Investment consulting business qualification: CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 China Zinc Futures Research Framework 中国锌期货研究框架 2025/12/3 More English Reports on 【CITIC Futures International Service Platform】 https://internationalservice.citicsf.com Gui Chenxi 桂晨曦 CFA PhD Qualification No. F3023159 从业资格号 Investment consulting No. Z0013632 投资咨询号 Shen Zhaoming 沈照明 Qualification No. F3074367 从业资格号 Investment consulting No. Z0015479 投资咨询号 Zheng Feifan 郑非凡 Qualification No. F03088415 从业资格号 Inve ...

丁二烯出口消息带动盘面大幅上行 th 魏宇 究 从业资格号:F03114822 员 投资咨询号: Z0022428 价格表现 昨日BR主力合约大幅上行,截至收盘涨幅3.64%,创下了今年下半年以来单日最大涨幅。 行情点评 昨日上午. 受丁二烯出口消息提振,BR盘面快速冲高,日内维持偏强运行,而我们认为主要驱动更多来自价格绝对低位后情绪释 放,而并非基本面的改善预期。 我国丁二烯产能今年正常释放,叠加今年海外需求偏弱,报价相对较低,使得国内1-10月进口量已经创下新高。整体供应压力不 俗也是导致10月份后,BR盘面跟随丁二烯报价快速下行的权本原因。但在创下上市新低后,伴随着丁二烯成交转暖，报价企稳, 以及来自天胶端的支撑,盘面对利多消息的敏感度显著提升。而本次丁二烯出口消息就是最好的印证。 通常来说,我国丁二烯出口代表着海外需求回暖,报价提高,并给出国内出口套利机会。若出口套利窗口得以维持,那么将会显 著缓解国内供给压力,助推国内丁二烯价格上涨,并最终从成本的角度带动BR盘面走高。截至今年1-10月,我国丁二烯出口月均 仅有2400吨，总量较低，所以本次出口消息提供了后续可能还能继续出口的预期，给予了盘面较强的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, positive macro expectations and supply disruption concerns have led to an upward drive in the non - ferrous metals market. Opportunities to go long on copper, aluminum, and tin can be continuously monitored. In the long term, with the expectation of potential incremental stimulus policies in China and ongoing supply disruption issues for copper, aluminum, and tin, there are expectations of tightening supply - demand, and the price trends of copper, aluminum, and tin are optimistic [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **View**: CSPT's agreement on joint production cuts will cause copper prices to fluctuate strongly. - **Information Analysis**: Codelco is raising the annual premium for refined copper sold to Chinese customers. CSPT has reached a consensus to reduce the capacity utilization of ore - copper by over 10% in 2026. In November, SMM China's electrolytic copper production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. On December 2, the spot price of 1 electrolytic copper showed a premium, and copper inventory decreased [7][8]. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is rising. There are continuous supply disruptions in copper mines, and CSPT's production cut plan strengthens the expectation of supply contraction. Although demand is in the off - season, the market expects a tight supply - demand situation for refined copper next year [8]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **View**: The oversupply situation has not improved significantly, and alumina prices will continue to be under pressure. - **Information Analysis**: Alumina spot prices remained stable in most regions on December 2. The willingness of futures - cash merchants to sell warehouse receipts is strong. On December 2, the alumina warehouse receipts remained unchanged [9][10]. - **Main Logic**: Macroeconomic sentiment amplifies price fluctuations. High - cost production capacity has some fluctuations, but the actual supply contraction needs to be observed. The domestic market is still in a strong inventory - building trend, and raw material prices are weak, so the alumina price is under pressure [11]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **View**: Macroeconomic sentiment is volatile, and aluminum prices will fluctuate and rise. - **Information Analysis**: On December 2, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased slightly, and the premium remained unchanged. Aluminum rod and electrolytic aluminum ingot inventories decreased. An Australian rescue plan aims to prevent a smelter from closing, and new Indonesian aluminum plants are in operation [12]. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of interest rate cuts has increased, and the dollar index is under pressure. The domestic economy is weakly stable. The supply side has high domestic operating capacity and overseas power shortages. The demand side is stable, and inventory is decreasing. Overall, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term and may rise in the medium term [13]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **View**: With strong cost support, the market will fluctuate and rise. - **Information Analysis**: On December 2, the price of ADC12 remained unchanged. The price difference between ADC12 and AOO aluminum changed. The registered warehouse receipts decreased. In October, the import volume of scrap aluminum increased year - on - year [14][15][16]. - **Main Logic**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, providing strong cost support. The weekly operating rate has increased, but some alloy plants face production cut risks. Demand is marginally improving, and inventory is rising. In the short and medium terms, prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [15]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **View**: With the export window open, zinc prices will fluctuate at a high level. - **Information Analysis**: On December 2, the spot premiums of zinc in different regions varied. As of December 2, zinc ingot inventory decreased. A mine in Australia postponed high - grade zinc ore mining due to an earthquake [18]. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December is rising. In the short term, zinc ore supply has loosened, and smelters' profitability is good. The export window has opened, but demand is in the off - season. In the short term, zinc prices will fluctuate at a high level, and there is a risk of decline in the long term [18]. 3.1.6 Lead - **View**: With the reduction of social inventory, lead prices may continue to rebound in the short term. - **Information Analysis**: On December 2, the price of scrap electric vehicle batteries and the price difference between primary and secondary lead remained unchanged. The price of lead ingots increased, and the premium was stable. Lead ingot inventory decreased, and some smelters were under maintenance [19]. - **Main Logic**: The spot premium and price difference are stable, and warehouse receipts are decreasing. Production has decreased due to smelter maintenance, and demand from battery enterprises is improving. Lead prices are expected to fluctuate [20]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **View**: With the easing of the supply side in Indonesia, nickel prices will fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: On December 2, LME and Shanghai nickel inventories decreased. An Indonesian company plans to focus on three HPAL projects next year. GreenMeiBang's nickel project is in normal production [21][22]. - **Main Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market, and the static valuation is stable. The supply of nickel ore is relatively loose, and the production of intermediate products has recovered. Nickel salt prices are slightly weaker, and inventory has accumulated significantly. Nickel prices will fluctuate [23]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **View**: With the stable price of nickel - iron, the stainless - steel market will fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts decreased. On December 2, the spot premium of stainless steel in Foshan was positive. The average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged. GreenMeiBang's nickel project is in normal production [24]. - **Main Logic**: The prices of nickel - iron and chromium have declined, weakening cost support. After the peak season, production and demand have decreased, and inventory is accumulating. Stainless - steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [25][26]. 3.1.9 Tin - **View**: With continuous supply concerns, tin prices will fluctuate at a high level. - **Information Analysis**: On December 2, LME tin warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and Shanghai tin warehouse receipts increased. The average price of 1 tin ingots decreased [26]. - **Main Logic**: The supply of tin is a core concern. The resumption of production in the Wa State's mining area is slow, and Indonesian exports are restricted. The supply of tin ore is tight, and demand from semiconductor, photovoltaic, and new - energy vehicle industries is increasing. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [26]. 3.2行情监测 3.2.1 Commodity Index - On December 2, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index of CITICS Futures all showed slight declines, with changes of - 0.01%, - 0.00%, and - 0.03% respectively [151]. 3.2.2 Special Index No relevant content provided. 3.2.3 Sector Index - On December 2, 2025, the non - ferrous metals index was 2512.54, with a daily decline of - 0.07%, a 5 - day increase of + 1.84%, a 1 - month increase of + 1.86%, and a year - to - date increase of + 8.85% [153].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-12-03 俄罗斯海上原油量持续攀升，甲醇关注 12⽉的进⼝压⼒ 化工品近期的反弹开始略显迟疑。甲醇在海外限气的提振下，近期期 价反弹；同时前期较高的开工导致伊朗11月装船量再创历史新高，12月可 能出现非伊甲醇减量，伊朗货源依旧充足的情况，12月甲醇的进口压力依 旧较大。而烯烃端也没有实质性利好。资金换月和原油反弹短暂拉升了烯 烃价格，但生产企业仍以去库存为核心导向，通过下调出厂价、加大促销 力度等方式积极去库；需求端则以刚需为主，并未有投机性囤货举措。 原油：地缘溢价摇摆，供应压力延续 沥青：沥青期价大跌，测试2800重要支撑位 高硫燃油：燃油期价弱势震荡 低硫燃油：低硫燃油期价弱势震荡 甲醇：12月沿海卸货预期偏高，内地供需阶段性支撑，甲醇震荡整理 尿素：淡储推进暂缓，盘面震荡整理 乙二醇：国内供应阶段性见顶，但海外货源供应充裕 PX：供需双强，叠加市场预期偏强下利润持续扩张 PTA：现货市场氛围改善，基差偏强运行 短纤：下游维持观望居多，持续追涨意愿不强 瓶片：价格波动率收窄，成交氛围小幅回落 丙烯：PG带动，P ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall market shows a weak performance in both stocks and bonds. The stock index futures experience a pullback in hot sectors, the implied volatility of stock index options fluctuates at a low level, and the bond market remains weak in the short - term but is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the medium - term [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Views - **Stock Index Futures**: On Tuesday, the sentiment in the equity market was weak, with sectors like computer, media, and new energy leading the decline, and only the dividend index being resilient. The factors contributing to the pullback are the sharp decline of Bitcoin against the US dollar on December 1st and the historical value - oriented style in December. Although it's unlikely to fall below the November low, the market is expected to be volatile in December, being stable before major meetings and facing risks in the second half of December. The recommended operation is to hold IM + dividend [1][7]. - **Stock Index Options**: On Tuesday, the trading volume of financial options decreased, and the implied volatility of each variety showed differentiation. The skewness remained at a high level, and the PCR of open interest decreased slightly, indicating weak market sentiment. In the short - term, the implied volatility may remain low, and the recommended strategy is to hold covered or short - put strategies. In the long - term, the market is expected to rise in a volatile manner, and it's advisable to pay attention to the layout window of far - month call options [2][7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On the previous day, treasury bond futures closed lower across the board, and the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally increased. The central bank's net withdrawal of 145.8 billion yuan through 7 - day reverse repurchase had a stabilizing effect on the short - end of the bond market. The sharp decline of Vanke bonds and the non - exceeding - expected net investment of 50 billion yuan in treasury bond trading in November by the central bank were negative factors. However, the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading may boost market sentiment, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. The recommended strategies include trend, hedging, basis, and curve strategies [3][7][8]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - China's SPGI manufacturing PMI in November was 49.9, lower than the previous value of 50.9 and the forecast value of 50.5. The SPGI services PMI for November and other data are yet to be released. In the US, the ISM manufacturing PMI in November was 48.2, lower than the previous value of 48.7 and the forecast value of 49. Other data such as the ADP employment change and ISM non - manufacturing PMI for November are also pending release [9]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - The director of the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to strengthen the domestic cycle, build a strong domestic market, and promote the coordinated resolution of risks in real estate, local government debt, and small and medium - sized financial institutions [9]. - As of December 1st, 27 provinces in China have fully implemented the direct payment of maternity allowances to individuals. - Six major state - owned banks and some other banks have stopped selling 5 - year large - denomination certificates of deposit, and the term structure of large - denomination certificates of deposit has become "short - term" [10]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions data monitoring for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not presented in the provided content.

中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-12-3 宽松预期持续利好，⽩银⾼位波动加⼤ 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 重点资讯： 1）据有"新美联储通讯社"之称的《华尔街日报》记者Nick Timira os报道，尽管美联储主席候选人面试仍在进行中，但特朗普总统似乎 已倾向于选择长期顾问哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）担任这一职位。此 次任命可能成为特朗普第二任期最重要的人事决策。 据知情人士透 露，哈塞特已向白宫和其他政府官员表示希望获得这一职位，并认为 自己是最佳候选人。 2）美国11月ISM制造业PMI指数下降0.5点至48.2，连续九个月低于 50的荣枯线，创下四个月来的最大萎缩。新订单指数降至自7月以来 最快的收缩速度，积压订单则创七个月最大降幅。 3）欧元区11月CPI初值同比升2.2%，预期升2.1%，10月终值升2.1%； 环比降0.3%，预期降0.3%，10月终值升0.2%。欧元区11月核心CPI初 值同比升2.4%，预期升2.5%，10月终值升2.4%；环比降0.4%，10月终 值升0.2%。欧元区10月失业率为6.4%，预期6.3%，前值从6.3%修正为 6.4%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall allocation idea for the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and the macro - environment is still friendly to risk assets. Investors are advised to maintain a balanced allocation, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals, and wait for opportunities to increase positions in stock indices on dips [5]. 3. Summary Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance of Various Futures - **Equity Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4535.8, down 0.43% daily, up 0.67% weekly and monthly, down 1.78% quarterly, and up 15.68% this year. The SSE 50 futures closed at 2971.4, down 0.50% daily, up 0.28% weekly and monthly, down 0.59% quarterly, and up 10.96% this year. The CSI 500 futures closed at 6982.2, up 0.11% weekly and monthly, down 4.23% quarterly, and up 22.65% this year. The CSI 1000 futures closed at 7239.6, down 0.652 daily, down 0.29% weekly and monthly, down 2.25% quarterly, and up 78.13% this year [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year treasury bond futures closed at 102.388, down 0.02% daily, up 0.01% weekly and monthly, up 0.10% quarterly, and down 0.57% this year. The 5 - year treasury bond futures closed at 105.77, down 0.07% daily, up 0.02% weekly and monthly, up 0.24% quarterly, and down 0.72% this year. The 10 - year treasury bond futures closed at 107.98, down 0.06% daily, up 0.04% weekly and monthly, up 0.42% quarterly, and down 0.87% this year. The 30 - year treasury bond futures closed at 113.89, down 0.42% daily, down 0.52% weekly and monthly, up 0.28% quarterly, and down 4.16% this year [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US Dollar Index was at 99.4081, unchanged daily, down 0.03% weekly and monthly, up 1.62% quarterly, and down 8.35% this year. The EUR/USD was at 1.1609, with 0 pips daily change, 8 pips weekly and monthly change, - 125 pips quarterly change, and 1256 pips annual change. The USD/JPY was at 155.483, with 0 pips daily change, down 0.44% weekly and monthly, down 1.09% this year [3]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate was 1.48, unchanged daily, down 2 bp weekly and monthly, up 3 bp quarterly, and down 27 bp this year. The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.84, up 0.8 bp daily, up 0.3 bp weekly and monthly, down 1.6 bp quarterly, and up 0.2 bp this year. The 10 - year US treasury bond yield was 4.09, up 7 bp daily and weekly, down 0.02 bp quarterly, and down 46 bp this year [3]. - **Shipping**: The European container shipping line closed at 1534.2, up 2.79% daily, up 4.23% weekly and monthly, down 6.61% quarterly, and down 32.02% this year [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold closed at 958.42, down 0.50% daily, up 0.47% weekly and monthly, up 9.31% quarterly, and up 55.18% this year. Silver closed at 13423, up 1.09% daily, up 5.47% weekly and monthly, up 22.61% quarterly, and up 79.69% this year [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper closed at 88920, down 0.40% daily, up 1.70% weekly and monthly, up 7.07% quarterly, and up 20.54% this year. Aluminum oxide closed at 2670, down 0.26% daily, down 1.37% weekly and monthly, down 6.90% quarterly, and down 44.34% this year [3]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Situation - **Overseas Macro**: The US economy is in a low - speed adjustment range, with consumption showing a K - shaped development and employment cooling. The expectation of interest rate cuts has shifted from "expectation guidance" to "data confirmation". The "Hassett transaction" has strengthened the market's re - evaluation of the future policy framework, and the global financial conditions have improved. Dollar liquidity is becoming the main line of major assets in the next quarter, and the market expects the Fed to discuss balance - sheet expansion around December [5]. - **Domestic Macro**: In October, the profit margin of industrial enterprises continued to be under pressure due to weak domestic demand. However, with the joint promotion of policy - based financial instruments and special bonds, the forward - looking indices of enterprise investment and recruitment have significantly rebounded, and the expectation has improved. In November, the manufacturing PMI rebounded, and both supply and demand improved marginally. The overall domestic economy maintains a weak and stable pattern, and the guiding role of policies on expectations is increasing [5]. 3.3 Asset Views - Overall, the overall allocation idea for the fourth quarter remains unchanged. The macro - environment is still friendly to risk assets. Investors are advised to maintain a balanced allocation, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals, and wait for opportunities to increase positions in stock indices on dips [5]. 3.4 View Highlights - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner as trading volume cannot support an upward attack. Stock index options are expected to move sideways as market sentiment is stable but volatility is differentiated. Treasury bond futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner as long - end sentiment remains weak [6]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to move sideways as geopolitical and trade tensions ease, leading to a phased adjustment in precious metals [6]. - **Shipping**: The European container shipping line is expected to move sideways as the peak season in the third quarter has passed and there is a lack of upward momentum. Steel products are expected to move sideways as the macro - environment is warm and the market is strong [6]. - **Black Building Materials**: Most products in this sector, such as coking coal, silicon iron, and manganese silicon, are expected to move sideways as the macro - sentiment is warm and the sector shows strong performance [6]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Copper, aluminum, and lead are expected to rise in a volatile manner, while nickel is expected to fall in a volatile manner. Other non - ferrous metals are mostly expected to move sideways [6]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PX, PTA, short - fiber, and other products are expected to rise in a volatile manner, while asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil are expected to fall in a volatile manner. Most other energy and chemical products are expected to move sideways [8]. - **Agriculture**: Pulp is expected to move sideways after a sharp rise, and other agricultural products such as cotton, sugar, and livestock products have different short - term outlooks, mostly in a sideways or sideways - down trend [8].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-12-3 纸浆大幅拉升，或因利空前期充分交易 油脂：近日棕油和豆油相对偏强 蛋白粕：内外盘期价震荡，豆菜粕价差或扩大 玉米/淀粉：东北华北价格分化，期货维持震荡 生猪：供应充裕，价格趋弱 天然橡胶：维持小幅震荡 合成橡胶：原料出口消息点燃市场激情，基本面变化不大 棉花：棉价持续反弹，套保压力限制上方空间 白糖：糖价震荡徘徊，供应压力边际增大 纸浆：期货大幅拉升，或因利空前期充分交易 双胶纸：原料端反弹，双胶纸向上修复 原木：原木反弹修复估值 风险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 农业团队 研究员： 刘高超 从业资格号：F3011329 投资咨询号：Z0012689 王聪颖 从业资格号：F0254714 投资咨询号：Z0002180 吴静雯 从业资格号：F3083970 投资咨询号：Z0016293 李艺华 从业资格号： F03086449 投资咨询号： Z0019380 程也 从业资格号： F03087739 投资咨询号： Z0019480 周重廷 从业资格号：F03093821 投资咨询号：Z0020578 刘 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-12-03 降息预期回温，关注铂低多机会 12⽉2⽇，GFEX铂主⼒合约收盘价为442.5元/克，跌幅2.57%；钯主⼒ 合约收盘价为374.25元/克，跌幅2.23%。 钯观点：现货短缺⽀撑价格，短线维持震荡⾛势 主要逻辑：当前俄罗斯地缘问题是钯供应的关键扰动因素，美国商务 部正在对从俄罗斯进口的未锻造钯进行调查，调查报告仍未发布。由 于对俄罗斯钯的制裁预期，市场上大量钯金流向美国，导致其他地区 钯金供应出现阶段性收紧。需求方面，钯金呈现显著的结构性压力。 综合来看，虽然钯长期供需趋松，但短期现货紧缺，叠加美联储再度 进入降息周期，钯价底部具备一定支撑。 展望：现货短缺及宏观环境偏好情况下，底部支撑较强，中长期仍受 自身供需基本面偏弱压制，预计将宽幅震荡。 ⻛险提⽰：全球经济衰退；美联储货币政策变化；俄罗斯地缘冲突变 化；主产区供应扰动。 有⾊与新材料团队 铂观点：降息预期回温，关注低多机会 主要逻辑：受金银回调带动，铂金今日盘面有所下挫。宏观方面，近 期美国公布经济数据偏弱叠加美联储官员鸽派发言，12月降息预期抬 升， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating" [8] Core View of the Report - The macro - environment is warm with the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December and overseas interest - rate cut expectations, but the steel inventory is still high year - on - year, and demand faces weakening pressure, so the steel futures market has limited upward momentum. Iron ore is supported by winter storage expectations, coal - coke spot prices are weak due to demand pressure, and the supply - demand surplus of glass and soda ash suppresses the futures prices [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Iron Element - Iron water production is decreasing, steel mill profitability is compressing, and there are still blast furnace maintenance plans. The short - term ore price is expected to oscillate as the upward support is insufficient after the previous price rebound. Scrap steel arrivals are low, and its price is expected to oscillate as the cost - performance improves after the price drop [4]. 2. Carbon Element - Coke supply has slightly increased, and steel mill开工 is seasonally declining. There are 1 - 2 rounds of supplementary price - cut expectations for coke, but the possibility of multiple consecutive rounds of cuts is low. The coke futures market is expected to follow coking coal. Coking coal fundamentals have slightly deteriorated, but the low valuation and winter storage expectations support the price. The near - month contract may oscillate, and the far - month contract is expected to be slightly stronger [5]. 3. Alloy - For manganese - silicon, the cost is relatively high, but the supply - demand is loose, and the price is expected to run at a low level. For ferrosilicon, the cost supports the price bottom, but the supply - demand is weak, and the price is also expected to run at a low level [5]. 4. Glass and Soda Ash - For glass, if there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. For soda ash, the price is close to the cost with obvious bottom support, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the long term [5][8]. 5. Specific Product Analysis Steel - The spot market trading is average, steel mill profitability is decreasing, and demand is weakening. Although the macro - environment is warm, the upward space is limited due to the poor fundamentals [9]. Iron Ore - The port trading volume has increased, and the price is expected to oscillate as the upward support is insufficient and the winter storage demand has not been released [10]. Scrap Steel - The arrivals are low, and the price is expected to oscillate as the cost - performance has improved and the demand from long - and short - process steel enterprises is supported [11]. Coke - The supply has slightly increased, and the market is slightly loose. There are 1 - 2 rounds of supplementary price - cut expectations, and the futures market is expected to follow coking coal [13]. Coking Coal - The spot price has a bottom support. The near - month contract may oscillate, and the far - month contract is expected to be slightly stronger [14]. Glass - If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the price is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, it will rise [15]. Soda Ash - The price is close to the cost with obvious bottom support, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the long term [17]. Manganese - Silicon - The cost is relatively high, but the supply - demand is loose, and the price is expected to run at a low level [18]. Ferrosilicon - The cost supports the price bottom, but the supply - demand is weak, and the price is expected to run at a low level [20].