1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 27, equity indices fell while CGB futures rose, and commodity futures generally declined, with polysilicon, coking coal, crude oil, and coke leading the drop [10][12] - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce several policy measures to expand service consumption in September [34][35] - From January to July, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide decreased by 1.7% year-on-year [34][35] - In the first seven months of this year, Hong Kong's IPO fundraising surged by over 610% year-on-year to HK$128 billion [36] - From August 14 to 20, allocative foreign capital turned to a net inflow of 6.98 billion yuan, indicating an improvement in the attractiveness of RMB assets [36] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On August 27, equity indices fell while CGB futures rose; commodity futures generally declined, with polysilicon, coking coal, crude oil, and coke leading the decline [10][12] - The top three gainers were apple (up 1.5% with a 23.5% month-on-month increase in open interest), nickel (up 1.2% with a 9.5% month-on-month decrease in open interest), and tin (up 0.8% with a 73.8% month-on-month increase in open interest) [10][12] - The top three decliners were polysilicon (down 4.9% with a 12.4% month-on-month increase in open interest), coking coal (down 3.9% with a 1.0% month-on-month increase in open interest), and crude oil (down 3.6% with a 6.5% month-on-month increase in open interest) [11][12] 3.1.2 Daily Raise - Tin - On August 27, tin increased by 0.8% to 271,790 yuan/ton. Under the current tightened mining supply, tin prices are expected to fluctuate, and their volatility may rise [16][20] - The domestic mining end remains tight, and the official resumption of production in Wa State does not change the tight situation. In Indonesia, refined tin exports declined in July, and African tin ore production and export are unstable [17][20] - Smelters face a shortage of raw materials, with low processing fees and a low smelting operating rate. Tin terminal demand has weakened, and inventory destocking is difficult [18][19][20] 3.1.3 Daily Drop 3.1.3.1 Crude Oil - On August 27, crude oil decreased by 3.6% to 479.7 yuan/barrel. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to short-term disturbances from the Russia-Ukraine issue [23][25] - API data shows a small inventory draw in the US. OPEC+ is accelerating supply release, US production is high, and non-US and non-OPEC+ output is growing steadily, leading to persistent supply pressure [24][25] - The high operating rates of Chinese and US refineries may decline due to the accumulation of refined oil inventories, and oil price rebounds remain weak [24][25] 3.1.3.2 Coking Coal - On August 27, coking coal decreased by 3.9% to 1,154 yuan/ton. Supply disruptions persist, and it is difficult to increase supply before the military parade. The market still has support due to the eighth round of coke price increases [28][31][32] - Futures market sentiment has declined, and the market has pulled back. Some coal mines have resumed production, but output is still restricted. The average daily customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port remains above 1,000 trucks [29][32] - The eighth round of coke price increases has started, with regional differentiation. Coking production is restricted in some areas, and short-term rigid demand for coking coal has declined slightly. Downstream enterprises are purchasing on demand, and some coal mines have seen inventory accumulation [30][32] 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce several policy measures to expand service consumption in September, aiming to optimize service supply and stimulate new growth in service consumption [34][35] - From January to July, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide were 4,020.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%. In July, the profits of these enterprises decreased by 1.5% year-on-year [34][35] 3.2.2 Industry News - In the first seven months of this year, there were 51 IPOs in Hong Kong, and the fundraising amount surged by over 610% year-on-year to HK$128 billion. As of the end of July, over 220 IPO applications were under review [36] - From August 14 to 20, allocative foreign capital turned to a net inflow of 6.98 billion yuan, with passive allocative foreign capital having a net inflow of 6.84 billion yuan and active allocative foreign capital having a net inflow of 140 million yuan, indicating an improvement in the attractiveness of RMB assets [36]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 国内商品期货大面积飘绿，股指板块普遍下跌 ——中信期货晨报20250828 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 221/221/221 181/181/181 基 础 色 辅 助 色 228/210/172 0/0/0 210/10/16 87/87/87 227/82/4 | 金融资政治意体 | | | | | | | | | | | | 国内主要商品涨跌幅 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 日度涨跌幅 周皮涨跌幅 月度涨跌幅 季度涨跌幅 今年涨跌幅 | 品种 | 现价 | | | | | | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | | 日庚涨跌幅 周度涨跌幅 月度涨跌幅 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [5]. - Specific varieties: iron ore, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon are all rated as "oscillation" [6][7][10][11][13][15][16][17] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black price is in a weak oscillation. Although the demand is weakly expected in the peak season, the cost supply is disturbed, and there is a driving force for a rebound, but the upward space is limited. The follow - up should focus on policy implementation and terminal demand performance [5]. - After the decline of the glass futures and spot market sentiment, the supply is expected to be stable, and the short - term is expected to oscillate widely. The long - term price center will decline [13][14]. - The supply - surplus pattern of soda ash remains unchanged. The short - term is expected to oscillate widely, and the long - term price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element (Iron Ore) - Supply: Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports slightly declined, close to the same period last year, with relatively stable total supply [2]. - Demand: The small - sample hot metal production decreased slightly, and the daily consumption of imported sinter decreased significantly. There is an expectation of a decline in hot metal production, but the impact is limited. After the parade, iron ore demand may return to a high level [2]. - Inventory: The iron ore port inventory decreased this week, and the total inventory slightly declined [2]. - Outlook: The fundamentals have limited negative driving forces, and the price is expected to oscillate [2][7]. 3.2 Carbon Element (Coking Coal and Coke) Coking Coal - Supply: Production in some mines is restricted, and coal mine safety inspections are increasing. Although the average daily customs clearance at the Ganqimao Port remains high, overall, coal mine production has tightened before the parade [2]. - Demand: The eighth round of coke price increase is restarted, and the demand for coking coal has slightly declined in the short term. Downstream purchases on demand, and some coal mines have inventory accumulation, but there is no obvious inventory pressure [2]. - Outlook: Before the parade, the coking coal market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. Although it is difficult for the eighth round of coke price increase to be implemented, the futures market is still supported [11]. Coke - Supply: After the seventh - round price increase was fully implemented, the profits of coking enterprises recovered. As the parade approaches, the start - up of some coking enterprises is restricted, while others maintain normal production [10]. - Demand: Downstream steel mills have good profits and high production willingness, but affected by the parade, the start - up of some steel mills in North China will also be restricted, and the demand is affected [10]. - Outlook: The game of the eighth - round price increase continues. Before the parade, the futures market is still supported, but the actual implementation is difficult [10]. 3.3 Alloys (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon) Manganese Silicon - Supply: The production level has reached a high point this year, and the market supply pressure is gradually accumulating [2]. - Demand: Steel mills' profits are good, but as the parade approaches, steel production will decline slightly, and the short - term demand for manganese silicon is expected to decline [2]. - Outlook: The short - term price decline space is limited due to cost support, but the long - term price center may decline [16]. Ferrosilicon - Supply: Manufacturers' resumption of production has accelerated, and production has gradually reached a high level [17]. - Demand: Steel production will decline slightly during the parade, and the demand for ferrosilicon in steelmaking will decline. The magnesium market has supply pressure and weak demand [17]. - Outlook: The short - term price decline space is limited, but the long - term price center is expected to decline [17][18]. 3.4 Glass - Supply: There is still one production line waiting to produce glass, and the overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable [2]. - Demand: The demand in the off - season has declined, but the deep - processing orders have increased month - on - month. The inventory days of raw sheets have reached a high point this year, and the mid - stream and downstream lack the ability to replenish inventory [13]. - Outlook: The short - term is expected to oscillate widely, and the long - term price is expected to decline after returning to fundamental trading [13][14]. 3.5 Soda Ash - Supply: The long - term supply pressure still exists, and short - term production is affected. It is expected that both production capacity and output will increase in the future [15]. - Demand: The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to remain stable, and the demand for light soda ash is flat, with weak downstream replenishment sentiment [15]. - Outlook: The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. The short - term is expected to oscillate widely, and the long - term price center will decline [15]. 3.6 Steel - Supply: The production of rebar decreased, and the production of hot - rolled coils increased. The supply of medium - thick plates and cold - rolled products fluctuated little [6]. - Demand: The demand for rebar has improved month - on - month, and the inventory accumulation has slowed down. The demand for hot - rolled coils remains at a high level, and the inventory continues to accumulate. The supply and demand of the five major steel products have increased, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down [6]. - Outlook: The short - term futures market is expected to oscillate widely, and the follow - up should focus on steel mill production restrictions and terminal demand [6]. 3.7 Scrap Steel - Supply: The arrival volume of scrap steel decreased week - on - week [8]. - Demand: The profit of electric furnaces is low, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in electric furnaces has decreased. The daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process furnaces has slightly increased, and the total daily consumption has increased slightly [8]. - Outlook: The short - term price is expected to oscillate [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Neutral, expected to fluctuate [5] - **Protein Meal**: Neutral, expected to fluctuate [7] - **Corn/Starch**: Bearish, expected to fluctuate weakly [7] - **Hogs**: Neutral, expected to fluctuate [9] - **Natural Rubber**: Bullish, expected to fluctuate strongly [12] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Bullish, expected to fluctuate strongly [13] - **Cotton**: Bullish, expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term and bearish when new cotton is listed [13] - **Sugar**: Bearish, expected to fluctuate weakly in the long term and fluctuate within a range in the short term [15] - **Pulp**: Neutral, expected to fluctuate [18] - **Logs**: Bullish, recommended to buy far - month contracts on dips [20] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including factors such as supply and demand, weather, policies, and international trade. It provides short - and long - term outlooks and investment suggestions for each product, considering both domestic and international factors [5][7][9] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Oils and Fats**: Due to technical pressure, US soybeans fell on Monday, and domestic oils continued to fluctuate. Macro factors such as the strengthening of the US dollar and the rise in crude oil prices, as well as industry factors like high soybean good - rate, uncertain export demand, and different supply - demand situations of different oils, affect the market. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term and be bullish in the medium term [5] - **Protein Meal**: Internationally, US soybean good - rate is high, Brazilian exports are peaking, and CFTC net short positions are decreasing. Domestically, spot is stronger than the futures. It is expected that the outer market will rise more than the inner market, and the basis may bottom out. Suggestions include selling hedges for oil mills and buying basis contracts for downstream enterprises [7] - **Corn/Starch**: The price trend is weak. Supply is gradually tightening, but the market expects a low probability of a supply gap. Demand is weak due to low profits in related industries. New - season corn production is normal, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term and may attract long - positions in the long term [7][8] - **Hogs**: Supply is abundant in the short, medium, and long term, but there are policies to guide capacity reduction. Demand may increase with the cooling weather, and there was a 10,000 - ton reserve purchase. It is expected to fluctuate, with the spot and near - term contracts remaining weak and the far - term contracts supported by capacity - reduction expectations [9] - **Natural Rubber**: The price may be affected by weather speculation. It is in the seasonal rising period, and there are various positive factors. The short - term supply may decrease, and demand is rigid. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [12] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market follows natural rubber and is supported by the short - term tightness of raw material butadiene. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [13] - **Cotton**: Supply is tight, and the impact of import quotas is limited. Demand is improving, and the expected purchase price of ginned cotton by ginners is rising. It is expected to fluctuate strongly until October and may decline when new cotton is listed [13][14] - **Sugar**: International production in Brazil is increasing, and exports are at a peak. Domestic imports are rising. Supply is increasing, but the short - term downside is limited. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the long term and within a range in the short term [15] - **Pulp**: The market has both positive and negative factors. The recovery of hardwood pulp trading and cost support are positive, while over - supply of paper and delivery pressure are negative. It is expected to fluctuate [18] - **Logs**: The short - term fundamentals are improving, with rising valuation and reduced supply pressure. However, there is delivery pressure. It is recommended to buy far - month contracts on dips within the range of 790 - 840 [20] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - Data monitoring is carried out for various products such as oils and fats, corn, hogs, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but specific data details are not fully presented in the text [22][53][73] 3.3 Rating Standards - The rating standards include categories such as strongly bullish, bullish with fluctuations, neutral with fluctuations, bearish with fluctuations, and strongly bearish, with a time period of 2 - 12 weeks and a standard deviation calculation method provided [170] 3.4 Commodity Index - On August 26, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial products index all declined. The agricultural products index also declined by 0.49% on that day, with different historical and recent period fluctuations [172][174]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - U.S. economic fundamentals remain stable in the short - term but face employment and inflation pressures in the medium - term, with monetary easing expectations supporting market risk appetite. Domestic economic fundamentals are slightly weaker on a quarterly basis, but it's still not difficult to achieve the annual economic target, and market risk appetite may also be supported. In the short - term, the domestic market may maintain high sentiment, and external macro - monetary policy is expected to become looser. With the approach of important events and economic slowdown pressure, short - term market volatility may increase [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: Powell's annual meeting speech was unexpectedly dovish at the global central bank summit, strengthening market expectations of interest rate cuts. The current fundamental expectations have weakened slightly, with consumer confidence deteriorating in August and housing construction showing mixed trends [9]. - **Domestic Macro**: In China, on one hand, the probability of a significant downturn in external demand has decreased, while domestic demand, such as consumption and investment, is still at a reasonable level. On the other hand, the capital market remains loose. Shanghai has optimized and adjusted real estate policies [9]. - **Asset View**: In the short - term, the domestic market may maintain high sentiment until after important events, when the pricing weight of fundamentals on assets may increase. Overseas, the expectation of interest rate cuts in September has strengthened, and the macro - monetary policy is expected to become looser. As important events approach and economic growth slows, short - term market volatility may increase [9]. 3.2 View Highlights - **Finance**: The stock market is trending upwards, and the linkage between stocks and bonds is weakening. Stock index futures and options are expected to rise with fluctuations, while treasury bond futures are expected to fluctuate [10]. - **Precious Metals**: The expectation of interest rate cuts in September is expanding, which is favorable for the prices of gold and silver, and they are expected to rise with fluctuations [10]. - **Shipping**: Attention should be paid to the rate of decline in freight rates for the European container shipping line, which is expected to fluctuate [10]. - **Black Building Materials**: With the strengthening of the cost side, black building materials are rebounding from low levels. Most varieties are expected to fluctuate, such as steel, iron ore, coke, etc. [10]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: The weak dollar supports non - ferrous metals, but weakening demand also needs attention. Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to fluctuate, and zinc is expected to decline with fluctuations [10]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The supply - demand situation of crude oil has weakened significantly, and the weakening of coking coal has dragged down the chemical industry. Most varieties are expected to fluctuate, and some are expected to rise or fall with fluctuations, such as PX, PTA are expected to rise with fluctuations, while crude oil is expected to decline with fluctuations [12]. - **Agriculture**: The agricultural product market is oscillating at high levels, waiting for field inspection results. Most varieties are expected to fluctuate, and rubber and synthetic rubber are expected to rise with fluctuations [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Report's Core Viewpoint - On August 26, equity indices fell, while CGB futures rose. Most commodity futures fell, with coking coal, coke, and silicon metal leading the declines. The report also covered macro news and industry news, as well as provided analysis of specific futures varieties [2][12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On August 26, equity indices declined, and CGB futures increased. Most commodity futures dropped, with coking coal, coke, and silicon metal having the largest declines. The top three gainers were peanut kernel, log, and TSR 20, while the top three decliners were aluminium oxide, coking coal, and silicon metal [10][12]. 3.1.2 Daily Raise - **Lead**: On August 26, lead increased by 0.5% to 16,930 yuan/ton. Powell's dovish speech at Jackson Hole pressured the US dollar, creating a relatively positive macro environment. Lead ingot demand has picked up, and supply - demand is expected to be slightly short this week. However, the incomplete recovery of the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has pressured lead prices. The cost support for secondary lead remains high, and lead prices are fluctuating [16][18]. - **Natural Rubber**: On August 26, it rose by 0.3% to 15,885 yuan/ton. Macro sentiment is decent, and fundamentals provide short - term support. The price is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias in the short term. The Fed rate - cut expectation rose last Friday, and there are self - driven speculative expectations. It is entering the seasonal upward period, and there are many speculative themes. Short - term shipments may decrease, demand is rigid, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm has picked up. The increase in supply may be delayed due to expected heavy rainfall in production areas [23][25][26]. 3.1.3 Daily Drop - **Aluminium Oxide**: On August 26, it decreased by 3.5% to 3,069 yuan/ton. Prices may fluctuate with a bearish bias, and the main strategy is to roll short positions when prices rise unilaterally. Smelters are profitable, and their operating capacity has rebounded to a high level. The upstream - downstream balance shows a surplus, the inventory accumulation trend is expanding, and fundamentals are weak. Warehouse receipts and warehousing have increased significantly, but be wary of disruptions at Guinean mines and new production capacity control concerns [31][33]. 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - Trump threatened to impose about 200% tariffs on China over rare earth magnet supply. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has clarified its position on the tariff issue multiple times. The 13th session of the Standing Committee of the 14th CPPCC National Committee was held on August 26, with members speaking on "formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development". China has built the world's largest electric vehicle charging network during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, and the proportion of installed renewable energy power generation capacity has increased from 40% to about 60% [39][40][41]. 3.2.2 Industry News - As of the end of 2024, China's outward investment stock exceeded 3 trillion USD, ranking among the world's top three for 8 consecutive years, and its proportion in global outward investment increased to 7.2%. Since 2012, China's outward investment flow has ranked among the world's top three for 13 consecutive years, and China has established over 50,000 enterprises overseas, covering 190 countries and regions [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual metals, the ratings include: - Copper: Expected to be in a "震荡" (oscillation) pattern [5][6] - Alumina: Expected to be "震荡偏弱" (oscillating weakly) [6] - Aluminum: Expected to be in an "震荡" (oscillation) range [8][9] - Aluminum Alloy: Expected to have short - term "震荡" (oscillation) and potential upward movement for ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 in the future [9][10] - Zinc: Expected to be "震荡偏弱" (oscillating weakly) in the medium - to - long term [13] - Lead: Expected to be in an "震荡" (oscillation) state [14][15][16] - Nickel: Expected to be "偏强" (strong) in the short term and "空头离场" (short - sellers exit) in the medium - to - long term [19] - Stainless Steel: Expected to be in an "震荡" (oscillation) range in the short term [21] - Tin: Expected to be in an "震荡" (oscillation) state, with potential increased volatility in August [22][23] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Macro - level**: Recent economic data are mixed. European investor and consumer confidence indices in August are weak, but US August existing - home sales and August Euro - US manufacturing PMI flash values are better than expected. Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting have kept the US dollar weak, which has boosted base metals to some extent. However, Trump's new "tariff stick" on August 26 has cooled investors' optimism, causing base metals to rise first and then fall [1]. - **Supply - demand level**: The reverse invoicing problem has tightened scrap supply, which has disrupted the supply side, but the terminal demand outlook is weak. In the short - to - medium term, the weak US dollar supports prices, but the demand outlook is weak. Whether the inventory will start to decline again in the peak season in September remains to be observed. It is recommended to be cautious about short - selling copper and zinc at high prices. In the long term, the expectation of potential incremental stimulus policies in China still exists, and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin still exist, with an expectation of tightening supply - demand, which supports base metal prices [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - **Copper**: Powell's dovish speech has increased the probability of a Fed rate cut in September, boosting copper prices. The supply of copper ore and raw materials is still tight, and the risk of smelter production cuts has increased. Currently in the off - season of downstream demand, the inventory accumulation is not obvious. It is expected that copper prices will be supported in the short term due to low inventory. In the future, copper may show an oscillating pattern [5][6]. - **Alumina**: The smelter's operating capacity has recovered to a high level, the supply - demand balance shows an obvious surplus, and the inventory accumulation trend has expanded. The fundamentals are relatively weak. The spot price has accelerated its decline, and the futures price has significantly decreased to repair the basis. It is expected to be oscillating and under pressure in the future [6]. - **Aluminum**: The short - term US rate cut expectation has increased, and the US dollar index is weak. The domestic policy is in a vacuum period. The supply side has new production capacity coming on stream, and the operating capacity and utilization rate are at a high level. The demand side has an increasing expectation of improved orders as the peak season approaches, but the terminal consumption has not strengthened significantly. The inventory accumulation rhythm has been unstable. It is expected that aluminum prices will be in an oscillating range [8][9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The short - term supply - demand is weak. The cost side is strongly supported as scrap aluminum follows aluminum ingots. The supply side's off - season production has continued to decline, and some recycling aluminum plants have reduced or stopped production. The demand side is still in a strong off - season atmosphere, and downstream procurement is weak. The factory inventory has continued to decline, and the social inventory has increased. The price is expected to be in an oscillating range in the short term, and there is an expectation of an upward movement in the future for ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 [9][10]. - **Zinc**: The macro - level is negative due to the decline in black - series prices, although Powell's speech has put pressure on the US dollar. The short - term zinc ore supply has become looser, and smelters' profitability is good, with strong production willingness. The demand is in the traditional off - season, and the demand outlook is average. In the short term, zinc prices may be in a high - level oscillation, and in the medium - to - long term, they are expected to decline [13]. - **Lead**: The spot discount has slightly narrowed, the supply has slightly tightened due to the reduction in production by some recycling lead plants and transportation restrictions, and the demand has rebounded as some battery factories have ended their high - temperature holidays. It is expected that there will be a slight shortage of supply - demand this week, and the price will be in an oscillating state [14][15][16]. - **Nickel**: The market sentiment dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are marginally weakening. The raw material supply may become looser after the rainy season, and the intermediate product output has recovered. The inventory has accumulated significantly, and the price is under pressure. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to be strong due to the strong performance of the equity market, and short - sellers are expected to exit in the medium - to - long term [19]. - **Stainless Steel**: The nickel - iron price has rebounded, and the chromium - iron price has remained stable. The stainless - steel production has continued to decline, and the inventory pressure has been slightly relieved. It is necessary to pay attention to the realization of demand in the peak season. In the short term, it is expected to be in an oscillating range [21]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is still tight, which strongly supports the bottom of tin prices. However, the terminal demand has weakened marginally in the second half of the year, and the inventory reduction is difficult. It is expected that tin prices will be in an oscillating state, and the volatility may increase in August [22][23]. 3.2行情监测 - The report only lists the names of various metals (copper, alumina, aluminum, aluminum alloy, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin) under this section but does not provide specific monitoring content [25][39][51]. 3.3商品指数 - **综合指数**: The commodity index on August 26, 2025, was 2222.35, a decrease of 0.59%; the commodity 20 index was 2472.77，a decrease of 0.54%; the industrial products index was 2257.74, a decrease of 0.78% [138]. - **特色指数**: No specific content is provided [139]. - **板块指数**: The non - ferrous metals index on August 26, 2025, was 2377.52, with a daily decline of 0.65%, a 5 - day increase of 0.40%, a 1 - month decline of 0.49%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.00% [140].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for specific financial derivatives: - Stock index futures are expected to be "oscillating with a bullish bias" [9] - Stock index options are also expected to be "oscillating with a bullish bias" [10] - Treasury bond futures are expected to be "oscillating" [10] 2. Core View of the Report - The stock market rally is not over, and the sentiment in the bond market has improved. Stock index futures are in high - level oscillations with shrinking capital; stock index option trading remains active, and the skewness indicates that the market rally is not over; the bullish sentiment in the bond market continues [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index opened lower and oscillated, with trading volume shrinking by nearly 500 billion yuan to 2.7 trillion yuan. All four stock index futures varieties reduced their positions by over 10,000 lots [9]. - **Reasons for Oscillations**: High trading volume is not sustainable; during the intensive disclosure period of interim reports, funds are avoiding high - valuation sectors; with the approaching military parade, risk appetite may converge [9]. - **Outlook**: This retracement is defined as an oscillation in a bull market. Loss - making stock price increases, a signal of the end of a bull market, have not appeared. It is recommended to continue holding IM long positions and wait for opportunities to add positions [9]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **Market Situation**: The trading volume of the options market was 14.636 billion yuan, still above the 10 - billion - yuan level. After the decline, the position PCR did not drop significantly, and the skewness index decreased. Volatility is high, with most varieties oscillating at high levels [10][11]. - **Outlook**: The market is still expected to rise. It is recommended to continue holding long - position strategies, such as buying call options or using bull spreads [10][11]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Situation**: Most yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds declined. The central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 17.45 billion yuan, but the inter - bank pledged repurchase rate mostly declined, and the capital market remained loose [4][12]. - **Reasons for Bullish Sentiment**: The decline of the Shanghai Composite Index supported the long - end of the bond market through the stock - bond seesaw effect. This week, trading funds such as fund companies have turned to net buying of bonds [4][12]. - **Outlook**: Short - term risk appetite improvement may disrupt the bond market. It is advisable to focus on opportunities for narrowing long - end basis spreads [4][12]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The economic calendar lists data such as the US new home sales in July 2025, the S&P/CS housing price index of 20 large and medium - sized cities in the US in June, and the expected data of the eurozone's economic sentiment index and consumer confidence index in August [13]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development plans to start the renovation of 25,000 old urban residential areas in 2025, and 19,800 have been started from January to July. Six regions including Hebei and Liaoning have a start - up rate of over 90% [14]. - The State Council issued the "Opinions on Deeply Implementing the 'Artificial Intelligence +' Initiative", proposing to increase financial and fiscal support in the field of artificial intelligence [15][16]. - The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission requires state - owned enterprises to further deepen industrial assistance to Tibet and promote major projects such as the Yaxia Hydropower Project and the Sichuan - Tibet Railway [16]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions monitoring data for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not provided in the given text [17][21][33]

Report Industry Investment Rating No clear investment rating for the entire industry was provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report The chemical sector as a whole continues to oscillate, and the market is awaiting the introduction of specific anti - involution measures from China's petrochemical industry. Although there might be potential policy boosts, it's unclear how much of the supply will be reduced, making it difficult for the chemical industry to embark on a unilateral, independent, and profit - expanding upward trend. Investors should generally approach the market with an oscillatory mindset, waiting for the implementation of specific anti - involution policies in China's petrochemical sector [3][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Overview - The US plans to double tariffs on all Indian imports to punish India for buying Russian oil, and India will maintain most of its Russian oil purchases in the coming weeks. Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have led to a continuous shortage of fuel oil supply in Russia [2]. - The chemical market is in a wait - and - see mode for China's petrochemical anti - involution measures. The olefin industry chain has rebounded in the past two days due to South Korea's naphtha production cuts, but buyers are cautious. Crude oil and coal prices are oscillating, and the chemical industry is unlikely to have a one - sided upward trend [3]. 2. Variety Analysis Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Supply pressure persists, and oil prices are oscillating weakly. - **Main Logic**: API data shows a slight inventory draw in the US. OPEC+ supply is accelerating, US production remains high, and non - US non - OPEC+ output will increase steadily in the second half of the year. Refinery operations in China and the US may decline due to rising refined product inventories, making it difficult for oil prices to rebound. - **Outlook**: Oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly, with attention to short - term disturbances from Russia - Ukraine negotiations [10]. Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: As crude oil prices fall, asphalt futures prices are oscillating downward. - **Main Logic**: The short - term negative impacts of tariff hikes, OPEC production increases, and the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict are overshadowed by the escalation of the situation. The decline in crude oil prices has dampened the bullish sentiment in the asphalt market. The supply shortage problem has been significantly alleviated, and demand remains unoptimistic. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued, and the monthly spread is expected to decline as warehouse receipts increase [11]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: High - sulfur fuel oil prices rose and then fell. - **Main Logic**: The short - term negative impacts are overshadowed by the escalation of the situation. The geopolitical premium of high - sulfur fuel oil has increased but then faced challenges from increased warehouse receipts and falling crude oil prices. There are also factors such as changes in import tariffs and demand. - **Outlook**: Geopolitical upgrades have a short - term impact on prices. Attention should be paid to changes in the Russia - Ukraine situation [12]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the oscillation of crude oil. - **Main Logic**: It is affected by factors such as shipping demand decline, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. It also faces supply increases and demand decreases, and is expected to maintain a low - valuation operation. - **Outlook**: It is affected by green fuel substitution and has limited high - sulfur substitution demand space. Currently, it has a low valuation and will fluctuate with crude oil [13]. PX - **Viewpoint**: The price was disturbed by market rumors and rose then fell. - **Main Logic**: There is no clear cost - side guidance. Market rumors about a large - scale PX device production cut, later proven false, caused the price to fluctuate. In the short term, the low inventory provides support for prices and processing fees. - **Outlook**: Oscillation, with attention to the support level of 6750 - 6800, and mid - line buying on dips is recommended [14]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand pattern has improved month - on - month, and device maintenance is on schedule. - **Main Logic**: The cost side provides support, the supply - demand situation is good, and downstream polyester load is stable. The buying sentiment has led to increased sales, and the peak - season expectation still exists. - **Outlook**: Mid - line buying on dips, with support in the 4700 - 5000 range [15]. Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: In the short term, it follows market sentiment, and in the medium term, it may return to the fundamentals of inventory accumulation. - **Main Logic**: Positive signals from Russia - Ukraine peace talks have weakened the support for oil prices. South Korea plans to overhaul cracking devices, and the naphtha inventory in the ARA hub is high. Although the port inventory of pure benzene is decreasing, the decline rate is slowing, and there are expectations of future inventory pressure. - **Outlook**: In the short term, sentiment dominates, and it may be strong. In the medium term, if no further anti - involution policies are implemented, it may return to the inventory - accumulation fundamentals [17]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: In the short term, it follows commodity sentiment, and with more maintenance, profits may expand. - **Main Logic**: The port inventory increased, causing prices to fall. However, news of capacity reduction in China and South Korea and multiple device maintenance plans have stimulated the market. Although the inventory pressure in East China restricts price increases, there are profit - expansion opportunities from September to October. - **Outlook**: Fundamentally, it is bearish, but short - term short - selling is against the trend due to factors such as production restrictions during the September parade and macro - policy releases [19]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Viewpoint**: Low inventory provides strong price support. - **Main Logic**: The cost side is supportive, the macro - chemical environment is favorable, and there is a peak - season expectation. Although domestic production is increasing, imports are decreasing, and terminal demand is gradually rising, maintaining a stable upward trend in polyester plant operations and an inventory - reduction logic. - **Outlook**: Price oscillation, with the upper pressure at 4600, and the 09 - 01 reverse arbitrage position can be exited [20]. Short Fiber - **Viewpoint**: It awaits cost guidance from upstream products. - **Main Logic**: With strong upstream performance, short - fiber prices follow the upstream. As the peak season approaches in September, there is an inventory - reduction expectation, and the processing fee is expected to have a lower - bound support, with the absolute price oscillating within a range. - **Outlook**: The absolute price follows raw materials and oscillates in the short term [21]. Polyester Bottle Chip - **Viewpoint**: Processing fees are continuously compressed, and profits are shifting upstream. - **Main Logic**: Upstream prices are strong, and polyester bottle - chip processing fees are passively following. With the peak season ending, there is an inventory - accumulation pressure, and processing fees are severely compressed. - **Outlook**: Oscillation, with the absolute price following raw materials [22]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: In the near term, it focuses on the macro - environment, and in the long term, there are still overseas disturbance expectations, with the price oscillating. - **Main Logic**: The price oscillated downward on August 26. Some device restart expectations may affect cost transmission through freight increases. The port inventory has increased, and the domestic inventory is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period last year. Although the policy news has boosted the market, the actual impact on methanol is limited. Considering the high probability of overseas device shutdowns in the long term, long - position opportunities in the far - month contracts can be considered. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation [25]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: Market news is calm, and the market is weakly consolidating. - **Main Logic**: The market fundamentals are stable, and the market is waiting for positive expectations. The spot price in some regions has fallen, but there is also a price - support expectation. - **Outlook**: Oscillation, waiting for the implementation of demand [26]. LLDPE - **Viewpoint**: As oil prices fall, LLDPE oscillates in the short term. - **Main Logic**: News of domestic and South Korean petrochemical capacity reduction has stimulated the market, but the actual impact is limited. Oil prices are oscillating, and the supply pressure persists. There is still capital - game in the macro - environment, and the consumption expectation for the "Golden September and Silver October" exists. The LLDPE fundamentals are under pressure, with high production and inventory. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation, with attention to the peak - season demand [30]. PP - **Viewpoint**: New capacity release and reduced maintenance lead to an oscillatory decline. - **Main Logic**: News of capacity reduction has stimulated the market, but the actual impact is limited. Oil prices are oscillating downward, and the supply pressure persists. PP supply is increasing, and there is inventory pressure in the upstream and mid - stream. Demand is in the off - peak to peak - season transition, and the start - up rate is lower than in previous years, with cautious purchasing. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation [31]. PL - **Viewpoint**: In the short term, it follows the oscillation of PP. - **Main Logic**: The olefin market has been boosted by news from China and South Korea. The inventory of propylene enterprises in Shandong is controllable, and the price is stable. The downstream follows demand, and the market is affected by the macro - environment and coal - price rebounds. The processing fee between PP and PL is a key focus. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation [32]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment is boosted, and PVC is weakly stabilizing. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, there are anti - involution expectations in China and an increased probability of overseas interest - rate cuts. At the micro - level, the PVC fundamentals are under pressure. Production is decreasing due to autumn maintenance, downstream start - up is stable, export expectations are under pressure, and the cost is weakly stable. - **Outlook**: Wide - range oscillation, with market - sentiment improvement as the driving force and inventory accumulation as the pressure [37]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The spot - price rebound has slowed, and near - month long positions should be liquidated. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, there are anti - involution expectations in China and an，

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [5]. - The mid - term outlooks for individual varieties such as iron ore, coke, etc. are also "oscillation" [7][8][10][11] Core Viewpoints - The black market has limited upside potential due to weak terminal demand expectations, but there is support from supply disruptions and downstream restocking needs. The market will mainly oscillate, and attention should be paid to policy implementation and terminal demand performance [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Overall Market Analysis - The black market's upward movement lacks drive, with the previous day's gains mostly erased and coking coal leading the decline. Supply constraints for furnace materials remain, and the downside space for prices is limited. Steel apparent demand is weak, and it is in the restocking window before the peak season. If there is topic - driven news, there is a small rebound space; otherwise, it will oscillate. Attention should be paid to future demand and furnace material supply recovery [1]. By Variety Iron Ore - Overseas mine shipments decreased, 45 - port arrivals slightly declined, and total supply is relatively stable. Iron ore demand is expected to remain high as iron - making water production increases slightly. Port inventories decreased slightly. With limited negative driving factors in the fundamentals, prices are expected to oscillate [2][7][8]. Coking Coal - Some coal mines have resumed production, but some are still restricted by accidents and safety inspections. Import volumes are high but have recently declined briefly. Coking coal's short - term rigid demand has slightly decreased, and some mines have inventory accumulation, but overall inventory pressure is not significant. The short - term futures market still has support [2][12]. Coke - The eighth round of price increases has started, with regional differentiation. Some areas' coking production is restricted. Upstream coking enterprises' inventories are still low, and short - term supply and demand remain tight under simultaneous coking and steel production restrictions. Before the parade, the futures market still has support [11]. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Before the parade, manufacturers' raw material restocking is nearly finished, port prices are loosening, and supply pressure is increasing. In the long - term, the supply - demand relationship may become looser, and prices may face downward pressure [2]. - **Silicon Iron**: The current market inventory pressure is not large, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate. However, in the long - term, the supply - demand gap is expected to be filled, and there are concerns in the fundamentals [2]. Glass - After the futures price decline, the spot market sentiment has cooled. Supply is expected to remain stable, and there is some inventory accumulation upstream. Cost support has strengthened due to rising coal prices, but the fundamentals are still weak, and short - term futures and spot prices are expected to oscillate widely [2][13]. Soda Ash - The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. After the futures price decline, spot trading volume has increased slightly. In the long - term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [2][5][15]. Scrap Steel - The arrival volume at steel mills has decreased, and the fundamentals' contradictions are not prominent. Due to the pressure on finished product prices, electric furnace profits are low, but resources are still tight, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate [9].