中信期货 36 33 1300 30 1250 27 24 1200 21 1150 18 1100 15 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 美国原油产量(万桶/日) 2023 2024 2022 2025 =2026 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 EIA周度数据:炼厂加速降负,汽柴累库放缓 | 2026年1月29日 | 能源化工组 李云旭 | 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格: | 从业资格号 | 和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会 因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场 | | 证监许可【2012】669号 | F03141405 | 有风险,投资需谨慎。 | | | 投资咨询号 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, the current situation is a combination of "weak reality, stable policies, and strong expectations." The recovery of domestic demand is slow, and the support for risk - assets from the domestic fundamentals is limited in the short - term. Overseas, the macro - environment is still favorable for the resilience of risk - assets, but policy uncertainty is increasing, leading to greater differentiation in asset pricing. In terms of asset allocation, it is recommended to over - allocate long positions in domestic mid - cap style equities, specifically the CSI 500 stock index futures; maintain a neutral stance on national bonds and standard - allocate long positions in 2 - year national bond futures; standard - allocate long positions in precious metals; over - allocate long positions in non - ferrous metals; and adopt a range - trading strategy for the black sector [14]. - For different sectors, most varieties are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, with some showing a volatile upward or downward trend [15][17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial Market Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: On January 28, 2026, the CSI 300 futures price was 4,732.8, with a daily increase of 0.14%, a weekly increase of 0.5%, and a monthly increase of 2.89%. The Shanghai 50 futures price was 3,069.8, with a daily increase of 0.01%, a weekly increase of 1.05%, and a monthly increase of 1.48%. The CSI 500 futures price was 8,622, with a daily increase of 0.62%, a weekly decrease of 0.42%, and a monthly increase of 17.1%. The CSI 1000 futures price was 8,377.8, with a daily increase of 0.1%, a weekly decrease of 1.63%, and a monthly increase of 12.66% [2]. - **National Bond Futures**: The 2 - year national bond futures price was 102.394, with a daily increase of 0.01%, a weekly decrease of 0.02%, and a monthly decrease of 0.06%. The 5 - year national bond futures price was 105.87, with a daily increase of 0.05%, a weekly decrease of 0.01%, and a monthly increase of 0.1%. The 10 - year national bond futures price was 108.21, with a daily increase of 0.03%, a weekly increase of 0.01%, and a monthly increase of 0.32%. The 30 - year national bond futures price was 112.09, with a daily increase of 0.07%, a weekly decrease of 0.19%, and a monthly increase of 0.61% [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was 95.7725, with a daily decrease of 1.32%, a weekly decrease of 1.78%, and a monthly decrease of 2.54%. The US dollar central parity rate was 6.9545 pips, with a daily increase of 3, a weekly decrease of 87, and a monthly decrease of 345 [2]. 2. Fluctuations in Popular Industries - On January 28, 2026, among various industries, non - ferrous metals had the highest daily increase of 6.02%, with a weekly increase of 10.59% and a monthly increase of 31.19%. The defense and military industry had a daily decrease of 1.71%, a weekly decrease of 4.62%, and a monthly increase of 7.96%. The banking industry had a daily decrease of 0.63%, a weekly decrease of 0.33%, and a monthly decrease of 7.3% [5]. 3. Fluctuations in Overseas Commodities - **Energy**: On January 27, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil was priced at $62.57, with a daily increase of 3.2%, a weekly increase of 2.11%, and a monthly increase of 8.99%. ICE Brent crude oil was priced at $66.76, with a daily increase of 3.07%, a weekly increase of 2.02%, and a monthly increase of 9.6% [8]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold was priced at $5,179.6, with a daily increase of 1.91%, a weekly increase of 3.94%, and a monthly increase of 19.56%. COMEX silver was priced at $112.345, with a daily decrease of 2.74%, a weekly increase of 8.8%, and a monthly increase of 58.28% [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: LME copper was priced at $13,006.5, with a daily decrease of 1.46%, a weekly decrease of 0.93%, and a monthly increase of 4.08%. LME aluminum was priced at $3,207, with a daily increase of 0.58%, a weekly increase of 1.06%, and a monthly increase of 7.01% [8]. 4. Macro Highlights - **Domestic Macro**: The current domestic macro - situation is a combination of "weak reality, stable policies, and strong expectations." The recovery of domestic demand is slow, price levels remain low, and credit repair mainly relies on the government and policy tools. The policy is in an observation and verification stage, and the improvement in physical work and demand is more likely to be concentrated in the first quarter. In the short - term, the direct support from domestic fundamentals for risk - assets is limited [14]. - **Overseas Macro**: Overseas, the demand is weakening marginally, inflation is falling slowly, and policy uncertainty is increasing. The US consumption has some resilience, but its internal driving force is weakening. The core inflation is cooling, but the decline is not smooth. The market's focus has shifted to the expectation of the Fed's leadership change, increasing policy uncertainty [14]. - **Large - scale Assets**: It is recommended to over - allocate long positions in domestic mid - cap style equities (CSI 500 stock index futures), standard - allocate long positions in 2 - year national bond futures, standard - allocate long positions in precious metals, over - allocate long positions in non - ferrous metals, and adopt a range - trading strategy for the black sector [14]. 5. Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to fluctuate upwards, stock index options are expected to fluctuate, and national bond futures are expected to fluctuate [15]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to fluctuate upwards, but short - term volatility risks should be noted [15]. - **Shipping Sector**: Container shipping on European routes is expected to fluctuate [15]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, etc. are expected to fluctuate, with some showing a volatile upward or downward trend [15]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to fluctuate, with some showing a volatile upward trend, such as copper, aluminum, nickel, etc. [15]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Most energy and chemical varieties are expected to fluctuate, and some agricultural products such as corn/starch, live pigs, etc. are expected to fluctuate downwards, while cotton is expected to fluctuate upwards [17]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Most agricultural products are expected to fluctuate, with some showing a volatile upward or downward trend [17].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2026-01-29 美伊关系⾛向仍有不确定，原油及化⼯ 延续震荡整理 美伊关系可能面临重大变化，原油价格近期将维持较高波动率。彭博 报道，1月28日美国总统特朗普警告伊朗，与美国达成协议的时间已经所 剩不多，并表示一支进入该地区的美国军舰编队已准备好"以速度和迅猛 之势"完成任务；特朗普表示，伊朗回到谈判桌前，就一项"公平公正的 协议——不能有核武器"展开谈判。伊朗日产原油330万桶，所在区域也 是诸多产油国云集，美伊和谈或是决裂将成为原油市场短期走势的关键。 原油短期供给端也受到了一些天气端的扰动，主要在北美区域。投资者以 震荡思路对待油价。（上述信息均来自彭博终端。） 板块逻辑： 化工产业链整体延续震荡格局。当前化工产业链尚不能说空头力量云 集的一个重要原因是，下游也出现了价格的同步抬升，这种涨幅可能不及 盘面的原料，但也能勉强跟随，这表现在聚酯、苯乙烯和聚烯烃的下游。 化工中格局偏弱的是甲醇，当前占据甲醇需求50%的MTO装置开工位于五年 最低，甲醇港口库存位于五年最高，而冬季即将过去，伊朗停车的装置也 将在2-3月间重启 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2026-1-29 鸽派预期再定价，⾦价加速创历史新⾼ 对更鸽派、独⽴性边际弱化的美联储预期持续升温，叠加主权债与货币避 险需求外溢，推动贵⾦属再度加速上⾏。⻩⾦在配置资⾦主导下突破关键 整数位并放量⾛⾼；⽩银跟随放⼤弹性，但交易与波动⻛险同步抬升，结 构分化进⼀步显现。 黄金观点：趋势性上行延续并再创新高，货币政策预期与避险配置形 成共振，短期关注波动率抬升。 逻辑：市场对未来货币政策更趋宽松的再定价持续推进，围绕下一任 美联储主席的鸽派预期升温，强化无息资产吸引力。与此同时，主权 债与货币承压、地缘不确定性抬升，资金加速流向黄金等避险资产， 推动金价上破5400美元/盎司并放量上行。配置端与期权端同步反映 对上行风险的定价意愿，黄金在贵金属中继续体现低波动、强趋势特 征。 （以上新闻和数据均来自彭博终端） 展望：在货币政策预期、避险配置与去信用化叙事共振下，黄金中期 逻辑稳固。短期或伴随波动率抬升与获利回吐，但回调阶段仍具配置 吸引力。 白银观点：高弹性上涨延续但波动显著放大，交易层面约束上升，短 期更偏震荡消化。 逻辑： 白银 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2026-01-29 淡季驱动有限，盘⾯震荡运⾏ 钢⼚复产节奏偏缓，铁矿⽯⾼发运⾼库存压制盘⾯估值。焦炭⾸轮提 涨即将落地，节前焦煤供应存在收紧预期，盘⾯低位企稳。淡季钢材 端累库压⼒渐显，基本⾯缺乏亮点，但负反馈预期暂⽆，盘⾯震荡运 ⾏。玻璃需求仍有韧性，纯碱下游补库延续，盘⾯存在低位反弹迹 象，但玻璃纯碱供需过剩继续限制盘⾯上⽅空间。 钢厂复产节奏偏缓，铁矿石高发运高库存压制盘面估值。焦炭首轮提 涨即将落地，节前焦煤供应存在收紧预期，盘面低位企稳。淡季钢材 端累库压力渐显，基本面缺乏亮点，但负反馈预期暂无，盘面震荡运 行。玻璃需求仍有韧性，纯碱下游补库延续，盘面存在低位反弹迹 象，但玻璃纯碱供需过剩继续限制盘面上方空间。 1. 铁元素方面：到港减量，短期供应压力稍缓，库存压力仍在增 加，天气影响供应端仍存扰动预期，需求端节前补库支撑矿价，现实 方面供需两端仍有待验证。废钢供应平稳，日耗有下降预期，整体基 本面将边际转弱，预计现货价格跟随成材。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭成本端支撑坚挺，且钢厂复产预期仍在，冬储 补库需求仍存，焦炭供 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2026-01-29 市场围绕通胀布局 股指期货：围绕通胀线进攻 股指期权：波动下⾏信号未现 国债期货：债市情绪回暖 股指期货方面，周三权益市场走势相对平淡，多数宽基指数上行，但 整体波动幅度并不大，风格层面呈现红利领涨，小微盘偏弱的格局。行业 维度，近期大宗异动的背景之下，贵金属、基本金属、油化工、煤炭等领 域领涨，资金围绕通胀主线进行布局，同时医药、传媒、军工偏向主题概 念的成长板块弱势。资金维度或许可以解释近期风格，由于机构定价权强 化，景气度策略再度起效，此时偏向涨价的方向易获得机构资金增持，故 在通胀抬升宏观信心的背景下，建议继续配置IC多单，但上行斜率预计偏 缓。 股指期权方面，昨日标的市场日内震荡，多数品种收涨，乐观情绪延 续，中证500涨幅相对较大。期权市场成交量维持在下行通道中，但流动 性整体仍较好。情绪指标我们仍然重点关注本周低位的偏度指数，昨日相 较前一日无太大变化，表明买方市场结构上认购力量还是相对偏强；另 外，持仓量PCR方面不同风格出现较大分歧，50ETF、300ETF等位于近一个 季度低位，而500 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2026-1-29 棉价增仓上涨，关注前高压力 油脂：油脂高位震荡 蛋白粕：双粕跟随外盘走高，关注阿根廷天气变化 玉米/淀粉：价格偏弱震荡 生猪：猪源充裕，价格弱势 天然橡胶：关注前高压力 合成橡胶：板块氛围回暖带动盘面反弹 棉花：棉价增仓上涨，关注前高压力 白糖：糖价窄幅波动 纸浆：基本面弱势，盘面陷入横向波动 双胶纸：现货持稳，盘面区间运行 原木：基本面边际好转，原木短期偏强震荡 【异动品种】 棉花观点：棉价增仓上涨，关注前⾼压⼒ 信息：根据万得，1.28，郑棉05合约收于14940元/吨，环比+375元/吨； 25/26年度10209张，环比+4张。 逻辑：昨日郑棉主力合约增仓上涨，增仓近3.6万手。近期基本面整体变 化不大，更多为盘面技术性调整后，下方支撑逐步夯实，情绪好转吸引资 金推动上涨。基本面方面整体较为健康，新棉公检处于收尾阶段，本年度 累计进口量仍处于偏低水平，棉花商业库存累库速度不快，表需较好。临 近春节，下游原料采购备货增加，但开机率季节性下降。我们对中长期看 法维持偏强，核心驱动为两点，25/26年度中国棉花供 ...

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2024 202-6/01/2 10-099 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: 2026 Tax Reform to Be Further Advanced From CLS. Futures Prices: On Jan 2 ...

地缘扰动叠加美元走弱，铂钯延续震荡 据同花顺数据，截⾄2026年1⽉26⽇收盘，GFEX铂主⼒合约收盘价694.8 元/克，跌幅-0.17%；GFEX钯主⼒合约收盘价为504元/克，跌幅- 1.80%。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2026-01-29 铂观点：地缘风险扰动叠加美元走弱，铂金高位震荡 主要逻辑：据新华社华盛顿1月26日消息，美国总统特朗普称已派遣舰队 到中东地区，中东局势依旧紧张。此外日元走强对美元汇率构成下行压 力，这对铂价形成一定支撑。短期铂价或延续震荡偏强走势，可关注择机 低吸做多机会。然而新任美联储新任主席提名、美国对铂钯关税预期同样 是近期影响市场的关键因素，短期不确定性仍存，需警惕价格波动加大风 险，建议投资者做好仓位控制。展望未来，供给方面，南非作为全球铂族 金属的主要供应国，未来仍存在电力供应以及极端天气风险。需求方面， 铂金市场整体处于结构性扩张阶段，汽车催化剂领域需求保持相对稳定， 氢能产业为未来重要增长点，首饰和投资需求扩张，同时"降息+软着 陆"组合将进一步放大远期价格弹性。 展望：震荡偏强。供需基本面健康叠加宏观预期向 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2026-1-28 ⾦银⾼位震荡运⾏，波动⻛险加剧 ⻩⾦⾼位运⾏，避险与配置需求⽀撑其强势；⽩银在快速拉涨后进⼊⾼位 震荡，短期需警惕⾼波动下的回撤⻛险。两者均受宏观避险情绪主导，但 ⽩银受⼯业需求与资⾦获利了结影响更易出现波动。（以上新闻和数据均 来⾃彭博终端） 黄金观点 高位运行保持韧性，避险与配置属性占优，短期关注风险事件对波动 的放大效应。 逻辑： 在贵金属整体成为市场焦点的背景下，黄金在高位区间内获 得较强支撑。亚洲时段，受特朗普针对韩国关税言论影响，区域市场 不确定性上升，权益资产承压，黄金与白银小幅走高，体现避险需求 边际回流。相较其他贵金属，黄金价格运行更为平稳，波动率明显低 于白银，配置型资金重新将黄金视为优先选择，支撑其在高位维持强 势。 （以上新闻和数据均来自彭博终端） 展望： 在全球不确定性上升、风险偏好反复切换的环境下，黄金的 避险与配置价值仍具韧性。短期关注地缘与贸易政策扰动带来的波动 放大风险，但中期支撑逻辑未改。 白银观点 快速拉升后进入节奏修复阶段，价格弹性仍在，但高波动状态下回撤 风险上升。 宏观 ...