic ethylene glycol prices continued to rise. However, due to downstream enterprises' resistance to high - priced goods and the expected decline in cost - end oil prices, the short - term price maintained a volatile operation [2]. - Short - fiber: Last week, short - fiber prices fluctuated following the raw material prices. At the beginning, affected by the decline in the raw material end, short - fiber prices declined. Then, due to producers and traders being bearish on the future market and willing to sell at low prices, the spot and futures prices were dragged down. However, due to the tight liquidity of some goods, the decline was limited [2]. 3.2 Spot Analysis - As of May 22, the PTA spot price was 4,922 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 yuan or 0.04%. As of the 23rd, the PTA spot price increased by 20 to 4,880 yuan/ton. There was a game between cost and demand, and the market was re - balancing future supply and demand. The absolute price fluctuated at the lower end, the spot basis was relatively strong, and the trading on the trading side was active, with overall quiet trading [4][6]. 3.3 PTA Upstream - Crude oil: As of May 21, the WTI price was $61.57 per barrel, a decrease of 0.08% from May 15; the Brent price was $64.91 per barrel, an increase of 0.59% from May 15. The main influencing factors were the ongoing differences in the US - Iran nuclear negotiations, the possible Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, the improved market expectations for demand prospects, as well as the easing of the Russia - Ukraine situation and the increase in US commercial crude oil inventories [7]. - PX: The domestic PX production last week was 644,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.31%. The domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization rate was 76.83%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24%. The spread between PX and naphtha and the spread between PX and MX increased. Due to the unplanned load reduction or shutdown of some enterprises, the spot tightness of PX continued, and the spot purchasing power increased. As of May 21, the average PX - N was $268.47 per ton, a week - on - week increase of $22.05 per ton, and the average PX - M was $110.37 per ton, a week - on - week increase of $8.95 per ton [9]. 3.4 PTA Supply - Last week, the domestic PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate reached 77.22%, a week - on - week increase of 1.49% and a year - on - year increase of 5.39%. Zhongtai Chemical restarted, and Jiayun's No. 2 line was shut down for maintenance near the weekend. Overall, the domestic capacity utilization rate increased slightly [15]. 3.5 Ethylene Glycol Supply - China's total ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate was 55.38%, a week - on - week decrease of 5.66%. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of integrated plants was 55.59%, a week - on - week decrease of 6.39%; the capacity utilization rate of coal - based ethylene glycol was 55%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.42%. China's weekly ethylene glycol production was 332,900 tons, a decrease of 9.28% from the previous week [17]. 3.6 Downstream Demand - Last week, China's polyester industry's weekly production was 1,584,900 tons, an increase of 160 tons or 0.1% from the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of the polyester industry was 90.63%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3%. The different trends of production and capacity utilization were mainly due to the maintenance of some polyester factories during the week, but the inclusion of Xin Fengming's new plant at the end of last week and the increased load of Xin Fengming and Hengyi's new plants this week [22]. 3.7 Terminal Weaving - Last week, the comprehensive start - up rate of major domestic weaving production bases was 57.65%, the same as the previous week. The start - up rates of different types of looms varied. Currently, the tail orders of domestic summer clothing fabrics are being gradually delivered, and subsequent orders are declining. With unclear new foreign trade orders, the off - season atmosphere in the market is becoming more obvious, and the inventory of grey fabrics has slightly increased. The local market still mainly consists of small - batch orders, and the sustainability of the overall order quantity remains to be observed [24]. 3.8 Market Outlook - PX: Affected by the expected increase in crude oil production, the cost support weakened. With the continued maintenance of domestic and overseas plants, it is expected that the weekly PX production will increase slightly, and PX prices will continue to fluctuate strongly [25]. - PTA: With the weak support from crude oil at the cost end, although some plants are planned to restart, overall production will increase. Downstream polyester load decreases slightly, and the destocking of supply and demand slows down. It is expected that PTA prices will fluctuate in the range of 4,650 - 4,900 yuan/ton [25]. - Ethylene Glycol: With the weak international crude oil prices and weak cost support, and considering the supply - demand pattern, it is expected that ethylene glycol prices will fluctuate in the range of 4,350 - 4,500 yuan/ton [25]. - Short - fiber: With the decline in PTA prices at the raw material end and the narrowing of processing fees, and the weak terminal demand, it is expected that short - fiber market prices will fluctuate and consolidate within a range [25]. 3.9 Strategy Suggestion - Enterprises should conduct hedging based on costs.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Views - **Pig**: Supply pressure is gradually being released, and futures prices are oscillating at a low level. In the short - term, there is a game between supply and demand, and pig prices are supported at a low level with intensified oscillations. In the medium - to - long - term, under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, pig prices still face a risk of decline [4][50]. - **Egg**: Hen culling has accelerated, and the support for the futures market has strengthened. In the short - term, the Dragon Boat Festival may boost egg prices, but high supply and weather conditions will put pressure on prices. In the medium - term, the supply is expected to increase. In the long - term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter may ease [5][74]. - **Corn**: The end of grass - roots grain sales has strengthened the support for the futures market. In the short - term, the spot price has support. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand relationship is tightening, which drives prices up, but the upside space is limited due to substitutes [6][99]. 3. Summary by Variety Pig 3.1.1. Period and Spot Ends - As of May 23, the national spot price was 14.35 yuan/kg, down 0.41 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 14.59 yuan/kg, down 0.32 yuan/kg from last week; the futures price of pig 2509 was 13,515 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan/ton from last week; the 09 - contract basis was 1,075 yuan/ton, down 175 yuan/ton from last week [4][50]. 3.1.2. Supply End - From May to November 2024, the inventory of breeding sows increased steadily, and performance improved. In the case of stable epidemics, the supply from May to September 2025 showed an increasing trend. Although the breeding profit declined and the production capacity was reduced, the overall reduction was limited. In May 2025, the planned slaughter volume of key provincial enterprises and large - scale enterprises increased month - on - month [4][50]. 3.1.3. Demand End - It is currently the off - season for consumption. With the hot weather, terminal consumption is mediocre, and the slaughtering enterprise's operating rate remains low. Although there is inventory demand before the Dragon Boat Festival, the increase in slaughter volume is limited due to the losses of slaughtering enterprises [4][50]. 3.1.4. Cost End - The weekly piglet price decreased slightly, the price of binary breeding sows was stable, and the breeding profits of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets decreased slightly [4][50]. 3.1.5. Weekly Summary - In the short - term, there is a game between supply and demand, and pig prices are supported at a low level with intensified oscillations. In the medium - to - long - term, under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, pig prices still face a risk of decline [4][50]. 3.1.6. Strategy Suggestion - Do not chase short positions. Wait for a rebound and then go short at high levels. For the 07 contract, the pressure level is 13,700 - 13,800, and the support level is lowered to 13,000 - 13,100; for the 09 contract, the pressure level is 14,000 - 14,200, and the support level is 13,300 - 13,400. Sell out - of - the - money call options on the 09 contract after a rebound [4][50]. Egg 3.2.1. Period and Spot Ends - As of May 23, the average price in the main egg - producing areas was 2.98 yuan/jin, down 0.28 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main egg - selling areas was 2.88 yuan/jin, down 0.5 yuan/jin from last Friday. The main egg futures contract 2507 closed at 2,966 yuan/500 kg, down 15 yuan/500 kg from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was - 346 yuan/500 kg, 205 yuan/500 kg weaker than last Friday [5][74]. 3.2.2. Supply End - The newly - opened laying hens in May corresponded to the chicks supplemented in January 2025, with a large number of new layers. Some breeding enterprises chose to cull hens, and the supply pressure was slightly relieved, but the market supply was still relatively sufficient. In the long - term, the high number of chicks supplemented from February to April 2025 will lead to more newly - opened laying hens from June to August 2025 [5][74]. 3.2.3. Demand End - As the Dragon Boat Festival approaches, low egg prices may stimulate terminal demand, but high temperatures and humidity in the south are not conducive to egg storage, and the demand for driving up egg prices is relatively limited [5][74]. 3.2.4. Weekly Summary - In the short - term, the Dragon Boat Festival may boost egg prices, but high supply and weather conditions will put pressure on prices. In the medium - term, the supply is expected to increase. In the long - term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter may ease [5][74]. 3.2.5. Strategy Suggestion - Be cautious about short - chasing the 07 contract after June. For the 08 and 09 contracts, take a bearish view and wait for a rebound to go short. Pay attention to the 3,750 - 3,800 pressure level for the 08 contract. Look for long opportunities for the 10 contract at low levels [5][74]. Corn 3.3.1. Period and Spot Ends - As of May 23, the closing price of corn at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2,310 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last Friday. The main corn futures contract 2507 closed at 2,327 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from last Friday. The main contract basis was - 17 yuan/ton, 2 yuan/ton weaker than last Friday [6][99]. 3.3.2. Supply End - As the price rises to a high level, traders' willingness to sell increases, and the market supply increases. However, grass - roots grain sales are basically over, and traders are firm in their asking prices. The current inventory in the north and south ports is in the process of depletion, which supports the spot price. In April, corn imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [6][99]. 3.3.3. Demand End - The increase in livestock and poultry inventory drives up feed demand, but the narrowing price difference between corn and wheat has led to an increase in the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing wheat, squeezing the feed demand for corn. Deep - processing enterprises are in a loss state, with a decline in the operating rate and limited incremental demand [6][99]. 3.3.4. Weekly Summary - In the short - term, the reduction of grass - roots grain sources provides support for prices. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand relationship is tightening, which drives prices up, but the upside space is limited due to substitutes [6][99]. 3.3.5. Strategy Suggestion - Take a moderately bullish view in the general direction. The 07 contract oscillates at a high level (2,300 - 2,360), and go long at the lower edge of the range. Pay attention to the 7 - 9 calendar spread arbitrage [6][99].

碳酸锂周报 供大于求延续，价格上方承压 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部|有色中心】 资深研究员：李 旎 执业编号：F3085657 投资咨询号: Z0017083 2025/5/26 01 周度观点 ⚫ 策略建议： 从供应端来看，4月国内碳酸锂产量环比减少9%，近期锂盐厂稳定生产，4月锂精矿进口量环比增加16.5%，4月锂盐进口环比增 加56%，预计后续南美锂盐进口量保持高位，对供应形成补充。从需求端来看，受储能和电动车终端增速的带动，下游需求较好，但 美国对等关税政策落地对锂电池出口形成负面影响，二季度存在储能电芯抢出口需求。盐湖产量增加，矿石提锂企业减产，整体供应 稳定，5月正极厂商排产环比持平，短期需求增速不及供给。电芯厂采购偏弱，集中投产背景下供应压力大，现货供应趋于宽松。下 游电池库存累库，电池厂长协客供比例提高，预计碳酸锂价格仍然承压。当前矿端减产情况对整体供应影响有限，碳酸锂进口供应预 期增加，随着供强需弱局面未改善，预计价格延续偏弱震荡局面，建议持逢高沽空思路，建议持续关注上游企业减产情况和正极材料 厂排产情况。 资料来源：IFIND、SMM ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal market maintains a pattern of loose supply and demand, with limited upside potential for price rebounds. The soybean oil market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to the game of multiple long and short factors, and there is a strong expectation of inventory accumulation in the future. The palm oil market is also expected to oscillate in the short - term, and the inventory is expected to gradually accumulate. The rapeseed oil market will likely oscillate in the short - term, and the inventory is expected to gradually decrease if the supply tightens as expected [5][93] Summary by Directory 1. Soybean Meal a. Periodic and Spot - Futures End - As of May 23, the East China spot price was 2900 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week. The M2509 contract closed at 2952 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis was 09 - 50 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton week - on - week. The increase in soybean arrivals and the rise in oil mill operating rates led to a weakening of spot prices, but the market rebounded from the bottom, limiting the decline in spot prices. The basis continued to weaken [5][7] b. Supply End - The May UDSA report on US soybeans lowered the carry - over stocks for the 2025/26 season by 295 million bushels, providing strong support for US soybeans. Currently, the weather in the US soybean - growing areas is favorable, and as of May 16, 66% of the sowing has been completed, suppressing the upside of US soybean prices. Brazil's supply is increasing, and the price is weak, but there is strong support below. Globally, soybean production is abundant, and the price is weak under the pattern of loose supply and demand. In China, the pressure of soybean arrivals from May to July is still high, and the supply - demand situation is gradually becoming loose. In the long - term, Sino - US trade frictions may lead to an increase in import costs and a decrease in supply, and domestic soybeans will enter a de - stocking cycle after September [5] c. Demand End - In 2025, the pig inventory is expected to increase by 4%. With the high cost - performance of soybean meal and the advantage of the pig - grain price ratio, the demand for soybean meal in feed is expected to increase by more than 4% year - on - year. As of May 16, the national soybean inventory in oil mills rose to 5.8683 million tons, a 9.71% increase from the previous week and a 33.95% increase year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory continued to rise slightly to 121,700 tons, a 20.26% increase from the previous week and an 80.47% decrease year - on - year [5] d. Cost End - The planting cost of US soybeans in the 24/25 season is 1030 cents/bushel, and the cost of new - crop soybeans in Brazil is 915 cents/bushel. Calculated according to the exchange rate of 7.2, the premium of 140 cents, and the oil - meal ratio of 2.6, the cost of domestic soybean meal from May to July during the Brazilian soybean supply season is 2850 yuan/ton, and it rises to 2970 yuan/ton from August to September. The overall crushing profit is maintained between 0 yuan/ton and 50 yuan/ton, at a high level in the same period of history [5] e. Market Summary and Strategy - With the low carry - over stocks of new - crop US soybeans, the bottom support for US soybeans is strengthened. As the key growing period approaches, the probability of a rebound from the low level increases. From May to July in China, the arrivals increase, and the soybean and soybean meal inventories enter an accumulation cycle, with prices weakening due to loose supply - demand. In the medium - to - long - term, the cost increases and the strong expectation remains unchanged. It is recommended that in the short - term, the M2509 operate in the range of [2850, 3000], and enterprises can conduct basis point pricing on dips and sell on rallies. In the medium - to - long - term, go long at the lower edge of the range [5] 2. Oils a. Periodic and Spot - Futures End - As of the week of May 23, the palm oil main 09 contract rose 22 yuan/ton to 8006 yuan/ton, the soybean oil main 09 contract rose 20 yuan/ton to 7774 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil main 09 contract rose 114 yuan/ton to 9391 yuan/ton. In terms of spot, the 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou rose 50 yuan/ton to 8600 yuan/ton, the fourth - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang fell 70 yuan/ton to 8120 yuan/ton, and the fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Fangchenggang rose 100 yuan/ton to 9410 yuan/ton. The basis of palm oil in Guangzhou rose 28 yuan/ton to 594 yuan/ton, the basis of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang fell 90 yuan/ton to 346 yuan/ton, and the basis of rapeseed oil in Fangchenggang fell 14 yuan/ton to 19 yuan/ton [93][95] b. Palm Oil - The MPOB April report showed that the Malaysian palm oil inventory increased to 1.87 million tons, higher than market expectations, which was bearish. In May, the month - on - month growth rate of Malaysian palm oil exports gradually declined. However, the increase in production also slowed down significantly. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, attention should be paid to whether the inventory accumulation rate in May will slow down. Indonesia raised the export tax in June, while Malaysia lowered it. It is expected that Malaysian palm oil will oscillate in the short - term, with the 08 contract operating in the range of 3800 - 4000. In China, palm oil arrivals will increase significantly from May, and the inventory has stopped falling and rebounded to 359,700 tons, and is expected to continue to accumulate slowly [93] c. Soybean Oil - The EPA denied the news of a 1.36 - billion - gallon biofuel blending exemption for small refineries, and the biodiesel policy turned positive again. The excessive rainfall in the core soybean - growing areas of Argentina and the heavy rainfall forecast in the US Midwest may provide support for US soybean prices. However, Trump's proposal to impose a 50% tariff on EU goods on June 1st, the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy, and the pressure of the old - crop soybean harvest in South America limit the upside of US soybean prices. It is expected that the US soybean 07 contract will oscillate in the range of 1050 - 1080 in the short - term. In China, the monthly average soybean arrivals from May to July are expected to reach about 10 million tons, and the soybean oil inventory has stopped falling and rebounded to 656,300 tons, with a strong expectation of inventory accumulation in the future [93] d. Rapeseed Oil - The crushing and export demand for Canadian rapeseed in the 24/25 season remain strong, and the inventory of old - crop rapeseed continues to decline. The sowing of new - crop rapeseed in Canada is accelerating, and there are no obvious weather problems for now. The US House of Representatives passed the revised 45Z bill, which is beneficial to the demand for rapeseed - based biodiesel. It is expected that ICE rapeseed will oscillate in the short - term. In China, the rapeseed oil inventory is at a historically high level of 870,000 tons, with a large short - term supply pressure. However, the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed is still ongoing, and the arrivals of rapeseed in the second quarter are expected to be halved year - on - year. If the supply tightens as expected, the inventory is expected to gradually decrease [93] e. Weekly Summary and Strategy - Currently, the fundamentals of the oil market have no prominent long - short contradictions, and the short - term trend is oscillatory. In the medium - to - long - term, the arrivals of soybeans and palm oil will increase in June, dragging down the overall oil market. In the third quarter, due to the decrease in the sowing area of new - crop soybeans and rapeseed in North America and possible weather speculation, the oil market is expected to stop falling and rebound. It is recommended to pay attention to the operating ranges of 7500 - 8000, 7800 - 8200, and 9200 - 9500 for the 09 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil respectively, and be cautious about shorting on rallies. In terms of arbitrage, the strategy of widening the spread between the 09 contracts of soybean - palm oil and rapeseed - palm oil can be followed in the long - term [93]