gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 国投期货研究院 隔夜沪铝窄幅波动。铝市基本面矛盾依然有限,社库窄幅波动,表观需求并无亮眼表现。短期宏观 主导，宽松交易延续,贵金属和有色多品种创新高,沪铝跟涨为主,多头背靠40日线持有,关注前 高位置阻力。 【铸造铝合金】 昨日保太ADC12现货报价上调100元至21300元。 铸造铝行业库存和交易所仓单窄幅波动, 税务调整 令部分地区成本面临上调。宏观驱动下铸造铝合金高位跟涨乏力，与沪铝价差维持千元附近。 (氧化铝) (原油) 美方人员21日在委内瑞拉附近国际水域拦截油轮并登船检查，这是不到两周时间里，美国为施压委 内瑞拉而实施拦截的第三艘油轮。乌克兰无人机在黑海港口袭击了俄罗斯船只。她缘紧张关系的持 续升级加剧了市场对原油供应中断的忧虑,原油价格反弹。 【责金属】 隔夜贵金属延续强势。近期美国数据有利于降息的延续,地缘方面以色列和伊朗、美国和委内瑞拉 之间现紧张氛围。黄金周一突破前高刷新历史新高，贵金属短期趋势得到强化。国内资金是铂把多 头主力,外盘跟涨内盘为主,国内积极计价远月铂供不应求,推升内外价差,但内外盘合约月份不 匹配,价格可比 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ☆☆☆ (indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [2] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ (indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆ (indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [2] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ (indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [2] Report's Core View - The continuous escalation of tensions between the US and Venezuela has intensified market concerns about crude oil supply disruptions, causing the Brent crude oil price to exceed the $60/barrel mark, and driving up the sentiment of the domestic crude - oil related product market [4]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the current Middle East exports remain at a high level with abundant overall supply, but geopolitical situations may be the main variable; for low - sulfur fuel oil, the medium - term supply tends to be loose and the market is expected to be under pressure [5]. - In January 2026, the refinery production plan for asphalt is 1.06 million tons, showing significant declines both month - on - month and year - on - year. The market expects the long - term asphalt raw material supply to tighten due to the Venezuela situation, and the cost - side support drives the BU price to rise [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - On December 21, US personnel intercepted and inspected the third oil tanker in international waters near Venezuela. The escalating US - Venezuela tension increased market concerns about crude oil supply disruptions, and the Brent crude oil price exceeded $60/barrel. The domestic crude - oil related product market sentiment improved [4]. Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil: The Middle East export remains at a high level with abundant supply. Geopolitical situations such as the decline in Russia's shipping volume, the tense US - Venezuela relationship and potential new US sanctions on Russia may affect the subsequent high - sulfur raw materials. The market will likely see a tug - of - war between the medium - term supply loosening and short - term geopolitical fluctuations [5]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The medium - term supply tends to be loose. The supply of low - sulfur heavy raw materials in East Africa is expected to gradually recover, overseas key refineries will resume production one after another, and some RFCC units will enter the maintenance period, potentially increasing the marginal supply of low - sulfur fuel oil and putting pressure on the market [5]. Asphalt - In January 2026, the refinery production plan for asphalt is 1.06 million tons, with significant month - on - month and year - on - year declines. The demand in the northern market is flat, and the rigid demand in the eastern market is stable. Affected by the Venezuela situation, the market expects the long - term asphalt raw material supply to tighten, and the rebound of crude oil today provides strong cost - side support, driving the BU price to rise [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not Rated - Methanol: Not Rated - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a weak trading opportunity) - Plastic: ★★☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear bullish/bearish trend with the market moving in that direction) - PVC: Not Rated - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a balanced short - term trend with poor trading opportunities) - PX: Not Rated - PTA: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a balanced short - term trend with poor trading opportunities) - Ethylene Glycol: Not Rated - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a balanced short - term trend with poor trading opportunities) - Glass: Not Rated - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a balanced short - term trend with poor trading opportunities) - Bottle Chip: Not Rated - Propylene: Not Rated [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall chemical market shows a complex situation with different trends in various products. Some products are facing supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by factors such as raw material prices, production plans, and seasonal demand changes. [2][3][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures closed down. Supply is relatively abundant, and producers aim to stabilize the market. - Plastic and polypropylene futures fell sharply. For polyethylene, supply is high, inventory removal is slow, and demand is weak. For polypropylene, supply is still ample, and demand is expected to weaken. [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices were weak in the morning and rebounded in the afternoon. Supply - demand pressure may ease, but supply growth is expected. Consider long - spread arbitrage on dips in the medium term. - Styrene futures closed up, maintaining a low - range consolidation. Supply may increase more than demand, and pure benzene may have a weak impact. [3] Polyester - PX prices rose due to supply reduction expectations. PTA's upward drive comes from PX, but polyester may reduce production in the medium term. - Some ethylene glycol plants plan to shut down, but long - term pressure remains, and it is expected to oscillate in a low - range. [5] Short Fiber and Bottle Chip - Short fiber prices follow raw materials, and the long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively good. - Bottle chip demand is weakening, and the profit is still not ideal due to over - capacity. [6] Coal Chemicals - Methanol may oscillate weakly in the short term and has upward potential in the long term. - Urea supply exceeds demand, and the market may decline with weakening sentiment. [7] Chlor - Alkali - PVC prices fell. Supply pressure eases, but demand is low, and it may run at a low level. - Caustic soda oscillated. Supply pressure is high, and the industry will continue to compress profits. [8] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash oscillated weakly. Supply pressure is large, and demand may decline. Consider a long - glass short - soda ash strategy. - Glass prices weakened. Inventory pressure is high, and the industry needs to reduce capacity. [9]

◆ 国投期货 ● 国投期货 -- comex自银与净头寸_新版 " = " = 的金与净买寸_新版 NIMEX == 184 NYMEX把查与净关寸_新版 ted in Mark Comments of Controlled Collection Collection Collection Collection Collection Collection Collection Collection Compo == ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Upward Trend (Red Stars)**: None - **Downward Trend (Green Stars)**: None - **Bullish with Low Operability (One Star)**: Egg (★☆☆) [1][11] - **Bearish with Low Operability (One Star)**: None - **Bullish with Clear Trend and Market Movement (Two Stars)**: None - **Bearish with Clear Trend and Market Movement (Two Stars)**: None - **Bullish with Clear Trend and Investment Opportunity (Three Stars)**: None - **Bearish with Clear Trend and Investment Opportunity (Three Stars)**: None - **Balanced Trend with Low Operability (White Stars)**: All Others [1][11] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products including soybeans, soymeal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, hogs, and eggs, providing insights into price trends, influencing factors, and investment strategies [2][3][4] Summary by Product Soybeans - The main soybean contract recovered after a brief gap, with ongoing position transfers. Today, CGS plans to auction 21,000 tons of soybeans, with 13,000 tons sold at a base price of 3,950 yuan/ton and an average price of 4,027 yuan/ton, with premiums ranging from 0 - 160 yuan/ton. The premium auction supported the price, keeping it stable and strong. Monitor fundamentals and policies [2] Soybeans & Soymeal - South American weather has improved, with a 68% chance of La Nina transitioning to ENSO neutral in Q1 next year. The trading logic has shifted back to concerns about US soybean exports and expectations of a bumper South American harvest. New - season US soybean sales are at a five - year low, and futures prices have fallen to previous lows. In China, last week, soybean inventories at oil mills slightly increased, while soymeal inventories decreased. Monitor US soybean exports and the impact of La Nina in South America. Soymeal prices will follow US soybeans and fluctuate, pending South American weather changes [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The prices of soybean oil and palm oil rebounded from lows after position reductions, likely due to short - covering. Malaysian palm oil data shows improved exports and lower production, easing the bearish sentiment. US soybeans have stabilized after recent declines, and short - term weather risks in South American production areas are low. Monitor fundamentals [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed products have rebounded. After continuous price drops, there is a strong demand for short - covering. The focus has shifted to marginal supply - demand improvements. Coastal oil mills in China have zero rapeseed inventories, and Australian rapeseed has not started being crushed. The stability of China - Australia rapeseed trade is uncertain. In the medium term, global rapeseed supply exceeds demand, pressuring prices and potentially leading to a long bottom - forming period. The rapeseed strategy has changed from bearish to short - term neutral [6] Corn - Corn spot prices in Northeast China and northern ports are weak. Farmers' reluctance to sell has slightly decreased, and downstream buyers are more cautious about high - quality, high - priced grains. In North China, corn purchasing enthusiasm has cooled, with downstream buyers purchasing on demand. Prices are stable but weak. The number of remaining trucks at corn deep - processing enterprises has decreased. After the temporary supply - demand mismatch eased, upstream selling enthusiasm is rising, while downstream purchases have not increased significantly. Monitor Northeast selling progress and corn and wheat auctions. The Dalian corn futures 03 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [7] Hogs - Slaughter volume dropped rapidly after the Winter Solstice, and weekend hog spot prices fell sharply. The utilization rate of second - fattening pens has dropped to 20 - 30%. There may be a second - fattening restocking wave before the Spring Festival, which could support the current hog price. In the long term, historical hog cycles often have a double - bottom ("W") pattern. The October low was likely the first emotional bottom, and hog prices are likely to form a second bottom in H1 next year due to supply pressure and weak demand. The 03 contract is expected to remain weak [8] Eggs - Egg spot prices are in a low - level oscillation range, indicating an over - supplied market. The February contract corresponds to the post - Spring Festival off - season. Although the industry's inventory will decline month - on - month, the absolute inventory is still high, and demand is weak, so the February contract is expected to be weak. Contracts for April and May next year will see a continued month - on - month decline in supply and a return to normal demand, so prices are expected to be relatively strong. Consider 2 - 4 or 2 - 5 reverse spread strategies. The high - premium peak - season contracts are not yet investable [9]

2025-12-22 ⚫ 综述 上周市场整体呈现先跌后涨的震荡走势，绝大多数指数周度 收跌，其中科创 50 指数领跌，周度跌幅达 2.99%。板块方面，商 贸零售和非银金融等行业板块表现突出，周度涨幅分别为 6.65% 和 2.89%；电子和电力设备等板块走势偏弱，周度跌幅分别约为 3.28%和 3.12%。上周市场焦点集中于各国央行的政策表态。日本 央行如期加息 25 个基点，但由于市场对日本财政状况的担忧持 续，日元走弱的趋势仍未扭转。美国方面，通胀数据超预期降温， 同时非农就业数据保持韧性，有助于稳定市场对美股的预期。地 缘局势上，俄乌冲突进展支撑欧元保持相对强势。总体来看，市 场对美联储降息的预期与日本央行的加息举措共同作用下，美元 指数小幅走强。人民币汇率整体表现偏强，叠加市场对于国内的 政策预期，预计短期国内市场或延续震荡偏强格局，继续关注美 元流动性变化以及国内的政策信号。 ⚫ 期权市场 上周期权市场中，各品种金融期权隐波（IV）以下降为主仍保 持年内较低水平。其中创业板指 ETF 期权隐波降幅最深，达 8.20%。 当前科创 50 期权（IV=23%）和创业板指期权（IV=23%）隐波已回 落 ...

| 《八 国投期货 | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年12月22日 | | 棉花 | ★☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆★ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ななな | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | ☆☆☆ | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉大幅上涨，持仓从01合约向05转移，价格突破了前期的震荡区间。棉花现货主流销售基差总体持稳。 虽然今年新棉增产幅度较大,但商业库存同比基本持平,销售进度偏快,也给盘面带来较强的支撑。目前处于 淡季，但需求总体持稳。11月份棉花进口环比回升，2025年11月进口12万吨，同比增1.18万吨，环比增3.1万 吨；2025年1-11 ...

◆ 国投期货 ● 国投期货 -- comex自银与净头寸_新版 " = " = 的金与净买寸_新版 NIMEX == 184 NYMEX把查与净关寸_新版 ted in Mark Comments of Controlled Collection Collection Collection Collection Collection Collection Collection Collection Compo == ...

2025 年 12 月 22 日 范丽军 期货投资咨询证号：Z0018336 白银期权 01 合约平值期权隐波在 38%附近，02 合约隐波在 46%附近。一方面， 前期买入看涨期权出现大量的止盈平仓，压低隐波；另一方面， 01 合约 12 月 25 日 到期，临近到期期权价值每日流逝加快，卖期权仓位主动增加降低隐波。基于 01、 02 合约期权隐波近月低远月高的情况和近期贵金属的偏强行情，可以考虑买入白银期 权 01 合约的虚值看涨期权，交易 "末日轮行情"。如果 25 日，白银未大涨则损失全部 权利金；如果发生大涨则可能获得几倍收益。 近期欧洲白银租赁利率只有 2%左右，但 1 个月至 3 个月的租赁利率上升至 7%附 近。全球有 1000 亿美元被动管理资金跟踪彭博商品指数（BCOM）、有约 350 亿美 元跟踪标普高盛商品指数（S&P GSCI），二者将于 1 月 8 日降低金银权重。根据小 摩测算，大概在 1 月 8 日至 1 月 15 日之间，全球约有 50 亿美元的黄金卖盘和近 40 亿美元的白银卖盘。这两点与白银期权隐波近低远高也形成了呼应。指数调整期间继 续关注白银看涨期权建仓机会。 - 1 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ [1] - Pulp: ★☆★ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ (implied by the text) [1][3] - Apple: ★☆☆ [1] - Logs: ☆☆☆ [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and analyses for various soft commodities including cotton, pulp, sugar, apple, logs, natural rubber, 20 - rubber, and butadiene rubber. It analyzes supply, demand, inventory, and other factors for each commodity and gives corresponding investment suggestions [1][2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton prices rose significantly, with positions shifting from the 01 contract to the 05 contract, breaking through the previous trading range. Spot cotton sales basis remained stable [2] - Despite a large increase in new cotton production this year, commercial inventories are similar to last year, and the sales progress is fast, supporting the market. Demand is stable in the off - season [2] - In November 2025, cotton imports increased month - on - month. From January to November 2025, cumulative imports decreased year - on - year. As of December 18, domestic cotton processing increased year - on - year [2] - There are expectations of a decrease in Xinjiang's cotton planting area next year. Spinning mills' raw material demand is resilient, and their finished product inventories are low. The market is bullish, and industries can look for hedging opportunities [2] Sugar - Last week, US sugar prices were low. The production in Brazil's central - southern region in the second half of November was neutral, and the current crushing season is ending [3] - After the rainy season, less rainfall in Brazil's central - southern region may lead to a decline in sugarcane yield next year [3] - Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar prices were weak. In November, Guangxi's sugar production was slow, and imports decreased year - on - year [3] - In the short term, with a strong expectation of increased production in the Northern Hemisphere, sugar prices at home and abroad are expected to continue to decline. However, there may be production cuts in major producing countries next year [3] Apple - Apple futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices were stable, and cold - storage transactions were few. Merchants mainly packed their own goods, and the purchase of farmers' apples was low [4] - As of December 19, national cold - storage apple inventory decreased year - on - year, and the destocking volume also decreased significantly [4] - The market's trading logic has shifted to demand. Poor apple quality, high purchase prices, and strong reluctance to sell may affect destocking speed. With demand in the off - season, the market is bearish [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Natural rubber RU and 20 - rubber NR futures prices fluctuated, while butadiene rubber BR futures prices rose. Domestic natural rubber spot prices were stable, and synthetic rubber prices were stable to rising [5] - Global natural rubber supply is entering the decreasing production season. Some domestic production areas will stop tapping. Last week, the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate increased, while the upstream butadiene plant operating rate decreased [5] - China's tire operating rate decreased slightly last week, and Shandong tire enterprises' finished product inventories increased. Qingdao's natural rubber inventory increased, while China's butadiene rubber social inventory decreased [5] - In November, China's tire exports, butadiene rubber imports and exports, and butadiene imports had different changes. Overall, demand is weakening, and there are opportunities for cross - commodity arbitrage [5] Pulp - Pulp prices rose significantly today. As of December 18, 2025, China's mainstream pulp port inventory decreased, although it is still higher year - on - year [6] - In November, domestic pulp imports increased year - on - year. The new - year contracts, especially the 01 contract, may face less pressure from warehouse receipts. The narrowing price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp supports softwood pulp [6] - Paper mills' pulp purchases are mainly for essential needs, and the increase in base paper prices is weak. The pulp market is highly competitive. It is recommended to wait and see or make short - term operations [6] Logs - Log futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices were stable. Foreign quotes decreased, and domestic prices were weak. The short - term arrival volume will decrease [7] - As of December 19, the average daily出库 volume of 13 national ports decreased week - on - week, but the demand in the off - season is still acceptable. The national log inventory decreased, and the inventory pressure is relatively small [7] - Low inventory supports prices. It is recommended to wait and see [7]