Report Title - "图说金融(20251204):不宜过度押注人民币单边升值行情" [1] Core View - It is not advisable to overly bet on the unilateral appreciation of the RMB [1] Key Points - In the past three trading days, the central bank set the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar at 7.0794, 7.0754, and 7.0733, consistently above the spot exchange - rate market price, and the adjustment intensity of the counter - cyclical factor (in the depreciation direction) increased continuously. The spread between the two widened from - 18bps on November 28th to - 164bps on December 4th [2] - This signal may indicate that the central bank is releasing signals of "stabilizing the exchange rate" and guiding two - way exchange - rate fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the continuation of the adjustment direction and intensity of the central bank's counter - cyclical factor in the future [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock and bond markets continued to be weak. In the stock index futures market, the decline accelerated in the afternoon, and it is recommended to focus on high - dividend and price - increasing sectors, shifting from the "dividend + IM" configuration to "dividend + IC". In the stock index options market, risk appetite converged marginally, and short - term defense should be strengthened. In the treasury bond futures market, the ultra - long end remained weak, but the bond market is expected to be volatile and bullish [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **Viewpoint**: The decline accelerated in the afternoon, and high - dividend and price - increasing sectors can be used for hedging. The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts showed certain changes, and the total positions also changed. The logic behind the market trend is affected by factors such as concerns about Japanese interest rate hikes, seasonal characteristics in December, and the diversion of small - cap liquidity by large - cap stocks. Short - term configuration is recommended to focus on high - dividend and price - increasing sectors, shifting from "dividend + IM" to "dividend + IC". The operation suggestion is to hold "IC + dividend", and the risk point is insufficient incremental funds [7] 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **Viewpoint**: Risk appetite converged marginally, and short - term defense should be strengthened. The underlying assets of all option varieties fell, and trading volume increased. Market risk appetite converged, but implied volatility remained low. In December, the market is expected to be volatile and weak, and implied volatility is likely to rise. The operation suggestion is to convert the previous covered call portfolio into a collar portfolio by adding a long put option in the short - term. The risk factor is that the liquidity of the options market falls short of expectations [2][7] 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Viewpoint**: The ultra - long end remained weak. The trading volume and positions of T, TF, TS, and TL contracts changed, and there were also changes in spreads and basis. The bond market was affected by factors such as policy expectations and trading behavior. Although there were disturbances, the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading may boost market sentiment, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and bullish. Operation suggestions include trend strategies (volatile and bullish), hedging strategies (focus on long - position substitution at high basis levels), basis strategies (focus on arbitrage opportunities and basis widening), and curve strategies (focus on curve steepening). Risk factors include unexpected incremental policies, unexpected stock market rises, and unexpected monetary policies [7][8] 3.2 Economic Calendar - It shows the economic data of China and the United States from December 1 to 4, 2025, including manufacturing PMI, service PMI, ADP employment change, and initial jobless claims [9] 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - On December 3, the State Council conducted the 17th special study on promoting new - type urbanization and urban - rural integration. The Ministry of Culture and Tourism and the Civil Aviation Administration of China jointly issued an action plan for the integration of culture, tourism, and civil aviation. Moore Threads will be listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board on December 5, 2025. The artificial intelligence startup Anthropic is preparing for a large - scale IPO, with a potential valuation of over $300 billion [9][10][11] 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - It includes data on stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided content [12][16][28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical sector continues to experience weak and volatile trends, with olefins showing weakness and aromatics having a slightly stronger pattern [4]. - In December, the fundamentals of the energy and chemical market are expected to be weak, and the rebound space is limited. Attention should be focused on geopolitical disturbances [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical premiums fluctuate, and supply pressure persists. The progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace terms is still uncertain, and the situation in the Caribbean region is also highly unpredictable. EIA data shows that the US commercial crude oil inventory increased slightly in the week of November 28, and the refinery operating rate continued to rise [8]. - **Asphalt**: After the asphalt futures price fell below the normal range, it is expected to recover towards the spot price. The supply - demand situation is weak, and there is still significant pressure on inventory accumulation [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price of high - sulfur fuel oil is in a weak and volatile state. The three major drivers supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are currently weak, and the demand is still relatively low [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price is also in a weak and volatile state. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. However, the current valuation is relatively low and it follows the movement of crude oil [11]. - **PX**: In the short term, the cost guidance is limited, and the profit is strong under the independent logic of PX. The supply and demand are both strong, and the price is relatively resistant to decline [12]. - **PTA**: The market lacks new driving forces and follows the cost fluctuations. The supply - demand balance sheet is expected to show inventory reduction, and the price is expected to follow the upstream PX to fluctuate slightly upward [12]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price fluctuates mainly, with improved expectations but still under pressure in reality. The inventory in East China ports continues to accumulate significantly, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation in December [14]. - **Styrene**: The liquidity is slightly tight, and the price fluctuates slightly upward. The port inventory decreased in November, and the actual available inventory is lower than the total inventory. The cost support from pure benzene is weak, but the market has already priced in the inventory accumulation pressure [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: The domestic supply - demand pattern has not significantly weakened, but the expectations suppress the market sentiment. The price is expected to remain in a low - level volatile range [16]. - **Short - Fiber**: The upstream cost provides support, but the demand is in the off - season, and the price fluctuates slightly upward. The terminal demand is difficult to improve substantially in the short term [19]. - **Polyester Bottle Chip**: The price volatility narrows, and the trading atmosphere declines slightly. The price follows the raw materials, and the processing fee has certain support [20]. - **Methanol**: The expected unloading volume in coastal areas is high, and the supply - demand in inland areas provides phased support. The price fluctuates and consolidates [22]. - **Urea**: The off - season storage is progressing steadily, and the futures price fluctuates and consolidates. The supply remains at a high level, and the demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is limited [23]. - **LLDPE (Plastic)**: The supply - demand pattern does not show a significant weakening, but expectations suppress sentiment. The price is expected to remain in a low - level volatile range [24]. - **PP**: The oil price rebounds slightly, and the price fluctuates. The focus is on the changes in maintenance and the supply - demand situation [25]. - **PL**: The spot price is relatively strong, and the price fluctuates. The supply device has a restart expectation, and the buying is mainly for rigid demand [26]. - **PVC**: The valuation is low, and the expectations are weak. The price is cautiously bearish. The high inventory is difficult to reduce smoothly, and attention should be paid to whether low profits can lead to enterprise production cuts [28]. - **Caustic Soda**: The inventory continues to accumulate, and the price fluctuates weakly. The supply - demand situation is pessimistic, and attention should be paid to whether low profits can drive upstream production cuts [29]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - Period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various energy and chemical varieties show different trends, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.42 (+0.02), and PX's 1 - 5 month spread is - 36 (-6) [31]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Different varieties have different basis and warehouse receipt situations, for example, the basis of asphalt is - 2 (-46), and the warehouse receipt is 6060 [33]. - **Inter - Variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads also vary, like the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 2 (-16), and the 1 - month TA - EG spread is 908 (+33) [35]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - This part mainly monitors the basis and spreads of specific chemical varieties such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but the specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the given text [36][48][60]. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index is 2270.14 (-0.22%), the commodity 20 index is 2587.91 (-0.13%), and the industrial product index is 2219.45 (-0.41%) [277]. - **Energy Index**: On December 3, 2025, the energy index is 1117.42, with a daily decline of 1.10%, a 5 - day increase of 0.19%, a 1 - month decline of 4.17%, and a year - to - date decline of 9.00% [279].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The new energy metals market is characterized by tight warehouse receipts, with polysilicon leading the rise. Lithium carbonate supply and demand both increase, maintaining a tight pattern. Industrial silicon and polysilicon supply - demand tend to loosen, but low polysilicon warehouse receipts strongly support the near - term. In the short - to - medium term, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's restrictions on lithium carbonate positions and increased intraday flat - today handling fees negatively affected investor sentiment. After the short - term shock, lithium carbonate entered a shock consolidation phase, while polysilicon with tight warehouse receipts was relatively strong. In the long term, there is a strong expectation of supply contraction in the silicon industry, especially for polysilicon, whose price center may rise. Lithium ore production capacity is still increasing, but demand expectations are also rising, and the expected surplus in supply and demand is narrowing, so the long - term supply - demand trend of lithium carbonate needs to be re - examined, and the annual supply - demand inflection point may appear earlier [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industrial Silicon Information Analysis - According to SMM data, the spot prices of oxygen - passing 553 in East China and 421 in East China are 9500 yuan/ton and 9800 yuan/ton respectively, remaining stable. The latest domestic inventory of industrial silicon is 448,400 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.04%. As of November 2025, the monthly domestic production of industrial silicon is 402,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. From January to November, the cumulative production is 3.871 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. In October, industrial silicon exports were 45,073 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 35.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 30.8%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export is 607,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%. In October 2025, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity is 12.6GW, a month - on - month increase of 30.43% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.3% [6]. Main Logic - On the supply side, as the dry season approaches in the southwest, production and operation rates declined rapidly in November, and most southwest silicon plants entered shutdown maintenance. In December, southwest supply is expected to decline slightly, while northwest supply fluctuates slightly. On the demand side, in November, the dry - season production cut in the southwest polysilicon industry led to a decline in demand for industrial silicon. If the organic silicon industry implements production cuts in December, demand will also decline, and the demand for aluminum alloy has limited growth. Industrial silicon inventory still faces accumulation pressure and remains at a high level [6]. Outlook - If the organic silicon industry cuts production, the demand for industrial silicon will weaken further, and the inventory accumulation pressure may increase. However, short - term market sentiment is volatile, and after the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts, the quantity is currently low, so the price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate [6]. 2. Polysilicon Information Analysis - According to the Silicon Industry Association, the transaction price range of N - type re - feedstock is 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, remaining the same week - on - week. The latest number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 1550 lots, unchanged from the previous value. In October, China's polysilicon exports were about 1547.8 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 58%. From January to October 2025, the total exports were 20,215 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 33%. In October, imports were about 1446 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 39.1%. From January to October 2025, imports were 16,123 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 52.26%. From January to October 2025, the newly installed domestic photovoltaic capacity was 252.87GW, a year - on - year increase of 39.5% [6][7]. Main Logic - On the supply side, as the dry season arrives, the polysilicon production capacity in the southwest gradually decreases, and the production in November dropped below 120,000 tons. In the medium - to - long term, the constraints of the anti - involution policy on polysilicon supply need to be monitored. On the demand side, the photovoltaic installation growth rate was significantly high from January to May, but it overdrafted the second - half - year demand. Since June, the monthly installation volume has declined, and in November, the demand for polysilicon gradually weakened. Overall, although the demand for polysilicon is declining marginally, the supply is also shrinking during the dry season, and there is still an expectation of anti - involution policy, so the price is expected to fluctuate widely [10]. Outlook - The anti - involution policy can significantly boost the polysilicon price, but the actual demand is weak, so the price is expected to fluctuate widely [10]. 3. Lithium Carbonate Information Analysis - On December 3, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract (LC2605) decreased by 3% to 93,660 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, and the total open interest decreased by 15,040 lots to 1,063,867 lots. The spot price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 94,350 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 91,900 yuan/ton. The average price of spodumene concentrate index (CIF China) was 1180 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 660 lots to 9652 lots. In November 2025, Chile exported 18,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month decrease of 28%. From January to November 2025, Chile exported a total of 207,400 tons of lithium carbonate, a year - on - year decrease of 6%. In November 2025, Chile exported 10,132 tons of lithium sulfate, all to China, a month - on - month increase of 493%. From January to November 2025, the total export of lithium sulfate was 82,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 33% [10][11]. Main Logic - Currently, the market has strong supply and demand, and there are differences in the production plan for December, but the inventory is still being depleted. The resumption of production at Jiaxiaowo is being hyped again, which may cause price fluctuations. On the supply side, the domestic monthly production of lithium carbonate continued to rise in November, with a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 49%. It is expected to remain strong in December. On the demand side, the apparent demand is good, and the production plan in the off - season in December only decreased slightly. The social inventory continues to be depleted, and it is expected to continue in December. If Jiaxiaowo can resume production soon, the supply - demand situation may turn loose in late December [12]. Outlook - In the short term, the supply - demand shows a tight balance, but the sentiment has cooled down, so the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [12]. 4. Market Monitoring - Not provided in the content 5. Commodity Indexes - On December 3, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities was 2270.14, a decrease of 0.22%. The Commodity 20 Index was 2587.91, a decrease of 0.13%. The industrial products index was 2219.45, a decrease of 0.41%. The new energy commodity index on December 3, 2025, was 448.05, with a daily decline of 0.96%, a decline of 0.47% in the past 5 days, an increase of 9.22% in the past month, and an increase of 8.65% since the beginning of the year [53][55].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - environment is warm as the December Central Economic Work Conference is approaching and there are still expectations of interest rate cuts overseas. However, the current steel inventory level is still higher year - on - year, demand is under pressure to weaken, and the steel futures market lacks upward momentum. There is still an expectation of seasonal weakening of hot metal, the driving force for further upward movement of iron ore is insufficient, the spot prices of coking coal and coke remain weak, and the supply - demand surplus of glass and soda ash continues to suppress the futures prices [1][2]. - Overall, there are limited bright spots in the fundamentals during the off - season. There is still a possibility of positive news from the macro and policy fronts, and the futures market may have phased upward opportunities due to the boost of macro sentiment [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Sinter ore inventory decreased slightly despite the increase in the sinter ore output and its proportion in the furnace, but sinter powder inventory increased. With the continuous compression of profit margins, hot metal is expected to continue to weaken, and the support from rigid demand is gradually weakening. Overseas mine shipments increased slightly month - on - month, with a decrease in Australian shipments, a significant increase in Brazilian shipments, and a slight decrease in non - mainstream shipments. The arrivals in this period decreased month - on - month, port inventory continued to accumulate, and the inventory of imported ore in national steel mills declined, with the replenishment demand not yet significantly released. After the previous price recovery, there is insufficient support for further upward movement, and the iron ore price is expected to oscillate in the short term [2]. - The arrival of scrap steel is low. After the price decline, its cost - performance has recovered, and the demand for scrap steel from both long - and short - process steel enterprises is supported. The downside space is limited, and the scrap steel price is expected to oscillate [2]. Carbon Element - Coke supply has increased slightly, and steel mill开工 has declined seasonally. Coke supply and demand are slightly loose. Coupled with the continuous weakening of spot cost support, there are still expectations of 1 - 2 rounds of supplementary price cuts. However, there are still expectations of winter storage and replenishment for raw materials in the future, and the possibility of continuous multiple rounds of price cuts is low. The futures market is expected to oscillate following coking coal [3]. - Although the fundamentals of coking coal have slightly deteriorated marginally, the current valuation level of the futures market is still low. The low - output state of domestic coal mines will continue, and the expectations of winter storage and replenishment by the mid - and downstream are strong. There is still support at the bottom of the spot price. The near - month contracts may remain oscillating due to the impact of delivery, while the far - month contracts are less affected, and are expected to oscillate with an upward trend [3][11]. Alloys - The price center of ore has risen, and the cost of ferromanganese silicon remains relatively high. However, the market supply - demand is in a loose state, and the price is under great upward pressure. It is difficult to transfer the cost downstream. It is expected that the futures price will mainly operate at a low level [3]. - The strong cost supports the bottom of the ferrosilicon price. However, the market supply - demand is in a weak state, and the price increase is still weak. The cost transfer downstream is not smooth, and the futures price of the main contract is expected to mainly operate at a low level [3]. Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventory of the mid - and downstream is moderately high. From the perspective of fundamentals, the current supply - demand is still in a surplus state. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly. Otherwise, the price will rise [3][6][12]. - The price of the soda ash industry is approaching the cost, and the bottom support is obvious. Recently, the cold - repair of glass has further increased, and the overall supply - demand is still in a surplus state. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the surplus pattern of supply will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [6][15]. Specific Varieties - **Steel**: The demand is under pressure in the off - season, and the futures market lacks upward momentum. The spot market trading is generally average. The profitability of steel mills continues to decline, but the willingness to reduce production is limited. The overall steel inventory continues to decline, but the current inventory level is still higher year - on - year, and the demand is facing the pressure to weaken. The third - round and fifth - batch of the Central Ecological and Environmental Protection Inspection Team has reported some typical environmental problems in Tianjin and Hebei. Although it has limited impact on the production of northern steel mills, the macro - environment is warm, and the futures market still has the driving force to rebound from a low level, but the upside space is limited [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the price is expected to oscillate. The overseas mine shipments increased slightly month - on - month, the arrivals decreased month - on - month. The rigid demand for hot metal is gradually weakening, the port inventory continues to accumulate, the inventory of imported ore in steel mills has declined, and the replenishment demand has not been significantly released. After the previous price recovery, there is insufficient support for further upward movement [8]. - **Scrap Steel**: The arrival of scrap steel at steel mills is low, and the price is expected to oscillate. The arrival volume this week decreased slightly compared with last week and was lower than the level of the same period last year. The demand from both long - and short - process steel enterprises is supported, and the downside space is limited [9]. - **Coke**: The supply and demand are slightly loose, and the price is still under pressure. The supply has increased slightly, the demand has declined slightly, the inventory has slightly accumulated, but the overall contradiction is not significant. There are still expectations of 1 - 2 rounds of supplementary price cuts, but the possibility of continuous multiple rounds of price cuts is low, and the futures market is expected to oscillate following coking coal [10]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply remains at a low level, and coal mines continue to accumulate inventory. The domestic coal mine production continues at a low level, the imports from Mongolia remain high, the demand from the mid - and downstream has decreased, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. The futures market is expected to oscillate, with the near - month contracts remaining stable and the far - month contracts expected to oscillate with an upward trend [10][11]. - **Glass**: The demand is still weak, and supply reduction is still needed. The supply is expected to decline in December. The demand is weak compared with the same period last year, and the large inventory of the mid - stream always suppresses the futures valuation. If there is no further cold - repair, the price may decline [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply remains at a low level, and the supply - demand is still in a surplus state. The supply and demand fundamentals have not changed significantly. The industry is still in the stage of clearing at the bottom of the cycle. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long run, the price center will decline [15]. - **Ferromanganese Silicon**: The cost transfer downstream is not smooth, and the inventory accumulation puts pressure on the price. The supply - demand is loose, and the price is under pressure. The cost support still exists, but the supply contraction is limited, and it is difficult to relieve the inventory pressure. It is expected that the futures price will mainly operate at a low level [16]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply - demand is in a weak state, and the price increase is weak. The cost support is strong, but the supply - demand is still weak, and it is difficult to transfer the cost downstream. It is expected that the futures price of the main contract will mainly operate at a low level [18]. Index Information - On December 3, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures' commodity index was 2270.14, down 0.22%; the commodity 20 index was 2587.91, down 0.13%; the industrial product index was 2219.45, down 0.41% [101]. - The steel industry chain index on December 3, 2025, was 1990.66, with a daily decline of 0.30%, a 5 - day increase of 0.53%, a monthly decline of 0.39%, and a year - to - date decline of 5.58% [103].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - On Wednesday, precious metals maintained a volatile and upward trend, with significant high - level fluctuations in silver. The unexpectedly weak ADP employment in the US increased the probability of a December interest rate cut, and the expectation of loose liquidity still dominated the market. The overall logical environment is conducive to the rise of precious metals this month, and in the long - term, the decline of the US dollar credit will drive the upward trend of precious metals. [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalog Key Information - The cooling of the US labor market exceeded expectations. The ADP employment in November decreased by 32,000, the largest decline since March 2023. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is nearly 90%. [2] - The US import and export price indices in September were flat month - on - month, with the import price index rising 0.3% year - on - year and the export price index rising 3.8% year - on - year. [2] - US President Trump mentioned that Kevin Hassett is a potential Fed chairman. [2] - US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicted that the US economy will achieve "real wage growth" and "low - inflation growth" and return to 4% growth in 2026. [2] Price Logic - Short - term: Precious metals were volatile and upward on Wednesday, with large fluctuations in silver. The unexpectedly weak ADP employment increased the probability of a December interest rate cut, and the loose liquidity expectation dominated the market. [1][3] - Medium - term: This month, the expectation of loose liquidity is the core driving force. With the approaching Fed chairman nomination, the relatively dovish Hassett has the highest popularity, and the period from nomination to taking office may see the smoothest trading of loose liquidity expectations and Fed independence. The spot - end driving force for silver remains, and the squeeze - out trading is spreading. [3] - Long - term: The long - term upward trend of precious metals is driven by the contraction of the US dollar credit. The expansion of the US currency and the global fiscal expansion may lead to a mild economic recovery, and silver may have greater elasticity. [3] Outlook - This week, the range of the London gold spot is expected to be between $4,000 and $4,400 per ounce, and the range of the London silver spot is expected to be between $53 and $60 per ounce. [3] Commodity Index - On December 3, 2025, the comprehensive commodity index was 2270.14, down 0.22%; the commodity 20 index was 2587.91, down 0.13%; the industrial product index was 2219.45, down 0.41%. [43] - The precious metal index on December 3, 2025, was 3506.69, with a daily increase of 0.24%, a 5 - day increase of 4.03%, a 1 - month increase of 9.15%, and a year - to - date increase of 58.50%. [45]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - With the implementation of Document No. 136, most regions expect a decline in PV project prices and IRR, and actual auction results vary significantly. The highest mechanism-based prices are in central-south provinces, but their markets are dominated by distributed projects with limited grid - connected capacity. Shandong's incremental project expected returns are low, while those in the northwest and southwest are relatively high, leaving room for capacity growth in these regions. Eastern seaboard expansion may slow down. China's PV installation is not solely return - driven, and local government plans also play a direct role. Adding energy storage can hedge against return decline, and solar - plus - storage projects have broad development prospects [2][3][17] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Mechanism - based Electricity 3.1.1 Existing Projects - The mechanism - based electricity volume ratio of existing projects varies greatly among regions. In Hunan, Shanghai, Chongqing, and Guizhou, it ranges from 80% - 100%. In most northwest regions, it's determined by hourly counts or set at a lower ratio. Some regions implement differentiated management, with distributed, older, and wind power projects generally having higher ratios [9][34] 3.1.2 Incremental Projects - Individual incremental projects can lock in 80 - 90% of their annual grid - delivered output at the regulated mechanism - based price, but the overall coverage ratio is low. Inner Mongolia offers no additional mechanism - based volume, and Xinjiang and Ningxia keep the share low. Hunan, Liaoning, Jilin, and Guizhou reserve 20%, 55%, 40%, and 77% respectively, while Hainan has higher rates [10][35] 3.2 Mechanism - based Price 3.2.1 Existing Projects - Most provinces' mechanism - based prices for existing projects are pegged to the local coal - fire benchmark price, with an average of CNY 0.3591/kWh. The price level order is southeast coastal > southwest > northeast/north > northwest [12][37] 3.2.2 Incremental Projects - The upper bound of the mechanism - based electricity price for incremental projects is generally close to that of existing projects, with an average of CNY 0.3426/kWh, a 4.8% discount. The lower bound averages CNY 0.1727/kWh (CNY 0.1989/kWh excluding Inner Mongolia), about 44.6% below that of existing projects. The price level order is southeast coastal > southwest/northeast/north > northwest [13][14][38] 3.3 Regional Situation 3.3.1 Shandong - The share of incremental mechanism - based PV projects in Shandong might be lower than 20%, higher for centralized projects. 1.265 GW of PV capacity is qualified in the first - round bidding, with a mechanism - based electricity volume of 1.248 TWh. The coverage ratio is about 30 - 40% in terms of electricity and 10 - 20% in terms of installed capacity [21][22][43] 3.3.2 Xinjiang - The share of incremental mechanism - based PV projects in Xinjiang is relatively high. 3.6 TWh of PV mechanism - based electricity volume has been allocated to 31 projects (19 centralized). It corresponds to about 14.3 GW of installed capacity, and the coverage ratio is high considering the 2025 H1 new PV installation [23][44] 3.3.3 Gansu - Gansu's wind and PV plants bid together. The first round awards 0.83 TWh for 2025 H2 projects, and the second reserves 1.52 TWh for 2026 projects. The share of incremental mechanism - based PV projects is expected to be 10 - 15% [26][48] 3.3.4 Others - Yunnan, Jiangxi, and Guangdong have completed their first bidding rounds. Yunnan didn't disclose the mechanism - admitted electricity volume. Jiangxi allocated 131 GWh to PV projects (5 - 10% coverage), and Guangdong placed 4.65 TWh under the mechanism. Selected projects in Guangdong and Jiangxi are mainly distributed systems [28][49]

中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/12/04 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: China-Russia Strategic Security Consultation was held. Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 Futures Prices: On ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas: The US economy is in a low - speed adjustment phase, with consumer K - shaped development and cooling employment. The interest - rate cut expectation has shifted from "expectation guidance" to "data confirmation". The "Hassett transaction" has strengthened the market's re - evaluation of the future policy framework, improving global financial conditions. Dollar liquidity is becoming the main line of major asset allocation in the next quarter, and the market expects the Fed to discuss balance - sheet expansion around December [7]. - Domestic: In October, the profit margin of industrial enterprises continued to be under pressure due to weak domestic demand. However, with the joint promotion of policy - based financial instruments and special bonds, the forward - looking indices for enterprise investment and recruitment have significantly rebounded. In November, the manufacturing PMI rebounded, with both supply and demand improving marginally. The construction business activity index also increased. Overall, the domestic economy maintains a weak - stable pattern, and the guiding role of policies on expectations is strengthening [7]. - Asset Allocation: In the fourth quarter, the overall asset - allocation idea remains unchanged. The macro - environment is still friendly to risk assets. It is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals, and wait for opportunities to increase positions in stock indices on dips [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogues 3.1 Market Performance of Various Assets - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures, SSE 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures showed different degrees of daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual changes, with the CSI 300 futures up 15.23% this year [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures also had different price changes and yield fluctuations [4]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index, euro - US dollar exchange rate, US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rate, etc. showed various trends [4]. - **Interest Rates**: The yields of domestic and US bonds, interest - rate spreads, and inflation - related rates also had different changes [4]. - **Industry Indices**: Different industries such as transportation, non - ferrous metals, and coal had different levels of daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual price changes [4]. - **Commodity Futures**: Energy, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, etc. all had their own price trends and volatility [4][5]. 3.2 Short - term Judgment of Various Assets - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, stock index options to fluctuate, and treasury bond futures to rise in a volatile manner [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to fluctuate during the short - term adjustment phase [8]. - **Shipping Sector**: The freight rate of container shipping on the European route is expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, and coke are expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector**: Copper, aluminum, lead, etc. are expected to rise in a volatile manner, while nickel is expected to fall in a volatile manner [8]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Crude oil, LPG, etc. are expected to fluctuate, while some products like asphalt and high - sulfur fuel oil are expected to fall in a volatile manner [10]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Most agricultural products such as grains, oils, and livestock are expected to fluctuate, and the price of natural rubber is expected to return to a narrow - range fluctuation [10].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-12-4 停产消息刺激纸浆上涨，但维持宽幅震 荡格局 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。中信期货不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内 容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。如本报告涉及行业分析或上市公司相关内容，旨在对期货市场及其相关性进行比较论证，列举解释期货品种 相关特性及潜在风险，不涉及对其行业或上市公司的相关推荐，不构成对任何主体进行或不进行某项行为的建议或意见，不得将本报告的任何内容据以作为中信 期货所作的承诺或声明。在任何情况下，任何主体依据本报告所进行的任何作为或不作为，中信期货不承担任何责任。 油脂：关注上方技术阻力有效性 蛋白粕：美豆震荡，豆菜粕价差如期扩大 玉米/淀粉：盘内冲高，玉米维持偏紧格局 生猪：供需宽松，猪价偏弱运行 天然橡胶：回归窄幅震荡走势 合成橡胶：消息面情绪提振幅度有限 棉花：近月合约下方支撑较强，上方空间受套保限制 白糖：糖价承压，小幅下跌 纸浆：停产消息刺激盘面继续上涨，但维持宽幅震荡格局 双胶纸：现货维稳，盘面跟随 ...