投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 Investment Consulting Business Qualification： CSRC License [2012] No. 669 China Commodity Futures Cross-Border Arbitrage Weekly Report 中国商品期货跨境套利周报 January 27, 2026 王含章 Wang Hanzhang 从业资格号：F03121254 Qualification No. 投资咨询号：Z0022985 Investment consulting No. 姜婧 Jiang Jing CFA 从业资格号：F3018552 Qualification No. 投资咨询号：Z0013315 Investment consulting No. 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi CFA PhD 从业资格号：F3023159 Qualification No. 投资咨询号：Z0013632 Investment consulting No. 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual outlooks for different agricultural products: - Oils and fats: Bullish with oscillations [8] - Protein meal: Sideways movement [11] - Corn/starch: Sideways movement [14] - Hogs: Bearish with oscillations [16] - Natural rubber: Sideways movement within a range [20] - Synthetic rubber: Bullish with oscillations after adjustment [22] - Cotton: Bullish with oscillations [23] - Sugar: Bearish with oscillations [24] - Pulp: Bearish with oscillations [25] - Offset paper: Bearish with oscillations [27] - Logs: Sideways movement [28] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the supply, demand, and market trends of various agricultural products. It points out that the hog market is under pressure due to oversupply in the short - to - medium term but may improve in the second half of 2026. Oils and fats are supported by factors such as palm oil production decline and export increase. Protein meal is affected by overseas supply and domestic inventory. Corn and starch markets are in a tight balance. Other products also have their own supply - demand characteristics and market trends [16][8][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Bullish with oscillations. The overall trend of vegetable oils is bullish due to factors like the decline in Malaysian palm oil production and the increase in exports. The market is also affected by factors such as Trump's tariff remarks on canola and the expected bio - diesel policy in the US [8]. - **Logic**: In January 2026, Malaysian palm oil production decreased, while exports increased. The Canadian canola supply and demand situation has changed, and the US bio - diesel policy provides emotional support. The supply of soybeans and canola is relatively abundant, and palm oil is about to enter the production - reduction season with a de - stocking trend [8]. - **Outlook**: Bullish with oscillations. It is recommended to consider buying hedging after a pullback and a long - palm oil short - canola oil arbitrage strategy [9]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **View**: Sideways movement. The international soybean trade premium has increased, and the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are relatively high [11]. - **Logic**: Brazil's soybean harvest progress is normal, while Argentina may face potential production reduction risks. The US soybean supply is expected to increase, and the net long position of US soybean funds has decreased. In China, the inventory reduction of oil mills is slow, and the downstream pre - holiday stocking provides some support, but the increase in the oil mill operating rate suppresses the upward movement of the price [11]. - **Outlook**: Sideways movement. The soybean meal will continue to trade in a low - level range, and the canola meal is expected to move sideways [11]. 3.3 Corn/Starch - **View**: Sideways movement. The spot price is firm, and the futures price is adjusting [13]. - **Logic**: The supply in the upstream is slightly loose, but the overall situation is still tight. The selling pressure before the Spring Festival is not large, and the feed enterprises maintain a certain inventory. The deep - processing enterprises' inventory has increased, but the subsequent upward momentum is limited. The substitute grains and policy grains also affect the market [14]. - **Outlook**: Sideways movement. The market is in a state with a ceiling and a floor in the short term [14]. 3.4 Hogs - **View**: Bearish with oscillations. The upstream supply is sufficient, and the hog price continues to weaken [15]. - **Logic**: In the short term, the slaughter rhythm is slow at the beginning of the month and may accelerate at the end of the month. In the medium term, the supply will be in surplus until April 2026. In the long term, the sow capacity started to decline in the third quarter of 2025, and the supply pressure is expected to ease after May 2026. The demand is shrinking, and the inventory has increased [16]. - **Outlook**: Bearish with oscillations. There is a risk of concentrated inventory release before the Spring Festival, and the fundamentals will remain weak after the festival. It is recommended to consider short - selling hedging opportunities in the first half of the year. The hog cycle is expected to bottom out and recover in the second half of 2026 [16]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: Sideways movement within a range. The price is affected by factors such as raw material prices and downstream demand [19]. - **Logic**: The natural rubber price has been oscillating at a high level. The overseas supply is relatively abundant, and the demand from tire enterprises before the festival provides some support, but the inventory is increasing rapidly. The short - term fundamental driving force is insufficient, but the rubber is supported by the bullish trend of the chemical sector [20]. - **Outlook**: Sideways movement. It is recommended to adopt a long - position strategy on pullbacks in the medium term, and the short - term price may return to a wide - range oscillation [20]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: There is a need for adjustment. The price of butadiene rubber has increased rapidly and needs to be adjusted [21]. - **Logic**: The BR futures price has fallen after a sharp rise. The overall chemical sector has seen a large outflow of funds, but the medium - term core logic of tight butadiene supply in the first half of 2026 remains unchanged. The price of butadiene has continued to rise, and the market sentiment is bullish [22]. - **Outlook**: Bullish with oscillations after adjustment. The butadiene supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, but short - term adjustment is needed [22]. 3.7 Cotton - **View**: Bullish with oscillations. The price is adjusting, and attention should be paid to the lower support [23]. - **Logic**: The cotton inspection is nearing completion, the cotton import has increased, and the downstream pre - holiday stocking has increased. The cotton fundamentals are healthy, but there is a lack of new positive factors in the short term. In the medium and long term, the cotton supply may be in a tight - balance situation, and the price is expected to rise [23]. - **Outlook**: Bullish with oscillations. It is recommended to buy on pullbacks [23]. 3.8 Sugar - **View**: Bearish with oscillations. The sugar price is oscillating [24]. - **Logic**: The global raw sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 2025/26 season, and the prices of domestic and international sugar have fallen to a relatively low level. The production in major producing countries is increasing, and the domestic supply is also increasing [24]. - **Outlook**: Bearish with oscillations. It is recommended to short on rebounds [24]. 3.9 Pulp - **View**: Bearish with oscillations. The broad - leaf pulp price is falling, and the pulp fundamentals are weak [25]. - **Logic**: The demand for pulp is decreasing due to the decline in downstream production. The broad - leaf pulp has weakened significantly, while the impact on coniferous pulp is relatively small. The import cost provides some support, but there are many negative factors such as seasonal demand decline and abundant inventory [25]. - **Outlook**: Bearish with oscillations. The pulp futures price is expected to move weakly in the short - term range [25]. 3.10 Offset Paper - **View**: Bearish with oscillations. The offset paper is trading in a range [27]. - **Logic**: The offset paper market is stable, but the supply pressure still exists. The downstream demand is weak, and the paper mills' price - increase efforts are difficult to pass on. The industry's operating rate is expected to decline, and the market trading volume is expected to decrease [27]. - **Outlook**: Bearish with oscillations. The spot price is expected to be stable before the Spring Festival, and the futures price will oscillate weakly in the range [27]. 3.11 Logs - **View**: Sideways movement. Attention should be paid to breaking through the upper pressure level [28]. - **Logic**: The log futures price has been oscillating around 770 - 780 yuan/cubic meter. The next pressure level is around 800 yuan/cubic meter. The negative factors in the market have been digested, and the spot price has increased, which may drive the market sentiment. The 03 contract can be traded in the range of 760 - 800 yuan/cubic meter [28]. - **Outlook**: Sideways movement. The market is expected to trade in a short - term range [28].

册货有限公司 中东库存持续回升 -Kpler原油库存数据报告 研究员:李云旭 从业资格号 F03141405 投资咨询号 Z0021671 Kp ler数据显示: 1月25日当周，全球陆地及浮仓库存变动较小,全口径（含在途）库存回落，即在途船货数量减少。陆上库存分区域看,中 国、俄罗斯、中东库存回升,其中中东库存开年以来自底部持续回升,印度、欧洲库存回落。 风险提示:Kpler对数据进行回溯调整。 图表 2:全球原油浮仓 图表 1:全球陆上原油库存 - 2023 - 2022 2026 · - 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 - 2025 -- 2024 手段 千瓶 3600000 2400000 210000 3550000 180000 35000000 150000 3450000 120000 34000000 90000 3350000 3300000 资料来源:Kpler 中信期货研究所 资料来源:Kpler 中信期货研 图表 3:全球陆塑+学仓展油 2023 - 2022 2023 - 2022 千橙 千種 3800000 4900000 0000000 3700000 47 ...

Where Are Gold and Silver Heading to After Key Prices Breakthrough? 金银向上突破后去向何方? Investment consulting business qualification: CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询号Consulting No .: Z0021426 从业资格号Qualification No: F03138401 朱善颖 Zhu Shanying 桂晨曦 Gui ChenXi 从业资格号 Qualification No: F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No .: Z0013632 Price Movement 价格异动 the risk of overheating in the short-term market continues to increase. Gold and silver need to pay attention to the rhythm. The long-term upward trend is expected to continue, ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2026-01-27 股市回撤，仍建议配置 股指期货：回撤不改趋势 股指期权：⻛格分化，波动抬⾼ 国债期货：曲线继续⾛平 股指期货方面，受亚太市场普跌影响，周一盘面放量小幅回撤，其中 偏防御属性的红利指数领跑，有色、油气等涨价链相对强势。回撤原因部 分与外部环境不稳有关，无论是地缘风险还是美联储主席人选等问题均有 不确定性，在持续上涨之后，部分资金有落袋为安需求，故导致盘面波 折。在此环境下，资金选择通胀主线进行进攻，鉴于中证500财务指标与P PI更为挂钩，配置上仍推荐IC多单。 股指期权方面，昨日期权市场成交量相较前一交易日抬升，重新进入 高位区间，随之而来的是各品种波动率的普遍上行。情绪指标方面，50ET F、300ETF持仓量PCR出现触底反弹迹象，500ETF、MO、双创等则高位回 落，卖方市场整体偏跟随；偏度指数方面，各品种出现普遍低位的现象， 结合昨日波动率继续上行，可推测买方博弈情绪相对较强，权益类资产短 期仍较为看好，方向上推荐适当买入认购。波动率层面，虽然当前隐含波 动率下方空间较大，但在中期拐点未见的情况下 ...

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: The MFAresponded to reports that British Prime Minister will visit China this week. Futures Prices: On Jan 26, equity index futures and CGB futures were mixed. Most Commodities rose, with Precious Metals leading the ri ...

钢材供应端存在扰动，钢⼚复产节奏偏缓，铁矿⽯⾼发运⾼库存压制 盘⾯估值。随着煤焦下游补库推进，煤焦补库⽀撑弱化。淡季钢材端 累库压⼒渐显，基本⾯缺乏亮点，成本端⽀撑松动，盘⾯表现承压。 玻璃纯碱供需过剩继续压制盘⾯价格。 钢材供应端存在扰动，钢厂复产节奏偏缓，铁矿石高发运高库存压制 盘面估值。随着煤焦下游补库推进，煤焦补库支撑弱化。淡季钢材端 累库压力渐显，基本面缺乏亮点，成本端支撑松动，盘面表现承压。 玻璃纯碱供需过剩继续压制盘面价格。 1. 铁元素方面：到港减量，短期供应压力稍缓，库存压力仍在增 加，天气影响供应端仍存扰动预期，需求端节前补库支撑矿价，现实 方面供需两端仍有待验证。废钢供应回升，日耗有下降预期，整体基 本面将边际转弱，预计现货价格跟随成材。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2026-01-27 淡季缺乏亮点，盘⾯⽀撑松动 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭成本端支撑坚挺，且钢厂复产预期仍在，冬储 补库需求仍存，焦炭供需结构矛盾有限，现货提涨仍有望落地，盘面 预计跟随焦煤运行。需求端冬储仍在进行，供应端煤矿临近假期产量 也有下滑预期，焦煤基本面将延续边际改 ...

地缘扰动与弱美元共振，⾦银再度加速 上⾏ 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2026-1-27 在地缘⻛险与美元信⽤担忧主导下，贵⾦属近期强势上⾏。⻩⾦短期延续 强势但⾼位波动⻛险放⼤，中⻓期上涨逻辑未改；⽩银凭借更强弹性短期 加速上涨后或转⼊⾼位震荡，但需警惕快速上涨后的回撤⻛险。两者均需 关注地缘局势、美联储政策变化等⻛险因素。（以上数据与新闻均来⾃万 得数据终端） 黄金观点 短期延续强势上行，地缘风险与美元信用逻辑主导，需关注高位波动 放大风险。 逻辑： 1月26日金银价格再度大幅拉升。截至国内收盘，沪金上涨3. 67%，伦敦金现日内突破5100美元/盎司，刷新历史高位。1月以来， 美国与南美、欧洲及伊朗相关冲突频繁，地缘风险持续外溢，市场对 美元信用的担忧有所升温。在美国股债汇同步走弱的背景下，贵金属 的避险与再定价属性阶段性占优，成为金价上行的重要驱动。（以上 数据及新闻均来自万得数据终端） 展望：在地缘冲突反复、美元信用叙事强化及美联储独立性风险抬升 的背景下，黄金中长期上涨逻辑未改，短期需警惕高位波动放大与情 绪过热后的技术性修正。 白银观点 短期延续 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2026-01-27 哈萨克斯坦原油供应即将回归，地缘和 预期促使能化延续震荡 原油市场延续震荡整理格局，多重因素作用于油价之上。原油实际供 需而言，彭博报道哈萨克斯坦的原油出口终端已经完成修复，田吉兹巨型 油田的生产也即将重启，这将有助于缓解欧洲市场的偏紧格局。1月20日 当周，强冬季风暴登陆美国大西洋沿岸，带来强降雪和冻雨天气，2月3日 左右美国气温又将明显回升。美国总统特朗普向中东地区派遣海军兵力 后，当地地缘紧张局势持续升级，伊朗日产原油超过300万桶，是具有地 缘意义的产油国，局势的不确定性对油价形成支撑。（以上新闻和数据均 来自彭博终端） 板块逻辑： 化工延续震荡整理态势，供需面的因素退居其次，预期的力量依旧较 强。液体化工库存周度全线增加，纯苯华东港口库存环比增2.69%，苯乙 烯华东港口库存环比增7.59%，乙二醇华东港口库存环比增7.8%，化工实 体需求即将逐步进入消费淡季，产业将逐步累库。化工整体处于震荡格 局，芳烃生产已经出现利润，但当前也看不到供给大幅增加打压价格的情 况；聚烯烃期价反弹，油制烯烃生产盈亏格 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers individual outlooks for various agricultural commodities: - **Oils and Fats**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias [4][7]. - **Protein Meal**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate [9][11]. - **Corn/Starch**: Expected to fluctuate [12]. - **Hogs**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward bias in the short - term, and the price is expected to bottom out and recover in the second half of 2026 [13]. - **Natural Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate, with a mid - term strategy of buying on dips [16]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate with an upward bias in the mid - term [19]. - **Cotton**: Expected to fluctuate with an upward bias, suggesting buying on dips [20]. - **Sugar**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward bias [20]. - **Pulp**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward bias [21][23]. - **Offset Paper**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward bias [24]. - **Logs**: Expected to fluctuate within a range [25]. Core View The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural commodities. Overall, the market is influenced by multiple factors such as supply and demand, policies, international trade, and weather. There are opportunities for short - term trading and mid - to long - term investment strategies in different commodities, but also risks associated with market fluctuations [4][7][9][11][12][13][16][19][20][21][23][24][25]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Oils and Fats - **View**: Concerns over China - Canada trade relations led to a significant increase in rapeseed oil prices. Overall, the upward trend of vegetable oils was supported by rising crude oil prices and positive fundamental expectations [1][6]. - **Logic**: Rapeseed oil was affected by Trump's tariff remarks, raising concerns about future rapeseed supply. The 2025/26 Canadian rapeseed production was a record high, but exports were expected to decrease. For soybeans, the US biodiesel policy provided emotional support. Malaysian palm oil production decreased in January 2026, while exports increased, with favorable export expectations [1][6]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias. Suggest considering buying on dips for hedging and a long - palm oil, short - rapeseed oil arbitrage strategy [4][7]. 2. Protein Meal - **View**: Pre - holiday stocking led to an increase in the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal [9]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the market sentiment was positive for US soybeans due to potential Chinese purchases and the US biodiesel policy, but the Brazilian soybean harvest and increased supply expectations were negative factors. Domestically, oil mills' soybean and soybean meal inventories were high, and the price of soybean meal was expected to be under pressure. The price of rapeseed meal was expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Outlook**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate [9][11]. 3. Corn/Starch - **View**: The market was influenced by both positive and negative factors and was expected to fluctuate [12]. - **Logic**: The supply was in a tight balance. The pre - holiday selling pressure was not large, and the feed enterprises' inventory could cover the Spring Festival. The deep - processing enterprises' inventory increased, but the demand was weak. The substitution of grains and policy grain auctions also affected the market [12]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate. The market was in a state with an upper limit and a lower limit [12]. 4. Hogs - **View**: The reduction in slaughter orders led to a decline in hog prices [13]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the supply pressure was increasing due to slow - paced January slaughter and the entry of second - fattening pigs. In the medium - term, the supply would be excessive until April 2026. In the long - term, the supply pressure was expected to ease after May 2026. The demand was weak, and the inventory was increasing [13]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward bias in the short - term. The industry was advised to consider short - selling hedging opportunities in the first half of the year. The hog cycle was expected to bottom out in the second half of 2026 [13]. 5. Natural Rubber - **View**: The price faced significant pressure from previous highs [16]. - **Logic**: After being driven up by synthetic rubber, the price of natural rubber fluctuated sideways. The supply was relatively abundant, and the demand was not strong, with a fast inventory build - up. However, it was supported by the positive sentiment in the chemical sector [16]. - **Outlook**: The fundamental variables were limited, and it was difficult to break through the previous high. It was recommended to buy on dips in the mid - term, and the short - term price was expected to fluctuate widely [16]. 6. Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The operating logic remained unchanged, and the price was expected to be strong [19]. - **Logic**: The market was trading on the expectation of a tight supply of butadiene in the first half of 2026. The rotation of commodity funds to the chemical sector also had a positive impact. The price of butadiene was rising due to limited supply and strong demand [19]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of butadiene was expected to improve, but there was short - term pressure. The mid - term trend was expected to be upward [19]. 7. Cotton - **View**: The cotton price fluctuated and adjusted, lacking new positive factors in the short - term [20]. - **Logic**: The cotton inspection was almost finished. The import of cotton and cotton yarn increased, and the downstream stocking increased. The commercial inventory was accumulating, but the overall apparent consumption was good. In the long - term, the supply might be tight, but there was short - term resistance [20]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with an upward bias. It was recommended to buy on dips [20]. 8. Sugar - **View**: There was support at the bottom, but the price was expected to fluctuate weakly [20]. - **Logic**: Globally, the sugar market was expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season. All major producing countries were expected to increase production, putting pressure on sugar prices. The current valuation was relatively low, and the price was expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [20]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward bias. It was recommended to short on rebounds [20]. 9. Pulp - **View**: The price of hardwood pulp continued to decline, and the pulp fundamentals were weak [21]. - **Logic**: The demand for pulp decreased as the downstream production declined. The demand feedback was more significant for hardwood pulp. The main positive factor was the rising US dollar price of pulp, while there were more negative factors such as seasonal demand weakness and abundant supply [21]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward bias [21][23]. 10. Offset Paper - **View**: There was no positive driving force, and the price was expected to be weak [24]. - **Logic**: The supply was abundant, and the high pulp cost squeezed profits. The market demand was weak, and the price increase was difficult to pass on. The industry's production might decrease, and the trading volume was expected to weaken [24]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward bias. The spot price was expected to be stable before the Spring Festival, and the price was expected to fluctuate within a range [24]. 11. Logs - **View**: The spot price in Lanshan increased, and the price was expected to be strong within a range [25]. - **Logic**: The log market first declined and then rebounded. The next - period overseas quotation was expected to increase. The delivery pressure decreased, and the spot supply in Jiangsu was tight. The price was expected to be strong in the short - term [25]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate within a range. The negative factors were digested, and the spot price increase might boost market sentiment [25]. 12. Commodity Index - **On January 26, 2026**: The comprehensive index, specialty index (including the 20 - commodity index, industrial product index, and PPI commodity index), and agricultural product index all showed increases. The agricultural product index had a daily increase of 0.54%, a 5 - day increase of 1.27%, a 1 - month increase of 2.37%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.40% [189][190].