1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The operation rating for CITIC Five-Style - Cycle is ☆☆★ [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - As of the week ending December 31, 2025, the weekly returns of Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond, and Nanhua Commodity Index were -0.31%, -0.20%, and -0.71% respectively [3] - In the public fund market, the performance of stock and bond strategies diverged in the past week. The short-term pure bond strategy performed strongly, the ordinary stock strategy index declined slightly, and most neutral strategy products rose. In the commodity market, the net value of precious metal ETFs corrected, with the adjustment of gold ETFs greater than that of silver. The non-ferrous and energy chemical ETFs continued to rise [3] - Among the CITIC five styles, the cyclical style rose last week, while the other styles declined. The style rotation chart shows that the relative strength of the stable and consumer styles has declined marginally recently, and the relative strength momentum of the five styles has decreased month-on-month [3] - In the public fund pool, the average performance of consumer and financial style funds outperformed the benchmark in the past week. From the trend of the fund style coefficient, the market's deviation from the consumer style has increased. This week, the congestion indicator has increased compared with last week, and the congestion of growth style funds has risen to the middle and high percentile range of history [3] - Among the Barra factors, the medium- and long-term momentum factor had a better performance in the past week, with a weekly excess return of 0.89%. The excess return of the profitability factor weakened, the winning rate of the liquidity and capital flow factors strengthened marginally, and the volatility factor weakened slightly during the week. This week, the cross-sectional rotation speed of the factors continued to decline, falling to the middle and low percentile range in the past year [3] - According to the latest scoring results of the style timing model, the growth style has recovered month-on-month this week, and the current signal favors the cyclical style. The return of the style timing strategy last week was -1.41%, and the excess return compared with the benchmark balanced allocation was -0.76% [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Recent Market Returns - The weekly, monthly, quarterly, and semi-annual returns of Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond (net), and Nanhua Commodity are presented in the report [5] - The weekly returns of major public fund strategy indices are also provided [5] - The establishment scale of public fund products in recent years is shown in the report [5] - The maximum drawdown of major public fund strategy indices in the past three months is presented [5] CITIC Style Index - The net value trend of the CITIC style index from December 1 to December 30, 2025, is shown, including the financial, cyclical, consumer, growth, and stable styles [7] - The relative rotation chart of the CITIC style index shows the relative strength and momentum of different styles in the past week, last week, past month, past three months, past six months, and past year [9] - The excess return performance of the fund style index in different time periods is presented [10] - The congestion of different fund styles is shown, with the data as the percentile in the past year [11] Barra Factor - The preference of Barra single-factor styles this week is presented, with the preference range from 0 to 1, where a value closer to 1 indicates a higher degree of preference [12] - The excess return performance of Barra single-factor style strategies in different time periods is shown [14] - The excess net value trend of Barra single-factor styles in the past year is presented [17]

Report Investment Ratings - Stock index: ☆☆☆ [1] - Treasury bond: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - As of the week ending December 31, the performance of the four major stock index futures was divergent, with IC and IH rising by 0.39% and 0.90% respectively, while IF and IM falling by 0.08% and 0.01% respectively. At the industry level, sectors such as petroleum and petrochemicals, national defense and military industry, and media performed relatively well, while sectors such as public utilities, food and beverages, and power equipment lagged behind. The current market risk appetite continues to recover driven by capital sentiment [1]. - From the perspective of high - frequency macro - fundamental factor scores, for stock index futures, the inflation indicator scored 8 points, the liquidity indicator scored 7 points, the valuation indicator scored 11 points, and the market sentiment indicator scored 9 points. For treasury bond futures, the inflation indicator scored 8 points, the liquidity indicator scored 9 points, and the market sentiment indicator scored 6 points [1]. - The net value of the financial derivatives quantitative CTA strategy did not change last week, and no trading signals were generated. In the long - term, PMI showed expectations and over - seasonality, with relatively large rebounds in IC and IM, and a slight pressure decline in treasury bond T. In the short - term, medium - and high - frequency real estate and consumption remained weak, the RMB continued to appreciate against the US dollar, the current capital situation remained relatively loose, and the short - term divergence recently narrowed. In terms of positions, risk appetite remained high, with a marginal increase compared to the previous week. IF and IC remained relatively strong. The overall comprehensive signal was above the neutral range. For treasury bonds, the capital situation remained loose at the beginning of the year, and the short - term recovered. The stock - bond seesaw effect was not significant, the bond market was insensitive to fundamental feedback, TF and T showed divergence in the position factor, and the comprehensive signal was in a neutral oscillation [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro - fundamental Medium - and High - Frequency Factor Scores - Different economic kinetic energy indicators showed different weekly changes, current values, historical quantiles, and correlations with stock and treasury bond indices. For example, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.96%, with a current value of 56.22 and a historical quantile of 0.12, and its correlations with stock and treasury bond indices were - 0.64 and - 0.90 respectively. Both stock index futures and treasury bond futures scored 8 points in this aspect [2]. 2. Inflation Indicators - Various inflation - related indicators had different weekly changes, current values, historical quantiles, and correlations with stock and treasury bond indices. For example, the price of 1 electrolytic copper increased by 1.54%, with a current value of 99,180.00 and a historical quantile of 0.99, and its correlations with stock and treasury bond indices were 0.62 and 0.65 respectively. Both stock index futures and treasury bond futures scored 8 points in this aspect [3]. 3. Liquidity - Different liquidity indicators showed different weekly changes, current values, historical quantiles, and correlations with stock and treasury bond indices. For example, DR007 decreased by 10.40%, with a current value of 1.43 and a historical quantile of 0.02, and its correlations with stock and treasury bond indices were - 0.46 and - 0.62 respectively. Stock index futures scored 7 points in this aspect [4]. 4. Index Valuation - Different index valuation indicators had different weekly changes, current values, historical quantiles, and correlations with stock indices. For example, the price - to - earnings ratio (PE) (TTM) increased by 0.41%, with a current value of 22.32 and a historical quantile of 0.97, and its correlation with stock indices was 0.98. Stock index futures scored 10 points in this aspect [5]. 5. Market Sentiment Stock Market Sentiment - Different stock market sentiment indicators showed different weekly changes, current values, historical quantiles, and correlations with stock indices. For example, the financing balance decreased by 0.02%, with a current value of 25,241.56 and a historical quantile of 0.99, and its correlation with stock indices was 0.88. Stock index futures scored 9 points in this aspect [6]. Bond Market Sentiment - Different bond market sentiment indicators had different weekly changes, current values, historical quantiles, and correlations with treasury bond indices. For example, the yield to maturity of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds increased by 1.39%, with a current value of 2.01 and a historical quantile of 0.33, and its correlation with treasury bond indices was - 0.96. Treasury bond futures scored 6 points in this aspect [7]. 6. Strategy Introduction - The variety pool includes stock index futures and treasury bond futures. The purpose is to use a multi - strategy model to optimize the allocation of contracts in the financial futures market to achieve stable net value growth. The short - term model focuses on market style, external factors, and capital situation in high - frequency financial data; the long - term model focuses on market expectations and low - frequency macro - economic data. The position is mainly synthesized by considering institutional long and short positions [17]. 7. Forecast Signals - As of last Friday, the short - term model, position indicator, long - term model, and comprehensive signals of different futures contracts (IF, IH, IC, IM, T, TF) were different. The comprehensive signal strength is weighted by three independent models (0 - 1). In principle, the top 2 contracts with a comprehensive signal strength greater than or equal to 0.6 are considered for long positions, and the bottom 2 contracts with a comprehensive signal strength less than or equal to 0.4 are considered for short positions. Due to the significant impact of position data on the roll - over before the delivery date, signals within 7 days before the delivery date are shielded [18]. 8. Treasury Bond Futures Cross - Variety Arbitrage Strategy Strategy Introduction - The cross - variety arbitrage strategy is mainly based on the signal resonance of the fundamental three - factor model and the trend regression model. The fundamental factors use the instantaneous forward - rate function proposed by Nelson and Siegel, which decomposes the interest - rate term structure into three parts: level, slope, and curvature. A PCA principal - component analysis, maximum - variance factor rotation method combined with logistic regression is used to construct the three - factor model, and the signals are divided into three types. In actual operation, a duration - neutral ratio of 1:1.8 is used to adjust the 10 - 5Y spread [21]. Market Quotes and Trading Signals - The trading signals of TF and T main contracts from December 25 to December 31, 2025, were different. For example, on December 30, the N - S model signal was 1, while the trend regression model signal was 0 [24].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - **Iron Ore**: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - **Coke**: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] Core Views - The steel market is in a weak demand situation, with the disk under short - term pressure and mainly in a range - bound pattern. The iron ore market has support in the short - term but lacks the impetus to break through upwards. The coke and coking coal markets face fundamental pressure despite some expectations of stimulus policies. The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets are recommended to go long on dips [2][3][6][7] Summary by Related Categories Steel - The steel disk continued to decline today. In the off - season, the apparent demand for thread steel decreased, production increased slightly, and inventory continued to decline. The demand for hot - rolled coil recovered, production increased, and inventory continued to fall, but pressure remains. Steel mill profits are marginally repaired, and the blast furnace production reduction trend has slowed significantly. Iron water production has stabilized and rebounded in the short - term. Downstream real estate investment decline continued to expand, and infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth rates continued to fall. Domestic demand is still weak, steel exports remain high, and the December PMI rose to 50.1, but its sustainability needs to be observed. The market sentiment is cautious, demand expectations are still weak, and the disk is under short - term pressure, mainly in a range - bound pattern [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore disk fluctuated today. On the supply side, the global shipment this period decreased month - on - month, slightly stronger than the same period last year, in line with seasonal change rules. Shipments from Australia and Brazil both declined, but they are still relatively high year - on - year. The domestic arrival volume increased this period, and it is expected to remain high in the short - term, with port inventory continuing to accumulate. On the demand side, terminal demand is weak in the off - season, and steel mill profitability has improved recently. Last week, iron water production increased month - on - month. Steel mills' imported ore inventory has increased continuously but is still at a low level, and there is still some rigid restocking demand in the future. The iron ore disk has short - term support, but the impetus to break through upwards is insufficient. The situation in Venezuela has a very limited impact on the direct supply and demand of iron ore, and future market trends need to be monitored. It is expected that iron ore will mainly fluctuate [3] Coke - The coke price fluctuated downward during the day. The fourth round of price cuts for coke has been fully implemented, coking profits are average, and daily production has slightly decreased. Coke inventory has increased slightly. Currently, downstream buyers are purchasing small quantities as needed, and traders' purchasing willingness is average. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream iron water production is at a seasonal low, but the demand for raw materials still has some resilience. Steel profits have slightly recovered, but the sentiment of squeezing raw material prices is still strong. The coke disk is at a premium, and after the price corrects the discount, it still faces certain fundamental pressure. However, the market has certain expectations for stimulus policies, and capital games on the disk have intensified [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price fluctuated downward during the day. The production of coking coal mines has slightly decreased. At the end of the year, some coal mines have reduced or stopped production due to safety production and the completion of annual production tasks. Spot auction transactions are okay, and the transaction price has increased slightly. Terminal inventory has increased slightly. The total coking coal inventory has increased slightly, and the production - end inventory has decreased slightly. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream iron water production is at a seasonal low, but the demand for raw materials still has some resilience. Steel profits have slightly recovered, but the sentiment of squeezing raw material prices is still strong. The coke disk is at a premium [5] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price fluctuated weakly during the day. Driven by the rebound of the disk, the spot price of manganese ore has increased. Currently, there are structural problems in the manganese ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile. The silicon manganese smelting end pursues the most cost - effective option and changes the manganese ore formula for the furnace. If the amount of oxidized ore decreases, the demand for cheaper semi - carbonate ore is likely to increase. The price of semi - carbonate manganese ore increased last week. On the demand side, iron water production decreased seasonally. The weekly silicon manganese production decreased slightly, and the silicon manganese inventory decreased slightly. It is recommended to go long on dips [6] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron price fluctuated downward during the day. The market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee has increased, and there are certain expectations of a decline in electricity costs and blue - carbon prices. On the demand side, iron water production has rebounded to a high - level range. Export demand has decreased to above 20,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has increased month - on - month, and the secondary demand has increased marginally. Overall demand still has some resilience. Silicon iron supply has decreased significantly, and inventory has decreased slightly. It is recommended to go long on dips [7]

| | | | 国投期货 Million | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2026年01月05日 | | 棉花 | ★☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | な☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | な☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | ☆☆☆ | | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 ★☆☆ | | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉有所上涨,盘中涨幅较大,午后有所跳水;现货销售一般,基差总体持稳。虽然新棉增产幅度较大,但商业库存同比 偏低,销售进度偏快,也给盘面带来较强的支撑。目前处于淡季，但需求总体持稳。截至12月25号，累计加工皮棉669.7万吨, 同比增加75.8万吨，较过去四年均值增加141.4万吨。国内商业库存同比偏低，截 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish trend but with limited operability on the trading surface [1] - Silver: ★☆★, with the white star suggesting a relatively balanced short - term multi/empty trend and poor operability [1] Core Viewpoints - The bullish logic of precious metals remains unchanged, but capital sentiment leads to sharp fluctuations. After exchanges at home and abroad adjust margin and trading restrictions, market volatility is still high. It is advisable to participate cautiously and maintain a long - position approach after volatility declines [1] - The supply side of palladium is brittle, and it is greatly dragged down by the decline in demand for automobile exhaust catalysts. Platinum benefits from high investment enthusiasm and the prospect of large - scale application of hydrogen energy. The fundamental expectation of palladium is weaker than that of platinum. The short - term market fluctuates too much, and the platinum - palladium market may enter a shock market after a wave - reduction adjustment [2] - In 2026, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates 2 - 3 times. At the beginning of the 15th Five - Year Plan in China, the expectations of monetary and fiscal policies are positive. The re - inflation trading is not fully carried out. Platinum should be allocated long - term on dips, and palladium is expected to follow platinum prices passively [2] Other Summaries Geopolitical Situation - The US launched a "three - hour lightning war" against Venezuela, codenamed "Absolute Determination". The Venezuelan vice - president is acting as the president. Trump threatened the acting president of Venezuela and said he "absolutely needs Greenland". The US lifted restrictions on the Caribbean airspace, and the EU issued a statement without condemning the US. Maduro is expected to "appear in court for the first time" in New York on January 5th [2] Economic Data and Events - The US will release a series of economic data such as non - farm payrolls this week. Last month's data showed an unexpected increase in the unemployment rate. Trump previously said he would announce the candidate for the Fed chairman in early January, which will greatly affect future interest - rate cut expectations and may bring large fluctuations [1]

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | | 2026年01月05日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 豆一 | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | な女女 | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | な女女 | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 標｜油 | ななな | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ★☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 薬油 | ★☆☆ | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ななな | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | なな☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国内大豆表现偏强,政策端竞价拍卖显示出溢价成交,且成交率高。国产大豆现货端收购价格也出现上调。进 口大豆方面南美新季大豆目前仍然是维持丰产预期,目前南美天气风险偏低,预计供应端的风险仍然偏低。国 内大豆进口成本下跌,盘面压榨毛利润表现较好。短期持续关注国产大 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: Not rated explicitly [1] - Styrene: Not rated explicitly [1] - Ethylene: Not rated explicitly [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: Not rated explicitly [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: Not rated explicitly [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Not rated explicitly [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: Not rated explicitly [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: Not rated explicitly [1] - Propylene: Not rated explicitly [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market shows complex and diversified trends, with different products affected by various factors such as supply - demand relationship, geopolitical events, and macro - news [2][3][5] - Each product has its own short - term and long - term price trends and investment opportunities, and investors need to make decisions based on specific product fundamentals [5][6][7] Grouped Summaries Olefins - Polyolefins - Olefin futures main contracts fluctuated and consolidated during the day. Multiple device changes had limited impact on overall supply, while demand was weak and market trading was light [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures main contracts declined during the day. For polyethylene, the trading atmosphere improved, but the supply - demand imbalance continued. For polypropylene, short - term demand was weak due to tightened funds and slow new orders [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene followed oil prices to fluctuate downward in the morning and rebounded in the afternoon. High imports and rising port inventories put pressure on the market. Consider long - term positive spreads in the mid - term [3] - Styrene futures main contract closed down. Downstream procurement was on - demand, and the spot trading atmosphere was poor after the holiday [3] Polyester - PX's weakness drove PTA prices down, and demand decline around the Spring Festival dragged down polyester raw materials. PTA's main driver was raw materials [5] - Ethylene glycol's production increase weakened the production - cut expectation. Although the arrival volume decline eased the inventory pressure, it was still under long - term pressure. Focus on short - term oil price fluctuations [5] - Short fiber enterprises had low inventories, but downstream demand was weak. The long - term supply - demand pattern was good. Bottle chip demand weakened, and it was mainly driven by cost [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol main contract opened high and closed low. Coastal and inland spot trends diverged. High short - term inventory might suppress the market, but the mid - term import reduction was expected to lead to a strong market [6] - Urea prices continued to rise. Supply recovery was less than expected, and short - term supply was tight. The market might weaken later [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC declined slightly. Supply increased, demand was low, and inventory pressure was high. The rebound height was expected to be limited [7] - Caustic soda dropped significantly. The industry was accumulating inventory, and the supply pressure was large. The rebound height was suppressed, and it was expected to find the bottom [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash inventory increased significantly after the holiday, and the futures price dropped. Supply increased, demand decreased, and long - term supply was expected to be in excess [8] - Glass showed a weak and fluctuating trend. Spot prices were low, production and sales were okay, and long - term capacity reduction was expected [8]

Report Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★★★ [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ [1] - Lead: ★★★ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★★★ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The copper market has a supply - demand slump, and it's recommended to wait and see or execute an option combination [2]. - The aluminum market is trending strongly, and the alumina market needs large - scale production cuts to stabilize. Cast aluminum alloy shows weak seasonal performance [3]. - The zinc market is expected to consolidate around 23,800 yuan, and it's in a rebound pattern [4]. - The lead market has limited rebound space and is expected to stay within 17,000 - 17,800 yuan [6]. - The nickel and stainless - steel market is dominated by policy sentiment, and a long - position strategy is recommended [7]. - For the tin market, continue to hold the call option with an execution price of 350,000 yuan [8]. - The lithium carbonate market has a slow de - stocking speed and a rising price center [9]. - The industrial silicon market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the polysilicon market is in a high - level shock [10][11]. Summary by Metal Copper - On the first trading day of 2026, Shanghai copper rose with increased positions, breaking 100,000 yuan. The SMM spot copper price was adjusted to 100,575 yuan, and the social inventory increased by 1.87 million tons to 25.76 million tons. The copper market has a weak supply - demand situation. Consider an option combination of selling a call at 104,000 yuan and buying a put at 98,000 yuan [2]. Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum rose, with increased spot discounts and a 2.4 - million - ton increase in social inventory. The aluminum market has a bullish trend, and it's advisable to go long based on the 40 - day line. The casting aluminum alloy has a weak seasonal performance. The alumina market is in significant surplus, and short - term price decline slows down, while mid - term stabilization awaits large - scale production cuts [3]. Zinc - In January, the TC of zinc concentrate decreased, and domestic smelters continued maintenance. After the holiday, downstream consumption recovered, driving the price up. The spot market is chaotic, and the price is expected to consolidate around 23,800 yuan, with a rebound pressure range of 24,000 - 24,200 yuan/ton [4]. Lead - The supply pressure of lead is small, and post - holiday consumption is recovering. However, the profit of recycled lead is improving, and overseas surplus is affecting the domestic market. The price is expected to stay between 17,000 - 17,800 yuan [6]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel is strong, with active trading. Upstream price rebounds, and social inventory of stainless steel decreases. A long - position strategy is recommended [7]. Tin - On the first trading day, Shanghai tin rebounded. Pay attention to the production of low - grade mines and the seasonal risk of Indonesian tin exports. Continue to hold the call option of the 2602 contract with an execution price of 350,000 yuan [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is strong, with limited supply from upstream and some demand from downstream. The total inventory decreases, but the de - stocking speed slows down, and the price center rises [9]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures declined slightly. Supply is expected to decrease by about 2 million tons in January, and demand from organic silicon and polysilicon is weakening. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [10]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon spot price increase drives the futures up. The price increase is driven by the cost of silver auxiliary materials, but the terminal demand is weak, and the market is in a stockpiling state, with high - level shocks in the short term [11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (more bullish, with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently) [2] - Fuel oil: ★★★ (more bullish, with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently) [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ (more bullish, with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently) [2] - Asphalt: ★☆★ (biased towards bullish, with a driving force for upward trend but limited operability on the market) [2] Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical premium caused by the US-Venezuela conflict is limited and difficult to change the downward trend of the oil price center. The current crude oil market is in a stage of inventory accumulation with oversupply, and the oil price will still be dominated by the supply-demand pattern and maintain a downward trend [3] - Fuel oil follows the weakening of crude oil on the cost side, but the Venezuelan crude oil supply disruption may indirectly support the high-sulfur fuel oil market, and its crack spread may perform relatively strongly; low-sulfur fuel oil continues to face the pressure of loose supply and is expected to remain weak [4] - The asphalt futures strengthened against the trend, mainly supported by the expectation of tight raw material supply. The continuous shortage of Venezuelan crude oil supply and the increase in alternative raw material costs have pushed up the expected production cost of asphalt, which is the core driver of the current price increase [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - After the holiday, the external crude oil futures did not rise due to the escalation of the US-Venezuela conflict, and the domestic SC crude oil futures fell by more than 3%. The geopolitical conflict has limited and unsustainable impact on oil prices, and the current market is in an inventory accumulation stage [3] - In 2025, Venezuela's oil production accounted for only about 0.94%-0.96% of the global total, and its potential supply interruption is not enough to drive oil prices up in the long term [3] - The US, IEA, and OPEC all predict that there will be significant inventory accumulation pressure in the global crude oil market in January 2026. The US may take over Venezuelan oil resources, and if sanctions are relaxed later, Venezuelan production may even increase [3] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - During the holiday, the US military strike on Venezuela led to a short-term halt in its energy exports including oil and high-sulfur fuel oil. However, due to the relatively limited export volume, it is difficult to change the current oversupply situation in the crude oil market, and fuel oil followed the weakening of crude oil [4] - The interruption of Venezuelan crude oil supply may affect the asphalt production of domestic refineries, and some refineries may increase the procurement of alternative raw materials such as fuel oil, which will indirectly support the high-sulfur fuel oil market, and its crack spread may perform relatively strongly [4] - Low-sulfur fuel oil continues to face the pressure of loose supply due to the recovery of overseas supply and is expected to remain weak [4] Asphalt - The asphalt futures strengthened against the trend under the background of the escalation of the Venezuelan situation, mainly supported by the expectation of tight raw material supply [5] - Venezuelan heavy crude oil (Merey oil) is an important raw material source for domestic refineries. Since December 2025, the US seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers has led to a sharp decrease in the shipment volume to China, which is expected to significantly impact the domestic asphalt raw material supply in February and later [5] - If domestic refineries turn to Iranian heavy oil or Canadian TMX crude oil as substitutes, the cost will be significantly higher than that of Venezuelan crude oil. The continuous shortage of Venezuelan crude oil supply and the increase in alternative raw material costs have pushed up the expected production cost of asphalt, which is the core driver of the current price increase [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - From December 29, 2025, to January 2, 2026, global geopolitical risks increased due to the US military strike on Venezuela. Globally, the stock market was divided, the bond market and commodities declined, and in terms of dollar - denominated assets, bonds > stocks > commodities. In China, the stock market was divided, the bond market oscillated, commodities declined, and stocks > bonds > commodities. Short - term attention should be paid to changes in geopolitical risk factors [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Major Asset Overall Performance: Stock Market Divided, Bond Market and Commodities Declined - **Global Stock Market Overview**: Global major stock markets showed mixed performance. The US stock market performed poorly, and emerging markets outperformed developed markets. The VIX index stabilized at a low level weekly. For example, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 2.30%, while the MSCI Developed Markets Index fell 0.63% [8][12] - **Global Bond Market Overview**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 5BP to 4.19%. The bond market declined weekly, and globally, high - yield bonds > government bonds > credit bonds [12] - **Global Foreign Exchange Market Overview**: The US dollar index rose 0.43% weekly. Major non - US currencies generally depreciated against the US dollar, while the RMB exchange rate was oscillating strongly [14] - **Global Commodity Market Overview**: Geopolitical factors did not significantly support international oil prices, which oscillated weekly. International gold and silver prices dropped significantly due to increased margin requirements. Most agricultural product prices fell, while non - ferrous metal prices rose [14] 3.2 Domestic Major Asset Performance: Stock Market Divided, Bond Market Oscillating, Commodities Declined - **Domestic Stock Market Overview**: A - share major broad - based indices mostly declined, but the trading volume increased. Large - cap blue - chip stocks were relatively resistant to decline. The petroleum and petrochemical, and military industries led the gains, while public utilities and food and beverage sectors performed poorly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.13% [18][20] - **Domestic Bond Market Overview**: The central bank's net injection in the open - market operations was 117.1 billion yuan, and the money market was relatively stable. The bond market oscillated weakly weekly, with corporate bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [21] - **Domestic Commodity Market Overview**: The domestic commodity market declined overall, with precious metals performing poorly [21] 3.3 Major Asset Price Outlook - Geopolitical risk factors have increased in the short term, and attention should be paid to their impact on major asset prices [23]