投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2026-3-10 通胀担忧升温叠加美元偏强，贵⾦属震 荡运⾏ 美伊冲突已进⼊第⼗天，敌对⾏动持续；伊朗领导层交接完成，哈梅内伊 之⼦当选新领袖、表明强硬派依然牢牢掌权，特朗普表态"结果不可接 受"，地缘⻛险持续升温。⽇内贵⾦属震荡运⾏，内外盘⾛势有所分化， 主因中东局势升级进⼀步推升⽇内油价、加剧通胀担忧，抵消上周五美国 ⾮农数据爆冷带来的利好。预计短线贵⾦属维持区间震荡，后续重点关注 霍尔⽊兹海峡局势、3⽉11⽇将公布的美国2⽉CPI数据、3⽉17-18⽇联储 议息会议决议等。（以上新闻来⾃中国新闻⽹和新京报，数据来⾃万得） 宏观研究团队 研究员： 黄金观点：短期或震荡运行，关注后续滞胀交易切换的潜在驱动 逻辑：万得数据显示，日内黄金震荡运行，COMEX金价跌幅超1%，SHF E金价变动不大，主因日内原油价格拉涨加剧通胀担忧，抑制美联储 降息预期并支撑美元偏强。中东地缘风险延续，据中国新闻网报道， 伊朗已宣布已故最高领袖赛义德·阿里·哈梅内伊之子穆杰塔巴·哈 梅内伊为新任最高领袖，表明伊朗强硬派掌权格局稳固。此外，交易 商从黄金 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical risks have intensified, leading to an increase in energy valuations and rising shipping costs, which strengthen the cost - side support and drive up the prices of the black building materials sector. However, the current situation in the off - season is lackluster. There are still inventory contradictions in steel, high inventory pressure in iron ore is difficult to alleviate, Mongolian coal imports remain high, the supply - demand surplus in the glass and soda ash market remains unchanged, and the fundamentals of alloys lack support. The expectation for the peak season is still cautious, causing prices to fall after a short - term increase [1]. - With many disturbances such as domestic and overseas macro - expectations and geopolitical conflicts, if the geopolitical conflicts continue, the futures prices will still have an upward drive. But as it is still the off - season, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the peak - season expectation is cautious. Once the external disturbances weaken, there will be a risk of price correction at high levels. Attention should be paid to geopolitical risks and the realization of peak - season demand [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments have decreased month - on - month, while arrivals have significantly increased. The high inventory pressure is difficult to ease in the short term. With the Two Sessions and geopolitical disturbances, there are uncertainties in the macro environment. If macro disturbances weaken, the fundamental pressure on iron ore will be large. It is expected to oscillate weakly [1][7][8]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply - demand pattern of the scrap steel market has marginally improved, with demand recovering slightly faster than supply. The fundamentals provide some support for prices. Driven by the rise in finished - product prices, scrap steel is expected to follow the upward trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the rebound in finished - product prices and the actual recovery progress of terminal demand [1][9]. 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: In the short term, there are disturbances in hot metal production, but there is still long - term rigid demand support for coke. After the first round of spot price cuts, the possibility of continuous multiple - round cuts is small. The futures market is expected to follow the cost - side coking coal. If geopolitical conflicts continue, it may be strong following energy prices; if the conflicts ease, it is expected to oscillate [2][10]. - **Coking Coal**: The resumption of coal mines is still restricted, but the high imports of Mongolian coal put pressure on the fundamentals. Spot prices are expected to oscillate. The current futures prices are affected by many factors such as domestic and overseas macro - expectations and geopolitical conflicts. If the conflicts continue, it may follow the upward trend of crude oil prices; if the conflicts ease, it is expected to oscillate [2][11]. 3.3 Alloys - **Silicomanganese**: The silicomanganese market has strong supply and weak demand, with insufficient fundamental support. There are resistance in cost - side transmission, and high upstream inventory leads to significant selling - hedging pressure on the futures market. When futures prices rise above the cost line, the risk of correction should be guarded against [2][15]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply - demand drive in the ferrosilicon market is limited. The continuous repair of industry profits may accelerate the resumption of production by manufacturers, weakening the supply - demand relationship. When the futures valuation recovers above the cost line, the risk of high - level correction should be vigilant [2][16]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventories of middle and downstream are moderately high. Currently, the supply - demand is in surplus. If there is no obvious improvement in demand after the Lantern Festival, high inventories will always suppress prices [2][5][12]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply - demand is in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply - surplus pattern will intensify, the price center will decline, and capacity will be reduced [2][5][14]. 3.5 Other Information - **Steel**: The cost support is strong, and the futures market is firm. Spot market transactions have warmed up, but the overall demand is still at a low level. Steel inventory continues to accumulate, and the fundamental contradiction needs time to ease. The futures market has an upward drive but is limited. Attention should be paid to peak - season demand [7]. - **Commodity Index**: On March 9, 2026, the comprehensive index, special index (including commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial product index), and plate index (such as the steel industry chain index) of CITIC Futures all had different degrees of increase or decline. For example, the comprehensive index increased by 2.93%, the commodity 20 index increased by 2.55%, and the industrial product index increased by 3.87%. The steel industry chain index increased by 2.51% on the day, 3.54% in the past 5 days, - 0.37% in the past month, and 0.37% since the beginning of the year [102][103].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - term supply - demand expectations of new energy metals continue to diverge. The supply - demand of lithium carbonate remains tight, while that of industrial silicon and polysilicon is generally loose. In the short term, the pessimistic demand expectation has pressured the lithium carbonate price, but the actual supply - demand is tight with active downstream buying. Polysilicon is under pressure due to loose supply - demand, and industrial silicon is boosted by cost increase expectations. In the long term, the supply of polysilicon is expected to shrink, and its price may fluctuate widely. The lithium ore capacity is rising, and the demand expectation is high, with the expected supply - demand surplus narrowing and the price center expected to rise [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Price Information**: As of March 9, the price of oxygen - passed 553 in Xinjiang was 8650 yuan/ton and in Yunnan was 9300 yuan/ton; 421 in Xinjiang was 8850 yuan/ton and in Yunnan was 9750 yuan/ton. As of last week, the domestic inventory of industrial silicon was 452,650 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1%. In February, the output of industrial silicon was 238,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 25.7%. In 2025, the cumulative production was 4.055 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.7%. In December 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 59,036 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.6% and a year - on - year increase of 2.4%; the cumulative export volume from January to December was 720,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6% [6]. - **Main Logic**: The valuation of industrial silicon is low. The market focuses on the electricity price fluctuation in Xinjiang, and the silicon price rebounds under cost support. In terms of fundamentals, on the supply side, the operation in the southwest has dropped to a very low level during the dry season, and Sichuan has basically stopped production. The northwest large - scale plants reduced production at the end of January, and the number of operating furnaces increased last week. The operation of northwest silicon plants is expected to recover, and the operation in the southwest will also increase during the wet season, so there is still long - term over - supply pressure. On the demand side, the polysilicon inventory consumption pressure is large, some silicon material plants continue to have shutdown maintenance, and the demand for industrial silicon in March is still weak; the silicone enterprises maintain prices, and the demand for industrial silicon is weakly stable; the demand for industrial silicon from aluminum alloy has limited boost. In general, after the Spring Festival, some production capacity of northwest silicon plants has resumed. In the medium - and long - term, the supply elasticity of industrial silicon is large while the demand is weak, and the industry over - supply pressure still exists [6]. - **Outlook**: The silicon price is still under pressure due to the medium - and long - term supply recovery pressure. Currently, the market sentiment is volatile, and the silicon price is expected to fluctuate [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Price Information**: On March 9, the average transaction price of N - type dense material was 49 yuan/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0 yuan/kg. The latest number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange on March 9 was 10,350 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 0 lots. In December 2025, the total export volume of polysilicon in China was about 1,670.41 tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to December was about 25,115.57 tons. In December 2025, the total import volume of polysilicon was about 1,872.81 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to December was about 19,051.01 tons [6][7]. - **Main Logic**: Recently, the energy price has risen rapidly, and the price of polysilicon, a high - energy - consuming commodity, has also been boosted in the short term. In terms of supply fundamentals, with the arrival of the dry season, the polysilicon production capacity in the southwest has gradually reduced, and the current production is at a low level. On the demand side, the demand for polysilicon continues to be weak, the silicon wafer production schedule is at a relatively low level, the polysilicon inventory is accumulating, and the number of warehouse receipts is also increasing, which puts pressure on the price. In general, the weak demand drags down the short - term polysilicon price trend, and the spot price has been continuously adjusted down. In the long term, considering that the supply of polysilicon is also shrinking, and the leading enterprises are strengthening mergers and acquisitions, the long - term supply - demand of polysilicon is expected to tighten, and the price may show a wide - range fluctuation [7]. - **Outlook**: The weak demand drags down the polysilicon price trend, but considering that the supply is still at a low level, the polysilicon price may show a wide - range fluctuation in the medium - and long - term [7]. 3.1.3 Lithium Carbonate - **Price Information**: On March 6, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 3.14% to 161,060 yuan/ton compared with the previous day; the total open interest of the lithium carbonate contract decreased by 2,932 lots to 625,799 lots. On March 6, the morning spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 153,750 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1,050 yuan/ton, and the evening market price was 154,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 750 yuan/ton; the morning price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 151,000 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 750 yuan/ton, and the evening price was 154,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 750 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 531 lots to 36,861 lots [8]. - **Main Logic**: The fundamentals of lithium carbonate in March are still strong, but the subsequent performance of the terminal remains to be observed. Since 2026, the supply has remained relatively strong. Although some enterprises have carried out maintenance and production reduction, the overall supply is at a high level. At the same time, the demand is good, and the downstream is active in stocking after the price adjustment. The supply - demand remains in a tight balance, and the social inventory has decreased. After the Spring Festival, both the supply and demand sides have recovered. The strong demand in March and the ban on lithium ore exports in Zimbabwe have significantly boosted the market sentiment. However, the sales volume of new energy vehicles from January to February is not optimistic and needs further verification in March and April, which is the key to the supply - demand balance in the second quarter. Before that, the price is expected to fluctuate. In addition, the energy price increase caused by the Middle East war may increase the energy storage demand, which has a certain impact on the price [9]. - **Outlook**: The short - term supply - demand shows a tight balance, but the demand shows signs of weakening. The price is expected to fluctuate [9]. 3.2行情监测 - Not provided with specific content for further summarization 3.3中信期货商品指数 - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index was 2,584.35, an increase of 2.93%; the commodity 20 index was 2,937.05, an increase of 2.55%; the industrial product index was 2,527.43, an increase of 3.87%; the PPI commodity index was 1,455.85, an increase of 1.70% [47]. - **New Energy Commodity Index**: On March 9, 2026, the index was 522.37, with a daily increase of 1.54%, a 5 - day increase of 0.61%, a monthly decrease of 1.81%, and an increase of 2.49% since the beginning of the year [48].

1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - International crude oil futures continue to oscillate at high levels, and the price trend depends on geopolitical factors. In the current situation, it will continue to oscillate strongly. Chemical products are expected to outperform crude oil in the later stage, especially aromatics with a high proportion of crude oil costs [2]. - The overall energy and chemical industry will continue the strong oscillation pattern led by crude oil [2]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical disturbances cause sharp price fluctuations, and the focus is on the development of the situation in the Middle East. - **Main Logic**: Trump's statement that the US - Iran war may end soon and the G7's plan to release strategic oil reserves led to significant intraday price fluctuations. Although concerns about the continuous obstruction of the Strait of Hormuz have weakened, the current export obstruction and production cuts in some countries mean that if a cease - fire is confirmed later, the oil price may fall further, but it is difficult to drop to the pre - conflict level in the short term. Before the situation becomes clear, the price is expected to oscillate strongly after a pullback [8]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly [8]. Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: Asphalt profit is significantly compressed. - **Main Logic**: After the US - Iran conflict, the rise and fall of crude oil and asphalt prices, along with the change in asphalt - fuel oil spread and downstream negative feedback on high prices, have affected asphalt refinery profits. The supply - demand situation is weak, with inventory accumulation and low refinery start - up. The asphalt price is relatively undervalued compared to fuel oil and overvalued compared to rebar [9][10]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. The absolute price of asphalt is in the overvalued range, and the medium - to - long - term valuation is expected to decline [10]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors drive the continuous sharp rise in fuel oil futures prices. - **Main Logic**: The US - Iran conflict, with the high import dependence and strong geopolitical attributes of fuel oil, has led to a sharp rise in prices. The tense situation in Iran affects fuel oil and natural gas supply expectations. The continuous decline in the asphalt - fuel oil spread also drives the rise in fuel oil prices. In the medium - to - long - term, the replacement of fuel oil power generation demand in the Middle East is a negative factor [10]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. The expected increase in Venezuelan oil production exerts long - term pressure, and the short - term focus is on the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [11]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: It follows the continuous strength of crude oil. - **Main Logic**: After the US - Iran conflict, it follows the rise of natural gas and crude oil. Although facing negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand and green energy substitution, its low valuation and strong main - product attributes make the cracking spread strengthen during the rise of crude oil. The export tax rebate rate advantage and the transfer of the pressure of reducing oil and increasing chemicals are also considered [12]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. Affected by green fuel substitution and limited high - sulfur substitution demand, but with a low current valuation, it follows the fluctuation of crude oil [12]. PX - **Viewpoint**: The joint strategic petroleum reserve release plan cools the market, but the short - term supply shortage is difficult to alleviate. - **Main Logic**: The geopolitical situation has not shown obvious signs of easing, and the shipping stagnation in the Strait of Hormuz deepens the market's panic about crude oil supply interruption. Although many countries plan to release reserves, the short - term situation is still difficult to ease. In addition, the unexpected shutdown of domestic PX plants has led to a short - term supply contraction and improved supply - demand margins [14][15]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the PX price will oscillate strongly under the resonance of cost support and market sentiment. The mid - term logic of buying on dips remains, the PX 05 - 09 spread is expected to be positively arbitraged on dips, and the PXN is expected to be broadly sorted within [250, 330] US dollars/ton [15]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: The futures price follows the cost limit - up, the spot price follows up smoothly, and the basis remains strong. - **Main Logic**: The continuous fermentation of the geopolitical situation over the weekend and the sharp rise in crude oil prices on Monday led to the limit - up of PTA futures. The spot price increase followed well, and the market's concern about raw material risks forced PTA plants to reduce or stop production. In the short term, it is expected to follow the cost fluctuation, and the spot processing fee is under pressure [16]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to maintain a strong oscillation trend in the short term. The TA05 - 09 spread is expected to maintain the positive arbitrage logic in the short term, and the support for the TA price has increased. Short - term top - fishing attempts are not recommended [16]. Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: Driven by crude oil and commodity sentiment, it oscillates strongly. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts push up oil prices, which not only increase the cost of aromatics but also affect production due to raw material limitations. On the supply side, some enterprises reduce production due to concerns about rising raw material prices or shortages. On the demand side, the expectation of price increases leads to active buying by downstream enterprises and improved downstream profits [18]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly. The strong oscillation of crude oil prices and enterprise production cuts may increase future inventory reduction efforts [18]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: Affected by concentrated plant maintenance and production cuts and crude oil fluctuations, it oscillates strongly. - **Main Logic**: The Middle East geopolitical conflict pushes up oil prices, affecting the cost and production of aromatics. Multiple plants plan maintenance or reduce production, and the production cost of ethylene, another raw material, has increased, with some plants having the expectation of production cuts or maintenance. On the demand side, the shortage of overseas styrene due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz increases China's styrene exports, and downstream and terminal enterprises actively buy goods, with improved profits and strong market sentiment [19]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly. With the strong oscillation of crude oil prices, styrene exports and many plant maintenance and production cuts, inventory reduction may resume in March [19]. Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: The restart of idle capacity and the postponement of maintenance plans hinder the upward movement of the ethylene glycol market at high levels. - **Main Logic**: The escalation of the Middle East situation and overseas logistics obstacles lead to a sharp rise in crude oil prices, driving up the price of ethylene glycol. However, the restart of some coal - chemical plants and the postponement of maintenance plans fill the supply gap to a certain extent. In the short term, it follows the cost and market sentiment. If the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, it may remain strong [20][21]. - **Outlook**: The price oscillates in the short term. For the medium - term, buy on dips. In the short term, maintain a wait - and - see attitude and operate cautiously. Pay attention to reducing positions on rallies in the short - term EG05 - 09 spread [21]. Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The spot price is much higher than the futures price, and the market still has a fear - of - high - price sentiment. - **Main Logic**: The sharp rise in international oil prices drives up the price of polyester raw materials and short - fiber prices. The current large gap between spot and futures prices leads to a fear - of - high - price sentiment. Attention should be paid to changes in the external market and cost fluctuations [22]. - **Outlook**: The short - fiber price follows the upstream market and maintains a strong oscillation trend in the short term. The processing fee has certain support at the bottom, and the short - term price volatility is large. Operate cautiously [22]. Polyester Bottle Chip - **Viewpoint**: In the short term, it is guided by upstream costs, and volatility increases. - **Main Logic**: The rise in crude oil and upstream raw material prices drives up the price of polyester bottle chips. The market trading atmosphere is light, and the trading center has risen significantly. In the short term, the price trend is expected to follow the upstream cost [24]. - **Outlook**: The absolute price follows the raw material fluctuation, the support for the processing fee at the bottom is enhanced, and the position of going long PR and short TA can be temporarily closed [26]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The geopolitical conflict continues, and methanol oscillates within a range. - **Main Logic**: On March 9, 2026, the methanol futures price rose significantly. The domestic production area's auction price was at a relatively high level, and the inventory situation showed an increase in production enterprise inventory and a slight decrease in port inventory. The geopolitical conflict led to a commodity premium market, and the expectation of a shortage of methanol imports due to the restricted passage of the Strait of Hormuz supported the trading logic [28]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. The situation in Iran is severe, and the market tends to trade on geopolitical premiums, which are difficult to disappear in the short term. After the price reaches a high level, it is dragged down by weak fundamentals but still has upward space, showing a range - bound oscillation [29]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: Driven significantly by sentiment, urea oscillates at a high level after rising. - **Main Logic**: On March 9, 2026, urea prices rose strongly. The supply side has a high and stable daily output, while the demand side has a weakening agricultural top - dressing demand and only compound fertilizers provide rigid industrial demand. The inventory of production enterprises has decreased. The spot price is restricted by the guidance price, but the futures price rises strongly driven by the rise in international energy prices and the influx of funds, driving the spot price to rise steadily [29][30]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. The current fundamentals are relatively stable. The supply remains high, and the agricultural demand support weakens, while industrial demand recovers moderately. The spot price is restricted by policies, and after the futures price rises significantly driven by sentiment, the market is in a wait - and - see state, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level [30]. LLDPE - **Viewpoint**: The PE spot price jumps, but the trading volume is limited. - **Main Logic**: The rise in oil prices is affected by the geopolitical situation. The import of PE may decrease if the Strait of Hormuz is continuously affected. The sentiment in the energy and chemical market is strong, driving the price of plastic. The spot price jumps, and the basis strengthens significantly, but the trading volume shrinks [32]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate in the short term [32]. PP - **Viewpoint**: The rise in oil prices drives up the PP spot price, but the trading volume is limited. - **Main Logic**: Similar to LLDPE, the rise in oil prices is affected by geopolitics. The direct impact on PP imports from the Middle East is limited. The refinery profit of PP is still under pressure, providing support for the price. The spot price rises significantly, and the basis strengthens, but the downstream trading volume decreases significantly [33]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate in the short term [34]. PL - **Viewpoint**: Boosted by the raw material end, PL rises. - **Main Logic**: On March 9, PL strengthened significantly, boosted by propane and methanol. The geopolitical situation is favorable, but the enthusiasm of buyers is limited, and the trading volume at high prices is relatively small. The powder profit is compressed again, and the acceptance of downstream factories is limited [34]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate in the short term [34]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical disturbances continue, and PVC shows a cautious and optimistic attitude. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts increase the cost support and supply disturbance expectations in the energy and chemical industry. Overseas production cuts have improved PVC exports and are expected to reduce inventory. Domestically, the chlor - alkali production is high, and the spring maintenance plan is less than in previous years. The downstream start - up has improved, and the export orders have increased. The supply shortage of raw materials such as crude oil and naphtha has pushed up the cost of ethylene - based PVC [35]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly. Geopolitical disturbances increase the risk of chlor - alkali production cuts, making PVC optimistic. If the geopolitical conflict eases or a large amount of crude oil reserves are released, the optimistic sentiment may cool down [35]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The spot price has limited follow - up ability, and caustic soda oscillates temporarily. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts increase the cost support and supply reduction expectations in the energy and chemical industry. Overseas production cuts have improved caustic soda exports and are expected to reduce inventory. The alumina and electrolytic aluminum industries are approaching production capacity matching, and the demand for caustic soda in some regions has changed. The export orders have improved, but the sustainability needs to be observed [36]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. Geopolitical disturbances increase the risk of chlor - alkali production cuts, and the improvement in caustic soda exports drives the spot price to rebound. The sustainability of exports needs to be observed. If the geopolitical conflict eases or a large amount of crude oil reserves are released, the optimistic sentiment may cool down [36]. 4. Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., including the latest values and their changes, with different units for different varieties [38]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the basis, basis changes, and warehouse receipt information of multiple varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, etc., with corresponding units for each variety [39]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of different categories such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc., are presented, including the latest values and their changes [40]. Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report lists the monitoring of various varieties such as methanol, urea, etc., but specific details are not fully presented in the text. The main idea may be to monitor the basis and spread changes of these chemical products to provide references for market analysis and trading decisions.

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical conflicts are causing significant fluctuations in the agricultural product market, with different products showing various trends and being affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical events, supply - demand fundamentals, and cost changes [1][5]. - The prices of most agricultural products are closely related to the development of the Middle - East situation, and the market is trading the "conflict premium" before the war shows a clear end signal [5]. Summary by Variety Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Middle - East situation deteriorates, and vegetable oils hit the daily limit during trading. The price trend is highly correlated with the evolution of the Middle - East situation, and the core logic is that "the duration of the war determines the price level". - **Logic**: The war in the Middle - East leads to a sharp short - term increase in crude oil and its products. It affects oil prices through multiple paths. Before the war ends, the market will trade the "conflict premium", and the price center may rise. After the war, the prices will face downward pressure but may turn to a bullish shock pattern in the long - term due to low inventory and weather factors. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to be bullish with shocks. It is recommended to pay attention to the phased low - level buying strategy [5]. Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: The volatility of double meals intensifies, and attention should be paid to the development of the Middle - East situation. - **Logic**: Internationally, the escalation of the US - Iran conflict and the spill - over effect of rising crude oil prices drive up the price of US soybeans. The expected implementation of the US biodiesel bill in March may boost the US soybean crushing volume. In South America, the soybean production in Brazil is expected to be lower than the February estimate. Domestically, the opening limit - up of soybean meal futures is affected by the US - Iran conflict, but the supply fundamentals are still loose. - **Outlook**: Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate. The increase in US soybean prices due to the US - Iran conflict raises the cost of domestic soybean meal, and the market is worried about the delay of Brazilian soybean arrivals [5]. Corn - **Viewpoint**: Emotional funds cause corn to rise first and then fall. - **Logic**: The rise in the futures price is mainly due to macro and fund rotation, trading the "war premium". In the short - term, there are no major negative factors in the domestic corn fundamentals. In the medium - term, the supply - demand is tight, and the fundamentals and emotions resonate to support the price increase. However, the increase is relatively rational compared to oils and fats. - **Outlook**: Bullish with shocks. In March, the increase in spot prices may narrow, and attention should be paid to the capital movement in the futures market. In the medium - term, corn is generally bullish [5][6]. Pigs - **Viewpoint**: The futures price is driven up by cost and sentiment, but the spot supply - demand is still loose. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the planned daily slaughter volume in March increases. In the medium - term, the supply pressure is large. In the long - term, the process of capacity reduction is not smooth. The demand is in the off - season after the festival, and the inventory and weight of pigs increase. - **Outlook**: Bearish with shocks. In the first half of the year, the industry is advised to pay attention to the hedging opportunity of short - selling at high prices. The pig cycle is expected to bottom out and pick up in the second half of the year [7]. Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are insufficient to support the price, and the price follows with difficulty. - **Logic**: Although the price was driven up by the sharp rise of synthetic rubber, it quickly fell back, indicating that the fundamentals do not support the rise. The short - term trading logic is still related to the Middle - East geopolitics, and the downstream tire orders to the Middle - East are affected, which is negative for the price. - **Outlook**: The price will maintain a shock pattern due to limited fundamental variables [8][10]. Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The strength continues, and the futures price hits the daily limit. - **Logic**: The Middle - East geopolitical event leads to a continuous rise in crude oil. Driven by the daily limit of multiple varieties in the sector, BR maintains its strength. The export of butadiene last week intensifies the bullish sentiment in the market. As long as crude oil remains strong, the futures price is likely to rise. - **Outlook**: The futures price mainly follows the sector sentiment. If crude oil continues to rise, the price will remain strong in the short - term, but attention should be paid to the rapid change of geopolitical sentiment [12]. Cotton - **Viewpoint**: The price rises during trading and then falls back, continuing the consolidation pattern. - **Logic**: There is no new driving force in the cotton market, and funds flow into hot varieties. The domestic cotton commercial inventory is in the de - stocking period, and the domestic supply - demand is expected to be in a tight balance. Overseas, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve in the next season. - **Outlook**: Bullish with shocks. It is recommended to buy on dips [13]. Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The sharp fluctuation of oil prices causes short - term shocks in sugar prices. - **Logic**: In the long - term, the internal and external sugar prices are expected to continue the weak shock at the bottom. In the short - term, affected by the rise and sharp fluctuation of oil prices, the futures price may have a shock rebound, but it is difficult to reverse the oversupply pattern. - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate. Affected by the oil price fluctuation caused by the Middle - East conflict, the sugar price may have a shock rebound, and the internal price range can be moderately expanded to 5100 - 5500 yuan/ton [14]. Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The price rises first and then falls back, and is greatly affected by the market trading atmosphere. - **Logic**: The fluctuation of pulp futures is mainly affected by the transmission of crude oil fluctuations. The current fundamentals are weak, but the seasonal demand is expected to increase. The supply - demand situation is complex, with both positive and negative factors. - **Outlook**: Bullish with shocks. The expected improvement in demand forms a positive factor, and the pulp price will maintain a bullish shock pattern within the range [16]. Double - Glue Paper - **Viewpoint**: Paper mills announce price increases, and the futures price is bullish within the range. - **Logic**: The trading atmosphere in the double - glue paper market is average, and the price is stable. The supply pressure exists, and the downstream demand is weak. In March - April, the supply and demand are expected to increase, and the price is expected to rise. In May, the price may fall. - **Outlook**: Bullish with shocks. After the festival, the supply and demand are expected to increase, and the price is expected to be bullish within the range in the short - term [18]. Logs - **Viewpoint**: The cost increases, and the logs are bullish with shocks. - **Logic**: The geopolitical conflict increases the freight cost and the CFR quotation of the outer market. The domestic spot price follows the increase. In the short - term, the price is bullish with shocks. In the medium - term, the price may be under pressure after the arrival of a large number of logs. - **Outlook**: The price will maintain a shock pattern. The increase in the outer - market quotation drives up the domestic spot price, and the price will maintain a range - bound operation [19]. Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index (including commodity 20 index and industrial products index), and sector index (agricultural product index) all show an upward trend on March 9, 2026. The agricultural product index has a daily increase of 2.48%, a 5 - day increase of 3.55%, a 1 - month increase of 3.93%, and a year - to - date increase of 5.17% [180][182].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, oil price fluctuations dominate the market, leading to wide - range oscillations in base metals. The weakening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and potential recession concerns may suppress base metals if oil prices continue to rise, but high - energy - consuming metals with supply disruptions like aluminum will benefit. If oil prices decline, base metals may rebound. Mid - term trends depend on the duration of the US - Iran conflict and oil price movements [1]. - Different metals have different trends: copper prices will continue to oscillate; alumina prices will have wide - range oscillations; aluminum and aluminum alloy prices will oscillate with an upward bias; zinc prices will oscillate at a high level; lead prices will oscillate; nickel prices will oscillate with an upward bias; stainless steel prices will oscillate; tin prices will have a correction but are expected to be supported at the bottom [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **Viewpoint**: The rebound of the US dollar index causes copper prices to continue oscillating. - **Analysis**: On March 9, the spot price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper had a premium of - 45 yuan/ton, a 35 - yuan/ton increase from the previous day; the spot TC of 25% copper concentrate was - 56 dollars/dry ton, unchanged from the previous day. In February, the US non - farm payrolls decreased by 92,000, far lower than the expected increase of over 50,000. - **Logic**: Macroscopically, rising energy prices increase US inflation risks, and the rising US dollar index pressures copper prices. In terms of supply and demand, copper mine supply disruptions are increasing, and the spot TC of copper concentrate is at a low level and has declined significantly recently. The long - term processing fee for copper mines in 2026 has reached a record low, strengthening the expectation of a contraction in refined copper supply. On the demand side, with the arrival of the off - season, terminal demand remains weak, and high social inventories of refined copper limit the upward movement of copper prices. - **Outlook**: Copper prices are expected to oscillate before significant inventory reduction [6]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **Viewpoint**: Weakening demand expectations compete with cost support, leading to wide - range oscillations in alumina prices. - **Analysis**: On March 9, the national weighted average price of alumina was 2,683.9 yuan/ton, a 10.3 - yuan/ton increase from the previous day; the alumina warehouse receipts were 337,159 tons, a 13 - ton decrease from the previous day. - **Logic**: Recently, macro sentiment has amplified market fluctuations. Fundamentally, the average spot price has dropped significantly compared to the end of last year, and high - cost inland production capacity is facing losses, increasing the expectation of supply contraction. However, the actual supply contraction is insufficient. The production disruptions of electrolytic aluminum plants in the Middle East have weakened the demand expectation for alumina, but rising freight, ore, and caustic soda prices support the price. - **Outlook**: Alumina prices are expected to maintain wide - range oscillations [6]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical conflicts increase supply concerns, causing aluminum prices to oscillate with an upward bias. - **Analysis**: On March 9, the domestic average spot price of electrolytic aluminum was 25,179 yuan/ton, a 747 - yuan/ton increase from the previous day; the spot premium was - 155 yuan/ton, a 40 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous day. The inventory of aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 1.28 million tons, a 10,000 - ton increase from the previous day; the inventory of aluminum rods was 393,000 tons, a 10,000 - ton decrease from the previous day. The electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 335,828 tons, a 6,201 - ton increase from the previous day. - **Logic**: Macroscopically, the US economic data shows structural differentiation, and the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has further escalated. On the supply side, domestic installed capacity remains stable, and smelting profits are high. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have increased energy prices and supply disruptions overseas. In Indonesia, mid - term supply growth is restricted by factors such as electricity. On the demand side, the weekly initial - stage operating rate has slightly improved, but high prices still suppress demand, and the spot remains at a discount. The weekly social inventory continues to accumulate, and the proportion of molten aluminum is expected to decrease. - **Outlook**: In the short term, due to fluctuating capital sentiment and the expectation of tight supply and demand, aluminum prices are expected to maintain an upward - biased oscillation. In the mid - term, with limited new domestic production capacity, overseas production restricted by electricity, and resilient demand growth, the supply - demand balance will turn to shortage, and the center of aluminum prices is expected to rise [7][8]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Cost support continues, and prices oscillate with an upward bias. - **Analysis**: On March 9, the price of ADC12 was 24,600 yuan/ton, a 500 - yuan/ton increase from the previous day; the domestic average spot price of electrolytic aluminum was 25,179 yuan/ton, a 747 - yuan/ton increase from the previous day; the difference between ADC12 and A00 was - 579 yuan/ton, a 247 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous day. The registered warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 58,099 tons, a 630 - ton decrease from the previous day. - **Logic**: On the cost side, the price of scrap aluminum follows the price of aluminum ingots, and the supply shortage is difficult to improve in the short term, providing strong cost support. On the supply side, the operating rate remains low, and mid - term tax - refund policies and tax transfer may still restrict supply. On the demand side, the policy of trading in old cars for new ones continues, but the subsidy intensity has decreased. High prices suppress downstream demand, and purchases are mainly for rigid needs. The weekly social inventory has decreased. - **Outlook**: In the short term, with cost support and stable supply and demand, prices are expected to continue to oscillate with an upward bias. In the mid - term, cost support is strengthened, and there is a risk of production reduction or suspension due to policy changes, and the supply - demand balance will remain tight [9]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **Viewpoint**: TC is still at a low level, and zinc prices oscillate at a high level. - **Analysis**: On March 9, the premium of Shanghai 0 zinc to the main contract was - 80 yuan/ton, that of Guangdong 0 zinc was - 100 yuan/ton, and that of Tianjin 0 zinc was - 60 yuan/ton. As of March 9, the total inventory of zinc ingots in six regions was 218,300 tons, a 4,700 - ton increase from the previous day. - **Logic**: Macroscopically, due to the continuous US - Iran military conflict and the sharp rise in oil prices, investors' concerns about economic slowdown have increased, and the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has weakened again. On the supply side, the decline of zinc ore processing fees has slowed down, and smelter profits have not improved significantly, but the import volume of zinc ore has increased marginally, and the output of zinc ingots has continued to rise. After the export of previously locked - price zinc ingots ended, the domestic supply pressure of zinc ingots has increased. On the demand side, domestic consumption is gradually entering the peak season, but new terminal orders are limited, and the overall demand expectation is average. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the supply pressure of zinc ingots has increased, but there is still an expectation of inventory reduction during the peak consumption season, so zinc prices may continue to oscillate at a high level. In the long - term, zinc ingot supply will increase, while demand growth is limited, and zinc prices are expected to decline [10]. 3.1.6 Lead - **Viewpoint**: Cost support is stable, and lead prices oscillate. - **Analysis**: On March 9, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,975 yuan/ton; the difference between primary and recycled lead was 50 yuan/ton. The price of 1 lead ingots was 16,550 - 16,650 yuan/ton, with an average of 16,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot premium of Henan lead ingots was - 190 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan/ton increase from the previous day. The social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 73,700 tons, a 4,900 - ton increase from the previous day; the latest warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead were 55,726 tons, a 1,350 - ton increase from the previous day. - **Logic**: In the spot market, the spot premium has slightly increased, the difference between primary and recycled lead has remained stable, and the futures warehouse receipts have increased. On the supply side, the price of waste batteries and lead has remained stable, the smelting profit of recycled lead has remained stable, smelters have gradually resumed production, and the weekly output of lead ingots has increased. On the demand side, at the beginning of the implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles, consumers are more cautious, and orders for electric bicycles have slightly decreased. However, as the traditional consumption peak season approaches, the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises will gradually increase. - **Outlook**: The operating rates of primary and recycled lead smelters are still high, and the output of lead ingots remains high. After the Spring Festival, the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises may gradually increase, but the weak terminal demand pattern remains unchanged, and lead ingot inventories may continue to accumulate. However, the high cost of waste batteries supports lead prices, so lead prices are expected to oscillate [11][13][14]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **Viewpoint**: Policy factors compete with high inventories, and nickel prices oscillate with an upward bias. - **Analysis**: On March 9, the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 53,897 tons, a 329 - ton increase from the previous day; the LME nickel inventory was 287,418 tons, a 132 - ton decrease from the previous day. The price of high - nickel iron in the Chinese market was 1,075 - 1,095 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), a 5 - yuan decrease from March 6. The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources estimated that the nickel production in 2026 would be about 209 million tons, nearly 20% lower than the planned 260 - 270 million tons. The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association said that the revision of the 2026 work plan and budget is expected to be approved in July, and the revised plan may increase the nickel production quota by up to 30%. - **Logic**: On the supply side, the domestic electrolytic nickel output decreased in February, and the output of MIHP and ferronickel in Indonesia also decreased in February, slightly reducing the supply pressure. However, the overall visible inventory remains high, and the key is to observe the realization of peak - season demand. In terms of policy, the downward revision of the 2026 nickel ore quota in Indonesia has significantly adjusted the market's expectation of the nickel balance. - **Outlook**: The current fundamentals of nickel have not improved significantly, and the supply - demand balance in February was still loose. The high LME inventory suppresses prices, and the realization of peak - season demand needs to be observed. The downward revision of the nickel ore quota in Indonesia supports nickel prices. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate with an upward bias, and the progress of relevant Indonesian policies should be continuously monitored [14][15]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: The price of nickel iron has slightly decreased, and the stainless - steel market oscillates. - **Analysis**: On March 9, the stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts were 51,953 tons, a 60 - ton decrease from the previous day. The spot price of Foshan Hongwang 304 was 195 yuan/ton higher than the stainless - steel main contract. The price of high - nickel iron in the Chinese market was 1,075 - 1,095 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), a 5 - yuan decrease from March 6. - **Logic**: The slightly decreased price of nickel iron and the stable chromium price provide some cost support for stainless steel. Due to the Spring Festival holiday in February, the production schedule is expected to decrease significantly month - on - month, but it is expected to increase both year - on - year and month - on - month in March. Terminal demand remains cautious, and the key is to observe the realization of peak - season demand. The social inventory has increased, and the warehouse receipts have also increased marginally. - **Outlook**: The production schedule is expected to decrease in February but increase in March. Terminal demand is cautious, and the realization of peak - season demand needs to be observed. The current fundamentals put pressure on prices, but considering the long - term suppression of industrial chain profits and the support from the ore end, stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate with an upward bias, and the progress of relevant Indonesian policies should be continuously monitored [16][17]. 3.1.9 Tin - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment is weak, and tin prices have corrected. - **Analysis**: On March 9, the LME tin warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 7,775 tons; the Shanghai tin warehouse receipts decreased by 123 tons to 10,124 tons; the Shanghai tin positions decreased by 4,631 lots to 86,498 lots. The average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin ingots was 377,850 yuan/ton, a 19,200 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous day. - **Logic**: Attention should be paid to the recovery of tin supply. Wa State is accelerating the resumption of production in high - grade tin mines in low - altitude areas, and the tin output from Wa State is expected to gradually increase. In Indonesia, the 2026 tin production target is set at 65,860 tons, higher than the previous quota of 60,000 tons, and the supply expectation is loosening. The situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo remains severe, and the supply risk is high. In the future, on the supply side, the tin concentrate processing fee remains low, and the output of refined tin is difficult to increase. On the demand side, the semiconductor industry maintains high growth, and the consumption in new energy vehicles and other fields continues to rise. Considering the need to rebuild the industrial chain inventory, the demand for tin ingots will continue to grow. - **Outlook**: With high supply risks, tin prices are expected to oscillate with an upward bias in the long - term [17]. 3.2行情监测 - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index of CITICS Futures' commodities on March 9, 2026, shows that the commodity index was 2,584.35, a 2.93% increase; the commodity 20 index was 2,937.05, a 2.55% increase; the industrial products index was 2,527.43, a 3.87% increase. - **Sector Index**: The non - ferrous metals index on March 9, 2026, was 2,701.22, with a daily increase of 0.29%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.59%, a 1 - month decrease of 5.40%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.57% [142][144].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 9, equity index futures declined, while most commodities showed high performances, with energy & chemicals leading the raise [10][11][12] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has increased the uncertainty of oil supply reduction and duration, amplifying oil price volatility. Oil prices are expected to trade with a strong sideways bias [16][19] - The conflict between the U.S. and Iran continues to escalate, and geopolitical tensions remain a strong disturbance to heavy oil supply expectations. High-sulfur fuel oil futures are expected to swing widely [22][23][24] - The Europe route remains in a trend of rising both supply and demand, with spot freight rates bottoming out and rebounding. It is expected to trade with a strong sideways bias [29][31] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On March 9, equity index futures declined (IF dropped 1.1%, IH dropped 1.0%), and CGB futures also declined (TL dropped 1.13%, T dropped 0.22%). Most commodity futures rose, with SCFIS(Europe), Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil among the top gainers, and Tin, Palladium, and Platinum among the top decliners [10][11][12] 3.1.2 Daily Raise - **Crude Oil**: On March 9, the crude oil main contract rose 17.0% to 771.8 yuan/barrel. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have increased supply uncertainty. If tensions persist, near-month contracts may have more upside potential; if tensions ease, prices may peak and decline, but it's unlikely to return to pre-conflict levels quickly [16][18][19] - **Fuel Oil**: On March 9, the fuel oil main contract rose 17.0% to 4548 yuan/ton. The U.S.-Iran conflict has escalated, disturbing heavy oil supply expectations. High-sulfur fuel oil futures are expected to swing widely [22][23][24] - **SCFIS(Europe)**: On March 9, the main contract of SCFIS(Europe) rose 20.0% to 2236.4 points. The Europe route is in a supply-demand growth trend, with spot freight rates rebounding. It is expected to trade with a strong sideways bias [28][29][31] 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - In February 2026, China's PPI fell 0.9% YoY (decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points) and rose 0.4% MoM. The CPI rose 1.3% YoY, with urban prices rising 1.4%, rural prices rising 0.9%, etc. G-7 finance ministers will discuss a coordinated release of oil reserves [36] 3.2.2 Trading News - Multiple exchanges issued risk alert letters due to complex and volatile Middle East situation. Exchanges also adjusted price limits, trading margin ratios, trading limits, and trading commissions for various futures contracts [41][51][52]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The recent strength of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is triggered by the Middle - East situation. The report analyzes the situation from three aspects: supply - demand fundamentals, international market linkages, and capital and market sentiment. It also provides outlooks for the market under three different scenarios of the Middle - East situation [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Fluctuations As of 11:30 on March 9, 2026, soybean meal was locked at the daily limit, and rapeseed meal slightly fell from the daily limit. In the afternoon, soybean meal opened the limit, and both soybean and rapeseed meal showed a downward trend [1]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: The import cost of soybeans has risen, there are concerns about supply shortages due to potential delays in Brazilian soybean arrivals and RMB exchange - rate fluctuations. The import cost of Canadian rapeseed has increased due to anti - dumping duties. The crushing profit has been low, resulting in limited soybean meal supply. The downstream replenishment demand has risen as inventories have decreased year - on - year [1]. - **International market linkages**: The CBOT soybean price has risen due to increased biodiesel demand expectations. South American weather conditions may affect soybean production, and overseas rapeseed production may be lower, causing the ICE rapeseed price to rise slightly [1]. - **Capital and market sentiment**: A large amount of long - position capital has flowed into the market, and the market sentiment has been high. Short - term funds in the futures market have chased hot - spot varieties, amplifying price fluctuations [1]. 3.3 Future Market Outlook - **Scenario 1: The Middle - East situation ends within a week**: The upward trend of protein feed may end, or it may rise first and then fall, returning to a volatile state [2]. - **Scenario 2: The Middle - East situation lasts and worsens, ending in 2 - 4 weeks**: Brazilian soybean arrivals may be delayed, and the protein feed will continue to rise, with the soybean meal price expected to be in the range of 3400 - 3600 yuan/ton [2]. - **Scenario 3: The Middle - East situation turns into a long - term war**: Global fertilizer prices may rise, increasing the cost of U.S. soybean planting. The soaring oil price will stimulate biodiesel demand, further pushing up the price of U.S. soybeans. The domestic protein feed price will rise significantly, with the soybean meal price expected to be in the range of 4000 - 4500 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - **For spot enterprises**: Oil mills should focus on basis sales opportunities in March. Soybean meal traders should buy on dips for hedging and sell basis at high levels. Downstream feed and breeding enterprises should also buy on dips for hedging and basis. If there are no positions, buying spot at a fixed price and stockpiling safety inventories is a practical choice [4]. - **For institutional investors**: Buy on dips. If holding long positions, set stop - loss and take - profit levels, and add positions on dips while controlling the position size. Also, buy put options or construct a collar strategy to hedge the risk of sudden price drops [4].

投资咨询号 Consulting No.: Z0022425 从业资格号 Qualification No: F03114737 投资咨询号 Consulting No .: Z0015479 从业资格号 Qualification No: F3074367 从业资格号 Qualification No: F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No .: Z0013632 Prive Movement 价格异动 ngoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have continued to push up energy prices, raising market concerns about aluminum supply. According to Wind data, during the morning session on March 9, prices across the aluminum industry chain showed strong performance. The main alumina futures cont ...

Report Title - The report is titled "【中信期货航运】霍尔木兹海峡日度通行及运价 -- 数据报告" [3] Report Date - The report is dated March 9, 2026 [1] Strait Passage - On August 8, the passage volume in the Strait of Hormuz was 3 vessels, a decrease of 1 vessel from the previous period, remaining at a low level. As of 13:00 on March 8, there were 21 passage records, but many were the same vessel quickly entering and exiting the strait. By 0:00 on March 9, the passage volume had returned to 3 vessels, including 1 liquid bulk carrier flying the Iranian flag [4] VLCC Daily Freight - According to Refinitiv quotes, on March 6, the freight rates from the Middle East to China and from West Africa to China were 14.23 and 13.67 US dollars per barrel respectively, with daily decreases of 1.7% and 2.7% [4] Product Tanker Daily Freight - According to Refinitiv quotes, on March 6, the freight rates from Saudi Ras Tanura to Singapore LR (105kt) and from Saudi Ras Tanura to Yokohama, Japan (105kt) were updated to 7.07 and 12.09 US dollars per barrel respectively, with daily decreases of 12.3% [4] Container Shipping Daily Freight - According to the official website of the Tianjin International Trade and Shipping Service Center, on March 6, the TC1 Tianjin - Persian Gulf basic port freight rate remained flat at 1,852.56 US dollars per FEU, possibly due to short - term shipping stagnation. The Tianjin - European basic port freight rate was 2,699.22 US dollars per FEU, with the index rising 8.3% from the previous day. The freight rates from Tianjin to the Western Mediterranean and Eastern Mediterranean basic ports were 3,635.22 and 3,858.22 US dollars per FEU respectively, with the indices rising 7.6% and 3.8% from the previous day [4]