Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] Core Viewpoints - During the Two Sessions, the expectation of policy - driven stable growth provides demand support for the infrastructure and manufacturing sectors, and the "anti - involution" policy adjustment strengthens the price bottom support. Geopolitical risks increase energy valuations and shipping costs, strengthening cost - side support. However, the current steel inventory is relatively high year - on - year, the fundamental contradictions remain unresolved, the peak - season expectations are still cautious, the first round of coke price cuts has started, and there is still pressure on coking coal supply, so the upward driving force of the sector is limited [1] - Overall, it is still the off - season, the fundamentals lack highlights, the peak - season expectations are cautious, the upward driving force of the market is limited, and there is a risk of a high - level correction after the price rally. Attention should be paid to geopolitical risks and the realization of peak - season demand [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: The supply - side shipments have recovered but there are still disturbance expectations. The pressure of high shipments and high inventory is difficult to relieve in the short term. With the end of the Spring Festival, the weight of fundamental pricing is expected to increase. After the weakening of macro disturbances, the fundamental pressure is still large, and iron ore is expected to oscillate weakly [2][8] - **Scrap Steel**: The short - term supply - demand weakness pattern in the scrap steel market is gradually improving. Demand recovery is slightly faster than supply, and the fundamentals provide some support for prices, which are expected to oscillate [2][9] 2. Carbon Element - **Coke**: Although there are short - term disturbances in hot metal, there is still long - term rigid demand support for coke. After the first round of spot price cuts, the possibility of further cuts is small, and the futures market is expected to follow the cost - side coking coal [2][11] - **Coking Coal**: The resumption of coal mines is still restricted, but under the high import of Mongolian coal, there is still real - world pressure on the fundamentals of coking coal. The spot is expected to run weakly and stably, and the futures price is expected to oscillate widely [2][12] 3. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon market has strong supply and weak demand, with insufficient fundamental support. There is resistance in cost - side downward transmission, and the upstream inventory is high. There is obvious selling - hedging pressure above the futures price, and there is a risk of correction when the futures price rises above the cost line [2][16] - **Silicon Iron**: The silicon iron market has weak supply and demand, and the fundamental driving force is limited. Continuous price increases may accelerate the resumption of production by manufacturers, weakening the supply - demand relationship. There is a risk of high - level correction when the futures valuation quickly recovers above the cost line [2][17] 4. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Supply still has disturbance expectations, but the inventory of middle and downstream is moderately high. The current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no obvious improvement in demand after the Lantern Festival, high inventory will always suppress prices [3][6][13] - **Soda Ash**: Supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will decline, promoting capacity reduction [6][13][15] 5. Steel - The spot market is gradually recovering. After the Spring Festival, the output of rebar has increased, but the output of hot - rolled coils has decreased slightly. The overall output of the five major steel products has changed little. Demand is slowly recovering, but it is still at a low level. Steel inventories continue to accumulate, and the fundamental contradictions need time to be resolved. The upward driving force of the market is limited, and attention should be paid to the peak - season demand [8] 6. Commodity Index - On March 5, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities showed that the commodity index was 2510.23, up 1.04%; the commodity 20 index was 2869.81, up 1.11%; the industrial products index was 2430.86, up 1.36%. The steel industry chain index on March 5, 2026, was 1929.45, with a daily increase of 0.38%, a 5 - day increase of 1.42%, a 1 - month decrease of 2.30%, and a year - to - date decrease of 2.36% [102][104]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current domestic macro - environment in China is generally favorable, serving as the core support for risk assets in Q1. Overseas, the focus is on the Walsh trade, US tariff developments, and Middle East geopolitical tensions. It is recommended to moderately increase risk appetite and enhance offensive positioning within a balanced framework [7][8][9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 February Review of Major Assets - Global major asset classes in February shifted towards "structural divergence". In the equity market, A - shares outperformed overall with style differences, mid - cap and small - to - mid cap segments led, while large - cap indices lagged. Hong Kong stocks were weak, tech sector retreats were notable. Developed markets in overseas equities diverged, emerging markets performed better. In the bond market, rate - sensitive assets were stable. In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar strengthened, pressuring non - dollar currencies. In the commodity market, it was overall weak but with structural features [14][15][18]. 3.2 Market Focus: The Unfolding of the "Walsh Trade" - The market's perception of Kevin Walsh's trading legacy has evolved. The "Walsh Trade" was initially characterized by a bull flattening of the yield curve. The key contention is the feasibility of "rate cuts + QT". If QT triggers a liquidity crisis, it may invalidate Walsh's policy framework. His policy mix is more supportive of growth - oriented equities but may pressure long - dated bonds [22][24][25]. 3.3 Macro Environment Outlook 3.3.1 Overseas Macro - Global manufacturing PMI edged up in January to 50.9. US macro data in January showed signs of a "Goldilocks" scenario with inflation softening, unemployment rate declining, and employment data improving. Q4 GDP missed expectations but the effects of rate cuts may be materializing. Tariff developments added market uncertainty, and the legal effect of a court decision on tariffs may take effect from mid - March to early April [26][30][33]. 3.3.2 Chinese Domestic Macro - The domestic macroeconomic outlook will remain generally supportive in Q1, with favorable investment environment for risk assets. Policy expectations for a strong start to the 15th Five - Year Plan and anticipated inflation rebound are the core themes, and economic structural transformation and upgrading are long - term drivers [36]. 3.4 Outlook for Major Assets 3.4.1 Stock Index - In March, the domestic equity market is likely to continue its volatile yet upward movement. Policy acceleration, recovering inflation, and economic structural transformation are the driving factors. It is recommended to overweight IC [39]. 3.4.2 Commodities - **Precious Metals**: In March, geopolitical trading and tariff adjustments will drive the market. Precious metals may trend higher with gold receiving stronger impetus from geopolitical factors [44]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Geopolitical factors may support non - ferrous metals. Prices may be volatile but biased higher. Copper, aluminum, and tin may see price centers shift upward [50]. - **Ferrous Metals**: In March, there will be a tug - of - war between inventory trends and policy expectations. Ferrous metals are expected to trade in wide ranges, and iron ore faces significant downside pressure [54]. - **Energy & Chemicals**: Oil prices will enter a validation phase for geopolitical supply disruption concerns. Chemical products have limited downside and merit attention [59]. 3.4.3 Bonds - In March, short - duration bonds are likely to outperform medium - to long - duration bonds, and overall asset payoff is modest. Future rate - cut space appears limited [64]. 3.5 Strategic Asset Allocation Recommendations - In March, moderately increase risk appetite and adopt a more aggressive posture on a balanced allocation framework. Overweight mid - cap style in domestic equity indices (focus on IC), have a neutral stance on government bonds with a standard long position in the short end (focus on TS), overweight non - ferrous metals, have a standard long in the chemical chain, and a standard short in ferrous metals. Overweight gold futures and have a standard position in silver futures [68][69][70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market continued to decline with rising volatility, and the short - end of the bond market remained strong [2]. - For stock index futures, the rebound failed. The equity market was weak on Wednesday, with the morning rebound not continuing, trading volume dropping to 2.4 trillion. The previously strong dividend index saw a supplementary decline, and the oil and gas sector's chips loosened. The CSI 500 was stable and relatively resistant to decline during the day. There are liquidity concerns globally, and the stabilization of the South Korean market may be a sign for this round of the market. As the Two Sessions approach, the market will trade on policy expectations, with expanding domestic demand and supporting the technology sector as the main lines, but new policy statements are more important. The PCR ratio of major options continued to rise, indicating that risk may not be fully released [3][10]. - For stock index options, the downward trend with rising volatility continued. The underlying market remained weak on Wednesday, with the total turnover of financial options at 117.8 billion yuan, slightly lower than Tuesday. The implied volatility of various options mostly increased, showing a negative correlation with the index. The PCR ratio of most options continued to rise, with significant increases in call option positions, but the skewness did not show an obvious return. Due to the current uncertainties at home and abroad and the lack of signs of stabilization in the underlying, the implied volatility still has room to rise, so the operation should continue to hedge and defend against the risk of increased market volatility [4][10]. - For treasury bond futures, the short - end of the bond market remained strong. Most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures rose yesterday, and the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds declined overall, with a larger decline at the short - end. Although the central bank continued to withdraw liquidity in the open - market operations, the inter - bank market liquidity was still relatively loose at the beginning of the month, and the short - end showed strong certainty. The weakening of the equity market due to risk - aversion sentiment supported the bond market through the stock - bond seesaw effect. The February manufacturing PMI data was slightly lower than expected, also supporting the bullish sentiment in the bond market. In the short term, the bond market may be affected by risk - aversion sentiment, but with the approaching of important meetings, policy speculation may heat up, and the bond market may be volatile. The strategy should focus on arbitrage in the short term, such as the convergence opportunity of the 30 - 10Y treasury bond term spread [4][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: The view is that the rebound failed. The logic is based on the weak operation of the equity market, changes in trading volume, the performance of the dividend index and the oil and gas sector, global liquidity concerns, and approaching policy expectations. The operation suggestion is to hold IM with half - position, and the risk point is insufficient incremental funds. The outlook is volatile [10]. - **Stock Index Options**: The view is that the downward trend with rising volatility continued. The logic is based on the weak underlying market, changes in option turnover, implied volatility, and sentiment indicators. The operation suggestion is to use option - buying for defense, and the risk factor is insufficient liquidity in the option market. The outlook is volatile [10]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The view is that the short - end of the bond market remained strong. The logic is based on the performance of treasury bond futures contracts, changes in bond yields, central bank operations, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and PMI data. The operation suggestions include a trend strategy of being volatile, a hedging strategy of paying attention to short - selling hedging at low basis levels, a basis strategy of paying attention to ultra - long - end arbitrage opportunities, and a curve strategy of paying attention to the flattening of the 30Y - 10Y yield curve. The risk factors are excessive supply of ultra - long bonds, unexpected stock market rise, and unexpected monetary policy. The outlook is volatile [11]. 3.2 Derivatives Market Monitoring - **Stock Index Futures Data**: No specific content provided. - **Stock Index Options Data**: No specific content provided. - **Treasury Bond Futures Data**: No specific content provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - On March 4, 2026, the platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange fell 4.55% to 563.50 yuan/gram, and the palladium main contract fell 2.78% to 433.80 yuan/gram [1] - The platinum price is expected to be volatile and bullish in the medium - to - long term due to fundamental resilience and the weakening of the US dollar's credit. The palladium price is also expected to be volatile and bullish in the medium - to - long term, with spot shortages and the weakening of the US dollar's credit [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum - **Price**: On March 4, 2026, the platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange fell 4.55% to 563.50 yuan/gram [1] - **Main Logic**: The tense situation in the Middle East, especially the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, has increased global energy transportation costs and oil prices. If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for a long time, it may lead to global inflation, delayed Fed rate cuts, and increased economic recession risks. The short - term safe - haven sentiment supports the platinum price. In the long run, the damage to the Fed's independence and the loosening of the global political and economic order will weaken the US dollar index, which is beneficial to the release of platinum price elasticity [2] - **Outlook**: Volatile and bullish [2] Palladium - **Price**: On March 4, 2026, the palladium main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange fell 2.78% to 433.80 yuan/gram [1] - **Main Logic**: There is continued uncertainty on the supply side. The US has imposed anti - dumping duties on Russian palladium, and Europe is considering new sanctions on Russian palladium. The supply disruption supports the price. On the demand side, palladium still faces structural pressure. In general, the long - term supply - demand of palladium tends to be loose, with short - term supply disruptions, and it mainly follows the overall fluctuations of the precious metals sector [3] - **Outlook**: Volatile and bullish [3] Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: No specific data provided - **Special Index**: The commodity index was 2484.31, up 0.06%; the commodity 20 index was 2838.28, down 0.33%; the industrial products index was 2398.32, up 1.42% [50] Plate Index - **Non - ferrous Metals Index**: On March 4, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2699.72. The daily decline was 0.64%, the decline in the past 5 days was 0.71%, the decline in the past month was 5.23%, and the increase since the beginning of the year was 0.51% [52]

Report Summary Core View - EIA data shows that in the week ending February 27 in the US, commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.475 million barrels, while crude oil production decreased by 0.6 thousand barrels per day. The refinery utilization rate rose from 88.6% to 89.2%, and crude oil processing volume increased by 180 thousand barrels per day. The rate of inventory accumulation slowed down compared to the previous week. After the refinery utilization rate dropped from its previous high, the pressure on refined product inventories weakened. Weekly gasoline inventories continued to decline, while diesel inventories increased slightly. The total inventories of crude oil and petroleum products continued to rise, but the single - week data has limited implications [4]. Data Summary - **Inventory Changes**: US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 3.475 million barrels (previous value: 15.989 million barrels increase), Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 1.564 million barrels (previous value: 0.881 million barrels increase), strategic petroleum inventory had no change, gasoline inventory decreased by 1.704 million barrels (previous value: 1.011 million barrels decrease), diesel inventory increased by 0.429 million barrels (previous value: 0.252 million barrels increase), jet fuel inventory decreased by 0.248 million barrels (previous value: 1.44 million barrels decrease), fuel oil inventory increased by 1.684 million barrels (previous value: 0.107 million barrels decrease), and the inventory of crude oil and petroleum products (excluding SPR) increased by 2.935 million barrels (previous value: 11.179 million barrels increase) [4][6]. - **Production and Demand**: US crude oil production was 13.696 million barrels per day (previous value: 13.702 million barrels per day), refined product apparent demand was 19.867 million barrels per day (previous value: 21.455 million barrels per day), gasoline apparent demand was 8.292 million barrels per day (previous value: 8.733 million barrels per day), diesel apparent demand was 3.698 million barrels per day (previous value: 3.895 million barrels per day), crude oil imports were 6.324 million barrels per day (previous value: 6.659 million barrels per day), and crude oil exports were 3.997 million barrels per day (previous value: 4.313 million barrels per day) [6]. - **Refinery Data**: US refinery crude oil processing volume was 15.841 million barrels per day (previous value: 15.661 million barrels per day), and the refinery utilization rate was 89.2% (previous value: 88.6%) [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term sentiment of natural rubber is weakening, and attention should be paid to the strength of support levels. The market is expected to remain volatile [1][8][9]. - The external market of oils and fats is stagnant in rising, and the trend is volatile. Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. It is recommended to focus on the phased low - buying strategy [1][5]. - The spot of protein meal continues to be weak, and the double - meal futures market fluctuates. Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to be volatile, with short - term adjustment pressure [5]. - Weather affects the supply of corn, and the futures and spot prices continue to be strong. In the short term, the price is expected to be volatile and strong; in the medium term, the overall trend is bullish [5][6][7]. - The average daily pig slaughter increases in March, and the pig price is running weakly. It is expected to be volatile and weak in the short - term, and the pig cycle may bottom out and pick up in the second half of 2026 [7]. - The synthetic rubber sector atmosphere remains strong, and the short - term trend is expected to be strong [10]. - Cotton continues to consolidate. In the long - run, the cotton price is expected to be volatile and strong [10]. - The sugar price may fluctuate in the short - term and is expected to be volatile and weak in the medium - to - long term [11]. - Overseas pulp mill shutdowns stimulate the pulp futures market to rise, and it is expected to be volatile [12][13]. - Paper mills support the price of double - offset paper, and the market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, with a trend of rising first and then falling from March to May [13][15]. - The cost of logs increases, and the market is expected to be volatile within a certain range [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **Logic**: The US soybean and soybean oil futures are volatile and stagnant. The US soybean oil inventory in January was 2.43 billion pounds, a month - on - month increase of 11.7% and a year - on - year increase of 33.9%. The fundamentals of palm oil are mixed, and the production may recover in March. The price of rapeseed oil is expected to follow the overall trend of oils and fats [5]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [5]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **Logic**: Internationally, geopolitical factors and bio - fuel policies affect the price of US soybeans. Domestically, the trading volume of double - meal futures decreases, but the cost supports the price. The spot market is weak [5]. - **Outlook**: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to be volatile [5]. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - **Logic**: The supply is limited due to farmers' reluctance to sell, and the downstream has replenishment demand. However, imported grains and wheat may affect the price [6][7]. - **Outlook**: Volatile and strong in the short - term, and bullish in the medium - term [6][7]. 3.1.4 Pigs - **Logic**: The supply is excessive in the short - to - medium term, the demand is weak after the festival, and the inventory weight increases [7]. - **Outlook**: Volatile and weak in the short - term, and the price may rise in the second half of 2026 [7]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **Logic**: The price decline is due to the overall commodity sentiment and tire export news. However, the support from synthetic rubber and the upcoming low - production season limit the decline [1][8][9]. - **Outlook**: Volatile [1][8][9]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: Affected by geopolitical events and the overall market atmosphere, the BR futures market remains high. The supply of butadiene is expected to be tight in the first half of 2026 [10]. - **Outlook**: Volatile and strong in the short - term [10]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **Logic**: In the short - term, there is a lack of new driving forces. In the long - run, the domestic supply - demand is in tight balance, and the international supply is expected to tighten [10]. - **Outlook**: Volatile and strong [10]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **Logic**: The global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus in the 25/26 season. Although the conflict in the Middle East supports the price, the long - term trend is still weak [11]. - **Outlook**: Volatile and weak [11]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **Logic**: Overseas mill shutdowns stimulate the price, but the current demand is weak. The future demand may improve seasonally, and the supply and import cost factors are mixed [12][13]. - **Outlook**: Volatile [12][13]. 3.1.10 Double - Offset Paper - **Logic**: Paper mills support the price, and the market trading volume increases. The supply and demand are expected to increase from March to April, and the price may rise first and then fall from March to May [13][15]. - **Outlook**: Volatile [13][15]. 3.1.11 Logs - **Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts increase the cost, and the domestic inventory is low. The short - term change is limited, and the price may be under pressure after the peak season [16]. - **Outlook**: Volatile [16]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring No specific data analysis content is provided in the given text, only variety names are listed, so no detailed summary can be made. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on March 4, 2026 shows that the special index includes the commodity index (2484.31, + 0.06%), the commodity 20 index (2838.28, - 0.33%), and the industrial products index (2398.32, + 1.42%). The agricultural product index is 949.03, with a daily increase of 0.14%, a 5 - day increase of 0.49%, a 1 - month increase of 0.55%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.71% [177][178]. - **PPI Commodity Index**: The PPI commodity index is 1424.97, with a 0.05% increase [180].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillating" [7] 2. Core View of the Report - The cost side is strongly supported due to the convening of the Two Sessions, geopolitical disturbances, rising energy valuations, and increasing shipping costs. Iron ore and alloy prices are strong, and steel prices are firm. However, real - world demand lacks highlights, coking coal demand release is limited, the first round of coke price cuts has begun, and the fundamentals of glass and soda ash still face pressure, with the futures market struggling to rise [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Supply**: Overseas mine shipments have increased slightly and remain at a high level. The current arrival at ports is low but is expected to rebound. There are still hurricane disturbances in Australia. The supply of scrap steel is in a seasonal recovery stage [4][9]. - **Demand**: The resumption and maintenance of blast furnaces are staggered, and the iron - water output has increased significantly. The profitability of steel mills has slightly recovered, and the rigid demand has marginally increased. During the Two Sessions, production in some regions will be restricted, affecting the recovery rhythm of iron - water. The demand for scrap steel is also in a seasonal recovery stage [4][9]. - **Inventory**: Iron ore port inventory has increased, and the inventory at steel mills has decreased significantly. The inventory of scrap steel at steel mills has also decreased, and some steel mills have rigid restocking needs [4][9][11]. - **Outlook**: Iron ore is expected to oscillate weakly. Scrap steel prices may oscillate within a narrow range [4][10][11]. 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke** - **Supply**: Coking profits are stable, but during the Two Sessions, some coke oven production capacity may be restricted, and supply may decrease slightly [13]. - **Demand**: The resumption and maintenance of steel - mill blast furnaces coexist, and the overall number of resumed furnaces is more than that of maintained ones. However, production restrictions during the Two Sessions may drag down the recovery of iron - water, but there is still rigid demand support [13]. - **Inventory**: Before the festival, inventory replenishment at all links was basically in place. During the festival, steel mills consumed their own inventory, and coke enterprises accumulated inventory. With the recovery of logistics, the inventory pressure is acceptable [13]. - **Outlook**: In the long term, both supply and demand of coke are expected to increase slightly. In the short term, the supply - demand structure will remain healthy. After the first - round price cut, the possibility of further cuts is small, and the futures market will follow the cost of coking coal [14]. - **Coking Coal** - **Supply**: Most domestic coal mines have resumed production, and the import of Mongolian coal has returned to normal, with overall imports remaining high [15]. - **Demand**: Coke production has increased slightly. Before the festival, mid - and downstream inventory replenishment was basically completed. During the Spring Festival, there was little procurement, and most enterprises consumed in - house inventory. With the accelerated resumption of coal - mine production, the upstream has slightly accumulated inventory [15]. - **Outlook**: After the Spring Festival, the resumption speed of coal mines will accelerate, but the supply level is still limited. The fundamentals of coking coal face pressure, but the overall contradiction is not prominent. Spot prices are expected to be weakly stable, and the futures market is expected to oscillate widely due to capital sentiment [15]. 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon** - **Cost**: The price of manganese ore is strong, and the cost of manganese silicon is gradually rising [18]. - **Demand**: Steel production is increasing, but the resumption rhythm of some steel mills may be affected during major meetings. Steel mills will first digest their previous raw - material inventory, and the restocking demand recovers slowly [18]. - **Supply**: The start - up of southern manufacturers remains low, but the production control in the north is limited, and with the continuous release of new production capacity, market inventory may further accumulate [18]. - **Outlook**: The market has strong supply and weak demand, with insufficient fundamental support. There is resistance in cost transmission, and there is significant selling - hedging pressure above the futures market. When the futures price rises above the cost line, there is a risk of a callback [18]. - **Silicon Iron** - **Cost**: There is an expectation of rising energy prices, and the cost support for silicon iron is expected to strengthen [19]. - **Demand**: Steel production is increasing, but the resumption rhythm of some steel mills may be affected during major meetings. Steel mills will first digest their previous raw - material inventory, and the restocking demand recovers slowly. The demand for steel - making has limited support for silicon - iron prices. The production of magnesium metal remains high, and the price of magnesium ingots is firm [19]. - **Supply**: The daily output of silicon iron is still at a low level, and the upstream inventory pressure is limited. However, with the strengthening of the futures market and the increasing steel production, manufacturers' willingness to resume production is increasing [19]. - **Outlook**: The market has weak supply and demand, with limited fundamental contradictions and insufficient driving forces. Continuous price increases may accelerate the resumption of production by manufacturers, leading to a marginal weakening of the supply - demand relationship. There is a risk of a high - level callback when the futures valuation quickly recovers above the cost line [19]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Supply**: The spot price is low, and glass manufacturers are in large - scale losses. In the long term, the daily melting volume should show a downward trend [16]. - **Demand**: After the Spring Festival, downstream demand has not recovered, and real demand needs to be verified after the Lantern Festival. The mid - stream inventory is large, and the downstream inventory is neutral, with limited restocking ability [16]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate. There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. Currently, supply exceeds demand. If there is no obvious improvement in demand after the Lantern Festival, high inventory will always suppress prices [16]. - **Soda Ash** - **Supply**: The daily output increased yesterday, and supply remains high in the short term [16]. - **Demand**: Heavy - soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement. There is an expectation of a decline in glass daily melting volume, corresponding to a weakening of heavy - soda ash demand. The downstream procurement of light - soda ash has not changed significantly [16]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the pattern of oversupply will intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [16]. 3.5 Steel - **Supply**: After the festival, with the gradual resumption of electric - arc furnaces, the output of rebar is expected to increase month - on - month, and the supply pressure of steel will gradually increase [9]. - **Demand**: In the off - season and affected by the holiday, the recovery of post - festival demand still takes time. Currently, the demand for building materials is at a seasonal low, and the demand for the manufacturing industry is also in the off - season. The downstream restocking willingness is low, and the overall demand is at a low level [9]. - **Inventory**: After the festival, steel inventory continues to accumulate, especially the inventory of rebar. The overall inventory level is still moderately high, and the fundamental contradiction has not been alleviated [9]. - **Outlook**: Currently, the fundamental contradiction has not been alleviated, and the expectation for the peak season is still cautious. With the convening of the Two Sessions and many geopolitical disturbances, there is still uncertainty in the macro - environment. The futures market is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the policy expectations of important meetings and the recovery of demand [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The market is in a trading phase of "geopolitical risk premium + uncertain interest rate path", and precious metals maintain high - level volatility [1]. - If the Middle - East conflict shows no clear signs of easing in the short term, gold still has hedging allocation value, but rising energy prices may limit its upside [2]. - Silver shows elastic repair in high volatility. If risk - aversion sentiment rises, it may maintain high volatility and elasticity in the precious - metal sector [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Gold - **View**: Geopolitical conflicts continue, and funds allocate gold on dips [1]. - **Logic**: - The Middle - East conflict is in its fifth day, with high - level regional security risks providing continuous hedging premium for gold [1]. - After a phased correction due to the previous dollar rebound and rising interest - rate expectations, bargain - hunting buyers quickly entered the market, indicating an increase in allocation funds [1]. - CFTC data shows that the net long positions of hedge funds and asset management institutions in gold are close to a ten - year low, limiting the downside space [1]. - **Outlook**: If the Middle - East conflict doesn't ease soon, gold has hedging value, but rising energy prices may limit its upside. Short - term gold prices may maintain high - level volatility with potential for increased volatility [2]. Silver - **View**: Elastic repair in high volatility [3]. - **Logic**: - Precious metals are supported by geopolitical risks, and silver rebounds in tandem with gold [3]. - After a more than 8% decline in the previous trading day, there is a technical repair demand, and the rebound is larger with capital replenishment [3]. - The industrial attribute of silver provides some demand support due to the global economic resilience, giving it high elasticity in the precious - metal sector [3]. - **Outlook**: If risk - aversion sentiment rises, silver may maintain high volatility and elasticity; if interest - rate expectations strengthen, silver price volatility may intensify, maintaining a high - volatility oscillation pattern [3]. Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: - The commodity index is 2484.31, up 0.06% [45]. - The commodity 20 index is 2838.28, down 0.33% [45]. - The industrial products index is 2398.32, up 1.42% [45]. - **Precious - Metal Index (on 2026 - 03 - 04)**: - The index value is 4373.45, with a daily decline of 4.80%, a 5 - day decline of 2.78%, a 1 - month decline of 12.39%, and a year - to - date increase of 14.36% [47].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 n ⻛险提⽰：1）地缘冲突加剧风险；2）关税冲突广泛升级；3）国内增 量政策和经济修复不及预期；4）美联储货币政策大幅偏离预期 • 中信期货研究 | 晨报 2026-03-05 地缘冲突仍是短期主导，关注今⽇"两 会"经济⽬标 海外继续关注中东局势，国内关注今日"两会"政府经济工作目标的制 定。 n 海外宏观：海外消费信⼼修复、⼯业订单分化、地缘与制度⻛险升温。 2月美国谘商会消费者信心回升，显示消费韧性仍在，限制"衰退交易" 空间。12月工厂订单总量回落，但剔除运输后转为增长，非国防资本品（ 剔除飞机）继续扩张，核心资本开支保持韧性，对工业金属形成支撑。与 此同时，围绕沃什人选的政策讨论发酵，风险溢价影响美元与利率定价； 叠加特朗普强化对伊朗立场并出现以色列对伊朗空袭，中东局势升温，推 升能源与避险溢价。整体呈现"增长未失速、政策与地缘风险抬升"的格 局。 • n 国内宏观：国内政策协同强化、消费⾼频偏暖、地产边际改善，关注今 ⽇"两会"政府经济⼯作⽬标的制定。2月财政与货币投放高于季节性， 流动性环境偏稳，有利于短端利率表现。出口平稳，春节期间出行与消费 活 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 4, equity index futures showed low performances, while commodities were mixed, with Precious Metals leading the drop [11][13]. - The strengthening US Dollar Index weighed on platinum prices, and the US - Iran tensions have continued to roil the precious metals market [33][34]. - Poly - Silicon prices have broken below the cost support level, and in the short - term, prices are under pressure, but may gradually recover in the medium - term [27][29]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On March 4, in equity index futures, IH dropped 1.3% and IF dropped 1.2%; in CGB futures, TF rose 0.08% and TL dropped 0.01%. In commodity futures, the top three gainers were SCFIS(Europe), Crude Oil and Fuel Oil, while the top three decliners were Tin, Platinum and Poly - Silicon [11][13]. 1.2 Daily Drop 1.2.1 Silver - On March 4, the main contract of Silver dropped 4.4% to 21,854 yuan/g. Silver's high beta characteristic has amplified price volatility. Geopolitical risks, energy price trends, and air transportation disruptions have affected silver prices. If risk premiums persist and energy prices remain high, silver will retain resilience; if the US dollar and yields strengthen, silver prices may correct more than gold [18][20][21]. 1.2.2 Poly - Silicon - Poly - Silicon prices have been sliding since the New Year. On March 4, the main poly - silicon futures contract dropped 4.5% to 42,200 yuan/ton. Market expectations of "anti - cutthroat competition" have wavered, and demand has been weak. Supply has decreased in February, and is expected to remain low in March. In the short - term, prices are under pressure, but may gradually recover in the medium - term [24][25][27]. 1.2.3 Platinum - On March 4, the main contract of Platinum dropped 4.5% to 563.5 yuan/g. The strengthening US Dollar Index weighed on platinum prices. The US - Iran tensions have roiled the precious metals market. In the medium - to long - term, platinum prices are expected to trend upward with fluctuations [33][34][37]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - The 4th Session of the 14th National People's Congress will open on the morning of March 5 and last for 8 days. In February, the Manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; the Non - Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage point; the Composite PMI Output Index was 49.5%, down 0.3 percentage points [40][41]. 2.2 Industry News - Multiple exchanges adjusted price limits and trading margin ratios for various futures contracts on March 4, including INE (crude oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, SCFIS(Europe)), SHFE (fuel oil), DCE (LPG, ethenylbenzene, ethylene glycol), and ZCE (methanol) [46][48][49].