投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 | | | | 海外商品涨跌幅 | | | | | | 塑料 | | 7249 | -0.17% | -0.73% | -0.17% | 1.38% | -11.36% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 今年涨跌幅 | | | PP | 7044 | -0.37% | -0.83% | -0.37% | -0.75% | -5.79% | | 能源 | NYMEX WTI原油 | 64.97 | -0.15% | -0.15% | | 2.85% | -9.60% | | | PVC | 4821 | -1.39% | -1.99% | -1.39% | -2.82% | -8.87% | | | ICE布油 | 66.63 | 0.44% | 0.44% | | 1.22% | -10.9 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating weakly [5] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [6] - **Corn and Starch**: Oscillating [6] - **Pigs**: Oscillating [9] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [10] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [12] - **Cotton**: Oscillating [13] - **Sugar**: Oscillating (short - term), Oscillating weakly (long - term) [15] - **Pulp**: Oscillating weakly [16] - **Logs**: Oscillating weakly [17] 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural product market is generally in a state of oscillation. Each variety is affected by different factors, including supply, demand, weather, and policy. For example, the oils and fats market may continue to oscillate weakly due to factors such as good soybean growth and the palm oil production season, while protein meal is expected to oscillate in the short - term with cost support [5][6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: The U.S. soybean planting area is lower than expected, but the current growth is good. - **Industry Information**: As of June 29, 2025, the U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate was 66%, lower than the market expectation of 67%. The 2025 U.S. soybean planting area was 83.38 million acres, lower than the expected 83.655 million acres. As of June 1, 2025, the U.S. old - crop soybean inventory was 1.01 billion bushels, up 4% year - on - year [5]. - **Logic**: The U.S. soybean planting area being slightly lower than expected and the quarterly inventory being higher than expected offset each other. The macro - environment has uncertainties, and the industrial side shows that U.S. soybean growth is good, and the palm oil production pressure may decrease marginally in June. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the oils and fats may continue to oscillate weakly, but factors such as trade uncertainties and the expected increase in overseas biodiesel consumption of oils may support prices [5]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **View**: The strong Brazilian soybean premium provides cost support for the Dalian soybean meal futures. - **Industry Information**: On July 1, 2025, the international soybean trade premium quotes showed different changes. The average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing was 41.63 yuan/ton, up 3.71% week - on - week [6]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the U.S. soybean area is in line with expectations, but the quarterly inventory is increased. Brazil's soybean exports are strong, and China mainly purchases Brazilian soybeans. Domestically, soybean arrivals increase, oil mills' inventory accumulates, and downstream replenishment is insufficient, but cost support exists in the long - run [6]. - **Outlook**: The U.S. soybean is expected to oscillate in a range. Domestic soybean meal inventory continues to accumulate. Oil mills can sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or price points on dips [6]. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - **View**: The imported corn auction was sold at a premium, and the spot price remains firm. - **Industry Information**: The Jinzhou Port FOB price was 2400 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, and the domestic corn average price was 2438 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton [7]. - **Logic**: The domestic corn price is mainly rising. The trade volume is reluctant to sell, and the demand is squeezed by wheat. The imported corn auction has limited volume and was sold at a premium. New - crop corn growth is affected by weather [8]. - **Outlook**: Driven by the supply - demand gap expectation, the price may rise, but there may be callbacks due to potential negative impacts of policy - grain auctions [8]. 3.1.4 Pigs - **View**: Farmers are still reluctant to sell, and the impact of subsequent rainfall needs attention. - **Industry Information**: On July 1, 2025, the Henan live pig (foreign ternary) price was 15.15 yuan/kg, up 1% month - on - month, and the live pig futures closing price was 13,865 yuan/ton, down 0.04% month - on - month [9]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the average slaughter weight is decreasing, but farmers still have the intention to hold back. In the medium - term, the number of new - born piglets is increasing, and in the long - term, the production capacity is still high. The demand is weak, and the inventory is partially transferred [9]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate. Although the average slaughter weight is decreasing, farmers' intention to hold back still exists, and it is currently the off - season for consumption [9]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: The rubber price rose in the afternoon following the overall commodity trend. - **Industry Information**: The prices of various rubber products in Qingdao Free Trade Zone and Thailand's raw material market showed different changes. Vietnam's natural rubber exports in the first five months of 2025 decreased by 18% year - on - year [10][11]. - **Logic**: The overall commodity market rose, and the rubber price followed. The raw material price is firm, providing bottom - support. The supply is expected to increase, but the demand is expected to decrease [11]. - **Outlook**: Before new fundamental guidance emerges, it may continue to fluctuate with the overall commodity market [11]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures price followed the overall commodity trend, first falling and then rising. - **Industry Information**: The spot prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene showed different changes [12]. - **Logic**: The macro - sentiment is relatively warm, and the futures price is stable and oscillating. The fundamental trading is not significant, and it mainly follows the trend of natural rubber and the overall commodity market. The overall operating level has declined, and the inventory has slightly increased [12]. - **Outlook**: The external situation may be temporarily controllable, and the correction may not be over. Attention should be paid to the previous low support [12]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **View**: The upward trend of Zhengzhou cotton futures has slowed down due to the upward revision of the U.S. cotton planting area. - **Industry Information**: As of July 1, 2025, the number of registered warrants in the 24/25 season was 10,211, and the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract closed at 13,745 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton [2][13]. - **Logic**: In the new - crop season, the production of China and other major cotton - producing countries is expected to increase. The U.S. cotton planting area is revised upward. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a relatively low level, providing support [13]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate between 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton [14]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **View**: Due to the lack of positive factors, the sugar price continues to lack upward momentum. - **Industry Information**: As of July 1, 2025, the Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract closed at 5775 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton [15]. - **Logic**: Domestically, the 24/25 sugar - making season has ended, and the sales rate is high, but there is an expectation of concentrated imported sugar arrivals. Internationally, the new - crop production of major sugar - producing countries is expected to increase [15]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, the sugar price is expected to oscillate weakly due to the expected supply surplus. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate [15]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **View**: The fundamentals remain weak, and the pulp futures maintain a weak operation. - **Industry Information**: The prices of various pulp products in Shandong showed different changes [16]. - **Logic**: The pulp import volume remains high, the price is in a downward trend, the demand is in the off - season, and the domestic inventory is high. The pulp price is under pressure to fall, but it is risky to short at the current low level [16]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate due to weak supply - demand and potential positive impacts from changes in delivery rules [16]. 3.1.10 Logs - **View**: The market has returned to fundamental - driven, and the far - month contracts oscillate weakly. - **Logic**: The log market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The inventory has decreased due to reduced arrivals, but it is the consumption off - season. The short - term fundamentals are in a weak balance, and the far - month contracts are expected to be weak due to the weak fundamentals [17][18]. - **Outlook**: The far - month contracts are expected to oscillate weakly [17]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report also lists the sections for data monitoring of various varieties such as oils and fats, protein meal, corn, starch, pigs, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but no specific data content is provided in the given text [20][39][52]. 3.3 Rating Standards - The report provides rating standards including "strong", "oscillating strongly", "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", and "weak", with corresponding explanations of expected price changes and the time period being the next 2 - 12 weeks [169].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation", and the ratings for various varieties are also mainly "oscillation" [8][10][11] 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical conflict disturbances have weakened, and the focus of black commodity trading has shifted to the domestic market. During the off - season, hot metal production has increased. Against the backdrop of low valuations, furnace materials have rebounded from oversold levels. However, the construction and manufacturing industries in China have entered the off - season, and steel demand and inventory are gradually under pressure. Tangshan's emission reduction has a short - term impact on supply, with limited overall influence, and prices have re - entered an oscillatory state [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Overall Market Situation - Tangshan's stricter emission reduction requirements have led to a weakening of furnace materials and a strengthening of steel prices. The impact on hot metal needs continuous observation. The market is cautious, especially as steel is in the off - season with signs of weakening demand, so the unilateral increase in prices is small. Coking coal and coke have declined more than iron ore due to the resumption of coal mines and emission reduction [1][2] 3.2 Iron Ore - Supply: This week, the shipments from overseas mines and the arrivals at 45 ports have decreased month - on - month, with less pressure on the supply side. Although there is an expectation of a small - scale inventory build - up in the coming weeks due to previous shipments from overseas mines, the amplitude is limited [3][10][11] - Demand: Steel mills' profitability remains high, and there is no driving force for hot metal to reduce production due to profit reasons. However, Tangshan's emission reduction may affect short - term ore demand, but its impact on medium - and long - term iron ore demand is small [3][10][11] 3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - Coking Coal: Affected by the resumption of coal mines, the reduction of the long - term contract price of Mongolian coal in the third quarter, and Tangshan's emission reduction news, the market was weak. The supply recovery is slow, demand is expected to decline, and there is still pressure on mine - end inventory reduction, with limited upward price drivers [3][14] - Coke: The spot market sentiment has improved, and inventory has been further reduced. However, affected by supply - demand rumors, the market oscillated weakly. Supply has decreased slightly, and there is a risk of a decline in short - term hot metal production, so the upward price space is limited [13] 3.4 Alloys - Manganese Silicon: The price increase of port ore is limited. Supply is expected to increase, and demand may decrease. The supply - demand gap is narrowing, and prices are expected to oscillate [4][7] - Ferrosilicon: The current supply - demand relationship is healthy, but there is a possibility of supply - demand gap narrowing in the future. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [7] 3.5 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: Off - season demand is declining, supply pressure exists, and the market is affected by sentiment, with prices expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment changes, cold - repair conditions, and demand sustainability [7][15] - Soda Ash: The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the price center will decline [7][15][17] 3.6 Steel - Affected by Tangshan's emission reduction news, steel prices rose at the end of the session. Supply has positive factors, but demand is under off - season pressure. Overall supply and demand have weakened month - on - month, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [10]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The report maintains a bullish view on gold and a cautiously bullish view on silver in the second half of the year [1][3] - If the non - farm payroll data and tariff progress do not deteriorate significantly, gold may need to consolidate within a range this month; if they deteriorate significantly, the gold price is expected to rise with fluctuations, and silver is expected to follow the gold price in the short term [1][3] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key Information - In June, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 49, with an expected value of 48.8 and a previous value of 48.5; the output index was 50.3, the previous value was 45.4; the manufacturing price - paid index was 69.7, the expected value was 69, the previous value was 69.4; the employment index was 45, the expected value was 47, the previous value was 46.8; the inventory index was 49.2, the previous value was 46.7; the new orders index was 46.4, the previous value was 47.6 [2] - Fed Chairman Powell stated that most Fed members expect interest rate cuts later this year, the labor market is gradually cooling, it's uncertain if a July rate cut is too early, no meeting is excluded and it depends on data, the Fed's current monetary policy is moderately restrictive, and the economy and labor market are stable [2] - In May, the US JOLTs job openings were 7.769 million, with an expected value of 7.3 million and a revised previous value from 7.391 million to 7.395 million [2] - In May, the US construction spending decreased by 0.3% month - on - month, with an expected decrease of 0.2% and a revised previous value from a decrease of 0.4% to a decrease of 0.2% [2] Price Logic - The US dollar reached a new low, and the US Treasury yields declined simultaneously. Most commodities rebounded, and precious metals showed a significant upward movement [1][3] - The US June ISM manufacturing PMI improved slightly. Job openings indicate that the employment market demand remains resilient. The Fed Chairman's remarks became more dovish, and the expectation of interest rate cuts within the year increased slightly. Fed Watch shows three rate cuts within the year, with the first cut still expected in September [1][3] Outlook - The weekly COMEX gold price is expected to be in the range of [3250, 3450], and the weekly COMEX silver price is expected to be in the range of [35, 38] [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The sentiment in the stock market is warm, and the sentiment in the bond market has stabilized. For stock index futures, policies are starting to focus on manufacturing profits. For stock index options, a covered defense strategy is recommended. For treasury bond futures, the bond market sentiment has shown signs of stabilization [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views Stock Index Futures - **View**: Policies are starting to focus on manufacturing profits. New hot themes are emerging, with the Hengke Innovation Pharmaceutical Index excluding CXO companies and photovoltaic glass promoting production cuts, accelerating capacity clearance and driving up the pharmaceutical and non - ferrous industries. The Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting emphasizes anti - "involution" in some manufacturing industries, which may boost the inflation chain. In the context of mid - year report announcements, attention to pre - announced performance increases may be strengthened. In a warm - sentiment environment, long positions should be maintained, and IM long positions are recommended [1][5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Allocate IM long positions [5]. - **Market Outlook**: Oscillating with an upward bias [5]. Stock Index Options - **View**: A covered defense strategy is recommended. The trading volume in the options market has been continuously declining, and the trading liquidity is lower than expected. In a low - liquidity derivatives market, sentiment indicators show synchronicity rather than guidance, and the average implied volatility of each option variety has decreased by 0.52%. Given the low liquidity and volatility and the ineffective guidance of sentiment indicators, and the resistance level above the index, a covered defense strategy is advisable [1][5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Covered defense [5]. - **Market Outlook**: Oscillating [5]. Treasury Bond Futures - **View**: The bond market sentiment has stabilized. After recent adjustments, the bond market sentiment stabilized yesterday. The central bank continued net capital injection, with a net injection of 305.8 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations. The overall funding situation has eased, and the DR007 rate has slightly declined. The policy announced by the National Development and Reform Commission was in line with expectations, and the stock - bond seesaw effect has weakened. The market may be pre - gambling on June PMI data and the central bank's bond - buying restart. However, caution should still be exercised, and attention should be paid to June PMI data and central bank operations [2][5][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Trend strategy: Oscillating. Hedging strategy: Pay attention to short - position hedging at low basis levels. Basis strategy: Appropriately pay attention to basis widening. Curve strategy: Steepening the yield curve in the medium - term has higher odds [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Oscillating [5][6]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - China's official manufacturing PMI for June was 49.7, up from the previous value of 49.5. The final value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI for June was 52.9, higher than the previous and predicted values of 52. The US unemployment rate and non - farm payrolls for June are yet to be announced [7]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Domestic Macroeconomics**: From January to May, the added value of large - scale electronic information manufacturing enterprises increased by 11.1% year - on - year, 4.8 and 1.6 percentage points higher than the overall industry and high - tech manufacturing respectively. In May, the added value increased by 10.2% year - on - year. Mobile phone production was 570 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%, with smartphone production at 450 million units, a 2.1% decrease. Microcomputer equipment production was 130 million units, a 5.5% increase, and integrated circuit production was 193.5 billion pieces, a 6.8% increase [7]. - **Pharmaceutical Industry**: The National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission issued measures to support the high - quality development of innovative drugs, including supporting the use of healthcare insurance data for innovative drug R & D, strengthening information sharing among medical, healthcare insurance, and pharmaceutical sectors, and providing necessary healthcare insurance data services for innovative drug R & D on the premise of data security and compliance [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - On July 1, 2025, CGB futures rose; commodities were differentiated, with silicon metal and poly-silicon falling, and the SCFIS(Europe) rising by nearly 8%. The top three gainers were the SCFIS(Europe), gold, and TSR 20, while the top three decliners were silicon metal, glass, and coking coal [4][11][13]. - The Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized governing the disorderly low - price competition of enterprises and promoting the orderly exit of outdated production capacity. The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June rose to 50.4, returning to the expansion range [37]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On July 1, 2025, CGB futures increased. Among commodities, silicon metal and poly - silicon declined, and the SCFIS(Europe) rose by nearly 8%. The SCFIS(Europe) rose 7.8% with a 3.2% month - on - month increase in position; gold rose 1.5% with a 7.5% month - on - month increase in position; TSR 20 rose 1.2% with a 4.5% month - on - month decrease in position. Silicon metal fell 4.3% with a 1.5% month - on - month increase in position; glass fell 3.7% with a 10.4% month - on - month increase in position; coking coal fell 3.3% with a 0.3% month - on - month decrease in position [11][12][13]. 1.2 Daily Rise - **SCFIS(Europe)**: On July 1, it increased by 7.8% to 1904.9 points. EC2508 may trade between 1600 - 1900 points. Trump believes no need to extend the July 9 tariff deadline, and the US Treasury Secretary said it may be difficult to complete all negotiations. China's manufacturing PMI has rebounded slightly. Trump's tariff policies and the decline in river water levels have led to supply chain congestion at European ports. Some shipping companies reported a decrease in stockpiling, and there is a possibility of price hikes in the second half of July [17][18][19]. - **Gold**: On July 1, it rose 1.5% to 776.1 yuan/gram. Recent upward movement in risk appetite has pressured gold prices. Although the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations have rebounded slightly, it's hard to drive the gold market significantly. Focus on labor market data and the progress after the end of the first tariff easement period this week [25][26][27]. - **Copper**: On July 1, it increased by 1.1% to 80640 yuan/ton. Supply constraints and low inventories support copper prices, which may fluctuate at a high level in the short term. DXY has been declining, boosting copper prices. Copper concentrate processing fees have dropped below - $40, and raw material supply is tight. Some smelters at home and abroad have cut production. With the arrival of the consumption off - season, downstream restocking willingness has weakened, but inventories are still low [29][30][33]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - The Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized governing the disorderly low - price competition of enterprises, guiding enterprises to improve product quality, and promoting the orderly exit of outdated production capacity. It also addressed standardizing government procurement and bidding, local investment promotion, and promoting the integrated development of domestic and foreign trade [37]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, returning to the expansion range [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides individual ratings for each energy and chemical product, including "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", and "oscillating strongly" [149]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international crude oil futures market continues to oscillate. Although the global inventory is gradually rising, the low inventory in the US, the world's largest oil consumer, supports oil prices and domestic chemicals [2]. - The chemical products market remains in an oscillating state. There is a divergence in the inventory of liquid chemicals, with the inventory of pure benzene and styrene in East China ports rising to the highest in the same period in five years, while the ethylene glycol inventory has dropped to the lowest in five years. Low - inventory and high - basis varieties are expected to perform better [3]. - The overall outlook for the energy and chemical industry is to approach it with an oscillating mindset, waiting for new supply - demand drivers [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News - The EU is willing to accept a 10% uniform tariff from the US but hopes for lower rates in key industries. Trump threatens to impose new tariffs on Japan, and the US will announce trade agreements with multiple countries after July 4 [7]. - The International Energy Agency predicts that global oil demand will increase by 2.5 million barrels per day from 2024 to 2030, reaching a peak of about 105.5 million barrels per day by the end of the decade. Electric vehicles are expected to replace 5.4 million barrels per day of oil demand by the end of the decade, and the petrochemical industry will become the main source of oil - demand growth from 2026 [7]. - An oil tanker "Villamoura" carrying 1 million barrels of oil exploded near Libya. Since the beginning of this year, four other ships have had similar explosions [7]. - China's manufacturing activity improved for the second consecutive month in June but remained in a contraction state. The official manufacturing PMI was 49.7, and the non - manufacturing index rose from 50.3 to 50.5 [7]. 3.2 Variety Analysis 3.2.1 Crude Oil - On June 30, international crude oil futures continued to oscillate and declined slightly due to the record - high US production reported by EIA. The market is closely watching OPEC+'s production decision on July 6, with a high call for continued production increase in August. As global supply increases and the US changes its low - inventory pattern, oil prices may enter a downward trend [6][8]. 3.2.2 Asphalt - The main asphalt futures closed at 3,561 yuan/ton. With geopolitical cooling, OPEC+ may continue to increase production more than expected in August, and the supply of heavy oil will increase. The current asphalt price is overvalued, and its absolute price and monthly spread are expected to decline [9]. 3.2.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The main high - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3,002 yuan/ton. Geopolitical cooling, increased supply of heavy oil, and reduced demand for power generation are negative factors. The overall supply is expected to increase while demand decreases, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [10]. 3.2.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The main low - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3,600 yuan/ton. It follows the decline of crude oil. Facing factors such as reduced shipping demand, green - energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution, it is expected to maintain low - valuation operation and follow crude - oil fluctuations [11]. 3.2.5 LPG - On June 30, 2025, the PG 2508 contract closed at 4,222 yuan/ton. The market is still cautious about geopolitical risks, but the supply - demand pattern of "strong supply and weak demand" is difficult to change in the short term. The PG market is expected to oscillate in the short term [11][12]. 3.2.6 PX - On June 30, the CFR price of PX in Taiwan, China was 874(6) dollars/ton. In the short term, the cost of PX is likely to weaken due to OPEC+ production increase and concerns about global demand. Some domestic PX plants will be shut down for maintenance, and the market should focus on the implementation of device - change expectations [14]. 3.2.7 PTA - On June 30, the PTA spot price was 5,050(25) yuan/ton. This week, the crude - oil market may decline, and the support for PTA is weak. Although the supply of PTA is tight and the basis of July's supply is strong, some downstream factories plan to reduce production, so the PTA market is expected to oscillate [14]. 3.2.8 Styrene - On June 30, the spot price of styrene in East China was 7,780(-170) yuan/ton. Affected by the easing of the Middle - East situation, the styrene price has corrected. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The market should be vigilant about the impact of short - squeezing events and pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the price difference between pure benzene and styrene [15]. 3.2.9 Ethylene Glycol - On June 30, the price of ethylene glycol was sorted at a low level. The inventory in East China ports has dropped to the lowest in the same period in five years. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate strongly, and investors should not short too aggressively [17]. 3.2.10 Short - Fiber - On June 30, the raw materials provided support, and the short - fiber futures remained stable. The short - fiber price follows the raw materials, and its own supply - demand situation is oscillating. The processing fee is expected to bottom out and rise [17]. 3.2.11 Polyester Bottle Chip - On June 30, the futures of polyester raw materials rose slightly, and the price of polyester bottle chips was mostly stable. The absolute price of bottle chips follows the raw materials, and the compression space of the processing fee is limited [18][20]. 3.2.12 Methanol - On June 30, the spot price of methanol in Taicang was 2,780(-20) yuan/ton. With the easing of the Israel - Iran situation, the support for the methanol price has weakened. The port inventory has increased, and the negative feedback from the downstream has emerged. The methanol market is expected to oscillate in the short term [21][22]. 3.2.13 Urea - On June 30, 2025, the low - end prices of urea factory warehouses and the market were 1,760(+0) and 1,790(-10) yuan/ton respectively. The domestic supply - demand pattern of "strong supply and weak demand" is difficult to change, and it depends on exports. The urea market is expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to changes in export quotas [22][23]. 3.2.14 LLDPE - On June 30, the mainstream spot price of LLDPE was 7,300(0) yuan/ton. Affected by the decline in oil prices and the increase in supply, and the low downstream demand, the LLDPE 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [25]. 3.2.15 PP - On June 30, the mainstream transaction price of East China wire - drawing PP was 7,160(-20) yuan/ton. The cost is affected by oil prices, the supply is increasing, the downstream demand is weak, and the export window is limited. The PP market is expected to oscillate in the short term [26][27]. 3.2.16 PVC - The benchmark price of calcium - carbide - method PVC in East China was 4,860(+0) yuan/ton. Although the market risk preference has improved, the PVC supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the market should short on rallies [28]. 3.2.17 Caustic Soda - The 50% caustic - soda price in Shandong was 2,560(-40) yuan/ton. Affected by factors such as the decrease in electricity prices, the increase in production, and the weakening of demand, the caustic - soda market is expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to the impact of cost increases on production reduction [29]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring 3.3.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - The report provides data on the spreads (such as M1 - M2, 1 - 5 months, etc.) and basis of various energy and chemical products, as well as the changes in these data [31]. 3.3.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although the report lists different chemical products for basis and spread monitoring, specific content is not fully presented in the provided text.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas macro: US consumer sentiment has improved, and the economic fundamentals are showing signs of recovery. However, due to tariff policies, consumers remain cautious about the future, and structural concerns still exist. Inflation expectations are stabilizing, and market expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates have increased this week [8]. - Domestic macro: The domestic economic fundamentals have not changed significantly this week. Both domestic and external demand have some resilience, but the upward drive depends on the acceleration of existing policies and the implementation of incremental policies. The real estate market is in a slow season, and infrastructure construction's physical workload is seasonally decreasing. Local special bond issuance has increased at the end of the month, and the remaining trade - in funds will be allocated in July to support consumption [8]. - Asset views: The domestic economy remains stable, with mainly structural opportunities for domestic assets. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may increase short - term market volatility, while the long - term weak - dollar pattern continues. Attention should be paid to non - dollar assets and strategic allocation of resources such as gold [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market and Commodity Price Movements - **Domestic financial markets**: The CSI 300 futures rose 0.24% daily, 0.24% weekly, 3.57% monthly, 1.09% quarterly, and - 0.90% year - to - date. Treasury bond futures generally declined, with the 30 - year Treasury bond futures down 0.39% daily. The dollar index was flat, and the dollar - yuan central parity rate decreased by 41 pips daily. Interest rates such as the 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate increased [3][5]. - **Domestic commodities**: The shipping sector's container shipping to Europe route decreased by 2.42% daily. Among non - ferrous metals, copper decreased by 0.06% daily, while zinc increased by 0.38% daily. In the energy and chemical sector, NYMEX WTI crude oil decreased by 0.23% daily, and ICE UK natural gas decreased by 2.90% daily. Agricultural products showed mixed trends, with CBOT soybeans rising 0.89% daily and CBOT corn rising 1.79% daily [3][4][5]. 3.2 Macro Analysis - **Overseas macro**: The US consumer sentiment is improving, but tariff policies make consumers cautious. The inflation expectation structure is stabilizing, and market expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates have increased [8]. - **Domestic macro**: The domestic economic fundamentals are stable, but the real estate market is in a slow season, and infrastructure construction's physical workload is decreasing seasonally. Local special bond issuance is increasing, and consumption - supporting funds will be allocated in July [8]. 3.3 Viewpoints on Various Sectors - **Macro**: Overseas stagflation trading is cooling down, and the long - and short - term allocation strategies are diverging. Domestically, there may be moderate reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the fiscal side will implement established policies in the short term. Overseas, the inflation expectation structure is flattening, and economic growth expectations are improving [10]. - **Financial**: The bullish sentiment in both the stock and bond markets has declined. Stock index futures are in a state of releasing capital congestion, and stock index options require waiting for a decline in volatility. The bullish sentiment in the bond market has weakened [10]. - **Precious metals**: Risk appetite has recovered, and precious metals are undergoing short - term adjustments. The short - term trend will continue to adjust due to the progress of Sino - US negotiations [10]. - **Shipping**: Market sentiment has declined. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the increase in the loading rate in June, and the game between peak - season expectations and price increases needs to be monitored [10]. - **Black building materials**: The sector remains in a volatile pattern. Attention should be paid to the recovery of coal supply in July. Coke has completed four rounds of price cuts, and the sentiment of stabilizing prices is increasing. Coking coal supply is continuously disrupted, and the market sentiment is high [10]. - **Non - ferrous metals and new materials**: The coexistence of low inventory and weak demand expectations leads to continued volatility in non - ferrous metals. Copper prices are high due to a weak dollar index, while zinc is expected to decline due to an oversupply situation [10]. - **Energy and chemicals**: Crude oil prices are stable, and the positive basis of chemicals provides some support. Most products are in a volatile state, with some expected to decline and a few expected to rise [12]. - **Agriculture**: Sino - US negotiations have made substantial progress, which is beneficial for the cotton price to rebound. Most agricultural products are in a volatile state, with some expected to decline, such as pulp [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Weakening with fluctuations [5] - **Protein Meal**: Fluctuating [7] - **Corn and Starch**: Fluctuating [8][9] - **Hogs**: Fluctuating [2][9] - **Natural Rubber**: Fluctuating horizontally [9][10][11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Maintaining range-bound fluctuations [12] - **Cotton**: Fluctuating in the short term, with a reference range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton [13] - **Sugar**: Weakening with fluctuations in the long term, rebounding with fluctuations in the short term [14][16] - **Pulp**: Fluctuating, with a weakening bias [17] - **Logs**: Weakening with fluctuations [18] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Overall**: The report analyzes the market conditions of multiple agricultural products, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, hogs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs. It assesses the supply - demand situation, price trends, and future outlooks for each product [2][5][7][8][9][10][13][14][17][18]. - **Short - term Outlook**: Most products are expected to show a trend of fluctuating, with some having a weakening or strengthening bias. For example, oils and fats are expected to weaken with fluctuations, while protein meal is expected to fluctuate [5][7]. - **Long - term Outlook**: Some products, such as hogs and sugar, are in a downward cycle or face supply - driven downward pressure in the long term [2][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Industry Information**: In 2025, Canada's rapeseed planting area decreased by 2.5% year - on - year. The US soybean planting is completed, and its growth is good. CNPE will raise Brazil's biodiesel blending ratio from 14% to 15% on August 1. China's imported soybean arrivals are large, and domestic soybean oil inventory is rising. The expected increase in palm oil production in June is limited, and export expectations are optimistic. Domestic rapeseed oil inventory is slowly declining but remains high [5]. - **Logic**: Due to technical rebounds, last Friday, US soybeans fluctuated strongly, while US soybean oil fluctuated weakly. Yesterday, China's three major oils and fats fluctuated weakly. Considering the macro - environment and industrial factors, oils and fats are expected to continue to weaken with fluctuations [5]. - **Outlook**: Oils and fats may continue to weaken with fluctuations in the near term, but the effectiveness of the lower technical support needs attention [5]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **Industry Information**: On June 30, 2025, international soybean trade premiums and discounts showed different changes. China's imported soybean crushing profit increased week - on - week and year - on - year [6]. - **Logic**: Internationally, US soybeans are in a range - bound fluctuation. Domestically, soybean arrivals are increasing, oil mill inventories are rising, and downstream replenishment is insufficient, leading to supply pressure. In the long term, the consumption demand for soybean meal may increase steadily [7]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans are expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations. Domestic soybean meal inventories continue to accumulate. Oil mills can sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or price at low prices after price drops [7]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - **Industry Information**: According to Mysteel, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port remained unchanged, and the domestic average corn price increased by 4 yuan/ton [8]. - **Logic**: Today, China's corn prices mainly rose. The remaining vehicles at North China's deep - processing enterprises decreased due to continuous rainy weather, and the purchase price increased. The demand for corn is being squeezed by wheat, and there are rumors of policy grain auctions [8][9]. - **Outlook**: Driven by the expected supply - demand gap, the price has an upward trend, but there may be corrections due to potential negative impacts from policy grain auctions [9]. 3.4 Hogs - **Industry Information**: On June 30, the spot price of hogs in Henan increased by 0.6% month - on - month, while the futures closing price decreased by 0.96% month - on - month [9]. - **Logic**: At the end of the month, the slaughter rhythm of farms slowed down, and the spot price rose, but the futures faced high - capacity and high - inventory pressure. In the short term, the average slaughter weight is decreasing, but the utilization rate of fattening pens is increasing. In the long term, the production capacity remains high, and the supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year [2][9]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate. Recently, the average slaughter weight is slowly decreasing, but farmers' fattening profit still attracts them to hold back hogs. Currently in the off - season of consumption, the price mainly fluctuates [2][9]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Industry Information**: On June 30, the prices of various rubber products in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone and the Thai raw material market showed different changes [9][10]. - **Logic**: The external environment has changed little, and rubber prices are fluctuating horizontally. The raw material price is relatively firm, providing strong support at the bottom. The supply is expected to increase, while the demand is expected to decrease [10][11]. - **Outlook**: Before the fundamentals provide clear guidance, rubber prices may continue to fluctuate with the overall commodity market [11]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Industry Information**: The spot prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene in different regions showed different changes [12]. - **Logic**: Recently, the macro - sentiment has been relatively positive, and the BR market has maintained range - bound fluctuations. The overall operating level has dropped to the lowest since May, and inventories have slightly increased [12]. - **Outlook**: The external situation may be temporarily controllable, and the market correction may not be over. Attention should be paid to the previous low support [12]. 3.7 Cotton - **Industry Information**: As of June 30, the number of registered cotton warrants in the 24/25 season was 10,273, and the closing price of Zhengzhou cotton 09 was 13,740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton [13]. - **Logic**: In the 25/26 season, cotton production in China and other major producing countries is expected to increase. The downstream is in the off - season, and the demand is weak. The current commercial inventory is at a relatively low level, which provides support for the price [13]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, cotton prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton [13]. 3.8 Sugar - **Industry Information**: As of June 30, the closing price of Zhengzhou sugar 09 was 5,807 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton [14]. - **Logic**: Domestically, the 24/25 sugar production season has ended, and the sales rate is high, but there is an expectation of concentrated arrivals of imported sugar. Internationally, the new sugar seasons in Brazil, India, and Thailand are expected to have increased production [14][16]. - **Outlook**: In the long term, due to the expected increase in supply, sugar prices are expected to weaken with fluctuations. In the short term, they are expected to rebound with fluctuations [16]. 3.9 Pulp - **Industry Information**: On the previous trading day, the prices of various pulp products in Shandong showed different changes [17]. - **Logic**: Pulp imports remain high, and prices are in a downward trend. Demand is in the off - season, and downstream paper enterprises' inventories are increasing. The US dollar price is continuously falling, and the pulp market is facing downward pressure [17]. - **Outlook**: Due to weak supply - demand and potential positive impacts from changes in delivery rules, pulp futures are expected to fluctuate [17]. 3.10 Logs - **Industry Information**: The spot prices of logs in Jiangsu and Shandong remained stable, and the futures price of LG2507 decreased [18]. - **Logic**: Yesterday was the last trading day before the first log contract LG2507 entered the delivery month, and the price fluctuated and declined. The total inventory decreased, and the market is in the off - season. In the short term, the fundamentals are in a weak balance [18]. - **Outlook**: In the medium term, the market will gradually return to being dominated by fundamentals, and the far - month prices are expected to be weak [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Weak US dollar boosts market risk appetite, and base metal prices oscillate upwards. In the short - to - medium term, weak US dollar, low LME inventories, and weakening demand expectations are intertwined, with non - ferrous metals oscillating higher. Pay attention to structural opportunities and short - term long opportunities in copper, aluminum, and tin. In the long term, the demand outlook for base metals remains uncertain, and consider shorting opportunities for some oversupplied or expected - to - be - oversupplied varieties on price rallies [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Viewpoint**: The US dollar index declines, and copper prices operate at a high level. - **Information Analysis**: China's June manufacturing PMI is 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The 2025 mid - year TC/RC negotiation result between Antofagasta and Chinese smelters is 0.0 dollars/dry ton and 0.0 cents/pound. May electrolytic copper output increased. Spot copper premiums rose, and copper inventories decreased [3]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, expectations of Fed rate cuts drive the US dollar index down, boosting copper prices. Supply - side raw material shortages lead to smelter production cuts. Demand weakens in the off - season, but low inventories support prices. There is also a risk of a short squeeze on the LME [4]. - **Outlook**: Copper supply constraints remain, and low inventories support copper prices. In the short term, copper may show high - level oscillations [4]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: Warehouse receipt numbers remain low, and the alumina futures market oscillates. - **Information Analysis**: Spot prices in different regions are stable or slightly changed. An overseas transaction price increased. Warehouse receipts on the SHFE were flat [5][6]. - **Main Logic**: In the short - to - medium term, there is no shortage of ore, with rising production capacity and inventories, and a downward - moving spot price center. However, significant warehouse receipt reduction causes concerns. Long - term events have limited impact for now [5]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, it oscillates weakly. Observe near - month warehouse receipt numbers. Consider shorting cautiously after the far - month contract rises further. Participate in reverse arbitrage if warehouse receipts increase or there is a risk - free arbitrage opportunity in the near - month contract [5]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: The sustainability of inventory accumulation needs to be observed, and electrolytic aluminum prices oscillate at a high level. - **Information Analysis**: The average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased, and inventories increased [7][12]. - **Main Logic**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts ease, the US dollar weakens, and risk appetite recovers. Domestic inventories are accumulating, but the sustainability is uncertain. In the long term, aluminum demand depends on actual consumption [9]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, market sentiment improves, and prices may oscillate strongly. In the long term, consumption is a concern, and consider shorting on price rallies [9]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Spot trading is light, and the aluminum alloy futures market oscillates. - **Information Analysis**: The price of ADC12 decreased, and there are uncertainties in trade policies [9]. - **Main Logic**: Short - term costs are driven up by aluminum prices, but demand is seasonally weak. In the future, the price difference between ADC12 and A00 may rise [10]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, spot ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 oscillate weakly, and the futures market follows electrolytic aluminum. In the medium term, there is room for price recovery [10]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: Supply and demand are slightly oversupplied, and pay attention to shorting opportunities at high zinc prices. - **Information Analysis**: Spot premiums vary in different regions, inventories increased, and a mine's production forecast is adjusted [10][13]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the situation is neutral. Supply is loosening, and smelters are profitable. Demand is in the off - season, and inventories are accumulating. In the long term, supply will increase while demand growth is limited [14]. - **Outlook**: In July, zinc production will increase, demand will weaken, and inventories will accumulate. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate weakly [14]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: Cost support is stable, and lead prices oscillate. - **Information Analysis**: Scrap battery prices are stable, lead ingot prices decreased slightly, and inventories increased slightly [14][15]. - **Main Logic**: On the spot side, premiums are stable. Supply - side production may decrease slightly, and demand - side battery factory operating rates are recovering [15]. - **Outlook**: After tariff cuts, demand recovers, and supply may decrease. Cost support is strong, and lead prices will oscillate [15]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: Indonesian nickel enterprises' construction accelerates, and nickel prices oscillate widely in the short term. - **Information Analysis**: LME and SHFE nickel inventories changed, and there are multiple industry - related events such as project construction and policy changes [16][17]. - **Main Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. Raw material supply may loosen, and there is an oversupply of electrolytic nickel with high inventories [20]. - **Outlook**: Market sentiment improves. Long - term positions can be closed. In the short term, nickel prices will oscillate widely [20]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Nickel iron prices continue to decline, and the stainless - steel futures market oscillates weakly. - **Information Analysis**: Futures warehouse receipts decreased, spot premiums exist, and there are industry - related events in Indonesia and South Korea's anti - dumping policies [21][23]. - **Main Logic**: Nickel iron and chrome iron prices are weakening, and steel mills are under pressure. Production may decrease, and demand may weaken. Inventory accumulation is limited [26]. - **Outlook**: Cost support weakens, but price drops may lead to production cuts. Pay attention to inventory and cost changes. In the short term, it may maintain range - bound oscillations [26]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand fundamentals are resilient, and tin prices oscillate. - **Information Analysis**: Warehouse receipts on the LME were flat, and those on the SHFE increased. Spot prices decreased [26][27]. - **Main Logic**: Domestic tin ore shortages are intensifying, and Indonesian export license replacement causes supply problems. Supply is expected to decrease, but demand may weaken in the second half of the year [27]. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are supported by tight ore supply. The extent of the transmission of ore shortages to ingot supply will determine the price level in July. Tin prices are expected to oscillate [27].