明节有限公司 中东地缘冲突持续,铝产业链价格表现强势 中信期货研究所 有色与新材料团队 最新动态及原因 中东地缘冲突持续胜升能源价格，引发市场对铝供应销困忧。报据万得数据，3月9日早盘，铝产业链价格表现强势，其中氧化铝主力合约一度涨超8%至3040元吨。沪铝主力合约一度放超 5%至25860元/吨，铸造铝合金主力合约一度涨超5%至24420元/吨，此前伦铝突破3450美元/吨，达近些年新高。 基本面情况 氧化铝: 地缘冲突推升能源和海运成本，短期微单矿损价有所上移，后续如果海运费持续上涨，长加矿台约的行效率或受影响，且影响二季度长价价格谈判预期。供应端，根据阿拉丁数据 受国内大型氧化铝厂政策减产影响，运行产销降至9370万吨，但在后海内外供应端仍有新增产能投放预期。需求端，近期中东地区电解铝厂出现生产犹动，海外氧化铝需求预购有所走弱，预计 氧化铝呈现贯幅震荡。 电解铝：地缘冲突升级加大海外铝执应但优，根据阿拉丁数据、中东地区电解铝全球占比接近LDW，氧化铝等原料依赖进口补充，目前卡塔尔铝业和巴林铝业生产运输已受到影响，若后续区 城冲突升级且海峡通行受阻持续，供应端扰动范围或有所扩大。需求端，国内消费呈现温和复 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core Viewpoints - The price trend of the current oil and fat market is highly correlated with the evolution of the Middle East situation, forming the core logic that "the duration of the war determines the price level." The deterioration of the situation causes a surge in crude oil prices, which in turn affects oil and fat prices through multiple paths such as cost transmission, demand substitution, supply chain disruptions, and market sentiment. Before the war shows a clear end signal, the market will trade on the "conflict premium," and the price center is expected to rise. Once the war ends, oil and fat prices will face systematic downward pressure, but in the long term, supported by fundamental factors such as low inventory and weather, it is expected to turn into a relatively strong shock pattern [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Scenario Deduction: War Process Determines Short - term Path - **Scenario 1 (Quick End, 1 - 2 Weeks)**: The market will be volatile and weak. If the conflict ends quickly in the short term, the geopolitical risk premium will fade, leading to a rapid decline in crude oil prices. This will weaken the speculative sentiment in the vegetable oil market, and given the current fundamentals of the oil and fat market (such as seasonal production increase in major producing countries, flat demand, and high inventory), prices will follow the decline of crude oil [3]. - **Scenario 2 (Short - term Stalemate, About 1 Month)**: The market will be volatile and strong. If the war lasts for about a month, crude oil prices will be continuously supported at a high level. This will systematically increase the transportation cost of oil and fat and the supply uncertainty of imported oilseeds. More importantly, the continuously high crude oil prices will significantly enhance the economic attractiveness of palm oil and other oils and fats as raw materials for biodiesel, stimulating the marginal improvement expectation of industrial demand. Under the combined effect of cost - push and positive demand expectation, oil and fat prices are expected to gain phased upward momentum [4]. - **Scenario 3 (Prolonged War, 3 - 6 Months or More)**: The trend will be strong. If the conflict becomes long - term, its impact will deepen and spread. On the one hand, crude oil will remain at a high level or even continue to rise, continuously pushing up the costs of the entire industrial chain (transportation, fertilizers, production). On the other hand, the supply side will be blocked due to risks in key shipping lanes (such as the Strait of Hormuz), and poor logistics will intensify regional supply shortages. On the demand side, high oil prices will irreversibly promote the increase of the biodiesel blending ratio, bringing about unexpected growth in demand. Under the resonance of "high cost + weak supply + strong demand," oil and fat prices will enter a medium - to - long - term upward channel, and the main contract of vegetable oil may challenge the range of 10,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton or even higher [4]. 2. Post - war Outlook: Premium Reversal and Logic Switch - After the war ends, the "conflict premium" in the oil and fat market will experience a systematic reversal. The core negative logic will be concentrated: the resumption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz will increase global crude oil supply, oil prices will fall; the speculative sentiment in vegetable oil will cool down, and shipping costs will decrease; the price difference between oil and fat and crude oil will widen, and the demand for biodiesel will weaken; the costs of fertilizers and other items will fall. The fundamental expectation will turn loose, and it is expected that oil and fat prices will experience a significant phased correction [4]. - After the conflict premium weakens, there are still medium - to - long - term supporting factors in the oil and fat industry. In terms of weather and supply, the transition process from La Nina to El Nino and its actual impact on the production of palm oil, soybeans, and rapeseed in Southeast Asia will become the core of pricing again. In terms of demand, the trends of global biodiesel mandatory blending policies will be the key to affecting the long - term demand structure. Currently, the global oil and fat inventory - to - consumption ratio is still at a historically low level, providing medium - to - long - term bottom support for prices [5].

2026/03/09 指有限公司 【中信期货航运】霍尔木兹海峡日度通行及运价 -- 数据报告 成品油目度运费:据Refinitiv报价, 3月6日沙特拉斯坦努拉 ~ 新加坡LR（105kt）、沙特斯坦努拉 ~ 日本横滨（105kt）运费分别更新于7.07、12. 09美元 桶,日度分别环比-12.3%、-12.3%。 集返日度运费:据天津国际贸易与航运服务中心官网,3月6日TC1天津=波斯湾基本港运价维持持平,位于1852.56美元/FEU,或因短期发运停滞。天津·欧洲基 本港运价位于2699.22美元/FEU、743.98点，指数较昨日上涨8.3%，天津=地中海西部、地中海东部基本港运价分别位于3635.22、3858.22美元/FEU，指数分别较昨 日上涨7.6%、3.8%。 风险提示:地缘政治事件走势、霍尔木兹海峡通行情况、极端天气 海峡通行:据船视宝霍尔木兹海峡船舶洞察记录8月8日通行量,通行3艘，环比下降1艘维持低位。据3月8日13:00通行记录，显示有21条通行记录但多为同条 船舶快速进出海峡;至3月9日0:00数据已经恢复3艘通行量。其中1艘液体散货船为伊朗船旗。 霍尔木兹海峡通行量 WL00日 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical premiums are rising, and macroeconomic games are intensifying. Geopolitical risks have significantly increased, and safe-haven funds are continuously flowing into the precious metals market. Gold prices are approaching $5,200 per ounce. Energy prices are rising, pushing up global inflation expectations, and the market is re - evaluating the monetary policy path. The US dollar has rebounded, and precious metals are maintaining a high - level oscillation pattern between safe - haven demand and interest rate expectations [1]. - If the Middle East conflict continues and disrupts global energy supply, the safe - haven demand for gold will remain. However, if energy prices drive inflation expectations to rise and strengthen the high - interest - rate environment, the upward space for gold prices may be limited. In the short term, gold may maintain a high - level oscillation pattern, and in the medium term, it still depends on real interest rates and the US dollar trend [2]. - Silver is a high - volatility asset under the resonance of precious metals. Geopolitical conflicts strengthen the overall safe - haven demand for precious metals. Silver has received support from capital allocation. After significant fluctuations, silver has entered a shock - repair stage, and capital re - allocation within the precious metals sector makes the short - term volatility of silver significantly higher than that of gold. The industrial attribute provides marginal support for silver demand. If the safe - haven sentiment continues to heat up, silver is expected to maintain high elasticity in the precious metals sector. If interest rate expectations rise again, silver price fluctuations may further increase, maintaining a high - volatility oscillation pattern [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical premiums are rising, and macroeconomic games are intensifying [1]. - **Logic**: - The Middle East conflict continues to escalate, and the uncertainty of global energy supply has significantly increased, and safe - haven demand continuously supports the gold price [1]. - Rising oil prices drive up inflation expectations, and the market re - evaluates the monetary policy path of major economies. The possibility of maintaining high interest rates exerts a phased suppression on gold [1]. - The US dollar rebounds after a previous decline. Exchange rate and interest rate factors cause gold to show an oscillation pattern at a high level [1]. - **Outlook**: If the Middle East conflict continues and disrupts global energy supply, the safe - haven demand for gold will remain. However, if energy prices drive inflation expectations to rise and strengthen the high - interest - rate environment, the upward space for gold prices may be limited. In the short term, gold may maintain a high - level oscillation pattern, and in the medium term, it still depends on real interest rates and the US dollar trend [2]. Silver - **Viewpoint**: A high - volatility asset under the resonance of precious metals [3]. - **Logic**: - Geopolitical conflicts strengthen the overall safe - haven demand for precious metals, and silver receives support from capital allocation in the context of the strengthening of gold [3]. - After significant fluctuations, silver has entered a shock - repair stage, and capital re - allocation within the precious metals sector makes the short - term volatility of silver significantly higher than that of gold [3]. - In the context of certain resilience in the global economy, the industrial attribute provides marginal support for silver demand [3]. - **Outlook**: If the safe - haven sentiment continues to heat up, silver is expected to maintain high elasticity in the precious metals sector. If interest rate expectations rise again, silver price fluctuations may further increase, maintaining a high - volatility oscillation pattern [3]. Commodity Index - **Composite Index**: Not provided with specific data - **Special Index**: - Commodity Index: 2510.23, +1.04% [44] - Commodity 20 Index: 2869.81, +1.11% [44] - Industrial Products Index: 2430.86, +1.36% [44] - **Sector Index (Precious Metals Index)**: - On March 5, 2026, the index was 4413.43, with a daily increase of +0.91% [46] - The increase in the past 5 days was - 1.33% [46] - The increase in the past 1 month was - 14.40% [46] - The increase from the beginning of the year to the present was +15.41% [46]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the stock market's implied volatility declined, and the bond market curve flattened. The equity market showed pressure in the afternoon, the implied volatility of index options decreased, and the bond market curve flattened [1]. - For stock index futures, the resource stocks + technology sector remains the absolute main line for the year, but it is recommended to wait and see due to uncertainties in economic data and geopolitical situations. For index options, it is advisable to continue buying options for defense as the market's concerns persist. For bond futures, the market may be volatile in the short - term, and strategies like arbitrage should be considered [1][2][3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **Viewpoint**: Pressure emerged in the afternoon [1][7]. - **Logic**: The equity market rose first and then fell on Thursday. The external environment improved the morning sentiment, but the afternoon saw a callback. The two - market trading volume was about 2.4 trillion, indicating strong wait - and - see sentiment. The policy supports anti - involution and technology security, with resource + technology as the annual main line. However, the verification of economic data and geopolitical situations are uncertain [1][7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Reduce positions to a wait - and - see state [7]. Index Options - **Viewpoint**: Implied volatility declined overall [2][7]. - **Logic**: The option ratio PCR reached a high the previous day, and the market rebounded on Thursday. The intraday implied volatility was negatively correlated with the underlying. The decrease in market momentum in the afternoon led to the implied volatility hitting the bottom and then rising, indicating that the market's concerns have not completely subsided. The skewness of some varieties increased, and call option positions decreased, possibly reflecting the profit - taking of option - buying funds [2][7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Continue to use option - buying for defense, and consider switching to in - the - money options to hedge [2][7]. Bond Futures - **Viewpoint**: The bond market curve flattened [3][7][8]. - **Logic**: The main bond futures contracts fell, the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly fluctuated, and the yields of ultra - long - term bonds declined slightly. The central bank's net liquidity withdrawal, the improvement of risk appetite in the equity market, and the moderate fiscal expansion scale in 2026 all affected the bond market. The issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special bonds in 2026 is the same as last year, alleviating the market's concerns about ultra - long - term bond supply [3][7][8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The trend strategy is to expect volatility. For the hedging strategy, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels. For the basis strategy, focus on ultra - long - term arbitrage opportunities. For the curve strategy, pay attention to the flattening of the 30Y - 10Y spread in the short - term [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the report analyzes multiple agricultural products, including oils and fats, protein meals, corn, pigs, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, double - gum paper, and logs, providing short - term and medium - long - term outlooks and investment suggestions for each product [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Oils and fats are in high - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the risk of correction. - **Logic**: Crude oil and US soybean oil continue to oscillate at high levels. The situation in the Middle East is deadlocked, and the market highly focuses on the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Palm oil is affected by the rise in crude oil, and its demand may increase due to potential supply limitations of soybean oil and sunflower oil. However, the production in March is expected to resume growth, which will restrict the rebound space. US soybean oil has digested previous positive news, and its inventory is higher than expected, so there is a risk of high - level adjustment. The supply of rapeseed oil is expected to become looser, and its price will oscillate following the trend of oils and fats [1][5]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of buying at stage lows [1][5]. 3.2 Protein Meals - **Viewpoint**: The spot market continues to be weak, and the double - meal futures oscillate in a narrow range. - **Logic**: Internationally, the conflict between the US and Iran has pushed up international oil prices, driving up shipping costs and indirectly boosting international grain prices. The US Environmental Protection Agency plans to redistribute biofuel blending obligations, which boosts the domestic soybean crushing demand. Brazil's soybean harvest progress is slower than usual, and the selling pressure in March is expected to increase. In China, the high - level operation of the US soybean outer market and the firmness of Brazilian discounts support the cost of domestic soybean meal, and the spot market is weak [7][8]. - **Outlook**: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate. After the Spring Festival, it is the off - season for consumption, and the supply and demand of double - meals are both weak [7][8]. 3.3 Corn - **Viewpoint**: The downstream replenishment continues, and the futures and spot prices remain strong. - **Logic**: The price of corn is supported by limited remaining grain at the grassroots level, strong farmer reluctance to sell, and continuous downstream replenishment. The storage pressure of on - the - ground grain has been reduced, and the selling pressure is limited in the short term. Downstream enterprises have replenishment needs, and the price has increased slightly. Attention should be paid to the game between farmers' selling and downstream replenishment, as well as the arrival rhythm of imported grains [9]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate strongly, and in the medium term, it is generally bullish. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of downstream replenishment and traders' inventory building [9][10]. 3.4 Pigs - **Viewpoint**: The pressure on near - term contracts continues, and the pig price oscillates weakly. - **Logic**: In the short term, the supply of pigs is still excessive, and the demand is in the off - season after the Spring Festival. The average weight of pigs has increased. In the long term, the sow inventory decreased in the second half of 2025, and it is expected that the supply pressure will gradually weaken in the second half of 2026 [10]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the first half of the year, and the industry is advised to pay attention to the hedging opportunity of short - selling at high prices. It is expected that the pig cycle will gradually bottom out and pick up in the second half of 2026 [10]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The fundamental support is insufficient, and the rubber price lacks upward momentum. - **Logic**: The rubber price rose first and then fell. Although it was driven by the sharp rise in synthetic rubber, the overall increase was limited. The short - term trading logic is mainly related to the Middle East geopolitical situation, which has a negative impact on downstream tire orders. The market sentiment is weak, and there is a need for adjustment, but the downward space is limited [12]. - **Outlook**: The fundamental variables are limited, and the market is expected to oscillate [12]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Driven by the sector, the futures price breaks through the previous high and rises significantly. - **Logic**: Affected by the Middle East geopolitical event, crude oil prices have risen continuously. The BR futures once rose by more than 7% but then fell back due to the decline in crude oil prices. The market is mainly driven by sentiment, and the supply of butadiene and synthetic rubber has not been actually affected. The medium - term core logic is the expectation of tight supply of butadiene in the first half of 2026 [13]. - **Outlook**: The market follows the sector sentiment. If crude oil prices continue to rise, the futures price will remain strong in the short term, but attention should be paid to the rapid change of geopolitical sentiment [13]. 3.7 Cotton - **Viewpoint**: The cotton price maintains a small - range oscillating trend. - **Logic**: The market has digested the positive factors of the macro and USDA reports, and there is a lack of upward momentum. There is a possibility of short - term correction, but the long - term trend is optimistic. Domestically, the supply and demand are expected to be in a tight balance, and the planting area in Xinjiang is expected to decline. Internationally, the global supply and demand are still loose this year but are expected to tighten next year [14]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the long - term. The strategy of buying on dips remains unchanged [14]. 3.8 Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The sugar price may oscillate in the short term, and the medium - long - term outlook of weak oscillation still holds. - **Logic**: In the medium - long term, the supply of the global sugar market is expected to be in surplus, and although there are some positive factors, it is difficult to reverse the situation. The production in major producing countries is expected to increase. The rise in crude oil prices may affect the sugar - to - ethanol ratio in Brazil and then affect the sugar supply [15]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate weakly. In the short term, it may rebound slightly due to the Middle East conflict, and the domestic price range can be moderately widened to 5100 - 5500 yuan/ton [15]. 3.9 Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The positive news of overseas production suspension stimulates the futures price to rise. - **Logic**: Affected by the news of overseas pulp mill production suspension, the pulp price continues to fluctuate upward, but the resistance is large. The demand is in the recovery process, and there is a seasonal improvement in the future. The supply side has both positive and negative factors, and the market is in a wide - range oscillation [16]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to oscillate. The expected improvement in demand forms a positive factor, while the flat supply quotation forms a negative factor [16]. 3.10 Double - Gum Paper - **Viewpoint**: The market is temporarily stable, and the futures price oscillates strongly. - **Logic**: The double - gum paper market is stable. The resumption of some production lines in South China has increased the market's wait - and - see attitude. The demand recovery after the Spring Festival is slow, and the support for the paper price is limited. In March - April, the supply and demand are expected to increase, and the price is expected to rise first and then fall [17][19]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to oscillate. After the Spring Festival, the supply and demand are expected to increase, and there is no clear major contradiction [19]. 3.11 Logs - **Viewpoint**: The outer - market price has increased significantly, and the downside support is strong. - **Logic**: Affected by the geopolitical conflict, the shipping cost has increased, and the outer - market CFR quotation in March has increased significantly. The domestic spot price has followed the increase, and the futures price oscillates strongly. In the medium term, the downstream demand has not shown strong resilience, and the market may be under pressure after the arrival of a large number of logs [20]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to oscillate. The increase in the outer - market price drives up the domestic spot price, and the downside support is strong [20]. 3.12 Commodity Index - **On March 5, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities showed that the commodity index was 2510.23, up 1.04%; the commodity 20 index was 2869.81, up 1.11%; the industrial products index was 2430.86, up 1.36%. The agricultural product index on March 5, 2026, had a daily increase of 0.24%, a 5 - day increase of 0.76%, a 1 - month increase of 0.34%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.95% [180][182].**

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 5, 2026, equity index futures rose, and most commodities showed high performances, with energy & chemicals leading the raise. Geopolitical tensions have a significant impact on the prices of crude oil and related chemical products, and the future price trends of these products are expected to be volatile due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation [11][13]. - The Chinese government has set the economic growth target for 2026 at 4.5% - 5%, and plans to issue RMB 1.3 trillion worth of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, with a deficit ratio of around 4%. These policies are expected to have an impact on the macro - economic and financial markets [39][40]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On March 5, equity index futures rose (IF rose 0.9% and IM rose 0.8%), and most commodities performed well, with energy & chemicals leading the increase. In CGB futures, TL dropped 0.05% and TF dropped 0.03%. In commodity futures, the top three gainers were Sodium Hydroxide (up 7.0% with open interest decreasing 5.8% month - on - month), Crude Oil (up 6.4% with open interest decreasing 10.9% month - on - month), and Benzene (up 6.2% with open interest increasing 8.8% month - on - month). The top three decliners were LPG (down 3.6% with open interest decreasing 3.8% month - on - month), Methanol (down 3.5% with open interest decreasing 12.5% month - on - month), and SCFIS(Europe) (down 3.4% with open interest decreasing 5.0% month - on - month) [11][12][13]. 3.1.2 Daily Raise - **Crude Oil**: On March 5, the crude oil main contract hit the upward limit at one point but pulled back in the late trading session, closing up 6.4% at 664.1 yuan/barrel. U.S. crude oil inventories continued seasonal build - up at a slower pace. Geopolitical tensions led to reduced supply, and the future price is expected to fluctuate [17][18][20]. - **Benzene**: On March 5, the main contract of Benzene rose 6.2% to 7251 yuan/ton. Crude oil price fluctuations driven by geopolitical tensions are the key driver of benzene prices. Supply is affected by crude oil swings, and refineries may cut operating rates. Demand is affected by styrene maintenance and restart news. Although inventory pressure remains, Q1 fundamentals have improved month - on - month from Q4 [24][25][27]. - **Ethenylbenzene**: On March 5, the main contract of Ethenylbenzene rose 6.0% to 8656 yuan/ton. Geopolitical tensions boosted crude oil, which in turn lifted ethenylbenzene prices. Supply is expected to drop due to plant maintenance, and demand is recovering after the Spring Festival. It is expected to destock in March [31][32][34]. 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro - The Government Work Report stated that the main expected development goals for 2026 are economic growth of 4.5% - 5%, the urban surveyed unemployment rate kept at around 5.5% and over 12 million new urban jobs created, the consumer price index rising by about 2%, a basic balance of international payments, grain output reaching approximately 1.4 trillion jin, and a reduction of around 3.8% in carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP. The deficit ratio is projected at around 4% for the year, with a deficit scale of RMB 5.89 trillion, an increase of RMB 230 billion over the previous year. RMB 1.3 trillion worth of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds will be issued [39][40]. 3.2.2 Trading - On March 5, 2026, the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) adjusted the price limits and trading margin ratios for crude oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and fuel oil futures contracts [40][44][45].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 2026 economic work is focused on improving quality and efficiency, with most risk assets rebounding. Overseas, attention should be paid to the Middle East situation, while domestically, focus on the release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" [1]. - Overseas consumption confidence is recovering, industrial orders are showing a mixed trend, and geopolitical and institutional risks are rising. In the US, consumer confidence is rebounding, and core capital expenditure remains resilient, supporting industrial metals. However, policy discussions and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are increasing risk premiums [1]. - The 2026 Government Work Report has five key points: a slightly lower economic growth target, stable fiscal and monetary policies, expanding domestic demand as a key task, highlighting the "dual - carbon" goal, and continuing the "anti - involution" work. Relevant equity and commodity assets in new and old infrastructure, consumption, and green transformation are worth noting [1]. - In terms of asset allocation, the focus is on structure, and it is necessary to distinguish whether conflicts spill over. If the war does not expand, non - ferrous metals and mid - cap styles have relative advantages; if the conflict expands, risk assets will be under pressure, while precious metals and energy will see an increase in safe - haven premiums. Currently, non - ferrous metals and precious metals are overweight, bonds are neutral with short - term bonds preferred, equities focus on mid - cap styles, iron ore is underweight in the black sector, and the energy and chemical sector should pay attention to the transmission rhythm of oil prices [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overseas Macroeconomy - In February, US consumer confidence rebounded, indicating consumption resilience and limiting the space for "recession trading." In December, the total factory orders declined, but excluding transportation, they increased. Non - defense capital goods (excluding aircraft) continued to expand, and core capital expenditure remained resilient, which supported industrial metals [1]. - Policy discussions around the Wash nominee are intensifying, and the risk premium is affecting the pricing of the US dollar and interest rates. Coupled with the intensification of the US - Iran situation and Israeli air strikes on Iran, the Middle East situation is heating up, pushing up energy and safe - haven premiums [1]. Domestic Macroeconomy - The 2026 Government Work Report has five key points: a slightly lower economic growth target is in line with the requirement of improving economic quality and efficiency; fiscal and monetary policies are generally stable; expanding domestic demand may be the key task this year, with new and old infrastructure and consumption upgrading as the main focuses; the "dual - carbon" goal remains prominent, and the demand for green transformation - related commodities is broad; the "anti - involution" work will continue, aiming to ensure economic quality improvement and efficiency enhancement [1]. Asset Views - If the war does not expand further and energy production, transportation, and the passage of the strait are not substantially affected, non - ferrous metals and mid - cap styles still have relative advantages. If the conflict expands and affects global risk appetite, risk assets will be under pressure in the short term, equities and industrial metals will face pressure, and the safe - haven premiums of precious metals and energy will further increase [1]. - Currently, non - ferrous metals and precious metals are recommended to be over - allocated, bonds are generally neutral with short - term bonds preferred, equities focus on mid - cap styles, iron ore in the black sector is under - allocated, and the energy and chemical sector should pay attention to the transmission rhythm of oil prices [1]. Market Conditions of Various Varieties - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures are all expected to fluctuate. Gold and silver are expected to fluctuate strongly due to geopolitical conflicts and other factors [1][4]. - **Shipping Sector**: Container shipping on the European route is expected to fluctuate due to geopolitical uncertainties [4]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Steel, iron ore, coke, and other varieties are expected to fluctuate, with factors such as cost, production, and policy affecting the market [4]. - **Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector**: Most non - ferrous metals are expected to fluctuate, with factors such as supply concerns, the US dollar index, and geopolitical conflicts influencing the prices [4]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Crude oil, LPG, asphalt, and other varieties are expected to fluctuate, with geopolitical situations and supply - demand relationships being the main influencing factors [4][5]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Oils, protein meals, and other agricultural products are expected to fluctuate, with factors such as trade, weather, and policies affecting the market [5]. Market Fluctuations - **Financial Market**: On March 5, 2026, the CSI 300 futures rose 0.7%, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 50 futures rose 0.33%, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.02%. The US dollar index fell 0.27% [7]. - **Industry Index**: On March 5, 2026, the machinery industry index rose 1.46%, the electronic industry index rose 2.01%, and the national defense and military industry index rose 0.51% [8][9]. - **Overseas Commodities**: On March 4, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil rose 2.08%, ICE Brent crude oil rose 1.45%, and COMEX gold rose 0.54% [10][11]. - **Domestic Commodities**: On March 5, 2026, the container shipping on the European route fell 9.78%, domestic gold fell 0.08%, and domestic crude oil rose 0.51% [12][13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is the main factor driving the strength of crude oil prices. The low traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz has increased the expectation of production cuts in oil - producing countries, and the chemical industry as a whole is expected to continue the strong and volatile pattern, led by crude oil [1][2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical concerns in the Middle East continue. The low traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz strengthens the expectation of production cuts in oil - producing countries. The Brent spread continues to strengthen, and the domestic spread shows high - level fluctuations. The price is expected to fluctuate. The influencing factors include the Middle East geopolitical situation, OPEC+ production policy changes, and Sino - US tariff policy adjustments [7]. - **Asphalt**: The geopolitical premium is released, but the profit is significantly compressed. The absolute price is overvalued, and the medium - and long - term valuation is expected to decline. The influencing factors are the sharp rise or fall of crude oil prices [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Driven by geopolitics, the futures price continues to rise sharply. In the medium and long term, the demand for fuel oil power generation in the Middle East is gradually replaced, which is a long - term negative factor. The short - term outlook is to pay attention to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the sharp rise of crude oil. Although it is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand and green energy substitution, the current valuation is low. It is expected to fluctuate following crude oil [10]. - **PX**: The expectation of raw material supply interruption strengthens, and the short - term is expected to be strong. The medium - term logic of buying on dips remains, and the PXN is expected to be sorted out in the range of [220, 280] US dollars/ton [12]. - **PTA**: The market is worried that raw material risks will force PTA plants to reduce or stop production, and the basis strengthens significantly. It is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend in the short term [13]. - **Pure Benzene**: Driven by the rise of crude oil prices, although the inventory pressure is still large, the fundamentals in Q1 are improved compared with Q4. It is expected to be strong and volatile [17]. - **Styrene**: Affected by the rise of crude oil and the reduction of supply due to device maintenance, and the improvement of downstream demand, it is expected to be strong and volatile in March [19]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Affected by the geopolitical situation, the import volume in April is expected to decrease significantly. The short - term is expected to be strong, and the medium - term is to buy on dips [21]. - **Direct - Spun Polyester Staple Fiber**: Driven by the cost, it is expected to be strong and volatile in the short term, and the processing fee has certain support below [23]. - **Polyester Bottle Chips**: Driven by the rise of raw materials, the market trading atmosphere recovers, and the absolute price follows the raw material fluctuations. The support for the processing fee below is enhanced [25]. - **Methanol**: The demand is weak, which drags down the geopolitical drive. It is expected to fluctuate within a range. The influencing factors include the sharp rise of coal prices, macro - policy benefits, supply - side disturbances, and downstream negative feedback [27]. - **Urea**: There is a coexistence of demand support and policy guidance. It is expected to fluctuate and sort out. The influencing factors include the sharp rise or fall of coal prices, macro - policy benefits, demand exceeding expectations, and policy control risks [29]. - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: Affected by the geopolitical situation and the possible reduction of PE imports, and the improvement of downstream demand, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [32]. - **PP**: Affected by the rise of oil prices, the indirect boost of methanol and propane, and the improvement of downstream demand, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [33]. - **PL**: Boosted by raw materials, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [34]. - **PVC**: Affected by the geopolitical situation, the supply reduction expectation of ethylene - based PVC increases. It is expected to be strong and volatile, but it should be vigilant against the weakening of the geopolitical conflict [35]. - **Caustic Soda**: Overseas production cuts boost domestic exports. It is expected to be strong and volatile. The influencing factors include poor demand, sharp decline in spot prices, macro - disturbances, and excessive replenishment in the middle and lower reaches [36]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. have different degrees of changes. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 3.8 with a change of 0.41 US dollars/barrel [38]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. are provided. For example, the basis of asphalt is - 109 yuan/ton with a change of 21 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt is 78750 tons [39]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The spreads between different varieties such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc. are given. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 188 yuan/ton with a change of - 20 yuan/ton [40]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific data summaries are provided in the report for this part. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index is 2510.23, up 1.04%; the commodity 20 index is 2869.81, up 1.11%; the industrial product index is 2430.86, up 1.36% [280]. - **Energy Index**: On March 5, 2026, the energy index is 1558.52, with a daily increase of 4.14%, a 5 - day increase of 31.66%, a 1 - month increase of 33.56%, and a year - to - date increase of 43.43% [282].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment has eased, and platinum and palladium have stabilized in a volatile manner. The short - term safe - haven sentiment supports platinum prices, but the delayed Fed rate - cut expectation weakens price elasticity. In the long - term, the weakening of the US dollar index is beneficial to the release of platinum price elasticity. Palladium prices are mainly affected by the overall fluctuation of the precious metals sector, with supply disturbances and long - term supply - demand loosening [1][2][3]. - The medium - and long - term expectations for both platinum and palladium prices are to be volatile and bullish, supported by fundamental resilience, spot shortages, and the weakening of the US dollar credit [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Platinum - **Price**: On March 5, 2026, the main platinum contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose 0.63% to 563.95 yuan/gram [1]. - **Main Logic**: The US - Iran situation disturbs the precious metals market. Iran's statement about the Strait of Hormuz led to a decline in oil prices and a rebound in platinum prices. Short - term safe - haven sentiment supports platinum prices, but the delayed Fed rate - cut expectation weakens price elasticity. In the long - term, the weakening of the US dollar index due to the damage to the Fed's independence and the loosening of the global political and economic order is beneficial to platinum prices, but the US - Iran conflict also has an additional impact [2]. - **Outlook**: Volatile and bullish. The medium - and long - term price is expected to be volatile and bullish due to fundamental resilience and the weakening of the US dollar credit [2]. Palladium - **Price**: On March 5, 2026, the main palladium contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange fell 0.91% to 428.00 yuan/gram [1]. - **Main Logic**: There is continuous uncertainty on the supply side. The US imposed anti - dumping duties on Russian palladium, and Europe is considering new sanctions on Russian palladium. The supply disturbance supports prices. On the demand side, palladium faces structural pressure. In general, the long - term supply - demand of palladium tends to loosen, and short - term supply disturbances still exist, and it mainly follows the overall fluctuation of the precious metals sector [3]. - **Outlook**: Volatile and bullish. The medium - and long - term price is expected to be volatile and bullish due to spot shortages and the weakening of the US dollar credit [3]. Commodity Index - **Special Index**: The commodity index was 2510.23, up 1.04%; the commodity 20 index was 2869.81, up 1.11%; the industrial products index was 2430.86, up 1.36% [49]. - **Sector Index**: The non - ferrous metals index on March 5, 2026, was 2719.66. The daily increase was 0.74%, the increase in the past 5 days was 0.40%, the decrease in the past 1 month was 5.91%, and the increase since the beginning of the year was 1.25% [51].