1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating, with a high probability of continuing to strengthen in the medium - term [5] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [6] - **Corn/Starch**: Oscillating weakly [7] - **Pigs**: Oscillating at a low level [8] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating strongly in the short - term [11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating following natural rubber [12] - **Cotton**: Oscillating strongly in the short - term, with potential downward pressure after new cotton is listed in large quantities [12] - **Sugar**: Oscillating, with long - term downward drive [14] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [16] - **Logs**: Oscillating weakly [18] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various agricultural products, including their current market conditions, influencing factors, and future price trends. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, weather, trade relations, and policies to make short - term and medium - term forecasts for each product. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Outlook - **Oils and Fats**: Short - term adjustment may be needed, with attention to the effectiveness of technical support below. Medium - term, it is likely to continue strengthening due to factors such as increased overseas biodiesel demand, potential reduction in US soybean yield, limited import of Canadian rapeseeds, and the approaching palm oil production reduction season [5] - **Protein Meal**: The market continues to oscillate. International soybean prices are affected by weather and trade relations, while domestic prices are influenced by supply and demand and trade relations [6][7] - **Corn/Starch**: Traders are pre - stocking, so the sentiment should not be overly pessimistic. Short - term, it is recommended to stop losses on previous short positions. Long - term, there is a low - absorption idea for far - month contracts [7][8] - **Pigs**: Supply is expected to be abundant, and the market is oscillating at a low level. Short - term, group farms' slaughter has shrunk at the end of the month, but overall supply is still sufficient. Medium - term, the number of piglets born from January to July indicates an increasing trend in pig slaughter in the second half of the year [8] - **Natural Rubber**: Rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, supported by seasonal factors, potential reduction in short - term ship arrivals, and stable demand [11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market follows natural rubber and oscillates. Short - term, butadiene prices may rise slightly, and the market is expected to oscillate strongly [12] - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton has significantly reduced its positions, and cotton prices have fallen within the range. Short - term, it is expected to oscillate strongly, but there is resistance to upward movement. After new cotton is listed in large quantities, prices may face downward pressure [12] - **Sugar**: There is a downward drive, but the short - term downward space is limited. New - season supply is expected to be abundant, so prices may decline in the long - term [14] - **Pulp**: After hitting a new low, it has continued to rebound. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [15] - **Logs**: Supply - demand pressure is not significant, and logs are operating within a range. Consider trying to go long on far - month contracts at low prices within the range [18] 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Oils and Fats**: Trade relations, biodiesel demand, crude oil prices, and overseas macro - environment [5] - **Protein Meal**: US soybean weather, Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade relations, and downstream demand [7] - **Corn/Starch**: Weather, policies, wheat substitution, and geopolitical factors [8] - **Pigs**: Breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [8] - **Natural Rubber**: Macro - environment, weather [11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Crude oil price fluctuations [12] - **Cotton**: Macro - environment, demand, and new cotton acquisition price expectations [12] - **Sugar**: Weather in domestic main producing areas, Brazilian port logistics, weather in the Northern Hemisphere, and macro - economy [14] - **Pulp**: US dollar - denominated quotes, macro - economic expectations [17] - **Logs**: Real estate demand, spot liquidity, international trade relations, and capital factors [20] 3.3 Specific Data - **Oils and Fats**: ITS data shows that Malaysian palm oil exports in August increased by 10.2% month - on - month, and SPPOMA data shows that the production from August 1 - 25 decreased by 1.21% month - on - month [5] - **Protein Meal**: On September 1, 2025, the international soybean trade premium quotes were: US Gulf soybeans at 235 cents/bushel, down 5 cents/bushel or 2.08% week - on - week; US West soybeans at 175 cents/bushel, unchanged week - on - week; South American soybeans at 275 cents/bushel, up 6 cents/bushel or 2.23% week - on - week [6] - **Corn/Starch**: According to Mysteel, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2290 yuan/ton, unchanged; the domestic average corn price is 2352 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract is 2191 yuan/ton, up 0.27% [7] - **Pigs**: On September 1, the price of live pigs (external ternary) in Henan was 14.17 yuan/kg, unchanged; the closing price of live pig futures (active contract) was 13625 yuan/ton, up 0.52% [8] - **Cotton**: As of September 1, the number of registered warrants in the 24/25 season was 6320. Zhengzhou cotton 09 closed at 13595 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan/ton; Zhengzhou cotton 01 closed at 14025 yuan/ton, down 215 yuan/ton [12] - **Sugar**: As of September 1, the Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract closed at 5623 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton; the Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5609 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton [14] - **Pulp**: According to Zhuochuang Information, the price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong was 5090 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; Pacific pulp was 5450 yuan/ton, unchanged; Silver Star pulp was 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged; Shandong Goldfish pulp was 4190 yuan/ton, unchanged [15] - **Logs**: The new foreign CFR quotes are FFP at 115 US dollars and PFP at 118 US dollars, with FFP down 2 US dollars [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides individual outlooks for each energy and chemical product, with most being advised to be treated with a "sideways" approach, suggesting an overall "sideways" view for the oil - chemical industry [4]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall domestic energy and chemical products continue to trade sideways. Some products like asphalt are strong, while others such as styrene are facing significant inventory pressure and are declining [2][3]. - The supply pressure in the crude oil market persists, and the price is expected to trade sideways with a downward bias, influenced by geopolitical risks and OPEC+ production policies [4][9]. - For each product, specific factors such as inventory levels, production, demand, and geopolitical events are driving their price movements and market trends [4]. 3. Summary by Product Category Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Supply pressure continues, and the price is expected to trade sideways with a downward bias. Geopolitical disturbances should be closely monitored [4][9]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ production increases lead to a hard - to - reverse oversupply expectation. US production shows resilience, and future crude oil inventories face pressure from the peak - to - decline of refinery operations and OPEC+ accelerated production increases. Geopolitical events like Houthi attacks on oil tankers support the geopolitical premium [9]. Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical premium drives the asphalt futures price to break through the 3500 pressure level [10]. - **Main Logic**: Concerns over potential US sanctions on Venezuela and the interruption of asphalt raw material supply drive up the futures price. However, the narrowing supply - demand gap and weak demand suggest that the high valuation of asphalt may not be sustainable [10]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Follows the upward movement of crude oil [4]. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical events in the Middle East and between the US and Venezuela increase the geopolitical premium. However, factors such as increased inventory and weak demand limit its upward potential [11]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Follows the sideways movement of crude oil [4]. - **Main Logic**: Faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur fuel substitution. It has a low valuation and is expected to move with crude oil [12]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: There is still an expectation of shutdowns in the far - month contracts, and the futures price rebounds [4]. - **Main Logic**: The market experiences a decline followed by a rebound. Supply recovery and weak demand lead to the initial decline, while far - month shutdown expectations drive the rebound. The downstream olefin fundamentals provide limited support [28]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: The market is currently weak but is expected to strengthen after the Indian tender is finalized [4]. - **Main Logic**: The market is waiting for the Indian tender. Once it is finalized, factors such as supply reduction, expected increase in autumn demand, and potential export opportunities are expected to drive the price up [29]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Viewpoint**: The arrival volume in early September is low, and there is still room for a decline in port inventory [4]. - **Main Logic**: With less volume arriving at ports in early September, port inventory continues to decline. Cost support is weak, but low inventory provides some price support [20][21]. PX - **Viewpoint**: The delayed restart of the plant has limited positive effects. Macroeconomic and cost factors are the main disturbances [4]. - **Main Logic**: Cost support is insufficient, and the supply pressure is expected to increase in the medium - to - long - term due to plant restarts and new capacity. Downstream demand provides limited support [14]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: The delayed restart of the plant and mediocre demand result in limited price drivers [4]. - **Main Logic**: Cost support is weak, and the delayed restart of the plant has limited positive effects. The overall supply - demand pattern is okay, and the price is expected to follow cost and macro - sentiment fluctuations [15]. Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: There is an expectation of plant restart, and the demand needs further verification [4]. - **Main Logic**: The price follows the movement of upstream costs. Supply remains high, and some plants are planning to restart. Downstream demand is average, and the sustainability of demand needs to be observed [22][23]. Bottle - Chip - **Viewpoint**: The production cut in September remains at 20% and can be expanded to 30% if necessary [4]. - **Main Logic**: The cost is fluctuating, and the supply - side plant maintenance supports the market. However, downstream demand is weak, and the price mainly follows cost fluctuations [23][26]. PP - **Viewpoint**: The support from maintenance is limited, and it trades sideways with a downward bias [4]. - **Main Logic**: News of plant overhauls has limited real impact. Supply continues to increase, and although there is some improvement in demand, the overall outlook is still weak [32][33]. Propylene (PL) - **Viewpoint**: Temporarily follows the movement of PP [4]. - **Main Logic**: External supply is restricted, and downstream demand is good. The price mainly follows PP in the short term, and the PP - PL processing fee is a key focus [33]. Plastic - **Viewpoint**: Attention should be paid to the peak - season demand, and it trades sideways in the short term [4]. - **Main Logic**: News of plant overhauls has limited real impact. The price is affected by oil price fluctuations, macro - sentiment, and supply - demand factors. It is necessary to monitor downstream demand [30][31]. Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: The port will resume inventory accumulation, and the price trades sideways with a downward bias [4]. - **Main Logic**: More naphtha buyers are seeking October shipments, and the supply of naphtha is expected to tighten. However, the increase in pure benzene imports and weak downstream demand suggest a potential supply - surplus situation [16][19]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: The inventory pressure is prominent, and the price continues to decline [4]. - **Main Logic**: The decline is due to the weakening of anti - over - competition sentiment and the poor fundamentals. High inventory levels and weak demand in the downstream market contribute to the price drop [19][20]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: Weak market conditions suppress the price, and it trades weakly [4]. - **Main Logic**: Macro - policies have not been implemented, and the fundamentals are under pressure. Factors such as reduced production in September, weak demand, and potential anti - dumping measures affect the price [36]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The spot price rebound slows down, and the market is on the sidelines for now [4]. - **Main Logic**: Macro - policies have not been implemented, and the fundamentals are improving marginally. However, factors such as the expected increase in alumina production in the future and the current slowdown in the spot price rebound lead to a wait - and - see attitude [36][37]. 4. Product Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - Period Spread**: Different products have different inter - period spread values and changes, which reflect the market's expectations for different time periods of each product [38]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipt data of each product show the relationship between the spot and futures prices and the inventory situation [39]. - **Inter - Product Spread**: The inter - product spread data reflect the relative price relationships between different products, which can be used for arbitrage analysis and market trend judgment [41]. Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report also provides basis and spread data for specific products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., which help in analyzing the price relationships and market trends of these products [42][55][67].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Oscillating [6] - Alumina: Oscillating weakly [7] - Aluminum: Oscillating [10] - Aluminum Alloy: Oscillating at a high level [11] - Zinc: Oscillating weakly [13] - Lead: Oscillating [14] - Nickel: Oscillating strongly [16] - Stainless Steel: Oscillating [22] - Tin: Oscillating [23] 2. Core Views of the Report - The weak US dollar and the fermentation of reverse invoicing issues have pushed non - ferrous metals back to the upper edge of the recent range. In the short - to - medium term, the weak US dollar and supply disturbances support prices, while weak terminal demand expectations limit the upside. In the long term, potential incremental stimulus policies in China and supply disturbances in copper, aluminum, and tin support non - ferrous metal prices [1]. - Different non - ferrous metal varieties have different price trends and influencing factors. For example, copper prices are supported by macro factors and supply disturbances; alumina prices are under pressure due to over - supply; aluminum prices are affected by supply, demand, and inventory; and so on [6][7][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Information Analysis: The Fed's potential September rate - cut and the resilience of the US economy boost copper prices. In August, China's electrolytic copper production decreased slightly year - on - year. The spot price showed a premium, and the inventory increased. The processing fees of copper ore and blister copper are low, and the raw material supply is tight. The cost and difficulty of scrap copper recycling have increased, and some smelters may reduce production [6]. - Main Logic: Macro factors and supply disturbances support copper prices. The downstream demand was in the off - season, and the inventory accumulation was not obvious. Low inventory supports copper prices in the short term [6]. - Outlook: Copper supply constraints remain, and the inventory is low. However, the US copper tariff is not conducive to the Shanghai copper price. Copper is expected to oscillate [7]. Alumina - Information Analysis: On September 1, the spot price of alumina in most regions was stable, while that in Xinjiang decreased. Some alumina enterprises in Shanxi reduced production due to ore shortages. The winning bid price of a tender in Xinjiang decreased, and the railway freight in Shandong changed. The alumina warehouse receipts increased [7][8]. - Main Logic: The high - profit margin of smelters has shrunk, but the raw materials are relatively abundant. The operating capacity is at a high level, and the supply is in excess. The warehouse receipts and inbound volume have increased, and the price is expected to be under pressure. However, short - term supply capacity fluctuations and medium - to - long - term mine disturbances need attention [8]. - Outlook: The price is expected to oscillate weakly. Consider short - selling on rallies and pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities [10]. Aluminum - Information Analysis: On September 1, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased. The warehouse receipts of electrolytic aluminum on the SHFE decreased. An Indonesian Chinese - funded electrolytic aluminum enterprise plans to put into production. The performance of some listed aluminum companies was released [10][11]. - Main Logic: The short - term US rate - cut expectation increases, and the US dollar is weak. The supply capacity is increasing, and the demand is expected to improve, but the terminal consumption is not strong. The inventory is accumulating, and the spot discount is widening. The aluminum price is expected to oscillate [11]. - Outlook: Observe the short - term consumption and inventory accumulation. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [11]. Aluminum Alloy - Information Analysis: On September 1, the price of Baotai ADC12 was stable, and the price difference between Baotai ADC12 and AOO aluminum changed. The SHFE adjusted the margin and price limit of cast aluminum alloy futures. The performance of some listed companies was released [11][12]. - Main Logic: The cost is supported by scrap aluminum. The supply decreased during the off - season, and some recycling plants reduced production due to policy changes. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement. The inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [12][13]. - Outlook: In the short term, ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 are oscillating at a low level. There is room for an increase in the future, and cross - variety arbitrage can be considered [13]. Zinc - Information Analysis: On September 1, the spot price of zinc showed a discount. The inventory of zinc ingots increased. A smelter in Guangxi plans to stop production for maintenance due to raw material supply interruption [13]. - Main Logic: The macro environment is slightly negative. The short - term zinc ore supply is loose, and the smelter's profitability is good. The domestic consumption is in the off - season, and the demand is weak. The zinc price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term and decline in the medium - to - long term [14]. - Outlook: In September, the zinc ingot production will remain high, and the demand recovery is limited. The inventory may continue to accumulate. The zinc price is expected to oscillate weakly [14]. Lead - Information Analysis: On September 1, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries and the price difference between primary and secondary lead were stable. The spot price of lead ingots was stable, and the warehouse receipts decreased. The traditional peak season of the lead - acid battery market was average, and the transportation was restricted in some regions, affecting the inventory [14][15]. - Main Logic: The spot discount and the price difference between primary and secondary lead are stable. The supply of lead decreased slightly, and the demand is in the transition period between the off - season and peak season. The demand for lead ingots is stable [15][16]. - Outlook: The macro environment is positive. The supply may tighten slightly this week, and the demand is stable. However, the release of accumulated lead ingots after the end of transportation restrictions may put pressure on the price. The lead price is expected to oscillate [16]. Nickel - Information Analysis: On September 1, the LME nickel inventory increased, and the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased. Some nickel - related projects and policy changes were reported, such as a new nickel and copper refinery in Tanzania and the change of RKAB approval in Indonesia [16][17][18]. - Main Logic: The market sentiment dominates the market. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. The ore supply may be loose after the rainy season. The production of intermediate products has recovered, and the nickel salt price has declined slightly. The inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to oscillate. Use a short - term trading strategy [21]. - Outlook: The equity market is strong, and the expected RKAB approval in Indonesia in mid - September will make the nickel price oscillate strongly in the short term. Take a wait - and - see attitude in the long term [21]. Stainless Steel - Information Analysis: The stainless steel futures warehouse receipts decreased. The spot price showed a premium. The production and logistics in the nickel industry chain in Indonesia were not affected by the demonstrations [22]. - Main Logic: The prices of nickel iron and chromium iron are stable. The stainless steel production increased in August. Pay attention to the demand during the peak season. The inventory decreased slightly, and the structural over - supply pressure has eased [22]. - Outlook: Be wary of the possible expansion of production cuts by steel mills. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term. Pay attention to inventory and cost changes [22]. Tin - Information Analysis: On September 1, the LME tin warehouse receipts increased, and the SHFE tin warehouse receipts decreased. The spot price of tin decreased. The supply of tin ore is tight [23]. - Main Logic: The resumption of production in Wa State does not change the tight supply of tin ore in China. The export of refined tin in Indonesia decreased, and the production and export in Africa are unstable. The supply is tight, supporting the tin price. The terminal demand has weakened, and the inventory reduction is difficult [23]. - Outlook: The tin price is supported by the tight supply of ore. It is expected to oscillate, and the volatility may increase in August [23].

Report Investment Rating - The outlook for stock index futures is "shockingly bullish," for stock index options is "shockingly," and for Treasury bond futures is "shockingly bearish" [7][8][9] Core Viewpoints - Stock index futures are moving upward due to inertia, with the ChiNext and STAR Market indices leading the gains. A-shares are deviating from the trend of the Asia-Pacific stock market, and the CSI 2000 has underperformed the CSI 1000 in the past two weeks. The turnover rate of the Wind All A Index is approaching a relatively high level, and it may be better to shift to small and micro-cap stocks in September [7]. - The optimism in the stock index options market is waning, with trading volume and implied volatility both dropping. The market sentiment remains positive, but the trading pace has slowed down. It is advisable to set appropriate stop-profit and stop-loss points and re-anchor trading levels [8]. - The performance of the Treasury bond futures market depends on the stock market. Although the stock market was strong yesterday, the bond market also showed an upward trend, and the bullish sentiment may have recovered. The market is concerned about a potential short-term adjustment in the stock market, which could boost the bullish sentiment in the bond market. The bond market should be approached with caution [3][9]. Summary by Directory Market Views Stock Index Futures - The basis of the current contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM closed at -13.11, -1.60, -95.49, and -120.55 points respectively, with a month-on-month change of -22.55, -5.13, -48.35, and -48.47 points. The spreads between the current and next-month contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 7.6, 1.6, 51.6, and 66.4 points respectively, with a month-on-month change of 2.2, -1.6, 3.0, and 4.8 points. The total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM changed by -16713, -11062, -12442, and -12786 lots respectively [7]. - The market moved upward due to inertia yesterday, with the ChiNext and STAR Market indices leading the gains. Metal materials, electronics, and healthcare sectors had significant increases, while the large financial sector was relatively weak. A-shares are deviating from the Asia-Pacific stock market, and the CSI 2000 has underperformed the CSI 1000 in the past two weeks. The turnover rate of the Wind All A Index is approaching a relatively high level, and it may be better to shift to small and micro-cap stocks in September. It is recommended to hold IM [7]. Stock Index Options - The trading volume of each option variety decreased by 33.31%, and the liquidity of all varieties declined consistently. The implied volatility of options decreased by an average of 2.55%. It is speculated that the decline in volatility is mainly due to the closing of long option positions, rather than the suppression of short option positions. The average position PCR increased by 1.08%, indicating that the sentiment remains positive, but the trading pace has slowed down. It is advisable to set appropriate stop-profit and stop-loss points and re-anchor trading levels. A small amount of covered call strategy is recommended [8]. Treasury Bond Futures - The trading volumes of the next-quarter contracts of T, TF, TS, and TL were 84189, 60563, 25178, and 121725 lots respectively, with a one-day change of 10472, 4284, -8257, and -19489 lots. The positions were 185116, 113156, 67204, and 125481 lots respectively, with a one-day change of 7482, -145, 605, and 4819 lots. The spreads between the current and next-quarter contracts of T, TF, TS, and TL were 0.300, 0.105, -0.080, and 0.410 yuan respectively, with a one-day change of 0.060, -0.045, -0.010, and -0.100 yuan. The spreads between TF*2-T, TS*2-TF, TS*4-T, and T*3-TL of the next-quarter contracts were 103.190, 99.277, 301.744, and 207.090 yuan respectively, with a one-day change of -0.030, -0.044, -0.118, and 0.210 yuan. The basis of the next-quarter contracts of T, TF, TS, and TL were 0.340, 0.021, -0.048, and 0.549 yuan respectively, with a one-day change of -0.109, -0.032, -0.009, and -0.178 yuan. The central bank conducted 1827 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchases yesterday, with 2884 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing [8]. - Treasury bond futures rose across the board yesterday. The T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts rose 0.17%, 0.08%, 0.02%, and 0.30% respectively. The T main contract opened lower in the morning but then rebounded quickly and showed an upward trend throughout the day. The PMI data in August showed a slight increase, and the equity market continued to be strong yesterday. The bond market sentiment was weak in the morning, but the stock-bond seesaw effect weakened during the day. The bond market also showed an upward trend, and the bullish sentiment may have recovered. The market is concerned about a potential short-term adjustment in the stock market, which could boost the bullish sentiment in the bond market. Although the central bank net withdrew 105.7 billion yuan from the open market on the first day of September, the liquidity in the money market was relatively loose, and the money market rates declined. DR001 and DR007 dropped to 1.31% and 1.45% respectively. In the future, although the stock-bond seesaw effect was not obvious yesterday, it is still necessary to closely monitor the performance of the stock market and the risk appetite. The bond market should be approached with caution. Trend strategy: Be cautiously bullish. Hedging strategy: Pay attention to short hedging at low basis levels. Basis strategy: Pay attention to long-end arbitrage opportunities. Curve strategy: Appropriate attention can be paid to the steepening of the yield curve [3][9]. Economic Calendar - The economic data to be released this week includes the eurozone's unemployment rate, CPI, core CPI, PPI, the US ISM manufacturing PMI, ADP employment, and new ADP employment [10]. Important Information and News Tracking - From July 1 to August 31, the national railway carried a total of 943 million passengers, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%, and the national railway carried a total of 702 million tons of goods, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%. Both passenger and freight volumes reached record highs for the same period [11]. - At the end of the SCO Tianjin Summit on September 1, 2025, Wang Yi, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Minister of Foreign Affairs, introduced the eight achievements of the summit, including formulating a 10-year development strategy for the SCO, making a political decision to establish the SCO Development Bank, and setting up six practical cooperation platforms [11]. Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report also includes data on stock index futures, stock index options, and Treasury bond futures, but the specific data is not provided in the text [12][16][28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of supply disruptions in the new energy metals market is fluctuating, leading to wide - ranging price oscillations. In the short and medium term, rising costs support prices, while supply expectation fluctuations and capital games amplify price volatility. In the long term, the supply of silicon is expected to shrink, potentially raising the price level, while the increasing supply of lithium carbonate will limit the upside of lithium prices [2]. - For industrial silicon, supply is continuously increasing, capping the upside of silicon prices. For polysilicon, the expectation of policy implementation is rising, causing prices to rebound. For lithium carbonate, the unexpected surge in supply is pressuring prices [3]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: Supply is continuously rising, restricting the upside of silicon prices. The short - term price will continue to fluctuate due to macro sentiment and coal prices. If large - scale restarts occur, prices may be suppressed [6][7]. - **Information Analysis**: As of September 1st, the spot prices of industrial silicon fluctuated. The domestic inventory decreased by 0.3% month - on - month. In July 2025, the monthly output increased by 3.2% month - on - month but decreased by 30.6% year - on - year. The export volume in July increased by 8.3% month - on - month and 36.7% year - on - year. The domestic photovoltaic new installation in July decreased by 23.1% month - on - month and 47.6% year - on - year [6]. - **Main Logic**: The supply pressure mainly comes from the northwest. In September, the output in the southwest is expected to be stable, and the incremental supply will mainly come from large northwest plants. Demand shows some improvement, but the inventory and warehouse receipts are expected to accumulate [7]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: The expectation of policy implementation is rising, leading to a rebound in polysilicon prices. The anti - cut - throat competition policy significantly boosts prices, but attention should be paid to policy implementation. If the policy expectation fades, prices may reverse [7][10]. - **Information Analysis**: The transaction price of N - type re -投料 is stable. The number of warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange remains unchanged. In July, the export volume decreased by 3.92% month - on - month and 63.14% year - on - year, while the import volume increased by 5.11% month - on - month. The domestic photovoltaic new installation from January to July 2025 increased by 81% year - on - year [7][8]. - **Main Logic**: The anti - cut - throat competition sentiment is rising, but the supply and demand situation still faces pressure. The demand may weaken in the future, and price volatility has increased [10]. 3.1.3 Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: The unexpected surge in supply is pressuring lithium prices. In the short term, supply and demand are in a tight balance, and prices are expected to fluctuate widely [10][11]. - **Information Analysis**: On September 1st, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased by 2.1%, and the total open interest decreased. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts increased [10][11]. - **Main Logic**: The initial shock of the mine shutdown has passed, and the market is back to the stage of speculating on mine shutdowns. The supply is increasing, and the demand is expected to rise in September. The shortage is not obvious, and the market is focused on anti - cut - throat competition sentiment and potential disruptions [11]. 3.2 Market Monitoring The content only lists the headings for industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate under market monitoring, without specific information. 3.3 Commodity Index - On September 1st, 2025, the comprehensive index of the CITIC Futures Commodity Index is not detailed. The special indices include the Commodity Index (2212.10, - 0.02%), the Commodity 20 Index (2466.23, + 0.08%), and the Industrial Products Index (2227.31, - 0.73%). - The new energy commodity index on September 1st, 2025, had a daily increase of 0.94%, a 5 - day decrease of 1.28%, a 1 - month increase of 6.66%, and a year - to - date decrease of 2.57% [53][55].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The rise of precious metals on September 1st was driven by macro - policy expectations and political risks. The Fed's potential interest - rate cut and concerns about the Fed's independence boosted the prices of gold and silver. Looking ahead, the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and political intervention risks will remain the core contradictions in the market [1][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs A. Price Performance - On September 1st, gold and silver prices rose significantly. The Shanghai gold main contract rose 2.08% intraday, the COMEX gold price hit a record high, and the London spot gold price approached $3500 per ounce. The Shanghai silver main contract soared 4.16%, and both COMEX silver and London silver reached their highest levels since 2012 [3]. B. Driving Factors - The rise was due to dual drivers of macro - policy expectations and political risks. Fed Chair Powell's dovish stance at the Jackson Hole meeting increased the market's expectation of a restarted interest - rate cut cycle in September. Trump's intention to dismiss Fed Chair Cook and control the Fed raised concerns about central - bank independence, enhancing the safe - haven appeal of precious metals. Also, the US Geological Survey's plan to list silver as a critical mineral led to tariff concerns, boosting silver's performance [3]. C. Market Outlook - The Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and political intervention risks will remain the core contradictions. Technically, the next target for gold is $3900 - $4000, and silver may challenge the $49 - $50 historical high [3]. D. Key Data to Watch - In the coming week, focus on US labor - market data, ISM manufacturing and services PMI data. The weekly range for London gold is [3350, 3600], and for London silver is [38, 42] [6]. E. Index Performance - On September 1st, the commodity index was 2212.10 (-0.02%), the commodity 20 index was 2466.23 (+0.08%), and the industrial products index was 2227.31 (-0.73%). The precious metals index on September 1st had a daily increase of 2.63%, a 5 - day increase of 3.10%, a 1 - month increase of 4.16%, and a year - to - date increase of 27.38% [43][45].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "volatile" [6][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17] Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the steel industry's steady - growth plan emphasizing crude steel reduction and the approaching military parade leading to production restrictions, the black building materials sector is still subject to short - term disturbances. After the military parade, with low inventory in the industrial chain and restocking demand, there is a driving force for price rebounds. However, weak terminal demand during the peak season may limit the upside space [1][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Situation of the Black Building Materials Industry - The steel industry's steady - growth plan emphasizes crude steel reduction, and the approaching military parade restricts production. This has a negative impact on the demand for furnace materials, causing the prices of coal, coke, and ore to decline during the day, which in turn drags down steel prices. At night, the sector remains under pressure. After the military parade, steel mills are expected to resume production, and with the pre - National Day restocking demand, the sector may rise [1] 2. Iron Element - Supply: Overseas mine shipments and arrivals at 45 ports increased month - on - month as expected [2][9] - Demand: Iron water production decreased slightly. As the military parade approaches, steel mills in Hebei will gradually enter maintenance, and iron water production is expected to decline, but the impact is limited. After the military parade, iron ore demand may return to a high level [2][9] - Inventory: This week, iron ore ports reduced inventory, the number of ships at berth increased, factory inventories decreased, and the total inventory decreased slightly. The fundamentals are supportive, and the price is expected to fluctuate [2][9] - Scrap steel: The fundamentals of scrap steel have no prominent contradictions. The pressure on finished product prices has led to low EAF profits, but resources are still tight. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2][10] 3. Carbon Element - Coke: As the military parade approaches, coke production restrictions are stronger than those of steel mills. In the short term, the coke supply remains tight. Although price increases are difficult to implement, prices are supported before the military parade. After the military parade, the recovery of iron water production needs to be monitored [2][11] - Coking coal: Before the military parade, the coking coal market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The short - term fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the downward price space is expected to be limited [2][11] 4. Alloys - Manganese silicon: Currently, the inventory pressure of manganese silicon manufacturers is acceptable, and the cost side still supports prices in the short term. However, the future market supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and prices are under significant downward pressure in the medium - to - long term. Attention should be paid to the reduction range of raw material costs [2][16] - Ferrosilicon: The current inventory pressure of ferrosilicon manufacturers is not large, and the cost side still supports prices in the short term. However, the future market supply - demand relationship will become looser, and the price center will tend to decline in the medium - to - long term. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of power costs in major production areas [2][17] 5. Glass - The current demand for glass is weak, but policy expectations are strong, and raw material prices are high. After trading the delivery contradictions, the far - month contracts still offer a premium. In the medium - to - long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed. If prices return to fundamental trading, they are expected to decline with fluctuations [3][12][13] 6. Soda Ash - The oversupply situation of soda ash has not changed. After the decline in the futures market, spot - futures trading volume increased slightly. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the future. In the long term, the price center will decline, driving capacity reduction [3][15] 7. Specific Product Analysis - Steel: The inventory is continuously accumulating, and the futures market is weak. Before and after the military parade, both supply and demand will be affected. In the short term, the futures market may continue to adjust weakly. After the military parade, the release of restocking demand during the peak season may support prices [8] - Iron ore: Shipments and arrivals increased, and port inventory decreased slightly. The demand is at a high level, and the supply and inventory are stable. The fundamentals are supportive, and the price is expected to fluctuate [9] - Scrap steel: The supply decreased, and the demand from both EAF and blast furnaces declined. The inventory decreased slightly, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [10] - Coke: It is difficult to implement price increases, and the supply has tightened. Before the military parade, the price is supported, and after the military parade, the recovery of iron water production needs to be monitored [11] - Coking coal: The supply has tightened, and the market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand. The price is expected to remain stable before the military parade [11] - Glass: The mid - stream sales pressure has squeezed the upstream production and sales. The fundamentals are weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term and decline in the medium - to - long term [12][13] - Soda ash: The supply has been slightly disturbed, and the inventory has decreased rapidly. The oversupply situation remains unchanged, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term and decline in the long term [15] - Manganese silicon: The black chain declined, and the futures price was weak. The short - term cost support remains, but the medium - to - long - term price has significant downward pressure [16] - Ferrosilicon: Market confidence is insufficient, and the futures price center has moved down. The short - term cost support remains, but the medium - to - long - term price center will tend to decline [17]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overseas: The US macro - fundamentals are stable, but political pressure on the Fed has raised market expectations of interest rate cuts. The dovish stance of Powell at the global central bank annual meeting and Trump's dismissal of a hawkish Fed governor have pushed up these expectations. However, service inflation stickiness, tariff shocks, and concerns about Fed independence are tail - risks. The overseas liquidity is expected to expand in the next 1 - 2 quarters, entering a "loose expectation + weak dollar" repair channel, which may support the recovery of total demand [7]. - Domestic: Market expectations for corporate profit margins have improved, and the "anti - involution" has promoted the continued improvement of mid - stream profits in July. Recent demand - side policies in first - tier cities may increase trading volume, but the sustainability needs to be observed. After the important events in early September, China may enter the verification period of the seasonal peak of fixed - asset investment and consumption, and the fundamentals may play a more important role in asset pricing, especially for short - duration commodity assets [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The US macro - fundamentals are stable. Political pressure on the Fed has reached a new high, increasing market expectations of interest rate cuts. The dovishness of Powell at the August global central bank annual meeting and Trump's dismissal of a hawkish Fed governor on August 25 have further pushed up these expectations. US consumers' willingness to buy real estate, cars, and household durables is fluctuating at a low level, and real wage growth is flat. Service inflation stickiness, tariff shocks, and concerns about Fed independence are tail - risks [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: Market expectations for corporate profit margins have improved. The "anti - involution" has led to better mid - stream profits in July. From January to July, the year - on - year decline in the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size has narrowed to - 1.7%. First - tier cities have introduced demand - side policies, but the overall policy strength is relatively weak, with more relaxation for new houses in suburban areas of core cities [7]. - **Asset Views**: Short - term market volatility may increase in early September in China. After important events, China may enter the verification period of the seasonal peak of fixed - asset investment and consumption, and the fundamentals may have a greater impact on asset pricing. Overseas, liquidity is expected to expand in the next 1 - 2 quarters, entering a "loose expectation + weak dollar" repair channel, which may support non - dollar assets [7]. 2. View Highlights Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: V - shaped rebound and high - level oscillation. The short - term judgment is oscillatory upward, with attention to the decline of incremental funds [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: Hold bull spreads following the market. The short - term judgment is oscillatory upward, with attention to the deterioration of option market liquidity [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The yield curve steepens. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to unexpected tariff changes, supply, and monetary easing [8]. Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The US interest rate cut cycle may restart in September, but the impact of market risk appetite needs to be considered. The short - term judgment is oscillatory upward, with attention to US fundamentals, Fed monetary policy, and global equity market trends [8]. Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter is fading, and there is a lack of upward drivers. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to the rate of freight decline in September [8]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Supply - demand contradictions are accumulating, and the futures market is weak. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and hot metal production [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Hot metal production is decreasing, and inventory is being depleted. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to overseas mine production and shipping, domestic hot metal production, weather, port inventory, and policy dynamics [8]. - **Coke**: The eighth - round negotiation continues, and supply is tightening. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply is tightening, and there is no inventory pressure. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply and demand are becoming more relaxed, and attention is paid to cost adjustments. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to raw material costs and steel procurement [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Supply pressure is accumulating, and the futures market is under pressure. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - **Glass**: Supply is still increasing, and peak - season demand needs to be verified. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to spot sales [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply fluctuates slightly, and the expectation of oversupply remains. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to soda ash inventory [8]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The suspension of tariffs between China and the US has been extended, and copper prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness of the Fed, and less - than - expected recovery of domestic demand [8]. - **Alumina**: The spot market is weakly stable, and warehouse receipts are increasing. Alumina prices are under pressure and oscillating. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to unexpected delays in ore复产 and unexpected increases in electrolytic aluminum复产 [8]. - **Aluminum**: Social inventory is slightly accumulating, and aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [8]. - **Zinc**: The decline in black - series prices has led to a decline in zinc prices. The short - term judgment is oscillatory downward, with attention to macro - turning risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply [8]. - **Lead**: Consumption is still unclear, and lead prices are oscillating downward. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to supply - side disruptions and slowdown in battery exports [8]. - **Nickel**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and nickel prices are oscillating widely. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and unexpected delays in supply release [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: The continuous increase in nickel - iron prices has led to a correction in the stainless - steel futures market. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to Indonesian policy risks and unexpected increases in demand [8]. - **Tin**: Raw material supply is still tight, and tin prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to the expected复产 in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Coal prices are fluctuating, and silicon prices are continuously changing. The short - term judgment is oscillatory upward, with attention to unexpected production cuts on the supply side and unexpected increases in photovoltaic installations [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The multi - empty game continues, and prices are oscillating widely. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [8]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure continues, and the sustainability of the rebound is expected to be limited. The short - term judgment is oscillatory downward, with attention to OPEC+ production policies and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [10]. - **LPG**: The cracking spread is stabilizing, and attention is paid to cost - side guidance. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to the progress of cost - side factors such as crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - **Asphalt**: Shandong spot prices have declined, and asphalt futures prices are oscillating. The short - term judgment is downward, with attention to sanctions and supply disruptions [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical tensions have met with an increase in warehouse receipts, and fuel oil prices first rose and then fell. The short - term judgment is downward, with attention to geopolitical factors and crude oil prices [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices are following crude oil prices and oscillating downward. The short - term judgment is downward, with attention to crude oil prices [10]. - **Methanol**: Port inventory is accumulating, and olefin prices are falling. Methanol prices are oscillating downward. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to macro - energy and upstream and downstream device dynamics [10]. - **Urea**: Domestic supply and demand are mainly loose, waiting for the recovery of autumn demand and the release of exports. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to the actual implementation of exports [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The low - inventory fundamentals are competing with macro sentiment, and the downward support is relatively strong. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to coal and oil price fluctuations, port inventory rhythm, and unexpected device shutdowns [10]. - **PX**: The market atmosphere has cooled, and there is insufficient upward support. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to significant crude oil price fluctuations, macro - level changes, and less - than - expected peak seasons [10]. - **PTA**: The terminal market atmosphere has cooled slightly, but the tight supply - demand situation still supports prices. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to significant crude oil price fluctuations, macro - level changes, and less - than - expected peak seasons [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: The downstream is in a wait - and - see mood, and the peak - season performance needs to be verified. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to the downstream yarn - mill purchasing rhythm and unexpected device load reduction [10]. - **Bottle Chip**: Mainstream large - scale manufacturers continue to reduce production, and there is a possibility of further reduction. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to unexpected increases in bottle - chip enterprise production and a surge in overseas export orders [10]. - **Propylene**: It mainly follows PP fluctuations in the short term. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to oil prices and the domestic macro - situation [10]. - **PP**: The pressure of new production capacity is increasing, and PP prices are oscillating weakly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [10]. - **Plastic**: The fundamental support is limited, and plastic prices are oscillating downward. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [10]. - **Styrene**: The commodity sentiment has improved, and attention is paid to the implementation of policy details. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [10]. - **PVC**: The weak reality is suppressing, and PVC prices are running weakly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price rebound has slowed down, and caustic soda prices are oscillating temporarily. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to market sentiment, production start - up, and demand [10]. Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: There may still be a need for short - term adjustment, and attention is paid to the effectiveness of the lower - level technical support. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10]. - **Protein Meal**: The release of state reserves has pushed down soybean meal prices, and point - price trading is expected to keep prices oscillating within a range. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to US soybean weather, domestic demand, the macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: Traders are pre - stocking, and sentiment should not be overly pessimistic. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to less - than - expected demand, the macro - situation, and weather [10]. - **Pig**: The supply is expected to be abundant, and futures prices are oscillating at a low level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. - **Rubber**: The overall trend is relatively strong. The short - term judgment is oscillatory upward, with attention to production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It has rebounded to the previous high and is following the trend. The short - term judgment is oscillatory upward, with attention to significant crude oil price fluctuations [10]. - **Pulp**: There is a differentiation between near - and far - term contracts, and the main pulp contract is weak. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - based quotes [10]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton has significantly reduced positions, and cotton prices have declined within a range. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to demand and inventory [10]. - **Sugar**: The driving force is downward, but the short - term downward space is limited. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, with attention to imports [10]. - **Log**: The delivery pressure is still large, and log prices are weakly adjusting. The short - term judgment is oscillatory downward, with attention to shipment volume and shipping volume [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a mid - term outlook for various black building materials, mostly rated as "oscillating". The specific ratings for each variety are as follows: - Steel: Oscillating [8] - Iron ore: Oscillating [9] - Scrap steel: Oscillating [10] - Coke: Oscillating [11] - Coking coal: Oscillating [12] - Glass: Oscillating [14] - Soda ash: Oscillating [18] - Manganese silicon: Oscillating [19] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [20] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy's mention of stabilizing the growth of the steel industry had a limited positive impact, and the futures market showed a muted reaction. The overall black building materials market is expected to oscillate, with potential for a slight rebound if there are positive drivers. Attention should be paid to the demand performance in the coming weeks and the recovery of furnace material supply [1][2]. - The black building materials market's cost has some support, but the expected weak demand during the peak season restricts the upside potential. The market will continue to be affected by factors such as the implementation of policies and the performance of terminal demand [6]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Steel - Core logic: The steel industry's growth - stabilizing plan has led to a slight increase in the futures price. Steel spot trading is average, with more low - price transactions. This week, some steel mills resumed production and increased output, resulting in an increase in rebar production and stable hot - rolled coil production. During the transition between the off - season and peak season, rebar's apparent demand has improved month - on - month but is still lower year - on - year, and inventory continues to accumulate. The demand for hot - rolled coils remains resilient, and inventory also accumulates under high production. The apparent demand for medium - thick plates and cold - rolled products has weakened, and inventory has increased. The supply and demand of the five major steel products have both increased, and inventory has continued to accumulate [8]. - Outlook: During the off - season to peak - season transition, steel inventory continues to accumulate, and the market is cautious about the peak - season demand. Supply and demand will be affected around the military parade, and the impact of blast furnace production restrictions may be reflected in next week's data. After the parade, pig iron production may remain at a high level, and the cost side still has some support. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate widely in the short term. Focus on steel mill production restrictions and terminal demand [8]. 3.2 Iron Ore - Core logic: Port trading volume decreased slightly. The spot market prices increased, and port trading volume decreased. Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports slightly declined, approaching last year's level. Total supply is relatively stable. Pig iron production decreased slightly, and there is an expectation of a decline in pig iron production as some steel mills in Hebei enter maintenance at the end of the month, but the impact is limited. After the parade, iron ore demand may return to a high level. This week, port inventory decreased, berthing increased, and factory inventory decreased, resulting in a slight decline in total inventory [3][8]. - Outlook: With high iron ore demand, stable supply and inventory, and limited negative fundamental drivers, the price is expected to oscillate in the future [9]. 3.3 Scrap Steel - Core logic: The arrival volume of scrap steel decreased month - on - month this week. Due to the pressure on finished products, the profit of electric arc furnaces is low, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in electric arc furnaces and blast furnaces has decreased. Factory inventory has slightly decreased, and the available inventory days are at a low level [10]. - Outlook: The fundamental contradictions of scrap steel are not prominent. Although the profit of electric arc furnaces is low due to the pressure on finished product prices, resources are still tight. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the short term [10]. 3.4 Coke - Core logic: In the futures market, the implementation of the steel growth - stabilizing plan and the ongoing negotiation of the eighth round of price increases have led to an oscillating market. In the spot market, the price in Rizhao Port decreased. As the military parade approaches, the production of some coking enterprises is restricted, while others maintain normal production. Downstream steel mills have good profits and high production willingness, but due to the military parade, the production of some steel mills in North China will be restricted, and transportation is tightened, resulting in low inventory in local steel mills and common rush - order situations. Some coking enterprises have started to accumulate inventory, but overall, the upstream coking enterprise inventory is still at a low level [11]. - Outlook: As the military parade approaches, the production restrictions on coke are stronger than those on steel mills. In the short term, the coke market will remain tight. Although it is difficult for the eighth round of price increases to be implemented, the futures price will still be supported before the parade [11]. 3.5 Coking Coal - Core logic: In the futures market, due to the tightening of coal mine safety supervision before the military parade and the implementation of the steel growth - stabilizing plan, the market oscillates. In the spot market, the price of some coking coal decreased. On the supply side, the production of some coal mines is restricted due to accidents and other factors, and safety inspections are increasing. Some coal mines have voluntarily reduced production, resulting in a tightening of coal mine production before the parade. On the import side, the average daily customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port remains high, and the impact of the military parade is currently limited. On the demand side, the eighth round of coke price increases has started, with regional differences. Coking production in some areas is restricted, and the short - term rigid demand for coking coal has slightly decreased. Downstream enterprises are mainly purchasing on - demand, and spot trading is weak and stable. Some coal mines have started to accumulate inventory, but overall, the previous inventory reduction to a low level and a large number of pre - sold orders mean that there is no obvious inventory pressure for now [3][12]. - Outlook: Before the military parade, the coking coal market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. Short - term fundamental contradictions are not prominent. Although it is difficult for the eighth round of coke price increases to be implemented, the futures price will still be supported before the parade [12]. 3.6 Glass - Core logic: The spot price is stable. The demand in the off - season has decreased, but the deep - processing orders have increased month - on - month, and the inventory days of raw glass have increased significantly to a high level this year. Downstream has limited ability to replenish inventory. As the traditional peak season approaches, some upstream manufacturers are promoting sales by raising prices, and downstream purchasing has stabilized overall. On the supply side, a new production line has been ignited recently, and there are still production lines to be ignited in Shahe. The daily melting volume is expected to increase steadily. As the delivery approaches, the spot price has decreased, and the delivery logic is becoming more dominant. The fundamentals are still weak, and the reverse - spread logic is still stable. It is expected that the futures and spot prices will oscillate widely in the short term [14]. - Outlook: The actual demand is weak, but the policy expectation is strong, and the raw material price is strong. After the delivery contradiction trading, the far - month contract still has a premium. In the long term, capacity reduction through marketization is still needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [16][17]. 3.7 Soda Ash - Core logic: The price of heavy soda ash delivered to Shahe decreased. The sentiment in the domestic commodity market is weakening, and as the delivery approaches, the fundamental logic returns, with a neutral macro - environment. On the supply side, the production capacity has not been cleared, and long - term pressure remains. In the short term, the production in Alxa is affected, but it is expected that both production capacity and output will increase in the future. On the demand side, heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid - demand purchasing. There are still some production lines that have not produced glass, and the daily melting volume of float glass is expected to be stable, while the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has bottomed out and rebounded. The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to increase steadily. The downstream purchasing of light soda ash has remained flat, but the overall downstream inventory - replenishment sentiment is weak, and there is resistance to high prices. As the shipping problem is resolved, the inventory in the middle reaches has accumulated, and the downstream willingness to receive goods is weak. The futures price may return to fundamental trading [18]. - Outlook: The oversupply situation has not changed. After the futures price decline, spot trading has increased slightly. It is expected that the price will oscillate widely in the future. In the long term, the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [18]. 3.8 Manganese Silicon - Core logic: The futures price of manganese silicon first declined weakly and then oscillated upward. In the spot market, a new round of steel procurement has started, and the market is waiting and watching. The spot price adjustment is small. The October manganese ore price quote is flat month - on - month. Recently, port trading has been sluggish, but miners are reluctant to reduce prices, and port ore prices have not fluctuated much. On the demand side, steel mills' profits are good, and finished product production is still at a high level. As the military parade approaches, steel production will decline slightly, but in September, as the peak season begins and after the parade, finished product production is expected to increase. On the supply side, manganese silicon production has reached a high level this year, and market supply pressure is gradually accumulating [19]. - Outlook: The current market inventory pressure is temporarily controllable. Due to cost support, the short - term decline in manganese silicon prices is limited. However, as the market supply - demand relationship becomes looser, there is still downward pressure on prices in the long term. Pay attention to the reduction in raw material costs [19]. 3.9 Ferrosilicon - Core logic: The futures price of ferrosilicon continued to decline. In the spot market, trading was weak, but manufacturers were reluctant to sell at low prices, and the spot price adjustment was small. On the supply side, manufacturers' resumption of production has accelerated recently, and ferrosilicon production has gradually reached a high level. On the demand side, steel production has remained stable at a high level, and the steel - making demand for ferrosilicon still has some resilience. As the military parade approaches, steel production will decline, but in the peak season, finished product production will gradually increase. In the metal magnesium market, supply pressure has increased, while demand is still weak, and the magnesium ingot price is under pressure [20]. - Outlook: The current market inventory pressure is not large. Due to cost support, the short - term downward adjustment space for ferrosilicon prices is limited. However, the future market supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and in the long term, the price center will tend to decline. Pay attention to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs in major production areas [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Oscillating [5] - Alumina: Oscillating weakly [7] - Aluminum: Oscillating [7] - Aluminum Alloy: Oscillating [9] - Zinc: Oscillating weakly [12] - Lead: Oscillating [13] - Nickel: Oscillating [16] - Stainless Steel: Oscillating [21] - Tin: Oscillating [22] 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is influenced by the weak US dollar and tariff games, with base metals oscillating. In the short - to - medium term, the weak US dollar supports prices, but the weak demand expectation makes it uncertain whether the inventory will decrease in the peak season in September. In the long term, potential incremental stimulus policies in China and supply disturbances support base metal prices [1]. - For different metals, their prices are affected by various factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - Information: Powell's dovish speech increases the probability of a Fed rate cut in September. The consumer confidence index in the US declined in August. China's electrolytic copper production increased in July. The spot copper price had a certain premium, and the inventory increased slightly [5]. - Logic: The dovish Fed speech boosts copper prices. The supply of raw materials is tight, and the downstream demand is in the off - season, but the inventory accumulation is not obvious. Low inventory supports copper prices in the short term [5]. - Outlook: Copper may oscillate due to supply constraints, low inventory, weakening demand, and the impact of US tariffs [6]. 3.1.2 Alumina - Information: The spot price of alumina declined on August 28, and the warehouse receipt increased [6]. - Logic: The smelter's profit is good, the operating capacity is at a high level, the supply - demand balance shows an obvious surplus, and the inventory accumulation trend expands. The price is expected to oscillate under pressure [7]. - Outlook: Oscillate weakly, and consider short - selling opportunities on rallies [7]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - Information: The price of aluminum declined on August 28, the inventory of aluminum rods and electrolytic aluminum ingots increased, and the warehouse receipt decreased slightly. Some aluminum - related companies' performance in the first half of 2025 showed growth [8]. - Logic: The expectation of a US rate cut weakens the US dollar. The supply capacity is high, the demand is expected to improve as the peak season approaches, but the terminal consumption is not strong. The inventory accumulates, and the spot is at a discount. The price is expected to oscillate [9]. - Outlook: Oscillate in the short term, and the consumption and inventory accumulation need to be observed [9]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - Information: The price of ADC12 remained unchanged on August 28, the price of AOO aluminum declined, and the difference between them increased. The exchange adjusted the margin and price limit of cast aluminum alloy futures [9]. - Logic: The short - term supply - demand is weak. The cost is supported by the price of scrap aluminum. The supply side's production decreased, and the demand side's procurement is cautious. The factory inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased. Consider cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [10]. - Outlook: ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 will oscillate at a low level in the short term and may rise in the future [10]. 3.1.5 Zinc - Information: The spot zinc price had a discount on August 28, and the inventory increased [12]. - Logic: The macro - situation is neutral. The supply of zinc ore is loose, the smelter's profit is good, and the production willingness is strong. The demand is in the off - season, and the overall demand expectation is average. The price may oscillate at a high level in the short term and decline in the long term [12]. - Outlook: The zinc price will oscillate weakly in the long term, and the inventory may continue to accumulate in August [12]. 3.1.6 Lead - Information: The price of waste batteries and lead ingots declined on August 28, and the social inventory decreased slightly. The transportation was restricted, and some regenerative lead enterprises were under maintenance [13]. - Logic: The spot discount is stable, the supply of waste batteries decreases, the production of lead ingots decreases slightly, and the demand for lead - acid batteries increases slightly. The price is expected to oscillate [14]. - Outlook: The lead price will oscillate due to the increase in demand and the possible decrease in supply, but the incomplete recovery of the battery enterprise's operating rate also puts pressure on the price [14]. 3.1.7 Nickel - Information: The LME nickel inventory increased, and the domestic warehouse receipt decreased slightly. There were many events in the nickel industry, such as business sales and policy adjustments [16]. - Logic: The market sentiment dominates the market, the industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally, the supply of raw materials may be loose, the production of intermediate products recovers, the price of nickel salt weakens slightly, and the inventory accumulates. The price should be traded short - term [19]. - Outlook: The nickel price will oscillate in the short term and be observed in the long term [19]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - Information: The stainless steel warehouse receipt decreased, the spot price had a premium, and the price of nickel pig iron increased. The price of Indonesian domestic trade ore is expected to decline slightly [21]. - Logic: The price of nickel iron rises, the price of chrome iron is stable, the production of stainless steel decreases, the social inventory accumulates slightly, and the warehouse receipt decreases. The price is expected to oscillate [21]. - Outlook: The stainless steel price may oscillate in the short term, and pay attention to the changes in inventory and cost [21]. 3.1.9 Tin - Information: The warehouse receipt of LME and Shanghai tin decreased, and the spot price declined slightly [22]. - Logic: The supply of tin ore is tight, the production and export of tin in some regions are unstable, the smelting start - up rate is low, and the terminal demand weakens marginally. The price has a support at the bottom but lacks upward momentum [22]. - Outlook: The tin price will oscillate, and the volatility may increase in August [22]. 3.2行情监测 The report only lists the names of different metals for monitoring, but no specific monitoring content is provided [25][39][51]. 3.3 Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, specialty index (including commodity 20 index and industrial product index), and sector index (non - ferrous metal index) of CITIC Futures are presented. The specialty index increased slightly, and the non - ferrous metal index decreased by 0.22% on August 28 but increased by 0.28% in the past 5 days, 0.45% in the past month, and 2.89% since the beginning of the year [137][139].