投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2026-01-27 美元指数破位下行，基本金属再获提振 有⾊观点：美元指数破位下⾏，基本⾦属再获提振 交易逻辑：近期公布的经济数据整体偏正面，尽管特朗普在局部区域仍较 为活跃，但美元指数破位下跌，投资者风险偏好有所抬升，整体上看，宏 观面预期较为稳定。原料端延续偏紧局面；冶炼端仍有扰动预期，整体供 应端支撑较强。终端偏弱，在两新补贴发放及抢出口预期背景下，需求有 改善预期，春节前下游有逢低备库需求，近期国内累库逐步放缓。整体来 看，中短期，库存偏高对价格有压力；不过，弱美元预期+供应扰动担忧 逻辑没变，并且美元指数破位下跌，可继续关注铜铝锡镍择机低吸做多机 会；长期，国内潜在增量刺激政策预期仍在，并且铜铝锡供应扰动问题仍 在，供需仍有趋紧预期，看好铜铝锡价格走势。 铜观点：库存持续累积，铜价⾼位震荡。 氧化铝观点：基本⾯偏弱，氧化铝价震荡承压。 铝观点：库存延续累积，铝价⾼位震荡。 铝合⾦观点：成本⽀撑延续，盘⾯⾼位震荡。 锌观点：有⾊板块情绪好转，锌价企稳反弹。 铅观点：社会库存累积VS有⾊板块情绪较好，铅价震荡运⾏。 镍观点： ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently affected by geopolitical disturbances and a weak US dollar, platinum and palladium prices have significantly increased with the precious metals sector [1]. - The short - term trends of platinum and palladium are expected to be oscillatingly strong, and investors can consider low - buying opportunities, but should be wary of increased short - term price volatility [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Platinum - As of January 26, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 744.7 yuan/gram, with a 9.68% increase [1]. - Main logic: Geopolitical and trade frictions have damaged market confidence in US government policy stability and US dollar credit. The strengthening of the Japanese yen has also pressured the US dollar. The nomination of the new Fed chairman and US tariff expectations for platinum and palladium are key market factors. In the future, South Africa, the main supplier of platinum - group metals, faces risks in power supply and extreme weather. The platinum market is in a structural expansion phase, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, the hydrogen energy industry as a future growth point, and expanding demand in jewelry and investment. The "interest rate cut + soft landing" combination will amplify long - term price elasticity [2]. - Outlook: Oscillatingly strong, as the supply - demand fundamentals are healthy and the macro - expectations are positive [2]. Palladium - As of January 26, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 534.8 yuan/gram, with a 7.17% increase [1]. - Main logic: Besides the weak US dollar and geopolitical disturbances, the supply side has significant uncertainties. The US Department of Commerce's report on unforged palladium imported from Russia has not been released, and the spot shortage continues to support prices. In the short term, palladium shows significant structural pressure. Although the long - term supply - demand is loosening, the short - term spot shortage and the Fed's re - entry into the interest rate cut cycle support the bottom of the palladium price [3]. - Outlook: Oscillatingly strong, due to the spot shortage and relatively favorable macro - environment [3]. Index Information - On January 26, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities was presented, including the commodity index (2503.03, +1.13%), the commodity 20 index (2879.55, +1.44%), and the industrial products index (2369.84, +0.40%) [49]. - The non - ferrous metals index on January 26, 2026, had a daily increase of +0.07%, a 5 - day increase of +1.31%, a 1 - month increase of +7.62%, and a year - to - date increase of +5.37% [51].

General Information - Report Title: Exchange Rate High-Frequency Tracking [1] - Analysts: Zhang Jing (Qualification No. F3022617, Investment Consultation No. Z0013604), Cheng Xiaoqing (Qualification No. F3083989, Investment Consultation No. Z0018635) [2] Report Core View - The recent upward movement of the 10V US Treasury yield and dollar fluctuations are mainly due to three factors: the risk of a stronger US Treasury yield caused by a stable US labor market and strong inflation; the tariff uncertainty from the "Greenland conflict" reigniting concerns about de-dollarization; and the spillover effect of Japanese bond yields. If inflation remains at a relatively high level and the labor market stays in a "low-speed balance," the short-term path of Fed monetary easing may be unsupported, and the dollar index may show a "weak first, then strong" pattern [2] Summary by Related Content Exchange Rate Core Logic - The risk of a stronger US Treasury yield is due to a stable US labor market, especially the unemployment rate, and strong inflation. As the PMI employment index and initial jobless claims have not deteriorated significantly, the market's expectation of this year's interest rate cut has been postponed [2] - The "Greenland conflict" has led to tariff uncertainty, reigniting concerns about de-dollarization. Trump's policies have affected some sovereign investors' asset allocation decisions, and if policy uncertainty persists, it may lead to a broader reevaluation of US Treasury asset allocation by international capital [2] - The spillover effect of Japanese bond yields: On January 19, Kao Ichimasa announced the dissolution of the parliament for early elections and proposed more radical tax cuts, causing market concerns about the deterioration of Japan's fiscal situation. Poor Japanese bond auction results have also deepened concerns about long-term bond demand [2] Economic Index Tracking - The difference between the US and European Citi Economic Surprise Index has rebounded [3] - The difference between the US and European long-term inflation expectations is in a certain range [5] - The difference between the US and European short-term interest rate expectations has increased [7] - The US long-term inflation expectation has risen [7] - The US short-term interest rate expectation has changed [9] - The VIX index has fallen back to a low level [11] - The euro swap basis shows that the pressure on cross-border dollar liquidity is limited [13] - The CFTC net position shows that the dollar maintains a net negative position exposure [17] - The term spread continues to narrow when looking at US Treasury deficit concerns and the dollar trend from the 30 - 10Y spread (in reverse order) and the 10Y swap spread [19] Correlation with Other Assets - There is a certain relationship between the dollar index and the gold-to-copper ratio [24] - There is a relationship between the dollar and copper prices, and copper prices have changed [27] - There is an inverse relationship between the dollar and crude oil prices, and crude oil prices have changed [29] - There is a relationship between the US dollar-yuan central parity rate and the spot exchange rate [35]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 26, gold and silver prices rose significantly, with Shanghai gold up 3.67% and Shanghai silver up 12.78%. London gold exceeded $5100/oz and London silver approached $110/oz. Geopolitical risks and the implied US dollar credit crisis are the driving factors [4]. - The uncertainty of the Fed chair nomination and independence risk are more important than the delayed rate - cut expectation. The market focuses on the Fed's independence as a new chair nomination nears [5]. - Short - term over - heating risk of gold and silver is increasing, and investors should pay attention to trading rhythm. The long - term upward trend is expected to continue, and the annual target range is raised [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content 1. Price Movement and Driving Factors - On January 26, gold and silver prices soared. Geopolitical conflicts in January, such as those between the US and South America, Europe, and Iran, led to a US dollar credit crisis, driving up precious metals. The US's actions around Greenland also affected the market [4]. 2. Fed - Related Factors - US economic data is resilient, and the expected Fed rate - cut is postponed to June. But the market focuses on the Fed's independence risk as a new chair nomination nears. Reed is the most likely nominee and his dovish remarks support long - term rate - cut expectations [5]. 3. Market Outlook and Target Range - Short - term over - heating risk of gold and silver is rising. If geopolitical issues ease or the Fed makes unexpectedly hawkish statements, short - term market adjustments may occur. The annual target range for spot gold is raised to $5900 - 6000/oz, and for spot silver to $120 - 150/oz [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 23, equity index futures were mixed, CGB futures rose slightly, and most commodities rose with precious metals leading the gains [2][4][11]. - Platinum, silver, and lithium carbonate were the top three gainers in commodity futures, while crude oil, egg, and LSFO were the top three decliners [12][13][14]. - Pan Gongsheng stated that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in 2026 [3][38][39]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures (期货异动) 3.1.1 Overview (行情概述) - On January 23, in equity index futures, IC rose 3.4% and IH dropped 0.7%; in CGB futures, TL rose 0.07% and TF rose 0.04% [11][13]. - In commodity futures, platinum rose 10.4% with open interest decreasing 4.8% month - on - month; silver gained 8.5% with open interest increasing 2.8% month - on - month; lithium carbonate advanced 7.3% with open interest increasing 0.5% month - on - month [12][13]. - The top three decliners in commodity futures were crude oil (down 1.0% with open interest increasing 4.7% month - on - month), egg (down 0.6% with open interest decreasing 1.4% month - on - month), and LSFO (down 0.3% with open interest increasing 8.0% month - on - month) [13][14]. 3.1.2 Daily Raise (上涨品种) - **Platinum (铂)**: On January 23, it rose 10.4% to 685.90 yuan/g. With a sound supply - demand backdrop and improving macro expectations, it is expected to trend oscillatory and strong. South African floods may disrupt supply, and geopolitical tensions have eased. Future supply risks remain, and demand is in a structural expansion phase [18][20][21]. - **Silver (白银)**: On January 23, it rose 8.5% to 24,965 yuan/kg. Silver prices have strong long - term bullish support. Trump's softened stance on Greenland weakens safe - haven demand, but industrial demand is expected to grow, and the market has a structural deficit. Short - term prices may be oscillatory and strong at high levels [25][26][28]. - **Lithium Carbonate (碳酸锂)**: On January 23, it rose 7.3% to 181,520 yuan/ton. Short - term supply and demand are in tight balance, and prices are expected to trade strong with fluctuations. January supply is expected to be robust, demand is solid, and inventories are decreasing [31][32][34]. 3.2 China News (中国要闻) 3.2.1 Macro News (宏观要闻) - On January 23, President Xi Jinping held a phone call with Brazilian President Lula, stating that China will boost high - quality development through high - standard opening - up and promote China - Brazil cooperation [37][39]. - On January 22, Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, said there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in 2026 and will keep social financing costs low [38][39].

Group 1 - The report does not provide an industry investment rating Group 2 - The EIA data shows that the inventory pressure in the US energy market continues, and the weekly data is bearish [4] Group 3 EIA Weekly Data Overview - US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.602 million barrels in the week ending January 16, 2026 [4] - The refinery utilization rate dropped seasonally from 95.3% to 93.3% but remained at a high level for the same period [4] - Crude oil processing volume decreased by 354,000 barrels per day, which was the main driver of crude oil inventory accumulation [4] - Net crude oil exports increased by 27,000 barrels per day, with both imports and exports declining [4] - The estimated weekly crude oil production was revised down by 21,000 barrels per day [4] Inventory and Demand Data Details | Category | Unit | Current Value | Previous Value | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US commercial crude oil inventory change | 10,000 barrels | - 360.2 | △ 339.1 | | US Cushing crude oil inventory change | 10,000 barrels | △ 147.8 | - 74.5 | | US strategic petroleum reserve change | 10,000 barrels | ▲ 80.6 | △ 21.4 | | US gasoline inventory change | 10,000 barrels | △ 597.7 | ▲ 897.7 | | US diesel inventory change | 10,000 barrels | ▲ 334.8 | - 2.9 | | US jet fuel inventory change | 10,000 barrels | ▼ - 78.8 | ▼ - 89.2 | | US fuel oil inventory change | 10,000 barrels | ▼ - 58.5 | ▲ 173.5 | | US crude oil and petroleum product inventory change (excluding SPR) | 10,000 barrels | ▲ 753.8 | 4 621 | | US crude oil production | 10,000 barrels per day | 1373.2 | 1375.3 | | US refined oil apparent demand | 10,000 barrels per day | 2017.2 | 2100.9 | | US gasoline apparent demand | 10,000 barrels per day | 783.4 | 830.4 | | US diesel apparent demand | 10,000 barrels per day | 352.4 | 409.6 | | US crude oil imports | 10,000 barrels per day | 644.7 | 709.2 | | US crude oil exports | 10,000 barrels per day | 368.8 | 430.6 | | US refinery crude oil processing volume | 10,000 barrels per day | 1660.4 | 1695.8 | | US refinery utilization rate | % | 93.3 | 95.3 | [5]

风险因素:需求不及预期:全球经济衰退;美联储降息预期反复 新华社1月19日消息，南北北部地区近期因持续强降雨引发严重洪灾，已导致至少37人遇难。数千户房屋受损。南非国家灾难管理中心于18日宣布全国进入"国家灾难状态"，作为全球拍族金 席的主要供应国，此次灾害预计将对当地矿区生产、物流运输及相关供应链稳定性构成潜在冲击。与此同时，全球的级政治与贸易摩擦风险仍存。尽管美欧围绕智能兰岛的紧张局势有所缓和, 但其不确定性依然较高。在供给端扰动与地缘风险双重影响下，贵金属板块再度走强。据同花顺厅iiD数据，截至发稿广期所（GFEX）铂金主力合约大幅上涨9.71%。报681.7元亮。 基本面情况 供应方面，南非作为全球拍族金属的主要供应国、未来仍存在电力供应以及极端无气风险，此外矿企在新项目投产偏少的情况下，整体产量水平受限。预计2026年全球抢金矿山和谐航产量 将分别上升2.8%和4.8%至173.6吨和228.2吨。需求方面，2026年全球经济复苏将带动相会工业需求继续回暖。珠宝需求也将呈现上行趋势，从而仅冲汽车催化剂需求的滑露，此外，由价波动 加大或进一步激发全球铂金投资需求，我们预计2026年全球拍金需求将增长0 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Alumina - On January 22, the domestic ore price was 501 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0 yuan/ton; the Guinea imported ore price was 62 US dollars/dry ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1 US dollar/dry ton [1] - On January 22, the spot price index was 2633 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1 yuan/ton [1] - On January 22, the futures inventory was 68432 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 457 tons [1] - On January 22, the aluminum import profit and loss was - 2056 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 4 yuan/ton [1] Electrolytic Aluminum - On January 22, the SMA00 average price was 23740 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of ×30 yuan/ton, and the premium and discount was - 150 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0 yuan/ton [1] - On January 22, the electrolytic aluminum smelting profit was 7609 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 30 yuan/ton [1] - On January 22, the futures inventory was 138856 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 101 tons [1] - On January 22, the import profit and loss was 143 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 9 yuan/ton [1] Aluminum Alloy - On January 22, the Baotai 4001 alloy price was 2300 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 0 yuan/ton [1] - On January 21, the refined - scrap price difference of raw aluminum was 2509 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton; the refined - scrap price difference of profile aluminum was 3530 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton [1] - On January 22, the futures inventory was 126641 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 7513 tons [1] - On January 22, the import profit and loss was 2 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5 yuan/ton [1]

地缘紧张有所缓解，铂钯延续震荡 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2026-01-23 据新华社1⽉22⽇消息，美国总统特朗普21⽇在社交媒体发⽂称，他已同 北约秘书⻓吕特就未来达成有关格陵兰岛的协议制定了框架，因此不会实 施原定于2⽉1⽇⽣效、对欧洲8国加征关税的措施。地缘紧张有所缓解， 铂钯延续震荡⾛势。据上海有⾊⽹数据，截⾄2026年1⽉22⽇收盘，GFE X铂主⼒合约收盘价为633.85元/克，跌幅-0.92%；GFEX钯主⼒合约收盘 价为483.75元/克，跌幅-1.90%。 铂观点：供应与地缘风险持续扰动，铂金延续震荡 主要逻辑：近期南非北部地区持续强降雨引发洪灾，预计将对矿区生产、 物流运输及供应稳定性造成潜在影响。地缘方面近日紧张情况有所缓解， 据新华社1月22日消息，美国总统特朗普21日在社交媒体发文称，他已同 北约秘书长吕特就未来达成有关格陵兰岛的协议制定了框架，因此不会实 施原定于2月1日生效、对欧洲8国加征关税的措施，且不会武力夺取格陵 兰岛。美联储新任主席提名、美国对铂钯关税预期同样是近期影响市场的 关键因素，短期铂价或延续震荡走势，可关注 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 股市关注涨价链条，债市多空博弈 股指期货：对于负⾯因素脱敏 股指期权：适当补充买权防御 国债期货：多空博弈，债市⼩幅收跌 股指期货方面，周四权益市场震荡上行，尽管宽基ETF近期仍有零星 抛售，但市场对此反应开始脱敏，风格层面，双创最优，上证50偏弱，值 得注意的是，前期持续回调的军工大涨，隐含融资保证金调整的影响也在 弱化。另外资源股近期轮番成为市场热点，周四建材、石化、煤炭领涨， 地缘风险持续升级背景下，市场重估资源品价值。展望后市，监管降温影 响逐步弱化，市场主导回归资金驱动，现阶段在平量环境中，量化及杠杆 资金定价权弱化，机构资金有望接力定价权，预计中证500及双创风格仍 有比较优势。 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2026-01-23 股指期权方面，各个品种市场成交额多数回落为主，整体成交额大幅 收敛；而期权持仓量不降反升，考虑到期权情绪指标偏弱，以及隐含波动 率走强，推测部分投资者交易买权对冲防御。本周权益市场走势震荡，在 投资者持有权益底仓的基础上，根据行情走势节奏，卖出看涨期权进行备 兑增厚也仍然是期权端近期主要推荐的策略；而结合趋势，短期也可 ...