1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Volatile in the short term, with a high probability of stronger performance in the medium term [5] - **Protein Meal**: Volatile with an internal-weak and external-strong pattern. It is recommended that oil mills sell on rallies for hedging, and downstream enterprises buy basis contracts or fix prices on dips [7] - **Corn/Starch**: Volatile, with a short-term rebound and a long-term expectation of price decline due to increased supply [7][8] - **Pigs**: Volatile. The spot and near-term contracts are expected to remain weak, while the far-term contracts are supported by the expectation of capacity reduction [8] - **Natural Rubber**: Volatile and tending to strengthen in the short term [9][10] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Volatile and tending to strengthen in the short term [11] - **Cotton**: Volatile and tending to strengthen in the short term, with a price range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton. It may face downward pressure after the new cotton is listed [12] - **Sugar**: Volatile and tending to weaken in the long term, with a short-term trading range of 5,550 - 5,750 yuan/ton [13] - **Pulp**: Volatile, with the main contract remaining weak [15] - **Logs**: Volatile and tending to weaken, with the option to buy the far-month 11 contract on dips in the range of 790 - 840 [16] 2. Core Views of the Report - The continuous expectation of a bumper soybean harvest in the US exerts pressure on the oils and fats market, but factors such as increased biodiesel demand and potential reduction in US soybean yield may support the market in the medium term [5] - The rapid decline in soybean import crushing margins has led to a focus on the support at the integer level for soybean meal. The market shows an internal-weak and external-strong pattern [7] - The increase in forward orders has led to a rebound in the corn futures market, but the long-term expectation is for prices to decline due to increased supply [7][8] - The pig market is under inventory pressure, with the spot and near-term contracts remaining weak. The far-term contracts are supported by the expectation of capacity reduction [8] - The natural rubber market is in a seasonally rising period, with support from both macro and fundamental factors, and is expected to be volatile and tend to strengthen in the short term [9][10] - The synthetic rubber market follows the trend of natural rubber and is supported by the tight supply of its raw material, butadiene [11] - The cotton market has strong support at the current stage due to low inventory and improved demand, but may face downward pressure after the new cotton is listed [12] - The sugar market is under pressure from increased supply, with a long-term expectation of price decline and short-term volatility [13] - The pulp market shows a divergence between the near and far contracts, with the main contract remaining weak [15] - The log market has a marginal improvement in fundamentals but faces pressure from new warehouse receipts and low buyer willingness [16] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Market Situation**: US soybean futures were volatile and bearish on Wednesday due to the expectation of a bumper harvest, and domestic oils and fats continued to adjust downward on Thursday, with palm oil being relatively weak [5] - **Macro Environment**: The market is concerned about the impact of US economic data on the Fed's interest rate cut expectation. The US dollar rose and then fell on Wednesday, and crude oil prices rose due to a larger-than-expected decline in US crude oil inventories [5] - **Industry Analysis**: US soybeans are growing well, and the market is sensitive to weather. The new US biodiesel policy is expected to benefit US soybean oil demand, but the demand has decreased year-on-year. Domestic soybean imports are expected to decline seasonally, and soybean oil inventory may peak. Malaysian palm oil is likely to continue to accumulate inventory in August, and the demand for palm oil from Indonesian biodiesel may be better than expected. Domestic rapeseed oil inventory is slowly declining but remains high year-on-year [5] - **Outlook**: The adjustment pressure on oils and fats remains large in the near term, but there is a high probability of stronger performance in the medium term [5] 3.2 Protein Meal - **Market Data**: On August 28, 2025, the international soybean trade premium quotes showed different changes. The average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing was 89.69 yuan/ton, with a significant week-on-week decline [6] - **Logic Analysis**: Internationally, the good rate of US soybeans has recovered, and the weather in the US soybean-producing areas is generally favorable. Brazilian soybean exports have peaked, and the premium has been falling. Domestically, the import crushing margin has declined rapidly, and the state reserve will auction 164,000 tons of imported soybeans on August 29. The supply gap risk before December has significantly decreased, and the demand for soybean meal may increase steadily [7] - **Outlook**: The market maintains an internal-weak and external-strong pattern. It is recommended that oil mills sell on rallies for hedging, and downstream enterprises buy basis contracts or fix prices on dips [7] 3.3 Corn/Starch - **Market Information**: The average price of domestic corn was 2,351 yuan/ton, with a slight decline. The closing price of the main contract was 2,185 yuan/ton, with a 0.97% increase [7] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of old corn is tightening, but the supply of new corn will gradually increase. The demand side has some replenishment needs, and there is a risk of a late rebound. The long-term expectation is for prices to decline due to increased supply [7][8] - **Outlook**: In the short term, there is uncertainty in the destocking of old corn, and there is an expectation of price decline during the peak period of new corn listing. In the long term, the expectation of tight supply supports the idea of low-price buying [7][8] 3.4 Pigs - **Market Information**: On August 28, the price of live pigs in Henan was 13.64 yuan/kg, with a 0.59% increase. The closing price of the futures contract was 13,590 yuan/ton, with a 1.13% decrease [8] - **Logic Analysis**: In the short term, the supply of pigs is abundant, and the inventory pressure is high. The "anti-involution" policy is expected to guide the industry to eliminate excess capacity, but the implementation needs to be observed [8] - **Outlook**: The market is volatile, with the spot and near-term contracts remaining weak and the far-term contracts supported by the expectation of capacity reduction [8] 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Market Situation**: The natural rubber futures market was strong on Thursday, with prices rising [9] - **Logic Analysis**: The natural rubber market is in a seasonally rising period, with various speculative themes. The short-term supply of ships may decrease, and the demand is rigid. The supply increase may be postponed due to heavy rainfall in the producing areas [9][10] - **Outlook**: The macro sentiment is favorable, and the fundamentals are supportive in the short term. The rubber price is expected to be volatile and tend to strengthen [9][10] 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Market Situation**: The BR futures market rebounded following the trend of natural rubber [11] - **Logic Analysis**: The synthetic rubber market follows the trend of natural rubber and is supported by the tight supply of its raw material, butadiene. The supply of butadiene has decreased due to some device maintenance and production reduction, and the demand from the main downstream industries is stable [11] - **Outlook**: The price of butadiene is expected to rise slightly in the short term, and the futures market is expected to be volatile and tend to strengthen [11] 3.7 Cotton - **Market Information**: As of August 28, the number of registered warehouse receipts for the 24/25 cotton year was 6,720. The closing prices of Zhengzhou cotton futures contracts showed a decline [12] - **Logic Analysis**: The current commercial inventory of cotton is at a relatively low level, and the demand is improving. The expected increase in the purchase price of seed cotton by upstream ginneries will support the futures price. However, the expected increase in production in the new year may put pressure on prices [12] - **Outlook**: The cotton price is expected to be volatile and tend to strengthen in the short term, with a price range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton. It may face downward pressure after the new cotton is listed [12] 3.8 Sugar - **Market Information**: As of August 28, the closing prices of Zhengzhou sugar futures contracts showed a decline [13] - **Logic Analysis**: Internationally, the new sugar season is expected to have an oversupply situation, with Brazil's sugar production increasing and Thailand and India also expected to have higher yields. Domestically, the import volume of sugar has increased, leading to an increase in supply [13] - **Outlook**: In the long term, the sugar price is expected to decline due to the expected oversupply. In the short term, it is expected to be volatile within the range of 5,550 - 5,750 yuan/ton [13] 3.9 Pulp - **Market Information**: The prices of some pulp varieties in Shandong showed a decline [15] - **Logic Analysis**: The pulp futures market showed a divergence between the near and far contracts, with the main contract continuing to decline. The decline is mainly attributed to the delivery pressure of the 09 contract. The supply and demand situation has not changed significantly, with the broadleaf pulp market showing a marginal improvement [15] - **Outlook**: The pulp market is expected to be volatile, with the main contract remaining weak [15] 3.10 Logs - **Market Situation**: The log market was weak this week, with the 09 contract adjusting downward [16] - **Logic Analysis**: The fundamentals of the log market have improved marginally, with a reduction in supply pressure and an increase in cost. However, the new warehouse receipts and low buyer willingness may put pressure on the market [16] - **Outlook**: The log market is expected to be volatile and tend to weaken. It is recommended to buy the far-month 11 contract on dips in the range of 790 - 840 [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual products, it uses descriptions like "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", etc., with specific rating criteria provided at the end of the report [273]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The chemical industry is following the decline of raw materials such as coal and crude oil due to the absence of the expected anti - involution policy. The downstream demand of most chemical products is less than expected during the peak season. Investors should approach oil - chemical products with an oscillating mindset and wait for the specific anti - involution policies of China's petrochemical industry [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Situation and Logic of Each Product - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and the rebound space is expected to be limited. Geopolitical prospects are uncertain, and the market is under supply pressure from OPEC+ rapid production increase and resilient US production. The high -开工 rate of refineries in China and the US is starting to decline, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly, with attention to short - term disturbances from Russia - Ukraine negotiations [6]. - **Asphalt**: As crude oil prices fall, asphalt futures prices oscillate and decline. The supply tension has eased, and the demand is not optimistic. The absolute price is overestimated, and the monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [6][7]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the decline of crude oil. The geopolitical premium has increased and then decreased with the increase of warehouse receipts. The demand has changed, and the cracking spread is still high. Geopolitical upgrades have a short - term impact on prices [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the decline of crude oil. It faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand to decline, with low valuation and following crude oil fluctuations [10]. - **Methanol**: Port inventories are accumulating, but the inventory pressure in the inland is limited. The futures price oscillates. The market buying sentiment is relatively stable, and there may be long - term low - buying opportunities in the far - month [21]. - **Urea**: Foreign media reports have triggered an upward sentiment, but it is difficult to implement in practice. It is expected to fluctuate narrowly and oscillate [21]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Both supply and demand are increasing, and the low inventory provides strong support. The price oscillates within a range, and the 09 - 01 reverse arbitrage position can be closed [14][16]. - **PX**: There is selling - short hedging pressure above, and the downstream polyester's willingness to chase the price has slowed down. The price is adjusted in the short term, with a relatively stable pattern and limited adjustment range [11]. - **PTA**: The cost support is insufficient, and the downstream polyester is waiting and watching, with poor purchasing enthusiasm. The price is expected to oscillate within the range of 4700 - 5000 [11]. - **Short - Fiber**: After the atmosphere cools down, the sales volume declines, and the price is passively adjusted. The price is expected to oscillate and sort out in the short term [16][17][18]. - **Bottle - Chip**: The production reduction in September remains at 20% and can be expanded to 30% if necessary. The price is expected to oscillate, with the absolute value following the raw materials [18][20]. - **PP**: There is still some supply pressure, and it oscillates. The impact of news on production reduction is limited, and the demand is cautious [24][25]. - **Propylene (PL)**: It follows PP to oscillate in the short term. The price is affected by sentiment and inventory, and the processing fee between PP and PL is a key focus [25]. - **Plastic**: The maintenance provides some support, and it oscillates in the short term. The impact of news on production reduction is limited, and the supply pressure persists [23]. - **Pure Benzene**: The inventories in the industry chain are all high, and it returns to a weak state. The short - term trend is dominated by sentiment, and it may return to inventory accumulation in the medium term [11][13]. - **Styrene**: The inventory pressure is prominent, and it resumes decline. The supply - demand situation is still bearish in the fundamentals, but short - term short - selling is against the trend [13][14]. - **PVC**: The market sentiment weakens, and it runs weakly. The cost is stable, and the supply is decreasing while the demand has not changed much [28]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot rebound slows down, and the market observes the situation. The short - term spot increase slows down, and it is advisable to buy on dips in the long - term [28][29]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides inter - period spread data for multiple products such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., showing the changes in the spread [30]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It includes basis and warehouse receipt data for products like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., reflecting the relationship between spot and futures prices and inventory status [31]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The report presents inter - variety spread data such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc., showing the price differences between different products [32].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The precious metals market continued its volatile upward trend on Thursday. After the release of better - than - expected US Q2 GDP and lower - than - expected weekly initial and continuing jobless claims data, precious metals briefly pulled back but quickly regained ground due to the overall weakness of the US dollar and US Treasury yields. The US dollar gold price showed a more prominent upward trend, while the RMB gold price increase was limited by exchange - rate appreciation. Before the release of next week's non - farm payroll data, the market's expectation of a 25BP Fed rate cut in September remained stable, and dovish expectations were expected to continue to dominate the market, with the precious metals market likely to maintain a relatively strong volatile trend [1][3]. - The report is optimistic about the medium - term trend of gold but warns that the strengthening of emerging - market equities may suppress its elasticity. The Fed's rate - cut cycle is expected to resume in September. The shadow Fed chairman is likely to align with the president's preferences before taking office, and overseas liquidity is expected to expand in the next 1 - 2 quarters. The market may also trade the risk of the Fed's independence, which is positive for the gold trend. However, the strong performance of the global equity market, especially in emerging markets, may reduce the attractiveness of the precious metals market. A stagflation combination of rate cuts and a weakening economy is more beneficial to gold, while a rate - cut and recovery combination would limit gold's elasticity and benefit silver more [3]. - The weekly target ranges are [3300, 3500] for London gold spot and [36, 40] for London silver spot [4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - US Q2 real GDP annualized revised value increased by 3.3% quarter - on - quarter, higher than the expected 3.1% and the initial value of 3%. Real personal consumption expenditure revised value increased by 1.6% quarter - on - quarter, compared with the initial value of 1.4%. The final sales annualized revised value increased by 6.8% quarter - on - quarter, compared with the initial value of 6.3%. US Q2 corporate profits annualized initial value increased by 2% quarter - on - quarter, while the Q1 final value decreased by 3.3% [2]. - US Q2 core PCE price index annualized revised value increased by 2.5% quarter - on - quarter, lower than the expected 2.6% but the same as the initial value; it increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the same as the initial value. The US Q2 PCE price index annualized revised value increased by 2% quarter - on - quarter, compared with the initial value of 2.1%; it increased by 2.4% year - on - year, the same as the initial value [2]. - Last week, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 229,000, lower than the expected 230,000, and the previous value was revised from 235,000 to 234,000. The four - week average was 228,500, compared with the previous value of 226,250. The number of continuing jobless claims for the week ending August 16 was 1,954,000, lower than the expected 1,970,000, and the previous value was revised from 1,972,000 to 1,961,000 [2]. - Lisa Cook sued Trump for his attempt to remove her from the position of Fed governor [2]. Price Logic - The precious metals market's short - term pullback was due to economic data, but the overall upward trend was maintained because of the weak US dollar and US Treasury yields. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September was stable, and dovish expectations dominated. The medium - term outlook for gold was positive, but emerging - market equity strength might pose a challenge. Different economic combinations (rate cuts + weak economy or rate cuts + recovery) would have different impacts on gold and silver [3]. Outlook - The weekly target ranges are [3300, 3500] for London gold spot and [36, 40] for London silver spot [4]. Commodity Index - On August 28, 2025, the comprehensive commodity index data showed that the commodity index was 2215.26, up 0.18%; the commodity 20 index was 2466.34, up 0.28%; the industrial products index was 2250.61, up 0.27%; the PPI commodity index was 1320.77, down 0.04% [41]. - The precious metals index on August 28, 2025, was 2740.59, with a daily increase of 0.42%, a 5 - day increase of 1.50%, a 1 - month increase of 2.42%, and a year - to - date increase of 23.87% [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The US economic fundamentals remain stable in the short - term but face employment and inflation pressures in the medium - term. The expectation of monetary easing supports market risk appetite. In China, the difficulty of achieving the annual economic target is not high, and market risk appetite may also be supported. Short - term market volatility may increase as important events approach and economic growth slows [7]. - Different asset classes have different outlooks. Domestic market sentiment may remain high until early September, after which the pricing weight of fundamentals on assets may increase. Overseas, the expectation of a September interest rate cut is strengthening, and the overseas macro - monetary environment is expected to become looser [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The US economic fundamentals are stable in the short - term but face employment and inflation pressures in the medium - term. Powell's speech at the annual meeting was dovish, strengthening market expectations of interest rate cuts. US consumer confidence deteriorated in August, and inflation concerns rose again. In the real estate sector, new housing starts increased steadily in July, while building permit issuance continued to decline [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: The domestic economic fundamentals have weakened marginally, but it is still not difficult to achieve the annual economic target. Shanghai has optimized and adjusted real estate policies. The probability of a significant decline in external demand has decreased, and domestic demand remains at a reasonable level. The capital market remains loose, providing support for related assets [7]. - **Asset Views**: In the short - term, the domestic market may maintain high - level sentiment until early September. After important events, the pricing weight of fundamentals on assets, especially short - duration commodity assets, may increase. Overseas, the expectation of a September interest rate cut has strengthened, and the overseas macro - monetary environment is expected to enter a "loose expectation + weak US dollar" repair channel. Short - term market volatility may increase [7]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Leveraged funds are crowded, and there is early profit - taking. The decline of incremental funds is a concern. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The bearish side has strong betting. The deterioration of option market liquidity is a concern. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The capital market remains loose, and the yield curve steepens. Concerns include unexpected changes in tariffs, supply, and monetary easing. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The expectation of a restart of the US interest rate cut cycle in September is positive for prices, but the impact of market risk appetite needs attention. Concerns include US fundamentals, Fed monetary policy, and global equity market trends. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter is fading, and there is no driving force for price increases. The rate of price decline in September is a concern. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: The actual support is limited, and the futures prices are under pressure. Concerns include the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and pig iron production. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The daily consumption of imported sinter has decreased, and prices are oscillating within a narrow range. Concerns include overseas mine production and shipment, domestic pig iron production, weather, port inventory, and policy dynamics. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Coke**: The eighth - round negotiation continues, and some coke enterprises are reducing production. Concerns include steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Coking Coal**: Production has decreased, and futures prices continue to be weak. Concerns include steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: The black chain is under pressure, and futures prices are weak. Concerns include raw material costs and steel procurement. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The sector remains weak, and futures prices are running weakly. Concerns include cost prices and overseas quotes. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Glass**: Spot sales and production are maintained, and some regions are promoting price stability through price increases. Concerns include spot sales and production. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply has decreased in the short - term, and rigid demand remains. Concerns include soda ash inventory. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The suspension of Sino - US tariffs has been extended, and copper prices are oscillating at a high level. Concerns include supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - dovish Fed policies, weaker - than - expected domestic demand recovery, and economic recession. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Alumina**: The spot market is weakly stable, and warehouse receipts are increasing. Alumina prices are under pressure and oscillating. Concerns include unexpected delays in ore production resumption, unexpected over - recovery of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme sector trends. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Aluminum**: Social inventory has slightly accumulated, and aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level. Concerns include macro risks, supply disruptions, and weaker - than - expected demand. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Zinc**: The prices of the black series have fallen, and zinc prices are oscillating downward. Concerns include macro - turning risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply. The short - term outlook is oscillatory downward [8]. - **Lead**: Consumption is still unclear, and lead prices are oscillating downward. Concerns include supply - side disruptions and a slowdown in battery exports. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Nickel**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and nickel prices are oscillating widely. Concerns include unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and less - than - expected supply release. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of ferronickel has been rising, and the stainless - steel futures prices are correcting. Concerns include Indonesian policy risks and unexpected growth in demand. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Tin**: Raw material supply remains tight, and tin prices are oscillating at a high level. Concerns include the expected resumption of production in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Coal prices are fluctuating, and silicon prices are continuously volatile. Concerns include unexpected production cuts on the supply side and unexpected photovoltaic installations. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The game between bulls and bears continues, and prices are oscillating widely. Concerns include weaker - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure continues, and the sustainability of the rebound is expected to be limited. Concerns include OPEC+ production policies and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. The short - term outlook is oscillatory downward [10]. - **LPG**: The cracking spread has stabilized. Attention should be paid to cost - side guidance. Concerns include the progress of crude oil and overseas propane costs. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Asphalt**: Crude oil prices have fallen, and asphalt futures prices are oscillating downward. Concerns include sanctions and supply disruptions. The short - term outlook is downward [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil prices are following the decline of crude oil. Concerns include geopolitics and crude oil prices. The short - term outlook is downward [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices are oscillating downward following crude oil. Concerns include crude oil prices. The short - term outlook is downward [10]. - **Methanol**: Port inventory has accumulated, but petrochemical news has provided short - term support. Methanol prices are oscillating. Concerns include macro - energy and upstream and downstream device dynamics. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Urea**: Domestic supply and demand cannot provide strong support, and export - driven effects are less than expected. Urea prices are oscillating in the short - term. Concerns include export policy trends and the elimination of production capacity. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Low inventory and peak - season expectations resonate, providing strong support for prices at the lower end. Concerns include fluctuations in coal and oil prices, port inventory rhythm, and unexpected device shutdowns. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **PX**: Emotional stimulation and peak - season promotion. Concerns include significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, macro - abnormalities, and less - than - expected peak - season demand. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [10]. - **PTA**: Supply decreases and demand increases, with an expected inventory reduction from August to October. Concerns include significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, macro - abnormalities, and less - than - expected peak - season demand. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: The peak season for terminal products has started, and yarn mills are mainly focused on capital recovery. Concerns include the purchasing rhythm of downstream yarn mills and unexpected device load reduction. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Bottle Chips**: Inventory has declined, and processing fees are under pressure due to the strong performance of upstream products. Concerns include unexpected production increases by bottle - chip enterprises and a surge in overseas export orders. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Propylene**: In the short - term, it mainly follows the fluctuations of PP. Concerns include oil prices and the domestic macro - environment. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **PP**: News related to Zhonghan Petrochemical has stimulated the market, but fundamental support is limited. PP prices are oscillating. Concerns include oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - environments. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Plastic**: News of anti - internal competition in the petrochemical industry has provided support, and plastic prices have strengthened slightly. Concerns include oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - environments. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Styrene**: Commodity sentiment has improved. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policy details. Concerns include oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **PVC**: Market sentiment has improved, and PVC prices have weakly stabilized. Concerns include expectations, costs, and supply. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Caustic Soda and Oils**: The rebound of spot prices has slowed down, and short - term long positions in the near - month contracts have taken profits. The expectation of a bumper soybean harvest in the US continues, and there is still significant pressure for oil price adjustments. Concerns include market sentiment, production start - up, demand, US soybean weather, and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Protein Meal**: The import and crushing profit of soybeans has declined rapidly. Attention should be paid to the support at the integer - level mark for soybean meal. Concerns include US soybean weather, domestic demand, the macro - environment, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: The decline of spot prices has slowed down, and futures prices have rebounded slightly. Concerns include weaker - than - expected demand, the macro - environment, and weather. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Pigs**: Inventory pressure remains, and futures prices continue to be weak. Concerns include breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Rubber**: Prices are following the market sentiment and falling, with little change in its own situation. Concerns include production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Futures prices are following the decline of natural rubber. Concerns include significant fluctuations in crude oil prices. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [10]. - **Pulp**: Prices have been continuously declining, possibly due to pricing based on spruce. Concerns include macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - denominated quotes. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are fluctuating within a narrow range. Attention should be paid to the expected purchase price. Concerns include demand and inventory. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Sugar**: The short - term supply pressure has increased, and sugar prices continue to decline. Concerns include imports. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Logs**: Delivery pressure remains high, and log prices are adjusting weakly. Concerns include shipment volume and dispatch volume. The short - term outlook is oscillatory downward [10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The risk appetite in the market has been restored. The stock index futures showed a V-shaped rebound and are in high-level oscillations. The stock index options suggest continuing to hold bull spreads. The bond market curve of treasury bond futures is steepening [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Views Stock Index Futures - The market outlook is oscillating with a bullish bias. The IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts showed specific changes in basis, inter - period spreads, and positions. The market sentiment has been repaired, with a preference for technology - growth stocks. It is considered a bull - market oscillation, and dips are good opportunities to add positions. The recommended operation is to allocate IM long positions [7] Stock Index Options - The market outlook is oscillating. The option market turnover remained stable, and the mid - term sentiment is optimistic. The volatility of different varieties varies. It is recommended to continue holding bull spreads [2][8] Treasury Bond Futures - The market outlook is oscillating. The treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the yield curve continued to steepen. The central bank's net injection supported the short - end of the bond market, while the long - end was under pressure. Short - term opportunities in long - end arbitrage and curve steepening can be focused on. Different strategies such as trend, hedging, basis, and curve strategies are recommended [8][9][10] 2. Economic Calendar - The economic calendar includes data from the US, China, and Japan, such as new home sales, house price indices, industrial enterprise profits, and unemployment claims [11] 3. Important Information and News Tracking - The government released an opinion on promoting high - quality urban development, covering housing construction, community improvement, and urban renewal. Multiple small and medium - sized banks have lowered RMB deposit rates, and the deposit rates are still under downward pressure. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce is involved in international economic and trade negotiations [12][13][14] 4. Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions monitoring data for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided content [15][19][31]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On August 28, equity indices rose, while CGB futures fell. Most commodities declined, with energy and chemical products seeing a significant drop [4][11][13]. - The top three gainers were apple, iron ore, and corn, while the top three decliners were SCFIS(Europe), lithium carbonate, and egg [11][12][13]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On August 28, equity indices rose, and CGB futures fell. Most commodities declined, with energy and chemical products having a significant drop. Apple, iron ore, and corn were the top three gainers, and SCFIS(Europe), lithium carbonate, and egg were the top three decliners [11][12][13]. 1.2 Daily Raise - **Iron Ore**: On August 28, it increased by 1.7% to 790.5 yuan/ton. Demand remains high, supply and inventories are stable, and prices are expected to fluctuate in the subsequent period [17][19]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil & Steel Rebar**: On August 28, hot - rolled coil increased by 0.8% to 3385 yuan/ton, and steel rebar increased by 0.5% to 3129 yuan/ton. The off - season is ending, steel inventories are accumulating, and the market is cautious about peak - season demand. Short - term futures are expected to fluctuate widely, and future focus should be on mill production restrictions and end - user demand [23][24][27]. 1.3 Daily Drop - **Lithium Carbonate**: On August 28, it decreased by 2.3% to 78140 yuan/ton. The emotional impact of mine suspension has ended, and the market is back in the game stage. There is a gradually emerging supply - demand gap, but high prices may stimulate supply release. Be cautious about extreme price movements and consider trading opportunities such as buying near - month contracts on pullbacks [32][35][36]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - Li Chenggang, International Trade Negotiation Representative of MOFCOM, led a delegation to visit Canada from the 24th to the 27th and will then go to Washington to meet with relevant U.S. officials [41]. - By the end of July 2025, the total balance of local government debt across the country was RMB 52.7627 trillion, with an average remaining term of 10.3 years and an average interest rate of 2.90% [41]. - Bloomberg reported that Mexico may raise tariffs on some Chinese products in the 2026 budget proposal [41]. 2.2 Industry News - As of August 27, 3290 A - share listed companies have released their 2025 interim reports, and QFII appeared in the top 10 tradable shareholders of 663 companies. QFII increased its A - share allocation in Q2, with a持仓市值 of over 12 billion yuan in the electronics industry and over 5 billion yuan in the non - ferrous metals industry [42].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-08-28 股指期权方面，看跌侧博弈偏强。昨日从成交结构来看，整体看跌成 交占比边际上升，市场逻辑有切向下跌博弈的趋势。从持仓量PCR来看， 整体并未有大幅回落，甚至沪市500ETF继续上行至新高，似乎中期卖方资 金仍以波动回落叠加下跌空间不大为主要观点，但需要注意的是偏度方面 500ETF也有明显冲高，表明部分买权也在博弈隔夜下跌持续性，但多数品 种偏度仍处于中部区间，判断市场情绪转变为时尚早。波动率方面，日内 交易行为对部分小品种冲击较大，例如深市部分品种和HO，其余品种以高 位震荡为主，波动下行拐点未现，卖权建议观望，暂维持多delta类策 略，考虑到市场近两日有暂歇迹象，推测短期上方可能较难突破，更加推 荐以牛市价差组合降低成本。 市场⻛险偏好有所降温 股指期货：杠杆资⾦拥挤，出现抢跑⽌盈。 股指期权：看跌侧博弈偏强。 国债期货：债市曲线⾛陡。 股指期货方面，杠杆资金拥挤，出现抢跑止盈。周三上证指数下跌1. 76%，创4月初加征关税以来最大单日跌幅，收盘险守3800点。变盘时点在 午后，"固收+"投资者出现恐高 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and fats: In the near term, it may continue to fluctuate and adjust, with a high probability of continuing to strengthen in the medium term [5] - Protein meal: The market continues the pattern of weak domestic and strong overseas, with domestic spot stronger than the futures [1][6][7] - Corn and starch: In the short term, the price fluctuates weakly; there is still a downward expectation during the new crop's concentrated listing period; in the long term, the market supports the idea of low - level absorption in the far - month [7][8] - Pigs: The fundamentals remain loose, with spot and near - month contracts expected to remain weak, and far - month contracts supported by supply - side capacity reduction expectations [9] - Natural rubber: The short - term trend is expected to fluctuate strongly [11] - Synthetic rubber: The futures may fluctuate strongly in the short term [12] - Cotton: From now to early October, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly; it may be under pressure after the large - scale listing of new cotton [13] - Sugar: In the long term, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly; in the short term, it runs in the range of 5550 - 5750 yuan/ton [15] - Pulp: The futures are expected to fluctuate [16] - Logs: The 09 contract has pressure, dragging down far - month contracts [17] 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural product market shows different trends. Some products are affected by factors such as weather, supply and demand, and policies, resulting in fluctuations in prices. The report provides investment suggestions based on the analysis of various factors of different products [1][5][7] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **Logic**: Affected by factors such as US monetary policy, crude oil, and soybean weather, domestic and foreign oil and fat markets fluctuate. The export and production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia, and the inventory and import of domestic oils also have an impact on the market [5] - **Outlook**: In the near term, it may continue to fluctuate and adjust; in the medium term, there is a high probability of continuing to strengthen [5] 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **Logic**: Internationally, the excellent rate of US soybeans has rebounded, and Brazilian soybean exports have passed the peak. Domestically, the state reserve will auction soybeans, and the spot is stronger than the futures. The supply gap risk before December has weakened, and the demand for soybean meal may increase steadily [1][7] - **Outlook**: The market continues the pattern of weak domestic and strong overseas. It is recommended that oil mills sell hedging on rallies, and downstream enterprises buy basis contracts or price on dips [1][7] 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - **Logic**: The domestic corn price is stable with a slight decline. The supply side inventory is digested, and the demand side acceptance of high - priced grain is low. The new crop's production situation is normal, and the supply is expected to increase [7][8] - **Outlook**: In the short term, the price fluctuates weakly; in the long term, the market supports the far - month low - level absorption idea [7][8] 3.1.4 Pigs - **Logic**: The short - term supply is abundant, and the medium - term supply is expected to increase. The demand may increase with the cooling weather, and the "anti - involution" policy is being promoted [9] - **Outlook**: The fundamentals remain loose, with spot and near - month contracts expected to remain weak, and far - month contracts supported by supply - side capacity reduction expectations [9] 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **Logic**: The price follows the financial market down. The supply and demand side is in the seasonal rising period, with many speculation themes, and the short - term supply may decrease while the demand is rigid [11] - **Outlook**: The short - term trend is expected to fluctuate strongly [11] 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The futures follow the natural rubber down. The raw material butadiene is short - term tight, providing cost support [12] - **Outlook**: The short - term futures may fluctuate strongly [12] 3.1.7 Cotton - **Logic**: The commercial inventory is low, the downstream demand is improving, and the expected purchase price of ginned cotton by upstream ginning mills is increasing [13] - **Outlook**: From now to early October, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly; it may be under pressure after the large - scale listing of new cotton [13] 3.1.8 Sugar - **Logic**: Internationally, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus. Domestically, the import volume is increasing [15] - **Outlook**: In the long term, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly; in the short term, it runs in the range of 5550 - 5750 yuan/ton [15] 3.1.9 Pulp - **Logic**: The futures continue to decline, mainly due to the delivery pressure of bleached softwood kraft pulp. The supply and demand change is not significant, and the short - term weakness continues [16] - **Outlook**: The futures are expected to fluctuate [16] 3.1.10 Logs - **Logic**: The 09 contract has delivery pressure, dragging down far - month contracts. The short - term fundamentals have improved marginally, but there are still delivery product pressures [17] - **Outlook**: The 09 contract has pressure, dragging down far - month contracts [17] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report monitors data of various varieties including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, starch, pigs, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but specific data details are not fully presented in the text [20][38][51] 3.3 Rating Standards - The rating standards include "strong", "fluctuating strongly", "fluctuating", "fluctuating weakly", "weakly", with a time cycle of 2 - 12 weeks and the standard deviation defined as 1 - time standard deviation = 500 - trading - day rolling standard deviation/current price [167] 3.4 Commodity Index - On August 27, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all declined. The agricultural product index also declined, with a year - to - date increase of 1.84% [169][171]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market is expected to continue a moderately strong and volatile trend. The dovish expectation that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25BP in September is likely to dominate the market. The research team is optimistic about the medium - term trend of gold but warns that the recovery expectation from the strong performance of emerging - market equities may suppress its elasticity. The Fed is expected to restart the interest - rate cut cycle in September, and overseas liquidity will maintain an expansion trend in the next 1 - 2 quarters, which is favorable for the gold trend. The current weak economic reality has not reversed, and the "interest - rate cut + fundamental downturn" stagflation - like combination is more beneficial to gold. If the situation changes to an "interest - rate cut + recovery" combination, silver will benefit more [2][4][7]. 3) Summary by Related Content Key Information - Trump's executive order to double India's tariffs to 50% took effect. Starting from 00:01 on the 27th Eastern Time, the US imposed an additional 25% ad - valorem tariff on imported Indian goods, causing many US customers to cancel orders. - The Trump administration is considering exerting greater influence on the 12 regional reserve banks of the Fed. Trump claims to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook from office, and if approved by the court, he will have the opportunity to control a majority of seats on the seven - member Fed Board of Governors. - Fed's Williams is quite optimistic about the economic situation, stating that the Fed may still maintain a certain degree of restrictiveness after interest - rate cuts, and each meeting is full of uncertainties [3]. Price Logic - On Wednesday, gold continued its moderately strong and volatile trend, while silver weakened slightly. Concerns about the Fed's independence are intensifying, and the doubling of US - India tariffs has increased the long - term stagflation expectation in the US. The late - session decline of the domestic equity market has suppressed silver prices in the short term. Before the release of next week's non - farm payroll data, the market's expectation of a 25BP interest - rate cut by the Fed in September remains stable [2][4]. Outlook - The weekly range for spot London gold is expected to be between 3300 and 3500, and for spot London silver, it is expected to be between 36 and 40 [7]. Index Data - On August 27, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures Commodity was 2211.28, down 0.50%; the Commodity 20 Index was 2459.50, down 0.54%; the industrial products index was 2244.49, down 0.59%. The precious metals index was 2729.16, with a daily decline of 0.16%, a 5 - day increase of 1.02%, a 1 - month increase of 1.05%, and a year - to - date increase of 23.36% [46][48].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. However, based on the individual product outlooks, most products are expected to be in a "volatile" state, with some being "volatile and weak" or having specific support and resistance levels for trading[4]. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The energy and chemical industry will continue to be volatile. The conflict in Ukraine has affected Russia's crude oil supply and refinery production, which will provide some short - term support to the oil product market. The chemical sector is influenced by raw materials, and the decline of chemical products will not exceed that of the raw material end. Asphalt has a relatively healthy pattern[2][3]. - Different products have different trends: crude oil is expected to be volatile and weak; asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil follow the trend of crude oil; methanol, urea, etc. have their own specific trends based on supply, demand, and inventory factors[4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and oil prices are expected to be volatile and weak. The decline in refinery开工率 and the potential increase in crude oil inventory are concerns. Pay attention to short - term disturbances from the Russia - Ukraine negotiation[10]. - **Asphalt**: As crude oil prices fall, asphalt futures prices are volatile and falling. The supply tension has eased, and demand remains unoptimistic. The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued, and the monthly spread is expected to decline[11]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the decline of crude oil. The increase in inventory and the weakening of some demand factors lead to the decline[12]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It also follows the decline of crude oil. Facing factors such as the decline in shipping demand and the increase in supply, it is expected to maintain low - valuation operation[13]. - **Methanol**: Port inventory continues to accumulate, and the futures price is volatile and weak. Although there are some policy - related boosts, the actual impact is limited. There may be opportunities to go long in the far - month contract[24][25]. - **Urea**: Some enterprises are under maintenance and shutdown, and the market is in weak consolidation. Wait for positive expectations, and pay attention to actual demand and the new Indian tender[25][26]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: With low inventory, price support is strong. The delay in the restart of near - ocean devices and the expected increase in terminal demand provide support[16][17][19]. - **PX**: Affected by cost, after the seasonal improvement in demand, the bottom support is strong. It is expected to oscillate within a range and wait for the stabilization of oil prices[14]. - **PTA**: Due to insufficient cost support, the polyester sales atmosphere cools down. It is recommended to operate within the range of 4700 - 5000[14]. - **Short - Fiber**: After the atmosphere cools down, sales decline, and prices are passively adjusted. It will oscillate in the short term and follow the trend of raw materials[20][21]. - **Bottle - Chip**: As the cost declines, prices are passively adjusted. It is expected to oscillate and follow the trend of raw materials[21][22]. - **PP**: With the weakening of macro - support, it oscillates and declines. Although there are some short - term news stimuli, the actual impact is limited[29][30]. - **Propylene (PL)**: It follows the oscillation of PP in the short term. The processing fee is a key concern[30][34]. - **Plastic**: Due to the retracement of macro - sentiment, it oscillates in the short term. The supply pressure persists, and it is necessary to pay attention to the downstream demand in the peak season[28][29]. - **Pure Benzene**: With the decline of commodity sentiment and high inventory in the industry chain, it returns to a weak state[14]. - **Styrene**: With the decline of commodity sentiment and prominent inventory pressure, it resumes falling. Although there are short - term emotional supports, the inventory pressure limits the increase[15][16]. - **PVC**: As market sentiment weakens, it operates weakly. The fundamentals are under pressure, and it is expected to have a wide - range oscillation[35]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot rebound slows down, and the market is on the sidelines for the moment. In the short term, the spot increase slows down, and in the long term, it is recommended to buy on dips[35][36]. 2. Variety Data Monitoring (1) Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different products have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent (M1 - M2: 0.53, change: 0.01), Dubai (M1 - M2: 1.53, change: 0.12), etc.[37]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each product has its own basis and warehouse receipt data, for example, asphalt (basis: 49, change: 32, warehouse receipts: 71500)[38]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: There are also specific values and changes in inter - variety spreads, like 1 - month PP - 3MA (- 95, change: 44), 1 - month TA - EG (343, change: - 37)[39].