1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The maintenance season for PX, PTA, and MEG is coming to an end, and demand negative feedback is gradually emerging [2][152]. - For PX, as of May 30, the Asian PX operating load was 72%, a month - on - month increase of 4.1 percentage points; the Chinese PX operating load was 82.1%, a month - on - month increase of 8.9 percentage points. There are still some device maintenance plans from June to July, especially concentrated in July, with tight supply - demand. The cost side is expected to continue to be under pressure, but the PX fundamentals are expected to be favorable, supporting price and PXN profit repair [152]. - For PTA, as of May 30, the PTA operating load was 76.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3 percentage points. In June, more PTA devices will restart, and there are still maintenance plans for some devices. There is an expectation of increased supply. The polyester operating load may show a slight downward trend in June. With increased supply and stable demand, the TA price faces upward pressure [152]. - For MEG, as of May 29, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 59.83% (a month - on - month decrease of 8.6%), and the operating load of synthetic gas - based ethylene glycol was 57.19% (a month - on - month decrease of 5.02%). The cost of coal - based production has decreased, and the subsequent production is expected to increase. With increased supply and stable demand, the EG price may show a weak and volatile trend [152]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 PX&PTA&MEG Price: Following Crude Oil Price Fluctuations - **Futures Prices**: From April 30 to May 30, 2025, PTA futures closing price increased by 266 yuan/ton (6.0%), MEG increased by 194 yuan/ton (4.7%), and PX increased by 406 yuan/ton (6.5%) [6]. - **PTA Basis and Spread**: The PTA basis and spread showed certain changes from April to May 2025, with the basis expanding significantly [15]. - **MEG Basis and Spread**: Similar to PTA, the MEG basis and spread also changed, and the basis expanded [12][15]. - **TA - EG Spread**: From April 30 to May 30, 2025, the TA - EG spread increased by 72 yuan/ton (25.8%) [18]. - **TA - PX Processing Spread**: From April 30 to May 30, 2025, the TA - PX * 0.656 spread remained unchanged [22]. - **Domestic and Overseas Ethylene Glycol Spread**: From April 30 to May 29, 2025, the price difference between domestic and overseas ethylene glycol changed, with the European - Chinese spread decreasing by 34.1% [25]. - **PX - Related Spreads**: The spreads between PX and crude oil, MX, and naphtha all changed from April to May 2025 [28]. 3.2 PX&PTA&MEG Supply Situation: Focus on Device Maintenance Implementation - **PX**: As of May 30, Asian and Chinese PX operating loads increased. There are still maintenance plans from June to August, especially in July, with a concentrated supply loss of 24.8 million tons [33][37][152]. - **PTA**: As of May 30, the PTA operating load decreased. In June, more devices will restart, and there are still some maintenance plans. New device production is expected to increase supply [35][152]. - **MEG**: As of May 29, the overall MEG operating load in mainland China decreased. There are maintenance and restart plans for domestic and overseas devices in different months [53][55][56][57]. 3.3 PX&PTA&MEG Import and Export Situation: High Global Trade Concerns - **PX**: In April 2025, China's PX imports decreased. The decrease was due to device maintenance, reduced downstream demand, and tariff concerns [63]. - **PTA**: In April 2025, China's PTA exports increased. The main export destinations include Turkey, Egypt, etc. [65]. - **MEG**: In April 2025, China's MEG imports decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The main import sources are Saudi Arabia, Canada, etc. [68]. - **Polyester Products**: In April 2025, China's polyester product exports reached a record high for the same period. Different polyester products showed different export trends [71]. 3.4 PX&PTA&MEG Inventory Situation: Rising Downstream Raw Material Inventory - **PTA**: PTA polyester factories' raw material inventory increased, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [91]. - **MEG**: As of May 26, the MEG port inventory in the East China main port area was about 68.7 million tons, showing a de - stocking trend [94]. 3.5 Polyester Demand Situation: Terminal Demand Underperforms Expectations - **Domestic Polyester Data**: In May 2025, compared with April, the polyester load decreased slightly, while the load of some related equipment increased. The inventory days and cash flow of some products changed [97]. - **Terminal Demand**: Terminal demand support is insufficient, and the inventory of polyester yarns has increased. The digestion of the weaving industry is weak, but the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City is expected to recover [98][101][103]. - **Textile and Garment Exports**: In April 2025, China's textile and garment exports increased year - on - year, with different trends for textiles and clothing [112]. - **Domestic Garment Retail**: In April 2025, the retail sales of domestic clothing - related products increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month [115]. 3.6 PX&PTA&MEG Position Situation - **PTA Futures Position**: On May 30, 2025, the PTA futures total position increased compared with April [126]. - **MEG Futures Position**: On May 30, 2025, the MEG futures total position increased compared with April [126]. - **PX Futures Position**: On May 30, 2025, the PX futures total position increased compared with April [126].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May 2025, the A - share market showed narrow - range oscillations. The market is mainly pricing the progress of fundamental recovery, and the capital market's ability to boost valuations is limited. In June, with previous reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts already implemented, direct positive factors for the stock market are expected to be limited, and the market will likely continue to oscillate. The style - switching observation window in 2025 may be in August [3]. - The large - cap indices have outperformed small - cap indices for three consecutive months since March. The basis discount of stock index futures is relatively large, mainly affected by market hedging demand and periodic dividend factors [3]. - The Q1 2025 financial reports of A - share listed companies show a mixed performance. Although there are signs of profit recovery, it remains to be seen whether companies can maintain their Q1 net profit levels under the background of the tariff war, and the accounts receivable ratio is rising. The valuation of A - shares is at a historical median, and future quasi - stabilization funds are expected to maintain the overall stability of A - share valuations [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Highlights of Stock Index Futures - **Market Oscillation**: In May, the A - share market had narrow - range oscillations. Wind All - A rose 2.39% monthly, CSI 1000 rose 1.28%, CSI 500 rose 0.7%, SSE 50 rose 1.73%, and SSE 300 rose 1.85%. The large - cap indices have outperformed small - cap indices for three consecutive months since March. In June, the stock market is expected to continue oscillating, and the style - switching window in 2025 may be in August [3]. - **Basis Discount**: The basis discount of stock index futures is relatively large. It mainly reflects market hedging demand, which depends on the existence of obvious Alpha returns. Dividend factors also have a significant impact on the basis discount. For example, the discount caused by dividends in CSI 1000 contracts ranges from 35 to 55 points [3]. - **Q1 Financial Reports**: After excluding finance, the year - on - year revenue growth rate of A - shares in Q1 was - 0.33%, and the net profit year - on - year was 3.4%. ROE was 6.34%, in the bottoming stage of a downward cycle. The performance of Q1 financial reports was mixed, indicating that the profitability of listed companies is still bottoming out, but there are signs of recovery [3]. 3.2 Market Conditions in May - **Index Performance**: The large - cap indices outperformed small - cap indices for three consecutive months. At the end of May, the yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond was 1.72%, the dynamic P/E ratio of Wind All - A was 18.93 times, and the equity risk premium declined slightly. The valuations of CSI 1000 and SSE 300 increased slightly compared to the previous month [15][17]. - **Volatility and Margin Funds**: The implied volatility of index options continued to decline, with 1000IV at 21.64% and 300IV at 15.96%. The margin balance remained unchanged for three consecutive weeks, with relatively little marginal capital. At the end of May, it was 1.792 trillion yuan [24]. - **Sector Performance**: In May, the banking, non - banking finance, and pharmaceutical biology sectors drove the index, while TMT and power equipment sectors performed weakly [25]. 3.3 Index and Option Indicators - **Index Performance and Basis Discount**: CSI 1000 rose 1.28% monthly, CSI 500 rose 0.7%, SSE 300 rose 1.85%, and SSE 50 rose 1.73%. The basis discount annualization of each index showed a divergent upward trend [35][41][46]. - **Option Indicators**: For CSI 1000, SSE 300, and SSE 50 options, historical volatility, volatility cones, position PCR, and trading PCR data are provided, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [48][57][65]. 3.4 Trading Slippage - Trading slippage data for IM, IC, IF, and IH are provided, including long - and short - position slippage, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [73][76][78]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June, the domestic urea market will face an expected increase in supply and a phased release of demand, with enterprise inventories likely to decline seasonally. However, the upside of urea prices is significantly limited, and the futures market is expected to show wide - range fluctuations [4]. - In the short term, the downside of the soda ash futures market is limited, but in the long term, the market will continue to face pressure. In June, production device maintenance or emergencies may still disrupt the market, and there is an expectation of a continued recovery in rigid demand [5]. - In June, the glass market will still face expectations of increased supply and weakened demand, with enterprise inventory pressure likely to further increase, and the market downturn is difficult to improve significantly [6][7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market and Raw Material Situation in the Industrial Chain - **Futures Prices**: As of May 30, the monthly decline of the urea main contract was 3.9%, the soda ash main contract was 11.58%, and the glass main contract was 9.83%. In May, the prices of related futures varieties were weak, with urea performing relatively strongly and soda ash the weakest [4][5][6][13][14]. - **Futures - related Varieties**: In May, the prices of related futures varieties trended weakly, with urea showing relative resilience and soda ash being the weakest [14]. - **Coal Prices**: In May, the prices of some coal varieties declined. For example, the monthly changes in the ex - works price of Qinhuangdao Youhun steam coal (5500) and the pit - mouth price of Shaanxi Yulin smoky coal (Q5500) were - 41 yuan/ton and - 51 yuan/ton respectively [15]. - **LNG Prices**: In May, the prices of some LNG products declined. For example, the monthly changes in the prices of Zhongmei Ordos, Ningxia Hanas, and Shaanxi Hancheng were - 320 yuan/ton, - 170 yuan/ton, and - 190 yuan/ton respectively [18]. - **Raw Salt Prices**: In May, the prices of raw salt in some regions declined slightly [19]. - **Synthetic Ammonia Prices**: In May, the price of Shandong synthetic ammonia decreased by 5.41% [20]. 3.2 Urea: Demand May Follow Up in June, but the Upside of Prices is Significantly Limited - **Spot Prices**: In May, the spot prices of urea showed mixed trends, with the mainstream regional price fluctuations ranging from - 40 to + 40 yuan/ton [23]. - **Supply**: In May, the urea supply fluctuated at a high level, with the daily output remaining above 200,000 tons. In June, if two new plants in Xinjiang are put into operation as planned, the supply level will further increase [4]. - **Demand**: In May, the follow - up of urea demand was relatively cautious. After the wheat harvest in the north, the demand for corn fertilizer and export demand will support the demand, but the price is difficult to rise significantly [4]. - **Inventory**: In May, the urea enterprise inventory first decreased and then increased, remaining at a high - level year - on - year. If the agricultural and export demand follows up smoothly in June, the enterprise inventory is expected to continue to transfer to ports and the middle and lower reaches [4]. - **Export**: In April, China's urea export volume was 0.23 million tons, with little impact on the domestic market. The total export volume from May to September is about 2 million tons, and the export volume is unlikely to change significantly later [4]. - **International Market**: In May, the international urea prices mostly declined, while China's FOB price increased significantly. At the end of May, India issued a new round of international urea tenders [67][69]. - **Related Products**: In May, most phosphate fertilizer prices rose, while potash fertilizer prices showed partial declines and partial increases [71]. 3.3 Soda Ash: The Downside of the Short - term Futures Market is Limited, but the Long - term Market Continues to Face Pressure - **Spot Prices**: In May, the spot prices of soda ash showed local weak declines [78]. - **Basis**: In May, the basis of soda ash (market average price) strengthened slightly [84]. - **Supply**: In May, the soda ash supply level decreased significantly, with the industry's start - up rate dropping to a year - on - year low, and the output at the end of May decreased by 8.48% compared to the end of April [90][95]. - **Inventory**: At the end of May, the soda ash enterprise inventory was 1.6243 million tons, a decrease of 2.86% compared to the end of April. In June, the enterprise inventory may be depleted, but there is a risk of anti - seasonal accumulation [5][100]. - **Export**: In April, China's soda ash export volume was 170,600 tons, a decrease of 12.21% compared to March. The export volume remains at a relatively high level in recent years, and the possibility of maintaining a high level in the future is still relatively high [5]. - **Profit**: In May, the production profits of ammonia - soda and combined - soda enterprises decreased compared to the same period last year [107]. 3.4 Glass: Demand in June Still Faces Challenges, and the Market Downturn is Difficult to Improve Temporarily - **Futures Prices**: In May, the glass futures prices continued the unilateral downward trend, with the main 09 contract breaking through the 1000 - yuan mark [6]. - **Spot Prices**: In May, the spot prices of glass mostly declined, with the mainstream 5mm large - plate market prices dropping by 20 - 120 yuan/ton throughout the month [6]. - **Supply**: In May, the glass production lines had alternating water - release and ignition, with supply first decreasing and then increasing. In June and July, there is an expectation of increased supply, but the implementation of production line commissioning needs attention [6]. - **Inventory**: In May, the glass enterprise inventory remained at a relatively high level in recent years, and in the later rainy season, the enterprise inventory pressure may continue to increase [6][7]. - **Demand**: The demand decline rate exceeds the glass production capacity decline rate. In June, after the rainy season starts, the glass demand will be restricted, and the enterprise inventory pressure may reappear [7].

Report Title - Lithium Carbonate Monthly Strategy Report, June 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the lithium carbonate market are still bearish, but the price fluctuation is intensified due to the game between bulls and bears. The lithium ore price continues to fall, with the lowest transaction price dropping to $600/ton. The weekly production of lithium carbonate increases by 487 tons to 16,580 tons, and the production is expected to increase in June. The cathode production data is average, but the cathode inventory is continuously digested. The cell production continues to slow down, but the terminal sales are still eye - catching with a high penetration rate. The weekly inventory decreases by 208 tons to 131,571 tons, with a slight increase in downstream inventory and a decrease in upstream and intermediate inventories [4]. Summary by Directory 1 Price - The price of the lithium carbonate main contract drops by 4.9%, and the prices of lithium ore, lithium salt, and most cathode materials decline. For example, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract drops from 66,960 yuan/ton to 59,800 yuan/ton, and the price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) drops from $779/ton to $676/ton [5][6] 2 Inventory - The weekly inventory decreases by 208 tons to 131,571 tons. The downstream inventory increases by 752 tons to 41,616 tons, the intermediate - link inventory decreases by 180 tons to 33,720 tons, and the upstream inventory decreases by 780 tons to 56,235 tons [5][12] 3 Theoretical Delivery Profit and Import - Export Profit - Relevant charts show the trends of lithium carbonate import profit, theoretical delivery profit, and lithium hydroxide export profit, etc., but specific profit data are not summarized in the text [18][19] 4 Supply 4.1 Lithium Resources - The production data of sample lithium mica mines and Chinese sample spodumene mines are provided. For example, on April 30, 2025, the total production of sample lithium mica mines (with a market share of about 65%) is 15,450 tons in lithium carbonate equivalent, and the production of Chinese sample spodumene mines is 4,900 tons in lithium carbonate equivalent [25] 4.2 Lithium Carbonate - The weekly production of lithium carbonate increases by 487 tons to 16,580 tons. Among them, the production from lithium spodumene increases by 20 tons to 7,519 tons, from lithium mica increases by 370 tons to 4,382 tons, from salt - lake lithium extraction increases by 67 tons to 2,907 tons, and from recycling lithium extraction increases by 30 tons to 1,772 tons [5][29] 4.3 Lithium Hydroxide - Charts show the production, capacity, and production by process and region of lithium hydroxide, but specific summarized data are not provided in the text [41][42] 4.4 Lithium Hexafluorophosphate - Charts present the production, export, and monthly operating rate of lithium hexafluorophosphate, as well as the theoretical production cost of solid - state lithium hexafluorophosphate produced by purchasing LiF externally, but specific summarized data are not provided in the text [44][45] 4.5 Waste Recycling - Charts show the recycling volume of waste lithium - ion batteries, including the total volume of ternary waste, lithium iron phosphate waste, and lithium cobalt oxide waste, but specific summarized data are not provided in the text [49][50] 5 Materials 5.1 Ternary Precursor - Charts show the profit, capacity, production, operating rate, and import - export volume of ternary precursors, but specific summarized data are not provided in the text [52][53] 5.2 Ternary Material - The weekly inventory of ternary materials decreases by 282 tons to 14,894 tons. Charts also show the production profit, capacity, production, operating rate, and import - export of ternary materials [5][55] 5.3 Lithium Iron Phosphate - The weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate decreases by 1,172 tons to 81,378 tons. Charts show the operating rate, capacity, production, cost, and export of lithium iron phosphate [5][57] 5.4 Other Materials - Charts show the capacity, production, and operating rate of lithium manganate and lithium cobalt oxide, but specific summarized data are not provided in the text [58][59] 6 Power Cells - The weekly production of power cells decreases by 19.9% to 19.23 GWh. Among them, the production of lithium - iron cells decreases by 25.5% to 12.28 GWh, and the production of ternary cells decreases by 7.8% to 6.95 GWh [5][61] 7 Terminal - New Energy Vehicles - From May 1 - 25, the retail volume of the national new - energy passenger vehicle market is 726,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 31% compared with the same period in May last year and an 11% increase compared with the same period last month. The retail penetration rate of the new - energy market is 53.5%. The cumulative retail volume this year is 4.05 million units, a year - on - year increase of 35% [5][70] 8 Supply - Demand Balance - Charts show the monthly supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate, lithium ore, lithium iron phosphate, and ternary precursors, but specific summarized data are not provided in the text [72][73] 9 Options - Charts show the historical volatility, historical volatility cone, and the put - call ratios of option positions and trading volumes related to lithium carbonate closing prices, but specific summarized data are not provided in the text [78][79]

光期研究 见微知著 铁合金策略月报 2025 年 0 6 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 锰 硅 供应：5月锰硅产量环比下降，但近两周产量止跌回升，宁夏地区产量仍维持低位。据铁合金在线，5月锰硅总产量约为77.89万吨，较 4月减少6.33万吨。其中硅锰6517产量约为69万吨，较4月减少4万吨左右。据钢联数据，截止5月30日当周，锰硅周产量为16.99万吨，周环比 增加2.86%，连续两周环比增加。内蒙古、广西、云南地区锰硅企业开工率环比增加，宁夏地区开工率仍环比下降。 需求：钢招持续进行，价格继续走弱，样本钢厂锰硅需求量当周值与钢厂锰硅库存均处历史同期偏低水平。近期钢招价格已经跌破 5700元/吨，6月主流钢招尚未启动，持续关注。终端需求表现相对偏弱，预计钢厂锰硅需求量当周值及钢厂锰硅库存偏低现状将维持较长 时间。 库存：样本企业库存环比下降，但绝对值依旧偏高。截止5月23日当周，63家样本企业库存20.11万吨，环比下降6000吨，但仍处于近 年来同期偏高水平，同比增加4.16万吨。 成本：港口锰矿库存逐 ...

硅策略月报 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S | 工业硅&多晶硅：供给分歧，跌幅不等 | | --- | | 总 | 结 | | --- | --- | | 1.供给：据百川，预计5月国内工业硅产量31.54万吨，同比下滑19.5%，环比下滑0.3%。月度开炉数下滑3台至215台，开炉率下滑 | | | 0.38%至7.25%。北方地区，新疆大厂月内新停14台矿热炉，甘肃、陕西、内蒙各停1台；西南地区，云南新停1台矿热炉，四川硅厂 | | | 点火开启15台。其他地区宁夏新开3台矿热炉，青海新开1台，福建及广西各停2台。 | | | 2.需求：5月多晶硅产量下滑1.2万吨至8.76万吨，同比下滑49.9%，环比下滑12%。5月DMC产量增加1.24万吨至17.3万吨，同比增 | | | 36.9%，环比增长7.7%。多晶硅P型月度下跌600元/吨至3.27万元/吨，N型月度下跌1700元/吨至3.68万元/吨。晶硅产业链进去全面 | | | 主动降库存阶段，自下而上接货意愿持续走低，导致各环节排产下滑。拉晶端采购多倾 ...

光期研究 镍 & 不 锈 钢 月 度 策 略 报 告 2 0 2 5 年 6 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 镍&不锈钢：压力渐显 p 2 4、观点：镍矿价格表现平稳，周内印尼镍矿配额消息扰动，实际SMM与ESDM就此类问题进行了询问，ESDM某官员表示，近两周暂时未对补充配额进行大批量的审 批。不锈钢产业链方面，原料端镍铁成交冷清，参考价格仍维持940元/镍点，成本端依旧有支撑，供应端国内和海外均有减产，但整体需求较为疲软，前期跟随镍价下 跌后或有修复，但需求将制约价格上方的阻力。新能源方面，硫酸镍供需双弱，据富宝统计，6月三元正极排产环比微降。一级镍方面，国内和LME库存均环比下降。 短期镍价快速下跌后或有修复，当前市场矛盾并不突出，主要是镍矿坚挺叠加一级镍去库利多，而不锈钢和新能源的需求疲软制约，但继续向上需要新驱动因素，短 期仍偏震荡运行。 p 3 目 录 1价格：月内沪镍跌3.7%，LME镍跌1.2%，各品种价格均有下跌 2.库存：周内LME库存减少1644吨至200142吨；沪镍库存减少113吨至2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The negative feedback on rubber demand may gradually emerge, and rubber prices will fluctuate and bottom out. In June, the rubber fundamentals will remain weak, with the expectation of strong supply and weak demand deepening. After the rubber price breaks through the support level, it may continue to fall to the previous low [2][104]. - For butadiene rubber, the cost of butadiene shows an oscillating pattern. The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber may continue to be in a loss state. The supply side will change little in June, but the demand from downstream and terminal automotive sectors is significantly weakening, and the impetus from exports is insufficient, leading to a decline in the price of butadiene rubber [104]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price - **Futures prices**: From April 30 to May 30, 2025, the RU, NR, and BR futures prices changed by -1150 yuan/ton, -420 yuan/ton, and +65 yuan/ton respectively [5]. - **Basis**: The RU, NR, and BR basis on May 30, 2025, were -55 yuan/ton, 134 yuan/ton, and 555 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of +100 yuan/ton, +32 yuan/ton, and -65 yuan/ton compared to April 30 [7]. - **Backwardation structure**: The rubber month - spread BACK structure deepened [9]. - **Price spreads**: The RU - NR spread on May 30, 2025, was 1833 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 559 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 536 yuan/ton [12]. - **Substitution relationship**: The price spread between natural rubber and synthetic rubber narrowed, weakening the substitution effect of synthetic rubber [17]. - **Processing profit**: The processing profit of Thai standard rubber on May 28, 2025, was -102.48 dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 3.08 dollars/ton and a year - on - year increase of 27.96 dollars/ton [19]. 3.2 Supply - **Domestic and foreign production areas**: In 2025, the phenological conditions in the global main production areas of natural rubber are good, and the tapping progress in domestic and foreign production areas is smooth. By June, the tapping in large - scale production areas such as Thailand will be in full swing, and the raw materials will increase significantly [23][104]. - **Production volume**: ANRPC predicted that the global natural rubber production in April 2025 would decrease by 1.4% to 767,000 tons, and the annual production would increase by 0.5% to 14.892 million tons [26]. - **Export volume**: The cumulative year - on - year export volume of major producing countries increased. For example, Thailand's total export volume of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first four months increased by 13.5% year - on - year, and the export volume to China increased by 38% year - on - year [37]. - **Import volume**: China's imports of natural and mixed rubber continued to rise year - on - year and month - on - month. In April 2025, the imports of natural and mixed rubber were 523,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.9% and a year - on - year increase of 41.6% [42]. - **Synthetic rubber supply**: The capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 69.3% on May 30, 2025. There were few restarting devices for butadiene rubber in June [45][51][52]. 3.3 Demand - **Domestic demand**: The domestic demand for natural rubber was stable with a slight increase. However, the downstream tire industry faced high inventory and weakening digestion ability, and the sales pressure of terminal automobile enterprises increased [56][104]. - **Export demand**: From January to April 2025, China's rubber tire exports increased year - on - year, but the export may weaken in the second half of the year [67]. - **Automobile industry**: The production and sales of automobiles continued to grow, but the demand for passenger cars and commercial vehicles was significantly differentiated [68][70]. 3.4 Inventory - **Exchange inventory**: As of May 30, 2025, the natural rubber warehouse receipt was 198,720 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,050 tons, and the exchange total inventory was 211,684 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,073 tons. The 20 - rubber warehouse receipt was 17,641 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 53,524 tons, and the exchange total inventory was 27,517 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 52,821 tons [76]. - **Social inventory**: As of May 25, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.308 million tons, the social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 790,000 tons, and the social inventory of light - colored rubber was 518,000 tons [78]. 3.5 Position - **RU position**: The total position of the RU main contract rebounded. As of May 30, 2025, the total position of natural rubber was 233,478 lots, a week - on - week increase of 74,078 lots [84][87]. - **NR and BR positions**: The NR position was 38,816 lots on May 30, 2025, a week - on - week increase of 12,612 lots; the BR position was 42,809 lots, a week - on - week increase of 1,690 lots [87]. 3.6 Options - **Natural rubber options**: Information on historical volatility, historical volatility cone, and put - call ratios of trading volume and open interest is provided [90][92]. - **Butadiene rubber options**: Information on historical volatility, historical volatility cone, and put - call ratios of trading volume and open interest is provided [98][100].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton provide limited driving force, and it is expected to operate slightly weaker within a range. In the international market, due to continuous macro - disturbances and limited fundamental driving forces, ICE cotton is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating performance. In the domestic market, terminal demand is a major factor affecting cotton prices, and the Zhengzhou cotton futures price is expected to operate slightly weaker within a range in the short term [4][11][12]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Supply - **Global Production Forecast**: The USDA May report predicts that the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season will be 25.651 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 710,000 tons or 2.7%. China's production is expected to be 6.314 million tons, a decrease of 653,000 tons or 9.4%, but the market believes the USDA underestimates it. Brazil's production is estimated at 3.974 million tons, a 7.4% increase; the US production is expected to be 3.157 million tons, a 0.6% increase; Australia's production is expected to be 893,000 tons, a 26.8% decrease [6][38]. - **US Drought Impact**: The area affected by drought in the US is gradually decreasing. As of May 20, 2025, the US drought - affected area accounted for 31.65% (D1 - D4 level), a month - on - month decrease of 1.60 percentage points [42][45]. - **US Planting Progress**: As of May 25, 2025, the US cotton planting progress was 52%, 4 percentage points lower than the five - year average [50]. - **China's Planting Area**: China's new cotton planting area in Xinjiang may increase slightly year - on - year, and China's cotton is still likely to have a good harvest this year [12]. - **China's Pima Cotton Sales**: As of May 22, 2025, China's cotton sales volume was 5.546 million tons, and the sales rate was 83.10%, both higher than the same period in previous years [56]. Demand - **Global Consumption Forecast**: The USDA May report predicts that the global cotton consumption in the 2025/26 season will be 25.708 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 304,000 tons or 1.2%. China's consumption is expected to be 7.947 million tons, a decrease of 109,000 tons [7][57]. - **US Retail Sales**: In April 2025, the US clothing and clothing accessories retail sales were $25.837 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 3.5% [60]. - **Overseas Textile Enterprises' Operating Rates**: As of May 30, 2025, Vietnam's textile enterprises' operating rate was 65%, a week - on - week decrease of 1 percentage point; India's was 75%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points; Pakistan's was 58.5%, remaining flat [63]. - **China's Retail Sales**: In April 2025, China's clothing, footwear, and textile products retail sales were 108.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%; from January to April, the cumulative retail sales were 493.9 billion yuan, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.1%. The growth rate was lower than that of social retail sales [7][66]. - **Yarn and Grey Cloth Operating Loads**: As of May 30, 2025, the yarn comprehensive operating load was 55.28%, a week - on - week increase of 0.48 percentage points; the pure - cotton yarn mill load was 54.08%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points. The short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 51.84%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.22 percentage points; the all - cotton grey cloth load was 49.52%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points [7][67][70]. Import and Export - **Global Import Forecast**: The global cotton import volume in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 9.759 million tons, an increase of 510,000 tons year - on - year. China's import volume is expected to be 1.524 million tons, an increase of 218,000 tons [8][71]. - **China's Textile and Clothing Exports**: In April 2025, China's textile yarn, fabric, and related product export value was $12.58 billion, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%; from January to April, the cumulative export value was $45.848 billion, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. The clothing and clothing accessories export value was $11.607 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.17%; from January to April, the cumulative export was $44.62 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5% [8][81]. - **China's Cotton Imports**: In April 2025, China imported 60,000 tons of cotton, at a low level in recent years [83]. - **China's Cotton Yarn Imports**: In April 2025, China imported 120,000 tons of cotton yarn, a slight month - on - month decrease [88]. Inventory - **US Retail and Wholesaler Inventories**: In March 2025, the US clothing and clothing accessories retail inventory was $58.329 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.15% and a year - on - year increase of 3.66%. The wholesaler inventory was $27.813 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.46% [101]. - **Yarn and Grey Cloth Inventories**: As of May 30, 2025, the yarn comprehensive inventory was 23.74 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.54 days; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 30.92 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.36 days [102]. - **Spinning Enterprises' Inventories**: As of May 30, 2025, the spinning enterprises' cotton inventory was 33.42 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.08 days; the cotton yarn inventory was 20.5 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.68 days [104]. - **Weaving Mills' Inventories**: As of May 30, 2025, the weaving mills' cotton yarn inventory was 8.02 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.78 days; the all - cotton grey cloth inventory was 33.1 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.62 days [105]. - **China's Commercial Cotton Inventory**: As of mid - May 2025, China's commercial cotton inventory was 3.834 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 318,600 tons, at a low level in recent years [9]. Options - **Cotton Option Volatility**: The historical volatility of cotton options decreased month - on - month [114].

Report Title - Aluminum Strategy Monthly Report, June 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In June, the supply and demand of alumina will both increase, with the overall复产 volume being higher, reversing the de - stocking trend. The overall fluctuation center will decline as costs decrease, and there are many uncertainties in the ore end, leading to a wider fluctuation range. The supply increase of electrolytic aluminum is limited, with both off - season demand pressure and structural resilience coexisting, and the sector differentiation is more obvious. New energy vehicles, UHV cables, and export windows are the main highlights. At the beginning of the month, the low - level de - stocking provides support for the market, but after a marginal surplus appears, it may enter a stocking phase, and the overall operating center will decline slightly. Attention should be paid to tariff negotiations and stocking performance, and be vigilant against the risk of excessive decline [3] Summary by Directory Price - In May, the alumina futures fluctuated higher, with the main contract closing at 2,962 yuan/ton on the 30th, a monthly increase of 8.5%. The Shanghai aluminum futures fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 20,070 yuan/ton on the 30th, a monthly increase of 0.8% [5] Spread - In May, the alumina spread widened from a premium of 171 yuan/ton to a premium of 315 yuan/ton, and the electrolytic aluminum spread changed from a discount of 20 yuan/ton to a premium of 110 yuan/ton [5] Supply - According to SMM, it is estimated that the operating capacity of domestic metallurgical - grade alumina in May will increase to 86.96 million tons, with a production of 7.35 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum in May remained stable at 43.91 million tons, with a production of 3.73 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.7%, and the aluminum - water ratio slightly dropped to 74% [3][5] Demand - The late - stage strength of cables combined with concentrated export rush led to a narrowing decline in the off - season start - up rate. In May, the average start - up rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises was 61.6%, a 0.6% decline compared to April. Among them, the start - up rate of aluminum sheets and strips decreased by 0.65% to 67.4%, the start - up rate of aluminum foils decreased by 1.66% to 70.99%, the start - up rate of aluminum profiles decreased by 2.13% to 56.75%, and the start - up rate of aluminum cables increased by 1.85% to 65.1% [3][5] Inventory - In terms of exchange inventories, in May, the alumina inventory decreased by 101,800 tons to 135,000 tons; the Shanghai aluminum inventory decreased by 37,300 tons to 141,300 tons; the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 42,500 tons to 375,000 tons. In terms of social inventories, the alumina inventory decreased by 30,000 tons to 25,000 tons, the aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 132,000 tons to 511,000 tons, and the aluminum rod inventory decreased by 22,700 tons to 128,300 tons [3][5]